2013 Northwest Hydro Operators Forum

1111

FERC’s Expectation for FERC’s Expectation for EAPsEAPs

David Lord, P.E., D2SI Dam Safety Risk David Lord, P.E., D2SI Dam Safety Risk team – Portland, Orteam – Portland, Or

Natural Hazards: Events and Response

2222

FERC Regulates 2948 Dams and Project Structures

3333

834 High Hazard Potential234 Significant Hazard Potential

44

EAP Planning

The FERC EAP program is recognized across the The FERC EAP program is recognized across the world.world.

The program depends on effective training of all The program depends on effective training of all participants, adequate communication with first participants, adequate communication with first responders, and adequate testing of all parts of responders, and adequate testing of all parts of the EAP.the EAP.

Continued enthusiastic participation of owners is Continued enthusiastic participation of owners is essential to the success of the EAP program.essential to the success of the EAP program.

44

55

EAP Enhancement InitiativeRequirement of all high and significant hazard potential dam owners:

•Include in the EAP a more detailed description of your operating plan during high flow events

66

EAP Enhancement InitiativeEAP Enhancement Initiative

Why did FERC begin this initiative?Why did FERC begin this initiative?

During recent storm events FERC received inquiries from During recent storm events FERC received inquiries from several Licensees asking what pre-emptive steps they could several Licensees asking what pre-emptive steps they could undertake to ensure their dams safely passed the expected undertake to ensure their dams safely passed the expected flood flows. We wanted to ensure that all Licensees are flood flows. We wanted to ensure that all Licensees are prepared ahead of storm events to avoid unnecessary prepared ahead of storm events to avoid unnecessary complications during the eventscomplications during the events..

Make sure Licensees have a well thought out operating plan Make sure Licensees have a well thought out operating plan to safely pass flood flowsto safely pass flood flows

Improve communication to reduce post flood event Improve communication to reduce post flood event complaints complaints

77

1. Essential operations before, during, and after flood flows reach your project.

2. A general overview tying project discharges to EAP notification procedures.

3. For projects that are remotely operated, describe what triggers sending staff to a project and at what point personnel are to be physically present at a site.

4. If the reservoir is to be drawdown describe coordination you will undertake with the resource agencies.

5. Establish trigger for discharges exceeding bank flows and when notifications are to be given to emergency responders.

EAP Enhancement Initiative

Key Aspects Described in EAP

88

TIME SENSITIVE EAPSTIME SENSITIVE EAPSINITIATIVEINITIATIVE

Sudden-Failure AssessmentSudden-Failure Assessment• Sudden/Unexpected Failure During Off-Sudden/Unexpected Failure During Off-

HoursHours• Focus on First Downstream ResidentFocus on First Downstream Resident• Conservative Method (?)Conservative Method (?)

99

METHOD FOR ASSESSING TIME METHOD FOR ASSESSING TIME SENSITIVE EAPSSENSITIVE EAPS

Determine Time to ImpactDetermine Time to Impact Determine Dam Owner’s Response TimeDetermine Dam Owner’s Response Time

• Detection TimeDetection Time• Verification TimeVerification Time• Notification TimeNotification Time

Get Estimate of EMA’s Response TimeGet Estimate of EMA’s Response Time Calculate Excess Response TimeCalculate Excess Response Time Assess ResultsAssess Results

1010

SUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTSUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTTime to ImpactTime to Impact

1111

SUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTSUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTDetection TimeDetection Time

Amount of Time after Amount of Time after Failure Begins until Dam Failure Begins until Dam Owner is Aware of Owner is Aware of ProblemProblem

Typically Triggered by Typically Triggered by InstrumentInstrument

Assume Non-Working Assume Non-Working HoursHours

Based on Test of SystemBased on Test of System

1212

SUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTSUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTVerification TimeVerification Time

Amount of Time to Amount of Time to Verify Problem at Dam, Verify Problem at Dam, Once Problem Has Once Problem Has Been Detected.Been Detected.

In Person, Cameras, In Person, Cameras, Redundant Redundant InstrumentsInstruments

Assume Non-Working Assume Non-Working HoursHours

Based on Test/DrillBased on Test/Drill

1313

SUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTSUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTNotification TimeNotification Time

Amount of Time to Amount of Time to Notify EMA After Notify EMA After Problem is VerifiedProblem is Verified

Includes Discussions Includes Discussions Between Dam Owner Between Dam Owner Personnel before EMA Personnel before EMA CalledCalled

Based on Annual Based on Annual Drill/Call Down TestDrill/Call Down Test

1414

SUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTSUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTEMA’s Response TimeEMA’s Response Time

Amount of Time the Amount of Time the EMA needs to Warn EMA needs to Warn and/or Evacuate and/or Evacuate Critical ResidencesCritical Residences

Based on Input from Based on Input from EMAs during Annual EMAs during Annual Orientation/MeetingOrientation/Meeting

1515

SUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTSUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTAssess ResultsAssess Results

Enhancement Time Parameter Impacted

Benefit

Adjust trigger points on headwater/tailwater levels.

