farhi holdings corporation employment lands review · addion, the redevelopment of the subject site...

FARHI HOLDINGS CORPORATIONEmployment Lands Review1600 Lauzon Road

July 2019 – 17-6415

FARHI HOLDINGS CORPORATIONEmployment Lands ReviewJuly 2019 – 17-6415

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Table of ContentsExecutive Summary

1.0 Introduction 1

1.1 Purpose of the Employment Lands Review .......................................................................... 3

2.0 Planning Policy Context 4

2.1 Provincial Policy Context...................................................................................................... 4

2.1.1 Section 1: Building Strong and Healthy Communities ........................................................... 4

2.1.2 Section 1.3 Employment Policies ......................................................................................... 5

2.1.3 Section 1:4: Housing ............................................................................................................ 6

2.2 Local Policy Context ............................................................................................................. 6

2.2.1 City of Windsor Official Plan ................................................................................................ 6

3.0 Data Analysis Context 9

3.1.1 City of Windsor - Employment Projections & Employment Land Needs Analysis – EDPConsulting (2008) ................................................................................................................ 9

3.1.2 Windsor-Essex & City of Windsor Population and Housing Projections 2006-2031 –Lapointe Consulting Inc. (2008) ......................................................................................... 12

3.1.3 City of Windsor – Land Needs Analysis Report – Dillon Consulting (2009) .......................... 12

3.1.4 County of Essex Employment Land Needs Analysis – Jones Consulting Group Ltd.(2011) ............................................................................................................................... 13

4.0 Macro-Economic and Employment Trends 14

4.1 Global Economic Trends .................................................................................................... 14

4.2 Ontario’s Shifting Economic Structure ............................................................................... 14

4.2.1 Ontario Economic Outlook within the Canadian Context.................................................... 14

4.2.2 Outlook for Provincial and Regional Manufacturing Sectors ............................................... 16

4.3 Regional Employment Trends ............................................................................................ 17

4.3.1 Windsor CMA Labour Force Trends, 2001 to 2016 ............................................................. 17

4.4 Planning for Growth in the City of Windsor ........................................................................ 18

4.4.1 City of Windsor Population Forecast to 2031 ..................................................................... 18

4.4.2 How does Population Growth Impact Demand for Employment Lands? ............................. 19

5.0 Forecast Demand on Employment Lands 20

5.1 City-Wide Employment Growth Forecast ........................................................................... 20

5.2 Employment Density on Employment Lands ...................................................................... 21


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5.3 Employment Land Demand Forecast, 2006 to 2026 ........................................................... 22

6.0 Employment Land Supply 24

6.1 Employment Land Supply Methodology............................................................................. 24

6.2 Employment Land Inventory .............................................................................................. 25

6.2.1 MHBC Background Report – County Road 42 Secondary Plan ............................................ 26

7.0 Requested Employment Land Conversion 29

7.1 Approach ........................................................................................................................... 29

7.2 Evaluation ......................................................................................................................... 29

7.2.1 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 30

7.2.2 Assessment of the Privately-Initiated Conversion Request ................................................. 30

7.3 Recommendation .............................................................................................................. 30

Figures

1.1 Loca on of Subject Site – 1600 Lauzon Road, Windsor .......................................................... 1

1.2 Surrounding Land Uses of Subject Site – 1600 Lauzon Road, Windsor ................................... 2

2.1 Employment Land Context (Official Plan Designa ons) ......................................................... 7

4.1 Annual Real GDP Growth, Ontario and Canada Historical (2006 to 2015) and Forecast

(2016 to 2017) .................................................................................................................... 15

4.2 Ontario Employment, 2016 ................................................................................................. 16

4.3 Manufacturing Labour Force Employment in Ontario, 2000 to Early 2017 ........................... 17

4.4 Windsor CMA Labour Force by Major Sector, 2001 to 2016 ................................................ 18

6.1 Vacant Employment Lands Supply – Dillon Consul ng, 2018 ............................................... 25

6.2 Vacant Employment Lands Supply – City of Windsor, 2017 ................................................. 27

Tables

3.1 Employment Projec ons, 2006 to 2026 – EDP Consul ng, 2008 ............................................... 9

3.2 Distribu on of Jobs, ‘Base Case’ Employment Growth Projec on, 2006 to 2026 .................... 10

3.3 Es mated New Jobs on Employment Lands in Windsor – EDP Consul ng, 2008 ..................... 11

3.4 Popula on Projec ons, 2006 to 2031, Lapointe Consul ng Inc., 2008 .................................... 12

3.5 Exis ng Es mated Excess Supply of Non-Residen al Land, County of Essex ........................... 13

5.1 Distribu on of Jobs, ‘Base Case’ Employment Growth Project, 2006 to 2026

EDP Consul ng, 2008 ............................................................................................................. 22

5.2 Es mated New Jobs on Employment Lands in Windsor – EDP Consul ng, 2008 ..................... 23


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Tables (cont’d)

6.1 Employment Land Supply Methodology ................................................................................. 24

6.2 Summary of Vacant Employment Lands Supply – Dillon Consul ng, 2018 .............................. 26

6.3 Summary of Vacant Employment Lands Supply – City of Windsor, 2017 ................................. 27


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Executive SummaryThis Employment Lands Review report has been prepared in support of the proposed employment lands conversion at the former LEAR property, located at 1600 Lauzon Road, Windsor. The report is intended to address the privately-ini ated transi on of the 25.58 hectares (63.20 acres) subject site to more suitable and appropriate land use designa ons to permit the proposed redevelopment of the lands. The land conversion proposal is intended to alter the exis ng Industrial land use designa on of the subject site to various other land use designa ons, including Residen al, Commercial, and Ins tu onal uses.

A thorough assessment of Provincial and local policies pertaining to employment land conversions is presented in this Employment Lands Review Report to verify conformity of the proposed conversion, including the City of Windsor Official Plan. The report is further augmented by various companion reports which support the proposed employment land conversion, including forecasted employment growth and employment lands needs over the 2006 - 2026 planning period. In addi on, a visual analysis of the vacant employment lands supply in the City of Windsor is conducted to assess whether the employment lands of the subject site are surplus to the supply required by the City of Windsor over the 20 year planning period.

The forecasted data indicates that the City of Windsor will experience employment growth of roughly 21,140 jobs over the subject planning period, represen ng an approximate growth of 0.9% annually up un l the year 2026. Accordingly, the data indicates that the City of Windsor will require approximately 400 to 500 net hectares of employment lands to meet demand from employment growth over this me period. Our analysis of the current vacant employment land supply within the City of Windsor indicates that there are roughly 1,007 hectares (2,488.35 acres) of vacant employment lands throughout the City. Further analysis conducted in the abu ng municipali es of Essex County demonstrates that there is also an over-supply of employment lands in the region. In this regard, the analysis conducted within this Employment Lands Review report provides valida on for the proposed conversion of the 25.58 hectares (63.20 acres) subject lands, and serves to demonstrate that the proposed conversion will have negligible impacts to the supply of employment lands in the City of Windsor.

The long standing vacancy and underu liza on of the subject site demonstrates that the lands are no longer appropriate and desirable for industrial uses. The proposed employment lands conversion will alter the land use designa on of the subject site and enhance compa bility with surrounding uses. In addi on, the redevelopment of the subject site is an cipated to benefit the surrounding community by permi ng for the infill development and revitaliza on of a prominent brownfield property in the City’s east end. As such, this Employment Lands Review Report demonstrates that the proposed Employment Lands conversion of the former LEAR property at 1600 Lauzon Road represents good planning.


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1.0 IntroductionThe City of Windsor (“City”) is currently undertaking an Official Plan Review (“OPR”) to provide updated policies for the City of Windsor Official Plan (“Windsor OP”). This process will include, amongst other studies, a Land Needs Analysis. However, the ming of the proposed redevelopment of the former LEAR property at 1600 Lauzon Road (see Figure 1-1) requires the private land owner to work in consulta on with the City of Windsor ahead of the comple on of the formal OPR. This Employment Lands Review Report is intended to address the privately-ini ated conversion of Employment Lands at 1600 Lauzon Road to more suitable and appropriate land use designa ons, including residen al, commercial, and ins tu onal uses. The report provides analysis of forecasted employment growth and employment lands needs to assess the proposed conversion of employment lands of the subject site.

Figure 1.1: Loca on of Subject Site – 1600 Lauzon Road, Windsor

The subject lands are the site of the former General Motors Trim Plant, constructed in 1965 for the assembly of automobile sea ng. The plant was sold to the LEAR Corpora on in 1999, however opera ons ceased in 2008 due to a decline in business. Subsequent demoli on of all buildings on-site commenced in 2009, and the lands have remained vacant and underu lized to this day.


