federal housing funding and policy historic shifts are underway
DESCRIPTION
Federal Housing Funding and Policy Historic Shifts are Underway. What Precipitated the Shifts that are Underway. Economic Crash 2008-2012 Housing Bubble Bursts – Massive Federal and Private Losses in Housing Federal Budget Trajectory Toxic Politics. What ’ s in Flux?. Budget FY14 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Federal Housing Funding and Policy
Historic Shifts are Underway
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What Precipitated the Shifts that
are Underway• Economic Crash 2008-2012• Housing Bubble Bursts – Massive
Federal and Private Losses in Housing
• Federal Budget Trajectory• Toxic Politics
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What’s in Flux? • Budget– FY14– Sequester– CR / Debt Ceiling
• Tax Reform• CRA• Fair Housing• Mortgage Finance
– GSE Reform– Dodd-Frank
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Federal Budget Trends
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Federal Budget Trends
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Federal Budget Trends
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Federal Budget Trends
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Vouchers
• Renewals – FY10-FY13 …but Costs • New Vouchers are Rare (HUD-VASH)• Few Existing Voucher Holders have lost
their Homes…Yet• PHAs are Struggling with Admin Cuts (-17%)• Very Difficult to serve Populations <50%
AMI • Homelessness Successes at Risk
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Vouchers: Virginia PHA Survey
• 7% avg reduction in voucher funding in 2013
• 765 housing vouchers expected to be cut across the 9 PHAs / local governments responding
• 14.5% average reduction in admin fees
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Project Based Section 8
• Project Based Renewals – HUD Strategy to “short fund”
• Impact on Investor / Lender Confidence • RA (rural) – New RA but declining• Very Difficult to serve Populations below
50% AMI • Homelessness Successes at Risk
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HOME and CDBG
• Block Grants more Vulnerable than S/8• HOME (50% cut since FY10) – WAPO story• Losses here Ripple through AH • GAP Funding• Project Infrastructure• Rehab
• Virginia has lost $20m in CDBG (29%) and $18m in HOME since FY10
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Public Housing
• PH Capital - $2.5b to $1.77b• PH Operating - $4.78 to $4.05• RAD – transition of PH to S8• 70,000 unit cap will be met this year
• Choice Communities• 4-5 awards per year
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Rural Housing
• 515 Rental Production Slashed 60%• RA Cuts less Steep / Renewals at Risk• 502 Direct down 20%• Administration Favors 538, 502
Guarantee• Budget Neutral
• Politics Counts !
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Sequester : the Train has left the
Station?
• Budget Control Act of 2011– $1.2 Trillion in Savings 2013-2021– FY 13 was 5.1% across the board (defense
to take 50% of the cuts)– Delay meant actual cuts to Housing of 7+
%– Will continue until 2021 unless changed
in a CR or otherwise re-legislated in budget bill
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CR/ Debt Ceiling: A Train Wreck here / on the Way ?• September 30 – CR• Sept/Oct – Debt Ceiling• Syria has used up a lot of space • De-funding Obamacare added to the
House CR – sent to Senate • Likely Outcome: CR with Sequester?
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Tax Reform: Possible? • The Sky is
Falling! …or is it?• Baucus / Hatch in
Senate • @Simpler Taxes • Dave Camp in
House• Complacency is
HIGH RISK – 1986
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Tax Reform: Possible?
• What is at risk ? LIHTC, NMTC
• Bill in Oct ? – will not include LIHTCs
• 2.5 million affordable homes
• Momentum… 2014 ?
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Community Reinvestment Act • Q & A Revisions• Comments
deadline in May• Recognizes
Changes in Banking regarding:– Proximity of
Depositors– Proximity of Loan
Recipients
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Community Reinvestment Act • What the “local
community” means• May recognize the
value of CD activities outside assessment area
• Regional/statewide /national investments may meet goals
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New Fair Housing Guidance
•Clarity / Simpler Template for Analysis of Impediments •Focus on concentrated poverty / “communities of opportunity” •Strategies must either move people to COO or Transform into COO •What is the Impact?
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Mortgage Finance Reform
•What should be the role of the federal government in our national housing finance system?
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Mortgage Finance Reform
• GSE Reform: Source of Mortgage Capital
• Dodd-Frank – Underwriting Guidelines
• FHA – Meeting LMI housing needs
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GSE Reform
•Warner – Corker•Wind Down Fannie and Freddie•Replace with a Smaller FMIC•Common Securitization Platform•Competitive System (10 or more guarantors
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GSE Reform
•Warner / Corker - S1217•Wind Down Fannie and Freddie•Replace with a Smaller FMIC•Common Securitization Platform•Competitive System (10 or more guarantors
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GSE Reform
•Preserve Access to Capital even during Economic Downturns
•All geographies•All housing types
•SF Mortgages – 30 year / fixed•Rental – esp. Smaller, Rural •Implications for future
•Rate•Terms•Fees
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GSE Reform - NHTF
• …the Corporation shall— charge and collect a fee in an amount equal to not less than 5 basis points and not more than 10 basis points for each dollar of the outstanding principal balance of eligible mortgages … and allocate … 80 percent of such fee amounts to the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development to fund the Housing Trust Fund
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GSE Reform
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GSE Reform
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Dodd-Frank: QM & QRM Re-Shaping SF Underwriting
• Qualified Mortgage “safe harbors”– Eight “factors” – ability to pay– Back end ratio of 43%– Generally balloon loans are
discouraged w/exceptions for rural – Credit history
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Dodd-Frank: QM & QRM Re-Shaping SF Underwriting
• Qualified Residential Mortgage – Risk Sharing–Down payment– Current rule backs off 20% DP but
leaves the door open– Comments until Oct. 30
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May You Live in Interesting Times
寧為太平犬不做亂世人Better to be a dog in peaceful times than a man in chaotic times.