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T h u r s d a y , S e p t e m b e r 8 , 2 0 1 6C S G W E S T A N N U A L M E E T I N G

C O E U R D ’ A L E N E , I D

Matthew Hardy, Ph.D.Program Director for Planning and Performance Management

American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

FAST and Furious Edition:

PERSPECTIVES ONTHE FAST ACT

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TALKING POINTS

• What is AASHTO

• Federal Legislation

o FAST Act

o MAP-21

• Topics to Discuss

o Implementation Issues

o USDOT Rulemakings

o Trends to Consider

o Big Three for Transportation Professionals

New Toy

(aka FAST Act)

Stalwart

(aka MAP-21)

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WHAT IS AASHTO?

• A nonprofit association founded in 1914

• Members include:

o Highway and transportation departmentsof the 50 states, the District of Columbia,and Puerto Rico

o 46 Associate Members from Federal, State, and Local agencies and other countries

• Covers all five transportation modes:Air, Highways, Rail, Transit, and Water

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FAST ACT OVERVIEW

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FAST ACTFunding Certainty for Five Years

• Contract Authority Provided for highway, highway safety, and transit programs between FY 2016 and 2020.

• $305 billion in total funding; $281 billion guaranteed from the Highway Trust Fund.

• Modest increase in Federal funding levels, slightly higher than rate of inflation.

• About 93 percent of highway dollars are apportioned to States.

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$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1. FAST Act

2. MAP-21 Current Services (Inflation-adjusted Baseline)

3. Cliff Scenario (Supportable Oblim w/ No Net New Revenue)

COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL HIGHWAY AND TRANSIT OBLIGATIONSIn billions of dollars

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FAST ACT

A Multimodal Program Platform

• Proportionate funding increases for both highway and transit programs.

• Formula-based National Freight Program to support highway freight movement.

• Continuation of bicycle and pedestrian funding program.

• General Fund authorization of passenger rail funding and programs, including Amtrak.

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FAST ACTFAST Act’s Policy Priorities

• Streamlined project delivery through an improved review and permitting process that can lower costs and bring benefits to users sooner.

• Refinement of freight policy and network to match dedicated Federal freight funding.

• New technologies such as connected and automated vehicles.

• Further innovations in project financing and procurement.

• Demonstration of user-fee based alternative revenue mechanisms to sustain the Highway Trust Fund over the long term.

• Continuation of performance-based program implementation as enacted in MAP-21.

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IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES

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REVENUE AND FINANCE

• Rescission of Contract Authority

• Long-term Fundingo User-Based Alternative Revenue Mechanisms Demonstration Program

• National Surface Transportation and Innovation Finance Bureau

• National Significant Freight and Highway Projects Discretionary Grant Program

• Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act

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FREIGHT

• Freight Planning

• Primary Highway Freight System

• National Multimodal Freight Network

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PROGRAM AND PROJECT DELIVERY

• Coordinated and Concurrent Environmental Review and Permitting Process

• Planning and Environmental Linkages

• USDOT Project Dashboard

• Project Schedules

• Environmental Checklist

• Programmatic Categorical Exclusions

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CURRENT RULEMAKINGS

Transportation Performance Management

Implementation Status

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DOT OMB NPRM CLOSED DOT OMB FINAL

Highway Safety Improvement Program

PM1 - Safety Performance Measures

State and Metro Planning

PM2 - Pavement/Bridge Condition Measures

Asset Management Plan

PM3 - System Performance+ Measures

Mar ‘16

Mar ‘16

May ‘16

Apr ‘16

Mar ‘14 Jun ‘14

Mar ‘14 Jun ‘14

Jun ‘14 Oct ‘14

Jan ‘15 May ‘15

Feb ‘15 May ‘15

Nov ‘16

Nov ‘16

TBDAug ‘16

MPO Coordination

Jun ‘16 TBD60 days

Transportation Performance Management

FINAL

Comment Review and Evaluation

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StakeholderInput

MAP-21 Provisions

State of Practice

LogicalOutgrowth

INPUT PROPOSAL REVIEW

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TRENDS TO WATCH FOR PLANNING

3D PRINTING’S IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATION

FREIGHT

Worldwide Container Port Traffic

TEU: 20-foot equivalent units, 2000-2014

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PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION IMPACT ON FREIGHT MOVEMENT

Source: based on Panama Canal Expansion study, EDR Group for USDOT (MARAD)

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Historical CPI-U Estimated CPI-U Based on 21-year Average from 1994-2014

PURCHASING POWER LOSS OF GAS TAX DUE TO INFLATION

52% Purchasing Power Loss by 2024

39% Purchasing Power Loss by 2014Percentage

FEDERAL GAS TAX HEADWIND:SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER

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FEDERAL GAS TAX HEADWIND:SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER

ITEM UNIT/DESCRIPTION 1993 2010 PERCENT CHANGE

College Tuition Average Tuition and Required Fees 3,517$ 9,136$ 160%

Gas Per Gallon 1.12$ 2.73$ 144%

Movie Ticket Average Ticket Price 4.14$ 7.89$ 91%

House Median Price 126,500$ 221,800$ 75%

Bread Per Pound 1.08$ 1.76$ 62%

Income Median Household 31,272$ 49,167$ 57%

Stamp One First-class Stamp 0.29$ 0.44$ 52%

Beef Per Pound of Ground Beef 1.57$ 2.28$ 46%

Car Average New Car 19,200$ 26,850$ 40%

Federal Gas Tax Per Gallon $ 0.184 $ 0.184 0%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Postal Service, U.S.Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Education,

National Association of Theater Owners

Sample of Nominal Prices Relative to Federal Gas Tax, 1993 and 2010

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TECHNOLOGY OUTLOOK On the horizon:

• Dedicated, high-speed routes to accommodate driverless trucks and cars?

• Convenience of ‘hands-free’ driving and VMT?

• New engineering paradigms like intersections that work without stop lights?

• Computer code vulnerabilities versus driver error as biggest safety challenge?

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BIG THREE FOR TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONALS

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1) COORDINATION

• Broad-based: Statewide, MetropolitanLong-range Transportation Plans

• Focused: Freight, Transportation Asset Management Plans (TAMPs), Modal Plans, etc.

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MPO COORDINATION• Redefines a metropolitan

planning area (MPA)

• Requires MPOs in an MPA to

jointly develop unified planning

products for the entire MPA

• 1 MTP and TIP

• Jointly establish performance

targets!

• Also apply to UZA that cross

State line

• Require dispute resolution

• Coordinate on any information

or analyses

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OHIO ???

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2) DATA

• Collection

• Management

• Analysis

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3) RELEVANCE

• Breadth vs. Depth of Measures

• Federal vs. State vs. Local

• Emphasis on “mega”

o Megaregions

o Megatropolis

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Matthew Hardy, Ph.D.Program Director for Planning and Performance Management

American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials202-624-3625

mhardy@aashto.org

QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION