Conclusions

Fertility Trends and Differentials in Peninsular MalaysiaTey Nai Peng (University of Malaya)

Abstract

Malaysia is also well endowed with a comprehensive time series data on birth and death from civil registration. Period measures of fertility such as the crude birth rate and total fertility, disaggregated by ethnicity and place of residence, are published annually by the Department of Statistics. Time series data on age specific fertility can be used to examine changes in cohort fertility.Since its inception in 1966, the National Population and Family Development Board, Malaysia has conducted population and family surveys in 1967, 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004. These surveys provided detailed information for studying changes in cohort fertility across regions and among the various ethnic and socioeconomic group in the country.

The pace of fertility transition varies significantly across the various ethnic groups. The fertility level of Chinese and Indian descents has dipped below replacement level in 2005, but that of the Malays has remained close to 3 children per woman. Ethnic differentials in fertility based on period measures may be over-estimated. To what extent has rising age at marriage and delay in childbearing resulted in underestimation or overestimation of fertility based on the period measure for the synthetic cohort?

This paper examines the fertility trends and patterns of the various ethnic groups (the Malays, Chinese and Indians) using both cohort and period measures. Survey data are used to analyze the socioeconomic correlates of fertility and its proximate determinants.

The fertility estimates based on the period and cohort measures will be compared for a better understanding of the tempo distortion of the level of fertility. The results from this analysis will provide a better basis in making fertility assumption for population projection to be used in development planning.

Introduction

In Malaysia, a comprehensive vital registration system since the 1960s has facilitated research on fertility trends. Period measures of fertility such as the crude birth rate and total fertility, disaggregated by ethnicity and place of residence, are published annually by the Department of Statistics. A number of studies have been conducted using data from household surveys that provided data for a more detailed examination of differentials and determinants of fertility at the individual levels (Chander, et al., 1977; Tan, 1981; Tan 1983; Lim, et al. 1985; Tan et al., 1987; Hamid, et al., 1988; Tey, et al.; 1988; Leete, 1989; Saw, 1990; Leete and Tan, 1993; Tey, 2002 and 2006).

The crude birth rate and the total fertility rate are the two most commonly used measures for the study of fertility levels and differentials. The age-sex adjusted total fertility rate (TFR) is the preferred measure for examining the fertility trends and differentials. The TFR is a measure of the completed fertility of a synthetic cohort of women. Age specific fertility rates of successive periods can be combined to derive fertility measures of true birth or marriage cohorts of women (Siegel and Swanson, 2004).

This paper examines the fertility trends and differentials using both the period and cohort measures. Each of these measures has its own limitations. As noted by Maire Ni Bhrolchain (1992), when the cohort tempo is decelerating, period total fertility rate will be too low relative to the corresponding measures of the cohort affected. As the various ethnic groups in Malaysia are at different stages of demographic transition, the period measure may not accurately reflect the ethnic fertility differentials. The cohort measure does not allow one to examine the current situation, due to censoring. Our focus on ethnic fertility differentials is premised on the importance of the ethnic variable in policy-making. Moreover, data disaggregated by other socioeconomic variables are not available. The three main ethnic groups in Peninsular Malaysia, the Malays, Chinese and Indians, are culturally and geographically distinctive and differ in family system and socioeconomic conditions. These ethnic groups also differ in term of demographic transition. Trends in Period Fertility

