feed, food and fuel: competition and potential impacts in small crop-livestock-energy farming...
TRANSCRIPT
Feed, food and fuel: competition and potential impacts in small
crop-livestock-energy farming systems
A Study commissioned by the System-wide Livestock Program
Presented by John Dixon, Xiaoyun Li
on behalf of the task teamSystem-wide Livestock Program Workshop
Addis, Ethiopia 29 April, 2008
An active 9-center task team
CIMMYT: John Dixon, Xiaoyun Li, Judit Szonyi
IFPRI: Siwa Msangi, Betina Dimaranan;
IWMI: Amede Tilahun, Deborah Bossio;
ICRISAT: Belum VS Reddy;
IITA: Robert Abaidoo;
ILRI: Mario Herrero;
IRRI: Jagadish Timsina;
CIP: Charles Crissman, Victor Mares, Robert Quiroz, Carlos
Leon-Velarde;
CIAT: Hernan Ceballos, Michael Peters, Douglas White,
Bernardo Ospina, Reinhardt Howeler
Contents
Background
Study objectives, framework
Preliminary results for feedback
Policy and research priorities
Background: renewable energy investment, 2006
Background: Biofuel production
United States
Brazil China India Total
36% 33% 7.5% 3.7% 80.2%
Bioethanol production
Projected US maize use for bio-ethanol
(doubling 2006-2016)
The study
• Objectives
• International market responses
• Resource and environment dynamics
• Potential impacts on crop-livestock-energy systems
• Policy and research priorities
Analyze the present situation of biofuel production in relation to agriculture in developing countries
Identify and profile typical local crop-livestock-energy farming systems (CLEFS)
Estimate international market responses
Assess the resource and environmental dynamics
Assess the biofuel impact on small crop-livestock systems and households
Identify policy implications and research priorities
Objectives
Schematic pathways from bio-fuel to livestock and livelihood
Bio-fuels
Household livelihood
Crops
Livestock
Market
Environment
FAO dietary energy sources %
Crop-livestock farming systems
Resources, market access
Crop-livestock farming systems Poverty
Crop-livestock farming systemsRuminant and poultry density
Crop-livestock farming systemsCrop production cf livestock
Crop-livestock farming systemsHuman consumption: cereal cf animal products
Preliminary results
International market responses
Resource and environmental dynamics
Potential impacts: crop-livestock-energy
systems and household livelihoods
Policy and research priorities
International market responses
• World crop food and livestock products demand
Crop food Wheat Rice Maize Cassava Sugarcane Sorghum
Year ‘15 ‘30 ‘15 ‘30 ‘15 ‘30 ‘15 ‘30 ‘15 ‘30 ‘15 ‘30
(Million ton) 453 532 381 415 117 133 147 177 144 174 28 36
Livestock
Product
Beef Pork Lamb Poultry Eggs Milk
(Million ton) 76 99 114 131 17 24 93 123 60 69 345 414
International market responses
• Projected demand for feedstock commodities for biofuel at 2020 •(Thousand ton)
Note: *Rest of the world.
Crop Region Baseline Business as
usual
Aggressive
Cassava ROW* 660 6,842 13,684
Europe 97 1,086 2,173
ROW 2,021 20,511 41,023
Maize
USA 35,000 130,000 260,000
Brazil 16 153 306
Europe 1,563 14,572 29,144
ROW 530 4,211 8,423
Oil
Seeds
USA 354 3,017 6,034
Brazil 834 9,014 18,029
ROW 163 1,797 3,595
Sugar
USA 265 3,450 6,900
Europe 1,242 10,703 21,407 Wheat
ROW 205 2,342 4,685
International market responses
• world prices of key feedstock crops
Note: *Rest of the world.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Cassava Maize Oil seeds Sugar Wheat
Biofuel expansion Drastic biofuel expansion
Pri
ce C
ha
ng
es
(%)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections Increase is over the 2020 baseline levels
International market responses• livestock commodity price under biofuel
scenarios,By 2020
Note: *Rest of the world. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500U
S$
per
to
n
2000 Business as usual Aggressive
Resource and environment dynamics
• Biofuels impacts on land, water and greenhouse gases are the three main environment concerns with large scale development of biofuels.
• If all national policies and plans on biofuels are successfully implemented, 30 million additional hectares of crop land will be needed along with 180 km3 of additional irrigation water withdrawals.
• Biofuel impacts on carbon savings and GHGs emission depend on how they are produced.
Some detail: biofuels land and water use
Total cropped area
for biofuels
Total crop ET for
biofuels
total irrigation
withdrawals for biofuels
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030
USA, Canada 4.60% 9.00% 5.10% 11.00% 4.10% 20.00%
EU 1.30% 28.00% 1.50% 17.00% 0.00% 1.00%
China 1.10% 4.00% 1.50% 4.00% 2.20% 7.00%
India 0.20% 1.00% 0.50% 3.00% 1.20% 5.00%
S-Africa n.a. n.a. 2.80% 12.00% 9.80% 30.00%
Brazil 5.00% 7.00% 10.70% 14.00% 3.50% 8.00%
Indonesia 0.10% 0.00% 0.30% 1.00% 3.50% 7.00%
World 0.90% 3.00% 1.40% 3.00% 1.10% 4.00%
Potential crop effects
• Under the different scenarios of biofuel expansion, crop areas and production practices are expected to change, including grain and residue prices, the consumption basket, crop substitutions, land and water use, cultivars selection and field management.
