Feasibility study on expanding fuelling station with biogas supply and adapting bus depots for biogas buses in Tartu

This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union (http://europa.eu). The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of Baltic Biogas Bus and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union."

Author: Mõnus Minek OÜ

Project Manager: Jaanus Tamm, Tartu City Government

Date: 27.04.2012

Reviewed by:

Jaanus Tamm, Tartu City Government

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The Baltic Biogas Bus project will prepare for and increase the use of the eco-fuel Biogas in public transport in order to reduce environmental impact from traffic and make the Baltic region a better place to live, work and invest in.The Baltic Biogas Bus project is supported by the EU, is part of the Baltic Sea Region programme and includes cities, counties and companies within the Baltic region.

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ContentsFeasibility study on expanding fuelling station with biogas supply and adapting bus depots for biogas buses in Tartu.........................................................................................................................................1

Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study...........................................................................4

Introduction (Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)....................................................4

Summary................................................................................................................................................6

1. Current Situation (Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study).........................................7

2. Technical, Constructional, Environmental and Safety Requirements of Compressed Natural Gas Filling Stations......................................................................................................................................10

3. Analysis of Target Groups and Description of Client Base (Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)................................................................................................................................12

4. Competition Analysis(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study).................................15

5. Initial Analysis of Compressed Natural Gas Filling Stations Locations ..............................................17

6. Financial Analysis(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study).......................................19

7. Risk Assessment(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study).........................................33

8. Analysis of Environmental Impacts(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)............35

9. Conclusions and summary(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study).........................38

Biogas depot feasibility and profitability study....................................................................................39

Introduction (biogas depot feasibility and profitability study).............................................................39

1. Current Situation(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)...................................................40

3. Analysis of Target Groups and Competition(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study) ........46

4. Preliminary Analysis of a Bus Depot Location ..................................................................................46

5. Financial Analysis(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)..................................................49

6. Operating Income and Costs(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study).................................52

7. Risk Assessment(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)....................................................60

8. Conclusions and summary(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study).....................................62

ANNEXES (financial calculations)..........................................................................................................63

Annex 1. Financial Calculations for the biogas filling station ...............................................................63

Annex 2. Financial Calculations for the Depot .....................................................................................64

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Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study

Introduction (Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)

This feasibility and profitability study has been carried out within the framework of the Baltic Biogas Bus project. The strategic aim of the project is to achieve a more extensive use of biogas as a renewable energy source in the Baltic Sea region public transport. It is funded within the Baltic Sea Region Programme in the amount of 4.2 million EUR.

The greatest pollutants of city air are public transport, industrial activities and the heating of buildings. Hence, means of transport can be viewed as the main pollutants of city air. In Europe, for example, an estimated 70% of carbon dioxide, one of the causes of global warming, originates from the transportation sector1. In addition to carbon monoxide (CO), the exhaust gases of internal combustion engines contain nitric oxide (NOX) and very fine particular matter (PM) or simply soot, which all pose a health hazard. Besides global problems – climate changes brought about by the so-called greenhouse effect and the destruction of the ozone layer –, the pollutants catapulted into the air in the exhaust gases of means of transport are also the source of local problems for the life and health of living organisms, not to mention materials. Various studies have proven that air pollution has a direct impact on our health. Based on the air pollution monitoring data of Tartu City, the air pollution of Tartu shortens the life span of a human being by approximately 8 months 2. The deaths and illnesses in Europe caused by air pollution are estimated to be equal to 1.3% of GDP 3. Apart from having a negative effect on the life and wellbeing of humans, air pollution in cities is one of the main reasons for the damages suffered by building structures: the so-called acid rains rooted in acidic nitrogen and sulphur compounds corrode metal and degrade mineral construction materials 4. The soot emitted in exhaust gases stains the façades of buildings. For the purpose of reducing different global effects, several international agreements have been entered into, for example the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Copenhagen Protocol in 2009. Many areas have made cooperative efforts to diminish local impacts. The Baltic Biogas Bus, too, is a joint project between several states located in the Baltic Sea region, striving to decrease the level of air pollution in cities. Tartu City sees the commissioning of biogas buses in the Tartu public transport system as one of the direct aims of the project. In order to achieve this end, it is planned to carry out diverse studies and analyses to help clarify the possibility and feasibility of using biogas buses.

1 http://www.balticbiogasbus.eu/web/about-the-project.aspx 2 Hans Orru, Eda Merisalu; Eesti Arst 2007; 86 (6): 401-405 http://www.eestiarst.ee/static/files/001/ohusaaste_lin-nades_ja_selle_moju_inimeste_tervisele.pdf 3 Hans Orru, Eda Merisalu; Eesti Arst 2007; 86 (6): 401-405, in which WHO. The World Health Report 2002: Reducing risks, promoting healthy life. Geneva, Switzerland:

WHO; 2002.4 Antonina Zguro; https://www.vk.edu.ee/uliopilastele/Materials/RDIR/Keskkonnakaitse/ATM_Eesti.ppt

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One of the more important preliminary studies is the current biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study, the goals of which are:• To collect information on the requirements of building a compressed natural gas filling station;• To determine the costs of establishing a compressed natural gas filling station;• To determine the profitability conditions of a compressed natural gas filling station;• To determine the alternative technological solutions for building a compressed natural gas filling station, as well as their costs;• To give an evaluation to the environmental impacts caused by using compressed natural gas (CNG, biogas).

Previously, several related studies have been carried out:• The study on locations chosen for a compressed natural gas filling station; Nordic Energy

Group OÜ; 20105;• The study on Aardlapalu Landfill gases; Ecotech OÜ; 20106;• The feasibility study of biogas buses used in public transport; Assets RPM OÜ; 20107.• The commercial uses survey for Aardlapalu landfill gas; Mõnus Minek OÜ; 20108

5 Tartu City homepage: http://www.tartu.ee/data/Surugaasitanklate%20asukoha%20uuring0.ppt6 Tartu City homepage: http://www.tartu.ee/data/Aardlapalu_prygilagaaside_tekke_uuring0.ppt7 Tartu City homepage: http://www.tartu.ee/data/Surugaasibusside_tasuvusuuring0.ppt 8 Tartu City homepage: http://www.tartu.ee/data/Aardlapalu%20prygilagaaside%20kommertskasutusvoimaluste%20uuring.ppt

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Summary

This report contains biogas filling station and biogas depot feasibility and profitability study and assembles these two studies as a one study.

According to the biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study, there is practically no competition in the field of gas filling stations. However, limited experiences of using CNG in Estonia also result in a limited client base. As the price of gas has remained at a low level for a long time, and is predicted to continue to stay at a low level, it has a promising future as an engine fuel. In addition to smaller fuel costs, using gas will result in the sustainability of the environment, since fewer pollutants are emitted into the air during gas burning.

The investment volume of a fast-fill CNG filling station is ~420 000 € and the investment volume of a slow-fill CNG filling station is ~250 000 €. A larger part of the investment goes to purchasing and installing the filling station equipment. The profitability calculations of the filling stations demonstrate that the operating costs of a filling station during the 15-year-long accounting period will remain between 0,49…0,64 € per 1 kg of fuel sold. The corresponding indicators of a slow-fill station are somewhat smaller (0,51…0,6 €).

Considering the sales predictions, according to which, an important part of the sales will be made up of selling fuel to gas buses serving Tartu City urban lines, then the payback period is 5 years for a fast-fill station and 8 years for a slow-fill station.

The investment volume of a bus depot is ~1.4 million €, 86% (1.14 million €) of which is made up of the costs of building the depot building and outdoors constructions (parking lot, boundary fences, and lighting).

The profitability calculations of the bus depot demonstrate that during the first five operating years, the operating costs of the depot will remain between 665 000 €…760 000 € and the operating income will remain between 862 000 €…956 000 €. The operating total net gain will be ca 163 500 € per year. The payback period for the depot is 13 years.

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1. Current Situation (Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)

Natural Gas and BiogasIn a compressed natural gas filling station, vehicles are fuelled by methane gas (natural gas or biogas) in its gaseous form. In Estonia, natural gas is supplied by AS Eesti Gaas, virtually in a monopoly position. First steps are being taken to produce biogas – several biogas production plants are being established to produce gas from agricultural waste and manure (Jööri in Saare County, Aravete in Järva County, Ilmatsalu in Tartu County and many more). In addition, production of the so-called landfill gas has begun: gas released as a result of the degradation of biodegradable waste within a covered landfill is being collected (Väätsa Landfill in Järva County, Pääsküla Landfill in Harju County, Paikuse Landfill in Pärnu County and lately has established gas collection at Aardlapalu Landfill in Tartu County). Natural gas is a mixture of gases (CH4 + C2H6 + ... + CmHn + N2 + CO2) – primarily methane, but with smaller amounts of ethane, propane, butane, high-molecular-weight hydrocarbons and inert gases – emitting from natural sources (boreholes) by itself or as a by-product of oil production.

• Natural gas is brought to Estonia in its gaseous form and it contains: methane (CH4) 96...99%, ethane (C2H6) 0.5...1.5%, content of high-molecular-weight hydrocarbons less than 0.5%, content of inert gases less than 1.5%.

• The lower combustion threshold of natural gas is 5% (in the air, at the temperature of 0 °C); upper combustion threshold 14% (in the air, at the temperature of 0 °C). The combustion area extends as the temperature rises; for example, at the temperature of +400 °C, the com -bustion area is 3...17%. In oxygen, the combustion area is 5...60%. The combustion thresholds of the mixtures of gas and air can be modified by adding inert gases to the mix (carbon dioxide or nitrogen). If there is less than 12% of oxygen in the air, the mixture of air and gases is no longer combustible.

• Self-combustible temperature 600 °C.

• Combustible energy < 1 mJ.

Biogas is the gas produced by the anaerobic fermentation of different biodegradable materials. Many biomass resources available in Estonia are suitable for the production of biogas, such as biodegradable municipal waste, biodegradable waste from the food industry, agricultural waste, waste water sediment and mud, as well as grassy biomass9. In addition to that, it is possible to produce biogas from the gases generated by the fermentation of biodegradable matter taking place in existing landfills. Just like natural gas, biogas mainly consists of methane (see ).

9 Villu Vares, Tallinn Technical University, Department of Thermal Engineering; “Technology studies of biomass, implementing biomass technologies in Estonia"; 28.09.2007: http://www.bioenergybaltic.ee/bw_client_files/bioenergybaltic/public/img/File/Tellitud%20uuringud/Bio-massi_tehnoloogiauuringud_ja_tehnoloogiate_rakendamine_Eestis_2.pdf

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Table 1 The content of biogas produced by different biodegradable waste10

Component Municipal waste (landfill gas)Residual mud from water treatment plants Agricultural waste

% of volume % of volume % of volumeCH4 50–60 60–75 60–75 CO2 38–34 33–19 33–19 N2 5–0 1–0 1–0 O2 1–0 < 0.5 < 0.5 H2O 6 (à 40 °C) 6 (à 40 °C) 6 (à 40 °C)

Component Municipal waste (landfill gas)Residual mud from water treatment plants Agricultural waste

mg/m3 mg/m3 mg/m3H2S 100–900 1,000 – 4,000 3,000–10,000 NH3 – – 50–100 Aromaticcompounds 0–200 – –

Biogas is heavier than natural gas, since it contains more water. Still – biogas, too, is lighter than air under normal conditions, and is volatile in the case of leakages. In comparison to natural gas, the energy value of biogas is smaller (see Table 2).

Table 2 The comparison of landfill gas and natural gas11

Indicator Landfill gas Natural gasPCS KWH/m3 6.6 11.3PCI KWH/m3 6 10.3Density 0.93 0.57Mass kg/m3 1.21 0.73The Wobbe Index 6.9 14.9

Taking into account that urban living, waste water treatment and agriculture constantly produce biomass, which can in turn be used to produce biogas, then biogas is considered to be a renewable energy resource.

Gas ProductionThe existing supply of gas in a gas filling station relies upon the contracts entered into between Gazprom, the Russian national gas monopoly, and Eesti Gaas AS. The volumes of biogas feasibly sold depend on the biogas stations to be established. As constructing pipelines for gas is relatively expensive and transporting gas on trucks is ineffective, then the Tartu gas filling stations can only consider bio gas producers active close by as their suppliers for bio gas. At the moment, the plans to construct three biogas production plants in Tartu County are known:

• Aardlapalu Landfill. According to studies, the potential gas production volume of the Aardlap-alu Landfill will during the years 2011–2050 be ca 20 million normal cubic metres12. Right

10 http://www.biogas-renewable-energy.info/biogas_composition.html 11 http://www.biogas-renewable-energy.info/biogas_composition.html 12 http://www.tartu.ee/?page_id=58&lang_id=1&menu_id=6&lotus_url=/uurimused.nsf/Web/teemad/305CB09108FAA4F4C225782C00

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after covering the landfill, the volume of methane will be up to 800,000–900,000 normal cu-bic metres a year, but it is estimated that it will decline to 350,000 normal cubic metres a year in no longer than 10 years – which means under 1,000 normal cubic metres a day. As of 02/27/2012 Aardlapalu Landfill has put to work gas torch and stable landfill gas collection amount is initially 550 m3/hour.

• Ilmatsalu biogas station, a project developed by OÜ Tartu Biogaas to produce biogas on the basis of bovine manure. As the biogas produced is at the same time used to run the com-bined power and heat plant, this enterprise cannot be viewed as a possible supplier for the gas station.

• The anaerobic sediment treatment complex of waste water treatment, developed by AS Tartu Veevärk. By using the sediments from grease interceptors as well as by fermenting waste water, the annual methane production has been estimated to be 440,620m3 CH4/per year13.

Therefore, the volume used in the gas filling stations of known biogas plants can be a total of 800,000 to 1,000,000m3 of methane a year.

Compressed Natural Gas Filling StationsAt the moment, there is only two compressed natural gas filling station active in Estonia – both belonging to Eesti Gaas AS, located in Tallinn, Suur-Sõjamäe 56a and in Tartu, Tähe 135. The third CNG filling station will be established 2012 summer to Tallinn, Vinkli 2A. Eesti Gaas AS is also planning to build CNG filling stations to Pärnu and Narva. A few slow-fill systems for private users that are able fill about one or two vehicles at a time are also in use. We have no specific data about their location and consumption.

Vehicles Consuming Compressed Natural Gas There are no precise data about the existence of vehicles running on compressed natural gas in Estonia. According to the Vehicle Registration Department of the Estonian Road Administration, there are 23 vehicles in Estonia that have entered gas as their fuel source in the registry (see Table3). No differentiations have been made as to what kind of gas (liquid or compressed) the vehicles use. It is known that the national postal service AS Eesti Post have put 5 vans consuming compressed natural gas to use for delivering post in Tallinn. Eesti Gaas AS reported in 01.01.2012 that there are a total of 153 methane fuel-powered vehicles (143 cars, 7 buses, 3 trucks)14.Tallinn Bus Company has carried out tests on using CNG buses in public transport. It is not known whether the Company has purchased any biogas buses as a result.Tartu City Government has completed a procurement for urban lines regular services, as a result of which, 5 functional CNG buses are to carry passengers on Tartu City urban lines in the year 2012. In 03.03.2011 Tartu City presented for the first time 5 new Scania CNG buses.

424FCF 13 Environmental Investment Centre, AS Tartu Veevärk, OÜ Mõnus Minek; the final report of the process-oriented research and development "The possibilities of using biogas obtained by fermenting waste water sediments in Tartu City public transport"; Ääsmäe-Tallinn-Tartu 2009.14 E-mail: Valdo Vaker (AS Eesti Gaas)

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Table 3 The number of vehicles according to fuel sources in Estonia as of 01.01.2010 (source: Vehicle Registration Department of the Estonian Road Administration)

Type of fuel In totalPassenger

carsGoods

vehicles Buses MotorcyclesPETROL 457,245 417,287 21,009 325 18,624DIESEL 192,272 128,385 60,094 3,792 1GAS 23 17 6 0 0ELECTRICITY 6 3 2 0 1In total 649,546 545,692 81,111 4,117 18,626

2. Technical, Constructional, Environmental and Safety Requirements of Compressed Natural Gas Filling Stations

As compressed natural gas filling stations are a new idea, then the details of constructing and using them are not regulated by law. Different existing legislations provide requirements for using gaseous fuel, pressure equipment and equipment in general. The following Estonian legislation is related to compressed natural gas filling stations and constructing them.

• Gaseous Fuel Safety Act, which provides requirements for o Gaseous fuels, appliances burning gaseous fuels, fittings of appliances burning gaseous

fuels, and gaseous fuel installations. o The placing on the market, putting into service and the use of appliances burning

gaseous fuels and of fittings of appliances burning gaseous fuels, and for the procedure for the conformity assessment and attestation thereof.Specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 25 of 28 June 2002 on “The requirements for gas appliances and fittings and for the provision of information and attachment of conformity marks thereto”. Gas appliances subject to registration have been provided by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 42 of 1 July 2002 on “The list of lifting equipment and gas installations subject to registration, the list of requirements for electrical installations, lifting equipment, gas installations and pressure equipments subject to registration as well as the owner, supervisor of the use, person in control of an electrical installation and technical inspection thereof, and the formal requirements for such information and the procedure for the submission and registration thereof". The registration of gas appliances has been provided by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 144 of 25 November 2005 on “Procedures for registering pressure and lifting equipment and gas installations”.

o The construction, putting into service and use of gaseous fuel installations. Specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 99 of 5 October 2009 on “Requirements on gas installations, installation of gas appliances and construction of gas installations”. The protection zones for gas installations have been specified by the Government of the Republic with the regulation No. 212 of 2 July 2002 on “The extent of a gas installation protection zone and the maintenance zone of a category D gas installation”.

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o The supervisors of the use of gas installations, for persons in charge of gas work, persons manufacturing permanent joints for gas installations and for the procedure for the conformity assessment and attestations of such persons. Specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 54 of 19 June 2008 on “The procedure for assessing and attesting the conformity of the supervisor of the use of pressure equipment, lifting equipment, gas installation and machine and the person in charge of pressure equipment work, lifting equipment work, gas works and machine works and the person manufacturing the permanent joints which contribute to the pressure resistance of the metal piping of the gas installation” and by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 42 of 1 July 2002 on “The list of lifting equipment and gas installations subject to registration, the list of requirements for electrical installations, lifting equipment, gas installations and pressure equipments subject to registration as well as the owner, supervisor of the use, person in control of an electrical installation and technical inspection thereof, and the formal requirements for such information and the procedure for the submission and registration thereof”.

o Gas work, gas contractors, notified bodies, assessment and attestation of persons, the technical inspection and the organisation of state supervision. The area of technical inspection has been specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 32 of 17 March 2005 on “The cases, procedure, frequency and terms for the technical inspection of gas installation and appliances”.

• Pressure Equipment Safety Act. As a filling station contains equipment to create pressure and containers for preserving gas under pressure, it is necessary to follow the Pressure Equipment Safety Act, which, with the aim of ensuring the safety of persons, property and the environment, provides requirements:

o Pressure equipment and pressure assemblies, and for the placing on the market, putting into service, use, installation, reconstruction and repair thereof; The requirements for pressure equipment are specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 129 of 7 May 2004 on “Requirements on pressure equipment and the procedure for the assessment and attestation of the conformity of pressure equipment”. The requirements for pressure equipment work are specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 30 of 28 June 2002 on “Requirements for pressure equipment work”. The protection zone of pressure equipment is established by the Government of the Republic with the regulation No. 213 of 2 July 2002 on “The extent of the protection zone of pressure equipment”;

o The procedure for the conformity assessment and attestation of pressure equipment and pressure assemblies; The conditions of registering pressure equipment and attesting the conformity of pressure equipment to requirements have been established by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 54 of 19 June 2008 on “The procedure for assessing and attesting the conformity of the supervisor of the use of pressure equipment, lifting equipment, gas installation and machine and the person in charge of pressure equipment work, lifting equipment work, gas works and machine works and the person manufacturing the permanent joints which contribute to the pressure resistance of the metal piping of the gas installation” and by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No.

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42 of 1 July 2002 on “The list of lifting equipment and gas installations subject to registration, the list of requirements for electrical installations, lifting equipment, gas installations and pressure equipments subject to registration as well as the owner, supervisor of the use, person in control of an electrical installation and technical inspection thereof, and the formal requirements for such information and the procedure for the submission and registration thereof”.

o Supervisors of the use of pressure equipment and pressure assemblies, for persons in charge of pressure equipment work, and for the procedure for the conformity assessment and attestation of such persons; The requirements for the competency of the operator of pressure equipment are established by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 138 of 25 May 2004 on “The list of pressure equipment for the operation of which a certificate of competency is required from the person operating it and the procedure for the assessment and attestation of operators”.

o Designated bodies, persons performing pressure equipment work, technical inspection bodies, authorities assessing and attesting the conformity of persons, and impartial designated bodies; Specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 54 of 19 June 2008 on “The procedure for assessing and attesting the conformity of the supervisor of the use of pressure equipment, lifting equipment, gas installation and machine and the person in charge of pressure equipment work, lifting equipment work, gas works and machine works and the person manufacturing the permanent joints which contribute to the pressure resistance of the metal piping of the gas installation”.

o Technical inspection and the organisation of state supervision.The procedure for technical inspection has been established by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications with the regulation No. 35 of 24 March 2005 on “The procedure and frequency of technical inspection of pressure equipment”.

• The general management and completion of the construction of the filling station is regulated by the Building Act.

• The planning of the filling station within Tartu city is regulated by the Planning Act and the comprehensive plan of Tartu City.