Fertility transition in Malaysia began before the launching of the National Family Planning Program in 1966. The total fertility rate (TFR) for Peninsular Malaysia has declined to about 2.5 per woman in 2005, from about 6 in 1960. With rapid socioeconomic development, the fertility level is expected to decline further. The pace of fertility transition varies significantly across the various ethnic groups. The Chinese and Indians started with higher fertility in the early 1960s, but had undergone a more rapid decline than that of the Malays. Consequently, Malay fertility has been higher than that of the other two ethnic groups since the late 1960s. For all ethnic groups, fertility decline accelerated following the launching of the National Family Planning Program, but there was a stalling of Malay fertility in the mid 1970s owing to the revival of Islamic fundamentalism, only to resume after the economic recession in 1985 (Leete and Tan, 1993). Fertility differentials between the Malays and non-Malays reached its height in the second half of the 1980, when the TFR of the Malays (at around 4.7-4.8) was more than twice as high as that of the Chinese (around 2.3-2.7) and also much higher than that of the Indians (around 2.9-3.0). Subsequently, ethnic fertility differential has become less pronounced as the TFR of the Malays declined from 4.8 in 1985 to 3.5 in 2000, while there had been a deceleration in fertility transition among the non-Malays at relatively low level. The period TFR for the Chinese fluctuated between replacement level and 2.7 during the period 1983-2000. The Chinese TFR had reached replacement level in 1989 following an upsurge in 1988 (believed to be a double auspicious year of the Dragon and Chinese digital preference for 8); and in 1999, a year before another Dragon year (2000). In contrast, Indian TFR has shown a more consistent decline, from 2.9 in 1993 to 2.4 in 2000.

Figure 1: Trends in period total fertility rate by ethnicity, 1957-2005, Peninsular Malaysia

An examination of the age specific fertility rate shows that fertility decline had occurred for all age groups within each ethnic group. However, the decline has generally been more pronounced among the youngest and oldest age groupthe youngest due to rising age at marriage, and the oldest due to earlier termination of childbearing. There was a stalling of fertility decline among women aged 20-44 during the period 1970-85. and a slight increase in births among Chinese women aged 25-34 between 1990 and 1995. The rise in age specific fertility rate among women in the prime reproductive age group could be attributed to postponement in childbearing resulting from rising age at marriage. The rate of fertility decline among the Indians decelerated since the mid 1980s, and stalling of fertility decline was observed for those in the 30-39 age groups (table 1).

Table 1: Age specific fertility rates and TFR by ethnicity and year, Peninsular MalaysiaYear15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-49Period TFR

All races196011630630824515968146080

19658026630824615669195720

19705622427122814470165045

1975451882361901244684185

1980351762331771084253880

1985211352191761114353550

1990191242031711063943330

1995151232151701033323305

20001292189164983332955

2005774166147842322515

Malays196016332527121113549125830

196510828429423114763195730

19707424426323415459185230

19755420923920314956114605

1980401892452951446284915

1985321852692351696784825

1990231522312011476634115

1995191442341971365733950

2000111072221851254953520

20056891931591042832910

Chinese196036250348301205101186295

19653022137826617583205865

19702518428422613859134645

1975251512341831003763680

198022147218151682033145

198512107198145601112670

1990 975164135581002255

19951080193149591002505

20001072173156681212460

200554913912339601805

Indians196019341336625715947117230

196512835235226815357146620

19707227526720812042114975

197552222244150842653915

198043192223137571623350

19853015120013355812890

199023126178121511102550

199522124189127561102645

200016100166127611312420

200596713911741801905

Sources: Department of Statistics, 2001, 2003 and Vital Statistics, various years; and Tan, et al., 1987.Table 2: Proportion women currently married, total marital fertility rate and age specific marital fertility rate by ethnicity, 1980, 1990 and 2000

19801990200019801990/912000

Percent ever marriedTotal marital fertility rate and age specific marital fertility rate

Malays

GMFR218.3203.0*171.9

15-191163396434344

20-24513932376399334

25-29837777310308295

30-34929090236232211

35-39969494159164139

40-44989595687555

45-49999796946

Chinese

GMFR179.6127.1*128.7

15-19532478360556

20-24372417405305424

25-29726556306257313

30-34878382177165194

35-39928989716778

40-44949291221114

45-49979493201

Indians

GMFR206.5148.3*121.6

15-19964494383410

20-24453830434359337

25-29767069304261245

30-34898585164148153

35-39959090596071

40-44979492171315

45-49989594301

Sources: Computed based on DOS 1983; 1995, 2002, and vital statistics reports, various years

Note: General marital fertility rate (GMFR) refers to the number of birth in year t divided by the number of ever married women in year t times 1000

Age specific marital fertility rate refers to number of birth occurring to women in specific age group divided by number of married women in the same age group in year t times 1000

*Refer to 1991

Table 2 shows that the proportion ever married among those aged below 25 has decreased substantially for all ethnic groups. Such changes in marital structure could affect the total fertility rate and age specific fertility rates without any change in fertility. The general marital fertility among the Malays had declined from about 218 per thousand women in 1980 to 172 in 2000, while that of the Chinese and Indians had declined from 180 and 207 to 129 and 122 respectively. It is interesting to note that in 2000 while Chinese women aged 25-29 had the lowest proportion ever married, their marital fertility was slightly higher than that of the Malays and much higher than that of the Indians.