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The subject site is currently designated Industrial in the City of Windsor Official Plan, which permits for employment uses as a primary func on. The privately-ini ated conversions of Employment Lands at 1600 Lauzon Road is an cipated to permit for the redevelopment and intensifica on of the subject lands for more appropriate uses, op mizing the uses of exis ng urban lands, public service facili es, and infrastructure.

As depicted below in Figure 1.2, the majority of lands surrounding the subject site have transi oned to residen al, commercial, and ins tu onal uses. As such, the exis ng Industrial designa on of the subject site is no longer compa ble with abu ng land uses. The proposed redevelopment presents an opportunity to transi on the subject lands for more suitable and compa ble land uses in keeping with the exis ng uses of the surrounding area.

Figure 1.2: Surrounding Land Uses of Subject Site – 1600 Lauzon Road, Windsor

This report is focused on assessing the forecasted employment growth within the Municipality and the subsequent demand of employment lands. The privately-ini ated conversion request will remove tradi onal employment lands on the former LEAR site and re-designate the Industrial lands to more suitable and appropriate land use designa ons, including Residen al, Commercial, and Ins tu onal uses. While the designa on of the subject site is proposed to change, certain employment opportuni es will con nue to exist in the form of popula on-related employment found in commercial designa ons.


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1.1 Purpose of the Employment Lands ReviewIn Ontario, the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) directs municipali es to protect employment lands, and s pulates that conversion of employment lands to non-employment uses be completed through a comprehensive review. This report has been prepared to sa sfy the requirements of the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) with regard to the supply of employment lands, and to demonstrate that the subject lands are not required for employment purposes in the City of Windsor over the long term (Sec on 1.3.2.2, PPS, 2014). In addi on, as a formal Lands Need Analysis is yet to be undertaken by the City of Windsor, this privately-ini ated review has been completed to assess the proposed employment lands conversion and its conformity to various City of Windsor land use policies.

Given the long-standing vacancy and underu liza on of the subject site, the lands are no longer appropriate and desirable for industrial employment uses. Furthermore, the majority of lands surrounding the subject site have transi oned to other uses, including residen al, commercial, and ins tu onal uses. This review will demonstrate that, through the analysis of exis ng reports on forecasted employment growth and employment lands needs, the employment lands of the subject site are surplus to the supply required by the City of Windsor, and that the proposed conversion is consistent with the PPS and in conformity with the City’s Official Plan.

What are employment lands?Employment lands are those

designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic

ac vity including, but not limited to, manufacturing, warehousing, offices,

and associated retail and ancillary facili es (Provincial Policy Statement, 2014). They have been tradi onally

referred to as Industrial lands or Business Parks.


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2.0 Planning Policy ContextThe following Chapter provides an overview of the relevant Provincial and Municipal policies which pertain to the proposed employment lands conversion of the subject site. The policies discussed in this Chapter frame the scope for the analysis and recommenda ons presented in later Chapters of this report.

2.1 Provincial Policy ContextThe Provincial Policy Statement, 2014 (PPS) provides policy direc on on ma ers of provincial interest rela ng to land use planning and regula ng the development and use of land. The PPS is issued under the authority of the Planning Act and came into effect on April 30, 2014. Under Sec on 3 of the Planning Act, local planning decisions shall be “consistent with” the Provincial Policy Statement and shall “conform to” provincial plans (Planning Act, R.S.O 1990, P.13 s. 3).

An employment land conversion is where a propertywhich is designated for an employment use is convertedto a non-employment use. In recent years, the Provincehas strengthened the policy framework for protectingemployment lands from unwanted conversions. The PPSdirects municipalities to protect and preserveemployment over the long term and allowsmunicipalities to protect beyond the 20 year planninghorizon. The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) protectsemployment land for current and future employmentgenerating purposes.

2.1.1 Sec on : Building Strong and Healthy Communi es

Sec on 1 of the PPS outlines policies on “Building Strong Healthy Communi es.” This sec on promotes strong, liveable and healthy communi es and requires that municipali es:

· Protect the environment, public health and safety;· Provide the appropriate mix and range of

employment, including industrial and commercial;· Promote economic development and

competitiveness;· Provide an appropriate mix and range of

Employment area: means those areasdesignated in an Official Plan for clustersof business and economic activitiesincluding, but not limited to,manufacturing, warehousing, offices, andassociated retail and ancillary facilities.

(PPS, 2014)


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employment types to meet long-term needs;· Provide opportunities for a diversified economic base;· Encourage compact, cost-effective development patterns; and,· Ensure that necessary infrastructure is made available.

The proposed transition from the Industrial designation will provide an opportunity for vacant andunderutilized lands to be redeveloped for a range of more compatible uses and promote developmentinfill and intensification. The proposal also encourages the use of cost effective and efficientdevelopment patterns for the underutilized vacant lands, the utilization of existing infrastructurealready in place, and adds to the long-term prosperity of the City of Windsor by creating opportunitiesfor an increased municipal tax base.

2.1.2 Sec on . Employment Policies

Specific policies relevant to the conversion and protec on of employment areas can be found in the PPS. The conversion of employment areas to non-employment areas occurs only through a comprehensive review where it has been demonstrated that the land being converted is not required for employment purposes over the long term and that there is a need for the conversion (PPS, s. 1.3.2). A comprehensive review is defined as (Sec on 6.0 Defini ons):

a) For the purposes of policies 1.1.3.8 and 1.3.2.2, an official plan review which is ini ated by a planning authority, or an official plan amendment which is ini ated or adopted by a planning authority, which:

i. is based on a review of popula on and employment projec ons and which reflect projec ons and alloca ons by upper- er municipali es and provincial plans, where applicable; considers alterna ve direc ons for growth or development; and determines how best to accommodate the development while protec ng provincial interests;

ii. u lizes opportuni es to accommodate projected growth or development through intensifica on and redevelopment; and considers physical constraints to accommoda ng the proposed development within exis ng se lement area boundaries;

iii. is integrated with planning for infrastructure and public service facili es, and considers financial viability over the life cycle of these assets, which may be demonstrated through asset management planning;

iv. confirms sufficient water quality, quan ty and assimila ve capacity of receiving water are available to accommodate the proposed development;

v. confirms that sewage and water services can be provided in accordance with policy 1.6.6; and

vi. considers cross-jurisdic onal issues.

b) For the purposes of policy 1.1.6, means a review undertaken by a planning authority or comparable body which:


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i. addresses long-term popula on projec ons, infrastructure requirements and related ma ers;

ii. confirms that the lands to be developed do not comprise specialty crop areas in accordance with policy 2.3.2; and

iii. considers cross-jurisdic onal issues.

In undertaking a comprehensive review the level of detail of the assessment should correspond with the complexity and scale of the se lement boundary or development proposal.

The policies allow municipali es to protect employment lands beyond 20 years provided the lands are not designated beyond the 20 year planning horizon (PPS, s.1.3.2.4). The PPS also contains broader policies on employment. The PPS requires that municipali es promote economic development and compe veness by encouraging compact, mixed-use development that incorporates compa ble employment uses to support liveable communi es (PPS, s. 1.3.1 c). The PPS also requires that long-term economic prosperity be supported by maintaining and enhancing the vitality and viability of downtowns and main streets (PPS, s.1.7.1 c).

The redevelopment proposal for 1600 Lauzon Road promotes the policies of the PPS by encouraging the development of compact, mixed use development which incorporates compa ble employment uses.

2.1.3 Sec on . : Housing

The PPS indicates that an appropriate range and mix of housing types and densi es are required to meet future projec ons of a regional market area. The proposed transi on from employment lands to broader designa ons, including Residen al, creates an opportunity for residen al uses of various densi es. The proposed variety of densi es and range of land uses also encourages ac ve transporta on and promotes the u liza on of exis ng transit connec ons to meet the health and well-being of future residents.

2.2 Local Policy ContextThe local policy context in the City of Windsor is outlined in the City of Windsor Official Plan and relevant planning studies that pertain to or materially affect employment lands in the city.

2.2.1 City of Windsor Official Plan

The City of Windsor Official Plan (OP) provides land use policy direc on for the en re municipality. Sec on 6.4 of the OP provides general policy direc on for employment growth, which recognizes that it should be directed to appropriate loca ons. Figure 2.1 presents the current land use designa ons within the City of Windsor Official Plan. The primary designa ons for employment uses are provided under two designa ons: Industrial and Business Park. According to the Official Plan policies, these designa ons have the following func ons:

· To strengthen Windsor’s economy;


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· To meet the land needs of employment opportuni es; and· To address concerns over compa bility.

