ffo oor rre eec cca aas ssttt ... - imdchennai.gov.inimdchennai.gov.in/wxsummfinal.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
i
FFFOOORRREEECCCAAASSSTTT DDDEEEMMMOOONNNSSSTTTAAARRRTTTIIIOOONNN PPPRRROOOJJJEEECCCTTT (((CCCYYYCCCLLLOOONNNEEE))) --- 222000111000
(INTENSE OBSERVATION PERIOD : 05 -08 NOV 2010)
REPORT BY FIELD OPERATIONAL CENTRE
by Y.E.A.RAJ, S.BALACHANDRAN,
RM.A.N.RAMANATHAN, B.GEETHA, K.RAMESH, N.SELVAM
M.V.GUHAN & D.RAJAN BABU
Cyclone Warning & Research Centre
Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai
ii
PREFACE
India, having an extensive coastline is subjected to the fury of landfalling Tropical
Cyclones (TC) that form over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during the pre-monsoon months of
April-May and the Northeast monsoon season of October-December, which is the chief cyclone
season over the NIO. As such, prediction of TC genesis, movement and intensity is a very
important mandate of India Meteorological Department (IMD). With the ushering in of modern
observing systems and remote sensing techniques through satellites, huge volumes of
meteorological data over the erstwhile data sparse oceanic areas are now available. Assimilation
of such data into the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have improved TC
forecasting leaps and bounds in the developed countries in the recent decades. Now, India is also
striving hard to collect crucial data from TC fields and assimilate them in NWP models to
improve its forecasts on TC genesis, movement, intensity and landfall.
As an outcome of Indo-US atmospheric science programme, a scientific plan namely
Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) (Cyclone) – was designed with key scientific objectives
of demonstrating the ability of the NWP models to predict cyclone track, intensity and landfall
over the Bay of Bengal using enhanced observation including the measurements from dropsonde
over the periphery of the cyclone and to assess the accuracy limits of the forecasting aspects
related to cyclone. The FDP is a multi institutional programme involving many related scientific
institutions. It is conducted in three phases - Pre-Pilot phase (15 October – 30 November, 2008),
Pilot phase – (15 October – 30 November, 2009) and Field Phase (15 October – November,
2010-2011).
For implementation of this programme, National Operational Centre (NOC) was
established at Northern Hemispheric Analysis Centre (NHAC), IMD New Delhi which is
responsible for entire coordination and declaration of Intense Observation Periods (IOPs). Also,
the Cyclone Warning & Research Centre, functioning at RMC Chennai, was made as Field
Operational Centre (FOC) to establish links with FDP partners, to notify IOP phases to field
iii
stations and other FDP partners, to coordinate and update the status of observation and to collect
and transmit informations received from the field stations and FDP partners to the NOC.
Being a centre dedicated for studies on TCs, CWRC, RMC Chennai is aptly functioning
as the FOC and is actively involved in coordinating with the field stations, including making
arrangments for taking special GPS sonde ascents and setting onboard equipments in the Sagar
Kanya Cruise during IOPs. During the pre-pilot and pilot phases of the programme, the FOC,
Chennai archived all raw data collected, including special observations taken during IOPs, in a
CD, and sent to the NOC. Now, for the field phase of the programme (15 October – 30
November 2010), during which one IOP was observed in connection with formation and
movement of Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Jal’ over the Bay of Bengal during 05-08 November 2010,
this centre is bringing out a Weather Summary of observations and analysis on a regional scale,
which, I hope, would be immensely useful to the various FDP research groups.
iv
Acknowledgements
CWRC, RMC Chennai is grateful to IMD, HQ for designating it as the FOC for the FDP
programme.
The Weather Summary of FDP, IOP, 05-08 November 2010 is an outcome of efforts of
many personnel involved in generating crucial data for prosecuting advanced studies on tropical
cyclones. Special observations were taken during the cyclone period by all participating
institutions, IMD field stations in coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh and Sagar Kanya
Cruise members.
Our deep felt thanks to our FDP partners Indian Space Research Organisation, National
Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati, INS Rajali, Arakkonam for their valuable
observations during the IOP.
The FOC, Chennai also acknowledges the crucial role played by the IMD observers at the
field stations for taking special hourly observations continuously for three days in bad weather
conditions despite manpower shortage. Our special thanks are due to those who went on tour at
short notice to cover special GPS sonde ascents at designated field stations.
Our thanks are also due to AMO, ACWC, INSAT-AWS, RS/RW and RMSU, RMC
Chennai for their support throughout the programme.
v
Contents
Chapter Details Page No.
1 Introduction 1
2 Field Operational Centre 2
3 Data sources and Analysis 2
4 Large Scale synoptic features during the IOP, 05-08 Nov 2010 3
5 Description of Weather Summary 4
5.1 Life history of the SCS Jal 4
5.2 Observations and analysis 5
5.2.1 Surface synoptic observations and analysis 5
5.2.2 Upper air observations and Tephigram analysis 6
5.2.3 Satellite products 6
5.2.4 NWP products 7
5.2.5 AWS data 8
6 Conclusions 8
vi
List of Tables
Table No. Details Page No.
TABLE 1a List of Surface coastal observatories where hourly special
observations were taken
10
TABLE 1b Locations of Sagar Kanya cruise during different instances of IOP
period and its distance from the TC centre
11
TABLE 2
Chief rainfall amounts recorded in RMC Chennai region at 03
UTC of 05-08 Nov 2010
12
TABLE 3 Thermodynamic parameters CAPE, CINE and TPWC during 05-
08 November 2010 / 00 UTC
18
vii
List of figures
Fig. No. Details Page No.