• Restrictions to the station being located on the sites presented in the study of preliminary location choices can be made by the Roads Act and the Electrical Safety Act.

3. Analysis of Target Groups and Description of Client Base (Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)

Target GroupsThe use of gas as motor fuel is not very common in Estonia. Considering the issue from the cause-and-effect point of view, this has been due to the lack of both suitable filling stations as well as vehicles running on that kind of fuel. Economic, but also environmental conditions could be important catalysts for the use of gas. As the price of gas (both liquid and compressed) has continuously remained lower than the price of both petrol and diesel during the last years, a more price-sensitive client could decide in favour of a gas-fuelled vehicle. Yet, let us not rule out enterprises, a large part of whose expenses can be attributed to fuel consumption. Another key factor in bringing about a more extensive use of gas appliances could be regulations related to the

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pollution of city environment, making concessions to less polluting means of transportation or banning vehicles whose indicators exceed the established pollution norms. Studies show that burning gas emits considerably less pollutants to the environment than burning petrol or diesel fuel. Since the use of gas as motor fuel is not very widespread in Estonia, no existing target groups can be assessed. This study shall evaluate the target groups who have shown an interest in using gas-fuelled vehicles or could potentially use more gas-fuelled vehicles once a gas filling station was built. According to the assumptions made, the companies with large vehicle fleets who are mainly active in cities have the most potential to make up the target group of compressed natural gas filling stations. These large-scale customers ensure that the station's selling volumes remain stable. At the same time, the number of customers demanding large amounts of gas is relatively limited. When it comes to increasing consumption volumes, private car owners have the most potential. Supposedly, companies need fuel most urgently during weekday mornings. Even though filling the gas containers of vehicles as big as lorries and buses only takes up to 5 minutes, the ability to serve all the customers during the morning rush hour is of utmost importance to a filling station.

Bus Companies One of the relatively extensive transportation sectors, active mainly within city limits, is public transport. In Estonia, buses with diesel engines predominantly serve city and county bus lines. Since there are only a few gas filling stations in Estonia and the size of the gas container on a vehicle is restrictive to driving distance, it is not likely that gas buses will be used for intercity transport in the near future. Hence, the company serving the Tartu urban lines has real potential of becoming a customer to a gas filling station. As a result of the public procurement carried out by the Tartu City Government and titled “Public regular services within Tartu City between 01.01.2011 and 30.06.2017”, by the year 2012, five compressed natural gas buses should be serving urban lines. According to the information obtained from Tartu City Government, long-term plans foresee the use of 25 (bio)gas buses in public transport. Based on the data presented in the “Feasibility study of biogas buses used in public transport” 15, the annual amount of kilometres travelled by a single urban line bus in is 79,289km/per year; the average fuel consumption is 37.35kg/100km. Therefore, the annual fuel consumption for one bus would be around 30,000 kg (90kg/per day); for five buses, ca 150,000 kg (450kg/per day) and for 25 buses 750,000 kg per year (2 250kg/per day). Considering the distances, gas-fuelled buses can feasibly be used on most of the inner-county bus lines of Tartu. A compressed natural gas bus can drive an estimated of 300 kilometres on a single tank filling (100–150 kg). At the moment, the Tartu county lines are served by OÜ Tarbus 16 and since the beginning of year 2011 AS Sebe operates the city bus lines. As the same company serves the urban lines as well, the number of buses used on county lines should be around 80. It is not possible to predict the replacement of diesel buses with gas buses. According to the percentage of gas buses planned to be used on Tartu urban lines (10% in the year 2012 and 50% in the long run), the potential demand for gas may reach up to 800 kilograms a day. If the network of gas filling stations was expanded, it would also be possible to use gas buses on long-distance lines.Due to the timetables of urban line buses, the filling demand is estimated to be the greatest in the mornings before starting work or in the evenings after finishing work. Bus companies as the target group of a filling station are what contribute significantly to determining the range of a filling station’s territory. Given the size of buses, a filling station has to offer access and manoeuvring room for no less than 18-meter-long articulated buses.

15 Assets RMP OÜ; “Feasibility study of biogas buses used in public transport”; Tartu 201016 OÜ Tarbus homepage: http://www.tarbus.ee

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Waste Management CompaniesLarge vehicle fleets are also owned by companies active in the transport of waste. The areas of waste transport organised by Tartu City are covered by Veolia Keskkonnateenused AS and Ragn-Sells AS. These two are the biggest waste management companies in Estonia and use more than 200 special waste transport vehicles. Around 13 waste loads are transported each day between Tartu and the transhipment station located on the territory of Aardlapalu Landfill17, which means that one waste transport vehicle travels over 400 km per day (the distance from downtown Tartu to Aardlapalu Landfill is 15.5 km). This is why waste transporters can be seen as attractive clients by gas filling stations. On the one hand, contracts of carriage are relatively long-term: the contracts for organised waste transport of Tartu City are entered into for three years. That means waste transporters are more prone to invest further funds in gas vehicles. On the other hand, these vehicles travel fairly short distances, and saving on fuel costs is an important factor. Waste management companies use special vehicles that are quite bulky, meaning that a filling station has to be easily accessible. The most suitable location for a filling station could be near the site where the vehicles are parked at night (Veolia – Tähe 108, Ragn-Sells – Sepa 26) or on the way to their destination.

Companies Providing Taxi ServicesAccording to the statistics of 2012, there were 398 active taxi drivers in Tartu 18. The large number of taxis in urban traffic in Tartu makes them a desirable target group, who, aiming for cost-effectiveness, are likely to install a gas application on their vehicle or buy a car fuelled by compressed natural gas.

Other Transportation-Intensive CompaniesIn addition to the aforementioned enterprises, a gas filling station could gain clients from among the companies who are connected to transport inside the city and have a large vehicle fleet – such as different transport companies that deliver goods to consumers from wholesale warehouses or logistics centres, and why not even companies delivering food or those active in road and street maintenance. One such who has experience using gas vehicles is AS Eesti Post, who has bought totally 18 CNG commercial vans.

Private VehiclesData from EUROSTAT19 state that in the year 2009, there were around 285 million registered vehicles (motor vehicles, except for motorcycles and trailers) in Europe. In Estonia, that number was (according to Eurostat) 646,000. In the range of 2001 – 2011 there has been a 14,1% increase of NGVs in Europe20. Considering the estimates about CNG vehicles made on the web site www.ngvaeurope.eu21, then the percentage of gas vehicles out of all vehicles in Europe is 0,36%. Given the same percentage, the amount of CNG vehicles in Estonia would be around 2325. However, it is known that CNG engines are more commonly used on lorries and buses. Private car manufacturers have a limited amount of vehicles with compressed natural gas engines in their product list; often, compressed natural gas is simply an additional alternative in cars running on petrol – the so-called petrol + gas cars.

17 According to the data of Tartu City waste management plan, the annual amount of municipal waste is 40,000 tonnes, an average load on a waste transportation lorry weighs 12 tonnes, the amount of work days is 260: 40,000/12/260=12.818 Department of Communal Services of Tartu City Government 19 Eurostat web page: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu data as of 15.08.201020 Web page: http://www.iangv.org/tools-resources/statistics.html (21.03.2012)21 Web page: http://www.ngvaeurope.eu/european-ngv-statistics (21.03.2012)

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Table 4 Amount of vehicles

Vehicles in total Vehicles with CNG enginesAmount Percentage Calculated

1,000 1,000 1,000Europe 285,000 1014 0.36%Estonia in total 646 0.36% 1.8Private cars in Estonia 546 0.36% 1.6

4. Competition Analysis(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)

Compressed Natural Gas Filling StationsAs there are not many CNG vehicles in Estonia, competition for clients is not fierce either. At the moment, there is only two compressed natural gas filling stations in Estonia, located in Tallinn, Suur-Sõjamäe 56a, and in Tartu, Tähe 135, both belonging to Eesti Gaas AS. The stations have a fast-fill system. Customers can pay for the filling with a special Eesti Gaas filling station card. The price of gas at the both filling station as of 21.03.2012 was 0,779 €/kg. Eesti Gaas has clear thought about building a third compressed gas filling station to Tallinn, Vinkli 2A. In addition, Eesti Gaas AS has plans to build in the near future CNG filling stations to Narva and Pärnu as well. Accordingly, there is no information about any other companies planning to establish a CNG filling station in Tartu.There are several companies in Estonia who are able to install small gas pumps with a slow-fill system suitable for household use and for one vehicle (for example: OÜ Anrebell, Kristen Grupp OÜ), but there is no information as to how many filling stations like these have been established in Estonia.

Other Filling StationsAccording to the information found on the homepages of the main fuel sellers in Estonia, there are 27 filling stations in Tartu (see Table 5). Of these, it is possible to buy liquid gas in AS Olerex on Aardla St and in Vostok Oil OÜ filling station (Ringtee 28).

Table 5 Filling stations in Tartu City

Company Trade markFilling stations in Tartu City

Alexela Oil AS Alexela 5Eesti Statoil AS Statoil, 1-2-3 6Neste Eesti AS Neste 5Lukoil Eesti AS Lukoil 3Sevenoil Est OÜ 7 2Alvistra AS Alvistra 1Olerex AS Olerex 3

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Company Trade markFilling stations in Tartu City

Go Oil AS GoOil 1VostokOil OÜ Vostok 1Jonny AS Favora 1In total 28

Fuel PricesFuel sellers claim that the prices of fuel are largely dependant on the price of fuel on the global market. If the prices of petrol and diesel fuels react to the changes in global prices quite fast, then the price of gas sold by Eesti Gaas is connected to the average price of heavy and light heating oil over six months. Hence, the price of gas reacts more slowly. Figure 1 demonstrates the changes in fuel prices. The prices presented in the figure mirror the prices of the more common fuels (95 petrol and diesel fuels) in comparison to natural gas (CNG). The prices of petrol and diesel are based on the prices of the Statoil filling station located at Paldiski mnt 106, Tallinn, presented in the price observation portal www.superhind.ee. The price of gas is based on the information obtained from Eesti Gaas AS about the CNG filling station (Suur-Sõjamäe 56a, Tallinn) prices on the retail selling price of gas. The prices on the figure include VAT.

Figure 1 The price of fuels in Estonian filling stations between 02.11.2009...20.03.2012. The price of 95 petrol and diesel fuel (€/l) in the Statoil filling station based on the data of the web page www.superhind.ee, CNG price (€/kg) on the data of AS Eesti Gaas.

The figure perfectly demonstrates the stability of the price of gas compared to the prices of petrol and diesel. Price stability could be one of the key marketing strategies of Eesti Gaas AS. Looking at the price changes of natural gas offered by the company to residential customers (gas usage more than 750m3/per year), it can be seen that the price of gas has, during the period presented on Fig 1, changed once. Since 1.09.2009, the price of gas for residential customers, along with network service charges and excise duty, was 0,47€/m3; since 1.01.2012, it was 0,49€/m3.By making future estimates on the price of gas sold in filling stations, based on the changes in the price list of Eesti Gaas AS (an increase in the current price of gas in Eesti Gaas filing stations of 0,779€/kg, compared to the increase in the price of natural gas sold to residential customers consuming more than 750m3/per year, it can be concluded that even in the case of a hypothetical

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increase in the price of CNG, it would still cost less than petrol and diesel fuel.

Potential for Compressed Natural Gas Filling Stations There are two CNG filling stations in Estonia at the moment. Modern gas containers on private cars can hold an average of 15 kg of natural gas, enabling them to drive 200 to 250 km. This could be the reason there are so few CNG cars in Estonia. As it is estimated that the costs of running a gas engine are up to 120% smaller than those of running a petrol or diesel fuelled engine (see Table 6).

Table 6 Estimated fuel costs across different fuel types

Vehicle Fuel

Average fuel consumption Fuel consumption €/km

unit consumption €/km€/ 100km

Compared to CNG

Private car*Opel Zafira 1.6 CNG EcoFlex Cosmo (69kW) gas kg/100km 5 0,03 3,39 0.00%Opel Zafira 1.7 CDTI EcoFlex (81kW) diesel l/100km 5.7 0,06 6,28 +85.52%Opel Zafira 1.6 EcoFlex (85kW) petrol l/100km 7.1 0,08 7,83 +131.08%Bus**MAN LionCity CNG 12m gas kg/100km 37.35 0,25 25,30 0.00%Average Tallinn urban line bus diesel l/100km 39.23 0,43 43,25 +70.93%

* http://media.opel.com/media/intl/en/vehicles/opel/zafira/2009.brand_opel.html** A pilot study by MAN and Tallinn City Government

Estimating that the average amount a private car travels per year is 30,000 km, the financial savings of using gas are ca 830 €/per year when compared to a car with a diesel-fuelled engine, and ca 1280 €/per year when compared to a car with a petrol-fuelled engine. When buses are compared, the annual travelled distance of 80,000 km means that a gas-fuelled engine saves ca 14 380 eur/per year on fuel costs. Given the significantly lower price of gas, it can be predicted that the number of gas-fuelled vehicles is on the rise.

5. Initial Analysis of Compressed Natural Gas Filling Stations Locations

The report on the choices for CNG filling station locations prepared by Nordic Energy Group 22

presents the analysis for the possible locations for a filling station. By comparing the pros and cons of different locations, the following were selected as primary choices:

- Sepa St 26

- Turu St 47

- Ringtee St 8

22 Nordic Energy Group; “Report on the choices for the locations of compressed natural gas filling stations”; Tallinn 2010.

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- Ringtee St 25

- Ringtee St 77

In addition to the criteria of the aforementioned location analysis, this feasibility study takes into account the possible costs of building a filling station in different locations. All of the aforementioned registered immovables are, by the Tartu City comprehensive plan, located on areas designated for small and business enterprises or directing functions of service enterprises. Hence, it is possible to establish a filling station on the chosen registered immovables. What follows is an analysis of the conditions of building a CNG filling station in the locations mentioned.

Sepa St 26

By order No. 858 of 3 July 2007 by Tartu City Government, a detailed plan for the registered immovable was initiated. The plan aimed at obtaining building rights for a warehouse and two office buildings. The detailed plan is not adopted. A new detailed plan has to be prepared to obtain building rights for a gas filling station. Considering the goals and access points of the initiated detailed plan, the most suitable spot for a filling station would be on the asphalt lot located next to Sepa St. Restrictions are made by a 110 kV overhead transmissions line, located at the northern edge of the Sepa St road area. The location is easily accessible. Making a left turn to Turu St over two lanes during rush hour can prove to be a problem. It would be necessary to rebuild the intersection of Sepa and Turu St to be regulated by traffic lights. During the period 2010 – 2012 no continued process has been taken of this lot.According to the information gathered from AS Eesti Gaas, the closest existing category B piping system to the registered immovable is located 114 metres away, with a connection charge of 10 864 €+ VAT.

Turu St 47

By order No. 28 of 21 November 2002 by Tartu City Government, a detailed plan for the registered immovable was adopted. The existing detailed plan has established access to the registered immovable only from Turu St, eliminating the possibility of making left turns. A new detailed plan is necessary to build a filling station. An exit to Sepa St has to be created, enabling making left turns to Turu St. It is complicated to make a left turn to Turu St from Sepa St on rush hour due to heavy traffic; an intersection regulated by traffic lights is required. The closest existing category B piping system to the registered immovable is located 250 metres away, with a connection charge of 13 741 €+ VAT.

Ringtee St 8

Establishing a filling station requires drawing up a detailed plan if station causes restrictions of using neighbour property. Considering the so-called Eastern Roundabout plan, the registered immovable can be accessed through the Ringtee St collector road, which is why both the right and left turn off the immovable should be trouble-free: the main road of Ringtee St should cover most of the traffic. What could be a problem is the fact that one can access the collector road only from the crossings of Turu-Ringtee and Võru-Ringtee streets. There is no way to drive straight to the filling station while passing it. In the future, this may mean the loss of randomly passing customers. Tartu City Government has initiated preparation of this detailed plan lot in 13.09.2011 No.1022 -want to extend the boiler house and the part of the business plot.

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The closest existing category B piping system to the registered immovable is located 8 metres away, with a connection charge of 2 939 €+ VAT. This registered immovable also has an existing gas utility line and a connection to Anne Soojus AS, the so-called Ropka boiler plant.

Ringtee St 25

Building a filling station requires drawing up a detailed plan. At the moment, the registered immovable holds an administrative building and a bus parking lot belonging to the transportation company GoBus. Access pros and cons are similar to Ringtee St 8. The closest existing category B piping system to the registered immovable is located 40 metres away, with a connection charge of 2 876 €+VAT.

Ringtee St 77

Drawing up a detailed plan for the registered immovable has been initiated for constructing a business building (by order No. 221 of 19 February 2008 by Tartu City Government). The decision eliminated the possibility of constructing a filling station. It is necessary to initiate a new detailed plan to consider building a filling station. Considering the intersection of the Tallinn-Tartu-Luhamaa highway and the Jõhvi-Tartu-Valga highway or the so-called Riia Roundabout, access to the registered immovable can only be granted by making a right turn from the Valga-Elva direction. From other directions, the filling station would only be accessible through Aardla St, making the drive to the station about 1.5 km longer (exiting from the roundabout through Aardla St and on to Ringtee St 77). The closest existing category B piping system to the registered immovable is located 2 to 8 metres away, with a connection charge of 1 981 €+ VAT.

6. Financial Analysis(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)

MethodologyThe aim of preparing a financial analysis for a gas filling station was to determine the payback period of a compressed natural gas filling station and give an evaluation to the economic profitability of the project.The financial analysis of a gas filling station has been prepared as a typical investment project analysis, where the projects deemed successful are the ones where the net current asset value NVA of the discounted values of the investment cash-flows and the cash-flow resulting from the operating income and operating costs ratio has to be bigger than 0, and the internal rate of return IRR on the project has to be equal to or bigger than the discount rate used in the calculations.The financial calculations were made in the table calculation programme Microsoft Excel 2007, where the cash-flows (cost/income ratio) have been calculated by simple mathematical operations; the financial indicators are calculated by using the following functions:

• The discounted net current asset value has been calculated, using the function NVA (discount rate; period cash-flows).

• The internal rate of return on the project has been calculated, using the function IRR (period cash-flows).

The incremental cumulative cash-flows method was used to calculate the payback period. On the

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basis of the discount rate, it is checked, on which year after the project has ended, does the net current asset value of the incremental cumulative cash-flows become positive and stay positive during the period of assessment. The payback period is a specific period in years, beginning with making the investment and ending with the year that profitability is achieved.

Basic Data

Cost of InvestmentThe potential total costs of building a compressed natural gas filling station in the locations suggested as a result of the report on the choices for CNG filling station locations prepared by Nordic Energy Group OÜ5 have been considered while preparing the biogas filling station profitability study. Both direct costs on the CNG station equipment and the construction of the station itself as well as the essential accompanying investment costs of connecting to the gas utility line and power network, building access ways, preparing plans and purchasing the land necessary have been taken into account. Direct costs result from price offers made; accompanying costs are estimated. The estimations are made on the basis of the following data:

• The costs of building a filling station – the price indication obtained from the representative of AS AGA Eesti on building a filling station in Sweden.

• Establishing gas utility lines etc – cost based on the price calculations presented by AS Eesti Gaas.

• Connecting to the power network – an ampere charge according to the price list of AS Eesti Energia (EE) at connecting to the power network. According to the requirements of EE, there will be an additional charge for building lines, if the closest substation is located more than 400 m from the connection point.

• Cost of the plan – the cost of a detailed plan for establishing building rights for a compressed natural gas filling station in Tartu City, as estimated by Pärnu ERKAS Instituut OÜ.

• Cost of a registered immovable – the average selling price €/m2 of immovables designated for specific purposes on business and production area lands in the stated area, as given on the real estate website www.kv.ee.

Adding these costs up to determine the cost of a filling station in each location has proved to be a basis for the locations list. The profitability assessments have been made on the basis of the costs of the most advantageous filling station location.

Accounting Period and Residual ValueThe accounting period of the project is 15 years. The equipment and civil engineering works of the filling station shall be amortised in the accounts of the accounting period of 15 years, which is why at the end of the accounting period, their residual value shall be 0. The useful life of the registered immovable of the filling station is 50 years in the accounts. At the end of the 15-year-long accounting period, the residual value of the registered immovable shall be considered.

Discount Rate The discounted values of cash-flows have been used to assess the profitability of the project. The nominal discount rate k1=9.06 has been used as the discount rate. The nominal discount rate has been calculated on the basis of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and inflation (f) (see Table 7).

• The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been calculated on the basis of the formula WACC= kd x Wd + ke x We, where

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- kd is the price of loan capital, which is dependent on base rate – EURIBOR and the bank’s risk premium. EURIBOR values in the calculations are the 6-month EURIBOR rates as of 21.03.2012 – 1,586%. The bank's risk premium is an estimated 3%. Kd=1,586+3=4,586%.

- Ke is the price of equity capital, calculated on the basis of the formula ke=kd+RP=4,586%+5%=9,586%. RP is the risk premium of equity capital, the value of which has found to be an estimated 5% in the calculations.

- Wd is the percentage of borrowed capital. In calculations, it is an estimated 70%, as banks generally require a minimum of 30% cost-sharing;

- We is the percentage of equity capital in the investment. An estimated 30% in the calcu-lations.

• Inflation f=2,8%. Inflation is based on the arithmetic mean of the period 2011…2013 of the harmonised index of consumer prices presented in the economic prognosis of the Bank of Es-tonia23.

