fce 572notes

FCE 572: ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT

1. New trends in management:a. Sustainable construction (SC)

Construction plays a crucial role in the overall economic development of nations by providing the fabric of constructed facilities that in turn facilitate other investments. The consequences of construction to human populations alter the ways in which people live, work, play, and relate to one another. In the 21st

century adding value to an economy entails delivering basic environmental, social and economic services to communities without threatening the viability of the natural, built and social system upon which they are dependant

Sustainable construction can be defined as a process by which a profitable and competitive industry delivers built assets, building structures, supporting infrastructure and immediate surroundings which

Enhance the quality of life of people and offer customer satisfaction Provides flexibility and supports desirable natural and social

environments Maximise the efficient use of resources while minimising wastage.

In developing countries this involves recognising the essential needs of the poor and their concerns about uneven development while paying attention to the environmental conservation. Sustainable construction must thus be centred on promoting appropriate, affordable, safe, efficient and environmentally sound products using processes that are subject to continuous review so as to optimise scarce resources.

Traditionally engineers are responsible for designing and planning the construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure necessary to meet the increasing demand for food, water, sanitation, shelter, health services, and economic security. Most engineers in developing countries however just use sustainability as a buzzword to accessing funds when bidding for projects – paying lip service to SC principles. SC demands that professional face the challenges of acting responsibly and find the best balance between their technical performance and protecting the overall interest of communities – positively impact peoples well being. This will entail;

Mandatory impact assessment – holistic to include social, economic, health, environmental etc

Sensitisation and training on the benefits

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Specification that have a bias towards local building materials – this is advantageous to the economy, ensures preservation of cultural value and heritage, promotes micro-enterprises, develops local human resource, and reduce poverty

Involvement of communities – embrace community participation in project design and construction in addition to project appraisal

Designing for flexibility to cater for future user-need changes – strive to create multi-purpose spaces and design flexibility that enables continual review of projects to cater for future needs

Use of recyclable/re-usable building materials – this will lead to waste reduction

Enforcement of existing laws and regulations – there is lack of policing and compliance checking systems

Client to demand SC practice on projects – most client are only interested in economic sustainability

Challenges of applying SC

Lack of facilitative regulatory framework in the industry The decision making in construction largely remains traditional Uninformed clients Inability to identify appropriate systems for specific environments Lack of best practice database Lack of a database on local materials, tools and techniques Erratic nature of construction business affects efforts to implement SC

practises Lack of resources to expend on R & D Poor public awareness.

Way-forward;

Improve training and sensitisation Incorporate holistic guidelines of impact assessment in the planning

permission of all projects and unify enforcement procedures Make social-economic, health and environmental assessments

compulsory.

b. Project management (PM)What is a project?

Temporary endeavour Undertaken to create a unique product or service An activity with defined goals and with given time span and resources

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A cause of irreversible change Concerned with the future hence has risk and uncertainty Activity requiring resources (human, material, financial) and decisions from

several persons

Projects vary in scale and complexity and are all investments meaning that the goods and services they produce must be more valuable that the cost of the project. Salient features of a project;

Simplicity of purpose – easily understood goals or objectives Clarity of purpose and scope – clearly described in finite terms its

objectives, scope, limitations, resources, quality, management Ease of measurement – progress can be measures against clear targets and

performance standards Flexibility of employment – employs or co-opts specialists or experts of high

calibre for limited periods

We can infer that PM started with the construction of the Egyptian Pyramids and the Great Wall of China as these projects necessitated it i.e.

Complex structures Enormous workforce High standards Needed a structured approach Integrated information Use multi-skills and disciplines Needed planning and scheduling.