Lands designated Industrial have an employment principal of land use and permit industrial related and suppor ve uses. Industrial land use policies are outlined in Sec on 6.4.3 of the Official Plan. As shown in Figure 2.1 below, the City’s Industrial lands are primarily clustered together and separated from sensi ve land uses. Within these Industrial lands, the policies provide for a broad range of uses based on their physical and opera onal characteris cs. These characteris cs include facility size, outdoor storage, produc on volumes and hours of opera on, likelihood of nuisances, and mul -modal transporta on facili es.

Figure 2.1: Employment Land Context (Official Plan Designations)

These characteris cs are supported by a range of ancillary uses that include:

· Open space;· Convenience stores and restaurants;· Adult entertainment parlors;· Motor vehicles sales;· Club, athle c or sports facility;· Wholesale store; and· A variety of retail uses.


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As with the Industrial land use designa on, Business Park designa ons provide for business and industrial uses that are similar in quality and character, and are purposefully located in highly visible areas. Business Park land use policies are outlined in Sec on 6.4.4 of the Official Plan. Permi ed land uses include research, development, and informa on processing establishments and offices, as well as select industrial uses. Ancillary uses that are permi ed in the Industrial designa on are also permi ed in the Business Park land use designa on.

In Sec on 6.4.2.7, the OP notes that Council may support the redevelopment of abandoned Industrial or Business Park areas to other land uses provided that:

· The redevelopment would not be detrimental to other Industrial or Business Park uses opera ng in the area;

· The area for redevelopment is one in transi on and in keeping with uses in the en re area; and· The redevelopment adheres to the policies set out in Sec on 5.4.8: Poten ally Contaminated

Sites.

The majority of lands surrounding the subject site have transi oned to residen al and ins tu onal uses, and as such, the exis ng Industrial designa on of the subject site is no longer compa ble with abu ng land uses. The proposed redevelopment presents an opportunity to transi on the subject lands for more suitable and compa ble land uses in keeping with the exis ng uses of the surrounding area.

Furthermore, several other land use designa ons permit employment uses, including Mixed Use, Waterfront Port, City Centre Planning District, Windsor Airport, and Future Growth Area designa ons. The Future Growth Areas include Future Employment Area (County Rd 42 and southern extent of Lauzon Parkway) and Future Urban Area (County Rd 42). As demonstrated in later chapters of this report, the availability of lands for employment uses throughout the City ensures that the proposed conversion and redevelopment will not be detrimental to other Industrial or Business Park uses.


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3.0 Data Analysis ContextAs a formal Lands Need Analysis is yet to be completed by the City of Windsor, this privately-ini ated review u lizes exis ng reports on forecasted popula on and employment growth and employment lands needs to assess the proposed conversion of employment lands. These reports represent the best available and most current analysis for the City of Windsor. While several of these reports were completed nearly a decade ago, their projec ons and analysis remains relevant and applicable for the purpose of this Employment Lands Review. As such, the informa on derived from these reports forms the basis of analysis to inform the proposed conversion of employment lands at 1600 Lauzon Road.

3.1.1 City of Windsor - Employment Projec ons & Employment Land Needs Analysis – EDP Consul ng ( )

An Employment Projec ons and Employment Land Needs Analysis Report was completed by EDP Consul ng in 2008 for the City of Windsor as a part of the “Moving Forward” stage of the City’s Official Plan review (“EDP Report”). The purpose of the EDP Report was to address the PPS requirements which s pulate that municipali es maintain a 20 year supply of designated employment lands. EDP Consul ng prepared employment projec ons for fixed places of work in Windsor and an assessment of land supply needed to accommodate projected employment growth on employment lands in the City of Windsor for the 2006 to 2026 planning period. The scope of the study was to build upon employment projec ons work completed by the City in 2006.

Employment Growth Projec ons

The EDP Report considered three separate Employment Projec on scenarios for growth in employment at fixed places of work, a Base Case, a Low Growth Case, and a High Growth Case. As per the EDP Report, the ‘Base Case’ scenario is considered to be the most likely scenario to materialize for the City of Windsor over the 2006-2026 planning period based on past and expected future trends. An overview of the three projec on scenarios is presented below in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1: Employment Projections, 2006 to 2026 - EDP Consulting, 2008

Year High Growth Base Case Low Growth

2006 120,700 120,700 120,700

2011 125,900 120,970 117,650

2016 136,630 126,200 119,120

2021 149,010 133,240 122,130

2026 162,520 141,840 125,220

Total 41,820 21,140 4,520


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Under the ‘Base Case’ growth scenario, it is projected that employment in the City of Windsor will grow by approximately 21,140 jobs over the 20-year period (2006-2026), with the highest propor on of growth (approximately 45%) in the Popula on and Business Services sector. The Manufacturing sector is forecast to have the second largest propor on of employment growth, at approximately 21.5%. An overview of the distribu on of jobs under the ‘Base Case’ employment growth projec on is presented below in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2: Distribution of Jobs, ‘Base Case’ Employment Growth Projection, 2006 to 2026 - EDP Consulting, 2008

Sector New Employment (2007-2026)

Manufacturing 4,545 21.5%

Other Industrial Related 2,705 12.8%

Popula on / Business Services 9,410 44.5%

Ins tu onal 4,460 21.1%

Primary 20 0.1%

Total 21,140 100%

The EDP Report u lizes a number of assump ons to es mate employment projec ons over the 20 year planning horizon, including the assump on that Manufacturing will con nue to be an important sector in Windsor. However, the EDP Report does indicate that the rela ve share of Manufacturing employment in the City of Windsor will be lower than in the past. In par cular, the report s pulates that employment in the Manufacturing sector will decrease to 21.5% in 2026, from a level of 29.7% in 2001.

Employment Lands Demand Projec onsU lizing the employment growth projec ons of the ‘Base Case’ scenario, the EDP Report provides a projec on of demand for new employment lands in the City of Windsor. As per the EDP Report, only a por on of new employment is expected to locate within the designated employment lands of the City of Windsor, with the remainder loca ng on ins tu onal, commercial, and home-based loca ons.

In par cular, the assessment for projected employment lands demand described in the EDP Report considers a number of factors pertaining to the City of Windsor, including:

· Increasing number of persons working at home, as a result of the City of Windsor slowly shi ing from a heavy manufacturing economy towards a more diversified service economy;

· Opportuni es for employment intensifica on through accommoda on of new employment within underu lized buildings; and

· Future ins tu onal, popula on, and business employment to be largely located on lands not designated as employment lands.


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Based on this assessment, the EDP Report determined that there would be demand for 9,445 jobs to be located on employment lands in the City of Windsor over the 2006-2026 planning period. This represents roughly 45% of the new employment projected for the City of Windsor. An overview of the es mated demand for jobs to be located on employment lands, categorized by sector, is presented below in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3: Estimated New Jobs on Employment Lands in Windsor - EDP Consulting, 2008

Sector New Employment (2007 – 2026)

Manufacturing 4,545

Other Industrial Related 2,570

Popula on and Business Services 1,880

Ins tu onal 450

Total 9,445

To accommodate the number of new jobs projected to locate on employment lands within the 20 year planning period, the EDP Report es mates that approximately 400 to 500 net hectares (988.42 to 1,235.53 acres) of employment lands will be required. This es mated employment land area requirement was calculated using a number of factors, including:

· An employment lands density assump on of 23 to 28 employees per net hectare;· Poten al of unsuitable lands from a topographic and environmental perspec ve;· Past absorp on rates of employment lands;· Vacancy resul ng from market choice of employment lands; and· A net-to-gross factor to account for servicing, roads, parking, landscaping, etc.

Vacant Employment Lands SupplyThe EDP Report also provides an assessment of vacant employment lands, derived from informa on provided by the City of Windsor Planning Department in 2007, and from an analysis of lands designated for employment uses in the City of Windsor Official Plan. The report es mates that there are approximately 100 net hectares (247.11 acres) of usable, vacant employment lands within the City in 2007. These lands represent the amount of vacant designated employment land for parcels that are con guous and larger than 1 hectare (2.47 acres). In addi on, the report highlights the large supply of available employment lands within the annexed Sandwich South Area of Windsor, comprising approximately 1,036 hectares (2,560 acres) of future employment lands. In this regard, the EDP Report is able to conclude that a more than adequate supply of employment lands is available to accommodate projected employment growth over the 20 year planning period.