Fig.1 Locations of stations / Sagar Kanya cruise were special observations were
taken
19
Fig.2 IMD’s observed track of SCS ‘Jal’ 20
Fig.3(a-d) Surface Synoptic analysis charts of 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC 21-22
Fig.4(a-d) 24 hr pressure departures during05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC 23
Fig.5(a-d) Surface Humidity during 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC 24
Fig.6(a-d) 24 hr accumulated precipitation recorded during 05-08 November 2010 / 03
UTC
25
Fig.7(a-d) Plots of surface synoptic observations (3 hourly) at selected stations and in
Sagar Kanya cruise (6 hourly) during 05-08 November 2010
26-29
Fig.8(a-d) Mean upper air winds at 850, 500, 300 & 200 hPa levels during 05-08
November 2010
30-33
Fig.9(a-d)
(i-iii)
Tephigrams of Karaikal, Chennai(MBK) and Machilipatnam during 00 UTC
of 05-08 November 2010
34-37
Fig.10(a-f) KALPANA-1 OLR (W/m2) for 05-08/00 UTC and 07/06&12 UTC of Nov
2010
38-39
Fig.11 (a-f) KALPANA – 1, Cloud Top Temperature (Below -40˚C) during 05-08/00
UTC and 07/06&12 UTC Nov 2010
40-42
Fig.12(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai analysis based on 05-08/00 UTC 43-46
Fig.13(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai wind forecasts over Chennai during 05-08 Nov
2010
47-48
Fig.14(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai track forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’
49-50
Fig.15(a&b) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai Intensity forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’
51
Fig.16 Plot of AWS observations on 07th/ 16UTC 52
viii
1
1. Introduction
The Northeast monsoon season of October to December (OND) is the chief cyclone
season over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) even though Tropical Cyclones (TCs) do form during
the pre-monsoon months of April-May. On an average, every year, during OND, about 5
depressions form over the NIO out of which, 2 to 3 reach the intensity of Cyclonic Storm (wind
speed > 33 knots) & above and 1 to 2 reach the intensity of SCS (wind speed > 64 knots) &
above. India, having an extensive coast line, is vulnerable to destructive effects of the
landfalling TCs of NIO. Time and again, some of the coastal areas, especially in the eastern
coast, have been subjected to the fury of very severe cyclonic storms, in the form of gale force
winds, torrential rains and storm surge. There have been extensive loss of life and property due
to the devastating effects of the landfalling TCs.
Forecasting the formation, movement and coastal crossing of TCs, well in advance of
landfall is of utmost importance in order to take necessary disaster mitigatory measures. India
Meteorological Department (IMD) is vested with the mandate of forecasting the formation,
movement and coastal crossing of TCs that form over the NIO. A lot of research and
developmental activities are undertaken by IMD to improve the accuracy and precision of its TC
forecasts. One such recent effort, is the Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) (Cyclone), a Bay
of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Experiment planned as an outcome of Indo-US Atmospheric Science
Programme.
The key scientific objective of the FDP(Cyclone) is to demonstrate the ability of
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to predict the track, intensity and landfall point of
Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal using enhanced observations including measurements
from dropsonde over the periphery of the TC and to assess the accuracy limits of the forecasting
aspects related to TCs. Various research groups have been encouraged to conduct focused
research works in the area of TC forecasting using all the special observational data collected
during the experiments.
The FDP (Cyclone) is a multi-institutional programme involving all related scientific
organisations. The National Operational Centre (NOC) established at the Northern Hemispheric
Analysis Centre (NHAC), India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi is responsible for
2
entire coordination of the programme and declaration of Intense Observation Periods (IOPs)
during the experiment. A pre-pilot phase of the experiment was conducted during 15 October to
30 November, 2008 (FDP 2008) and a pilot phase of the programme during 15 October to 30
November, 2009 (FDP 2009). A Field phase of the experiment was conducted during 15 October
to 30 November 2010 (FDP 2010).
2. Field Operational Centre
The Cyclone Warning & Research Centre (CWRC) functioning at Regional
Meteorological Centre (RMC), Chennai is entrusted the role of Field Operational Centre (FOC)
for the FDP (Cyclone) programme. The role of FOC is to establish links with FDP partners, to
notify IOP phases to FDP partners / field units, to coordinate and update the status of
observations and to collect and transmit data from FDP partners and field units. The data
collected during 2008 and 2009 have been archived and sent to NOC, IMD, New Delhi for
sharing with research groups.
During FDP 2010, one IOP was declared during 05/00 UTC – 08/00 UTC of November
2010 in connection with the formation and movement of Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) ‘Jal’ and
special observations were taken at IMD’s coastal stations of Tamil Nadu / Andhra Pradesh, on
board Sagar Kanya Cruise in the sea and by other participating scientific institutions such as
Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Indian Naval Service (INS, Rajali, Arakkonam,
Tamil Nadu) and National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), Gadanki, Tirupati, ISRO.
The data collected are archived for use by the research groups as was done during FDP 2008 and
2009. As the SCS, ‘Jal’ made landfall over North Tamil Nadu – South Andhra Pradesh coast,
north of Chennai, in addition to the raw data archives, a summary of the observational analysis
and NWP forecast products generated at RMC Chennai during the IOP, 05-08 November 2010,
would also prove to be quite useful to the research community. A scientific report on the IOP
during 05-08 November 2010, on regional scale, namely, ‘Forecast Demonstration Project
(Cyclone)- Weather Summary, Intense Observation Period, 05-08 Nov 2010’ is prepared for
the benefit of the researchers on TCs over NIO.
3
3. Data sources and Analysis
The data sources and analysis products used for preparation of this report are as follows:
(i) Surface and upper air observations taken at the IMD’s coastal stations of Tamil Nadu and
Andhra Pradesh
(ii) Surface and upper air observations taken on board Sagar Kanya cruise
(iii) Satellite imageries, NWP products and conventional observational products and analysis
generated using Synergie Forecasting Tool installed at RMC Chennai
(iv) WRF model products generated at RMC Chennai using HPC
(v) AWS data
(vi) ISRO - GPS sonde ascents taken at Calingapatnam, Bapatla, INS Rajali, Arakkonam and
NARL, Gadanki, Tirupati.