In modern times too PM accomplishes great projects like the birds nest stadium in China, opera house in Sydney. Other factors that gave rise to PM in modern times include;

Rapidly changing technology Time constraints Unstable economies – political change Novelty of projects Increased scope of projects Increased risks – delay in completion, reduction in return Fiercely competitive markets – demanding leaner/meaner flexible

organisation structures and efficient systems approach Powerful environmental lobbies and considerations Need to monitor and control large amounts data Need to quickly and accurately facilitate problem solving and decision

making Increase in number of firms involved in project accomplishment

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Increase of number and influence of stakeholders Need to think ahead Clients need for value management and innovative solutions Need for value for money in view of competing alternatives Emphasis in product life-cycle hence need to look at the bigger picture and

consider trade-off between construction cost and maintenance, consider upgrades, expansion and decommissioning

Generally PM grew out of necessity rather that desire. It may be defined as the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities in order to meet stakeholder needs and objectives OR an endeavour in which humans, machines, materials and financial resources are organised in a novel way to undertake a unique scope of work of given specifications, with the constraints of cost and time so as to deliver beneficial change defined by quantitative and qualitative objectives. Generally therefore it is the management of planned change. PM involves;

50% thinking ahead or planningo Motivation to think ahead and reveal problems and find solutionso Defining work requirements, quantity, quality and resourceso Consider how, when, where, who and with what

25% communicationso Proposed timing, method, strategy are available and understood

25% monitoring and evaluation (yardstick)o Monitor the projecto Evaluate progresso Compare with plannedo Analyse impacto Make adjustments

The intention of all this is to provide the client with a project that satisfies fully his requirements regarding time, cost, quality, performance and cost in use.

c. Value management (VM)VM addresses the value process during the concept, definition, implementation and operation phases of a project i.e. the systematic and logical procedures and techniques that enhance project value through the life of the facility. VM is the management of a process to obtain maximum value on a scale determined by the client; therefore it centres on the identification of the requirements. Here the maximum value is obtained from a required level of quality at least cost; OR the highest level of quality for a given cost; OR from an optimum compromise

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between the two. Note that VM is about enhancing value and cutting the cost is just a by-product but not the main aim. VM thus aims to maximise project value (stakeholder value for money by achieving balance between cost and function) within time and cost constraints without detriment to function, performance, reliability and quality. It is structured, auditable, accountable, multi-disciplinary, and seeks to maximise the creative potential of all project participants. This may however initially require extra expenditure.

It is a term that encompasses the full range of value techniques including;

Value planning – value techniques applied during the concept or planning phase of a project to ensure that value is planned into the whole project from its inception. It is done by addressing and ranking stakeholders requirements in order of importance i.e. define project concept, objective, feasibility and approach

Value engineering – value techniques applied during the design or engineering phase – it investigates, analyses, compares and selects amongst the various options those that will meet the value requirements of stakeholders i.e. develop design and details, construction

Value analysis or reviewing – value techniques applied retrospectively to completed projects to analyse or to audit the projects performance and compare a completed or nearly completed design or project against predetermined expectations – conducted in the post-construction period as part of a post-occupancy evaluation exercise i.e. operation and decommissioning.

Impact at various stages;

Concept stage – help identify the need for a project, its key objectives and constraints

Feasibility stage – evaluate broad project approach and evaluate developing design proposals

Detailed design – to review and evaluate key design decisions as design progresses

Construction stage – to reduce costs, improve buildability and functionality

Operation stage – to improve possible malfunctions or deficiencies Decommissioning – to learn lessons for future projects.

VM involves the following;

Functional analysis – a technique designed to help the appraisal of value by a careful analysis of function i.e. the fundamental reason why the project element or component exists or is being designed – ask the questions

What is it

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What does it do What does it cost How valuable is it What else can do the job What will that cost

The process is designed to identify alternatives more valuable and/or cost effective ways to achieve the key functional requirements. Functional analysis is thus more suited to analysis of the detailed design of specific components or elements of a project. Usually it entails use of a job plan which is a logical and sequential approach to problem solving where multi-disciplinary groups use creative techniques to establish comparative cost in relation to function via the following seven steps;

i. Orientation – identification or definition of what has to be achieved and what are the key project requirements, priorities, and desirable characteristics

ii. Information – gathering relevant data about needs, wants, values, costs, risks, time scale and other project constraints

iii. Speculation or brainstorming – generation of alternative options for the achievement of client needs within the stated requirements i.e. identify options for resolving the requirements. This is a crucial step as the quality of ideas generated determines the worth of the approach

iv. Evaluation – of the alternative options identified in the speculation stage

v. Development – of the most promising options and their more detailed appraisal

vi. Recommendation for action – select the option with the greatest potential

vii. Implementation and feedback – examination of how the recommendations were implemented to provide lessons for future projects.