Table 7 Prices and discount rates of capitals

1 Accounting period Year 152 EURIOBOR Euribor 6-month Euribor rate as of 21.03.2012 1,586%3 Risk premium of bank RPd Estimated risk premium of bank at issuing loan 3%2 Price of borrowed capital Kd Euribor+ROd 4,586%3 Risk premium of equity capital RPe Estimated 5.0%4 Price of equity capital Ke kd+RP 9,586%5 Percentage of borrowed capital Wd 70.0%6 Percentage of equity capital We 30.0%7 Weighted average cost of capital WACC kd*Wd+ke*We 6,085%8 Inflation rate F 2.8%9 Nominal discount rate k1 (1+WACC)*(1+f)-1 9.06%

Macroeconomic Input DataIn making predictions about the income and costs of the current analysis, the changes in consumer prices according to the spring prognosis 2010 by the Ministry of Finance24 were generally used. The prognosis of the Ministry of Finance was drawn up for the period of 2010…2014, where it is foreseen that the harmonised index of consumer prices shall change from 0.8% in 2010 to 2.7% in 2014. The changes in the consumer price index occurring later than 2014 are taken to be equal to the indicators of the year 2014.The labour costs predictions use the data presented in the spring prognosis 2010 by the Ministry of Finance on the changes in labour costs (nominal increase in average wages). The prognosis of the Ministry of Finance was drawn up for the period of 2010…2014, where it is foreseen that the average wages shall increase from -2.8% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2014. The changes in the consumer price index of the accounting period of the analysis occurring later than 2014 are taken to be equal to the

23 Homepage of the Bank of Estonia: http://www.eestipank.info/pub/et/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/ylevaade/_2011_02/_3_211.pdf?ok=24 Spring prognosis 2010 of the Ministry of Finance: http://www.fin.ee/doc.php?105048

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indicators of the year 2014.Seeing how AS Eesti Gaas (hereinafter EG) as a wholesale seller of natural gas, who is practically in a monopoly position, uses the price of light and heavy heating oil on the global market as a component in the price formula, then the prognoses of crude oil prices made by the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA)25 are taken into account while making future estimates as to the purchase price of the gas to be sold in filling stations.

Taxes • Cost without VAT is used in the calcu-

lations of the current analysis.

• Excise duty has been added to fuel prices.

• In calculating labour costs, the national taxes on labour costs paid by the employer have been noted separately, including social tax 33% and unemployment insurance tax 1.4%.

Operating Income and Costs The current financial analysis assesses the profitability indicators of two types of filling stations: a 5-slot filling station with a slow-fill system to be used in a bus depot and a filling station with a fast-fill system for public use.

Operating Income As a slow-fill station is to be used primarily within enterprises, then only the consumption of gas buses has been taken into account in the income section of the profitability calculations for that kind of a station. The consumption of other CNG vehicles is added in the calculations for a fast-fill station. The income section for both filling station types is made up of fuel selling only, the calculations of which are based on the following data:

• The selling price of fuel. The calculations make use of the selling price of 0,65 € /kg without VAT (0,779 € with VAT) displayed in the AS Eesti Gaas filling station in Tallinn. That price has been modified for different periods according to the average changes in fuel prices during the previous six months on the global market. Excise duty changes are not taken into ac-count, as there is no way of adequately foreseeing them.

• The consumption of fuel. The volumes of two consumer groups have been taken account in predicting the consumption volumes:

o The buses serving Tartu City urban lines.

25 U.S Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/speeches/newell121409.ppt

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Figure 2. EIA prediction on crude oil prices 2010. (Kõrge –High, Madal – Low)

Number of buses. As the predicted number of the gas-fuelled buses serving Tartu City is known, the main component of the estimated consumption volume is the fuel demand of buses. Tartu city private bus company AS Sebe started to use 5 CNG buses in March 2011. The experiences of using CNG in buses by the Tartu bus company have been very positive and the bus com-pany is planning to enlarge the number of CNG buses in city bus fleet and the number of CNG buses will rise to 25. Also purified Aardlapalu landfill gas is planned to use as a fuel source as renewable energy for CNG buses26. The period between 2012…2015 has been considered to be a test period and no more buses shall be added during these years. As of 2016, it is predicted that two gas buses shall be added each year. The buses shall be added until the 14th operating year, by which the number of gas-fuelled buses should have reached 25.

Fuel costs. The fuel costs calculations are based on the results of a study car-ried out by AS Sebe. Study showed that the average fuel cost of a CNG bus within Tartu City was 39kg/per 100 km (period March – November 2011)27.

Annual distance travelled. It is estimated that the annual distance travelled by an urban line bus is 72,000 km (Tartu urban lines in total 3,6 million kilo-metres; 51 buses). The consumption volume of a single bus is 72,000/100*39=28,080 kg/per year.

o Other CNG vehicles.

Predictions about the use of gas-fuelled vehicles are difficult to make. In the course of the financial analysis, various enterprises located in Tartu were questioned about the perspectives of them using vehicles with a gas engine. AS Eesti Post is planning to purchase more CNG vehicles if CNG filling station will be established to Tartu city. In addition to this fact, as a result of IEE GasHighWay project WP3 many companies are seriously considering using CNG vehicles in their fleet (MAZ Eesti OÜ, AS Est-Trans Kaubaveod etc)28. The list of possible consumers also includes waste management enterprises, taxi services providers and street maintenance companies.

The profitability calculations associate the predicted consumption volumes of filling stations with the consumption of gas-fuelled buses. The prepared prognosis is con-servative. There are no predictions about adding gas-fuelled vehicles to Tartu during the first operating year. The following year, the estimated consumption volume should make up to 10% of the consumption of buses, which will increase by 10% each year, until it will stabilise on the 6th year at 50% of the consumption of the buses of the corresponding year. Converting the annual consumption volume of oth-

26 Tartu city web page: http://www.tartu.ee/?lang_id=1&menu_id=6&page_id=3964 (22.03.2012)

27 Tõnu Ruusamäe (AS Sebe) presentation at GasHighWay & SPIN seminar (6.12.2011): http://www.lote.ut.ee/orb.aw/class=file/action=preview/id=1096044/T%F5nu+Ruusam%E4e_EST.pdf28 IEE GasHighWay WP4 interviewed transport companies (20.03.2011)

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er vehicles to the annual consumption volume of a single urban line bus in Tartu, a bus equivalent, means that the gas demand will grow from an estimated 0.5 bus equivalent on the 2nd operating year to 12.5 bus equivalents on the 14th operating year.

The consumption in total will increase by 134,460kg/per year until it reaches 1,008,450kg/per year by 2025.

Operating CostsThe following costs are considered to be the operating costs of filling stations:

• Purchasing fuel. The wholesale purchase price of the natural gas used in the filling station is taken to be the price of gas in the AS Eesti Gaas price list29 for clients consuming more than 750m3/per year – 0,334 €/m3, plus the price of network services 0,05301 €/m3 and excise duty for natural gas 0,02345 €/m3, in total 0,41046 €/m3 (0,49255 €/m3 with VAT). Since sup-plying gas to a filling station is bound by a special contract, then in the profitability calcula -tions, the increased selling price for residential customers has been increased by a further 10%.

• Personnel costs. The personnel costs of a filling station are seen to be the wages of two em-ployees:

o The wages of a fuelling specialist. A fuelling specialist is the person, who, in a slow-fill station, connects the buses to the gas pumps and monitors the work of the filling sta-tion. In a fast-fill station, he instructs first-time station users, issues filling station cus-tomer cards and monitors the work of the filling station. The following assumptions have been made in calculating the fuelling specialist’s wages:

- Average wages 851,88 €/month, net value. Based on the data issued by Statistics Estonia about the 1st quarter of the year 2010 in the Classification of Economic Activ-ities area “wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles”;

- Taxes on labour costs, paid by the employer: social tax 33% and unemployment in-surance premium 1.4%;

- Work load 0.2 positions in the case of a fast-fill system and 0.5 positions in the case of a slow-fill system.

o The wages of a station manager 947,94 €/per month, net value. Additional labour costs are attributable to the station manager – the leader of the enterprise, whose job description includes dealing with clients and suppliers, entering into contracts etc. The following assumptions have been made in calculating the station manager’s wages:

29 AS Eesti Gaas home page: http://www.gaas.ee/hinnakiri2012, as of 22.03.2012

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- Average wages 851,88 €/per month, net value. Based on the data issued by Statist-ics Estonia about the 1st quarter of the year 2010 in the Classification of Economic Activities area “activities of head offices, managing services”;

- Taxes on labour costs, paid by the employer: social tax 33% and unemployment in-surance premium 1.4%;

- Work load 0.5 positions.

• Management costs.

o Electricity 3959,98 €/year. The price of energy is based on the price list presented on the AS Eesti Energia homepage https://www.energia.ee/et/business /electricity/rates for business clients as of 22.03.2012. The following assumptions have been made in calculating the cost of electricity: the main circuit breaker 96A, one meter, electricity demand ca 110kW per day. Energy costs are made up of the costs on the filling station’s equipment and the costs on street lights.

o Maintenance and repair costs. About 2%/per year of the initial investment in equip-ment and construction has been considered for maintenance and repair costs.

• Administration costs.

o Costs on communication – costs on the office's Internet connection and fixed tele -phone service. The price is based on the price calculator on the home page of AS Eli-on Business Solution package30, according to which, the calculated cost of the service (the package includes Internet speed 5Mbit/2Mbit, Wi-Fi (Thomson TG789), 1 phone number, homepage domain) is 38 €/per month.

o The mobile phone costs of 53,63 € are based on the AS EMT service package MINU 1200, whose price with VAT is 64,36 €.

o Transportation costs (95,87 €/per month) are considered to be the compensation for the station's employees' private cars: 0,19 €/km with a limit of 500 km per month.

o Office supplies. Supplies needed around the office, such as paper, printing ink, pens and so on. In the case of a slow-fill station, these costs have been considered to be 76,69 €/per year. In the case of a fast-fill station, additional costs on station cards have to be taken into account, so the cost of office supplies rises up to 153,39 €/per year.

• Purchased services.

o Accounting services 95,87 € per month.

30AS Elion communications services price calculator http://arikliendid.elion.ee/arikliendi-lahenduspaketid/arilahendus-2.0 (22.03.2012)

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o IT services – the maintenance and monitoring of the station’s card payment and other record-keeping systems as well as that of remote sensing systems. An estimated 127,82 €/per month. Since monitoring and sensing are designated to both filling sta-tions, the prices are equal.

o Security services. The profitability calculations are based on the assumption that the stations are equipped with security cameras. The minimum price for AS G4S video security according to the price list of the enterprise is 193 €/per month31.

o Renting office space. The calculations are made on the assumption that the enterprise owning and managing the filling station shall rent an office space. Determining the price of renting an office space was based on the offers of office spaces in the Ropka and Räni city districts among the offers of www.kv.ee as of 15 August 2010. The aforementioned city districts were chosen, since the preferred locations noted in the “Report on the choices for CNG filling station locations” are situated within the limits of these districts. As there were no special requirements to the office space of the enterprise, no restrictions were made to the size or cost of the spaces on offer. The average rental price of the offers presented on the real estate web site www.kv.ee was 90,24 €/per month.

o The maintenance of roads and lots – service costs on snow removal during winters and street cleaning during summers. In the case of a public filling station, the estimated contractual sum is 3 195,58 €/per year and in the case of a depot filling station, 2 556,47 €/per year.

• Other costs

o Insurance 1 917,35 €/per year. As this is a high-risk facility and the initial investments are costly, then the insurance premiums are quite high. The assessment of the insur -ance premium is made on the basis of an offer by AS IF P&C Insurance, which was prepared in the light of the estimated basic data.

o Marketing costs. In order to get the business running, the planned marketing costs of the first three years are 639,12 €/per year in current prices. The costs of the follow-ing years are predicted to be 319,56 €/per year in current prices. Marketing costs are only added to fast-fill stations, since slow-fill stations are only meant to meet the de-mands of a depot. Marketing costs include advertisements in print and electronic media.

o Calculating the advertisement tax of 949 €/per year is based on the regulation No. 48 of 7 December 2006 by Tartu City Council on “Advertising tax”32, which sets the price of advertising tax at 0,26 €/per ad for one square metre a day. The planned size for

31 AS G4S video security price info as of 18.08.2010: http://www.g4s.ee/arikliendile/videovalve/videovalve 32 Regulation No. 48 by Tartu City Council on advertisement tax on the Tartu City homepage: http://info.raad.tartu.ee/webaktid.nsf/web/viited/VOLM2006120700048

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the advertisement of the station is 10m2 (10 x 0,26 x 365=949 €/per year) in the form of an outside advertising stand next to the filling station.

o Land tax. Determining the land tax is based on the results of the land assessment, ac-cording to which, the registered immovables of the preliminary study on locations in the Ropka city district are situated within the value zone H079502333, in which the taxable value of land for commercial purposes is 6,39 €/m2. By regulation No. 3 of 3 December 2009 by Tartu City Council34, the general land tax rate in Tartu City is 1% of the taxable value per year. The size of land needed to build filling stations in taken into account in making the calculations: a fast-fill station needs 1,000m2; a slow-fill station needs 365m2.

Investment Costs

Filling Station Equipment and Installation

Public Filling Station with a Fast-fill System

Building a compressed natural gas filling station means high pressure work. As the availability of specialists in the field is limited in Estonia, then the delivery and installation of filling station equipment is done by the manufacturers. Hence, the price of filling station equipment and the cost of their installation is not noted separately. Due to their specificity, CNG filling station equipment can be designed and manufactured in a way that meets the client’s needs precisely. Because of the specificity and high cost of explicit equipment, the manufacturers find it complicated to give an adequate price estimate. During the profitability study, a price request was sent by e-mail to 7 enterprises active in the field:Processkontroll AB (Sweden), Bauer Kompressoren GmbH (Germany), WÄGA Wärme-Gastechnik GmbH (Germany), EPM Gas Technology (USA, Spain), Safe CNG Technology (Singapore), the Estonian representative Kristen Grupp OÜ (Estonia) of Dresser Wayne (USA), Eesti Gaas AS (Estonia). By phone, a request was made to the representative of AS AGA Eesti. AS of 1 September 2010, there were no written replies to the price request, which was first sent by e-mail and then reminded to the addressees on 19 August 2010. By phone, the representative of AS Eesti Gaas gave information about the cost of a CNG filling station built by a Swedish parent company – 300 000EUR. Based on Mõnus Minek OÜ company experiences fast filling station could cost about 400 000 EUR (CNG filling station equipment Gilbarco SK700-II)35.

Depot Filling Station with a Slow-fill System The price of equipment for a slow-fill station is estimated to be 2/3 of the price of equipment for a fast-fill station. Although a slow-fill station can be built with relatively low costs by installing nothing more than a compressor and fuelling equipment, the price of the depot filling station is increased due to the measurement systems. Fuel metres are necessary to keep count of the fuel costs of bus

33 The results of land assessment, provided by regulation No. 50 of 30 November 2001 by the Ministry of the Environment. Available as of 18.08.2010 on the Land Board homepage: http://www.maaamet.ee/hv/795.pdf 34 Regulation by Tartu City Council on the taxable value of land in 2010, available on the Tartu City homepage: http://info.raad.tartu.ee/webaktid.nsf/web/viited/VOLM2009120300003 (as of 18.08.2010) 35 OÜ Mõnus Minek (www.monusminek.ee) – interview with head of Tartu department (28.03.2012)

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companies.

Costs of Building Compressed Natural Gas Filling Station

Roads and LotsConsidering regulation No. 212 of 2 July 2002 by the Government of the Republic on “The extent of a gas installation protection zone and the maintenance zone of a category D gas installation”, a protection zone of 10 m has to be left around the gas filling station. In addition, regulation No. 50 of 18 May 2001 by the Ministry of Transport and Communications on “The requirements made to the equipment and technical condition of a motor vehicle and its trailer”, which states that the outer radius of the turning circle of any vehicle has to remain under 12.5 m, has to be taken into account. On the basis of the facts mentioned, the lot of the filling station has been calculated to be 25 x 25 m, constructed as an asphalt cover over a gravel base. Along with access ways, the calculations state that the territory of the filling station shall be 1,000m2.A slow-fill station is meant to service 5 vehicles. Estimations on the size of the station's territory are based on the assumption that all vehicles served are 18m long and 2.5m wide, which is why the area of the station should be an estimated of 360m2 (a parking lot 4m wide for each bus). The calculations of a depot filling station have not taken the cost of access ways into account on the assumption that the station will be located on the territory of a depot, which already complies with the requirements for a protection zone, access ways and manoeuvring areas. The costs of building the solutions that result from possible changes in traffic management also have to be considered in constructing a public filling station. Additional costs like these could include, depending on the location, acceleration or deceleration lanes, auxiliary lanes to the street, traffic lights systems and so on. The locations noted in the locations study are largely situated by the existing Turu St and by a section of Ringtee St (the so-called Eastern Roundabout) to be reconstructed as a main street. Turu St is a street of heavy traffic with a 2+2 scheme, which means that making left turns into and out of the station from unregulated intersections and during rush hour is dangerous and time-consuming. Therefore, from the point of view of ensuring the station's safety and ease of use, it could be required to construct an intersection regulated by traffic lights. These additional costs have not been considered in the profitability calculations.

Constructing Gas Piping SystemsA price request about the amount of connection charges was made to AS Eesti Gaas. The estimates given on the amount of connection charges in the “Report on the choices for CNG filling station locations” on five different locations have been presented in Table 7. As the exact location of the filling station is not known, the calculations make use of the arithmetic mean of the connection charges of the five locations: 6480 €.

Table 8 The charges of connecting to gas piping systems in the preliminary choices for locations according to the data by AS Eesti Gaas Address Distance of existing category B

piping system on registered im-movable

Connection charge (EUR) without VAT

Sepa 26 114m ~10 864

Turu 47 250m ~13 741

Ringtee 8 8m ~2 939

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Address Distance of existing category B piping system on registered im-movable

Connection charge (EUR) without VAT

Ringtee 25 40m ~2 876

Ringtee 77 2…8m ~1 981

Connection to Power Lines The assessment on the charges of connecting to power lines is based on the assumption that the suitable substation is located up to 400m away. According to that, the connection charges in the price list of AS Eesti Energia presented on their home page36 are 111,85 €/A. It is calculated that the electric power of the filling station is 96A (3x32A), and hence, the estimated connection charges are 32 x 111,85=3580 €.If there is no substation within 400m of the location where the station is going to be built, the costs of establishing a network shall be added to the connection charges.

Detailed Plans On most of the preliminary location choices, a detailed plan has been adopted or initiated, mainly to obtain building rights to construct business and/or production buildings. When the station is to be built, it will be required to draw up a new detailed plan. The comprehensive plan of Tartu City does not prohibit establishing a filling station in the Ropka industrial area. The price of preparing a detailed plan is largely dependant on the location, which is why it is complicated to give a general assessment to the cost of the plan. According to the expert opinion of OÜ ERKAS Pärnu Instituut, the cost of the detailed plan could reach up to 6 391,16 €. This is also the price that has been taken into account in the profitability calculations. Depending on the actual situation of the area covered by the detailed plan and the market situation in the field of preparing detailed plans, the actual price may differ from the estimated price quite greatly. The cost of a detailed plan in the calculations made for a slow-fill station is an estimated 3 195,58 €.. It is assumed that the detailed plan does not have to include access ways and the possibility of establishing a filling station has also been considered in preparing the detailed plan for a depot.

Purchasing a Registered ImmovableThe calculations are based on the estimated territory of a filling station (a fast-fill station 1,000m 2, a slow-fill station 365m2). The price of one square metre is based on the average price of business and production land in the Räni and Teguri city districts within Tartu City as presented in the database of the real estate web site www.kv.ee. Ten of the 14 registered immovables designated for the purpose of commercial and production land were presented with a viewable selling price. The arithmetic mean price per m2 of these immovables was 64,90 €. Therefore, the price of a registered immovable is 64 900 € for a fast-fill station and 23 688 € for a slow-fill station.

Costs of Financing InvestmentsThe financial analysis is based on the assumption that 30% of the investment is covered by cost-sharing and 70% by a loan. The calculations made on the costs of servicing a loan are based on the following:

• Loan period 5 years = 60 months

• Loan interest 4,586%/per year

36 https://www.energia.ee/et/business/network/connecting#

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• Equal repayments

Profitability of Filling Stations with a Fast-fill SystemThe financial calculations of a fast-fill station are presented in Annex 1.In the case of the income and costs presented, the construction of a public filling station with a fast-fill system is a profitable investment during the 15-year-long accounting period. The net current asset value NPV at a discount rate of 9,06% is 653 362 €. The internal rate of return IRR on the project is 24,5%. Both indicators of the project meet the profitability criteria set forth (NPV>0; IRR>discount rate 9,06%). The payback period calculated on the basis of the project’s discounted cumulative cash-flows is 5 years. Therefore, the cash-flows will be positive as soon as by the 6th operating year.

Figure 3 The incomes and costs of a fast-fill filling station investment project (“Sissetulekud” – Income; “Väljaminekud” – Expenditures)An additional analysis has been performed together with the profitability calculations. The aim of the analysis is to determine the optimum consumption volume, which would:a) Balance operating incomes and operating costs,b) Balance operating incomes and operating costs with investment costs. According to calculations, sale of gas prices will cover operating expenses in the first year of operation. The project revenues is going to exceed expenditures until the sixth year. In the first six years of operation sale volumes are smaller than the minimum required for an average of ~61 000 kg.