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3.1.2 Windsor-Essex & City of Windsor Popula on and Housing Projec ons - – Lapointe Consul ng Inc. ( )

A Housing and Popula on Projec ons Report was completed in 2008 by Lapointe Consul ng Inc. for the City of Windsor as a part of the “Moving Forward” stage of the City’s Official Plan review. The scope of the study was to update projec ons by taking into account informa on from the 2006 census, as well as address Planning Act requirements which s pulate that municipali es update and maintain popula on projec ons during 5-year reviews of Official Plans. The report prepared by Lapointe Consul ng Inc. provides popula on projec ons and assessment of housing supply needs over the 2006-2031 planning period.

The Lapointe Report depicts three separate Popula on Projec on scenarios for the City of Windsor: Low, Reference, and High Growth scenarios. As per the report, the ‘Reference’ scenario is considered to be the most likely scenario to materialize for the City of Windsor over the 25 year horizon. An overview of the three scenarios is presented below in Table 3.4.

Table 3.4: Population Projections, 2006 to 2031, Lapointe Consulting Inc., 2008

Year High Growth Reference Growth Low Growth

2006 216,473 216,473 216,473

2011 220,313 220,037 219,698

2016 232,996 230,985 226,631

2021 248,667 243,055 235,521

2026 264,827 256,034 243,809

2031 281,314 267,670 250,206

Under the ‘Reference’ growth scenario, it is projected that the City of Windsor will grow by approximately 51,200 people over the 25-year period (2006-2031), with the highest propor on of growth occurring amongst the popula on of seniors (those aged 65 years and over).

3.1.3 City of Windsor – Land Needs Analysis Report – Dillon Consul ng ( )

An assessment of Land Needs was completed by Dillon Consul ng in 2009 for the City of Windsor as part of a strategy to advance Windsor’s Vision within the Official Plan 5 Year Review. This report provides an overview of the analysis conducted by EDP Consul ng in 2008, and summarizes the City’s employment land needs to the year 2026. As indicated by the EDP Report, the analysis provided by Dillon Consul ng in 2009 concludes that the City of Windsor is able to meet the 20 year projected employment land demand given the current supply of designated lands throughout the City, including lands in the Sandwich South Area.


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3.1.4 County of Essex Employment Land Needs Analysis – Jones Consul ng Group Ltd. ( )

While the subject lands of the proposed employment lands conversion are located within the City ofWindsor, it is important to note the supply of employment lands within the context of surroundingmunicipalities. The County of Essex, comprised of seven lower-tier municipalities, is currently in theprocess of developing a new Official Plan. As part of the Official Plan review, Jones Consulting GroupLtd. completed a Foundation Report in 2011 which provided a summary of the future projection for thesupply of Commercial and Employment lands within the County of Essex for the planning period of 2006to 2031. A summary of the findings of this report is presented below in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5 – Existing Estimated Excess Supply of Non-Residential Land, County of Essex

As per the findings of the report, there is an over-supply of employment lands of between 821 ha (2,030 acres) to 934 ha (2,310 acres) across these seven municipali es of Essex County, which are in close proximity to the City of Windsor. While por ons of the Essex County employment lands have constraints that could make their development challenging, the analysis illustrates that, County-wide, there is a significant over-supply of employment lands. Coupled with the es mated supply of vacant employment lands in the City of Windsor, the reports demonstrate that the region has a vast supply of available employment lands to sa sfy forecasted demand well past the 20 year planning period.

Municipality Commercial Land Employment Land

Kingsville 36 - 40 ha( 89 - 99 ac)

- 2.4 - 8.5 ha( - 6 – 21 ac)

Lakeshore 246 – 255 ha (608 - 630 ac)

300 – 331 ha (742 – 818 ac)

Amherstburg 0 – 5 ha (0 - 12 ac)

399 – 405 ha (986 - 1,001 ac)

Leamington 193 – 202 ha (479 - 499 ac)

101 – 113 ha (252 – 279 ac)

LaSalle 18 – 28 ha(45 - 70 ac)

21 – 32 ha(51 -78 ac)

Tecumseh 81 – 93 ha (201 - 230 ac)

24 – 69 ha (58 – 170 ac)

Town of Essex 4 – 7 ha(10 - 17 ac)

- 13 – 17 ha(- 31 – 43 ac)

County of Essex 579 – 630 ha(1,431 – 1,557 ac)

821 – 935 ha(2,030 – 2,310 ac)

Source: NBLC, Foundation Report – Essex County Official Plan Review, August 2011


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4.0 Macro-Economic and Employment TrendsThe following sec on presents a summary of the macro-economic trends influencing the regional labour force and employment trends within the Windsor Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). The analysis provides considera on of the poten al impacts on employment lands resul ng from forecasted popula on growth in the City of Windsor. It is noted that historical me periods examined within this sec on vary due to data availability.

4.1 Global Economic TrendsIn its latest World Economic Outlook, the Interna onal Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecas ng global economic growth to strengthen from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.8% in 2018. For advanced economies, the IMF’s forecast for 2017 and 2018 has slightly improved from its October 2016 projec on of 2.0% growth in 2017 and 2018. Growth prospects for emerging markets and developing economies are much more varied, but overall have weakened slightly from the IMF’s October 2016 outlook, due to weaker economic condi ons in key export markets.1

Within the United States (U.S.) real GDP (gross domes c product) advanced by a rela vely moderate 1.6% in 2016, the weakest increase in three years. For 2017 and 2018, U.S. growth is projected to improve to 2.3%, with household spending, business investment and residen al construc on being key contributors to overall growth. Notwithstanding these predic ons for stronger U.S. economic growth in the near term, the lack of specific details on the new U.S. administra on’s proposed policies has raised the risks associated with the current U.S. outlook. Over the next five years, U.S. economic growth rates, as measured through GDP, are forecast to be moderate from 2.1% to 2.3% annually.

4.2 Ontario’s Shifting Economic Structure

4.2.1 Ontario Economic Outlook within the Canadian Context

The Ontario economy is facing significant structural changes. Over the past several decades, the provincial economic base, as measured by GDP output, has shi ed from the goods-producing sector (i.e. manufacturing and primary resources) to the service-providing sector. Much of this shi has occurred during the past decade, driven by GDP declines in the manufacturing sector which were most significant immediately following the 2008/2009 global economic downturn. In contrast, service-based sectors such as financial and business services have seen significant increases in GDP over the past several years.

1 Economic and Fiscal Outlook. Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO). Assessing Ontario’s Medium-Term Prospects.Spring 2017.


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Growth in the service-based sectors has been driven by strong growth in domes c demand, par cularly in consumer spending.

The trend towards more knowledge-intensive and crea ve forms of economic ac vity is evident across many sectors within both the broader na onal and provincial economies and within the Windsor CMA’s economy. This trend includes growth in financial services, informa on technology, business services, health care and social services, government, advanced manufacturing, energy, informa on and cultural industries, educa on, training and research, agri-business and tourism. In planning for long-term growth, these sectors are an cipated to be amongst the key growth areas of the Windsor CMA’s knowledge-based economy.

Recent structural changes in the economy away from tradi onal goods-producing sectors have also hit the Windsor CMA, given Windsor’s labour force concentra on in tradi onal manufacturing sectors. This highlights the need to gear economic development ini a ves in Windsor towards established and emerging growth sectors of the economy, with a specific emphasis on technology and innova on.

The economic recession hit Ontario rela vely hard, with significant declines in manufacturing output par cularly in the auto sector and in construc on. While the Ontario economy has experienced a rebound in economic ac vity since the 2008/2009 downturn, this recovery has been rela vely slow to materialize. That said, provincial GDP levels have sharply rebounded since 2014 and are forecasted to remain well above the na onal average in 2017, as summarized in Figure 4.1. Stronger provincial economic growth is a ributed, in part, to steady improvement in the economic outlook for the U.S. and an improving export market due, in part, to a lower-valued Canadian dollar.2

Figure 4.1: Annual Real GDP Growth, Ontario and Canada Historical (2006 to 2015) and Forecast (2016 to 2017)

2 Valued at approximately $0.77 U.S. as of September 2018.

2.8%

2.2%

0.5%

-2.5%

3.0%

2.5%

1.7%2.0%

2.5%

1.1%1.4%

2.1%2.4%

2.0%

0.0%

-3.5%

3.2%

1.8%1.5% 1.3%

2.7%2.5% 2.6%

2.3%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (f)

Annu

al R

eal G

DP

Grow

th (%

)

Canada Ontario

Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. ; Note: 2016 and 2017 are forecasts.