For all ethnic groups, the magnitude of change in the age specific marital fertility rate has been much less compared to the age specific fertility rate. Ethnic differentials in marital fertility are also less pronounced as compared the age specific and total fertility rate. Hence, the wide ethnic fertility differentials are to a large extent due to differences in age at marriage and non-marriage among the three ethnic groups.Trend in Cohort Fertility Evidence from Vital Registration DataWith a fairly long series of age specific fertility rate, it is possible to compute the cohort TFR by summing the age specific fertility rates in table 1 along the diagonal from the upper left to the lower right hand corner. Where data of a particular cohort is incomplete, the missing rates were estimated based on the age specific fertility rate of 1960 and 2005. The declining trend in cohort TFR, or the completed family size of each cohort of women at age 50 is clearly shown in Figure 2 and table 4. As expected, the trend of the cohort TFR is smoother as compared to that of the period TFR which is subject to short term fluctuation (see figure 1 and figure 2)..

The cohort measure shows the same pattern of ethnic fertility differentials as that depicted by the period TFR. Across the cohorts, Malay fertility was considerably higher than that of the other two ethnic groups, especially the Chinese. However, as in the case of the period TFR, ethnic fertility differentials across cohorts have also been narrowing. For instance, the Malay-Chinese fertility differential had narrowed from 2.3 among the 1946-50 cohorts (at its highest) to 1.3 among the 1966-70 cohorts. Figure 2: Trends in cohort total fertility rate by ethnicity, 1957-2005, Peninsular Malaysia

Source: Computed from table 1.Table 3 shows that for the non-Malays about 90 percent of the births had occurred by age 35, and a very small proportion continued childbearing beyond age 40. As for the Malays, about 80 percent of the births had occurred by age 35, and only about 5 percent of the women had continued childbearing beyond age 40. The proportion of completed fertility by age 25 has been declining rather rapidly across the cohorts. With rising age at marriage, childbearing has become more concentrated in the prime reproductive age group. For the most recent cohort (1961-65) that is nearing the end of their reproduction in year 2005, the Malays have on average about 4 children as compared to about 2.6 among the Chinese and 2.8 among the Indians. Trend in Cohort Fertility Evidence from Population Censuses and Surveys

The 1970 and 1980 population censuses collected information on the number of children. However, since then information on family size could only be estimated from a series of household surveys. Table 4 summarizes the mean number of children ever born to married women for the period 1970-2004. Data show that the completed family size has been declining steadily from about 6 children among the cohorts of 1920-39 to about 4 among the 1955-64 cohorts. Over the years, the mean number of children ever born has been declining among married women of all ages. This suggests that the downward trend in family size is likely to continue.