Detection Quicker detection.

Install internet-accessible cameras pointed at headwater and tailwater staff gages.

Verification Eliminates drive to dam to verify emergency.

Notification Allows project manager to activate EAP without talking to operator. Provides redundancy if operator is unavailable.

Operator will contact EMA directly if failure is evident.

Notification Allows operator to activate EAP without talking to project manager. Provides redundancy if project manager is unavailable.

Create Pre-Scripted Messages for Project Manager/Operator to inform local EMA of emergency.

Notification Allows project manager/operator to give EMA all information they would need as quickly as possible.

1616

SUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTSUDDEN FAILURE ASSESSMENTAssess ResultsAssess Results

Step Time Parameter Time (min)A Time to Impact 30

B Detection Time 10C Verification Time 5D Notification Time 5E Dam Owner’s Response Time

(B + C + D)20

F EMA Response Time 20

G Excess Response Time(A – (E + F))

-10

1717

1.Large Negative Excess Response Time - the dam owner should be able to improve their detection, verification, & notification.

2.Time to Impact is very small (0-15 minutes) – the residents will be aware of failure before dam owner.

3.For these cases, coordinate with EMA to develop public education.

What We Are Finding…

1818

• Tighten existing HW/TW alarm set points.• Install new remote monitoring systems.• Thermal imaging to detect breach• Solar-powered instruments

POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENTSDetection Time

1919

POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENTS (CONT)POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENTS (CONT)Verification TimeVerification Time

• Install redundant/independent alarms.• Install remote access cameras.• Install lights on gages• Verify high flows with USGS Gage/National

Weather Service.• Get non-employee that is closer to verify

problem (e.g., local police).

2020

•Streamline Internal Procedures (Notification Flow Chart).

•Add Redundancy to Callers.•Preliminary Notification of EMAs•Develop Pre-Scripted Messages.•Use dam-owner controlled Reverse 911 system to notify several agencies at once.

POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENTS (CONT)POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENTS (CONT)Notification TimeNotification Time

2121

•Use reverse 911 system to notify Use reverse 911 system to notify residents.residents.

•Use system to send text messages to Use system to send text messages to residents.residents.

•Install sirens.Install sirens.•Provide NOAA radios.Provide NOAA radios.•Dam Owner Agrees to warn people Dam Owner Agrees to warn people directly.directly.

POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENTS (CONT)POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENTS (CONT)EMA Response TimeEMA Response Time

2222

•Dam Owner should coordinate with Dam Owner should coordinate with EMA about providing public education.EMA about providing public education.

•Annual flier/letter? Signs?Annual flier/letter? Signs?

•What should people do if river is What should people do if river is unexpectedly high and rising?unexpectedly high and rising?

•What to do if get Reverse 911 call or What to do if get Reverse 911 call or hear siren?hear siren?

PUBLIC EDUCATIONPUBLIC EDUCATION

2323

CAMPGROUND EDUCATIONCAMPGROUND EDUCATION

2424

RESIDENT EDUCATIONRESIDENT EDUCATION

2525

2626

2727

EXAMPLE LETTEROur records indicate you live near the White River near Blackstone

Dam. Although the dam is safe, it’s possible that high flows or problems at the dam would call for evacuations.

(1)If the river is unexpectedly high and rising, call 911 and move to high ground (Main Street near the Burger Shack).

(2)Do not walk or drive through moving/deep standing water. If there is no safe escape from your house, go to upper floors and call 911.

(3)Your phone number is in the White County automated warning system. If you receive an automated message about high flows – follow the directions in the message.

If you have any questions, call Joe Rogers of the White County Emergency Management Agency at (201) 555-1313

2828

EXAMPLE LETTEROur records indicate you live near the White River near Blackstone

Dam. Although the dam is safe, it’s possible that high flows or problems at the dam would call for evacuations.

(1)If the river is unexpectedly high and rising, call 911 and move to high ground (Main Street near the Burger Shack).

(2)Do not walk or drive through moving/deep standing water. If there is no safe escape from your house, go to upper floors and call 911.