Life-cycle costing – a structured approach used to address all elements of cost of ownership based on the anticipated life span of a project. In construction the following categories are considered;

i. Investment or capital cost: site costs, design fees, legal fees, construction costs, tax allowances, and development fees

ii. Operation and maintenance costs: letting fees, maintenance costs (cleaning and servicing), repair costs, security, insurance, caretaker

iii. Replacement of components – planned replacement

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iv. Residual or terminal credits – NB: constructed facilities depreciate until they become economically or structurally redundant whereas land appreciates in value.

Why VM?

Projects suffer from poor definition because of inadequate time and thought given in earlier stages; and poor analysis of needs (ambiguous brief)– these results in cost and time overruns, claims, user dissatisfaction and excessive operating costs.

There are elements in a project that contribute to poor value including;o Inadequate timeo Habitual thinking/traditiono Conservatism and inertiao Attitudes and influences of stakeholderso Lack of or poor communicationo Lack of coordination between the designer and operatoro Lack of relationship between design and construction methodso Outdated standards or specificationso Absence of state of the art technologyo Honest false beliefs/honest misconceptionso Prejudicial thinkingo Lack of needed expertso Lack of ideaso Unnecessarily restrictive design criteriao Restricted design feeo Temporary decisions that become permanento Scope of changes for missing itemso Lack of needed information

VM ensures that;

The needs of a project is always verified and supported by data Project objectives are openly discussed and clearly identified Key decisions are rational, explicit and accountable The design evolves within an agreed framework of project objectives Alternative options are always considered Outline design proposals are carefully evaluated and selected on basis of

defined performance criteria It improves communication and teamwork by involving all the stakeholders

including investors, end-users, consultants, constructors, clients and specialist suppliers

Enhanced shared understanding among key participants Better quality project definition

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Increased innovations Elimination of unnecessary cost

Benefits to the project;

Provides a forum for all parties in a project development Provides review of entire project Identifies project constraints and challenges Identifies and prioritise project objectives Improves quality definition Evaluates means of achieving project objectives Remedies project deficiencies, omissions and superfluous items Ensure design is most effective for the purpose Identifies and eliminates unnecessary costs Provides management/client with the information to make informed

decisions Enhances return on investment Promotes innovation.

d. Quality managementQuality is defined as the ability to manage a project and provide the product or service in conformance with the user requirements on time, to budget and maximise profit without affecting quality.

QM ensures that a project meets specifications and customer requirements and involves the following major elements;

Confidence Control Consistency Cost-effectiveness Commitment Communication.

History;

Quality control – in the 1920 during the 2nd World War where as production increased and available labour decreased and had poor skills the need for inspection of inferior product arose. Usually uses statistical control and works in retrospective – detection mode to find problems that have occurred

Quality assurance – more sophisticated products increased the possibilities for mistakes and reliability engineering became important. Additionally it was realised that to produce high-quality products at competitive prices a

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quality system operating throughout all stages of production was required. Product safety also became an issue as highly complex and expensive plants with greater potential risk were built demanding not only satisfactory quality but also evidence of safe and controlled operations e.g. nuclear power stations. QA ensures that all planned actions deemed necessary to provide confidence to all stakeholders to a project satisfy given requirements hence including suppliers, distributors, etc were held responsible for any damages caused by the product to persons and property. Operational efficiency to prevent mistakes and increase innovation was instituted. QA aim at reducing and ultimately avoiding problems (preventing) occurring hence improvement.

Total Quality management (TQM) – involves the following;o Customer focuso Examines work processes not individual performanceo Applied to all work processes and all staffo Monitoring, measurement and reportingo Continual improvement

It ingredients are;

It provides quality that meets the projects requirements Quality is a means of achieving productivity Every activity of the projects contributes to total quality A means of achieving project success Managing quality involves systems, techniques, and individuals A way of managing a project

Advantages:

Quality in meeting the project specification saves money Alleviates poor quality hence reducing costs Reduces costs as productivity increases Improves capacity as quality increases Improves profitability Competitive advantage (market position) Improves safety Balances risk, benefit and cost Enhances client satisfaction.

