federal budget projections

8/9/2019 Federal Budget Projections

1/35

U.S. posts 19th straight monthly budgetdeficit

(Reuters) - The United States posted an $82.69

billion deficit in April, nearly four times the $20.91

billion shortfall registered in April 2009 and the largest

on record for that month, the Treasury Department

said on Wednesday.

GREECE

It was more than twice the $40-billion deficit that Wall Street economists surveyed by Reuters had

forecast and was striking since April marks the filing deadline for individual income taxes that are

the main source of government revenue.

Department officials said that in prior years, there was a surplus during April in 43 out of the past

56 years.

The government has now posted 19 consecutive monthly budget deficits, the longest string of

shortfalls on record.

For the first seven months of fiscal 2010, which ends September 30, the cumulative budget deficit

totals $799.68 billion, down slightly from $802.3 billion in the comparable period of fiscal 2009.

Outlays during April rose to $327.96 billion from $218.75 billion in March and were up from

$287.11 billion in April 2009. It was a record level of outlays for an April.

Department officials noted there were five Fridays in April this year, which helped account for

higher outlays since most tax refunds are issued on that day.

But for the first seven months of the fiscal year, outlays fell to $1.99 trillion from $2.06 trillion in the

comparable period of fiscal 2009, partly because of repayments by banks of bailout funds they

received during the financial crisis.

Receipts in April -- mostly from income taxes -- were $245.27 billion, up from $153.36 billion in

March but lower than the $266.21 billion taken in during April 2009.


2/35

COMMENTS SEE ALL COMMENTS (244)

GREECE

May 12, 2010 2:33pm EDT Its over, send a thank you note to the bufoons in Congressresponsible for bankrupting the nation and also to the FED

NomorekoolaidReport As Abusive

May 12, 2010 2:42pm EDT To Anacreon in heaven where he sat in full glee,A few sons of harmony sent a petition,That he their inspirer and patron would be,When this answer arrived from the jolly old Grecian:Voice, fiddle aud flute, no longer be mute,Ill lend you my name and inspire you to boot!And besides Ill instruct you like me to entwineThe myrtle of Venus and Bacchuss vine.

We are all Greeks now.

KyungReport As Abusive

May 12, 2010 3:31pm EDT Watching Europe, watching Europe. Everything is a mess inEuropa. Wake up the biggest problems are still in the US. WallStreet must gain for what? The biggest mistake in history has

been made by your government.foreignerReport As Abusive

May 12, 2010 3:35pm EDT Stop the damned spending We are going off a fiscal cliff.

jindy60

Jindy60Report As Abusive

May 12, 2010 3:36pm EDT My account cant be overdrawn I still have checks left!

RalphCramdenReport As Abusive

May 12, 2010 3:37pm EDT The Trojan horse Obama is right on track where he wants us.

LutzitoReport As Abusive

May 12, 2010 3:38pm EDT Gbye yall. Been nice knowing you as Fellow Americans but Ithink Ill keep my posterior down here in the Republic of Texas asthe house of cards collapses. Hey, at least we have an embassywe can re-establish in London (still has our name on it andeverything). No other state can lay that claim!!

mtnechoReport As Abusive

Receipts from individuals, who faced an April 15 filing deadline for paying 2009 taxes, fell to

$107.31 billion from $137.67 billion in April 2009.

The U.S. full-year deficit this year is projected at $1.5 trillion on top of a $1.4 trillion shortfall last

year.

White House budget director Peter Orszag told Reuters Insider in an interview on Wednesday that

the United States must tackle its deficits quickly to avoid the kind of debt crisis that hit Greece.

(Reporting by Glenn Somerville, Editing by Diane Craft)

May 12, 2010


3/35


4/35

JANUARY 2010 CURRENT BUDGET PROJECTIONS: SELECTED TABLES FROM CBOS BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

C

Summary Table 2.

CBOs Baseline Budget Outlook

Source: Congressional Budget Office.Note: n.a. = not applicable.

a. Off-budget surpluses comprise surpluses in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service.

Total, Total,

Actual 2011- 2011-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2020

Total Revenues 2,105 2,175 2,670 2,964 3,218 3,465 3,625 3,814 3,996 4,170 4,352 4,563 15,941 36,836

Total Outlays 3,518 3,524 3,650 3,613 3,756 3,940 4,105 4,335 4,521 4,712 5,000 5,250 19,065 42,883_____ _____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ _____ _____Total Deficit (-) or Surplus -1,414 -1,349 -980 -650 -539 -475 -480 -521 -525 -542 -649 -687 -3,124 -6,047

On-budget -1,551 -1,434 -1,076 -757 -659 -608 -619 -659 -659 -669 -765 -793 -3,719 -7,263

Off-budgeta

137 86 96 108 120 133 139 138 134 127 116 107 595 1,216

Debt Held by the Public at the

End of the Year 7,544 8,797 9,785 10,479 11,056 11,556 12,055 12,595 13,133 13,678 14,329 15,027 n.a. n.a.

Total Revenues 14.8 14.9 17.8 18.8 19.3 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 19.1 19.6

Total Outlays 24.7 24.1 24.3 23.0 22.5 22.4 22.3 22.6 22.6 22.6 23.1 23.3 22.9 22.8 ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ ____

Total Deficit -9.9 -9.2 -6.5 -4.1 -3.2 -2.7 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -3.0 -3.0 -3.7 -3.2

End of the Year 53.0 60.3 65.3 66.6 66.3 65.6 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.7 66.1 66.7 n.a. n.a.

Memorandum:

Gross D omestic Product

(Billions of dollars) 14,236 14,595 14,992 15,730 16,676 17,606 18,421 19,223 20,036 20,823 21,667 22,544 83,425 187,719

In Billions of Dollars

As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product


5/35


6/35

CURRENT BUDGET PROJECTIONS: SELECTED TABLES FROM CBOS BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Table E-1.

CBOs Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Calendar Years 2009 to 2020

Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor

Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Notes: Percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditure.

a. The personal consumption expenditure price index.

b. The personal consumption expenditure price index excluding prices for food and energy.

c. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

e. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry.