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While the performance of the Ontario economy is an cipated to remain rela vely strong over the near term, there are poten al risks to the na onal and provincial economies which are important to recognize. This includes risks with respect to the proposed renego a on of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the adop on of protec onist trade measures in the U.S., as well as other proposed changes to U.S. fiscal and industrial policies. Domes cally, these policies can have poten ally dras c consequences for the integrated supply chain associated with the auto industry.

4.2.2 Outlook for Provincial and Regional Manufacturing Sectors

Manufacturing remains vitally important to the provincial economy with respect to jobs and economic output. As summarized in Figure 4.2, the manufacturing sector is among Ontario’s largest source of employment. While manufacturing is an important component of the Ontario economy, this sector is not an cipated to generate significant labour-force growth across the Province. In general, globaliza on has led to increased outsourcing of produc on processes to overseas manufacturers. While there will con nue to be a manufacturing focus in Ontario, industrial processes have become more capital/ technology intensive and automated. The highly compe ve nature of the manufacturing sector will require produc on to be increasingly cost effec ve and value-add oriented, which bodes well for firms that are specialized and capital/technology intensive.

Figure 4.2: Ontario Employment, 2016

26,000

37,000

45,000

49,000

106,000

117,000

149,000

245,000

261,000

319,000

324,000

329,000

341,000

370,000

433,000

450,000

473,000

669,000

675,000

721,000

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction

Management of companies and enterprises

Utilities

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Real estate and rental and leasing

Information and cultural industries

Other services (except public administration)

Transportation and warehousing

Construction

Finance and insurance

Wholesale trade

Admin. and support, waste mgt. & remediation services

Professional, scientific and technical services

Public administration

Accommodation and food services

Educational services

Manufacturing

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Employment

Sect

or

Source: Derived from EMSI Data, 2006-2016 Watson & Associates Economists


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As summarized in Figure 4.3, the manufacturing sector in Ontario experienced significant declines between 2004 and 2009. Between 2009 and 2012, provincial labour force levels stabilized in the manufacturing sector, followed by a modest decline post-2012. Looking forward, modest labour force growth is an cipated in this sector across the Province, as well as more regionally across the Windsor CMA.

Figure 4.3: Manufacturing Labour Force Employment in Ontario, 2000 to Early 2017

4.3 Regional Employment Trends

4.3.1 Windsor CMA Labour Force Trends, to

Figure 4.4 summarizes historical labour force trends within the Windsor CMA over the 2001 to 2016 period. During this period, the Windsor CMA labour force base increased by approximately 8,400 jobs, or a rate of approximately 0.4% per year. During the 2001 to 2006 period, the Windsor CMA experienced a steady increase in total labour force of approximately 1.1% annually. This was followed by a sharp labour force decline between 2006 and 2011 of approximately -16,700, largely driven by the 2008/2009 economic downturn. During the 2011 to 2016 period, the Windsor CMA labour force experienced a steady recovery, rebounding to levels nearing those of 2006, increasing by approximately 16,200 or a rate of approximately 2.2% per year.


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Figure 4.4: Windsor CMA Labour Force by Major Sector, 2001 to 2016

Note: Wholesale and retail Trade are grouped into CommercialSource: Derived from Sta s cs Canada: Table 14-10-0098-01 by Dillon Consul ng.

Despite the recovery of employment since the economic downturn, the share of labour force within the Windsor CMA has gradually shi ed from the industrial sector towards commercial and ins tu onal sectors over the past 15 years. As of 2016, approximately 63% of the region’s labour force base is comprised of commercial and ins tu onal sectors, while the industrial and agricultural sectors represent approximately 35% and 1% of the regional labour force base, respec vely. The general decline of the local industrial sector is in line with the declines experienced at the provincial level.

As per the employment forecasts prepared by EDP Consul ng, the share of labour force in the industrial sector is expected to further decrease over the coming years as a result of the local shi from a heavy manufacturing economy towards a more diversified service economy. In par cular, the local Manufacturing sector is forecast to decrease to 21.5% of the local labour force in 2026, down from a level of 29.7% in 2001. Despite the forecasted decline, the manufacturing sector will con nue to represent a vital segment of the local labour force.

4.4 Planning for Growth in the City of Windsor

4.4.1 City of Windsor Popula on Forecast to

The popula on of Windsor is currently es mated at approximately 217,188 people, in accordance with the 2016 Census. This represents a popula on increase of 3.0% from the 2011 Census, and an annual growth rate of approximately 0.6%. As iden fied in the Windsor Popula on and Housing Projec ons prepared by Lapointe Consul ng Inc., the City is forecast to reach a popula on of approximately 267,670 by 2031. This projec on is based on the ‘Reference’ (Medium) Growth Scenario of the Lapointe Report, which has been iden fied as the most likely scenario to materialize for the City of Windsor. While popula on growth in the City declined in 2011, in accordance with the ‘Reference’ (Medium) Growth


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Scenario, the City is forecast to add approximately 50,500 people over the next 15 years (2016 to 2031), represen ng an annual growth rate of approximately 1.5%.

4.4.2 How does Popula on Growth Impact Demand for Employment Lands?

Popula on growth impacts the demand for non-residen al lands in different ways. Popula on-related development (i.e. retail commercial, personal service uses and ins tu onal) is automa cally a racted to loca ons convenient to local residents. Generally, as the popula on grows, the demand for popula on-related development also increases to service the needs of the local community (subject to available services within the surrounding market area). Popula on and labour force growth itself does not typically drive employment growth in export-based sectors (i.e. industrial and office). Place making, however, is increasingly becoming recognized as an important concept in crea ng diverse and vibrant communi es, which in turn can help a ract local popula on and job growth, provided that other necessary infrastructure requirements are met. This is par cularly relevant in mixed-used environments which integrate office commercial, residen al and other community uses with public open spaces. In addi on, access to skilled labour is one of the important considera ons that industries (par cularly in the knowledge-based sectors) look at in assessing loca onal decisions.

Most industrial development (e.g. manufacturing, logis cs and warehousing), is not directly linked to local popula on growth and tends to be more influenced by broader market condi ons. This includes factors such as regional economic compe veness, transporta on access and distance to employment markets, as well as local site characteris cs such as servicing, highway access and exposure, site size/configura on, physical condi ons and site loca on. As such, industrial employment is not necessarily an cipated to increase in direct propor on to popula on growth in Windsor. For these reasons, when assessing the long-term industrial growth poten al in Windsor, substan al considera on has been given to recent macro-economic trends in Ontario and the Windsor CMA, as well as the compe ve posi on of Windsor’s Employment Areas within the context of the surrounding market area.


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5.0 Forecast Demand on Employment LandsA detailed discussion regarding forecasted employment growth and subsequent demand for employment lands within the City of Windsor is presented in the following sec on. This analysis is framed by highligh ng forecasted changes by employment sector and its an cipated impact on employment lands over the 20 year planning period.

5.1 City-Wide Employment Growth ForecastAs part of our assessment of long-term demand for employment lands, the employment forecast scenarios prepared by EDP Consul ng (2008) were analyzed, including three scenarios (low, base, and high growth) with a 20-year forecast horizon period (2006 to 2026).

Referencing the Base Growth Scenario forecast, the City of Windsor is expected to reach 141,840 employees by 2026. This represents an increase of 21,140 employees over the 2006 to 2026 period, or an annual employment growth rate of 0.9%. Based on our assessment of recent employment trends and a review of the long-term economic outlook for the City of Windsor, we believe that the Base Growth Scenario for employment forecasts remains reasonable.

Outlook for the Industrial Sector

· As previously men oned, the manufacturing sector in the City of Windsor as a whole has experienced a decline in employment over the past decade, similar to the Province of Ontario. The loss in manufacturing in the City of Windsor is largely a ributed to the auto sector, which lost significant jobs over the past decade.

· Looking forward, there will con nue to be a focus on manufacturing in the City of Windsor; however, industrial processes have become more specialized, capital/technology intensive and automated. This means that, as the regional manufacturing sector con nues to recover, economic output will gradually increase; however, modest employment growth is an cipated in the manufacturing sector. The auto sector in Windsor is an cipated to con nue to comprise an important component of the City’s employment base. Con nued provincial interest in this sector as well as federal trade policies (i.e. NAFTA) will be important factors influencing the manufacturing sector in Windsor and the Province as a whole.

· It is expected that growth in the industrial sector will account for approximately 34% of the City’s total employment growth over the 2006 to 2026 period, adding approximately 360 industrial jobs annually over the planning period.


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Outlook for the Commercial and Ins tu onal Sectors

· As men oned previously, the City’s popula on is an cipated to increase by approximately 50,500 people over the next 15 years (2016 to 2031). Forecasted employment growth in Windsor is an cipated to drive demand for future retail and personal service employment.