Quality Plan (QP) – detailed plan to audit and maintain quality which defines;

The quality objects to be attained The specific allocation of responsibility and authority during the different

project phases The specific procedures, methods and work instructions to be applied

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Suitable testing, inspection and examination at different stages A method for changes and modifications in a quality plan as projects

proceeds Other measures necessary to meet project objectives

Quality Management system – connects all the activities influencing projects quality with the aim of achieving the desired quality without unnecessary cost. QMS ensures that;

Quality products and services always meet the expressed or implied requirement of the customer

Quality is achieved in a planned and systematic way The customer is satisfied

QMS is based on;

Planning – all activities and tasks that affect quality Execution – based on necessary expertise and resources i.e. educating,

training and informing relevant people on what is going to happen, who is doing what and implementing necessary changes

Checking – results of implementation to see that change is happening as required and removal of defects

Action – analyse and record information to prevent same defects from appearing again

Continuous upgrading must take place and frequent auditing to meet changes in work requirements and to remove redundant processes.

Quality costs more but lack of quality costs even more as failure is costly both to society and the project – additional expense and inconvenience. Quality costs include;

Costs of assurance procedures Costs of control procedures Costs of dealing with failures, rework, scrap and repairs.

More specifically in construction it involves the following;

Operating costs – incurred by the project in order to attain and ensure specific quality levels i.e.

o Prevention costs of efforts to prevent failures Design reviews Quality and reliability training Quality and reliability training Quality planning Audits

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o Appraisal costs – of testing, inspection and examination to assess whether specific quality is being maintained

Testing and inspection Maintenance and calibration Installation testing and commissioning

Failure costs (or losses) – internal failure costs resulting from the failures of a project or service to meet performance specifications prior to delivery

o Design changeso Vendor rejectso Reworko Scrap and material renovationso Warrantyo Commissioning failure.

e. Lean constructionThe following are some of the characteristics of the construction industry that have necessitated lean construction:

Up to 30% of construction costs are attributed to inefficiencies, mistakes, delays and poor communication

In developing countries where a significant percentage of materials and equipment are imported mistakes have major cost impact particularly where time delays render projects susceptible to currency risks and inflationary factors

Lean construction maximises value and reduces wastes i.e. construct facilities with little waste and as cost-effectively as possible while ensuring that the design will operate in a manner that promotes the sustainability of natural resources. Lean construction demands a break-away from the tradition of separating project design and production – once construction starts it quickly becomes obvious that factors that have not been considered in the design phases are of major significance in the field necessitating that the concept of design for production should be implements. LC may require more time in the design and planning phases but this attention eliminates or minimises conflicts that dramatically change budgets and schedules. LC maybe achieved via;

Supply chain management – primarily focuses on logistical control of the interface with suppliers – facilitating the provision of supplies precisely on time and in required quantities. NB a supply chain encompasses all the activities that lead to having the end-user provided with a product or service. Project costs increases up to 10% because of poor supply-chain design. Through supply chain management all parties are kept aware of

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commitments, schedules and expedited activities so that they source, produce and deliver products with minimal lead-time and expense. In addition each member of the supply chain is made aware of their influence on the overall project – this may involve a cultural change e.g. contractor will focus more on planning that can avoid waste and misuse of resources in the overall project rather the focusing on finishing tasks.

Just-in-time techniques – aimed at minimising wastes, continuous improvement of processes and systems and maintaining respect for workers i.e. only commit the resources needed to meet customer needs. This leads to reduced inventories, higher productivity, shorter lead times, fewer errors and higher morale e.g. Toyota reduced car production time form 15 days to 1 day. JIT requires extensive planning at the beginning of the project i.e. the design process includes facility design and design of the construction process, potential conflicts are identified during design and solutions are considered to avoid wasting resources in the future. JIT also reduces construction variation via use of schedule buffers e.g. to allow for design adjustment.

Open sharing of information between all parties – the parties are sensitized on the consequences of their actions. Information systems should be upgraded to provide instantaneous information to all parties – seamless communication regardless of differences in hardware and location.