4. Large Scale synoptic features during the IOP, 05-08 November 2010
During the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from Indian region, the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) starts moving southward. Simultaneously, the vast land areas of
Siberian region undergoes fast radiative cooling and establishes a surface pressure gradient
between the cold, high pressure region over Siberia and relatively warm NIO. Outflow from the
Siberian high causes dramatic reversal of low level winds over the peninsular India from
southwesterlies to northeasterlies during mid-October and onset of northeast monsoon occurs
during the third week of October. When the ITCZ passes over the warm NIO, environment
becomes conducive for cyclogenesis and so the northeast monsoon season of October to
December (OND) is the chief cyclone season for NIO. Generally, during OND, Tropical
cyclones form over the Bay of Bengal and generally move northwestwards towards Andhra
Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts but sometimes they recurve towards West Bengal, Bangladesh
and Arakan coasts.
4
During the lone IOP of 2010 (05-08 November 2010), a depression had formed over
Southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0300 UTC of 04th November 2010 near latitude
8.5 0 N and longitude 91.0 0 E at about 1300 km east-southeast of Chennai. As the system
showed likelihood of further intensification and landfall over the east coast of India , an IOP was
declared from 05th
November 00 UTC. The system intensified into SCS on 06th
/ 00 UTC and
subsequently moving northwestward weakened into a deep depression before crossing coast
north of Chennai on 07th around 18-19 UTC. IOP was continued till 08
th November, 00 UTC.
Special hourly coastal surface observations, 6 hourly upper air observations (including ISRO-
GPS sonde observations) at IMD stations in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, surface and upper
air observations onboard Sagar Kanya Cruise, upper air observations by other participating
institutions - INS Rajali, Arakkonam and NARL, Gadanki, Tirupati were taken during the IOP.
Table 1a presents the list of coastal observatories in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh that took
special hourly observations during the said IOP. In Table 1b, locations of the Sagar Kanya
cruise and its distance from the TC centre during different instances of the IOP period are
presented. Fig.1 depicts the actual locations were these special observations were taken during
the IOP.
5. Description of Weather Summary
5.1 Life history of the SCS Jal
A depression formed over the West Pacific Ocean on 31st October 2010 in association
with an active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It moved west-northwestwards across
southern Thailand and emerged as a low pressure area over the south Andaman Sea on 2nd
November. It continued to move west-northwestwards and concentrated into a Depression at
0530 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 over southeast Bay of Bengal near lat. 8.0 deg. N and 92.0
deg. E. It intensified into a Deep Depression in the early morning of 5th November and into a
Cyclonic Storm ‘JAL’ at 1130 hrs IST of the same day with centre near lat. 9.00N and long.
5
87.50E, about 900 km east-southeast of Chennai. The cyclonic storm ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay
of Bengal continued to move west-northwestwards and intensified further into a severe cyclonic
storm in the early hours of 6th November. However as the severe cyclonic storm, JAL moved to
the southwest Bay of Bengal closer to India coast, it entered into a region of lower ocean thermal
energy and moderate to high vertical wind shear in association with the strong easterlies in the
upper tropospheric level. The high wind shear led to westward shearing of the convective clouds
form the system centre and lower Ocean thermal energy led to unsustainability of convection
over the region. Due to these two factors, the severe cyclonic storm, JAL weakened into a
cyclonic storm at 1130 hrs IST of 7th November 2010 over southwest Bay of Bengal with centre
near lat.12.50N and long. 82.50E, about 250 km east-southeast of Chennai. It weakened further
into a deep depression and crossed north Tamilnadu – south Andhra Pradesh coast, close to the
north of Chennai near 13.30N and 80.30E) around 2130 hrs IST of 07th November 2010. It
continued to move west-northwestwards, further weakened into a depression at 0830 hrs IST and
into a well marked low pressure area over Rayalaseema and adjoining south interior Karnataka at
1130 hrs IST of today, the 8th November 2010. It emerged into the east central Arabian Sea on
9th November as a low pressure area and then moved initially northwestwards towards
Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coast during 9-11th November. Thereafter it moved
northeastwards across Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining Pakistan and became less marked on
12th November 2010. The observed track of the SCS Jal is presented in Fig.2.
Salient features
• Weakened into a deep depression over the sea before the landfall.
• The convective clouds were sheared to the west to a large extent on the date of landfall
(7th November 2010). As a result, more rainfall occurred over the interior parts than the coastal
regions.
5.2 Observations and analysis
The chief synoptic, dynamic and thermodynamic features over the NIO during the IOP,
05-08 November 2010 are summarised below based on synoptic analysis (including Synergie
6
products), satellite imageries and products and NWP (WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai) analysis and
forecasts for the period 05-08 / 00 UTC. The chief rainfall amounts realised during the period
05-08 November 2010 are presented in Table 2.
5.2.1 Surface synoptic observations and analysis
Fig.3(a-d) present synoptic analysis / plots of surface observations with superimposed satellite
Kalpana (Infra-red) imageries at 00 UTC of 05th, 06
th, 07
th and 08
th November 2010.
Fig.4(a-d) present the 24 hour pressure departure plots.
Fig.5(a-d) and Fig.6(a-d) give the surface humidity and 24 hour accumulated precipitation plots
of 05th
, 06th, 07
th and 08
th November 2010 based on 00 UTC and 0300 UTC respectively.
In Fig.7(a-d) Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), Wind speed (in knots) and Wind direction
recorded at three hourly interval at five surface coastal observatories [Chennai (near to the
landfall point) Cuddalore and Karaikal (south of landfall point), Nellore and Ongole (north of
landfall point)] and on board Sagar Kanya cruise during 05-08 November 2010 are presented.
The following aspects are noted:
The lowest 24 hour pressure fall was observed at 07/00 UTC with 3-6 hPa pressure fall
along CTN and CAP during the last 24 hours. On 8th
/00 UTC, positive 24 hour pressure
tendency was seen along the CTN and CAP. The interior regions and the west coast showed fall
in pressure during the last 24 hours ending 08/00 UTC. The surface humidity reduced from 95-
100% on 06/00 UTC to 80-100% along north CTN and south CAP on 07/00 UTC. Sagar Kanya
cruise has recorded 15-25 knots wind at about 640-1220 km from the TC centre during the
period 05th/00 to 08
th/00 UTC. A lowest pressure of 1006.2 hPa was recorded at about 854 km
from the TC centre on 06th/12 UTC.
