7/27/2019 Federation_of_American_S___trating_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf

1/6

+RPH!3URJUDPV!6WUDWHJLF6HFXULW\!1XFOHDU,QIRUPDWLRQ3URMHFW!1HZ1XFOHDU:HDSRQV

)$63XEOLF,QWHUHVW5HSRUW/RZ

7/27/2019 Federation_of_American_S___trating_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf

2/6

:KDWVQHHGHGQRZLVVRPHWKLQJWKDWFDQWKUHDWHQDEXQNHUWXQQHOHGXQGHUPHWHUVRIJUDQLWHZLWKRXWNLOOLQJWKH

VXUURXQGLQJFLYLOLDQSRSXODWLRQ

6WDWHPHQWVOLNHWKHVHSURPRWHWKHLOOXVLRQWKDWQXFOHDUZHDSRQVFRXOGEHXVHGLQZD\VZKLFKPLQLPL]HWKHLUFROODWHUDO

GDPDJHPDNLQJWKHPDFFHSWDEOHWRROVWREHXVHGOLNHFRQYHQWLRQDOZHDSRQV

$VGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOEHORZKRZHYHUWKHXVHRIDQ\QXFOHDUZHDSRQFDSDEOHRIGHVWUR\LQJDEXULHGWDUJHWWKDWLVRWKHUZLVH