(3)Your phone number is in the White County automated warning system. If you receive an automated message about high flows – follow the directions in the message.

If you have any questions, call Joe Rogers of the White County Emergency Management Agency at (201) 555-1313

2929

Hebgen Incident

At Hebgen, several issues were of interest.At Hebgen, several issues were of interest.

The year before the stoplog failure in 2008, PPL-Montana The year before the stoplog failure in 2008, PPL-Montana found that the dam failure alarm lacked a long-distance found that the dam failure alarm lacked a long-distance telephone access, which would have prevented the alarm telephone access, which would have prevented the alarm from making call-outs.from making call-outs.

During the incident, the call-outs to 24 hour centers were During the incident, the call-outs to 24 hour centers were made, but no one answered.made, but no one answered.

The trading desk did not recognize this as a call to respond The trading desk did not recognize this as a call to respond to and the main generation desk lacked an answering to and the main generation desk lacked an answering machine for bathroom breaks, etc.machine for bathroom breaks, etc.

30303030

Risk-Informed Decision Making Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) Program(RIDM) Program

In 2002, D2SI established a Potential Failure Modes Analysis (PFMA) program for all high and significant hazard (HSH) dams.

In 2009, the Commission adopted a strategic plan to

develop a probabilistically oriented program, titled Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM).

D2SI recently has initiated development of RIDM

engineering guidelines.

Drafts of some guidelines are to be completed by September 2013.

3131

Tolerable Risk ConceptsTolerable Risk Concepts

Unacceptable Risk

Range of Tolerable Risk

Broadly Acceptable Risk

Incr

easin

g ind

ividu

al ris

ks an

d so

cietal

conc

erns

Tolerable Risk LimitLower Risk to a tolerable level by meeting project specific ALARP requirements

Tolerable Residual Risk

3131

32323232

Risk-Informed Decision Making Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM)(RIDM)

Decisions are made by using a Decisions are made by using a chartchart that compares F (the likelihood of that compares F (the likelihood of failure) to N (the PLL) failure) to N (the PLL)

The fN (or FN) charts have a The fN (or FN) charts have a one to one to oneone relationship between frequency relationship between frequency and PLL for societal risk and PLL for societal risk

33333333

USACE Societal Tolerable Risk USACE Societal Tolerable Risk ChartChart

3434

Emergency Action PlanningEmergency Action Planning

Risk is a combination of likelihood of dam failure Risk is a combination of likelihood of dam failure and consequence.and consequence.

There are two ways to reduce risk; reduce the There are two ways to reduce risk; reduce the likelihood of dam failure and reduce the likelihood of dam failure and reduce the consequences. consequences.

Dam safety professionals have primarily focused Dam safety professionals have primarily focused on reduce the likelihood of failure, but need to on reduce the likelihood of failure, but need to recognize how the other half of the equation recognize how the other half of the equation reduces risk.reduces risk.

3434

3535

Emergency Action PlanningEmergency Action Planning

EAP planning has primarily been focused EAP planning has primarily been focused on responding to unforeseen eventson responding to unforeseen events

However, good EAPs also reduce the However, good EAPs also reduce the consequence risk, as I will explain in a consequence risk, as I will explain in a minuteminute

Let’s look back at one of the tolerable risk Let’s look back at one of the tolerable risk guidelines currently being used (Slide 34).guidelines currently being used (Slide 34).

3535

3636

Consequence (PLL) Risk Consequence (PLL) Risk Another factor in improving our EAP Another factor in improving our EAP

planning is to more properly identify planning is to more properly identify where the potential life loss (PLL) risk is.where the potential life loss (PLL) risk is.

Knowing where the risk is will improve Knowing where the risk is will improve both the EAP program and help owners both the EAP program and help owners better understand the risks inherent with better understand the risks inherent with owning dams.owning dams.

3636

3737

Aerial Photo of Priest Rapids Dam Priest Rapids Project, P-2114

(Courtesy of Grant County PUD)

3737

3838

Aerial Photo of Priest Rapids Dam Google Earth

Wanapum Village

Right Embankment

3838

3939

Village

Wanapum Village

3939

4040

Wanapum Village

4040

4141

Conclusions

EAP Planning is essential to improving the life safety risk below dams.

Non-failure risks need to receive adequate planning.

Planning for time-sensitive potential dam failures is essential

4141

4242

Conclusions

Dam failure alarm systems should be adequately tested

Owners should develop a full understanding of the potential life loss from a dam failure.

Pre-planning for early intervention during a dam incident could effectively reduce the likelihood of dam failure.

4242