5.2.2 Upper air observations and Tephigram analysis
Upper air winds at 850, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels during 05-08 November 2010 / 00
UTC are presented in Fig.8(a-d). Tephigrams plotted for 00 UTC observations taken at Karaikal,
7
Chennai (Minambakkam) and Machilipatnam during the above IOP are given in Fig.9(a-d)(i-iii).
Table 3 presents the values of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Convective
Inhibitive Energy (CINE) and Total Precipitable Water Content (TPWC) over these stations at
00 UTC from 05th
to 08th. It can be seen that CAPE was highest over Machilipatnam (2331
J/Kg) on 05/00UTC, over Karaikal on 06/00 & 07/00 UTC (2016 J/Kg & 1963 J/Kg
respectively). CAPE was practically nil over all the three places on 08/00 UTC. The highest
value of CAPE over Karaikal decreased slightly from 2016 J/Kg on 06/00 UTC to 1963 J/Kg on
07/00 UTC. The CINE was lowest over Machilipatnam on 05/00 UTC (-201 J/Kg). Thereafter,
it was lowest over Karaikal on 06/00 & 07/00 UTC. It was nil over all the three stations on 08/00
UTC. The lowest CINE of -145 J/kg over Karaikal on 06/00 UTC increased to -34 J/Kg on 07/00
UTC. The Total Precipitable Water Content (TPWC) was highest over Machilipatnam on 05/00
UTC (63.2 mm), 07/00 UTC (68.5 mm) and 08/00 UTC (85.3 mm). On 06/00 UTC, it was
highest over Karaikal at 63.3 mm.
5.2.3 Satellite products
Kalpana satellite products - Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Cloud Top
Temperatures (CTT) (below -40ºC) for the above period are presented in Figs.10(a-f) & 11(a-f)
respectively.
The morphology of CTTs indicates more organised and axi-symmetric development of
deep convection over southern quadrants of the system on 06/00UTC as compared to 05/00UTC.
The development of deep convection extends further to northern quadrants on 07/00UTC. The
areal coverage of deep convection (-80˚C or less) increased further on 7th
/00UTC. The slackened
gradient of CTT on western and southern sectors as compared to eastern and northern sectors
indicate presence of more deep clouds over western and southern sectors. At 06 UTC of 7th, the
areal coverage of the most deep convective clouds (-80˚C or less) decreased considerably. The
gradient of CTT in the eastern sector is stronger indicating lesser deep convection in this region.
On the western sector where deep convective clouds are present, there is a slight disorganistion
of the clouds in the outer most regions with CTT between -50 and -40˚C. At 12 UTC of 07th,
8
there is total disorganisation of the developed CTT pattern. The lowest CTT of -60˚C is present
over a very small area indicating that the convective clouds are becoming shallower.
The OLR pattern over the Bay region indicates an expansion in areal extent of the lowest
OLR of less than 100 W/m2 and a gradual westward shift from 05
th to 07
th / 00 UTC. On 07
th/00
UTC, the lowest OLR contour is partly over the CTN and partly off the coast, over the sea. At
06 UTC of 07th
, the lowest OLR (<100W/m2) has decreased considerably in areal extent and is
fully over the land (Tamil Nadu). At 12 UTC of 07th, the lowest OLR values seen are 100-150
W/m2 and not 100 W/m
2. These lowest OLR values are found over north interior Tamil Nadu,
south interior Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka. On 08th
/00 UTC, low OLR values of
150-200 W/m2 are seen over north coastal Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra and Orissa.
5.2.4 NWP products
The WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai analysis plots of MSLP, winds at 850, 500 & 200 hPa
levels, vertical wind shear (between 850-200 hPa levels) and moisture convergence at 850 hPa
level are presented in Fig.12(a-d). The WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai 24 hr forecast of winds over
Chennai are presented in Fig.13(a-d). RMC Chennai, HPC- WRF, track and intensity predictions
are presented in Fig.14(a-d) and 15(a&b) respectively. Upper air wind forecasts for Chennai,
based on 07th/00 UTC indicates veering of winds at low levels from northerly to southerly on
7th/10-11 UTC. WRF track forecast based on 05
th / 00 UTC indicates landfall over 13.6˚N
latitude north of Chennai around 06 UTC of 7th
. The model forecasts a lowest central pressure of
966.9 hPa over 81.3˚E and 12.3˚N on 6th, 23 UTC and gradual weakening of the system
thereafter.
5.2.5 AWS data
The AWS at Ennore port located nearly 20 km north of Chennai city provided some
crucial and valuable data input during the coastal crossing of TC JAL north of chennai. The TC
Jal weakened considerably before crossing the coast, the weakening mainly due to shearing. The
cloud mass associated with the system detatched from the surface vortex and drifted rapidly
9
westwards. However, the low level circulation remained in the sea off the coast. DWR imageries
indicated a weak vortex. The AWS at Ennore port provided the following valuable data:
1. The wind speed at 0830 hrs & 0930 hrs IST on 07th is northwesterly 33 knots clearly showing
that the system maintained near CS intensity on 7th
morning.
2.The lowest pressure of 996.2 hpa was recorded at 1530 hrs a fall of 13.2 hpa compared to the
pressure recorded at 0930 hrs of 6th.
3. From 1630 hrs of 7th
, the surface wind started steadily backing up, the directions during the
subsequent hours are 020, 000, 330, 290, 230, 210, 190, 170 deg, indicating time of crossing at
nearly 2130 hrs.
A plot of Ennore AWS data recorded at 16 UTC (2130 hrs IST) is presented in Fig.16.
6. Conclusions
The FDP(Cyclones) field phase – 2010 was conducted during 15 October to 30
November 2010. During this period, one intense observation period was declared three days
from 05th/00 UTC to 08
th/00 UTC of November 2010 in connection with formation and
movement of SCS ‘Jal’ in the Bay of Bengal. Though the system attained a maximum intensity
of SCS, it crossed North Tamil Nadu coast (close to North Chennai) as a Deep Depression on
07th
November 2010 around 1600 UTC (2130 hrs IST). IMD’s coastal observatories and other
sister organisations participating in the experiment took special observations during this period.
Special observations were also taken by onboard Sagar Kanya cruise. Observations recorded and
basic analysis carried out during the period are presented in this Weather Summary. Surface
synoptic observations indicated lowest 24 hour pressure fall at 07/00 UTC with 3-6 hPa pressure
fall along CTN and CAP in the last 24 hours. The surface humidity reduced from 95-100% on
06/00 UTC to 80-100% along north CTN and south CAP on 07/00 UTC. Sagar Kanya cruise has
recorded a lowest pressure of 1006.2 hPa at about 854 km from the TC centre on 06th/12 UTC.
Satellite based Cloud Top Temperature analysis indicated a considerable decrease in the areal
coverage of the most deep convective clouds (CTT ≤ -80˚C) at 06 UTC of 7th
. The lowest OLR
(<100W/m2) decreased considerably in areal extent at 06 UTC of 7
th and is seen fully over the
10
land (Tamil Nadu). Track predictions based on WRF model (with 00UTC of 05th
and 06th
as
initial conditions) indicated weakening of the system after 06th
/21 UTC and coastal crossing
between 13-14˚N around 00-06 UTC of 07th. Ennore (North of Chennai) AWS data indicated
coastal crossing of the system at 1600 UTC (2130 hrs IST). This Weather Summary would serve
as a concise reference material on observational aspects for research works related to the TC
‘Jal’.
11
TABLE 1a
List of Surface coastal observatories where hourly special observations were taken
S.No Station Station ID
1 Kalingapatnam 43105
2 Visakhapatnam 43149
3 Kakinada 43189
4 Tuni 43147
5 Kavali 43243
6 Nidadavole 43184
7 Narasapur 43187
8 Gannavaram 43181
9 Machilipattinam 43185
10 Bapatla 43220
11 Ongole 43221
12 Nellore 43245
13 Chennai 43279
14 Puducherry 43331
15 Cuddalore 43329
16 Karaikal 43346
17 Nagapattinam 43347
18 Vedaranyam 43349
19 Adirampattinam 43348
20 Tondi 43361
21 Pambam 43363
22 Thoothukudi [Tuticorin] 43379
23 Palayamkottai 43376
24 Kanniyakumari 43377
12
TABLE 1b
Locations of Sagar Kanya cruise during different instances of IOP period and its distance
from the TC centre
Date Time
(UTC)
Position of Sagar Kanya
(i)
Position of TC centre
(ii)
Distance
between
(i) & (ii)
(km) Lat (˚) Lon (˚) Lat (˚) Lon (˚)
05.11.2010 00 14.6 90.0 9.0 88.5 643
05.11.2010 06 14.9 90.0 9.0 87.5 710
05.11.2010 18 15.1 90.0 10.0 86.5 682
06.11.2010 00 15.5 89.9 10.0 85.5 775
06.11.2010 06 16.0 89.6 10.5 85.5 755
06.11.2010 12 16.8 89.7 11.0 84.5 854
06.11.2010 18 17.0 89.6 11.0 84.0 899
07.11.2010 00 17.7 89.5 11.5 83.5 944
07.11.2010 06 18.0 89.5 12.5 82.5 968
07.11.2010 12 18.0 89.5 13.0 81.0 1066
07.11.2010 18 18.0 89.6 13.5 80.0 1142
08.11.2010 00 18.0 89.7 14.0 79.0 1226
13
TABLE 2
Chief rainfall amounts recorded in RMC Chennai region at 03 UTC of 05-08 Nov 2010
Date / rainfall
category
Realised rainfall amount in cm
05 Nov 2010
Very heavy - Heavy
Avinashi (Tiruppur dt) 14, Srirangapatnam (Mandya dt) 11, Krishnarajansagara
(Mandya dt) 10 and Ambasanudram (Tirunelveli dt) 9.
Other chief
amounts of
rainfall
Mettur Dam (Salem dt), Sattur and Watrap (both Virudhunagar dt) 6 each,
Hirekerur (Haveri dt), Sakleshpura (Hassan dt), Harangi (Kodagu dt), T.
Narsipura (Mysore dt), Shenkottai (Tirunelveli dt), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt),
Pochampalli (Krishnagiri dt) and Dharapuram (Tiruppur dt) 5 each,
Venkatapuram (Khammam dt), Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Subramanya
(Dakshina Kannada dt), Balehonnur (Chickmagalur dt), N. R. Pura
(Chickmagalur dt), Arkalgud (Hassan dt), Madikeri, Yercaud and
Kamatchipuram (Dindugal dt) 4 each, Machilipatnam, Kavali, Tenali (Guntur dt),
Mahabubabad (Warangal dt), Gooty (Ananthapur dt), Thalasserry (Kannur dt),
Perinthalamanna (Malapuram dt), Yellapura (Uttara Kannada dt), Jayapura and
Kottigehera, Sringeri (all Chickmagalur dt), Kushalnagar and Hosanagar (both
Shimoga dt), Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Manimuthar (Tirunelveli dt), Chengam,
Polur and Sathanur Dam (all Tiruvannamalai dt), Palacode and Marandahalli
(both Dharmapuri dt), Udumalpet and Kangeyam (both Tiruppur dt),
Satyamangalam (Erode dt), Devala (Nilgiris dt), Sholavandan (Madurai dt),
Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar dt), Virudhunagar and Palani (Dindugal dt) 3 each,
Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Kottur (Udupi dt), Gokak (Belgaum dt), Manvi
(Raichur dt), Nelamangala (Bangalore Rural dt), Mandya, Holalur (Shimoga dt),
Kollengode and Pattambi (both Palakkad dt), Kochi airport, Vinjamur, Udayagiri
and Rapur (all Nellore dt), Hyderabad airport, Alampur (Mahabubnagar dt),
Kuppam, Kalakada and Srikalahasthi (all Chittoor dt), Cuddapah, Porumamilla
(Cuddapah dt), Alur (Kurnool dt), Chilamattur (Ananthapur dt), Parangipettai,
Adiramapattinam, Kumbakonam (Thanjavur dt), Muthupet (Thiruvarur dt),
Tarangambadi (Nagapattinam dt), Viralimalai (Pudukottai dt), Rameshwaram
(Ramanathapuram dt), Radhapuram (Tirunelveli dt), Penugondapuram, Barur,
Hosur and Denkanikottai (all Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Coimbatore airport,
Bhavanisagar and Thalavadi (both Erode dt), Coonoor, Naduvattam (Nilgiris dt),
Thuraiyur (Tiruchirapalli dt), Vadipatti (Madurai dt), Gadalur and
Uthamapalayam (both Theni dt), Tirupathur (Sivagangai dt), Sivakasi,
Srivilliputhur and Tiruchuzhi (all Virudhunagar dt) 2 each and Kannur, Chittur
(Palakkad dt), CIAL Kochi, Mancompu and Chengannur (both Alapuzha dt),
Mani and Mudibidre (both Dakshina Kannada dt), Karkala (Udupi dt),
Tavaragere (Koppal dt), Hoskore (Bangalore Rural dt), Bangalore, Bangalore
14
airport, Begur, M. M. Hills and Yellandur (all Chamrajnagar dt), Gauribidanur
(Chikkaballapura dt), Lakkavalli (Chikmagalur dt), Holenarsipur and
Sravanabelagola (both Hassan dt), Somwarpet, Ammathy and Madapura (all
Kodagu dt), Bangarpet (Kolar dt), Mysore, Nanjangud (Mysore dt), Nellore,
Atmakur and Seetharampuram (both Nellore dt), Khammam, Yellandu
(Khammam dt), Ramayampet (Medak dt), Bhongir (Nalgonda dt), Kanekal,
Tadipatri, Kalyandurg and Penukonda (all Ananthapur dt), Thambalapalle
(Chittoor dt), Muddanur and Vempalli (both Cuddapah dt), Kodaikanal,
Poonamalle, Ponneri, Poondi and Thamaraipakkam (all Thiruvallur dt),
Chidambaram and Thozhudur (both Cuddalore dt), Kallakurichi (Villupuram dt),
Grand Anaicut, Madukkur and Peravurani (all Thanjavur dt), Kodavasal,
Needamangalam and Valangaiman (all Tiruvarur dt), Kollidam (Nagapattinam
dt), Nagapattinam, Vedaranyam, Tirumayam (Pudukottai dt), Mudukulathur
(Ramanathapuram dt), Pamban, Ayikudi and Thenkasi (both Tirunelveli dt),
Vilathikulam (Tuticorin dt), Gudalur Bazaar, Kundha Bridge and Ketti (all
Nilgiris dt), Uthagamandalam, Melur (Madurai dt), Periyar Dam (Theni dt),
Dindigul, Vedasandur (Dindigul dt), Tiruvannamalai, Melalathur (Vellore dt),
Tirupattur, Soolagiri, Thali and Uthangarai (all Krishnagiri dt), Kumarapalayam,
Rasipuram and Sendamangalam (all Namakkal dt), Attur and Vazhapadi (both
Salem dt) 1 each.
06 Nov 2010
Very heavy - Heavy
Piravom (Ernakulam dt) 13, Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt) 12, Subramanya (Dakshina Kannada dt) 11, Napoklu (Kodagu dt), Madurai airport and Virudhunagar 9 each,
Ammathy and Virajpet (both Kodagu dt), Tirumangalam (Madurai dt) 8 each and
Mannarkkad (Palakkad dt), Begur (Chamrajnagar dt), Bhagamandala (Kodagu dt), Hunsur, Nanjangud and Surgur (all Mysore dt), Thalavadi (Erode dt) and Chittampatti
(Madurai dt) 7 each.
Other chief amounts of
rainfall
Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Gerusoppa (Uttara Kannada dt), Alur (Hassan dt),
Manaparai (Tiruchirapalli dt), Aruppukottai and Kovilankulam 6 each,
Balehonnur and Kammardi (both Chikmagalur dt), Chengannur (Alapuzha dt),
Thodupuzha (Idukki dt), Chinnakallar (Coimbatore dt) and Valparai 5 each, Mani
(Dakshina Kannada dt), Chamrajnagar, Holenarsipur (Hassan dt), Harangi
(Kodagu dt), Ambalavayal (Wayanad dt), Aluwa (Ernakulam dt), CIAL Kochi,
Aryankavu (Kollam dt), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram dt), Tondi, Attur and Mettur
Dam (both Salem dt), Coimbatore airport, Dharapuram (Tiruppur dt), Devala and
Gudalur Bazaar (both Nilgiris dt), Karur Paramathi, Melur and Mettupatti (both
Madurai dt) and Nilakottai (Dindigul dt) 4 each and Kochi airport, Vadakara
(Kozhikode dt), Irinjalakuda, Chalakudy and Enamackal (all Thrissur dt),
Alapuzha, Kozha (Kottayam dt), Punalur, Tiruvananthapuram, Nedumangad
(Tiruvananthapuram dt), Karwar, Honnali (Davanagere dt), Madapura and
Somwarpet (both Kodagu dt), Madikeri, Mysore, Peravurani and Tiruvaiyaru
(both Thanjavur dt), Vedaranyam, Illuppur and Gandarvakottai (both Pudukottai
dt), Kadaladi and Mudukulathur (both Ramanathapuram dt), Shengottai
15
(Tirunelveli dt), Coimbatore, Bhavanisagar and Sathyamangalam (both Erode dt),
Kangeyam (Tiruppur dt), Panchapatti (Karur dt), Vembavur (Perambalur dt),
Lalgudi (Tiruchirapalli dt), Usilampatti and Vadipatti (both Madurai dt), Gudalur
(Theni dt), Sivagangai, Sattur and Watrap (both Virudhunagar dt) and Chatrapatti
(Dindigul dt) 3 each, Taliparamba (Kannur dt), Ottapalem (Palakkad dt),
Thrissur, Vellanikara, Munnar (Idukki dt), Idukki, Tiruvananthapuram airport,
Neyyatinkara (Tiruvananthapuram dt), Bandipura and Yellandur (both
Chamrajnagar dt), Kalasa (Chikmagalur dt), Davanagere, Arkulgud,
Sakleshpura, Arsikere and C. R. Patna (all Hassan dt), Linganamakki,
Shikaripura and Thalaguppa (all Shimoga dt), Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt),
Sattenapalli (Guntur dt), Chillamattur (Ananthapur dt), Karaikal, Grand Anaicut
and Madukkur (both Thanjavur dt), Tiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur dt), Tiruvarur,
Nagapattinam, Tarangambadi (Nagapattinam dt), Manamelkudi, Tiruvadanai
(Ramanathapuram dt), Srivaikuntam (Tuticorin dt), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt),
Hogenakkal and Pennagaram (both Dharmapuri dt), Barur and Thali (both
Krishnagiri dt), Paramathi Velur, Rasipuram, Sendamangalam and Tiruchengode
(all Namakkal dt), Thammampatti (Salem dt), Yercaud, Sulur (Coimbatore dt),
Kodumudi (Erode dt), Coonoor, Ketti, Kothagiri and Naduvattam (all Nilgiris dt),
Uthagamandalam, Mayanur (Karur dt), Perambalur, Thathiengarpet
(Tiruchirapalli dt), Sholavandhan (Madurai dt), Manamadurai, Tirupathur and
Tiruppuvanam (all Sivagangai dt) and Palani (Dindigul dt) 2 each and Mangalore
airport, Mudibidre and Mulki (both Dakshina Kannada dt), Karkala (Udupi dt),
Udupi, Belgaum airport, Basavakalyan (Bidar dt), Saidapur (Gulburga dt),
Hangal (Haveri dt), Ajjampura and Tarikere (both Chikmagalur dt), Channagiri
(Davanagere dt), Kushalnagara (Kodagu dt), K. R. Pet and Srirangapattinam
(both Mandya dt), Agumbe, Badravathi and Thyagarthi (both Shimoga dt), Y. N.
Hoskote (Tumkur dt), Macherla (Guntur dt), Tirupathi airport, Hindupur
(Ananthapur dt), Badvel and Prodattur (both Cuddapah dt), Tambaram,
Chembarambakkam (Tiruvallur dt), Adiramapattinam, Orathanadu, Pattukottai,
Thiruvidaimarudhur and Vallam (all Thanjavur dt), Muthupet and Nannilam
(both Tiruvarur dt), Tirumayam and Viralimalai (both Pudukottai dt),
Ramanathapuram, Cheranmadevi and Nanguneri (both Tirunelveli dt),
Maniyatchi (Tuticorin dt), Boothapandy and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt),
Anjatty and Soolagiri (both Krishnagiri dt), Pappireddipatti (Dharmapuri dt),
Kumarapalayam (Namakkal dt), Namakkal, Mettupalayam (Coimbatore dt),
Tiruppur, Mulanur (Tiruppur dt), Bhavani and Gobichettipalayam (both Erode
dt), Erode, Kundha Bridge (Nilgiris dt), Aravakurichi and Thogamalai (both
Karur dt), Ariyalur, Jayamkondan (Ariyalur dt), Padallur (Perambalur dt),
Pullambadi and Thuraiyur (both Tiruchirapalli dt), Peraiyur (Madurai dt), Periyar
Dam and Uthamapalayam (both Theni dt), Theni, Devakottai, Ilayangudi and
Karaikudi (all Sivagangai dt), Rajapalayam, Sivakasi and Tiruchuzhi (all
Virudhunagar dt), Dindigul, Kodaikanal, Natham (Dindigul dt), Irikkur (Kannur
dt), Hosdurg and Kudulu (both Kasargod dt), Kozhikode, Quilandy (Kozhikode
dt), Vythiri (Waynad dt), Pattambi (Palakkad dt), Perumbavur (Ernakulam dt),
Mavelikara (Alapuzha dt), Kottayam, Vaikom and Kumarakom (both Kottayam
16
dt) and Minicoy 1 each.
07 Nov 2010
Very heavy -
Heavy ----
Other chief
amounts of
rainfall
Periyakulam and Kakinada 4 each , Amalapuram (East Godavari dt), Yellapur
(Uttara Kannada dt), Kalghatgi (Darward dt), Cuddalore and Puducherry Airport
3 each, Sulurpet (Nellore dt), Koderu (West Godavari dt), Mannarkad (Palakkad
dt), Kamardi, Kottigehra and Sringeri (all Chickmagalur dt), Agumbe, Anna
university and DGP office (both Chennai dt), Chennai Airport, Chennai, Cheyyur
and Mahabalipuram (both Kancheepuram dt), and Parangipettai (Cuddalore dt) 2
each and Bheemavaram and Tanuku (both West Godavari dt), Narasapur,
Peddapuram and Prathipadu (both East Godavari dt), Tuni, Tada (Nellore dt),
Machilipatnam, Kaikalur (Krishna dt), Satyavedu and Srikalahasthi (both
Chittoor dt), Tirupathi Airport, Minicoy, Karkala , Kundapur and Kota (all Udupi
dt), Bellati (Gadag dt), Ammathy (Kodagu dt), Thyagarathi (Shimoga dt),
Maduranthagam , Sriperumbudur , Tambaram and Uthiramerur (all
Kancheepuram dt), Ponneri , Cholavaram, Chembarambakkam and Redhills (all
Tiruvallur dt), Gingee (Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Karaikal, Muthupet ,
Valangaiman and Tiruthuraipoondi (all Tiruvarur dt), Nagapatnam, Sirkazhi
(nagapatnam dt), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai dt), Bhavanisagar (Erode dt) and
Devala (Nilgiris dt) 1 each.
08 Nov 2010
Very heavy -
Heavy Palasa (Srikakulam dt) recorded extremely heavy rainfall of 27 centimetres.