• While maize and sugarcane dominate bioethanol feedstock use at present, some diversification of bioethanol (and biodiesel) feedstocks is expected by 2030.
• Moreover, while there are strong pressures for intensification because of the strong demand for cereals, water and nutrient use efficiency is expected to rise as water and fertilizer prices rise relative to grain prices
Some detail: potential crop effects
An example maize mixed crop-livestock system in SSA
First generation Second generation Impacts
Business-as-usual Aggressive Business-as-usual Aggressive
Maize price Increase Great increase Less increase impact for maize stover
Maize grain consumption
for food Decline Dramatic decline Even Even
for feed No change No change Even Even
for biofuel feedstock increase Dramatic increase Even Even
Maize stover use Fodder, soil fertilizer Fodder, soil fertilizer Competition for biofuel Competition for biofuel
Crop substitutions Other crops to maize Dramatic convertion No change Use marginal land
Crop system change May change Change No change No change
Land and water
provision Tense More tense Alleviate Alleviate
Cultivars selection
Yield, nutrition,
drought and disease
tolerance
High yield and
nutrition, drought
and disease
tolerance
High biomass, nutrition,
drought and disease
tolerance
High biomass, nutrition,
drought and disease
tolerance
Field management fertilizer use, and
residue management
fertilizer use, and
residue management
fertilizer use, and
residue management
fertilizer use, and
residue management
Pressure points on crop-livestock farming systems
Crop competition
Feed and fodder biofuel pressure point Example
countries maize grain roots or stems Crop residues pasture
Farming system
2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030
maize mixed crop-livestock Kenya Major Medium x x Minor Major x x
wheat based crop- livestock Turkey Medium Minor x x Minor Minor x x
sorghum-based crop-livestock India Minor Minor Major Major Minor Minor x x
cassava/ crop-livestock Nigeria x x Major Minor Major Major x x
sugarcane/ crop-livestock Brazil x x Minor Minor Minor Major x Major
oil palm/ crop-livestock Indonesia x x x x x x x x
Cereal-livestock Brazil x x x x x Major x Major
livestock dominant Argentina x x x x x Major x Major
rice-based crop-livestock China Major Minor x x Minor Major x x
rice-based crop-livestock India Major Minor x x Minor Major x x
Impacts on livestock
• By 2015, without crop yield growth an increase in grain prices leads to a reduction in feedgrains -- with greater impacts in more the more intensive crop-livestock systems (e.g., dairy)
• By 2030, with widespread second generation biofuel production, the focus of competition shifts to biomass – and impacts depend on the cost of harvesting biomass for bioethanol, i.e., economics of bioethanol vs economics of ruminant production. The aggregate effect is likely to be reduction in biomass availability for ruminant fodder.
• In densely populated systems which lack alternative fodder resources, a reduction in ruminant production is expected or a (further) shift to intensive grain based feeding systems.
• In pasture-based systems may be less affect unless competition arises from cropping
Potential impacts on crop-livestock farming systems
Potential impacts on crop-livestock systems
Intensification, diversification
Farming system Example
countries
Land resource
constraints
Market
access
Intensi-
fication
Diversi-
fication
maize mixed crop-livestock Kenya 0.5 8.4 2 3
wheat based crop- livestock Turkey 0.5 2.9 Na Na
sorghum-based crop-livestock India 0.7 9.8 2.5 2
cassava/ crop-livestock Nigeria 0.4 7.0 3.5 2
sugarcane/ crop-livestock Brazil 0.5 2.5 2 4
oil palm/ crop-livestock Indonesia 0.9 15.6 Na Na
Cereal-livestock Brazil 0.3 4.1 0 1
livestock dominant Argentina 0.2 3.3 3 2
rice-based crop-livestock China 0.5 3.2 1 4
rice-based crop-livestock India 0.4 2.3 2 3
Policy implications and research priorities
• Policy implications
• Research priorities
Policy implications
• Foster widespread use of second generation bioethanol production
• Reduce, amend, or even eliminate biofuels trade barriers
• Avoid aggressive biofuel expansion through subsidies which runs ahead of the availability of proven sustainable feedstock and biofuel production technologies
• Target rate of expansion of biofuels to the particular agricultural resource base and crop-livestock-energy systems as well as available technologies of each country
• Encourage small and medium size feedstock farmers and also small scale biofuel technologies
Research priorities
• Life cycle analyses (LCA)• Biofuel value chain and local markets study• Strategic assessment and targeting• Early warning system in hotspots• Integrated crop-livestock-energy models • Management of crop residues • Local innovation and learning • Sense-act-observe-adjust