FELIX QUI PÓTUIT RERUM COGNÓSCERE CÁUSAS

(Vergílius Geórgica II, 490)

(Happy man who was able to find causes of the issue)

CLIMATE CHANGE…

Temperature changes of the Earth in the last 450 000 years

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-450000 -400000 -350000 -300000 -250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0

lata - years (BP)

°C (dT

)

1.5°C/700 years !!!

?

Climate change & extremes model

Climate change & extremes

`

Long-term climate change

Apparent

Changes in observingtimes

Changes inaveraging methods

Stationrelocations

Changes in the closevicinity of the station

Real

LocalDirectly orindirectlyclimatic

Instrumentation

Shelter/screen Measuring device

Change in design

Change inlocation/height

Progressivechanges (e.g.Dirtying)

Change in calibrationdue to ageing

Replacement

Changes in vegetation,soil or drainage

Re/deforestation,artificial lakes

Buildingconstruction

Urbanization

Industrialization

Other

Changes in circulation

Changes inplanetary albedo,ice and snow

Changes inatmospherictransparency(aerosols, CO2

Extraterrestrialchanges (solarconstant, etc.)

Climaticcyclec?

Other

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

?

CLIMATE SCENARIOS

Modelling…

Statistical and empirical downscalling…

Scenarios… (SRES scheme)

Projected global air temperature changes (surface warming) according to different emission scenarios (IPCC)

Relative changes in precipitation (in %) for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999

SRES: A1B scenario

winter: D J F summer: J J A

Large-scale relative changes in annual runoff (water availability in %) for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999SRES: A1B scenario

Uncertainty …

Projected global air temperature changes according to different emission scenarios

(different IPCC reports)

CONCLUSIONS→ Climate changes are facinating issues from the scientific point of view.

However, they require broad, interdisciplinary knowledge.

→ Climate change reveals as unusual complex problem. It also concern its climate impacts.

→ Due to official scientific scenarios the climate change impacts on population including the life quality and health are not too optimistic for low latitude located countries (e.g. Sahel region). Let us hope that these scenarios will be totally wrong. Scenarios are much better for Central Europe.

→ One should believe that human mind and activity including policy and solidarity will solve the most difficult human problems - even if the worst scenarios will happen.

→ In all climate change studies and research there is some percentage of uncertainty. No one with high responsibility can formulate absolute opinions as to climate future as well as impacts including human population.

→ Therefore the following sentence given by O. Wilde seems to be quite actual:EMS & ECAC, 10-14th September 2012, Lodz, Poland

”Man can believe the impossible, but man can never believe the

improbable”(Oscar Wilde)

The day after tomorrow…

Bratislava, 8 November 2012

Bratislava, 8 November 2012

Bratislava, 8 November 2012