· Macro-trends are an cipated to influence the demand for local commercial employment, in par cular e-commerce and its impact on retail space. E-commerce is reducing the need for brick and mortar retail space, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the forecast period. It is an cipated that the employment ac vity rate (ra o of jobs to popula on) for retail will decline over the forecast period, while the employment ac vity rate associated with the office sector will gradually increase due to trends in knowledge-based employment.

· Based on a review of employment trends, a mix of retail, office and ins tu onal sectors have experienced strong growth over the past few years, including health care and social assistance; retail trade; professional, scien fic and technical services; art, entertainment and recrea on; educa on; and accommoda on and food services3.

· Commercial and ins tu onal sectors are es mated to accommodate 45% and 21% of the City’s total employment growth between 2006 and 2026, respec vely. Growth in the commercial sector is largely an cipated to comprise retail and personal services, with a modest but growing component of employment from the office sector.

5.2 Employment Density on Employment LandsThe Employment Projec ons and Employment Lands Needs Report prepared by EDP Consul ng (2008) examined the employment density trends on employment lands in the City of Windsor. The report concludes that the average employment density on employment lands in Windsor is comparable to other municipali es in southwestern Ontario. The average employment density on employment lands in Windsor is currently es mated at 26 jobs per net ha (11 jobs per net acre).

As per the EDP report, it is difficult to ascertain employment density trends in the City of Windsor due to limited absorp on of employment lands over the past decade; however, it is an cipated that the employment density will modestly decrease over the forecast period, consistent with trends observed across southern Ontario. In general, average density levels on employment lands have been gradually declining in the manufacturing sector, as domes c manufacturers focus efforts on increased efficiency and compe veness through automa on. As such, over the long term (i.e. 2026), it is an cipated that employment densi es on employment lands in Windsor will be slightly below the current average density of 26 jobs per net ha (11 jobs per net acre). Over the forecast period, an average employment density of 23 jobs per net ha (9 jobs per net acre) has been assumed.

3 Based on OMAFRA (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs) EMSI Analyst data, 2012-2016.


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5.3 Employment Land Demand Forecast, 2006 to 2026

Under the ‘Base Case’ growth scenario of the EDP Report, it is projected that employment in the City of Windsor will grow by approximately 21,140 jobs over the 20-year period (2006-2026), with the highest propor on of growth (approximately 44.5%) in the Popula on and Business Services sector. While the Manufacturing sector is forecast to have the second largest propor on of employment growth (21.5%), the rela ve share of Manufacturing employment in the City of Windsor is expected to decrease from a level of 29.7% in 2001. An overview of the distribu on of jobs under the ‘Base Case’ employment growth projec on is presented below in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1: Distribution of Jobs, ‘Base Case’ Employment Growth Projection, 2006 to 2026 - EDP Consulting, 2008

Sector New Employment (2007-2026)

Manufacturing 4,545 21.5%

Other Industrial Related 2,705 12.8%

Popula on / Business Services 9,410 44.5%

Ins tu onal 4,460 21.1%

Primary 20 0.1%

Total 21,140 100%

U lizing the employment growth projec ons of the ‘Base Case’ scenario, the EDP Report provides a projec on of demand for new employment lands in the City of Windsor. As per the EDP Report, only a por on of new employment is expected to locate within the designated employment lands of the City of Windsor, with the remainder loca ng on ins tu onal, commercial, and home-based loca ons. In par cular, the assessment for projected employment lands demand described in the EDP Report considers a number of factors pertaining to the City of Windsor, including:

· Increasing number of persons working at home, as a result of the City of Windsor slowly shi ing from a heavy manufacturing economy towards a more diversified service economy;

· Opportuni es for employment intensifica on through accommoda on of new employment within underu lized buildings; and

· Future ins tu onal, popula on, and business employment to be largely located on lands not designated as employment lands.

Based on this assessment, the EDP Report determined that there would be demand for 9,445 jobs to be located on employment lands in the City of Windsor over the 2006-2026 planning period. This represents roughly 45% of the new employment projected for the City of Windsor. An overview of the es mated demand for jobs to be located on employment lands, categorized by sector, is presented below in Table 5.2.


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Table 5.2: Estimated New Jobs on Employment Lands in Windsor - EDP Consulting, 2008

Sector New Employment (2007 – 2026)

Manufacturing 4,545

Other Industrial Related 2,570

Popula on and Business Services 1,880

Ins tu onal 450

Total 9,445

To accommodate the number of new jobs projected to locate on employment lands within the 20 year planning period, the EDP Report es mates that approximately 400 to 500 net hectares of employment lands will be required. This represents an annual land absorp on rate of approximately 23 net hectares (56 net acres) annually. Dillon Consul ng conducted further analysis of the es mated demand for employment lands across the City of Windsor in 2009 and corroborated the es mates provided by the EDP Report.

As previously discussed, the long-standing vacancy of the subject site demonstrates that the lands are no longer appropriate and desirable for industrial employment uses. Within the Essex County region, new and expanding industrial employment uses have been establishing on employment lands with loca onal advantages, such as proximity to major transporta on corridors. Examples of these desirable and successful employment lands can be found in:

· Walker Farms and Twin Oaks Business Parks (Windsor)

· Oldcastle Business and Sylvester Business Parks (Tecumseh); and

· Maidstone (Pa llo Road) Business Park (Lakeshore).

In addi on, several other emerging areas in the region have been the focus of growth in industrial related employment uses, including the Windsor Airport Lands and the Sandwich South Lands in Windsor. Given the loca on and surrounding uses of the subject site, the lands are no longer an cipated to be desirable and marketable for industrial employment uses. In this regard, the proposed conversion and subsequent redevelopment of the subject site is not an cipated to have adverse impacts to the supply and vitality of employment lands in the broader area.


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IDENTIFY CITY’S EMPLOYMENT LANDS

Lands designated as Industrial, Future Employment Lands, and Business Park in the City of Windsor Official Plan.

IDENTIFY CURRENT USE Review the status of each parcel.

Occupied lands include:• Lands occupied by industrial

uses; and• Lands with vacant buildings.

Remaining vacant employment lands become the City’s employment land vacant supply.

REFINE THE SUPPLY

· Exclude parcels that have natural heritage features and hazards which limits development.

· Eliminate parcels of less than 1.0 hectare.

6.0 Employment Land SupplyAn assessment of the inventory of designated employment lands in the City of Windsor is presented below, including the strengths and weaknesses of the inventory. The assessment of the inventory of designated employment lands is u lized to analyze whether the employment lands of the subject site are surplus to the supply required by the City of Windsor over the 20 year planning period.

6.1 Employment Land Supply MethodologySimilar to the assessment conducted by EDP Consul ng in 2008, our basis for the assessment of exis ng employment land supply was derived from GIS informa on provided by the City of Windsor and air photo interpreta on and analysis of lands designated for employment use within the City of Windsor Official Plan. Our process to refine the supply of vacant employment lands included several steps, described below in Table 6.1.

Table 6.1: Employment Land Supply Methodology


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6.2 Employment Land InventoryApplying the methodology described above, Dillon Consulting conducted an assessment of the existingemployment lands supply within the City of Windsor. This assessment included lands designated forIndustrial, Business Park, and Future Employment uses. Figure 6.1 (below) presents the analysis ofdesignated and vacant employment lands, depicted geographically across the city.

Figure 6.1: Vacant Employment Lands Supply – Dillon Consulting, 2018

As illustrated in Figure 6.1, the lands designated as Industrial and Business Park are found clustered throughout the City, while the lands designated a Future Employment are located solely along the County Rd 42 corridor and southern extent of Lauzon Parkway. Combined, these lands represent approximately 2,868 hectares of designated employment lands in the City of Windsor.

U lizing the methodology for iden fying vacant employment land supply (discussed above), our analysis indicates that the City of Windsor currently has approximately 1,122 hectares (2,772.52 acres) of vacant employment lands. A er refining the supply of vacant employment lands, excluding parcels with natural heritage features and hazards, and omi ng parcels of less than 1.0 hectare (2.47 acres), our analysis demonstrates that the total supply of vacant employment lands available is approximately 1,007 hectares (2,488.35 acres). Table 6.2, below, provides a summary of the vacant employment lands supply, as iden fied by Dillon Consul ng.