Table 3: Cumulative cohort fertility by ethnicity, Peninsular Malaysia

Cumulative fertility (per 1000 women) at agePercent of total TFR at age

All races25303540455025303540

1936-4021103650479054105620564537.464.784.995.8

1941-4519103265421547554970499038.365.484.595.3

1946-5015202700358541404335434535.062.182.595.3

1951-5512202385326537953960397530.760.082.195.5

1956-6011052200305535703735374529.558.781.695.3

1961-658501865271532053320333025.556.081.596.2

1966-707251800262030403155316522.956.982.896.1

1971-757101655239028102925293524.256.481.495.7

Malays

1936-4024403910508058256135617539.563.382.394.3

1941-4522353550456552855620563539.763.081.093.8

1946-5017602955443052755605562031.352.678.893.9

1951-5514152640381545504835486029.154.378.593.6

1956-6012152560356542454490450527.056.879.194.2

1961-6511252280326538904030404527.856.480.796.2

1966-709202090301535353675369024.956.681.795.8

1971-758351945274032603400341524.557.080.295.5

Chinese

1936-4014303320445049505050505528.365.788.097.9

1941-4512852705362039604015401532.067.490.298.6

1946-5010702240299532953345334532.067.089.598.5

1951-558801970269529853035304028.964.888.798.2

1956-608601850252528202880288029.964.287.797.9

1961-656451465221025502580258025.056.885.798.8

1966-704351400218023752405240518.158.290.698.8

1971-754451310192521202150215020.760.989.598.6

Indian

1936-4030304790583062506330633547.875.692.098.7

1941-4527254060481050955135513553.179.193.799.2

1946-5020153235392041954250425047.476.192.298.7

1951-5514702585325035053560356541.272.591.298.3

1956-6012202220282531053170317038.570.089.197.9

1961-659701860249528002840284034.265.587.998.6

1966-707801725236025652605260529.966.290.698.5

1971-757351565215023552395239530.765.389.898.3

Source: Computed from table 1.Table 4: Mean number of children born to married women by age/birth cohort), Peninsular MalaysiaAge group1970197419801984198819942004

15-190.90.8 0.80.90.8.7.7

20-241.9 1.71.51.51.51.21.2

25-293.32.82.42.32.32.11.8

30-344.64.23.63.53.43.12.6

35-395.75.54.74.24.03.93.4

40-446.06.15.55.44.84.44.0

45-495.96.25.96.15.34.93.9

All women4.14.23.63.63.43.43.1

Sources : Tan, P.C., 1983, Hamid, A. and others, and computation by authors using 1988 Malaysian Family Life Survey, and 1994 and 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Surveys

For all ethnic groups, the completed family size increased between the 1908-1912 cohort and 1931-35 cohort (1935-39 among the Malays), but since then there has been a rather sharp decrease in completed family size. In 2004, the completed family size of women born in 1955-59 was 4.7 for the Malays, 3.0 for the Chinese and 3.3 for the Indians. The completed family size of Chinese and Indian women of the 1955-59 birth cohort was only about half of that achieved by their mothers. Data shows that the Malays have undergone a more gradual reduction in family size (table 5). Given that the majority of women would have married by age 45-49, the completed family size is comparable with the cohort TFR which relates to all women in the reproductive age groups. The completed family size based on household surveys in many instances corresponds quite closely the cohort total fertility rate. For instance, among the1955-59 cohort, the completed family size of 4.7 corresponded very closely the cohort TFR of 4,505 per thousand women; and among the 1945-49 cohort, the completed family size was 5.6 as compared to a cohort TFR of 5633. Data from the 1988, 1994 and 2004 surveys show that marital fertility for all age groups has been declining in recent years, with the exception of Indians aged 30-34 (table 6). This provides further evidence of the continuing fertility decline. Among women aged 35 and above, Malays had at least one child more than the non-Malays. In 2004, the completed family size of the Malays of was 4.7 as compared to 3.0 for the Chinese and 3.3 for the Indians.Table 5: Mean number of children ever born to married women aged 45-49 by ethnicity and cohort, Peninsular MalaysiaCensus/survey yearBirth cohortAll ethnic groupsMalaysChineseIndians

19571908-1912 -5.05.14.7

19701921-19255.95.56.15.9

19741925-19296.25.96.76.4

19801931-19355.96.05.66.1

19841935-19396.16.85.16.1

19881939-19435.35.64.55.7

19941945-19494.95.63.74.6

20041955-19593.94.73.03.3

Sources : Tan, P.C., 1983, Hamid, A. and others, 1988, and computation by author using 1994 and 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Surveys

Table 6: Mean number of children ever born to married women by age and ethnicity, 1988, 1994 and 2004, Peninsular Malaysia15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-49All women