Estimated

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

14,253 14,706 15,116 15,969 16,918 17,816 18,622 19,425 20,231 21,033 21,882 22,770

-1.3 3.2 2.8 5.6 5.9 5.3 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1

-2.5 2.2 1.9 4.6 4.8 3.9 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3

1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

PCE Price Indexa

0.2 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Core PCE Price Indexb

1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8

-0.2 2.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

1.8 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

1.5 1.6 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

9.3 10.1 9.5 8.0 6.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8

3.2 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

Domestic economic profits 990 1,263 1,307 1,387 1,462 1,487 1,471 1,468 1,484 1,506 1,542 1,588

Wages and salaries 6,329 6,517 6,671 7,149 7,624 8,061 8,445 8,818 9,189 9,554 9,938 10,365

Domestic economic profits 6.9 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.0

Wages and salaries 44.4 44.3 44.1 44.8 45.1 45.2 45.3 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.5

Tax Bases

(Percentage of GDP)

Ten-Year Treasury

Note Rate (Percent)

Tax Bases

(Billions of dollars)

Unemployment Rate

(Percent)

Three-Month Treasury

Bill Rate (Percent)

Core Consumer Price Indexd

(Percentage change)

Employment Cost Indexe

(Percentage change)

(Percentage change)

Consumer Price Indexc

(Percentage change)

Real GDP

(Percentage change)

GDP Price Index

(Percentage change)

Nominal GDP


Nominal GDP

(Percentage change)

Forecast Projected


7/35

CURRENT BUDGET PROJECTIONS: SELECTED TABLES FROM CBOS BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor

Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Notes: Percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

GDP = gross domestic product; PCE = personal consumption expenditure.

a. The personal consumption expenditure price index.

b. The personal consumption expenditure price index excluding prices for food and energy.

c. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

e. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry.

Actual

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

14,236 14,595 14,992 15,730 16,676 17,606 18,421 19,223 20,036 20,823 21,667 22,544

-1.4 2.5 2.7 4.9 6.0 5.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.0

-2.9 1.6 1.8 3.9 4.9 4.3 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.2

1.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

PCE Price Indexa

0.3 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Core PCE Price Index

b

1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8

-0.3 2.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

1.8 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

1.9 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

8.5 10.2 9.8 8.4 6.7 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

0.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.7 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8

3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

Domestic economic profits 905 1,226 1,298 1,362 1,445 1,487 1,476 1,466 1,482 1,497 1,532 1,576

Wages and salaries 6,374 6,432 6,638 7,027 7,504 7,961 8,349 8,726 9,099 9,459 9,841 10,254

Domestic economic profits 6.4 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.4 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0

Wages and salaries 44.8 44.1 44.3 44.7 45.0 45.2 45.3 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.5

Tax Bases

(Percentage of GDP)

Ten-Year Treasury

Note Rate (Percent)

Tax Bases


Unemployment Rate

(Percent)

Three-Month Treasury

Bill Rate (Percent)

Core Consumer Price Indexd

(Percentage change)

Employment Cost Indexe

(Percentage change)

(Percentage change)

Consumer Price Indexc

(Percentage change)

Real GDP

(Percentage change)

GDP Price Index

(Percentage change)

Nominal GDP


Nominal GDP

(Percentage change)

Forecast Projected


8/35

Actual

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revenues

915 945 1,258 1,434 1,595 1,729 1,854

138 148 269 321 352 397 368

891 878 934 993 1,056 1,115 1,165

161 205 212 219 218 228 242

_____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____

2,105 2,176 2,673 2,967 3,221 3,469 3,629

On-budge 1,451 1,535 2,000 2,256 2,467 2,671 2,793

Off-budg 654 642 673 711 754 797 836

Outlays

2,094 1,969 2,058 1,982 2,063 2,177 2,267

1,237 1,367 1,373 1,345 1,345 1,356 1,372

187 209 238 282 337 399 462

_____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____

3,518 3,545 3,668 3,609 3,746 3,931 4,101

On-budge 3,001 2,988 3,090 3,003 3,110 3,265 3,402

Off-budg 517 557 579 605 636 666 699

Deficit (-) or Surplus -1,413 -1,368 -996 -642 -525 -463 -472

-1,550 -1,453 -1,089 -747 -643 -593 -609

137 85 94 106 118 131 137

Individual income taxes

Corporate income taxes

Social insurance taxes

Other revenues

Total Revenues

Mandatory spending

Discretionary spending

Net interest

Total Outlays

On-budget

Off-budget



9/35

Total,

2011-

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020

Revenues

1,969 2,091 2,199 2,316 2,448 18,894

390 396 403 406 419 3,721

1,212 1,260 1,310 1,361 1,416 11,820

247 254 262 272 283 2,437

_____ _____ _____ _____ _____ ______

3,818 4,000 4,174 4,355 4,567 36,872

On-budge 2,947 3,092 3,229 3,373 3,543 28,371

Off-budg 871 908 945 982 1,024 8,501

Outlays

2,412 2,523 2,633 2,834 3,005 23,955

1,401 1,425 1,449 1,484 1,517 14,067

517 573 626 678 729 4,841

_____ _____ _____ _____ _____ ______

4,331 4,521 4,708 4,996 5,251 42,862

On-budge 3,595 3,744 3,887 4,127 4,329 35,552

Off-budg 736 777 821 869 922 7,310

Deficit (-) or Surplus -513 -521 -534 -641 -684 -5,990

-649 -652 -658 -754 -786 -7,181

136 131 124 113 102 1,191

On-budget

Off-budget


Mandatory spending

Discretionary spending

Net interest

Total Outlays

Social insurance taxes

Other revenues

Total Revenues

Individual income taxes

Corporate income taxes


10/35

Projections of Mandatory Outlay Actual

Outlays, billions of dollars 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

678 702 728 761 799 837 880

499 532 574 579 637 711 739

251 277 263 264 275 291 311

56 71 75 76 74 72 69

120 145 88 67 54 48 4945 48 54 46 52 53 54

67 72 69 42 43 44 45

26 28 26 25 25 25 25

16 17 18 19 20 20 21

7 7 7 7 8 8 8

Making Work Pay and other tax cr 13 25 20 0 0 0 0

Subtotal 350 414 357 283 276 270 271

138 141 143 147 151 156 160

Veteranse

50 62 71 62 68 70 72

Fannie Mae and Freddie Macf

91 21 13 10 8 6 6

TARP 151 -56 4 4 3 3 0

16 18 18 12 17 16 16

8 8 9 9 10 11 12

-18 -20 -4 -4 -4 -4 1

8 9 9 9 9 9 9

8 9 9 10 10 9 7

5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Deposit Insurance 23 -13 13 0 -17 -17 -17

32 42 38 35 31 30 29Subtotal 325 22 115 91 73 68 69

Medicareg

-74 -75 -81 -87 -95 -104 -109

Employer's share of Retirement -56 -60 -62 -64 -65 -67 -69

Other -67 -46 -51 -54 -56 -56 -57

Subtotal -197 -181 -194 -205 -216 -227 -236

2,094 1,969 2,058 1,982 2,063 2,177 2,267

Social Security

Medicarea

Medicaid

Income Security

SNAP

Unemployment compensationSupplemental Security Income

Earned income and child tax credit

Family supportb

Child nutrition

Foster care

Civilian and Military Retirement

Other Programs

Agriculture

MERHCF

Higher education

Universal Service Fund

CHIP

Social services

Other

Offsetting Receipts

Total Mandatory Spending


11/35

Total,

Projections of Mandatory Outlay 2011-

Outlays, billions of dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020

880 929 984 1,043 1,107 1,174 9,242

739 800 836 874 970 1,046 7,767

311 335 360 386 414 444 3,345

69 67 65 62 62 61 68349 51 52 54 56 58 578

54 61 57 53 60 62 553

45 44 44 45 45 45 467

25 25 25 25 25 25 249

21 22 23 23 24 25 216

8 8 8 9 9 9 82

Making Work Pay and other tax cr 0 0 0 0 0 0 22

Subtotal 271 278 275 272 282 286 2,849

160 166 171 177 183 189 1,644

Veterans

e

72 79 76 72 79 81 730

Fannie Mae and Freddie Macf

6 5 4 3 3 3 64

TARP 0 0 0 0 0 0 15

16 16 16 16 16 16 159

12 12 13 14 16 17 123

1 3 5 6 7 7 14

9 9 9 10 10 10 94

7 6 6 6 6 6 75

5 5 5 5 6 6 53

Deposit Insurance -17 -14 -9 -8 -5 -5 -81

29 29 32 32 32 32 320

Subtotal 69 72 82 85 90 91 836

Medicareg

-109 -116 -123 -130 -142 -154 -1,140

Employer's share of Retirement -69 -72 -75 -78 -81 -84 -716

Other -57 -60 -64 -67 -67 -70 -603

Subtotal -236 -247 -262 -275 -290 -307 -2,459

2,267 2,412 2,523 2,633 2,834 3,005 23,955

Offsetting Receipts

Total Mandatory Spending

Universal Service Fund

CHIP

Social services

Other

Other Programs

Agriculture

MERHCF

Higher education

Family supportb

Child nutrition

Foster care

Civilian and Military Retirement

SNAPUnemployment compensation

Supplemental Security Income

Earned income and child tax credit

Social Security

Medicarea

Medicaid

Income Security


12/35

Discretionaray Budget Authority

Defense 684.1 33.0 717.1 733.1 16.0 2.2%

Nondefense

52.9 4.5 57.4 58.8 1.5 2.5%

technology 31.0 0.0 31.0 31.3 0.4 1.2%

5.3 0.0 5.3 6.4 1.1 20.0%

36.5 0.0 36.5 35.7 -0.8 -2.2%

6.9 1.2 8.0 6.6 -1.4 -18.1%

8.5 0.0 8.5 2.3 -6.2 -72.6%

35.8 0.0 35.8 33.7 -2.1 -5.9%

15.9 7.1 23.0 20.7 -2.3 -9.9%

89.3 0.0 89.3 76.1 -13.2 -14.7%

58.1 0.0 58.1 59.8 1.7 2.9%

5.9 0.0 5.9 6.5 0.6 9.4%

66.2 0.0 66.2 66.4 0.2 0.3%

5.8 0.0 5.8 6.3 0.5 7.9%

53.2 0.0 53.2 57.2 3.9 7.4%

51.7 0.0 51.7 48.9 -2.9 -5.5%

19.1 1.4 20.5 20.2 -0.3 -1.6%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7%

____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____

Subtotal, nondefense 542.1 14.1 556.2 536.8 -19.4 -3.5%

Total 1,226.2 47.1 1,273.3 1,269.9 -3.4 -0.3%

Defense excluding Iraq and Afghanistan 554.1 2.0 556.1 573.8 17.7 3.2%

Transportation Obligation Limitations 54.2 0 54.2 54.5 0.2 0.4%

Other

Medicare (Administrative costs)

Income security

Administration of justice

General government

Social Security (Administrative costs)

Veterans benefits and services

Natural resources and environment

Agriculture

Commerce and housing credit

Transportation

Community and regional development

Education, training, employment, andsocial services

Health

Percent

International affairs

General science, space, and

Energy

Billions of

Enacted Requesteda

Funding Funding Dollars

Regular Supplemental 2010 Total 2011 Total

Billions

Change in Funding

20102011

Funding for 2010


13/35


14/35

United States public debt 1

United States public debt

U.S. debt from 1940 to 2009. Red lines indicate the Debt Held by the Public

(public debt) and black lines indicate the gross debt, the difference being that thegross debt includes funds held by the government (e.g. the Social Security Trust

Fund). The second chart shows debt as a percentage of U.S. GDP or dollar value of

economic production per year. Data from U.S. Budget historical tables at

whitehouse.gov/omb[1]

and other tables listed when you click on the figure. Note

that the top panel is deflated to 2009 dollars and not in nominal year dollars.

When the government spends more than it

receives in tax revenue, it borrows the rest

by issuing US Treasury Securities. The

United States public debt, or the national

debt, is the sum of all these outstanding

securities.[2]

It should not be confused with

the trade deficit, which is the difference

between net imports and net exports. State

and Local Government Series securities,

issued by state and local governments, are

not part of the United States government

debt.[3]

The national debt is presented by the UnitedStates Treasury as two calculations: "Debt

Held by the Public", defined as U.S.

Treasury securities held by institutions

outside the United States Government, and

the "Gross Debt," which includes

intra-government obligations (e.g., the

Social Security Trust fund).[2]

As of June 1, 2010, the Total Public Debt

Outstanding was approximately 88.9% of

GDP, and for the first time exceeded $13

trillion.[4]

[5]

Within the remainder of this

article the phrase "Public Debt" is employed

as a shorthand for "Debt Held by the

Public".

The annual government deficit or surplus refers to the cash difference between government receipts and spending

ignoring intra-governmental transfers. The gross debt increases or decreases as a result of this unified budget deficit

or surplus. However, there is certain spending (supplemental appropriations) that add to the gross debt but are

excluded from the deficit. The total debt has increased over $500 billion each year since FY 2003, with increases of

$1 trillion in FY2008 and $1.9 trillion in FY2009.[6]
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Fiscal_yearhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=GDPhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Trade_deficithttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=United_States_Treasury_securityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:USDebt.pnghttp://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/pdf/hist.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=GDPhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Social_Security_Trust_Fundhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Social_Security_Trust_Fund


15/35


History

The US Federal Debt from 1800 to 1999

Graph of U.S. gross federal debt between 1940 and 2010 as a percentage of GDP, broken

down by presidential terms

USDebt by GDP since 1948:Annual

and Cumulative[7]

The United States has had public debt

since its inception. Debts incurred

during the American Revolutionary

War and under the Articles of

Confederation led to the first yearly

reported value of $75,463,476.52 on

January 1, 1791. Over the following 45

years, the debt grew, briefly contracted

to zero on January 8, 1835 under

President Andrew Jackson but then

quickly grew into the millions again.[8]

The first dramatic growth spurt of the

debt occurred because of the Civil

War. The debt was just $65 million in

1860, but passed $1 billion in 1863 and

had reached $2.7 billion following the

war. The debt slowly fluctuated for the

rest of the century, finally growing

steadily in the 1910s and early 1920s

to roughly $22 billion as the country

paid for involvement in World War

I.[8]

The buildup and involvement in World

War II plus social programs during the

F.D. Roosevelt and Truman

presidencies in the 1930s and 40's

caused a sixteenfold increase in the

gross debt from $16 billion in 1930 to $260 billion in 1950.

After this period, the growth of the gross debt closely matched the rate of inflation where it tripled in size from $260

billion in 1950 to around $909 billion in 1980. Gross debt in nominal dollars quadrupled during the Reagan and

Bush presidencies from 1980 to 1992. The Public debt quintupled in nominal terms.

In nominal dollars the public debt rose and then fell between 1992 and 2000 from $3T in 1992 to $3.4T in 2000.

During the administration of President George W. Bush, the gross debt increased from $5.6 trillion in January 2001

to $10.7 trillion by December 2008,[9]

rising from 58% of GDP to 70.2% of GDP. During March 2009, the

Congressional Budget Office estimated that gross debt will rise from 70.2% of GDP in 2008 to 100.6% in 2012.[10]
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Congressional_Budget_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=World_War_IIhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=World_War_Ihttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=World_War_Ihttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=American_Civil_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=American_Civil_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Andrew_Jacksonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Articles_of_Confederationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Articles_of_Confederationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=American_Revolutionary_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=American_Revolutionary_Warhttp://www.magcom.org/usdebt.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:US_Federal_Debt_as_Percent_of_GDP_by_President.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:US_Federal_Debt.png


16/35


YearGross Debt in Billions

undeflated[11]

as % of GDP Debt Held By Public ($Billions) as % of GDP

1910 2.6 unk. 2.6 unk.

1920 25.9 unk. 25.9 unk.

1928 18.5[12] unk. 18.5 unk.

1930 16.2 unk. 16.2 unk.

1940 50.6 52.4 42.8 44.2

1950 256.8 94.0 219.0 80.2

1960 290.5 56.0 236.8 45.6

1970 380.9 37.6 283.2 28.0

1980 909.0 33.4 711.9 26.1

1990 3,206.3 55.9 2,411.6 42.0

2000 5,628.7 58.0 3,409.8 35.1

2001 5,769.9 57.4 3,319.6 33.0

2002 6,198.4 59.7 3,540.4 34.1

2003 6,760.0 62.6 3,913.4 35.1

2004 7,354.7 63.9 4,295.5 37.3

2005 7,905.3 64.6 4,592.2 37.5

2006 8,451.4 65.0 4,829.0 37.1

2007 8,950.7 65.6 5,035.1 36.9

2008 9,985.8 70.2 5,802.7 40.8

2009 12,311.4 86.1 7,811.1 54.6

2010 (4

june)

13,050.8 90 ? ?

2010 (est.) 14,456.3 98.1 9,881.9 67.1

2011 (est.) 15,673.9 101.0 10,873.1 70.1

2012 (est.) 16,565.7 100.6 11,468.4 69.6

2013 (est.) 17,440.2 99.7 12,027.1 68.7

2014 (est.) 18,350.0 99.8 12,594.8 68.5

Debt ceiling

The Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 established a statutory limit on federal debt.[13]

Congress had previously

approved each debt issuance separately. The debt limit provided the U.S. Treasury with more leeway in the

administration of debt, allowing for modern management techniques in government finance.

The U.S. Treasury Department now conducts more than 200 sales of debt by auction every year. The Treasury has

been granted authority by Congress to issue such debt as was needed to fund government operations as long as the

total debt (excepting some small special classes) does not exceed a stated ceiling.

The most recent increase in the U.S. debt ceiling to $14.3 trillion by H.J.Res. 45[14]

and was signed into law on

February 12, 2010.
http://hdl.loc.gov/loc.uscongress/legislation.111hjres45


17/35


Components

Public and government accounts

Detailed breakdown of government holders of treasury debt and debt instruments

used of the public portion.

The national debt is broken down into 2

main categories:[15]

1. Securities held by the public

Marketable securities

Non-marketable securities

2. Securities held by government accounts

The values for fiscal years 1999-2008 are

published by the treasury[15]

and about 60%

of the debt is held by the public.

As of 2008, Social Security Federal

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust

Fund holds about half of the government

held portion of the debt at 2.2 trillion

dollars, with other large holders including

the Federal Housing Administration, the

Federal Savings and Loan Corporation's Resolution Fund and the Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund. Most of the

public debt is in notes and bills with only about one trillion in bonds and inflation protected bonds.

Estimated ownership

Estimated ownership of US public debt in 2008.

Because a large variety of people own the

notes, bills, and bonds in the "public"portion of the debt, the U.S. Treasury also

publishes information that groups the types

of holders by general categories to portray

who owns United States debt. In this data

set, some of the public portion is moved and

combined with the total government portion,

because this amount is owned by the Federal

Reserve as part of United States monetary

policy. (SeeFederal Reserve System)

As is apparent from the chart, a little less

than half of the total national debt is owed to

the "Federal Reserve and intragovernmental

holdings". The foreign and international holders of the debt are also put together from the notes, bills, and bonds

sections. Below is a chart for the data as of June 2008:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Federal_Reserve_Systemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Treasury_bonds%23TIPShttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Treasury_bondshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Treasury_Billshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Treasury_Noteshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Social_Security_Trust_Fundhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Social_Security_Trust_Fundhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Holders_of_the_National_Debt_of_the_United_States.gif


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Estimated ownership each year through time.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac obligationsexcluded

Although not included in the figures

reported by the government, the U.S.

government has moved to more explicitly

support the soundness of obligations of

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, starting in

July via the Housing and Economic

Recovery Act of 2008, and the September 7,

2008 Federal Housing Finance Agency

(FHFA) conservatorship of both government

sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The on- or

off-balance sheet obligations of those two independent GSEs was just over $5 trillion at the time the conservatorship

was put in place.[16]

The government accounts for these corporations as if they are unconnected to its balance sheet. At the inception of

the conservatorship, the U.S. Treasury contracted to receive US$1 billion in senior preferred shares, and a warrant

for 79.9% of the common shares from each GSE, as a fee to fund, as needed, up to US$100 billion total for each

GSE (in exchange for more senior preferred stock), in order to maintain solvency and adequate capital ratios at the

GSEs, thereby supporting all senior (normal) liabilities, subordinated indebtedness, and guarantees of the two firms.

Some observers see this as an effective nationalization of the companies that ultimately places taxpayers at risk for

all their liabilities[17]

[18]

The net exposure to taxpayers is difficult to determine at the time of the takeover and depends on several factors,

such as declines in housing prices and losses on mortgage assets in the future.[19]

The Congressional Budget Office

has recommended incorporating the assets and liabilities of the two companies into the federal budget due to the

degree of government control over the entities.[20]

The 5-year credit default swap spread for U.S. treasuries had risen

to 18 basis points per annum as of 9 September 2008 as a result of market perception regarding the increased debt

load of the government.[20]

On January 8, 2009, Moody's said that only 4 of the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) may be able to maintain

minimum required capital levels and the U.S. government may need to put some of them into conservatorship. [21]

According to Bloomberg, the FHLB is the largest U.S. borrower after the federal government. [21]

Guaranteed obligations excluded

Starting in late 2008, the U.S. federal government is guaranteeing large amounts of obligations relating to mutual

funds, banks, and corporations under several new programs designed to deal with the problems initiated by theLiquidity crisis of September 2008. Guarantees are off-balance sheet and therefore excluded in the calculation of

federal debt. The funding of direct investments made in response to the crisis, such as those made under the Troubled

Assets Relief Program, are captured by the debt totals.

Foreign ownership

The US debt in the hands of foreign governments was 25% of the total in 2007,[22]

virtually double the 1988 figure

of 13%.[23]

Despite the declining willingness of foreign investors to continue investing in US dollar denominated

instruments as the US dollar fell in 2007,[24]

the U.S. Treasury statistics indicate that, at the end of 2006, non-US

citizens and institutions held 44% of federal debt held by the public.[25]

About 66% of that 44% was held by the

central banks of other countries, in particular the central banks of Japan and China. In May 2009, the US owed China

$772 billion.[26]
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=People%27s_Bank_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=People%27s_Bank_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Central_bankhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Troubled_Assets_Relief_Programhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Troubled_Assets_Relief_Programhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Liquidity_crisis_of_September_2008http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeB5GL6uSr3A&refer=homehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bloomberg_L.P.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeB5GL6uSr3A&refer=homehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Conservatorshiphttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Federal_Home_Loan_Bankshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Moody%27shttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Per_annumhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Basis_pointshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Credit_default_swaphttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Congressional_Budget_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Government_sponsored_enterprisehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Government_sponsored_enterprisehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Federal_Housing_Finance_Agencyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Housing_and_Economic_Recovery_Act_of_2008http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Housing_and_Economic_Recovery_Act_of_2008http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Fannie_Maehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Freddie_Machttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Estimated_ownership_of_treasury_securities_by_year.gif


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In total, lenders from Japan and China held 44% of the foreign-owned debt.[27]

This exposure to potential financial

or political risk should foreign banks stop buying Treasury securities or start selling them heavily was addressed in a

recent report issued by the Bank of International Settlements, which stated, "'Foreign investors in U.S. dollar assets

have seen big losses measured in dollars, and still bigger ones measured in their own currency. While unlikely,

indeed highly improbable for public sector investors, a sudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely."[28]

On May 20, 2007, Kuwait discontinued pegging its currency exclusively to the dollar, preferring to use the dollar ina basket of currencies.

[29]Syria made a similar announcement on June 4, 2007.

[30]In September 2009 China, India

and Russia said they were interested in buying IMF gold to diversify their dollar-denominated securities.[31]

The following is a list of theForeign Owners of U.S. Treasury Securities as listed by the U.S. Treasury:[27]

Leading Foreign owners of US Treasury Securities (Feb 2010)

Nation billions of

dollars

percentage

People's Republic of China (mainland) 877.5 23.4

Japan 768.5 20.5

United Kingdom 233.5 6.2

Oil exporters 218.8 5.8

Brazil 170.8 4.6

Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (Hong Kong) 152.4 4.1

Republic of China (Taiwan) 121.4 3.2

Russia 120.2 3.2

Grand Total 3750.5 65.8

Statistics and comparables

U.S. official gold reserves, totaling 261.5 million troy ounces, have a book value as of 30 November 2009 of

approximately $11 billion,[32]

vs. a commodity value as of 17 December 2009 of approximately $288.5 billion.[33]

A total of 161,000 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history, as of 2009.[34]

This is roughly equivalent to

5.175 billion troy ounces, which, at $1000 per troy ounce, would be $5.2 trillion.[35]

Foreign exchange reserves $134 billion as of October 2009.[36]

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve had a value of approximately $69 billion as of December 2009, at a Market

Price of $104/barrel with a $15/barrel discount for sour crude.[37]

The national debt equates to $30,400 per person U.S. population, or $60,100 per member of the U.S. working

population,[38]

as of February 2008.

In 2008, $242 billion was spent on interest payments servicing the debt, out of a total tax revenue of $2.5 trillion,

or 9.6%. Including non-cash interest accrued primarily for Social Security, interest was $454 billion or 18% of tax

revenue.[39]

Total U.S. household debt, including mortgage loan and consumer debt, was $11.4 trillion in 2005. By

comparison, total U.S. household assets, including real estate, equipment, and financial instruments such as

mutual funds, was $62.5 trillion in 2005.[40]

Total U.S Consumer Credit Card revolving credit debt was $931.0 billion in April 2009.[41]

Total third world debt was estimated to be $1.3 trillion in 1990.[42]

The U.S. balance of trade deficit in goods and services was $725.8 billion in 2005.[43]

The global market capitalization for all stock markets that are members of the World Federation of Exchanges

was $32.5 trillion by the end of 2008.[44]
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=World_Federation_of_Exchangeshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Stock_markethttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Market_capitalizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Balance_of_tradehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Developing_countries%27_debthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Revolving_credithttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mutual_fundhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Real_estatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Consumer_debthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mortgage_loanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Taxhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Interesthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sour_crude_oilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Strategic_Petroleum_Reservehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Foreign_exchange_reserveshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Troy_ouncehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Troy_ouncehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Goldhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Troy_ouncehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Official_gold_reserveshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Russiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Taiwanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hong_Konghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special_Administrative_Region_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Brazilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_exportershttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=United_Kingdomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Japanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=People%27s_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=IMFhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Bank_of_International_Settlements


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Long-term risks to financial health of federal government

Risks due to increasing entitlement spending, according to GAO's projections of future

trends.

Several government agencies provide

budget and debt data and analysis.

These include the Government

Accountability Office (GAO), the

Congressional Budget Office, the

Office of Management and Budget

(OMB), and the U.S. Treasury

Department. These agencies have

reported that the federal government is

facing a series of critical long-term

financing challenges. This is because

expenditures related to entitlement

programs such as Social Security,

Medicare, and Medicaid are growing

considerably faster than the economy

overall, as the population grows older.

These agencies have indicated that

under current law, sometime between 2030 and 2040, mandatory spending (primarily Social Security, Medicare,

Medicaid, and interest on the national debt) will exceed tax revenue. In other words, all discretionary spending (e.g.,

defense, homeland security, law enforcement, education, etc.) will require borrowing and related deficit spending.

These agencies have used such language as "unsustainable" and "trainwreck" to describe such a future.[51]

While there is significant debate about solutions,[52]

the significant long-term risk posed by the increase in

entitlement spending is widely recognized[53]

, with health care costs (Medicare and Medicaid) the primary risk

category.[54] [55] If significant reforms are not undertaken, benefits under entitlement programs will exceed

government income by over $40 trillion over the next 75 years.[56]

According to the GAO, this will cause debt ratios

relative to GDP to double by 2040 and double again by 2060, reaching 600 percent by 2080.[57]

In 2006, Professor Laurence Kotlikoff argued the United States must eventually choose between "bankruptcy",

raising taxes, or cutting payouts. He assumes there will be ever-growing payment obligations from Medicare and

Medicaid.[58]

Others who have attempted to bring this issue to the fore of America's attention range from Ross Perot

in his 1992 Presidential bid, to motivational speaker Robert Kiyosaki, and David Walker, former head of the

Government Accountability Office.[59]

[60]

Thomas Friedman has argued that increasing dependence on foreign sources of funding will render the U.S. less able

to act independently.

[61]

Unfunded obligations

The U.S. government is committed under current law to mandatory payments for programs such as Medicare,

Medicaid and Social Security. The GAO projects that payouts for these programs will significantly exceed tax

revenues over the next 75 years. The Medicare Part A (hospital insurance) payouts already exceed program tax

revenues and Social Security payroll taxes fully cover payouts only until 2017. These deficits require funding from

other tax sources or borrowing.[51]

The present value of these deficits or unfunded obligations is an estimated $45.8 trillion. This is the amount that

would have to be set aside during 2009 such that the principal and interest would pay for the unfunded commitments

through 2084. Approximately $7.7 trillion relates to Social Security, while $38.2 trillion relates to Medicare andMedicaid. In other words, health care programs are nearly five times as serious a funding challenge as Social
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Thomas_Friedmanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Government_Accountability_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Robert_Kiyosakihttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ross_Perothttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Laurence_Kotlikoffhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Medicaidhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Medicare_%28United_States%29http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Social_Security_debate_%28United_States%29http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=U.S._Treasury_Departmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=U.S._Treasury_Departmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Office_of_Management_and_Budgethttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Congressional_Budget_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Government_Accountability_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Government_Accountability_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GAO_Slide.png


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Security. Adding this to the national debt and other federal commitments brings the total obligations to nearly $62

trillion.[62]

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has indicated that: "Future growth in spending per beneficiary for Medicare

and Medicaidthe federal governments major health care programswill be the most important determinant of

long-term trends in federal spending. Changing those programs in ways that reduce the growth of costswhich will

be difficult, in part because of the complexity of health policy choices

is ultimately the nations central long-term

challenge in setting federal fiscal policy."[63]

Recent additions to the public debt of the United States

Deficit and debt increases 2001-2009.

Recent additions to U.S. public debt

Fiscal year (begins

10/01 of prev. year)

Value % of GDP

2001 $144.5 billion 1.4%

2002 $409.5 billion 3.9%

2003 $589.0 billion 5.5%

2004 $605.0 billion 5.3%

2005 $523.0 billion 4.3%

2006 $536.5 billion 4.1%

2007 $459.5 billion 3.4%

2008 $1017.0 billion (proj.) 7.4%

There is a significant difference between the reported budget deficit and the change in debt. The key differences are:

1) The Social Security surplus, which reduces the "off-budget" deficit often reported in the media; and 2)

Non-budgeted spending, such as for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The debt increased by approximately $550

billion on average each year during the 2003-2007 period, but then increased over $1 trillion during FY 2008.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=GDPhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Deficits_vs._Debt_Increases_-_2009.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Congressional_Budget_Office


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The cumulative debt of the United States in the past 8 completed fiscal years was approximately $4.3 trillion, or

about 43% of the total national debt of ~$10.0 trillion as of September 2008.[64]

[65]

Interest expense

Components of interest on the debt.

Budgeted net interest on the public

debt was approximately $240 billion infiscal years 2007 and 2008. This

represented approximately 9.5% of

government spending. Interest was the

fourth largest single budgeted

disbursement category, after defense,

Social Security, and Medicare.[66]

Despite higher debt levels, this

declined to $189 billion in 2009 or

approximately 5% of spending, due to

lower interest rates. Average interest

rates declined due to the crisis from

1.6% in 2008 to 0.3% in 2009.[67]

During FY2008, the government also

accrued a non-cash interest expense of

$212 billion for intra-governmental

debt, primarily the Social Security Trust Fund, for a total interest expense of $454 billion.[68]

This accrued interest is

added to the Social Security Trust Fund and therefore the national debt each year and will be paid to Social Security

recipients in the future.

Public debt owned by foreigners has increased to approximately 50% of the total or approximately $3.4 trillion.[69]

As a result, nearly 50% of the interest payments are now leaving the country, which is different from past years

when interest was paid to U.S. citizens holding the public debt. Interest expenses are projected to grow dramatically

as the U.S. debt increases and interest rates rise from very low levels in 2009 to more typical historical levels. CBO

estimates that nearly half of the debt increases over the 2009-2019 period will be due to interest.[70]

Should interest rates return to historical averages, the interest cost would increase dramatically. Historian Niall

Ferguson described the risk that foreign investors would demand higher interest rates as the U.S. debt levels increase

over time in a November 2009 interview.[71]
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Niall_Fergusonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Niall_Fergusonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Interest_-_Stacked_bar_chart_2006_-_2007.png


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Debt clocks

The NYC debt clock in late 2009.

In several cities around the United States, there are national debt

clockselectronic billboards that illustrate government debt.

Some also attempt to show the money owed per capita or per

family. There is a significant level of fluctuation day-to-day, both

up and down, so any "clocks" must be continually re-set with

proper values.

The first and most famous debt clock, the National Debt Clock

located near Times Square in New York City, was created by real

estate investor Seymour Durst.[72]

[73]

With Seymour's death, his

son Douglas Durst took over responsibility for the clock through

the Durst Organization.

Although the total debt continued to increase, the clock was

deactivated in 2000 when the public debt began to decrease due to

budget surpluses.[74] However, following large increases in thedebt (total and public) a few years later, the clock was reactivated

in July 2002.[75]

In 2004, the original clock was unmounted from its location near

42nd Street; the building has since made way for One Bryant Park.

An updated model, which could run backwards, was installed one block away on a Durst building at 1133 Avenue of

the Americas. Since September 30, 2008, when the debt surpassed $10 trillion, the clock's dollar sign has been

replaced by the extra digit. An upgrade adding to the digits had been announced for 2009, but so far has not been

undertaken.

Calculating and projecting the debt

2010 Budget: Projected deficits and debt increases in President

Obama's 2010 Budget.

Tracking current levels of debt is a cumbersome but

rather straightforward process. Making future

projections is much more difficult for a number of

reasons. For example, before the September 11, 2001

attacks, the George W. Bush administration projected

in the 2002 budget that there would be a $1.288 trillion

surplus from 2001 through 2004.[76]

In the 2005 Mid-Session Review, however, this hadchanged to a projected deficit of $850 billion, a swing

of $2.138 trillion.[77]

The latter document states that 49

percent of this swing was due to "economic and

technical re-estimates", 29 percent was due to "tax

relief", (mainly the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts), and

the remaining 22 percent was due to "war, homeland,

and other enacted legislation" (mainly expenditures for the War on Terror, Iraq War, and homeland security).
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Homeland_securityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Iraq_Warhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=War_on_Terrorhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Jobs_and_Growth_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2003http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2001http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=George_W._Bush_administrationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=September_11%2C_2001_attackshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=September_11%2C_2001_attackshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:2010_Budget_-_Deficit_and_Debt_Increases.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=One_Bryant_Parkhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=42nd_Street_%28Manhattan%29http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Seymour_Dursthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=New_York_Cityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Times_Squarehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=National_Debt_Clockhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:US_Debt_Clock_15-09-2009.JPGhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=National_Debt_Clock


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2010 Budget: Total Debt $ and % to GDP.

Projections between different groups will sometimes

differ because they make different assumptions. For

example, in August 2003, a Congressional Budget

Office report projected a $1.4 trillion deficit from 2004

through 2013.[78]

However, a mid-term and long-term joint analysis a

month later by the Center on Budget and Policy

Priorities, the Committee for Economic Development,

and the Concord Coalition stated that "In projecting

deficits, CBO follows mechanical 'baseline' rules that

do not allow it to account for the costs of any

prospective tax or entitlement legislation, no matter

how likely the enactment of such legislation may be."

The analysis added in a proposed tax cut extension and

Alternative Minimum Tax reform (enacted by a 2005 act), prescription drug plan (Medicare Part D, enacted in a

2003 act), and further increases in defense, homeland security, international, and domestic spending. According to

the report, this "adjusts CBO's official ten-year projections for more realistic assumptions about the costs of budget

policies", raising the projected deficit from $1.4 trillion to $5 trillion.[79]

The 2010 Budget proposed by President Barack Obama projects significant debt increases, both in terms of dollars

and relative to GDP.[80]

[81]

The debt is projected to nearly double to $20 trillion by 2015, but is expected to increase

to nearly 100% of GDP by 2020 and remain at that level thereafter. These estimates assume real GDP growth (after

inflation) ranging from 2.6% to 4.6% annually from 2010 through 2019, which exceeds Blue Chip consensus

estimates.[82]

During FY 2008, approximately 76.6% of federal spending was in the following categories: Departments of Health

and Human Services (19.8%), Defense (20.3%) and Veterans Affairs (11.8%); Social Security Administration(18.2%); interest on the public debt (6.6%).

[83]

The Office of Management and Budget forecasts that, by the end of fiscal year 2012, gross federal debt will total

$16.3 trillion. Thus, the debt will equal 101% of gross domestic product, which represents a milestone in the U.S.

economy. Public debt alone, which excludes amounts that the government owes its citizens via various trust funds,

will be 67% of GDP by the end of fiscal 2012.[84]

Monitoring the risks of increasing debt levels

Various financial indicators may provide an early warning that market forces are reacting to an increasing level of

debt. Examples include Treasury security interest rates (yields), Treasury auction results, credit default swap spreads,and TIPS spreads.

Treasury note yields: A rising yield for a security of a given maturity could indicate lower demand for Treasury

bonds among investors, or nervousness about future rates of inflation. The "yield curve" (a graph that relates the

yields of similar securities of different maturities) provides similar information.

Treasury auctions: The ease with which new securities can be sold reflects the demand for them. For example, a

difference between the interest rate that debt trades prior to auction and the yield required to clear the market at

auction is called the "tail." A large auction tail would be a sign of declining interest from the market. The

Treasury also reports the bid-to-cover ratio for each auction, which is the number of market bids received relative

to the number of bids accepted and the ratio of international buyers.

Credit default swap (CDS) spreads: CDS are insurance-like derivative products that offer protection against bond

defaults. CDS spreads essentially measure the current market price of insurance against default. When the market
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Credit_default_swaphttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Gross_domestic_producthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Barack_Obamahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Medicare_Prescription_Drug%2C_Improvement%2C_and_Modernization_Acthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Medicare_Part_Dhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tax_Increase_Prevention_and_Reconciliation_Act_of_2005http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Alternative_Minimum_Taxhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Concord_Coalitionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Committee_for_Economic_Developmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Center_on_Budget_and_Policy_Prioritieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Center_on_Budget_and_Policy_Prioritieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Congressional_Budget_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Congressional_Budget_Officehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Debt_and_Debt_%_to_GDP_-_2010_Budget.png


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perceives a bond is at an increased risk of default, the CDS written on those bonds will increase in price.

TIPS spreads: A key measure of inflation expectations among U.S. bond market investors is the difference

between the yield on nominal Treasury bonds and the yield for Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS.

This difference is a gauge of investors beliefs about future U.S. inflation rates. A growing spread between

nominal Treasuries and TIPS would indicate that investors are concerned that U.S. fiscal and monetary policy

could lead to higher inflation in the future.[85]

Debate regarding a "danger level" of debt

Economists debate the level of debt relative to GDP that signals a "red line" or dangerous level, or if any such level

exists. Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart reported in January 2010 that 90% of GDP represents this

danger level.[86]

Reinhart testified to the U.S. Senate in February 2010, stating:[87]

Our main finding is that across both advanced countries and emerging markets, high debt/GDP levels

(90 percent and above) are associated with notably lower growth outcomes. Above 90 percent, median

growth rates fall one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. In addition, for emerging

markets, there appears to be a more stringent threshold for total external debt/GDP; when external debt

reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent and for higher levels, growth

rates are roughly cut in half. Seldom do countries simply 'grow' their way out of deep debt burdens.

Economist Paul Krugman disputed the existence of a solid debt threshold or danger level, arguing that low growth

causes high debt rather than the other way around.[88]

He also points out that in Europe, Japan, and the US this has

been the case. In the US the only period of debt over 90% of GDP was after World War II when "when real GDP

was falling, not because of debt problems, but because wartime mobilization was winding down and Rosie the

Riveter was becoming a suburban housewife."[89]

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated in April 2010:[90]

Neither experience nor economic theory clearly indicates the threshold at which government debt begins

to endanger prosperity and economic stability. But given the significant costs and risks associated with a

rapidly rising federal debt, our nation should soon put in place a credible plan for reducing deficits tosustainable levels over time.

There is also a second debate regarding whether debt held by the public (a lower amount) or gross debt (a larger

amount) is the appropriate measure to use in evaluating the debt burden, measured as a percent of GDP. Krugman

argued in May 2010 that the debt held by the public is the right measure to use, while Reinhart has testified to the

President's Fiscal Reform Commission that gross debt is the right figure. Certain members of the Commission are

focusing on gross debt.[88]

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) cited research by several economists

supporting the use of the lower debt held by the public figure as a more accurate measure of the debt burden,

disagreeing with these Commission members.[91]

This second debate relates to the economic nature of the intragovernmental debt that represents the difference

between the two debt figures. As of April 30, 2010 the public debt was $8.4 trillion (59% GDP) and the gross debt

was $12.9 trillion (90% of GDP), using a $14.3 trillion GDP estimate. The difference is the $4.5 trillion

intra-governmental debt, mainly represented by the Social Security Trust Fund.[92]

For example, the CBPP argues:[91]

Debt held by the public is important because it reflects the extent to which the government goes into

private credit markets to borrow. Such borrowing draws on private national saving and international

saving, and therefore competes with investment in the nongovernmental sector (for factories and

equipment, research and development, housing, and so forth). Large increases in such borrowing can

also push up interest rates and increase the amount of future interest payments the federal government

must make to lenders outside of the United States, which reduces Americans

income. By contrast,intragovernmental debt (the other component of the gross debt) has no such effects because it is simply
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Center_on_Budget_and_Policy_Prioritieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ben_Bernankehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Paul_Krugmanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Carmen_Reinharthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kenneth_Rogoff


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money the federal government owes (and pays interest on) to itself.

Current projections indicate the lower debt held by the public figure will hit 90% of GDP by 2020.[93]

See also

US topics:

History of the U.S. public debt - a table containing historical debt data

US total cumulative debt per person

National debt by U.S. presidential terms

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 - part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program

United States federal budget - analysis of federal budget spending and long-term risks

Economy of the United States - discusses U.S. national debt and economic context

General:

Public debt - a general discussion of the topic

Balance of payments

Budget deficit Deficit

Inflation

Securities

National bankruptcy

Fiat currency

International:

Global debt

List of public debt - list of the public debt for many nations, as a percentage of the GDP

References

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28/35


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[80] 2010 Budget (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/fy10-newera.pdf)

[81] Washington Post-Montgomery-Battle Lines Quickly Set Over Planned Policy Shifts (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/

article/2009/02/28/AR2009022801960.html?hpid=topnews)

[82] 2010 Budget-Schedules S13 and S14 (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/index.html)

[83] Chart 4 in A citizen's Guide to the Financial Report of the U.S. Government (http://www.gao.gov/financial/citizensguide2008.pdf),

General Accounting Office.

[84] http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/mar/26/john-boehner/boehner-says-federal-debt-will-equal-gdp-two-years/

[85] U.S. House of Representatives-Republican Caucus-The Perils of Rising Government Debt-May 2010 (http://house.gov/

budget_republicans/press/2007/debtthreat27may2010.pdf)

[86] NBER Digest-Growth in a Time of Debt-Reinhart and Rogoff-May 2010 (http://www.nber.org/digest/apr10/w15639.html)

[87] Reinhart Testimony to Senate-February 2010 (http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/testimony/2010/SBC_Reinhart__February_9.pdf)

[88] Paul Krugman-Bad Analysis at the Deficit Commission-The Conscience of a Liberal Blog-May 2010 (http://krugman.blogs. nytimes. com/

2010/05/27/bad-analysis-at-the-deficit-commission/)

[89] (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/12/debt-and-transfiguration/)[90] Speech before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform-April 2010 (http://www. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/

speech/bernanke20100427a.htm)

[91] Center on Budget and Policy Priorities-Recommendation That Presidents Fiscal Commission Focus on Gross Debt Is Misguided-May 2010

(http://www. cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3197)

[92] Treasury Direct-Monthly Statement of Public Debt of the United States (http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/mspd/2010/

opds042010.pdf)

[93] The Fiscal Times-Alarming Gross Debt Sparks Fiscal Commission Debate-May 27, 2010 (http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Issues/

Budget-Impact/2010/05/27/Alarming-Gross-Debt-Sparks-Fiscal-Commission-Debate)

Wright, Robert (2008). One Nation Under Debt: Hamilton, Jefferson, and the History of What We Owe. Mc-Graw

Hill. ISBN 0071543937.Argues that America completely paid off its first national debt but is unlikely to do so

again.

Bonner, William; Wiggin, Addison (2006).Empire of Debt: the Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis. Wiley.

ISBN 047178253X. Argues that America is a world empire that uses credit in lieu of tribute and that history
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