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Figure 4 Comparison of the predicted consumption and the average consumption required (“Müügiprognoos” – Sales estimate; “Min müük tegevuskulude katteks” – Minimum sales to cover operating expenses; “Min müük kogukulude katteks” – Min sales to cover total expenses)Additional calculations show that the investment project becomes negative in the first year in case of sales forecast decreases 16% or if operating costs rise by 10%. Changes in selling price, changes in investment costs and purchase price of fuel could also change the profitability of the project.

Profitability of Filling Stations with a Slow-fill System aka Depot Filling Stations

The financial calculations of a slow-fill filling station are presented in Annex 1.On the conditions set, constructing a deport filling station is a profitable investment project, whose net current asset value NPV of the cash-flows of the 15-year-long accounting period is 502 603 €, internal rate of return IRR=24,41%. Both indicators meet the requirements set: NPV>0 and IRR>discount rate 9,06%. The cash-flows of the project will turn to positive on the 5th operating year. The payback period calculated on the basis of the cumulative discounted cash-flows is 8 years.

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Figure 5 The incomes and costs of a slow-fill station investment project (“sissetulekud” – income; “väljaminekud” – Expenditures)

Additional calculations show that the investment project becomes negative in the first year in case of sales forecast decreases 25% or if operating costs rise by 15%. Changes in selling price, changes in investment costs and purchase price of fuel could also change the profitability of the project.

Comparison of the Two Types of Filling Stations In addition to calculating profitability, the two types of filling stations were compared against each other. The goal of the calculations was to determine, which type of station is more profitable. Calculations were performed as an incremental analysis of incomes and costs. The slow-fill station was chosen as the basic scenario and the fast-fill station was chosen as the comparative scenario. The incomes and costs of the two scenarios were then compared to each other. The resulting incremental cash-flows are the basis of assessing the profitability of the project of building a fast-fill public filling station instead of a slow-fill depot filling station.Decreases in incomes were considered to be costs and decreased in costs were considered to be incomes. The profitability calculations are presented in Annex 1. The profitability calculations demonstrate that both operating incomes and operating costs and well as investment costs increase due to preferring a fast-fill station. However, the increase in incomes is so much bigger that the project is in fact profitable:

NPV = 150 758 €IRR = 25,1%Payback period 10 years

The incremental cash-flows of the first five years in total are negative, i.e. not in favour of the fast-fi ll station. As of the 6th operating year, the incomes of preferring a fast-fill station exceed its costs.

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7. Risk Assessment(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)Business risk

• Demand risk. As using compressed natural gas is not very widespread in Estonia, and at the moment, there is only two CNG filling stations active, the consumption of gas may be a lot less than predicted, and this even despite the current low price of gas compared to the prices of petrol and diesel.

• Finance risks. Building a compressed natural gas filling station is a relatively large investment, and financing it probably requires raising foreign capital (loans). However, increases in the price of loan capital do not change the profitability conditions of the project in any significant way.

Mostly, the banks require a minimum of 30% cost-sharing in financing a project. As this means that the amount needed for a fast-fill station will be around 126 000 € and the amount needed for a slow-fill station around 75 000 €, an adequate sum of equity capital is required.

• An incorrect evaluation of the investment volume. As the investment volumes used in the profitability calculations are partly estimated, then the actual volumes, formed in the course of price offers and sales negotiations, could differ considerably from the volumes predicted. However, the calculations show that there is approximately a 50% investment costs increase space for both types of stations.

• An incorrect evaluation of operating costs. Since there is only two CNG filling stations in Esto -nia and it has been active for a relatively short amount of time, there are no comparative data to adequately evaluate operating costs because both of these filling stations are built by the same company AS Eesti Gaas.

• Supply risks. The only supplier of natural gas in Estonia is AS Eesti Gaas, who is practically in a monopoly position. Should the supply break off through the Eesti Gaas network, the opera-tion of the station would be hindered. Using biogas can be a solution to the problem. Several projects are being carried out in the Tartu area with the aim of producing biogas from differ -ent basic products: as landfill gas at the covered Aardlapalu Landfill, as biogas at AS Tartu Veevärk by treating waste water sediments. If the biogas thus produced was purified enough to be suitable as engine fuel, it could be marketed at a gas filling station. In that case, addi -tional investments in station equipment would be required, allowing the station to be used as a so-called daughter station, or, alternatively, a special lorry equipped with a gas pump has to be purchased. These investments are not taken into account in the profitability calcu-lations.

Construction risks• The operating reliability and guarantee risks of equipment. There are many producers of

compressed natural gas equipment. As the supplier of a filling station, a market research of

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the possible producers and suppliers has to be carried out to prevent possible future prob-lems with the construction and maintenance of equipment. An important factor in choosing a successful price offer is the ability to perform maintenance and guarantee services. Since high pressure piping system works are specific and finding the specialists required in Estonia is problematic at best, then one of the significant risks is the lack of a quick reaction in the case of malfunctions in the filling station. In order to reduce that risk, it is possible to estab -lish two filling stations, enabling to direct the clients into another filling station, should there be a malfunction.

• Delivery risks. As there are specific requirements to the location and consumption of a CNG filling station, and as it is usually constructed on the basis of a special order, there may be trouble in both meeting the delivery terms and the suitability of the object delivered. The risks may be reduced by presenting the producer with an initial task as meticulous as pos -sible, and choosing the producer very carefully.

• Construction risks. Due to the specificity of high pressure pipelines and gas installations, there may be risks resulting from the incompetence of construction workers. While imple-menting the investment, one has to consider the possibility that certain works have to be performed abroad. However, there is adequate competence of low pressure piping systems works, the construction of roads and lots and performing electrical works in Estonia.

Usage risks• As the substance handled in a filling station is highly flammable and the equipment under

high pressure, the risks of using a filling station are also very high. To reduce the risks, CNG can only be purchased with a special card (public filling station), which is issued only after de-tailed instructions. In addition, clear usage and safety requirements will be displayed in the filling station. A specialist, who has had special training, will fuel the vehicles in a depot filling station.

Legal risks • Risks resulting from plans. As no detailed plans have been prepared for the construction of a

compressed natural gas filling station, unexpected oppositions or problems may arise in the planning process, postponing the implementation of the investment or resulting in the need to find a new location for the filling station. In order to reduce the risk, it is necessary to de-scribe the advantages and disadvantages connected to the station via the local media before establishing it.

• The construction and usage of a CNG filling station is not regulated by a specific law. At the same time, installing and using gas equipment as well as pressure equipment is prescribed comparatively strictly. It is of utmost importance to follow compliance with all regulations while establishing and running a filling station.

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8. Analysis of Environmental Impacts(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)

Environmental Impacts of a Filling Station

Environmental Impacts of Building a Filling StationThe negative environmental effects of building a filling station are mainly to do with the impacts of the machines and equipment used in construction work and the impacts accompanying construction processes:Pollution of soil and water bodies – in the course of construction works, fuel, oil and other liquids may leak from the construction machines and equipment. The amounts and extents of the leaks are predictably small and easily eliminated. Pollution of air – air pollution caused by construction machines with an internal combustion engine is relatively low-level, local and short-term, and does not contribute significantly to the usual concentration of pollutants in the area. The gas accidentally spilled during gas piping systems works is lighter than air, so if there were small amounts of gas, they would diffuse in the air and would not have a negative impact.Damage to flora and fauna – most of the locations found in the preliminary location choices study are situated on industrial areas that are in use and where the landscape has mainly been created by humans. Excavation works may cause a short-term, local and low-impact disturbance of flora (destroying grass where the ground is dug up) and fauna (possible habitats in the ground destroyed by digging).Impact to cultural environment – there are no cultural monuments in the areas of initial choices, therefore, there is no impact on cultural goods. Construction works may temporarily pose a significant threat to the aesthetic appearance of the city (open pits etc).Impact on the life and health of citizens – construction impact is connected to the safety of construction workers. If occupational safety requirements are followed, there is no threat to the life and health or people. Working with gas and pressure equipment is strictly regulated by legislation; the workers must have activity licenses, reducing the risks on their life and health resulting from handling gas and pressure equipment.

Environmental Impacts of Using a Filling Station

While using the station, the negative environmental impacts are mainly to do with accidents. If the station is used per instructions and the safety requirements are followed, the environmental impacts of a filling station are brought to a minimum.There is no impact on soil or water. There is a possibility of the vehicles using the station leaking oil or other liquids (windshield washer fluid, cooling liquid etc). The leaks are temporary and predictably of small amounts. As the territory of the filling station will be covered in asphalt, no leaks will reach the soil.Impact on air – a filling station will be equipped with special appliances to avoid gas leaks, so that when the station is working normally, the gas will not leak into the outdoor environment. In the case of a small leak, the gas will diffuse into the air. As the gas is something that can be found in nature, it is of no negative effect to the environment. An accidental spillage of gas is possible during more extensive disturbances in the work of the station – it is supposed that the gas will not pollute the air, but since it is highly flammable, it does nevertheless pose a threat to life and property.

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Flora and fauna is in no way harmed by the filling station.The station has no negative effect on cultural environment.Impact on life and health – the negative impact is related to such accidents, when a large amount of gas is released into the environment. As natural gas is lighter than air and the station is an open construction, there should be no more than 20…30% of gas in the air, which could lead to oxygen deprivation and asphyxia. Since gas is highly flammable, then in the case of an extensive gas leak (the concentration of gas in the air more than 5%), the gas could explode. The compressed natural gas filling station and compressed natural gas vehicles are connected to containers and equipment under high pressure, which may pose a threat to life and health in the case of breaking under pressure due to damage or malfunction.

Indirect Environmental Impacts of Building a Filling Station

Reducing Pollution

In connection to ratifying climate protocols, Estonia has taken responsibilities to fulfil the interna-tional agreements on reducing the amount of pollutants emitting from means of transport. Regula-tion No. 122 of 22 September 2004 by the Ministry of the Environment provides the limit values for the emission, smokiness and noise level of the pollutants found in the exhaust gases of motor vehicles.

Table 9 The limit values of exhaust emissions (engines for the vehicles M2, M3; N2, N3)

Pollutants: Units ECE R 49 R 49 -20% EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO III EURO IV EURO V EURO VIChemical compound

before 1990 * 1.10.1990 * 1.7.1992 *

1.10.1995 *

1.10.2000 *

1.10.2005 *

1.10.2008 *

31.12.2012 *

1.10.1991 **

1.10.1993 **

1.10.1996 **

1.10.2001 **

1.10.2006 **

1.10.2009 **

31.12.2013 **

CO g/kWh 14.00 11.20 4.50 4.00 2.10 1.5 1.5 1.5HC g/kWh 3.50 2.4? 1.10 1.10 0.66 0.46 0.46 0.25NOx g/kWh 18.00 14.40 8.00 7.00 5.00 3.50 2.00 2.00PM g/kWh - - 0.36 0.15 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.02Smoke M*-1 0.86 0.86/0.78 0.80 0.5 0.5 0.15

Sulphur ppm B150/D350 B50/D50 10?

CEMT name "EURO 0" GREEN

LORRY

GREENER AND SAFE LORRY

EURO III EURO IV

CEMT marking L U S 3 4 5

Noise level dB(A) 84 80 80 80 80 80 80

* On the type-approval of new types of vehicles ** On the first-time registration of a vehicle (first-time commissioning)

According to the aforementioned legislation, as of 1 October 2009, it is prohibited to register a vehicle with lower pollutant indicators than the EURO V norm. The requirement is only valid for the first-time registration of a vehicle, which is why the general legislation has not restricted the traffic of existing vehicles with lower indicators. However, it is allowed to restrict the usage of certain vehicles

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with lower norm emissions in public transport – by procurements or local legislation.The new gas vehicles sold in Europe, too, have to comply at least with the Euro V norm emissions. At the same time, the levels of pollution of gas vehicles are significantly lower than the Euro V limits. For example, the gas bus MAN LionCity CNG (type of engine marking E2876LUH03; 310hp) complies with the norm EEV (Enhanced environmentally friendly vehicle, a term used in the European emission standards for the definition of a “clean vehicle” over 3.5 tonnes in the category M2 and M3. The EEV standard lies between the levels of Euro V and Euro VI) and its pollutant indicators (g/kWh) are: PM 0.0025; CO 0.7191; NOx 0.1481; CH4 0.0264; NMHC 0.0002. Comparing, for example, a diesel bus (the closest engine capacity is mostly 320hp) and a gas bus (310hp) of the same capacity on the assumption that both travel for 10 hours a day, the reduction of different pollutants in using gas buses is remarkable (see Table ). Replacing five diesel buses the age of 10 years with gas buses reduces the amounts of CO for over 6 tonnes, the amounts of HC almost 3 tonnes, the amounts of NOx even over 20 tonnes and the amounts of particle matter for over 400 kilos.

Table 10 The comparison of emissions of a diesel bus (10 years) and a gas bus (new) Amounts of exhaust gases g/per dayCO HC NO x PM

Diesel bus Euro III 4941.18 1552.94 11764.71 235.29Gas bus 1639.13 0.46 337.58 5.70Reduction of exhaust gases 3302.05 1552.49 11427.13 229.60Reduction of exhaust gases per 5 gas buses 16510.26 7762.426 57135.63 1147.978Reduction of exhaust gases per 5 gas buses (a year**) 6,026,244 2,833,286 20,854,503 419,011.9

*The Euro III standard limit is considered as the pollution volume of the diesel bus. For the gas bus, pollution volume is the one noted by the manufacturer used. Pollution volumes g/kWh have been multiplied by the capacity and working hours of a bus engine. ** On the assumption that buses will be driven 365 days per year.

If the buses to be replaced are newer, the reduction in pollution will also be lower. Replacing new diesel buses with new gas buses has a minimum effect on reducing pollution, since although new buses have to comply with the Euro V norm, many European bus manufacturers offer buses that are compliant with the EEV norm.

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9. Conclusions and summary(Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study)

The aim of preparing the current study was to assess the profitability of building a compressed natural gas filling station in Tartu City. Two different types of filling stations were analysed:a) A filling station with a fast-fill system, where gas is loaded in a vehicle’s gas container under pressure during a short period of time (2 to 5 minutes). The filling station is planned to be a public filling station, but would also meet the needs of the gas buses that are to serve Tartu City urban lines.b) A filling station with a slow-fill system, where gas is loaded between the times that a vehicle is in use for longer periods of time, for example at night. The station will only meet the demands of gas buses serving Tartu City urban lines.

According to the study, there is practically no competition in the field of gas filling stations. However, limited experiences of using CNG in Estonia also result in a limited client base. As the price of gas has remained at a low level for a long time, and is predicted to continue to stay at a low level, it has a promising future as an engine fuel. In addition to smaller fuel costs, using gas will result in the sustainability of the environment, since fewer pollutants are emitted into the air during gas burning. The investment volume of a fast-fill CNG filling station is ~420 000 € and the investment volume of a slow-fill CNG filling station is ~250 000 €. A larger part of the investment goes to purchasing and installing the filling station equipment.

The profitability calculations of the filling stations demonstrate that the operating costs of a filling station during the 15-year-long accounting period will remain between 0,49…0,64 € per 1 kg of fuel sold. The corresponding indicators of a slow-fill station are somewhat smaller (0,51…0,6 €).

The investment projects for both types of filling station are positive: the NVA value of either project is greater than 0 and the internal rate of return on the projects exceeds the discount rate used in the calculations. The payback period is 5 years for a fast-fill station and 8 years for a slow-fill station.When the two filling stations are compared, then investing in a fast-fill station is more profitable, since its sales predictions are higher. Higher sales revenue will cover higher investments and slightly higher operating costs.

Using gas does not result only in saving on fuel costs, it also reduces air pollution. According to the estimates and assuming that the new gas buses that comply with the EEV norm will replace five diesel buses complying with the Euro III norm, the annual amount of exhaust gases in Tartu City will be reduced thusly: by 6 tonnes of CO, by 3 tonnes of HC, by 21 tonnes of NOx and by 0.4 tonnes of particle matter.

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Biogas depot feasibility and profitability study

Introduction (biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)

This biogas bus depot feasibility and profitability study has been carried out within the framework of the Baltic Biogas Bus project. The strategic aim of the project is to achieve a more extensive use of biogas as a renewable energy source in the Baltic Sea region public transport. It is funded within the Baltic Sea Region Programme.

Public transport can be considered to be one of the greatest pollutants of city air. In Europe, for example, an estimated 70% of carbon dioxide, one of the causes of global warming, originates from the transportation sector37. In addition to carbon monoxide (CO), the exhaust gases of internal combustion engines contain nitric oxide (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and very fine particular matter (PM) or simply soot, which all pose a health hazard. Besides global problems – climate changes brought about by the so-called greenhouse effect and the destruction of the ozone layer –, the pollutants catapulted into the air in the exhaust gases of means of transport are also the source of local problems for the life and health of living organisms, not to mention materials. Various studies have proven that air pollution has a direct impact on our health. Based on the air pollution monitoring data of Tartu City, the air pollution of Tartu shortens the life span of a human being by approximately 8 months38. The deaths and illnesses in Europe caused by air pollution are estimated to be equal to 1.3% of GDP39. Apart from having a negative effect on the life and wellbeing of humans, air pollution in cities is one of the main reasons for the damages suffered by building structures: the so-called acid rains rooted in acidic nitrogen and sulphur compounds corrode metal and degrade mineral construction materials40. The soot emitted in exhaust gases stains the façades of buildings. For the purpose of reducing different global effects, several international agreements have been entered into, for example the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Copenhagen Protocol in 2009. Many areas have made cooperative efforts to diminish local impacts. The Baltic Biogas Bus, too, is a joint project between several states located in the Baltic Sea region, striving to decrease the level of air pollution in cities. Tartu City sees the commissioning of biogas buses in the Tartu public transport system as one of the direct aims of the project. In order to achieve this end, it is planned to carry out diverse studies and analyses to help clarify the possibility and feasibility of using biogas buses.

37 http://www.balticbiogasbus.eu/web/about-the-project.aspx 38 Hans Orru, Eda Merisalu; Eesti Arst 2007; 86 (6): 401-405 http://www.eestiarst.ee/static/files/001/ohusaaste_linnades_ja_selle_moju_inimeste_tervisele.pdf 39 Hans Orru, Eda Merisalu; Eesti Arst 2007; 86 (6): 401-405, in which WHO. The World Health Report 2002: Reducing risks, promoting healthy life. Geneva, Switzerland:WHO; 2002.40 Antonina Zguro; https://www.vk.edu.ee/uliopilastele/Materials/RDIR/Keskkonnakaitse/ATM_Eesti.ppt

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One of the more important preliminary studies is the current biogas bus depot feasibility and profitability study, the goals of which are:• To collect information on the requirements of building a biogas bus depot;• To determine the costs of establishing a biogas bus depot;• To determine the alternative technological solutions for building a biogas bus depot, as well as their costs;• To give an evaluation to the economic profitability of the project.

1. Current Situation(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)

There are no precise data about the existence of vehicles running on compressed natural gas in Estonia. According to the Vehicle Registration Department of the Estonian Road Administration, there are 23 vehicles in Estonia that have entered gas as their fuel source in the registry (see Table 1). No differentiations have been made as to what kind of gas (liquid or compressed) the vehicles use. It is known that there are total of 153 (143 cars, 7 buses, 3 trucks) NGVs in Estonia (01.01.2012) based on AS Eesti Gaas database. Tartu City Government has completed a procurement for urban lines regular services, as a result of which, 5 CNG buses started to carry passengers on Tartu City urban lines in the beginning of year 2011.

Table 11 The number of vehicles according to fuel sources in Estonia as of 01.01.2010 (source: Vehicle Registration Department of the Estonian Road Administration)

Type of fuel In total Passenger cars Goods vehicles Buses MotorcyclesPETROL 457,245 417,287 21,009 325 18,624DIESEL 192,272 128,385 60,094 3,792 1GAS 23 17 6 0 0ELECTRICITY 6 3 2 0 1In total 649,546 545,692 81,111 4,117 18,626

Gas vehicles are quite common around the world. Most private cars in developing countries in Asia (Pakistan, Iran, India) and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil) are equipped with gas-fuelled engines due to the lower price of natural gas compared to petrol. The main selling point for gas vehicles is precisely the lower cost of fuel. On 16 April 2012, the price of compressed natural gas in an Estonian filling station was 0,779 €/kg (AS Eesti Gaas Suur-Sõjamäe filling station, Tallinn), and the price of liquid gas as engine fuel 0,79 €/l (AS Alexela Oil), whereas diesel fuel cost is 1,4 €/l and 95 petrol cost 1,44 €/l (AS Olerex). Although CNG is sold in kilograms and other fuels are sold in litres, the fuel consumptions are still comparable (units/100 km)41. In order to achieve the comparability of prices, we can view the unit prices of fuels, calculated on the basis of calorific value (see Table ), according to which, the price of compressed natural gas MJ is the lowest.

Table 12 Calorific values and unit prices of fuels

CNG Diesel fuel PetrolEnergy content* MJ/kg (CNG);MJ/l (others) 46…49 38.3 34.5Energy price €/MJ 0,0164 0,0365 0,0417Energy price €/kg (CNG);€/l (others) 0,779 1,4 1,44

41 According to the gas bus study conducted by Tallinn, the average gas consumption is 37.23kg/100km, the av-erage diesel fuel consumption is 37.35l/100km.