LPPXQHWRFRQYHQWLRQDODWWDFNZLOOQHFHVVDULO\SURGXFHHQRUPRXVQXPEHUVRIFLYLOLDQFDVXDOWLHV1RHDUWKEXUURZLQJPLVVLOH

FDQSHQHWUDWHGHHSHQRXJKLQWRWKHHDUWKWRFRQWDLQDQH[SORVLRQZLWKDQXFOHDU\LHOGHYHQDVVPDOODVSHUFHQWRIWKH

NLORWRQ+LURVKLPDZHDSRQ7KHH[SORVLRQVLPSO\EORZVRXWDPDVVLYHFUDWHURIUDGLRDFWLYHGLUWZKLFKUDLQVGRZQRQWKHORFDO

UHJLRQZLWKDQHVSHFLDOO\LQWHQVHDQGGHDGO\IDOORXW

0RUHRYHUDV&RQJUHVVXQGHUVWRRGLQE\VHHNLQJWRSURGXFHXVDEOHORZ\LHOGQXFOHDUZHDSRQVZHULVNEOXUULQJWKH

QRZVKDUSOLQHVHSDUDWLQJQXFOHDUDQGFRQYHQWLRQDOZDUIDUHDQGSURYLGHOHJLWLPDF\IRURWKHUQDWLRQVWRVLPLODUO\FRQVLGHU

XVLQJQXFOHDUZHDSRQVLQUHJLRQDOZDUV

&RQYHQWLRQDO(DUWK3HQHWUDWLQJ:HDSRQV

)LJ7KH3HQWDJRQKDVDJURZLQJFROOHFWLRQRI

KLJKSUHFLVLRQFRQYHQWLRQDOZHDSRQVFDSDEOHRI

GHIHDWLQJKDUGHQHGWDUJHWV,QWKLVVOHGGULYHQ

WHVWWKH*%8ODVHUJXLGHGERPEZLWKLWV

LPSURYHG%/8ZDUKHDGSHQHWUDWHVVHYHUDO

PHWHUVRIUHLQIRUFHGFRQFUHWH

)LJ$%ERPEHUUHOHDVHVDQXQDUPHG%

HDUWKSHQHWUDWLQJERPEGXULQJWHVWVLQ$ODVND

'HVSLWHIDOOLQJIURPDQDOWLWXGHRIIHHWWKLV

ERPEEXUURZHGRQO\DSSUR[LPDWHO\IHHWLQWR

WKHVRLO$Q\QXFOHDUEODVWDWWKLVVKDOORZGHSWK

ZRXOGQRWEHFRQWDLQHGDQGZRXOGSURGXFH

LQWHQVHORFDOIDOORXW

9LGHRFOLSVIURP&110%DQG/RFNKHHG0DUWLQ0%

7KH3HQWDJRQDOUHDG\KDVDQXPEHURIFRQYHQWLRQDOZHDSRQVFDSDEOHRIGHVWUR\LQJKDUGHQHGWDUJHWVEXULHGZLWKLQ

DSSUR[LPDWHO\IHHWRIWKHVXUIDFH7KHPRVWZHOONQRZQRIWKHVHLVWKH*%8GHYHORSHGDQGGHSOR\HGLQWKHILQDOZHHNV

RIWKHDLUFDPSDLJQLQWKH*XOI:DU7KH$LU)RUFHZDVLQLWLDOO\XQDEOHWRGHVWUR\DZHOOSURWHFWHGEXQNHUQRUWKRI%DJKGDG

DIWHUUHSHDWHGGLUHFWKLWV7KHOE*%8ZDVFUHDWHGIURPDYHU\KHDY\VXUSOXV$UP\HLJKWLQFKJXQWXEHILOOHGZLWK

FRQYHQWLRQDOH[SORVLYHDQGDPRGLILHGODVHUJXLGDQFHNLW,WGHVWUR\HGWKHEXQNHUZKLFKZDVSURWHFWHGE\PRUHWKDQIHHW

RIHDUWKFRQFUHWHDQGKDUGHQHGVWHHO

7KHSUHFLVLRQSHQHWUDWLQJFDSDELOLW\DQGH[SORVLYHSRZHURIWKHVHFRQYHQWLRQDOZHDSRQVKDVLPSURYHGGUDPDWLFDOO\RYHU

WKHODVWGHFDGHDQGWKHVHWUHQGVZLOOFHUWDLQO\FRQWLQXH,QGHHGWKH*%8JXLGHGERPEDVXFFHVVRUWRWKH*%8LVDOUHDG\WKRXJKWWREHFDSDEOHRIGLVDEOLQJDVLOREDVHG,&%0DWDUJHWIRUPHUO\WKRXJKWYXOQHUDEOHRQO\WRQXFOHDUDWWDFN,Q

WKHQHDUIXWXUHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZLOOGHSOR\QHZFODVVHVRIKDUGWDUJHWSHQHWUDWRUVZKLFKFDQODQGZLWKLQRQHWRWZRPHWHUV

RIWKHLUWDUJHWV

7/27/2019 Federation_of_American_S___trating_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf

3/6

7KH%1XFOHDU%RPE+RZHYHUPLQLQXNHDGYRFDWHVPRVWO\FRPLQJIURPWKHQXFOHDUZHDSRQVODEVDUJXHWKDWORZ\LHOGQXFOHDUZHDSRQV

VKRXOGEHGHVLJQHGWRGHVWUR\HYHQGHHSHUWDUJHWV

7KH86LQWURGXFHGDQHDUWKSHQHWUDWLQJQXFOHDUZHDSRQLQWKH%E\SXWWLQJWKHQXFOHDUH[SORVLYHIURPDQHDUOLHU

ERPEGHVLJQLQWRDKDUGHQHGVWHHOFDVLQJZLWKDQHZQRVHFRQHWRSURYLGHJURXQGSHQHWUDWLRQFDSDELOLW\7KHGHSOR\PHQW

ZDVFRQWURYHUVLDOEHFDXVHRIRIILFLDO86SROLF\QRWWRGHYHORSQHZQXFOHDUZHDSRQV7KH'2(DQGWKHZHDSRQVODEVKDYH

FRQVLVWHQWO\DUJXHGKRZHYHUWKDWWKH%LVPHUHO\DPRGLILFDWLRQRIDQROGHUGHOLYHU\V\VWHPEHFDXVHLWXVHGDQ

H[LVWLQJSK\VLFVSDFNDJH

7KHHDUWKSHQHWUDWLQJFDSDELOLW\RIWKH%LVIDLUO\OLPLWHGKRZHYHU7HVWVVKRZLWSHQHWUDWHVRQO\IHHWRUVRLQWRGU\

HDUWKZKHQGURSSHGIURPDQDOWLWXGHRIIHHW(YHQVRE\EXU\LQJLWVHOILQWRWKHJURXQGEHIRUHGHWRQDWLRQDPXFK

KLJKHUSURSRUWLRQRIWKHH[SORVLRQHQHUJ\LVWUDQVIHUUHGWRJURXQGVKRFNFRPSDUHGWRDVXUIDFHEXUVWV$Q\DWWHPSWWRXVHLWLQ

DQXUEDQHQYLURQPHQWKRZHYHUZRXOGUHVXOWLQPDVVLYHFLYLOLDQFDVXDOWLHV(YHQDWWKHORZHQGRILWVNLORWRQ\LHOG

UDQJHWKHQXFOHDUEODVWZLOOVLPSO\EORZRXWDKXJHFUDWHURIUDGLRDFWLYHPDWHULDOFUHDWLQJDOHWKDOJDPPDUDGLDWLRQILHOGRYHU

DODUJHDUHD

&RQWDLQPHQW-XVWKRZGHHSPXVWDQXQGHUJURXQGQXFOHDUH[SORVLRQEHEXULHGLQRUGHUIRUWKHEODVWDQGIDOORXWWREHFRQWDLQHG"

7KH86FRQGXFWHGDVHULHVRIXQGHUJURXQGQXFOHDUH[SORVLRQVLQWKHVWKH3ORZVKDUHWHVWVWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKH

SRVVLEOHXVHRIQXFOHDUH[SORVLYHVIRUH[FDYDWLRQSXUSRVHV7KRVHSHUIRUPHGSULRUWRWKH$WPRVSKHULF7HVW%DQ7UHDW\

VXFKDVWKH6HGDQWHVWVKRZQLQ)LJXUHZHUHEXULHGDWUHODWLYHO\VKDOORZGHSWKVWRPD[LPL]HWKHVL]HRIWKHFUDWHU

SURGXFHG

)LJ7KH.76HGDQQXFOHDUH[SORVLRQRQHRIWKH3ORZVKDUHVH[FDYDWLRQWHVWVZDVEXULHGDWD

GHSWKRIIHHW7KHPDLQFORXGDQGEDVHVXUJHDUHW\SLFDORIVKDOORZEXULHGQXFOHDUH[SORVLRQV

7KHFORXGLVKLJKO\FRQWDPLQDWHGZLWKUDGLRDFWLYHGXVWSDUWLFOHVDQGSURGXFHVDQLQWHQVHORFDOIDOORXW

,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHLPPHGLDWHHIIHFWVRIEODVWDLUVKRFNDQGWKHUPDOUDGLDWLRQVKDOORZQXFOHDUH[SORVLRQVSURGXFHHVSHFLDOO\

LQWHQVHORFDOUDGLRDFWLYHIDOORXW7KHILUHEDOOEUHDNVWKURXJKWKHVXUIDFHRIWKHHDUWKFDUU\LQJLQWRWKHDLUODUJHDPRXQWVRIGLUW

DQGGHEULV7KLVPDWHULDOKDVEHHQH[SRVHGWRWKHLQWHQVHQHXWURQIOX[IURPWKHQXFOHDUGHWRQDWLRQZKLFKDGGVWRWKHUDGLRDFWLYLW\IURPWKHILVVLRQSURGXFWV7KHFORXGW\SLFDOO\FRQVLVWVRIDQDUURZFROXPQDQGDEURDGEDVHVXUJHRIDLUILOOHGZLWK

UDGLRDFWLYHGXVWZKLFKH[SDQGVWRDUDGLXVRIRYHUDPLOHIRUDNLORWRQH[SORVLRQ,QWKH3ORZVKDUHWHVWVURXJKO\SHUFHQW

RIWKHWRWDOUDGLRDFWLYLW\SURGXFHGLQWKHH[SORVLRQZDVGLVWULEXWHGDVORFDOIDOORXWWKHRWKHUKDOIEHLQJFRQILQHGWRWKHKLJKO\

UDGLRDFWLYHFUDWHU

7/27/2019 Federation_of_American_S___trating_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf

4/6

,QRUGHUWREHIXOO\FRQWDLQHGQXFOHDUH[SORVLRQVDWWKH1HYDGD7HVW6LWHPXVWEHEXULHGDWDGHSWKRIIHHWIRUDNLORWRQ

H[SORVLYHIHHWIRUDNLORWRQH[SORVLYH(YHQWKHQWKHUHDUHPDQ\GRFXPHQWHGFDVHVZKHUHFDUHIXOO\VHDOHG

VKDIWVUXSWXUHGDQGUHOHDVHGUDGLRDFWLYLW\WRWKHORFDOHQYLURQPHQW

7KHUHIRUHHYHQLIDQHDUWKSHQHWUDWLQJPLVVLOHZHUHVRPHKRZDEOHWRGULOOKXQGUHGVRIIHHWLQWRWKHJURXQGDQGWKHQGHWRQDWH

WKHH[SORVLRQZRXOGOLNHO\VKRZHUWKHVXUURXQGLQJUHJLRQZLWKKLJKO\UDGLRDFWLYHGXVWDQGJDV

/RQJ5RG3HQHWUDWLRQ

)LJ8QGHUJURXQGQXFOHDUWHVWVPXVWEHEXULHGDWODUJHGHSWKVDQGFDUHIXOO\VHDOHGLQRUGHUWRIXOO\

FRQWDLQWKHH[SORVLRQ6KDOORZHUEXUVWVSURGXFHODUJHFUDWHUVDQGLQWHQVHORFDOIDOORXW7KHVLWXDWLRQ

VKRZQKHUHLVIRUDQH[SORVLRQZLWKD.7\LHOGDQGWKHGHSWKVVKRZQDUHLQIHHW(YHQD.7EXUVW

PXVWEHEXULHGDWDGHSWKRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\IHHWWREHIXOO\FRQWDLQHG$GDSWHGIURP7HUU\:DOODFH

ZLWKSHUPLVVLRQ

,WLVVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGWRVKRZKRZHYHUWKDWWKHPD[LPXPSHQHWUDWLRQGHSWKLVVHYHUHO\OLPLWHGLIWKHPLVVLOHFDVLQJLVWRUHPDLQ

LQWDFW2QHFDQPDNHUHDVRQDEO\DFFXUDWHHVWLPDWHVRIWKHSHQHWUDWLRQGHSWKEDVHGRQWKHZHOOGHYHORSHGWKHRU\RIORQJURG

SHQHWUDWLRQ7KHIXQGDPHQWDOSDUDPHWHU5LVWKHUDWLRRIWKHSURMHFWLOHUDPSUHVVXUHWRWKH\LHOGVWUHQJWKRIWKHPDWHULDO 7KH

WDUJHWPDWHULDO\LHOGVDQGSHQHWUDWLRQRFFXUVZKHQ5LVJUHDWHUWKDQRQH)RUDVWHHOURGWRSHQHWUDWHFRQFUHWHWKHPLQLPXP

YHORFLWLHVIRUSHQHWUDWLRQLVDERXWRQHKDOIDNLORPHWHUSHUVHFRQGPLOHVSHUKRXU)RUGXFWLOHPDWHULDOVWKHNLQHWLF

HQHUJ\ORVWIURPWKHSHQHWUDWRUFDQGHIRUPWKHWDUJHWDQGGLJRXWDSHQHWUDWLRQFUDWHU

)XQGDPHQWDOO\KRZHYHUWKHGHSWKRISHQHWUDWLRQLVOLPLWHGE\WKH\LHOGVWUHQJWKRIWKHSHQHWUDWRULQWKLVFDVHWKHPLVVLOH

FDVLQJ(YHQIRUWKHVWURQJHVWPDWHULDOVLPSDFWYHORFLWLHVJUHDWHUWKDQDIHZNLORPHWHUVSHUVHFRQGZLOOVXEVWDQWLDOO\GHIRUP

DQGHYHQPHOWWKHLPSDFWRU

$QHDUWKSHQHWUDWLQJQXFOHDUZHDSRQPXVWSURWHFWWKHZDUKHDGDQGLWVDVVRFLDWHGHOHFWURQLFVZKLOHLWEXUURZVLQWRWKHJURXQG7KLVVHYHUHO\OLPLWVWKHPLVVLOHWRLPSDFWYHORFLWLHVRIOHVVWKDQDERXWWKUHHNLORPHWHUVSHUVHFRQGIRUPLVVLOHFDVHV