LC requires that government provide a leadership role in adoption of sustainable construction because the industry on its own is unlikely to maintain reforms that may require relatively higher initial construction cost even though it has long-term benefits. This may be done through awareness programs, incentives and enforcement. TQM may be used in the design process to improve design accuracy e.g. design that favour appropriate technologies. Moreover the parties should enhance their project management skills.

Lean production started in the 1950s in Japan Toyota Company where wastes in mass production were identified as follows;

Overproduction

Waiting time

Transporting

Processing

Unnecessary stock at hand

Using unnecessary motions

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Producing defective goods

Failure to meet customer needs

Principals of a lean construction process;

Value – there is need to clarify the customer’s needs

Value stream – by mapping the value stream, identifying and eliminating waste, the construction process can be improved

Flow – of project information and activities

Supply flow – materials

Pull – the efforts of all the participants

Perfection – work instructions and procedures are developed and quality controls are established

Obstacles/inhibitors to adoption of lean construction:

Construction industry’s tendency to measure performance via completion on time, within budget with little attention to owner satisfaction as a measure of performance

Hard bidding by contractors on sub-contractors tends to compromise quality

Poor communications – contractor is unable to understand drawing and specifications

Innovation is adopted slowly – lack of expertise, financial resources, fear and uncertainty especially in developing countries inhibit adoption of technological advancements – they prefer to use time-honoured methods that are inefficient

Human resource development is not seen as a priority – particularly in developing countries labour force has little formal education, learn mainly by experience thus it is difficult to embrace the principals of TQM and employee empowerment

Lean construction does not happen by accident but requires educated workers that are able to contribute a wealth of ideas on how to reduce waste and improve processes. Additionally workforce training on lean construction is essential

Owners do not specifically demand productivity and quality – due to lack of awareness they accept industry pricing

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Few large firms and no SME have implemented the concept of quality and productivity manager but rather they depend on experienced staff to run projects although such staff rarely have training in optimisation techniques

Little if any benchmarking – construction professionals guard their trade secrets very closely due to distrust, fear of losing competitive advantage or simply by being anachronistic (outdated)

Wastes and problems in the supply chain are often invisible as separate parties focus on their immediate responsibility and act in their own interest i.e. the are not alerted to the consequences of the actions to the whole construction process

Lack of coordination between contractors and suppliers – potential for cost saving of 10 – 17%. Savings could also be due to reduces tendency for both to include a buffer which usually results in large cumulative affects

Excessive variation due to ordering of construction components with incomplete or missing information

Systems theory and the projectSystems theory is a management approach that attempts to integrate and unify scientific information across many fields of knowledge in order to solve problems by looking at the total picture rather than through an analysis of individual components. A system is thus a group of elements (human and non-human) that are organised and arranged in such a way that the elements can act as a whole towards achieving a common goal, objective or end. It consists of a collection of interacting subsystems that span or interconnect all. If the system is closed the management has complete control of it but if open it reacts to the environment. It may also be an extended system – that is significantly dependent on other systems for its survival hence it is ever changing as the significant other control resources required by the system or consume its output e.g. in construction the significant others are trade unions, suppliers, financiers, government, consumer pressure groups, educational institutions and customers.

Project organisation is a man-made system which has a dynamic interplay with its environment – customers, competitors, labour organisations, suppliers,

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government, and many agencies. It is thus a system of interrelated parts working in conjunction with each other in order to accomplish a number of goals both those of the organisations and the individual participants. Consequently, the system requires a management technique that is able to cut across many organisational disciplines – finance, manufacturing, engineering, marketing, etc – hence project management.