Malays

1988.71.62.43.74.75.65.6 3.6

1994.61.22.13.44.25.05.6 3.7

2004.61.01.82.83.94.64.7 3.4

Chinese

19881.31.02.02.83.13.94.5 3.0

19941.1.91.82.83.13.53.7 2.9

20041.01.61.72.22.73.13.0 2.7

Indians

1988.91.52.43.23.65.05.7 3.3

1994.91.31.92.63.53.84.6 3.0

2004.91.11.72.82.83.23.3 2.7

Sources: Computed from 1988 Malaysian Family Life Survey and 1994 and 2004 Malaysian Population and Family SurveysTable 7 shows the percentage distribution of married women aged 45-49 by number of children ever born. Between 1945-49 and 1955-59 cohort, there was a rather sharp decrease in the proportion with 5 and more children, especially among the non-Malays. Among the 1955-59 cohorts, about half of the Malays had at least 5 children, as compared to 12.6 percent of the Chinese and 33.1 percent of the Indians.Table 7: Percent distribution by number of children ever born to married women aged 45- 49 by cohort and ethnicityNumber of childrenMalaysChineseIndiansAll ethnic groups

100.0100.0100.0100.0

1945-49 cohort (1994 Survey)None3.71.63.13.1

1-210.123.215.414.4

3-423.443.233.831.0

5+62.831.947.751.5

1955-59 cohort (2004 survey)None3.62.17.63.4

1-211.233.727.321.4

3-435.151.645.542.2

5+50.112.619.733.1

Sources: Computed from 1994 and 2004 Malaysian Population and Family SurveysThe mean number of children ever born by marriage cohorts also shows wide variations across the ethnic groups. Among those who were married in 1980 or earlier (most would have had completed reproduction), the Malays had on average 5.5 children, as compared to 3.6 among the Chinese and 4.1 among the Indians. Ethnic fertility differentials persisted in the successive marriage cohorts (table 8).Table 8:Mean number of children ever born to married women by marriage cohort and ethnicity, Peninsular Malaysia

Ethnic groupMarriage cohortUnadjustedAdjusted for age and age at marriage

Malays1980 and earlier3775.54.6

1981-853564.74.4

1986-903764.04.2

1991-954033.13.7

Chinese 1980 and earlier1853.62.8

1981-852183.03.0

1986-901992.93.4

1991-951962.53.3

Indians 1980 and earlier534.13.2

1981-85683.43.1

1986-90663.23.5

1991-95792.63.2

Source: Computed from 2004 Malaysian Population and Family SurveysComparing Cohort and Period FertilityBoth the cohort and period measures vindicate that the fertility level for all the ethnic groups in Peninsular Malaysia has been declining over the last five decades. Comparing figure 1 and figure 2, we observe that the cohort TFR has shown a more consistent downward trend as compared to the period TFR which is subjected to short term fluctuations.

Between 1960 and 2000, the period TFF has fallen by 58.6% for Peninsular Malaysia as a whole, 50.0 percent for the Malays, and about 71-73 percent for the Chinese and Indians respectively. The decline in cohort TFR between the 1936-40 cohorts and 1971-75 cohorts was relatively slower, falling by 48 percent for Peninsular Malaysia, 45 percent for the Malays, 57 percent for the Chinese and 62 percent for the Indians. Fertility decline among the non-Malays has been more rapid than that of the Malays. The more rapid fertility transition among the non-Malays as compared to the Malays can be attributed to postponement in marriage and childbearing among the Chinese and Indians. Among the 1951-56 cohort, Malays women would end up 1.8 children more than Chinese women and 1.4 more than Indian women, but such differentials have reduced to 1.3 and 1.0 respectively. Such differentials correspond quite closely the ethnic differentials in the period TFR since 1995. Among the Chinese, the stalling of a decline in the period TFR was evident in the late 1980s and 1990s, and this was reflected by stalling of cohort TFR. Explaining the Declining Fertility TrendMalaysia has achieved remarkable economic progress and social development. The economy has been growing at 5- 8% per annum for most of the years. The GDP per capita increased from US$975 in 1960 to US$4707 in 2001, at constant 1995 US$ (World Bank, 2003). The employment pattern has witnessed dramatic shifts away from the agriculture sector towards the urban, industrial and services sector. In 1957, about 58% of the working population was engaged in agriculture, but this has decreased steadily just above 50% in 1970, 41% in 1980, 24% in 1991 and 15.2% by 2000 (Leete, 1996; DOS 2003). The proportionate share of employment in the manufacturing sector has increased from 8% in 1970 28% in 2003. More and more women are working in urban labor market, and their roles and status have seen marked improvements. The urbanization level has increased to about two thirds of the population in 2000, from about a quarter in the 1960ss.In 2000, about two-thirds of the population lived in urban areas, compared with just 25% in the 1960s.