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CNG Diesel fuel PetrolSeller EG Olerex Olerex* http://www.iangv.org/natural-gas-vehicles/natural-gas.html

In addition to the direct monetary savings of using gas, it is also environmentally friendly – considerably fewer pollutants are emitted into the air during gas burning. In Pakistan there are the most eager users of natural gas vehicles – they own 3,5 million gas-fuelled cars or other means of transport and there are over 3,300 suitable filling stations. In Europe, Italy takes the lead in using CNG cars, with over 779,090 vehicles, and is followed by Ukraine with 200,000 vehicles42. Based on Natural & bio Gas Vehicle Association 2009 year statistics43 our northern neighbours in Finland had 985 gas-fuelled vehicles and 18 gas filling stations; our southern neighbours in Latvia had 18 vehicles and 0 filling stations (all CNG stations are closed); Lithuania had 190 vehicles and 3 filling stations and our eastern neighbours in Russia had 86,000 vehicles and 245 filling stations (see Table 3).

Table 13 The number of natural gas vehicles in the world. Source: The GVR magazine http://www.ngvjournal.com/en/magazines/the-gvr

Position CountryNatural gas vehicles

Filling stations

1 Pakistan 3 500 000 3 3002 Iran 2 800 000 1 8003 Argentina 2 044 000 1 9024 Brazil 1 702 790 1 7925 India 1 100 100 7246 Italy 779 090 858

14 Ukraine 200 000 294TOTAL

(worldwide) 14 573 419 20 741

The trend of using gas vehicles is on the rise across the whole world (see Figure 6). During the last decade, gas vehicle use increased by about 50% in the Asia-Pacific region, 25% in Latin America and 20% in Africa. In Europe, the increase was around 17%.

42 The GVR home page: http://www.ngvjournal.com/en/magazines/the-gvr (16.04.2012)43 NGVA Europe database: http://www.ngvaeurope.eu/european-ngv-statistics (16.04.2012)

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Figure 6 Natural gas vehicle growth between 1991...2009 by numberTartu City is one of the participants in the project Baltic Biogas Bus, one of the main goals of which is to commission biogas buses to serve Tartu urban lines. In addition to using CNG buses, the options of fuelling buses by biogas produced from landfill gases released in the closed Aardlapalu Landfill and from the biogas produced from the fermenting of the residual mud of wastewater treatment by Tartu Veevärk AS have been researched. Hence, the project plays an important role in sustaining the environment by replacing old diesel buses that emit large amounts of pollutants into city air with new gas buses, and by producing a portion of the required fuel from renewable resources.

2. Constructional, Environmental and Safety Requirements of a Biogas Bus Depot

The constructional and environmental requirements have to comply with the safety requirements provided by legislation and by the standards set. The depot and the equipment, as well as the constructions related to them, have to be built in such a location and in such a way that would ensure the preservation of people, property and environment. There are no significant differences between a regular diesel bus depot and a gas bus depot. However, when gas buses are used, the safety requirements of gaseous fuels and pressure equipment have to be complied with. In addition, the specific nature of gas (lighter than air) means that there are certain constructional requirements to the ventilation of buildings.

Constructional RequirementsA customary bus depot should at bare minimum include the following technical units:

• Parking. The guarding and safekeeping of buses at the times when they are not serving urban lines. Due to the snowy winters, characteristic of Estonian climate, a sheltered parking lot would be best. This, however, could be hindered by the high cost of a large roofed parking lot, considering that all vehicles have to be able to exit the parking lot freely. Given the parameters of the most sizeable buses (ca 18,5x 2,5m) and the maximum number of buses (50), the smallest possible parking lot should be (18.5+1) x (2.5+1) x 50 = 3,413m2.

• Fuelling. A fuelling station for buses should be located inside the depot or in the near vicinity to it, so as to avoid spending fuel on driving back and forth. As there are limited numbers of vehicles running on compressed natural gas in Tartu as well as the whole of Estonia, it would make sense to combine a depot filling station with a public filling station by situating the gas

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filling station at the “gate” of the depot or as near to the depot as possible. A diesel fuel filling station should be situated on the territory of the depot or together with the gas filling station, since diesel is the main fuel for most buses in a bus company’s vehicle fleet.

• Cleaning. The bus depot should be able to offer cleaning services for both the interior and the exterior of buses. The interior of a bus needs to be cleaned every day, and the exterior needs to be cleaned depending on the weather conditions. As it is virtually impossible to predict weather conditions, it is difficult to plan purchasing cleaning services from outside the company. In addition, purchasing cleaning services from outside would mean spending fuel on so-called unladen journeys. The washing equipment offered on the market is manifold, from a mobile diesel-fuelled washer bus with a driver to a fully automated bus wash.

• Everyday maintenance and smaller repairs. A bus depot should be able to perform everyday maintenance (inspection of equipment, assemblies, engine fluid etc) and smaller repairs. As most bus manufacturers perform warranty services and later repairs in special workshops, it could be profitable to let bigger repairs be performed in these, as the tools and equipment used in repairs are specific and expensive.

• Maintenance and replacement of tyres. As the maintenance and repair of tyres does not depend on the brand name and performing these works is essential, the depot should be equipped with a tyre workshop.

• Warehouse space for storing spare parts and accessories.• Office space for managing the bus depot. If the depot is also connected to a bus service

provider, the office block should contain a dispatch point. • Non-work rooms. The bus depot should also contain rest rooms and/or accommodation

areas for bus drivers and depot workers, including changing rooms, washing facilities and a leisure area.

There are no separate or special requirements for a bus depot that depend on the fuel used. The main differences from customary bus depots (for buses with diesel and petrol engines) worth mentioning are the requirements for the ventilation in a building due to the physical features of gas. As natural gas is lighter than air (see Table ), then the gas released in the repair workshop will rise up under the ceiling, where it will need to find a way out. Therefore, the ventilation ports in a gas bus depot have to be located just under the ceiling.

Table 14 The indicators of landfill gas and natural gas

Indicator Landfill gas Natural gasPCS kWh/m3 6.6 11.3PCI kWh/m3 6 10.3Density 0.93 0.57Mass kg/m3 1.21 0.73The Wobbe Index 6.9 14.9

Construction of a depot building has to comply with the usual requirements provided by the Planning and Building Act, by meeting the norms of design work and building.

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Environmental Requirements

Fuelling Systems Typically, a bus depot is equipped with a filling station. As both diesel and gas fuelled buses are to serve Tartu urban lines, it could make sense to establish two filling stations: one for gas and one for liquid fuels.Several laws regulate the usage and construction of a filling station and related equipment. Their aim is to reduce the negative impact filling stations have on the environment:

• Ambient Air Protection Act and the resulting legislation –Regulation No. 4 of 31 January 2005 by the Ministry of Environment on “The requirements for transport of petrol and storage thereof in terminals and service stations for the purposes of limiting the emission levels of volatile organic compounds1”;Regulation No. 38 of 19 May 2005 by the Ministry of Environment on “The environmental requirements for liquid fuel1”.The pumps in a filling station have to be equipped with appliances to stop fuel from overflowing. The fuel containers have to be equipped with systems to stop fumes from being released into the environment.

• Water Act and the resulting legislation –Regulation No. 172 of 16 May 2001 by the Government of the Republic on “Water protection requirements of storage facilities for oil products”. Since the capacity of a depot filling station is more than 10m3 (10m3 is approximately 3 days’ stock to meet the demand of 45 diesel buses), the requirements for middle-sized storage facilities have to be complied with. The requirements state that the area of fuel containers has to be covered with an inert material that the fuel would be unable to permeate. The area of the containers has to be surrounded by a bund wall and the area thus created has to be able to contain all the fuel in the fuel containers. The loading and fuelling areas of the filling station have to be covered with an inert material as well.

• From the point of view of a gas filling station, the Gaseous Fuel Safety Act and the resulting legislation are important –Regulation No. 99 of 5 October 2009 by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications on “Requirements on gas installations, installation of gas appliances and construction of gas installations”;Regulation No. 25 of 28 June 2002 by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications on “The requirements for gas appliances and fittings and for the provision of information and attachment of conformity marks thereto”. High-pressure (working pressure over 16 bars) gas appliances belong to category D, which means that their protection zone has to be 10 m wide. Strict fire safety requirements have to be complied with within the zone; no trees are allowed to grow and no constructions other than those related to gas appliances are allowed to remain within the zone.

• Pressure Equipment Safety Act in connection to using high pressure equipment in gas filling station and gas buses.

Storm WaterAccording to section 15 of the procedure on using Tartu City public water supply and sewerage (regulation No. 37 of 14 September 2006 by Tartu City Council), the amount of water draining from the roofs of the buildings and paved areas located on the plot of land owned by the client is taken to

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be the mean drainage of Tartu City, i.e. 160 l/m2 annually. Based on the data collected by the Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (EMHI), the average annual rainfall between 1961…1990 in Tartu was 585 mm44. Therefore, a lot with a size of over 1000m2 collects more than half a tonne (585m3) of storm water. The sewage system of Tartu is in the most part combined, but separate systems are being developed more and more. Due to that, storm water runoff is either directed into a storm drain or discharged into soil on the lot. As the territory of the depot is coated in hard materials or otherwise separated from surface and groundwater, another solution has to be found for storm water drainage. At the same time, the content of oil products in storm water must not exceed 5mg/l. Water intake bore wells of Tartu City are located east from Turu St in a section between Ropka Road and Ringtee St. According to subsection 2 (1) 2) of regulation No. 61 of 16 December 1996 by the Ministry of the Environment on “Establishing the procedure for the formation and design of sanitary protection zones of water intakes”, the sanitary protection zone of a bore well is generally formed on a 50m radius from the bore well or 50m on both sides from a straight line connecting the wells 45. According to subsection 10 (5) of regulation No. 269 of 31 July 2001 by the Government of the Republic on “Procedures for discharging effluent into water body or soil”, even effluent that complies with the requirements cannot be discharged into soil on sanitary protection zones of water intakes or any closer than 50m from their outer border46. Hence, the total width of the zone in which discharge of effluent into soil is prohibited, is 100m. Therefore, discharge of effluent into soil is mostly prohibited on the lots by Turu St and in the area of the section between Ropka Road and Ringtee St. In addition, a requirement for cleaning the parking lots, established in the “Procedure for discharging effluent into water body or soil”, is connected to storm water. According to subsection 7 (2) of the procedure, the passageways and squares of wastewater collection areas as well as other areas, from which storm water is discharged, have to be dry cleaned regularly in order to avoid the contamination of storm water or to reduce the pollutant content in it.

Vehicle WashThe requirements for a vehicle wash are mainly related to the requirements for wastewater established in the Water Act. If the wastewater exceeds the pollution indicators noted of regulation No. 269 of 31 July 2001 by the Government of the Republic on “Procedure for discharging effluent into water body or soil”, a pollution charge has to be paid. So as to comply with the environmental requirements, modern washing appliances are equipped with wastewater reuse systems, which on the one hand reduce the amount of water consumed, but on the other hand increase the pollutant content of the water discharged. Calculations indicate that approximately 1.2m 3 of water is needed to wash one bus. Assuming that a bus is washed twice a week, then washing the exterior of one bus produces 125m3 of wastewater. Water reuse systems, however, reduce that amount by half.

Repair WorkshopThe environmental requirements for a repair workshop are related to the handling requirements for fuels and other liquid and gaseous substances needed to fuel a bus. Much of the residue of oils and other liquids, as well as their containers, are considered to be hazardous waste, and handling them is regulated by the Waste Act. In addition, there are requirements arising from the Occupational Health and Safety Act for the noise levels, lighting and temperature of a working environment and other indicators of a building’s internal climate.

44 EMHI homepage: http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=6,299,303 (as of 01.09.2010)45 http://www.riigiteataja.ee/ert/act.jsp?id=783345 46 https://www.riigiteataja.ee/ert/act.jsp?id=13290813

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3. Analysis of Target Groups and Competition(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)

The main target group of a bus depot is bus companies. It would be possible to establish a depot for one company only, concentrated on meeting the needs of and servicing just one specific bus company. In that case, choosing the location, size and equipment would depend on the needs of the bus company. Another solution would be a universal bus depot, the size and equipment of which would be arranged on the basis of a business plan, depending on the needs of the area. The depot would be able to offer services to all (bus) companies. As a result of a public procurement on the regular carriage of passengers by bus organised by Tartu City, AS SEBE will be serving Tartu urban lines for the next four years. Tartu county lines will be served by OÜ Tarbus., who have their own depot at Ringtee 25. Bus washes are generally also suitable for washing lorries and vans, which means that the services of the vehicle wash of the depot can be offered to both transportation companies as well as private car owners. The garages of big logistics companies are equipped with washing appliances, which can also be found in lorry sales and maintenance companies. At Ringtee 25, Tartu, a public service for washing lorries and buses is offered by OÜ CarWash Group. According to the price list the interior cleaning of a bus costs 20 € (25 for an articulated bus) and the exterior cleaning costs 30 € (35 for an articulated bus)47.The depot’s tyre workshop allows for the assembly of lorry wheels, which means the service can be sold to transportation companies. Since larger transportation companies have their own tyre workshops and there are many companies focussed on tyre works on the market already (AS Vianor, AS Hinkus etc), then the volume of selling tyre services will be predictably small. If the price of services is competitive, the growth of the service’s selling volume is feasible. According to the price list of AS Hinkus, a full assembly of a lorry wheel along with balancing costs 16,5 €, while repairing a tyre by hot air vulcanisation, without the cost of patches, costs 26 €48 Most bus importers offer bus repair and maintenance services. The employees of such shops are specially trained, so that their repair services are theoretically of high quality. Therefore, the depot could find an advantage in a lower price for services.

4. Preliminary Analysis of a Bus Depot Location The following criteria are important from the point of view of the bus depot location:

• Distance from the points of departure and destination of the urban lines;• Distance from essential services not provided in the depot;• Distance from communications. Distance from a power network, and in the case of a gas bus

depot, from a gas network; • Price of property.

Distance from Points of Departure and Destination Considering the fuel consumption of buses, driving from the depot to the point of departure of the urban line in the morning and to the depot from the point of destination in the evening costs about 0,64 €/per kilometre for diesel buses and 0,38 €/per kilometre for gas buses (without VAT). Assuming that a bus is in use for 365 days a year, the cost of the one kilometre that a bus drives each day to get

47 OÜ Car Wash Group price request (as of 16.04.2012)48 AS Hinkus home page price list: http://www.hinkus.ee/?p=10 (as of 16.04.2012)

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to the line and come back from it, will be 277 €…467 €. Tartu urban lines have 12 points of departure and destination locations (see Figure 7), which are situated relatively far from each other. A greater density of the points of departure and destination can be found in the Fi-Lõunakeskus area (6 points of departure and destination), in the Tarbus-Sepa Turg area (7) and in the Nõlvaku bus stop area (7).

Figure 7 The locations of points of destination and the numbers of the points of departure and destination of Tartu urban lines (Source: http://tartu.peatus.ee)As travelling from the Annelinn city district to other areas means driving through downtown, then the area of Nõlvaku bus stop is not the best location for a depot: for example, a traffic jam on Võidu Bridge could seriously hinder traffic on the way from Annelinn to downtown. The problem could be solved by further developing the eastern-side roundabout of Tartu City, but the other points of departure and destination would nevertheless remain far from Nõlvaku bus stop. The area of the intersection of Riia St and Ringtee St, where there are a total of six points of departure and destination, is more suitable. The Riia-Ringtee and Aardla-Ringtee intersections close by have great traffic capacity and enable travelling to various other city districts. A problem could arise from the Tallinn-Tartu-Luhamaa highway due to its heavy traffic and the level crossing of Petseri railway, compulsory for reaching the Ropka city district. It is likely that many of the current points of departure and destination of the urban lines are such as a result of the location of the AS GoBus depot in the Ropka city district. However, taking into account that there are plenty of registered immovables designated to be used as production lands with a size suitable for establishing a depot on them, then the Ropka city district is a good choice for a depot location.

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Distance from Essential Services Not Provided in the Depot The report on the choices for a CNG filling station locations compiled by Nordic Energy Group OÜ49

presents the analysis of the possible locations suitable for a biogas filling station. By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of different locations, the following were noted as the primary choices:

- Sepa St 26

- Turu St 47

- Ringtee St 8

- Ringtee St 25

- Ringtee St 77

As the figure demonstrates (Error: Reference source not found), the locations with the most advantage points are the ones by Turu and Ringtee streets in the Ropka city district. In a situation that would warrant the establishment of such a biogas filling station in Tartu that would serve not only buses, but other consumers as well, the Ropka city district would be the most suitable location for a depot. The Ropka industrial area houses many logistics companies with large garages (e.g. OÜ Astar Transport), auto repair workshops (Karla Auto O.K. Sepa St 17), tyre workshops (AS Hinkus Sepa 22) and car washes (e.g. OÜ Car Wash Group at Ringtee St 25).

Distance from Communications The Tartu industrial areas are equipped with an excellent street network. The existing built-up registered immovables have an adequate electrical connection. A category B gas pipeline runs along Tähe St and on Ringtee St from Tähe St up to the Ringtee 2 registered immovable. According to the Tartu City comprehensive plan, it is intended to establish gas pipelines on Turu St and Ringtee St. In addition, the Fi city district is equipped with gas pipelines.

49 Nordic Energy Group; “Report on the choices on CNG filling station locations”; Tallinn 2010.

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Figure 8 The preliminary choices for a biogas filling station locations

Price of Property As a general trend, the price of property increases in proportion to its vicinity from Tartu downtown. A suitable registered immovable with a size of over 10000m2 can chiefly be found uptown. As of 16 April 2012, there were 12 immovable properties over the size of 1 ha on sale in Tartu City, as presented on the real estate web site www.kv.ee50. Six of them were situated in the Veeriku city district, with a mean price of 23,2 €/m2, three in the Räni city district with the price of 10,1 €/m2, two in the Raadi-Kruusamäe city district with the price of 14 €/m2 and one in the Ropka city district, with the price of 17,2 €/m2. The number of the offers on the web site is too low to draw conclusions on the general prices of real estate. However, it can be noted that the prices are higher in the Veeriku city district. Based on the price of property, the most suitable locations would be in the Räni industrial area.

5. Financial Analysis(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)

MethodologyThe aim of preparing a financial analysis for a biogas bus depot was to determine the payback period of a biogas bus depot and give an evaluation to the economic profitability of the project. The financial analysis of a bus depot has been prepared as a typical investment project analysis, where the projects deemed successful are the ones where the net current asset value NVA has to be bigger than 0, and the internal rate of return IRR on the project has to be equal to or bigger than the discount rate used in the calculations.The financial calculations were made in the table calculation programme Microsoft Excel 2007, where the cash-flows (cost/income ratio) have been calculated by simple mathematical operations; the financial indicators are calculated by using the following functions:

• The discounted net current asset value has been calculated by using the function NVA (dis -count rate; period cash-flows).

• The internal rate of return on the project has been calculated by using the function IRR (peri -od cash-flows).

The incremental cumulative cash-flows method was used to calculate the payback period. On the basis of the discount rate, it is checked, on which year after the project has ended does the net current asset value of the incremental cumulative cash-flows become positive and stay positive during the period of assessment. The payback period is a specific period in years, beginning with making the investment and ending with the year that profitability is achieved.In the calculations made about the cash-flows of the project, incomes are considered to be the sales of services provided in the depot for the bus company serving the Tartu city urban lines. The costs of the depot are considered to be the costs accompanying the providing of services. Investment costs are considered to be the direct costs of building the depot as well as purchasing equipment and tools.

Basic DataThe profitability calculations of the bus depot are based on the assumption that the depot is a separate organisation from the bus company. In addition, the depot will not be providing filling station services. The profitability calculations of a gas filling station are presented in the “Biogas

50 Only the sales offers entered in 2012. www.kv.ee

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filling station feasibility and profitability study”51.The primary data for the calculations on the biogas depot are made on the basis of the information obtained from the Tartu City Government about the predicted existence of biogas buses during the accounting period: in 2012, the bus company will consist of 51 buses, 5 of which will be biogas buses. In the long run, the number of biogas buses is estimated to rise up to 25.

InvestmentThe total costs of establishing a depot in a hypothetical location in Tartu City have been assessed in preparing the biogas depot profitability study. This means that the differences in executing the investment resulting from a specific location have not been taken into account. For example, the investment costs do not include connecting to networks (power and gas), the costs of establishing access ways or the costs of purchasing a registered immovable. Investment costs include the costs of constructing the bus depot parking lot and repair workshop and the cost of equipment needed for the depot, vehicle wash and tyre workshop.The investment costs assessment is based on the following data:

• Cost of building a depot building – the unit cost is calculated on the basis of analogous projects. On the basis of the calculations of a heavy equipment workshop, the cost of 1m2 of the workshop was found to be 652 €.

• Depot equipment and tools – the price of lifting equipment (3093 € per piece) was calculated on the basis of a price offer (by Balti Rehviseadmete AS). The total cost of tools ( 70 309 €) is estimated.

• Vehicle wash – the investments made in a vehicle wash are considered to be the purchasing of washing equipment along with their installation. The washing equipment consists of a fully automated lorry washing equipment, also suitable for cleaning private cars and vans. The system is equipped with a roof brush, pressure washers, a duplicate water system, safety installations and controls as well as a self-serve card payment system. There were two price offers for washing equipment; on the basis of the cheaper offer (Balti Rehviseadmete AS), the price of the vehicle wash equipment is 93 011 €.

• Tyre workshop equipment – a tyre assembly bench, a wheel balance bench, nut driver, tyre inflation safety cage and a pneumohydraulic jack. The total cost of the tyre workshop equipment is, on the basis of a price offer (Balti Rehviseadmete AS), 27 045 €..