Hierarchy of systems:

Universe

Social Legal

Political

Organization

Economic

Project

Firm

Technological

Earth

Purpose of a project system:

Develop relationships between organisational resources

Obtain information

Assist in decision making

Systems and sub-systems;

Organisational system

Information system

o Informal

o Formals

Financial system

Marketing system

Inventory control system

Personnel system

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Production system

The project system may be modelled to exhibit actual behaviour of components and demonstrate ways in which they interrelate – total picture. Types of models:

Communications

o Oral or written

o Certain results will be achieved from specific managerial action

Schematic

o Static – set of relationships fixed in time including bar and arrow charts or start and end activity

o Flow rate – flow of relationships e.g. cpm, decision trees

Dynamic – transformation of relationship rather than activity which are effective in describing the total system e.g. black boxes where and input is manipulated to obtain output and feedback

Iconic – scaled up or down replicas of the actual system

Analog – means of representing physical property by other physical property e.g. fuel gauge represent fuel in the tank

Symbolic – represent properties and relationships in a system by symbolic or mathematical expression or equation

Conceptual – non-mathematical models that attempt to describe a concept or theory that could simply be a figment of imagination e.g. research hypothesis

Environmental managementTraditionally many construction projects e.g. water supply systems were deemed to have such overwhelming benefits that only costs were basis of determining various alternative. Today however, it is recognised that all projects will result in unquantifiable costs and impacts hence other impacts including environmental impact analysis and assessment are important though they are measured qualitatively.

Environment includes all the physical, chemical, biological and socio-economic factors that influence individuals or communities including air, water, land, all living species of plants, animals, birds, insects and microorganisms, man-made

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artefacts and structures, and factors of importance to the social, cultural and economic aspects of human existence. In this context therefore all projects have an effect or impact on the environment and it could be argued that unless they did there would be not point of implementing them. Some impacts are positive – benefits – while others have detrimental effect – costs. The purpose of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is to evaluate these positive and negative effects as objectively as possible and present the information in a manner that it is accessible to decision makers so that it becomes an additional appraisal tool.

Engineering projects have an impact on the whole environment spectrum and many impacts are measured in terms of;

changes to specific quality parameters e.g. dissolved oxygen concentration in water

the aesthetic qualities of a landscape or a structure or the importance of preserving a historic building

direct or primary impacts are those directly attributable to the project e.g. noise, pollution, etc

indirect or secondary impacts are those that affect areas remote from the project itself e.g. quarrying for raw materials, pollution by cement manufacturers

long term impacts are those that will continue throughout the operating life of the project and are thus permanent or long-term e.g. pollution by thermal power station

short term or temporary impacts are those arising from the planning, design and construction phase of the project e.g. temporary changes in the water table, noise and dust during construction

NB: generally the impacts may be a combination e.g. temporary and direct and these must be differentiated in the environment impact statement (EIS).

Environmental impact assessment (EIA)

EIA is a logical method of examining the actions of people and the effects of projects and policies on the environment so as to help ensure the long-term viability of the earth as a habitable planet. It aims to identify and classify project impacts and predict their impact on the natural environment, human health and well-being and communicate this information in the form of an EIS to decision makers who appraise projects. Because the natural environment is not steady but tends to change naturally over time, any of the impacts of a project must be seen in the context of what would have happened if the project had not been implemented – occurs at a specific period within a defined area. In many countries EIS is incorporated into the legal requirements for obtaining project and planning approval.

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EIA is a process that involves the following steps:

screening – done at the early stages of a project to determine whether or not a detailed EIA is required or necessary. This is largely defined by the legislative policy. The extent to which the EIA is needed is also defined since impact depends on the environment in which the project is set – the same project will have different impacts or different intensity of some impacts in different settings i.e. for a project EIA may be required for one set and not the other. The extent is usually defined in the regulations associated with the legislation.

scoping - a more specific form of screening that is essentially priority setting activity aimed at establishing the main features and scope of the subsequent environmental studies and analysis. It identifies the type of data to be collected, the methods and techniques to be used and the way in which the results will be presented. The decision on which impacts are significant is not always easy and requires judgement, tact and understanding of ;

o technical issueso environment surrounding the project including public opinion and

perceived impacts of those likely to be affected NB local knowledge is a valuable source of data

o social criteria – aesthetics, human health, safety, recreation and effect on lifestyles

o economic criteria – the value of resources, the effect on employment and commerce

o ethical and moral criteria – effect on other humans, forms of life and future generations

o current state of knowledge relating to a particular aspect of the environment as determined by developments in science and technology, professional experience of the experts

o time and budget allowed

Seeking public opinion involves identifying the affected population/target groups and getting their opinions – this includes local political and environmental concern groups (to avoid unnecessary confrontation later). Public consultations involves schedule of meetings with the affected target populations and interest groups where the objectives, possible impacts and associated activities of the project are explained and participants encouraged to identify other impacts and suggest mitigations. Such meetings must be allowed sufficient time and minutes taken and made public. It requires patience and diplomacy and it is time and money consuming. Alternatively questionnaire or telephone surveys may be used to solicit public opinions and results analysed statistically.