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Table 6.2: Summary of Vacant Employment Lands Supply – Dillon Consul ng, 2018

Designa on Exis ng Vacant Refined Supply

Industrial 4,054 ac / 1,641 ha 807 ac / 326 ha 684 ac / 277 ha

Business Park 979 ac / 396 ha 341 ac / 138 ha 312 ac / 126 ha

Future Employment 2,053 ac / 831 ha 1,626 ac / 658 ha 1,492 ac / 604 ha

Total 7,086 ac / 2,868 ha 2,774 ac / 1,122 ha 2,488 ac / 1,007 ha

The previous assessment of vacant employment lands conducted by EDP Consul ng in 2008 for the City of Windsor established a supply of approximately 1,200 hectares (2,965.27 acres) of vacant employment lands. Considering the EDP Report es mated annual land absorp on rate of approximately 23 net hectares (56 net acres), the vacant employment lands assessment conducted by Dillon Consul ng is presumed to be accurate. In this regard, the analysis demonstrates that there is an over-supply of employment lands within the City of Windsor to meet demand over the 20 year planning period.

6.2.1 MHBC Background Report – County Road Secondary Plan

To corroborate our analysis of vacant employment land supply, we compared our assessment with that of a recent review conducted by the City of Windsor in support of the MHBC Background Report for the County Road 42 Secondary Plan. Similar to our own survey, this review assessed the inventory of vacant industrial lands u lizing MPAC assessment codes and visual review techniques. However, unlike our review and that of EDP Consul ng, the City of Windsor analysis did not include the future employment lands in the Sandwich South Area. Figure 6.2 presents the analysis of vacant employment land as conducted by the City of Windsor, depicted geographically across the city.


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Figure 6.2: Vacant Employment Lands Supply – City of Windsor, 2017

Source: MHBC, Background Report – County Road 42 Secondary Plan, January 2018

As per the MHBC Background Report, the poten al supply of vacant employment lands in the City of Windsor is approximately 384 gross hectares (948.88 gross acres). A er accoun ng for features which generally prohibit the use of lands for employment purposes, including natural heritage features and hazards, and excluding parcels of less than 1.0 hectare (2.47 acres), the total supply of employment lands available was approximated to be 275 hectares (679.54 acres). A summary of the vacant employment lands supply in the City of Windsor, as depicted in the MHBC Background Report, is presented below in Table 6.3.

Table 6-3: Summary ofVacant Employment LandsSupply – City of Windsor,2017

Source: MHBC, Background Report – County Road 42 Secondary Plan, January 2018


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A comparison of the analysis conducted by Dillon Consul ng and that of the City of Windsor for MHBC reveals that the general loca on and supply of vacant employment lands iden fied are closely aligned. However, it must be noted that the City of Windsor review omi ed several parcels of vacant employment lands, including the lands of the subject site of this report. It is also important to note that the Dillon Consul ng assessment of vacant employment land supply incorporates the lands of the Sandwich South Area of Windsor, whereas the analysis conducted for the County Road 42 Secondary Plan Report does not.

The Sandwich South Area lands comprise a significant por on of the lands in the City of Windsor designated for future employment use. As such, an assessment of the vacant employment land supply in the City of Windsor would not be complete without the inclusion of these lands. Therefore, the analysis conducted previously by EDP Consul ng (2008), and the analysis conducted by Dillon Consul ng in this report, is presumed to represent an accurate depic on of the vacant employment lands supply in the City of Windsor.


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7.0 Requested Employment Land ConversionThis section provides a summary review of our assessment of the requested employment landconversion at 1600 Lauzon Road, Windsor, including the policy basis for such a conversion. As evidencedthroughout the report, this Employments Lands Review presents the information required for theevaluation of the requested conversion, and the support and justification for its approval.

7.1 ApproachThe City is currently undertaking an Official Plan Review (OPR) to provide updated policies for the City. This process will include, amongst other studies, a Land Needs Analysis; however, the ming of the private request for the redevelopment of the Former Lear property at 1600 Lauzon Road requires the private land owner to work in consulta on with the City of Windsor ahead of the comple on of the formal OPR.

The employment land conversion proposal is intended to alter the existing Industrial land usedesignation of the subject site to various other land use designations, including Residential, Commercial,and Institutional uses. The intent of this review is to demonstrate that the removal of the subjectproperty from the Employment Lands inventory will not have an adverse impact on the City’s ability toaccommodate future employment growth.

7.2 EvaluationEmployment land conversions are assessed based on the criteria provided within the PPS and the City ofWindsor Official Plan. As noted earlier, the PPS identifies that a conversion of employment lands to non-employment uses can be undertaken through a comprehensive review, only where it has beendemonstrated that the land is not required for employment purposes over the long term and that thereis a need for the conversion (policy 1.3.2.2 of the PPS 2014) through its definition of a comprehensivereview.

The subject conversion site was reviewed against the following evaluation criteria to determine itsmerits for conversion:

· The land is not required for employment purposes over the long term;

· The conversion of the site would not create incompa ble land uses;

· The conversion of site would not nega vely affect employment lands in the area;

· The conversion of the site would support City policy planning objec ves; and

· The site has limited market poten al to accommodate employment uses.


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7.2.1 Methodology

The focus of this conversion analysis, as part of this privately-ini ated review, is on the principle of land use. The review process undertaken includes a thorough assessment of popula on and employment growth projec ons, and the subsequent an cipated demand for employment lands. The analysis considers informa on provided by the proponent for the privately-ini ated request, the exis ng Provincial and City policies, and findings of past studies.

A comprehensive review of the employment lands supply in the City of Windsor produces the informa on required to contend the poten al land use impacts of the requested employment land conversion.

7.2.2 Assessment of the Privately-Ini ated Conversion Request

The merit for our analysis of the requested employment lands conversion is based on the various reports iden fied in this report, and our own assessment of employment lands in the City of Windsor. Our analysis of employment lands supply, coupled with the analysis conducted by Jones Consul ng Group Inc. for the County of Essex (2011), indicates that there is a clear over-supply of employment lands in our region. As per our analysis conducted for this Employment Lands Review, the City of Windsor has approximately 2,868 hectares (7,086.98 acres) of lands designated for employment uses. A review of the designated employment lands reveals that approximately 1,007 hectares (2,488.35 acres) are deemed to be vacant, including the lands of the subject site.

The subject lands requested for conversion total 25.58 hectares (63.20 acres), represen ng approximately 2.2% of the City’s es mated vacant employment lands inventory. In this regard, we can s pulate that approximately 983 hectares (2,429.05 acres) of vacant employment lands would remain available should the subject lands be converted and removed from the inventory. Based on forecasted employment growth, the projected demand for employment lands in the City of Windsor to the year 2026 is es mated to be between 400 and 500 hectares (988.42 and 1,235.53 acres). As such, this review demonstrates that the employment lands of the subject site are surplus to the supply required by the City of Windsor over the 20 year planning period, and that the removal of the subject property from the Employment Lands inventory will have no adverse impact on the City’s ability to accommodate employment growth in the future.

7.3 RecommendationAs evidenced by the long-standing vacancy and underu liza on of the subject site, the Industrial land use designa on is no longer appropriate for these lands. Market demand for such a parcel of industrial related employment use is no longer warranted in this loca on of the City of Windsor. As such, a re-designa on is proposed to improve the compa bility of the subject site with surrounding land uses and permit the redevelopment of the site for uses more suitable with the surroundings and with current demands.


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Notwithstanding the need to preserve employment lands in the City of Windsor, we recommend the conversion of the subject site due to its proximity to sensi ve uses and non-employment uses; its limited market poten al to accommodate future employment uses; and the exis ng over-supply of employment lands in the City of Windsor. Conversion of the subject site is intended to enhance land use compa bility issues and is not an cipated to have adverse impacts on the employment lands in the broader area. As the subject site is surrounded predominantly by residen al, commercial, and ins tu onal use, we contend that redevelopment of the subject site should incorporate land uses that are complimentary to the exis ng uses.

As demonstrated throughout this report, the proposed Employment Lands conversion of the former LEAR property at 1600 Lauzon Road is consistent with the Provincial Policy Statement, conforms to all applicable policies of the City of Windsor Official Plan, and will have no adverse impact on the City’s ability to accommodate future employment growth. In this regard, it is our opinion that the proposed Employment Lands conversion represents good planning.