• Asphalt lots for the depot parking area. The cost of an asphalt lot is taken to be 32 €/m2. The estimated size of the parking area (for buses and employee parking lots, as well as other asphalt lots) is considered to be 1.5ha. The total cost of an asphalt-covered parking area is 481 440 €, to which the cost of boundary fences with gates (12 838 €) and of lighting (21 153 €) is added.

The total cost of the investment is 1 359 752 €. Notice: Previous study prices are multiplied in this study by the consumer price index (abbreviated CPI) factor 0,3 % due to no new price offers for investment costs assessment by suitable companies.

Accounting Period and Residual ValueThe accounting period of the project is 30 years. The equipment and civil engineering works of the depot shall be amortised in the accounts during 10 years, which is why a replacement investment has to be made on the 11th and 21st years of the accounting period. The depot building and lots shall be

51 ERKAS Valduse OÜ, 2010 “Biogas filling station feasibility and profitability study”

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amortised in the accounts during 30 years, which is why at the end of the accounting period, their residual value shall be 0.

Discount Rate The discounted values of cash-flows have been used to assess the profitability of the project. The nominal discount rate k1=9.06 has been used as the discount rate. The nominal discount rate has been calculated on the basis of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and inflation (f) (see Table 5).

• The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been calculated on the basis of the formula WACC= kd x Wd + ke x We, where

- kd is the price of borrowed capital, which is dependent on the base rate – EURIBOR and the bank’s risk premium. EURIBOR values in the calculations are the 6-month EURIBOR rates as of 21.03.2012 – 1.586%. The bank's risk premium is an estimated 3%. Kd=1.586+3=4.586%.

- Ke is the price of equity capital, calculated on the basis of the formula ke=kd+RP=4.586%+5%=9.586%. RP is the risk premium of equity capital, the value of which has found to be an estimated 5% in the calculations.

- Wd is the percentage of borrowed capital. In calculations, it is an estimated 70%, as banks generally require a minimum of 30% cost-sharing;

- We is the percentage of equity capital in the investment. An estimated 30% in the calcu-lations.

• Inflation f=2.8%. Inflation is based on the arithmetic mean of the period 2011…2013 of the harmonised index of consumer prices presented in the economic prognosis of the Bank of Es-tonia52.

Table 15 Prices and discount rates of capitals

1 Accounting period Year 152 EURIOBOR Euribor 6-month Euribor rate as of 21.03.2012 1,586%

3 Risk premium of bank RPd

Estimated risk premium of bank at issuing loan 3%

2 Price of borrowed capital Kd Euribor+ROd 4,586%3 Risk premium of equity capital RPe Estimated 5.0%4 Price of equity capital Ke kd+RP 9,586%5 Percentage of borrowed capital Wd 70.0%6 Percentage of equity capital We 30.0%7 Weighted average cost of capital WACC kd*Wd+ke*We 6,085%8 Inflation rate F 2,8%9 Nominal discount rate k1 (1+WACC)*(1+f)-1 9,06%

52 Homepage of the Bank of Estonia: http://www.eestipank.info/pub/et/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/ylevaade/_2011_02/_3_211.pdf?ok=

www.balticbiogasbus.eu51

Macroeconomic Input Data In making predictions about the income and costs of the current analysis, the changes in consumer prices according to the spring prognosis 2010 by the Ministry of Finance53 were generally used. The prognosis of the Ministry of Finance was drawn up for the period of 2010…2014, where it is foreseen that the harmonised index of consumer prices shall change from 0.8% in 2010 to 2.7% in 2014. The changes in the consumer price index occurring later than 2014 are taken to be equal to the indicators of the year 2014.The labour costs predictions use the data presented in the spring prognosis 2010 by the Ministry of Finance on the changes in labour costs (nominal increase in average wages). The prognosis of the Ministry of Finance was drawn up for the period of 2010…2014, where it is foreseen that the average wages shall increase from -2.8% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2014. The changes in the consumer price index of the accounting period of the analysis occurring later than 2014 are taken to be equal to the indicators of the year 2014.

Taxes • Cost without VAT is used in the calculations of the current analysis.

• In calculating labour costs, the national taxes on labour costs paid by the employer have been noted separately, including social tax 33% and unemployment insurance tax 1.4%.

6. Operating Income and Costs(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)

Operating IncomeThe operating income of a biogas depot is considered to be the selling of washing services, repair services, tyre workshop services, guarding services and other services (such as the use of leisure rooms and washing facilities) to a bus company. If the owner of the bus company also owns and manages the depot, then the aforementioned direct costs will not be produced and the costs will be covered by selling transport tickets and/or subsidies.

• Vehicle washing services. The sales of washing services are based on the assumption that the bus company

o Price of vehicle washing services. The washing services are based on the price list of the OÜ Car Wash Group car wash located at Ringtee 25 – exterior cleaning 18,64 € and interior cleaning 13,31 €.. The prices have been modified to be 10% lower so as to achieve a competitive edge.

o Volume of vehicle washing services. The volume of exterior cleaning is estimated on the basis of the assumption that the exterior of buses is cleaned after every 3 days of being on duty, which means 5,200 times a year. The days on duty are taken to be 312 days a year per bus. Interior cleaning is performed every day, which means the annu-al volume of the service is 15,600.

53 Ministry of Finance 2010 spring prognosis. http://www.fin.ee/doc.php?105048 )

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• Repair services. The calculations of repair services are based on the assumption that the em -ployees of the depot will perform the maintenance and repairs of buses in the depot. As the maintenance and repair buses are roughly the same for new diesel buses and new gas buses, the prices of repairs are not noted separately on the basis of the fuel used.

o Price of repair services. The hourly fee for repair services is an estimated 32 €.

o The estimated annual maintenance and repair requirement is 45 hours.

o Maintenance and repair materials. The cost of materials is added to the cost of main-tenance and repair works. The cost of materials is an estimated 16 000 €/per year for one bus. The estimates are based on the information about the mean annual cost of maintenance and repair during a 10-year-long contract period, obtained from the representative of MAN buses. Since repair costs depend on many circumstances that cannot be planned ahead (e.g. the driver’s manner of driving, weather etc), the re -pair costs can differ significantly across different years. In calculating the operating income, 5% is added to the price of materials and spare parts.

• Tyre workshop services. The calculations about the income of the tyre workshop are based on the assumption that the tyres will only be inspected, replaced and balanced in the depot.

o Price of tyre services. The price of replacing a tyre along with balancing it is based on the AS Hinkus price list (as of 17 April 2012): 20 € per tyre. The prices have been modified to be 10% lower so as to achieve a competitive edge.

o Volume of tyre replacement service. It is estimated that a half of all the tyres on all the buses will be replaced annually – 150 tyres each year.

o Expendable costs of tyre replacement – the cost of new tyres (90% of the retail price of Tyreman OÜ price list (as of 17 April 2012), 395 € per tyre Nokian 275/70 R22.5). In addition, other expendable materials such as balancing counterweights, valves, greases etc have been taken into account: an average of 10 € per tyre.

• Other services. Other services include guarding services (the bus parking lot on the depot ter -ritory is under constant manned surveillance) and fees for using the depot facilities (leisure areas, washing facilities). The cost of the service is an estimated 20 000 €/per year.

Operating CostsThe operating costs of a depot are considered to be the following:

• Basic products and materials

o Maintenance and repair materials. An estimated 8 000 € per bus, i.e. a total of 408 000 € per year, assuming that all the buses in the fleet were purchased in a new condi-tion at the beginning of the accounting period.

o Materials related to cleaning the depot. An estimated 0,5 € per one cleaning time, in total 5000 €/per year.

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o Vehicle wash materials. According to the price offer made by Balti Rehviseadmete AS, the cost of expendable materials is 1,66€/per washing time, in total 8632 €/per year.

o Tyre workshop materials. According to the price list of Tyreman OÜ (as of 17 April 2012), the price of a sample tyre – Nokian 275/70 R22.5 – is 395 €. The price of valves, weights, etc is added. In total, 54 750 €/per year.

o Maintenance of equipment and tools. According to the price offer made by Balti Re-hviseadmete AS, the price of vehicle wash equipment maintenance is 385 €/per year. The annual maintenance price of other equipment is an estimated 1% of purchase price. In total, ~1345 €/per year.

o Repairs of equipment and tools. Annually, an estimated 2% of the purchase price of equipment and tools – 3850 €/per year.

• Personnel costs. The staff of the depot is made up of 10 people. The calculations of the per -sonnel costs are based on the statistical average wages in the field. The amount of average wages is based on the data obtained from Statistics Estonia. The workload of all employees is 1.0 positions in the calculations. The amount of personnel costs is presented in Table . The cost of taxes paid on wages is added to the personnel costs in calculations: 33% social tax and 1.4% unemployment insurance premium.

Table 16 Operating Costs – Wage Fund

Personnel Costs – Wage Fund Manager € per month 2001 Net wages 1 150Electrician-mechanic € per month 1661 Net wages 960Diagnostician-mechanic € per month 1661 Net wages 960Tyre specialist-mechanic € per month 1661 Net wages 960Mechanic € per month 1661 Net wages 960Personnel Costs – Wage Fund Bus inspectors-cleaning staff-vehicle wash operators (2)

€ per month

517Net wages 320 (estimated, work at night after buses finish serving the lines)

Assistant € per month 973 Net wages 575,20Guard (2) € per month 744 Net wages 447

• Administration costs

o Costs on communication – costs on the office's Internet connection and fixed tele -phone service. The price is based on the price calculator on the home page of AS Eli-on Business Solution package54, according to which, the monthly cost of the commu-nications services (includes: Internet 3Mbit, Wi-Fi, 5–10 phone numbers, homepage domain, digital television) is 69.35 € or approximately 1800 € per year.

54 AS Elion home page: http://arikliendid.elion.ee/arikliendi-lahenduspaketid/arilahendus-2.0 (22.03.2012)

www.balticbiogasbus.eu54

o Mobile telephony costs of 53.63 € are based on the AS EMT service, the price of which (including VAT) is 64,36 €.

o Transportation costs are considered to be the compensation for one car, 0,4 € per km, limited distance travelled 650km per month.

o Office supplies. The purchase of office supplies such as paper, printer ink, pens and so on is estimated to cost 76,69 € per year.

o Accounting services cost an estimated 95,87 € per month.

• Management costs

o Electricity costs. Estimated energy requirement 100kWh/m2 for buildings and 5kWh/m2 for outdoors territories. Price of electricity 0.09 €/KWh (statistical average for consumers of 20…500MWh, according to Statistics Estonia).

o Heating costs. Heating requirements an estimated 0.2MWh/m2, heating costs 61.94 €/MWh on the basis of AS Tallinna Küte price list for April 2012.

o Waste management.

Municipal waste on the basis of Veolia price list (valid as of 01 February 2012), rent of container (2.5m3) 10.72€ per month, unloading 41.81 €/per time, once a month.

Used tyres. According to AS Epler & Lorenz price list as of 18 April 2012, 0.10 €/kg. Considering that one tyre weighs 50kg, the predicted amount is 7.5 tonnes.

Waste oils and other dangerous waste an estimated 65€ per year.

o Water and sewerage. Cost of water and sewerage 8000 €/per year, of which 92% or 7360 €/per year is spent in the vehicle wash. The price of water is 0.696 €/m3 and the price of sewerage service is 1.2 €/m3 for water intended for human consumption and 1.776 €/m3 for water intended for vehicle wash, according to the price list of AS Tartu veevärk.55

o Depot cleaning services. The estimated area to be cleaned is 15,000m2 and the price of cleaning services 0.32 €/m2.

• Other costs

o Taxes. Building the depot in the Ropka city district is a prerequisite. The bases for de-termining the amount of land tax are the results of land assessment, according to

55 http://www2.tartuvesi.ee/index.php/teenuste-hinnakirjad/veevarustuse-ja-heitvee-aerajuhtimise-hinnakiri-1072006

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which, the Ropka city district is largely located in the value zone H0795023 56, where the taxable value of land intended for commercial purposes is 6.39 €/m2. Regulation No. 3 of the Tartu City Council57 of 3 December 2009 establishes the general land tax rate in Tartu City as 1% of the annual taxable value of land. The land tax calculations are based on the territory on which the depot is to be built: 2 ha.

o Estimated cost of insurance 1950 € per year.

Investment CostsThe largest part of the investment (48% of the total cost) consists of the construction costs of the repair workshop (see table 17). Constructing the outdoors areas of the depot requires quite a large-scale investment as well – together with boundary fences and lighting, it makes up 38% of the total investment. The vehicle wash of the depot will cost a total of 93 000 €, the tyre workshop 27 000 € and the furnishings of the workshop 70 300 €.

Table 17 Investments

56 The results of land assessment established by regulation No. 50 of 30 November 2001 by the Ministry of En-vironment. Available as of 18.08.2010 on the Land Board homepage: http://www.maaamet.ee/hv/795.pdf 57 Tartu City Council regulation on the taxable value of land in 2010 available at the Tartu City homepage: http://info.raad.tartu.ee/webaktid.nsf/web/viited/VOLM2009120300003 (as of 18.04.2012)

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INVESTMENTS Unit Price Amount Price in total1 Vehicle wash equipment 93 01111 Maxiwash Vario pc 73 780 1 73 78012 Water reuse system pc 19 231 1 19 2312 Tyre workshop 27 045

21Lorry tyre assembly bench Beissbarth Servomat MS70 pc 5 769 1 5 769

22 Lorry tyre balance bench Beissbarth MT787 pc 4 487 1 4 48723 Electric nut driver El-Max pc 1 474 1 1 47424 Cartridges 32 and 33 pc 138 1 13825 Tyre inflation safety cage pc 1 208 1 1 20826 Pneumohydraulic lorry jack P152 Paquin pc 1 147 1 1 14727 Tools, equipment, instruments set 12 821 1 12 8213 Workshop furnishings 70 30931 Ramp hoist Bliz GHSP10 pc 3 103 2 6 20532 Tools, equipment, workbenches set 64 103 1 64 103

INVESTMENTS Unit Price Amount Price in total4 Buildings, constructions 1 169 38841 Costs of building a workshop m2 654 1000 653 95642 Costs of depot outdoors territories (asphalt lots) m2 32 15000 481 44043 Boundary fences, gates Per metre 32 400 12 83844 Street lights Per metre 71 300 21 153

Investment in total 1 359 752

Costs of Financing Investments The financial analysis is based on the assumption that 30% of the investment is covered by cost-sharing and 70% by a loan. The calculations made on the costs of servicing a loan are based on the following:

• Loan period 5 years = 60 months• Loan interest 4,586%/per year• Equal repayments

Assessing the Investment in the Depot The financial calculations of the depot are presented in Annex 2.

Operating IncomeThe biggest part of operating income is obtained from repair services (see Table 18). However, it has to be taken into account that the majority of the income from repair services is made up of selling spare parts. The same ratio is valid in providing tyre replacement services. The incomes from selling spare parts cover the costs of purchasing them. Operating incomes in total are in the first year over 665 000 €. Income per one bus is ~13 500 €.

Table 18 Operating income of the project during the first five years

Operating income1 2 3 4 5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

11 Vehicle washing services 279 589,75 286 299,91 294 030,00 301 968,81 310 121,97 111 Exterior washing 88 979,90 91 115,42 93 575,54 96 102,08 98 696,83 112 Interior washing 190 609,85 195 184,48 200 454,47 205 866,74 211 425,14 12 Repair services 501 840,00 513 884,16 527 759,03 542 008,53 556 642,76 121 - Hours 32,00 32,77 33,65 34,56 35,49 122 - Demand 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 123 - Materials 428 400,00 438 681,60 450 526,00 462 690,21 475 182,84

13Tyre replacement services 61 471,58 62 946,89 64 646,46 66 391,91 68 184,49

131 - Hours 18,00 18,43 18,93 19,44 19,97 132 - Demand 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 133 - Materials 58 717,58 60 126,80 61 750,22 63 417,48 65 129,75 14 Other services 19 200,00 19 660,80 20 191,64 20 736,82 21 296,71

2Operating income in total 665 348,78 694 967,08 715 990,69 737 676,83 760 047,39

2Operating income per 1 bus 13 046,05 13 626,81 14 039,03 14 464,25 14 902,89

Operating CostsThe costs on basic products and materials make up the biggest part of operating costs (see Table ). Of that, spare parts for maintenance and repairs take the lion’s share. The next item of expenditure by

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size is personnel costs, which is in total approximately 128 000 € during the first year. The operating costs of the bus depot on the first year are around 700 000 € and operating costs per one bus are ~ 14 000 €.

Table 19 Operating costs of the project during the first five years

2 Operating costs €/a 665 348,78 694 967,08 715 990,69 737 676,83 760 047,39 21 Basic product and materials €/a 485 847,96 497 558,59 510 992,67 524 789,47 538 958,79

211Materials for maintenance and repairs €/a 408 000,00 417 792,00 429 072,38 440 657,34 452 555,09

212 Materials for cleaning €/a 7 956,00 8 170,81 8 391,42 8 617,99 8 850,68 213 Materials for vehicle wash €/a 8 804,64 9 042,37 9 286,51 9 537,24 9 794,75 214 Materials for tyre workshop €/a 55 921,50 57 263,62 58 809,73 60 397,60 62 028,33 2141 Tyres €/a 54 391,50 55 696,90 57 200,71 58 745,13 60 331,25

2142Other materials (valves, weights, greases, gaskets) €/a 1 530,00 1 566,72 1 609,02 1 652,47 1 697,08

215Maintenance of equipment and tools €/a 1 358,53 1 391,14 1 428,70 1 467,27 1 506,89

216Repairs of equipment and tools €/a 3 807,29 3 898,66 4 003,92 4 112,03 4 223,06

22 Personnel costs €/a 127 824,00 150 633,12 156 959,71 163 552,02 170 421,20 221 Manager €/a 24 012,00 24 828,41 25 871,20 26 957,79 28 090,02 222 Electrician-mechanic €/a 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10 223 Diagnostician-mechanic €/a 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10 224 Tyre specialist-mechanic €/a 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10 225 Mechanic €/a 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10

226

Bus inspectors-cleaning staff-vehicle wash operators (2) €/a 12 408,00 12 829,87 13 368,73 13 930,21 14 515,28

227 Assistant €/a 11 676,00 12 072,98 12 580,05 13 108,41 13 658,96 228 Guard (2) €/a 17 856,00 18 463,10 19 238,55 20 046,57 20 888,53 23 Administration costs €/a 5 823,12 5 976,66 6 138,03 6 303,76 6 473,96 231 Communications €/a 1 475,76 1 515,61 1 556,53 1 598,55 1 641,71 232 Transportation €/a 3 120,00 3 204,24 3 290,75 3 379,60 3 470,85 233 Office supplies €/a 76,92 78,77 80,89 83,08 85,32 234 Accounting services €/a 1 150,44 1 178,05 1 209,86 1 242,52 1 276,07 24 Management costs €/a 42 625,70 39 490,03 40 556,27 41 651,28 42 775,87 241 Electricity €/a 14 940,00 15 298,56 15 711,62 16 135,83 16 571,50 242 Heating €/a 12 388,00 12 685,31 13 027,82 13 379,57 13 740,81 243 Waste management €/a 874,49 895,61 919,79 944,63 970,13 2431 Non-hazardous waste €/a 44,49 45,69 46,92 48,19 49,49 2432 Waste oils and other €/a 65,00 66,56 68,36 70,20 72,10

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2 Operating costs €/a 665 348,78 694 967,08 715 990,69 737 676,83 760 047,39 dangerous waste

2433 Used tyres €/a 765,00 783,36 804,51 826,23 848,54 244 Water and sewerage €/a 8 663,21 8 897,12 9 137,34 9 384,05 9 637,42

2441

Water and sewerage: water intended for human consumption €/a 796,32 817,82 839,90 862,58 885,87

2442Water and sewerage: vehicle wash €/a 7 866,89 8 079,30 8 297,44 8 521,47 8 751,55

245 Cleaning of territory €/a 5 760,00 5 915,52 6 075,24 6 239,27 6 407,73 25 Other costs €/a 3 228,00 1 308,67 1 344,01 1 380,29 1 417,56 251 Insurance €/a 1 950,00 1 996,80 2 050,71 2 106,08 2 162,95 252 Land tax €/a 1 278,00 1 308,67 1 344,01 1 380,29 1 417,56

Operating costs in total €/a 698 616,22 729 715,43 751 790,22 774 560,67 798 049,76 Operating costs per one bus €/a 13 698,35 14308,13 14740,98 15187,45 15648,01

Capital Costs and Finance Costs

The financing of the project is based on the assumption that 70% of the investment is covered by a loan, which is why the costs of repayments are related to the project (121 000 € a year, see ). In order to simplify the calculations, the period used in estimating the costs of loan repayments is a year-long annuity charge (an annual payment used instead of a monthly payment, as is more common). This means the sum to be repaid is slightly smaller than in the case of a monthly payment, but the magnitude of the costs will remain the same.