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Scoping helps obtain advance agreement on the important environmental issues hence scarce resources are used more efficiently.

baseline study – the collection of background information of the ecosystem and the socio-economic setting of a proposed development project. It involves field examination and collection of samples and it is the most expensive step because it requires a large number of experts. If scoping is not efficient then alot time and money is wasted collecting unnecessary and irrelevant data. Sources of data include previous studies, monitoring and audit results, other sources which should be vetted for accuracy and thoroughness.

impact prediction – the baseline study and the project proposal are then used to predict how environmental parameters will change during both the construction and operation of the project. It requires environmental and social scientist and utilises sophisticated equations, modelling and simulation techniques. For each impact the most appropriate method should be used and the prediction should encompass all project activities and differentiate primary, secondary, short- and long-term effects. The predictions should be grouped into various categories e.g. biological, physical, social, economic and cultural and should use quantitative prediction where possible.

prepare an EIS – the predictions and baseline study are then used to prepare the EIS which is used to in the appraisal and approval process. It usually includes;

o the need for the project – aims and objectiveso baseline reporto list and description of all reasonable and possible project alternatives

including the ‘do-nothing’ option. For all alternative the following should be detailed

clear description of the project during construction and operation – details of use of land, materials, energy, estimates of levels of pollution and emissions

clear estimate of environmental consequences of each alternative – predictions of the effects of all the significant impacts drawing attention to serious adverse impacts that cannot be avoided or mitigated as well as irreversible environmental consequences and irretrievable use of natural resources

the severity of each impact including method used to measure and predict it

o comparison of the environmental consequence of each alternativeo statement conclusions indicating the preferred option and any

mitigation measures that may be required

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o non-technical summaryo index and appendices

To ensure that the EIS is comprehensive yet readily understood by decision-makers the following methods have been adopted;

o checklists – list of environmental features affected by project activities e.g. simple, descriptive, scaling, scaling-weighting, questionnaire

o overlay mapping – transparent maps showing environmental characteristics of the proposed project area with shading intensity representing different intensity of impacts

o network and system diagrams – attempts to recognise a series of impacts by listing project activities to establish cause-condition-effect relationships. It shows the interdependence of parameters

o multi-attribute utility theory – provides basis for comparing the impacts of alternatives

o matrices – simple interaction matrix which is two dimensional showing project activities on one axis and environmental parameters on the other and placing an X in the relevant intersecting cell. Quantified and graded matrix may also be used

monitoring and audit – because of the uncertainty associated with environmental impact predictions, it is important that major parameters are monitored throughout the implementation of the project to assess the validity and accuracy of predictions and to act as an early warning sign of harmful impacts allowing timely mitigations. This provides valuable information for future EIAs and generally improves the accuracy of forecasting models and methods. Monitoring detects whether the impact occurred or not, its severity or magnitude, and whether it is a result of the project. It requires the identification of a control site that should be as similar to the project site as possible except it is not affected by the impacts. Monitoring begins at the baseline study and continues through the construction and operation of the project. During scoping the parameters to be monitored, the frequency, change that is statistically significant and probability of natural changes should be outlined – the monitoring framework which saves time and money by avoiding irrelevant data collection

The process of comparing the impacts predicted in an EIA with those that actually occur after implementation of the project is referred to as auditing. It is often ignored due to the perception that EIA is just a hurdle in the approval process. Auditing not only vets the accuracy of predictions but also highlights best practise in EIS. Auditing may be hampered by;

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o inappropriate forms of predictionso design changes after EISo inadequate or non-existent monitoring

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Monitoring and audit

Prepare EIS

Impact preditions

(using models, simulation, predictive techniques)

Baseline studies

(define existing environment in terms of important parameters identified in scoopin

Scoping

(define issues, identify major impacts)

Screening

(Is the EIS required)

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