_________________________Karl Tanner, MCIP RPP

A

B

C

D

E

F Figures

McHUGH STREET

LAU

ZO

N R

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D

TECUMSEH ROAD EAST

LAU

ZO

N P

AR

KW

AY

LAU

ZO

N R

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LIT

TLE R

IVER

AC

RES

DR

IVE

DA

RFIE

LD

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LITTLE RIVER ROAD

FAIR

VIE

W B

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D

EA

STLA

WN

AV

EN

UE

ED

WA

RD

AV

EN

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JAN

ISS

E D

RIV

E

TECUMSEH ROAD WEST

JEFFE

RS

ON

BO

ULE

VA

RD

FO

RE

ST G

LA

DE

DR

IVE

AS

PE

NS

HO

RE

DR

IVE

McHUGH STREET

FLO

RE

NC

E A

VE

NU

E

TH

UN

DE

RB

AY

AV

EN

UE

LITTLE RIVER BOULEVARD

EDGAR STREET

RAYMOND AVENUE

TRANBY AVENUE

PA

RK

VIE

W A

VEN

UE

VIR

GIN

IA A

VEN

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ISA

BELLE

PLA

CE

BELLE

ISLE

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W B

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AR

DM

ATH

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Y B

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TRY C

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TRY C

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TRY C

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ESPLANDE DRIVE

ASGARD ROADEASTCOURT DRIVE

STIL

LM

EA

DO

W R

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RO

BIN

ET R

OA

D

EMPRESS STREET

LAU

ZO

N R

OA

D

LA

UZ

ON

PA

RK

WA

Y

FIRGROVE DRIVE

IVA

NH

ILL A

VE

NU

E

CLO

VE

R A

VE

NU

E

FR

ED

ER

ICA

AV

EN

UE

PE

AR

SO

N A

VE

NU

EC

LO

VE

R A

VE

NU

E

INV

ER

NE

SS

AV

EN

UE

MA

GN

OLIA

AV

EN

UE

MO

RN

ING

STA

R A

VE

NU

EV

EN

ITIA

N A

VE

NU

E

TH

UN

DE

RB

AY

AV

EN

UE

LU

XU

RY

AV

EN

UE

CH

ATE

AU

AV

EN

UE

MELVILLE DRIVE

ATWATER CRESTCENTLYNNGROVE CRESCENT

OSBORN CRESCENT

CALEDON COURT

PULBROOK ROAD

SHEANDOAH CRESCENT

WINSLOW ROAD

LAMBETH ROAD

LOCATION MAPMAP/DRAWING INFORMATIONTHIS DRAWING IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. ALLDIMENSIONS AND BOUNDARY INFORMATION SHOULD BEVERIFIED BY AN O.L.S PRIOR TO CONSTRUCTION.CREATED BY: KRKCHECKED BY: MAMDESIGNED BY: KRK

PROJECT: 17-6415

STATUS: FINAL

DATE: 07/16/2019

SCALE : N.T.S.

N

S

EW

File Location:c:\projectwise\working directory\active\32mam\d0579410\176415 - pjr figures -final(2).dwg July, 19, 2019 12:42 PM

SUBJECT AREA± 25.58ha (± 63.20ac)

SOURCE: CITY OF WINDSOR AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH 2017

FARHI HOLDINGS CORPORATION1600 LAUZON ROADEMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW

McHUGH STREET

LAU

ZO

N R

OA

D

TECUMSEH ROAD EAST

LAU

ZO

N P

AR

KW

AY

LAU

ZO

N R

OA

D

LIT

TLE R

IVER

AC

RES

DR

IVE

DA

RFIE

LD

RO

AD

LITTLE RIVER ROAD

FAIR

VIE

W B

OU

LEV

AR

D

EA

STLA

WN

AV

EN

UE

ED

WA

RD

AV

EN

UE

JAN

ISS

E D

RIV

E

TECUMSEH ROAD EAST

JEFFE

RS

ON

BO

ULE

VA

RD

FO

RE

ST G

LA

DE

DR

IVE

AS

PE

NS

HO

RE

DR

IVE

McHUGH STREET

FLO

RE

NC

E A

VE

NU

E

TH

UN

DE

RB

AY

AV

EN

UE

LITTLE RIVER BOULEVARD

EDGAR STREET

RAYMOND AVENUE

TRANBY AVENUE

PA

RK

VIE

W A

VEN

UE

VIR

GIN

IA A

VEN

UE

ISA

BELLE

PLA

CE

BELLE

ISLE

VIE

W B

OU

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AR

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ATH

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Y B

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TRY C

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PER

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TRY C

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MED

ALE

BO

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VEN

TRY C

OU

RT

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LFOU

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LEV

AR

D

ESPLANDE DRIVE

ASGARD ROADEASTCOURT DRIVE

STIL

LM

EA

DO

W R

OA

D

RO

BIN

ET R

OA

D

EMPRESS STREET

LAU

ZO

N R

OA

D

LA

UZ

ON

PA

RK

WA

Y

FIRGROVE DRIVE

IVA

NH

ILL A

VE

NU

E

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VE

R A

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NU

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FR

ED

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ICA

AV

EN

UE

PE

AR

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N A

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NU

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R A

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INV

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EN

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MA

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EN

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MO

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EN

ITIA

N A

VE

NU

E

TH

UN

DE

RB

AY

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EN

UE

LU

XU

RY

AV

EN

UE

CH

ATE

AU

AV

EN

UE

MELVILLE DRIVE

ATWATER CRESTCENTLYNNGROVE CRESCENT

OSBORN CRESCENT

CALEDON COURT

PULBROOK ROAD

SHEANDOAH CRESCENT

WINSLOW ROAD

LAMBETH ROAD

VIA RAIL CANADA INC.

SURROUNDING LAND USEMAP/DRAWING INFORMATIONTHIS DRAWING IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. ALLDIMENSIONS AND BOUNDARY INFORMATION SHOULD BEVERIFIED BY AN O.L.S PRIOR TO CONSTRUCTION.CREATED BY: KRKCHECKED BY: MAMDESIGNED BY: KRK

PROJECT: 17-6415SCALE : N.T.S.

N

S

EW

File Location:c:\projectwise\working directory\active\32mam\d0579410\176415 - pjr figures -final(2).dwg July, 19, 2019 12:45 PM

SOURCE: CITY OF WINDSOR AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH 2017

RESIDENTIAL INSTITUTIONALCOMMERCIAL VACANTPARKLAND /GREENSPACE

INDUSTRIAL

McHUGH STREET

LAU

ZO

N R

OA

D

TECUMSEH ROAD EAST

TRANBY AVENUE MA

THEW

BR

AD

Y B

OU

LEV

AR

D

LA

UZ

ON

PA

RK

WA

Y

VIA RAIL CANADA INC.

FAIR

VIE

W B

OU

LEV

AR

D

EA

STLA

WN

AV

EN

UE

BELLE

ISLE

VIE

W B

OU

LEV

AR

D

BELLE

PER

CH

E P

LAC

E

CATHERINE STREET

LITTLE RIVER ACRES DRIVE

DA

RFIE

LD

RO

AD


STATUS: FINAL

DATE: 07/16/2019


Employment Land Context(OFFICIAL PLAN DESIGNATIONS)FIGURE 2-1

MAP/DRAWING INFORMATIONTHIS DRAWING IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. ALLDIMENSIONS AND BOUNDARY INFORMATION SHOULD BEVERIFIED BY AN O.L.S PRIOR TO CONSTRUCTION.CREATED BY: KRKCHECKED BY: MAMDESIGNED BY: KRK

PROJECT: 17-6415

STATUS: FINAL

DATE: 07/16/2019

SCALE : N.T.S.

N

S

EW

File Location:c:\projectwise\working directory\active\32mam\d0579410\176415 - elr figures.dwg July, 19, 2019 9:33 AM


SOURCE: CITY OF WINDSOR OFFICIAL PLANSCHEDULE D - LAND USE


SUBJECT SITE

DILLON CONSULTING ANALYSIS:VACANT EMPLOYMENT LANDS SUPPLY

FIGURE 6.1PROJECT: 17-6415

STATUS: FINAL

DATE: 07/16/2019

SCALE: NTS

N

S

EW

CITY BOUNDARYINDUSTRIALDESIGNATED LANDS

SOURCE: CITY OF WINDSOR OPEN DATA (2018)

FARHI HOLDINGS CORPORATION1600 LAUZON ROADEMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW INDUSTRIAL

VACANT LANDS

BUSINESS PARKDESIGNATED LANDS

BUSINESS PARKVACANT LANDS

FUTURE EMPLOYMENTDESIGNATED LANDS

FUTURE EMPLOYMENTVACANT LANDSPARCELS

CITY OF WINDSOR ANALYSIS:VACANT EMPLOYMENT LANDS SUPPLY

FIGURE 6.2


PROJECT: 17-6415

STATUS: FINAL

DATE: 07/16/2019

SCALE: NTS

N

S

EW

SOURCE: CITY OF WINDSOR PLANNING DEPARTMENT (2018)

farhi holdings corporation employment lands review · addion, the redevelopment of the subject site...

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