PDGHIURPWKHYHU\KDUGHVWVWHHOV)URPWKHWKHRU\RIORQJURGSHQHWUDWLRQLQWKLVOLPLWWKHPD[LPXPSRVVLEOHGHSWK 'RI

SHQHWUDWLRQLVSURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHOHQJWKDQGGHQVLW\RIWKHSHQHWUDWRUDQGLQYHUVHO\SURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHGHQVLW\RIWKHWDUJHW

7KHPD[LPXPGHSWKRISHQHWUDWLRQGHSHQGVRQO\ZHDNO\RQWKH\LHOGVWUHQJWKRIWKHSHQHWUDWRU)RUW\SLFDOYDOXHVIRUVWHHO

7/27/2019 Federation_of_American_S___trating_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf

5/6

DQGFRQFUHWHZHH[SHFWDQXSSHUERXQGWRWKHSHQHWUDWLRQGHSWKWREHURXJKO\WLPHVWKHPLVVLOHOHQJWKRUDERXWIHHW

IRUDIRRWPLVVLOH,QDFWXDOSUDFWLFHWKHLPSDFWYHORFLW\DQGSHQHWUDWLRQGHSWKPXVWEHZHOOEHORZWKLVWRHQVXUHWKHPLVVLOH

DQGLWVFRQWHQWVDUHQRWVHYHUHO\GDPDJHG

*LYHQWKHVHFRQVWUDLQWVLWLVVLPSO\QRWSRVVLEOHIRUDNLQHWLFHQHUJ\ZHDSRQWRSHQHWUDWHGHHSO\HQRXJKLQWRWKHHDUWKWR

FRQWDLQDQXFOHDUH[SORVLRQ

7KH:HDSRQV/DEVDQGWKH&7%77KHPRVWYRFDOSURSRQHQWVRIQHZVPDOO\LHOGZHDSRQVFRPHIURPWKHQDWLRQVQXFOHDUZHDSRQVODERUDWRULHVDW/RV$ODPRV

