fastferry nik
DESCRIPTION
fast ferry design, high speed craftTRANSCRIPT
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Fast Ferries&
Floating Production/Storage/Offloading (FPSO) Vessels
Hauke Kite-Powell
October 2005
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Fast Ferries: Outline
• Technical Overview• Background and History• Present Market Conditions• Likely Developments• Financial and Risk Management
Considerations
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Fast Ferries: State of the Art
• large catamaran (Incat): 100 m, 500 dwt, 900 passengers/240 vehicles, 50 knots; $44m
• small catamaran: 30 m, 325 passengers, 40 knots; $15m
• Italian monohull: 150 m, 1800 passengers/460 cars, 40 knots
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Fast Ferries: Earlier Approaches
• hydrofoil• hovercraft• SWATH
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Fast Ferries: World Fleet
• 903 in 1990; 1218 in 1997; 12% growth• over 1000 are passenger-only• catamarans and monohulls growing
fastest• major regions: Greece (10%), China,
Indonesia, Scandinavia, Western Europe, Turkey, Singapore, Australia, South America
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Fast Ferries: Leading Builders
• Incat, Austal: Australian catamarans• Kvaerner Fjellstrand, FBM: Eurasian
catamarans• Fincantieri, Rodriquez Cantieri Navali:
Italian monohulls
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Fast Ferries: Supply
• Italian and N. European yards: largest ferries
• Australian yards: 40% of fast pass/vehicle market
• licensing of designs from Australia
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Fast Ferries: Current Demand
• passenger-only craft dominate• greatest current demand still from Europe
and the Asian Pacific Rim
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Fast Ferries: Nearterm Growth
• United States: metropolitan transport systems
• Greece: replacement of aging hydrofoils
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Fast Ferries: Longterm Growth
• Caribbean• Indonesia• Philippines• South America
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Fast Ferries: Developments
• size and speed• propulsion• reduced environmental impacts• rough sea operations
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Fast Ferries: Size and Speed
• gas turbines and composites: high speed more economical; long open water routes
• 95 m/1000 t/65 knots freight catamaran on offer
• 120-130 m/2000 t/50+ knots freight catamaran being designed
• flexible, modular designs
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Fast Ferries: (Gas) Turbines
• more kW/kg, but higher purchase price• fuel cost, maintenance cost coming down• inefficient at low power• four diesels is max. installation for
catamaran hull (30,000 kW)
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Fast Ferries: Environment
• wake wash• emissions• ship strikes on marine mammals
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Fast Ferries: Rough Sea Ops
• motion control systems (refinements)• SLICE: modified SWATH concept, focus
on Hawaiian islands
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Fast Ferries: Risk Management
• environmental and regulatory restrictions• inexperienced operators• secondary market
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FPSOS and Fast Ferries: Conclusions
• growth in both markets areas• opportunities exist• cash flows, not asset values• examine deployment specifics• consider redeployment opportunities and
limitations
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Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO)
Vessels
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Outline
• Technical Overview• Background and History• FPSO Market Development• Market Forecasts• Prospects for Conversions• Conclusions
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Technical Overview
• jackups• semisubmersibles• monohull FPSOs
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Context
• offshore production about 20% of world production
• mobile production about 10% of offshore production
• both fractions are increasing
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Mobile Production Installations
FPSO newbuildings 22FPSO conversions 46semisubmersible newbuildings 4semisubmersible conversions 31jack-ups 19total 122
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History
• first installation in Mediterranean• first substantial development in benign
waters of Far East, Australia• move to North Sea, South America, West
Africa• likely soon in U.S. Gulf of Mexico
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Technology Development
• flexible mooring to riser buoy• rigid mooring to riser buoy (detachable)• mooring turret in bow• mooring turret within length of vessel• dynamic positioning
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Technology Development
• water depth: 120 m (1977) to about 2500 m today
• production (flow) rates: 15,000 b/d (1977) to 200,000 b/d
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Water Depth Trend
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
FPSO deployments, 1981-1998
wat
er d
epth
(m)
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FPSO Vessel Size Trend
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FPSO deployments, 1981-1998
1000
dw
t
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Production Capability Trend
020406080
100120140160180200
FPSO deployments, 1981-1998
prod
uctio
n ca
paci
ty, 1
000
bopd
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Geographic Regions
FPS installations as of 1998
FPS installations 2003 (est.)
Europe 24 37 Africa 12 27 Middle East 1 1 Asia 13 15 Australia 4 7 North America 9 23 South America 12 25 Total 75 135
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U.S. Gulf of Mexico
• USCG, MMS share management responsibility
• FPSOs are tank vessels (OPA 90 etc. apply)
• stored oil is cargo• offloading is lightering• possibility of ISIS• EIS underway• gas flaring is illegal
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Economics
• structure cost insensitive to water depth• operating cost compares favorably to fixed
platforms• rapid deployment, redeployment• easy abandonment• (subsea tiebacks)• (semisubmersibles)
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Conversion vs. Newbuild
• 2/3 to date are conversions• cost: factor of 10 (conversion costs $15-30
million)• availability of suitable tankers: 1970s and
1980s, 100 - 160,000 dwt
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FPSO Deployment History
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1981 1985 1986 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
FPSO
s en
terin
g se
rvic
e/ye
ar
newbuildsconversions
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New vs. Convert: Vessel Size
02468
10121416
0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 201-250 251-300
dwt (1000s)
# of
FPS
Os
depl
oyed
convertnewbuild
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New vs. Convert: Production Cap
0
5
10
15
20
25
0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200
production capability, 1000 bopd
# of
FPS
Os
depl
oyed convert
newbuild
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New vs. Convert: Storage Cap.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 15 15 to 20 20 to 25 >25
storage capacity, days at max. prod. rate
# of
FPS
O d
eplo
ymen
ts convertnewbuild
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Indications for Newbuild
• harsh environment (seas always head-on)• long field life or deployment prospects
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Indications for Conversion
• benign environment• short term deployment
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Tank Vessels for Conversion
• steel condition is paramount• turbo generator a plus• segregated ballast tanks (post-1980) a
plus• condition of piping does not matter
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Demand Forecast
• 20+ deepwater fields/year being developed
• half of these to involve one or more FPSO: 10+ FPSOs/year
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OOG Drivers
• deepwater fields: 44% of reserves deeper than 300 m
• average field size decreasing• large new fields (West Africa, Brazil) are in
deep water• $44b in OOG development expenditures
forecast for next 5 years; 250 to 400 subsea completions per year
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Effect of Oil Price
• average deepwater finding/developing cost is just above $4/barrel (range: $2.11 to $9.42)
• deepwater development is relatively insensitive to oil price above $10/barrel
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Oil Price and U.S. OOG Activity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
oil p
rice
($97
/bbl
) and
U.S
. O&
G C
AP
EX
($b)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
num
ber o
f GO
M tr
acts
leas
ed
oil priceUS O&G CAPEXtracts leased
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Likely Developments
• Standardization -- not yet• connection technologies• gas production/disposal
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Standardization
• has not yet happened: too many one-off conversions
• shift to contractor ownership will help drive standardization
• production system components
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Connection Technologies
• subsurface buoys• riser connections• S-shaped risers• composite risers• synthetic rope moorings
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Gas Production
• conversion to methanol• liquefaction – now proven• pipeline• reinjection• flaring
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Conclusions
• growth projection healthy• conversions now slowing• investment opportunities in newbuildings