Malaysia has also achieved spectacular gain in human development. The educational level has improved substantially. Primary education is virtually universal. In 2000, the secondary school enrolment ratio was 74% for females and 67% for males. Enrolment in tertiary education has reached 28% in 2000 (World Bank, 2003). The proportion with tertiary education increases from about 2 percent among the 1936-40 birth cohorts to about a quarter among the 1976-80 birth cohorts (table 9). Women have overtaken the men in tertiary education (Tey, 2006).

Table 9 Percentage distribution of Malaysian population aged 15 and above by educational level and birth cohort

Birth cohortNonePrimary schoolLower secondaryUpper secondaryVocational/

technicalPost secondaryTertiaryTotal

1936-4038.445.16.96.70.20.52.2100.0

1941-4525.548.311.010.40.31.13.4100.0

1946-5017.347.115.114.00.51.24.8100.0

1951-5511.038.921.619.31.01.76.5100.0

1956-608.332.522.524.91.32.67.9100.0

1961-655.520.625.732.61.93.510.3100.0

1966-704.113.526.736.82.14.212.6100.0

1971-752.69.726.039.72.64.315.0100.0

1976-802.07.720.540.23.64.621.5100.0

Source: Tey, 2006a.Fertility decline is the result of rapid socioeconomic development, mediated through rising age at marriage and increased use of contraceptive methods. The 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Survey shows that for all ethnic groups the mean number of children ever born is strongly negatively correlated with the educational level of women (Figure 3).

Factors such as urbanization, increased female labor force participation, breakdown of the extended family system also have brought about change in proximate determinants of fertility which results in smaller family size. As many of these factors are closely inter-related in affecting the fertility level, a multivariate analysis using a few selected variables is shown in table 10.Table 10 shows that in 2004 the average number of children born to married women aged 15-49 was 3.4 for the Malays and 2.7 each for the Chinese and Indians; and rural women had more children than urban women (about 3.6 versus 2.9). Controlling for place of residence, the ethnic differentials in fertility would be reduced slightly. Further controlling for womens education would have increased the ethnic differentials instead, indicating that a higher educational attainment among Malay women as compared to non-Malay women. The urban rural fertility would have been smaller if rural women had the same level of education as their urban counterparts. Model 3 shows that the educational level of the women has a very strong effect on the number of children ever born, with a difference of 1.6 children between those with primary education and those with tertiary education.

Figure 3: Mean number of children ever born by education

Source: Computed from 2004 Malaysian Population and Family SurveyIn model 4, with the introduction of age at marriage as a factor, the ethnic differentials narrow somewhat, indicating that if Chinese women were to marry early as Malay women, the differential in the number of children ever born would be reduced from 0.9 to 0.6, if place of residence and educational level are held constant. The educational effect would also be reduced substantially because better educated women tended to marry later than lesser educated women. As expected, age at marriage provides the sharpest differentials in the number of children ever born.

With the further addition of age into model 5, the ethnic differentials are about the same as the (unadjusted) observed figures, as shown in model 1, and rural women would have 0.4 children more than the urban women, a smaller differential as compared to the (unadjusted) observed figures. The educational differential in the number of children ever born practically disappear. This indicates that the educational effects are largely explained away by age at marriage and marital duration. Differentials in mean number of children ever born by age at marriage become even more pronounced once age (and duration of marriage) is controlled.

Table 10: Multiple classification analysis of children ever born by selected variablesModel 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5* adjusted for age

Ethnic groupMalays3.43.33.53.43.4

Chinese2.72.82.62.82.7

Indians2.72.82.62.62.8

StratumRural3.63.43.43.4

Urban2.93.03.03.0

EducationPrimary4.03.83.1

Lower secondary3.43.23.3

Upper secondary2.62.73.4

Tertiary2.42.73.2

Age at marriageBelow 203.94.1

20-