Table 20 Capital and financing cash-flows

1 2 3 4 52012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Operating cash-flows 163 485,11 153 076,33 154 836,91 156 545,40 158 196,18 Capital cash-flows -1 359 751,96 0 0 0 0Depot building and constructions -1 169 388Workshop equipment - 70 309Vehicle wash - 93 011Tyre workshop - 27 045Finance cash-flows 831 026,51 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87

Loan 951 826,38 Loan repayment -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87

Cash-flows in total -365 240,35 32 276,46 34 037,04 35 745,53 37 396,31 Cash-flows per bus -7161,57 632,87 667,39 700,89 733,26discount cash-flows -365 240,35 29 596,11 28 618,67 27 559,30 26 437,72 discount cumulative cash-flows -365 240,35 -335 644,24 -307 025,57 -279 466,27 -253 028,56

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Profitability of ProjectAccording to the income and costs calculated on the basis of the presented assumptions, building the depot will be a profitable investment during the given accounting period of 30 years. The net current asset value NAV at a discount rate of 9.06 % is 411 936 €. The internal rate of return IRR on the project is 16.48%. Both indicators of the project meet the profitability criteria set forth (NPV>0; IRR>discount rate 9.06%). The payback period calculated on the basis of the project’s discounted cumulative cash-flows is 13 years. The cash-flows will be positive as soon as on the 2 nd year after exercising the investment, but due to the size of the initial investment and a relatively small operating total net gain, the cumulative cash-flows will not be positive until the 14 th year. On the 11th and 21st operating year, the costs of replacement investments are added. The project is able to cover the costs of the replacement investments made on the 21st year from its own funds.

Figure 9 Total income and costs of the project (“Projekti sissetulekud” – Income of the project; “Projekti väljaminekud” – Costs of the project)

Value of risksIn addition, there are different risks that result from changes in the basic data used in the financial calculations. For that purpose, the value of the variables that have the potential of modifying the results of the project, were changed to a limit at which the project became unprofitable during the 30-year-long accounting period (NVA dropped below zero and IRR dropped below the discount rate of 9.06%).The changes in operating income and costs are of critical importance – they affect the profitability of the project below current discount rate if the building cost of depot is increasing by 8%, borrowed capital increases 5% or operating costs in total increases 4%. If the number of buses were to decrease by 4, the project would become unprofitable.

7. Risk Assessment(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)

Business Risks• Demand risk. The current profitability calculations are based on the assumption that the de-

pot will provide services to the bus company serving Tartu urban lines. If the depot were to act in the conditions of free market, the demand risk would be of critical importance, since it is highly likely that there are many companies in Tartu who have sufficient material and im-

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material resources to meet the needs of a bus company. In the case of a competition, it is possible that sales prices have to be reduced significantly.

• Finance risks. Building a bus depot is a relatively large investment, and financing it probably requires raising foreign capital (loans). However, increases in the price of borrowed capital do not change the profitability conditions of the project in any significant way: an increase of 100% of the borrowed capital i.e. to the level of 9.2%/per year mean the profitability of the project negative.

• An incorrect evaluation of the investment volume. As the investment volumes used in the profitability calculations are partly estimated, then the actual volumes, formed in the course of price offers and sales negotiations, could differ considerably from the volumes predicted. However, the calculations show that there is approximately a 25% investment costs increase space.

• An incorrect evaluation of operating costs. As most depots have formed from the bus fleets of the Soviet period and most bus companies use old diesel buses, it is difficult to find ad-equate comparative data to assess operating costs. Operating costs are of critical importance in the profitability of the project – if operating costs increased over 5%, the project would be -come unprofitable.

Construction Risks• The operating reliability and guarantee risks of equipment. There are many producers of de -

pot equipment in the world. A market research of the possible producers and suppliers has to be carried out to prevent possible future problems with the construction and maintenance of equipment. An important factor in choosing a successful price offer is the ability to per-form maintenance and guarantee services.

• Construction risks. Depot buildings are relatively simple to construct, so finding a construc-tion company that provides quality service should not be a problem. However, a competent owner supervision authority has to be included to be able to follow the compliance of the de-pot with legislation concerning gas and pressure equipment.

Usage Risks• As compressed natural gas is a highly flammable substance and the equipment used is under

high pressure, the risks of repairing CNG buses are also very high. To reduce the risk, great attention must be paid to the sufficient competence and training of employees. The depot will be equipped with every possible safety installation so as to prevent accidents at work.

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8. Conclusions and summary(biogas depot feasibility and profitability study)

The aim of preparing the current study was to assess the profitability of building a biogas bus depot in Tartu City.

The investment volume of a bus depot is ~ 1.4 million €, 86% (1.14 million €) of which is made up of the costs of building the depot building and outdoors constructions (parking lot, boundary fences, and lighting).

The profitability calculations of the bus depot demonstrate that during the first five operating years, the operating costs of the depot will remain between 665 000 €…760 000 € and the operating income will remain between 862 000 €…956 000 €. The operating total net gain will be ca 163 500 € per year.

Considering the sales predictions, according to which, a considerable part will be made up of selling repair and maintenance services to Tartu urban line buses, the operating income will cover the operating costs as soon as on the second operating year.

The bus depot investment project is positive: the NVA value of the project is greater than 0 and the internal rate of return on the project exceeds the discount rate used in the calculations. The payback period for the depot is 13 years.

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ANNEXES (financial calculations)

Annex 1. Financial Calculations for the biogas filling station

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Incomes and costs of the project unit1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Operating IncomesFuel selling €

Selling price €/kg 0,68 0,70 0,72 0,73 0,74 0,76 0,77 0,78 0,79 0,80 0,81 0,82 0,83 0,84 0,85Selling volume kg/per year

number of gas buses tk 5 5 5 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 25 25 25 25 25demand of buses kg/per year

percentage of others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0demand of other vehicles kg/per year 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Operating Costs €Variable CostsPurchasing fuel €

Purchasing price €/kg 0,34 0,35 0,36 0,37 0,37 0,38 0,38 0,39 0,40 0,40 0,41 0,41 0,42 0,42 0,43Purchasing volume kg/per year

Fixed CostsPersonnel costs €

Wages €Taxes €

General maintenance costsElectricity €

Repairs and maintenance €Administrative costs €

Accounting €Security €

Office space renting costs €IT costs €

Maintenance of roads and lots €Insurance €

Other costs 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23Land tax € 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Marketing costs € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Advertisement tax € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Operating Cash-Flows € 11451 11387 11219 10952 41852 73746 106560 140228 174694 209906 234425 236256 237903 239372 240668Investment cash-flowsInitial investments € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Replacement investments € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Residual value € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Investment Cash-Flows in Total € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Finance cash-flowsCost-sharing €Loan €Loan refunds € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Interest € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Principal amount € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Finance Cash-Flows in Total € 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash-Flows inTotaldiscounted cash-flowcumulative cash-flowdiscounted cumulative cash-flow

Profitability Calculations indicator result criterion decision result criterion OtsusNVA NPV >0 positive >0 positiveIRR IRR 24,41% 9,06% positive 24,41% 9,06% positivePayback period a 8 <15 positive 8 <15 positive

Additional Calculations yearMinimal sales to achieve positive performancePredicted discrepancy between sales and minimal salesnumber of buses equal to discrepancy -0,12 -0,12 -0,11 -0,11 -0,25 -0,32 -0,35 -0,38 -0,39 -0,41 -0,41 -0,41 -0,41 -0,41 -0,40Minimal sales to achieve positive investmentPredicted discrepancy between sales and minimal salesnumber of buses equal to discrepancy 9,31 1,46 1,43 1,42 -0,09 -3,47 -4,94 -6,40 -7,86 -9,32 -10,27 -10,23 -10,18 -10,13 -10,77

Operating costs per unit sold 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Operating costs per 1 kg 0,60 0,62 0,64 0,65 0,56 0,52 0,50 0,49 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,49 0,49 0,50 0,51

Data on figureProject incomes 271471 98344 100464 102469 166994 233597 302136 372485 444531 518175 570507 577505 584249 590756 597043Project costs

96 095 98 344 100 464 102 469 166 994 233 597 302 136 372 485 444 531 518 175 570 507 577 505 584 249 590 756 597 04396 095 98 344 100 464 102 469 166 994 233 597 302 136 372 485 444 531 518 175 570 507 577 505 584 249 590 756 597 043

140 400,00 140 400,00 140 400,00 140 400,00 224 640,00 308 880,00 393 120,00 477 360,00 561 600,00 645 840,00 702 000,00 702 000,00 702 000,00 702 000,00 702 000,00

140 400,00 140 400,00 140 400,00 140 400,00 224 640,00 308 880,00 393 120,00 477 360,00 561 600,00 645 840,00 702 000,00 702 000,00 702 000,00 702 000,00 702 000,00

84 645 86 957 89 245 91 517 125 141 159 851 195 577 232 257 269 837 308 269 336 082 341 249 346 346 351 385 356 37448 122 49 248 50 309 51 313 83 626 116 979 151 301 186 530 222 609 259 487 285 694 289 198 292 575 295 834 298 98248 122 49 248 50 309 51 313 83 626 116 979 151 301 186 530 222 609 259 487 285 694 289 198 292 575 295 834 298 982

140 400 140 400 140 400 140 400 224 640 308 880 393 120 477 360 561 600 645 840 702 000 702 000 702 000 702 000 702 00036 523 37 709 38 935 40 204 41 516 42 872 44 275 45 727 47 228 48 782 50 388 52 051 53 771 55 551 57 39213 368 13 930 14 515 15 124 15 760 16 421 17 111 17 830 18 579 19 359 20 172 21 019 21 902 22 822 23 780

9 947 10 364 10 800 11 253 11 726 12 218 12 731 13 266 13 823 14 404 15 009 15 639 16 296 16 981 17 6943 422 3 565 3 715 3 871 4 034 4 203 4 380 4 564 4 755 4 955 5 163 5 380 5 606 5 841 6 087

23 131 23 756 24 397 25 056 25 733 26 427 27 141 27 874 28 626 29 399 30 193 31 008 31 846 32 705 33 5884 136 4 248 4 362 4 480 4 601 4 725 4 853 4 984 5 119 5 257 5 399 5 545 5 694 5 848 6 0064 672 4 798 4 928 5 061 5 197 5 338 5 482 5 630 5 782 5 938 6 098 6 263 6 432 6 606 6 7843 300 3 389 3 481 3 575 3 671 3 771 3 872 3 977 4 084 4 195 4 308 4 424 4 544 4 666 4 7921 202 1 234 1 267 1 302 1 337 1 373 1 410 1 448 1 487 1 527 1 568 1 611 1 654 1 699 1 7452 419 2 484 2 551 2 620 2 691 2 764 2 838 2 915 2 994 3 074 3 157 3 243 3 330 3 420 3 5131 128 1 158 1 190 1 222 1 255 1 289 1 324 1 359 1 396 1 434 1 472 1 512 1 553 1 595 1 6381 602 1 645 1 690 1 735 1 782 1 830 1 880 1 931 1 983 2 036 2 091 2 148 2 206 2 265 2 3262 670 2 742 2 816 2 892 2 970 3 050 3 132 3 217 3 304 3 393 3 485 3 579 3 675 3 775 3 8772 003 2 057 2 112 2 169 2 228 2 288 2 350 2 413 2 478 2 545 2 614 2 685 2 757 2 832 2 908

-250 537

16 582-250 537 16 582

-75 161175 376-40 038 -40 038 -40 038 -40 038 -40 038

-8 032 -6 566 -5 033 -3 430 -1 753-32 006 -33 472 -35 005 -36 608 -38 28560 176 -40 038 -40 038 -40 038 -40 038

-178 910 -28 651 -28 819 -29 087 1 814 73 746 106 560 140 228 174 694 209 906 234 425 236 256 237 903 239 372 257 250 -178 910 -26 272 -24 232 -22 425 1 283 47 806 63 341 76 432 87 311 96 198 98 513 91 037 84 059 77 555 76 426 -178 910 -207 561 -236 380 -265 467 -263 653 -189 907 -83 347 56 881 231 575 441 481 675 906 912 162 1 150 065 1 389 436 1 646 687 -178 910 -205 182 -229 413 -251 839 -250 556 -202 750 -139 409 -62 977 24 334 120 532 219 044 310 082 394 141 471 695 548 121

502 603 502 603

2 012 2 013 2 014 2 015 2 016 2 017 2 018 2 019 2 020 2 021 2 022 2 023 2 024 2 025 2 026 123 670 124 143 124 721 125 395 168 340 211 367 254 472 297 650 340 899 384 218 413 544 414 813 416 150 417 553 419 023

16 730 16 257 15 679 15 005 56 300 97 513 138 648 179 710 220 701 261 622 288 456 287 187 285 850 284 447 282 977

401 796 181 304 180 676 180 254 222 200 211 367 254 472 297 650 340 899 384 218 413 544 414 813 416 150 417 553 399 526-261 396 -40 904 -40 276 -39 854 2 440 97 513 138 648 179 710 220 701 261 622 288 456 287 187 285 850 284 447 302 474

375 219,71 kr 126 994,92 kr 129 282,94 kr 131 555,43 kr 165 179,43 kr 159 851,03 kr 195 576,73 kr 232 256,83 kr 269 837,02 kr 308 269,03 kr 336 082,09 kr 341 249,12 kr 346 346,28 kr 351 384,60 kr 339 792,35 kr

Annex 2. Financial Calculations for the Depot

www.balticbiogasbus.eu64

Incomes-Costs unit1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20251 Operating Incomes in Total

11 Vehicle wash services111 Exterior cleaning €/per year112 Interior cleaning €/per year

12 Repair services121 work €/h 32,00 32,77 33,65 34,56 35,49 36,45 37,44 38,45 39,49 40,55 41,65 42,77 43,93 45,11 46,33 122 demand h/per year123 materials €/per year

13 Tyre replacement services131 price of unit €/per wheel 18,00 18,43 18,93 19,44 19,97 20,50 21,06 21,63 22,21 22,81 23,43 24,06 24,71 25,38 26,06 132 demand pc/per year 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 133 materials €/per year

14 Other services €/per year2 Operating Costs in Total €/per year

21 Basic product and materials €/per year211 Materials for maintenance and repairs €/per year212 Materials for cleaning €/per year213 Materials for vehicle wash €/per year214 Materials for tyre workshop €/per year

2141 Tyres €/per year2142Other materials (valves, weights, greases, gaskets) €/per year

215 Maintenance of equipment and tools €/per year216 Repairs of equipment and tools €/per year

22 Personnel costs €/per year221 Manager €/per year222 Electrician-mechanic €/per year223 Diagnostician-mechanic €/per year224 Tyre specialist-mechanic €/per year225 Mechanic €/per year226Bus inspectors-cleaning staff-vehicle wash operators (2) €/per year227 Assistant €/per year228 Guard (2) €/per year

23 Administration Costs €/per year231 Communications €/per year232 Transportation costs €/per year233 Office supplies €/per year 76,92 78,77 80,89 83,08 85,32 87,62 89,99 92,42 94,91 97,48 100,11 102,81 105,59 108,44 111,37 234 Raamatupidamisteenused €/per year

24 Management Costs €/per year241 Electricity €/per year242 Heating €/per year243 Waste management €/per year 874,49 895,61 919,79 944,63 970,13 996,33

2431 Non-hazardous waste €/per year 44,49 45,69 46,92 48,19 49,49 50,83 52,20 53,61 55,06 56,55 58,07 59,64 61,25 62,90 64,60 2432 Waste oils and other dangerous waste €/per year 65,00 66,56 68,36 70,20 72,10 74,04 76,04 78,10 80,21 82,37 84,60 86,88 89,23 91,63 94,11 2433 Used tyres €/per year 765,00 783,36 804,51 826,23 848,54 871,45 894,98 919,15 943,96 969,45 995,62

244 Water and sewerage €/per year2441Water and sewerage: water intended for human consumption €/per year 796,32 817,82 839,90 862,58 885,87 909,79 934,35 959,58 985,49 2442 Water and sewerage: vehicle wash €/per year

245 Cleaning of territory €/per year25 Other Costs €/per year

251 Insurance €/per year252 Land tax €/per year

3 Operating cash-flows

4 Profit Expectations €/per year5 operating costs+profit expectations €/per year

6 Operating cash-flows in total €/per year 163485,11 153076,33 154836,91 156545,40 158196,18 159783,34 161300,62 162741,40 164098,68 165365,07 166532,74 167593,46 168538,53 169358,75 170044,44

862 101,33 882 791,76 906 627,14 931 106,07 956 245,93 982 064,57 1 008 580,32 1 035 811,99 1 063 778,91 1 092 500,94 1 121 998,46 1 152 292,42 1 183 404,32 1 215 356,24 1 248 170,85 279 589,75 286 299,91 294 030,00 301 968,81 310 121,97 318 495,26 327 094,64 335 926,19 344 996,20 354 311,10 363 877,50 373 702,19 383 792,15 394 154,54 404 796,71

88 979,90 91 115,42 93 575,54 96 102,08 98 696,83 101 361,65 104 098,41 106 909,07 109 795,61 112 760,10 115 804,62 118 931,34 122 142,49 125 440,34 128 827,23 190 609,85 195 184,48 200 454,47 205 866,74 211 425,14 217 133,62 222 996,22 229 017,12 235 200,58 241 551,00 248 072,88 254 770,85 261 649,66 268 714,20 275 969,48 501 840,00 513 884,16 527 759,03 542 008,53 556 642,76 571 672,11 587 107,26 602 959,15 619 239,05 635 958,51 653 129,38 670 763,88 688 874,50 707 474,11 726 575,92

2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 428 400,00 438 681,60 450 526,00 462 690,21 475 182,84 488 012,78 501 189,12 514 721,23 528 618,70 542 891,41 557 549,47 572 603,31 588 063,60 603 941,32 620 247,73

61 471,58 62 946,89 64 646,46 66 391,91 68 184,49 70 025,48 71 916,16 73 857,90 75 852,06 77 900,07 80 003,37 82 163,46 84 381,88 86 660,19 89 000,01

58 717,58 60 126,80 61 750,22 63 417,48 65 129,75 66 888,25 68 694,23 70 548,98 72 453,80 74 410,05 76 419,12 78 482,44 80 601,47 82 777,71 85 012,70 19 200,00 19 660,80 20 191,64 20 736,82 21 296,71 21 871,72 22 462,26 23 068,74 23 691,59 24 331,27 24 988,21 25 662,89 26 355,79 27 067,40 27 798,22

665 348,78 694 967,08 715 990,69 737 676,83 760 047,39 783 124,98 806 933,04 831 495,79 856 838,31 882 986,55 909 967,35 937 808,53 966 538,85 996 188,08 1 026 787,06 485 847,96 497 558,59 510 992,67 524 789,47 538 958,79 553 510,68 568 455,47 583 803,76 599 566,47 615 754,76 632 380,14 649 454,40 666 989,67 684 998,39 703 493,35 408 000,00 417 792,00 429 072,38 440 657,34 452 555,09 464 774,07 477 322,97 490 210,69 503 446,38 517 039,44 530 999,50 545 336,49 560 060,57 575 182,21 590 712,13

7 956,00 8 170,81 8 391,42 8 617,99 8 850,68 9 089,65 9 335,07 9 587,11 9 845,97 10 111,81 10 384,83 10 665,22 10 953,18 11 248,91 11 552,63 8 804,64 9 042,37 9 286,51 9 537,24 9 794,75 10 059,21 10 330,81 10 609,74 10 896,20 11 190,40 11 492,54 11 802,84 12 121,52 12 448,80 12 784,91

55 921,50 57 263,62 58 809,73 60 397,60 62 028,33 63 703,10 65 423,08 67 189,50 69 003,62 70 866,72 72 780,12 74 745,18 76 763,30 78 835,91 80 964,48 54 391,50 55 696,90 57 200,71 58 745,13 60 331,25 61 960,19 63 633,12 65 351,21 67 115,70 68 927,82 70 788,87 72 700,17 74 663,07 76 678,98 78 749,31

1 530,00 1 566,72 1 609,02 1 652,47 1 697,08 1 742,90 1 789,96 1 838,29 1 887,92 1 938,90 1 991,25 2 045,01 2 100,23 2 156,93 2 215,17 1 358,53 1 391,14 1 428,70 1 467,27 1 506,89 1 547,57 1 589,36 1 632,27 1 676,34 1 721,60 1 768,09 1 815,83 1 864,85 1 915,20 1 966,91 3 807,29 3 898,66 4 003,92 4 112,03 4 223,06 4 337,08 4 454,18 4 574,44 4 697,95 4 824,80 4 955,07 5 088,85 5 226,25 5 367,36 5 512,28

127 824,00 150 633,12 156 959,71 163 552,02 170 421,20 177 578,89 185 037,21 192 808,77 200 906,74 209 344,82 218 137,30 227 299,07 236 845,63 246 793,15 257 158,46 24 012,00 24 828,41 25 871,20 26 957,79 28 090,02 29 269,80 30 499,13 31 780,09 33 114,86 34 505,68 35 954,92 37 465,03 39 038,56 40 678,18 42 386,66 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10 24 296,42 25 316,87 26 380,18 27 488,15 28 642,65 29 845,64 31 099,16 32 405,32 33 766,34 35 184,53 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10 24 296,42 25 316,87 26 380,18 27 488,15 28 642,65 29 845,64 31 099,16 32 405,32 33 766,34 35 184,53 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10 24 296,42 25 316,87 26 380,18 27 488,15 28 642,65 29 845,64 31 099,16 32 405,32 33 766,34 35 184,53 19 932,00 20 609,69 21 475,29 22 377,26 23 317,10 24 296,42 25 316,87 26 380,18 27 488,15 28 642,65 29 845,64 31 099,16 32 405,32 33 766,34 35 184,53 12 408,00 12 829,87 13 368,73 13 930,21 14 515,28 15 124,92 15 760,17 16 422,10 17 111,83 17 830,52 18 579,40 19 359,74 20 172,85 21 020,11 21 902,95 11 676,00 12 072,98 12 580,05 13 108,41 13 658,96 14 232,64 14 830,41 15 453,29 16 102,33 16 778,63 17 483,33 18 217,63 18 982,77 19 780,04 20 610,81 17 856,00 18 463,10 19 238,55 20 046,57 20 888,53 21 765,85 22 680,01 23 632,57 24 625,14 25 659,40 26 737,09 27 860,05 29 030,17 30 249,44 31 519,92