DQG/LYHUPRUH

,QD6WUDWHJLF$IIDLUVDUWLFOHHQWLWOHG&RXQWHULQJWKH7KUHDWRIWKH:HOODUPHG7\UDQW/RV$ODPRVZHDSRQVDQDO\VWV

7KRPDV'RZOHUDQG-RVHSK+RZDUG,,DUJXHGWKDWWKH86KDVQRSURSRUWLRQDWHUHVSRQVHWRDURJXHGLFWDWRUZKRXVHV

FKHPLFDORUELRORJLFDOZHDSRQVDJDLQVW86WURRSV2XUVPDOOHVWQXFOHDUZHDSRQVWKRVHZLWK+LURVKLPDVL]H\LHOGV

ZRXOGEHVRGHYDVWDWLQJWKDWQR86SUHVLGHQWFRXOGXVHWKHP:HZRXOGEHVHOIGHWHUUHG7RFRXQWHUWKLVGLOHPPDWKH\

DUJXHGWKH86VKRXOGGHYHORSPLQLQXNHVZLWK\LHOGVHTXLYDOHQWWR.7QXFOHDUZHDSRQVZLWKYHU\ORZ\LHOGV

FRXOGSURYLGHDQHIIHFWLYHUHVSRQVHIRUFRXQWHULQJWKHHQHP\LQVXFKDFULVLVZKLOHQRWYLRODWLQJWKHSULQFLSOHRI

SURSRUWLRQDOLW\

0RUHUHFHQWO\LQDVSHHFKWRWKH1XFOHDU6HFXULW\'HFLVLRQPDNHUV)RUXP6DQGLD/DERUDWRU\'LUHFWRU3DXO5RELQVRQVWDWHG

7KH86ZLOOXQGRXEWHGO\UHTXLUHDQHZQXFOHDUZHDSRQEHFDXVHLWLVUHDOL]HGWKDWWKH\LHOGVRIWKHZHDSRQVOHIWRYHUIURP

WKH&ROG:DUDUHWRRKLJKIRUDGGUHVVLQJWKHGHWHUUHQFHUHTXLUHPHQWVRIDPXOWLSRODUZLGHO\SUROLIHUDWHGZRUOG:LWKRXW

UHFWLI\LQJWKDWVLWXDWLRQZHZRXOGHQGXSEHLQJVHOIGHWHUUHG

$PRUHF\QLFDOLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHVHVWDWHPHQWVLVWKDWWKHODERUDWRU\VWDIIDQGOHDGHUVKLSVLPSO\IHHOWKUHDWHQHGE\WKH

FXUUHQWUHVWULFWLRQVRQWKHLUDFWLYLWLHVDQGZDQWWRJHQHUDWHDQHZPLVVLRQDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGIXQGLQJWRNHHSWKHPLQ

RSHUDWLRQLQGHILQLWHO\,QGHHGEHJLQQLQJLQZLWKWKHFROODSVHRIWKH6RYLHW8QLRQDQGWKHHQGRIWKH&ROG:DUWKHUHZDV

VHULRXVGLVFXVVLRQRIFORVLQJRQHRIWKHERPEODEV

0RUHRYHU3UHVLGHQW&OLQWRQHQGHG86QXFOHDUWHVWLQJLQDQGVLJQHGWKH&RPSUHKHQVLYH7HVW%DQ7UHDW\&7%7D

SHUPDQHQWZRUOGZLGHEDQRQQXFOHDUWHVWLQJLQ'HVSLWHWKH6HQDWHVIDLOXUHWRUDWLI\WKH&7%7LQLWVSURSRQHQWV

EHOLHYHWKHWUHDW\ZLOOHYHQWXDOO\FRPHLQWRIRUFH7KHPDMRUQXFOHDUSRZHUVFRQWLQXHWRDELGHE\WKHZRUOGPRUDWRULXPRQ

QXFOHDUWHVWLQJDQGHYHQ,QGLDDQG3DNLVWDQDSSHDUWRKDYHMRLQHGWKHPRUDWRULXPDIWHUWKHLU0D\QXFOHDUWHVWV

7KHQXFOHDUZHDSRQVODEVDUHSDUWLFXODUO\WKUHDWHQHGE\WKH&7%7VLQFHLWZLOOSUREDEO\OLPLWWKHPWRPDLQWDLQLQJWKH

VWRFNSLOHRIZHDSRQVDOUHDG\LQRXUDUVHQDO.HHSLQJ\RXQJVFLHQWLVWVLQWHUHVWHGLQWKHZHDSRQVSURJUDPLVHVSHFLDOO\

GLIILFXOWZKHQWKHLUPDLQMRELVWKHUHODWLYHO\PXQGDQHWDVNRIDVVXULQJUHOLDELO LW\7KHODEVGHVLUHWKHFKDOOHQJHRIGHVLJQLQJ

QHZQXFOHDUZHDSRQVVLPSO\IRUWKHVFLHQWLILFDQGWHFKQLFDOWUDLQLQJH[SHULHQFHWKHHIIRUWZRXOGEULQJ+HQFHWKHUHLV

WUHPHQGRXVSUHVVXUHWRFUHDWHDQHZPLVVLRQWKDWMXVWLILHVDQHZGHYHORSPHQWSURJUDP

%XWFRXOGWKH86GHSOR\DQHZORZ\LHOGQXFOHDUHDUWKSHQHWUDWLQJZHDSRQZLWKRXWWHVWLQJLW"8QGHUFRQWLQXHGSROLWLFDO

SUHVVXUHWRVXSSRUWWKH7HVW%DQDQGLWVUHODWHG6WRFNSLOH6WHZDUGVKLS3URJUDP/RV$ODPRV$VVRFLDWH'LUHFWRU6WHYH

7/27/2019 Federation_of_American_S___trating_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf

6/6