5 823,12 5 976,66 6 138,03 6 303,76 6 473,96 6 648,76 6 828,27 7 012,64 7 201,98 7 396,43 7 596,14 7 801,23 8 011,86 8 228,18 8 450,35 1 475,76 1 515,61 1 556,53 1 598,55 1 641,71 1 686,04 1 731,56 1 778,32 1 826,33 1 875,64 1 926,28 1 978,29 2 031,71 2 086,56 2 142,90 3 120,00 3 204,24 3 290,75 3 379,60 3 470,85 3 564,57 3 660,81 3 759,65 3 861,16 3 965,41 4 072,48 4 182,44 4 295,36 4 411,34 4 530,44

1 150,44 1 178,05 1 209,86 1 242,52 1 276,07 1 310,53 1 345,91 1 382,25 1 419,57 1 457,90 1 497,26 1 537,69 1 579,21 1 621,84 1 665,63 42 625,70 39 490,03 40 556,27 41 651,28 42 775,87 43 930,82 45 116,95 46 335,11 47 586,16 48 870,98 50 190,50 51 545,64 52 937,37 54 366,68 55 834,58 14 940,00 15 298,56 15 711,62 16 135,83 16 571,50 17 018,93 17 478,44 17 950,36 18 435,02 18 932,77 19 443,95 19 968,94 20 508,10 21 061,82 21 630,49 12 388,00 12 685,31 13 027,82 13 379,57 13 740,81 14 111,82 14 492,84 14 884,14 15 286,01 15 698,74 16 122,60 16 557,91 17 004,98 17 464,11 17 935,64

1 023,23 1 050,85 1 079,23 1 108,37 1 138,29 1 169,03 1 200,59 1 233,01 1 266,30

1 022,51 1 050,11 1 078,47 1 107,59 8 663,21 8 897,12 9 137,34 9 384,05 9 637,42 9 897,63 10 164,87 10 439,32 10 721,18 11 010,65 11 307,94 11 613,25 11 926,81 12 248,83 12 579,55

1 012,10 1 039,42 1 067,49 1 096,31 1 125,91 1 156,31 7 866,89 8 079,30 8 297,44 8 521,47 8 751,55 8 987,84 9 230,51 9 479,74 9 735,69 9 998,55 10 268,52 10 545,77 10 830,50 11 122,92 11 423,24 5 760,00 5 915,52 6 075,24 6 239,27 6 407,73 6 580,74 6 758,42 6 940,90 7 128,30 7 320,77 7 518,43 7 721,42 7 929,90 8 144,01 8 363,90 3 228,00 1 308,67 1 344,01 1 380,29 1 417,56 1 455,84 1 495,14 1 535,51 1 576,97 1 619,55 1 663,28 1 708,19 1 754,31 1 801,67 1 850,32 1 950,00 1 996,80 2 050,71 2 106,08 2 162,95 2 221,35 2 281,32 2 342,92 2 406,18 2 471,14 2 537,87 2 606,39 2 676,76 2 749,03 2 823,26 1 278,00 1 308,67 1 344,01 1 380,29 1 417,56 1 455,84 1 495,14 1 535,51 1 576,97 1 619,55 1 663,28 1 708,19 1 754,31 1 801,67 1 850,32 196 752,55 187 824,68 190 636,45 193 429,24 196 198,55 198 939,59 201 647,27 204 316,19 206 940,60 209 514,39 212 031,11 214 483,89 216 865,47 219 168,15 221 383,80

33 267,44 34 748,35 35 799,53 36 883,84 38 002,37 39 156,25 40 346,65 41 574,79 42 841,92 44 149,33 45 498,37 46 890,43 48 326,94 49 809,40 51 339,35 698 616,22 729 715,43 751 790,22 774 560,67 798 049,76 822 281,23 847 279,69 873 070,58 899 680,23 927 135,87 955 465,72 984 698,96 1 014 865,79 1 045 997,49 1 078 126,41

Incomes-Costs unit16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 20401 Operating Incomes in Total

11 Vehicle wash services111 Exterior cleaning €/per year112 Interior cleaning €/per year

12 Repair services121 work €/h 47,58 48,87 50,19 51,54 52,93 54,36 55,83 57,34 58,88 60,47 62,11 63,78 65,51 67,27 69,09 122 demand h/per year123 materials €/per year

13 Tyre replacement services131 price of unit €/per wheel 26,76 27,49 28,23 28,99 29,77 30,58 31,40 32,25 33,12 34,02 34,94 35,88 36,85 37,84 38,86 132 demand pc/per year 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 153,00 133 materials €/per year

14 Other services €/per year2 Operating Costs in Total €/per year

21 Basic product and materials €/per year211 Materials for maintenance and repairs €/per year212 Materials for cleaning €/per year213 Materials for vehicle wash €/per year214 Materials for tyre workshop €/per year

2141 Tyres €/per year2142Other materials (valves, weights, greases, gaskets) €/per year

215 Maintenance of equipment and tools €/per year216 Repairs of equipment and tools €/per year

22 Personnel costs €/per year221 Manager €/per year222 Electrician-mechanic €/per year223 Diagnostician-mechanic €/per year224 Tyre specialist-mechanic €/per year225 Mechanic €/per year226Bus inspectors-cleaning staff-vehicle wash operators (2) €/per year227 Assistant €/per year228 Guard (2) €/per year

23 Administration Costs €/per year231 Communications €/per year232 Transportation costs €/per year233 Office supplies €/per year 114,37 117,46 120,63 123,89 127,24 130,67 134,20 137,82 141,54 145,36 149,29 153,32 157,46 161,71 166,08 234 Raamatupidamisteenused €/per year

24 Management Costs €/per year241 Electricity €/per year242 Heating €/per year243 Waste management €/per year

2431 Non-hazardous waste €/per year 66,35 68,14 69,98 71,87 73,81 75,80 77,85 79,95 82,11 84,32 86,60 88,94 91,34 93,81 96,34 2432 Waste oils and other dangerous waste €/per year 96,65 99,26 101,94 104,69 107,52 110,42 113,40 116,46 119,61 122,84 126,15 129,56 133,06 136,65 140,34 2433 Used tyres €/per year

244 Water and sewerage €/per year2441Water and sewerage: water intended for human consumption €/per year2442 Water and sewerage: vehicle wash €/per year

245 Cleaning of territory €/per year25 Other Costs €/per year

251 Insurance €/per year252 Land tax €/per year

3 Operating cash-flows

4 Profit Expectations €/per year5 operating costs+profit expectations €/per year

6 Operating cash-flows in total €/per year 170585,40 170970,85 171189,45 171229,25 171077,67 170721,46 170146,67 169338,62 168281,87 166960,17 165356,45 163452,73 161230,14 158668,84 155747,98

1 281 871,47 1 316 482,00 1 352 027,01 1 388 531,74 1 426 022,10 1 464 524,69 1 504 066,86 1 544 676,66 1 586 382,93 1 629 215,27 1 673 204,09 1 718 380,60 1 764 776,87 1 812 425,85 1 861 361,35 415 726,22 426 950,83 438 478,50 450 317,42 462 475,99 474 962,84 487 786,84 500 957,08 514 482,92 528 373,96 542 640,06 557 291,34 572 338,21 587 791,34 603 661,71 132 305,56 135 877,81 139 546,51 143 314,27 147 183,75 151 157,71 155 238,97 159 430,43 163 735,05 168 155,89 172 696,10 177 358,90 182 147,59 187 065,57 192 116,34 283 420,66 291 073,02 298 931,99 307 003,15 315 292,24 323 805,13 332 547,86 341 526,66 350 747,88 360 218,07 369 943,96 379 932,44 390 190,62 400 725,77 411 545,36 746 193,47 766 340,69 787 031,89 808 281,75 830 105,36 852 518,20 875 536,19 899 175,67 923 453,41 948 386,65 973 993,09 1 000 290,91 1 027 298,76 1 055 035,83 1 083 521,80

2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 2 295,00 636 994,42 654 193,27 671 856,49 689 996,61 708 626,52 727 759,44 747 408,94 767 588,99 788 313,89 809 598,36 831 457,52 853 906,87 876 962,36 900 640,34 924 957,63

91 403,01 93 870,89 96 405,41 99 008,35 101 681,58 104 426,98 107 246,51 110 142,17 113 116,00 116 170,14 119 306,73 122 528,01 125 836,27 129 233,85 132 723,16

87 308,05 89 665,37 92 086,33 94 572,66 97 126,12 99 748,53 102 441,74 105 207,67 108 048,27 110 965,58 113 961,65 117 038,61 120 198,65 123 444,02 126 777,01 28 548,77 29 319,59 30 111,22 30 924,22 31 759,17 32 616,67 33 497,32 34 401,75 35 330,59 36 284,52 37 264,20 38 270,34 39 303,64 40 364,83 41 454,68

1 058 367,69 1 090 963,00 1 124 607,20 1 159 335,70 1 195 185,16 1 232 193,55 1 270 400,18 1 309 845,75 1 350 572,44 1 392 623,91 1 436 045,37 1 480 883,68 1 527 187,36 1 575 006,67 1 624 393,69 722 487,67 741 994,84 762 028,70 782 603,47 803 733,77 825 434,58 847 721,31 870 609,79 894 116,25 918 257,39 943 050,34 968 512,70 994 662,54 1 021 518,43 1 049 099,43 606 661,35 623 041,21 639 863,32 657 139,63 674 882,40 693 104,23 711 818,04 731 037,13 750 775,13 771 046,06 791 864,30 813 244,64 835 202,25 857 752,71 880 912,03

11 864,55 12 184,90 12 513,89 12 851,76 13 198,76 13 555,13 13 921,12 14 296,99 14 683,01 15 079,45 15 486,59 15 904,73 16 334,16 16 775,18 17 228,11 13 130,11 13 484,62 13 848,70 14 222,62 14 606,63 15 001,01 15 406,04 15 822,00 16 249,19 16 687,92 17 138,50 17 601,23 18 076,47 18 564,53 19 065,78 83 150,52 85 395,59 87 701,27 90 069,20 92 501,07 94 998,60 97 563,56 100 197,78 102 903,12 105 681,50 108 534,90 111 465,34 114 474,91 117 565,73 120 740,00 80 875,54 83 059,18 85 301,78 87 604,93 89 970,26 92 399,46 94 894,24 97 456,39 100 087,71 102 790,08 105 565,41 108 415,68 111 342,90 114 349,16 117 436,58

2 274,98 2 336,40 2 399,49 2 464,27 2 530,81 2 599,14 2 669,32 2 741,39 2 815,41 2 891,42 2 969,49 3 049,67 3 132,01 3 216,57 3 303,42 2 020,02 2 074,56 2 130,58 2 188,10 2 247,18 2 307,85 2 370,17 2 434,16 2 499,88 2 567,38 2 636,70 2 707,89 2 781,00 2 856,09 2 933,20 5 661,11 5 813,96 5 970,94 6 132,15 6 297,72 6 467,76 6 642,39 6 821,73 7 005,92 7 195,08 7 389,35 7 588,86 7 793,76 8 004,19 8 220,30

267 959,12 279 213,40 290 940,36 303 159,86 315 892,57 329 160,06 342 984,78 357 390,14 372 400,53 388 041,35 404 339,09 421 321,33 439 016,83 457 455,53 476 668,66 44 166,90 46 021,91 47 954,83 49 968,94 52 067,63 54 254,47 56 533,16 58 907,55 61 381,67 63 959,70 66 646,01 69 445,14 72 361,83 75 401,03 78 567,87 36 662,28 38 202,10 39 806,58 41 478,46 43 220,56 45 035,82 46 927,32 48 898,27 50 952,00 53 091,98 55 321,85 57 645,36 60 066,47 62 589,26 65 218,01 36 662,28 38 202,10 39 806,58 41 478,46 43 220,56 45 035,82 46 927,32 48 898,27 50 952,00 53 091,98 55 321,85 57 645,36 60 066,47 62 589,26 65 218,01 36 662,28 38 202,10 39 806,58 41 478,46 43 220,56 45 035,82 46 927,32 48 898,27 50 952,00 53 091,98 55 321,85 57 645,36 60 066,47 62 589,26 65 218,01 36 662,28 38 202,10 39 806,58 41 478,46 43 220,56 45 035,82 46 927,32 48 898,27 50 952,00 53 091,98 55 321,85 57 645,36 60 066,47 62 589,26 65 218,01 22 822,88 23 781,44 24 780,26 25 821,03 26 905,51 28 035,54 29 213,04 30 439,98 31 718,46 33 050,64 34 438,77 35 885,19 37 392,37 38 962,85 40 599,29 21 476,46 22 378,47 23 318,37 24 297,74 25 318,24 26 381,61 27 489,64 28 644,20 29 847,26 31 100,84 32 407,08 33 768,18 35 186,44 36 664,27 38 204,17 32 843,75 34 223,19 35 660,56 37 158,31 38 718,96 40 345,15 42 039,65 43 805,32 45 645,14 47 562,23 49 559,85 51 641,36 53 810,30 56 070,33 58 425,29

8 678,50 8 912,82 9 153,47 9 400,61 9 654,43 9 915,10 10 182,81 10 457,74 10 740,10 11 030,09 11 327,90 11 633,75 11 947,86 12 270,46 12 601,76 2 200,76 2 260,18 2 321,20 2 383,88 2 448,24 2 514,34 2 582,23 2 651,95 2 723,55 2 797,09 2 872,61 2 950,17 3 029,83 3 111,63 3 195,65 4 652,77 4 778,39 4 907,41 5 039,91 5 175,99 5 315,74 5 459,26 5 606,66 5 758,04 5 913,51 6 073,17 6 237,15 6 405,55 6 578,50 6 756,12

1 710,61 1 756,79 1 804,23 1 852,94 1 902,97 1 954,35 2 007,12 2 061,31 2 116,97 2 174,12 2 232,82 2 293,11 2 355,02 2 418,61 2 483,91 57 342,12 58 890,35 60 480,39 62 113,36 63 790,43 65 512,77 67 281,61 69 098,22 70 963,87 72 879,89 74 847,65 76 868,54 78 943,99 81 075,47 83 264,51 22 214,51 22 814,30 23 430,29 24 062,91 24 712,61 25 379,85 26 065,10 26 768,86 27 491,62 28 233,89 28 996,21 29 779,11 30 583,14 31 408,89 32 256,93 18 419,90 18 917,24 19 428,01 19 952,56 20 491,28 21 044,55 21 612,75 22 196,29 22 795,59 23 411,07 24 043,17 24 692,34 25 359,03 26 043,73 26 746,91

1 300,49 1 335,60 1 371,66 1 408,70 1 446,73 1 485,79 1 525,91 1 567,11 1 609,42 1 652,87 1 697,50 1 743,33 1 790,40 1 838,75 1 888,39

1 137,49 1 168,20 1 199,74 1 232,14 1 265,40 1 299,57 1 334,66 1 370,69 1 407,70 1 445,71 1 484,75 1 524,83 1 566,00 1 608,29 1 651,71 12 919,20 13 268,02 13 626,26 13 994,16 14 372,01 14 760,05 15 158,57 15 567,85 15 988,19 16 419,87 16 863,20 17 318,51 17 786,11 18 266,33 18 759,53

1 187,53 1 219,59 1 252,52 1 286,34 1 321,07 1 356,74 1 393,37 1 430,99 1 469,63 1 509,31 1 550,06 1 591,91 1 634,89 1 679,04 1 724,37 11 731,67 12 048,43 12 373,73 12 707,82 13 050,94 13 403,31 13 765,20 14 136,86 14 518,56 14 910,56 15 313,14 15 726,60 16 151,22 16 587,30 17 035,16

8 589,72 8 821,65 9 059,83 9 304,44 9 555,66 9 813,67 10 078,64 10 350,76 10 630,23 10 917,25 11 212,01 11 514,74 11 825,63 12 144,93 12 472,84 1 900,28 1 951,58 2 004,28 2 058,39 2 113,97 2 171,05 2 229,67 2 289,87 2 351,69 2 415,19 2 480,40 2 547,37 2 616,15 2 686,78 2 759,33 2 899,48 2 977,77 3 058,17 3 140,74 3 225,54 3 312,63 3 402,07 3 493,93 3 588,26 3 685,15 3 784,65 3 886,83 3 991,78 4 099,55 4 210,24 1 900,28 1 951,58 2 004,28 2 058,39 2 113,97 2 171,05 2 229,67 2 289,87 2 351,69 2 415,19 2 480,40 2 547,37 2 616,15 2 686,78 2 759,33 223 503,78 225 519,00 227 419,81 229 196,04 230 836,93 232 331,14 233 666,68 234 830,91 235 810,49 236 591,37 237 158,71 237 496,91 237 589,51 237 419,17 236 967,66

52 918,38 54 548,15 56 230,36 57 966,79 59 759,26 61 609,68 63 520,01 65 492,29 67 528,62 69 631,20 71 802,27 74 044,18 76 359,37 78 750,33 81 219,68 1 111 286,07 1 145 511,15 1 180 837,56 1 217 302,49 1 254 944,42 1 293 803,23 1 333 920,19 1 375 338,04 1 418 101,06 1 462 255,10 1 507 847,64 1 554 927,87 1 603 546,73 1 653 757,01 1 705 613,37

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Nr Cash-flows NVA1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20261 Operating cash-flows2 Capital cash-flows 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

21 initial investment 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,0022 replacement investment 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,0023 residual value 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

3 Finance cash-flows 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,0031 Loan32 loan repayment

4 Cash-flows in total5 discount cash-flows6 cumulative cash-flows

Profitability\accounting period 30 25 20 15 10 5NVA

IRR 16,48% 16,04% 15,23% 11,71% -0,87% -29,34%payback period 13,00 13,00 13,00 13,00 over the accounting period over the accounting period

Basic data on figureProject incomeProject costs

1 294 775,19 163 485,11 153 076,33 154 836,91 156 545,40 158 196,18 159 783,34 161 300,62 162 741,40 164 098,68 165 365,07 166 532,74 167 593,46 168 538,53 169 358,75 170 044,44-1 320 187,39 -1 359 751,96 -190 364,29-1 246 833,62 -1 359 751,96

-73 353,77 -190 364,29

99 452,46 831 026,51 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87872 783,54 951 826,38

-773 331,08 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,87 -120 799,8774 040,26 -365 240,35 32 276,46 34 037,04 35 745,53 37 396,31 38 983,47 40 500,75 41 941,53 43 298,81 44 565,20 -23 831,55 167 593,46 168 538,53 169 358,75 170 044,44

-124 953,00 -365 240,35 29 596,11 28 618,67 27 559,30 26 437,72 25 271,12 24 074,43 22 860,51 21 640,46 20 423,73 -10 014,76 64 579,40 59 550,43 54 870,91 50 517,96-365 240,35 -335 644,24 -307 025,57 -279 466,27 -253 028,56 -227 757,43 -203 683,01 -180 822,49 -159 182,03 -138 758,30 -148 773,06 -84 193,66 -24 643,23 30 227,69 80 745,65

411 935,99 2 145 345,50 1 490 261,00 635 208,38 -16 495,25 -225 785,02

1 813 928 882 792 906 627 931 106 956 246 982 065 1 008 580 1 035 812 1 063 779 1 092 501 1 121 998 1 152 292 1 183 404 1 215 356 1 248 171 2 179 168 608 916 630 990 653 761 677 250 701 481 726 480 752 271 778 880 806 336 765 101 984 699 1 014 866 1 045 997 1 078 126

Nr Cash-flows16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 20411 Operating cash-flows2 Capital cash-flows 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

21 initial investment 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,0022 replacement investment 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,0023 residual value 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

3 Finance cash-flows 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,0031 Loan32 loan repayment

4 Cash-flows in total5 discount cash-flows6 cumulative cash-flows

Basic data on figureProject incomeProject costs

170 585,40 170 970,85 171 189,45 171 229,25 171 077,67 170 721,46 170 146,67 169 338,62 168 281,87 166 960,17 165 356,45 163 452,73 161 230,14 158 668,84 155 747,98-190 364,29

-190 364,29

170 585,40 170 970,85 171 189,45 171 229,25 171 077,67 -19 642,83 170 146,67 169 338,62 168 281,87 166 960,17 165 356,45 163 452,73 161 230,14 158 668,84 155 747,9846 470,14 42 707,39 39 210,90 35 963,05 32 947,37 -3 468,81 27 551,71 25 143,74 22 911,84 20 844,16 18 929,60 17 157,79 15 519,01 14 004,20 12 604,86

127 215,79 169 923,18 209 134,08 245 097,13 278 044,50 274 575,69 302 127,40 327 271,13 350 182,98 371 027,13 389 956,73 407 114,52 422 633,53 436 637,73 449 242,59

1 281 871 1 316 482 1 352 027 1 388 532 1 426 022 1 464 525 1 504 067 1 544 677 1 586 383 1 629 215 1 673 204 1 718 381 1 764 777 1 812 426 1 861 361 1 111 286 1 145 511 1 180 838 1 217 302 1 254 944 1 103 439 1 333 920 1 375 338 1 418 101 1 462 255 1 507 848 1 554 928 1 603 547 1 653 757 1 705 613