Gingee (Villupuram dt) 16, Panruti (Cuddalore dt) 15, Sompeta (Srikakulam dt)
14, Ambur (Vellore dt) 13, Ichapuram (Srikakulam dt) and Vaniyambadi
(Vellore dt) 12 each, Puttur and Kuppam (both Chittoor dt), Tiruvannamalai and
Alangayam (Vellore dt) 11 each, Lakkavalli (Chickmagalur dt), Rayachoty (
Cuddapah dt), Kalingapatnam, Tindivanam (Villupuram dt), Villupuram and
Puducherry Airport 10 each, Cuddalore , Tekali (Srikakulam dt), Vanur
(Villupuram dt) and Thali (Krishnagiri dt ) 9 each, Vempalli (Cuddapah dt),
Bheemunipatnam (Visakhapatnam dt), Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram dt), Polur
(Tiruvannamalai dt) and Krishnagiri 8 each and Bangalore Airport, Hessaraghata
(Bangalore urban dt), Hosekote (Bangalore Rural dt), Gauribidanur and
Tondebhavi (Chickbalapur dt), Nargur, Y.N.Hosekote and Pavagadda (all
Tumkur dt), Thampalapalle (Chittoor dt), Madakasira, Hindupur and Kadiri (all
Anantapur dt), Nellore, Sulurpet (Nellore dt), Anakapalle (Visakhapatnam dt),
Mandasa (Srikakulam dt), Kandukur (Prakasam dt), Dharmapuri, Palacode
(Dharmapuri dt), Tirukoilur (Villupuram dt), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai dt),
Arakonam, Gudiyatham, Sholingur and Tirupattur (all Vellore dt) and Vellore 7
17
each.
Other chief
amounts of
rainfall
Kunigal and Koratagere (both Tumkur dt), Channapatna (Ramanagara dt),
Sravanabelagola (Hassan dt), Santebennur (Davanagere dt), Parasurampura ,
Hiriyur and Baramasagar (all Chittoor dt), Bangalore,Tada and Rapur (both
Nellore dt), Kavali, Elamanchili (Visakhapatnam dt), Visakahapatnam ,
Penukonda and Dharmavaram (both Anantapur dt), Barur, Denkanikottai and
Rayakottah (all Krishnagiri dt), Maduranthagam and Uthiramerur (both
Kancheepuram dt), Arani, Chengam and Sathanurdam (Tiruvannmalai dt),
Melalathur (Vellore dt), Harur and Marandahalli ( both Dharmapuri dt) 6 each,
Chodavaram (Visakhapatnam dt), Udayagiri (Nellore dt), Patapatnam
(Srikakulam dt), Pulivendala and Rajampet (both Cuddapah dt), Chilamattur ,
Kalyandurg and Amarapuram (all Anantapur dt), Arogyavaram, Tirupathi
Airport, Anekal (Bangalore Urban dt), Huliyur Durga (Tumkur dt), Anna
University (Chennai dt), Chennai, Chennai airport, Kelambakkam,
Sriperumpudur and Cheyyur (all Kancheepuram dt), Kancheepuram ,
Tambaram, Chembarambakkam , R.K.Pet and Tiruvalangadu (all Tiruvallur dt),
Tirutani, Sankarapuram and Ulundurpet (both Villupuram dt), Cheyyar
(Tiruvannamalai dt), Anchetty,Hosur, Shoolagiri and Uhtangarai (all Krishnagiri
dt) 5 each, Banavasi (Uttara Kannada dt), Gadag, Hirekerur and Ranebennur
(both Haveri dt), Ajjampura and Tarekere (both Chickmagalur dt), Jagalur
(Davanagere dt), C.R.Patna (Hasan dt), Bangarpet (Kollar dt), Kanakapura
(Ramnagara dt), Hosedurg (Shimoga dt), Ranasthalam (Srikakulam dt),
Amalapuram (East Godavari dt), Avanigadda (Krishna dt), Seethramapuram
(Nellore dt), Tanuku (West Godavari dt), Anantapur, Rayadurg , Pamidi and
Kanegal (All Anantapur dt), Chittoor, Venkatagiri Kota (Chittoor dt), Pallipattu,
Ponneri, Poonamalle, cholavaram and Red Hills (all Tiruvallur dt),
Virudhachalam (Cuddalore dt), Kolachel (Kanyakumari dt), Hogenekal,
Pappireddipatti and Pennagaram (all Dharmapuri dt) and Penugondapuram
(Krishnagiri dt) 4 each , Bapatla, Narsipatnam (Visakhapatnam dt), Vizianagaram
, Ongole, Bimavaram , Tadepalligudem and Koderu (all West Godavari dt), Tuni,
Rapalle (Guntur dt), Vinjamur , Gudur and Venkatagiri Town (all Nellore dt),
Peddapuram (East Godavari dt), Chintapalli (Visakhapatnam dt), Cheepurupalli
(Vizianagaram dt), Muddanur (Cuddapah dt), Srikalahasthi, Punganur, and
Kalakada (al Chittoor dt) , Kamlapuram and Lakkireddipalli (both Cuddapah dt),
Gersusoppa (Uttara Kannanda dt), Anigere and Bellati (both Dharward dt),
Hagari bommanahalli (Bellary dt), M.M.Hills (Chamrajnagara dt), Kadur ,
Kottigehra and N.R.Pura (all Chickmagalur dt), Harapanahalli (Davanagere dt),
Arsikere (Hassan dt), Arasalu , Humchadakatte and Talaguppa (all Shimoga dt),
DGP office (Chennai dt), Tiruvallur, Chidambaram , Sethiyathope and
Srimushnam (all Cuddalore dt), Parangipettai , Kallakurichi (Villupuram dt),
Walajapet (Vellore dt), Mettur Dam (Salem dt), Yercaud and Jayamkondam
(Ariyalur dt) 3 each, Tadipatri and Gooty (both Anantapur dt), Pakala (Chitttoor
dt), Jammalamadugu , Prodattur , Porumamilla and Badvel (all Cuddapah dt),
Salur, Terlam and Srunguvarupukotta (all Vizianagaram dt), Koyyalagudem and
18
Eluru (both West Godavari dt), Narsapur, Rentachintala, Mangalagiri (Guntur
dt), Machilipatnam, Arakuvalley (Visakhapatnam dt), Atmakur (Nellore dt),
Palakonda (Srikakulam dt), Kommarada (Vizianagaram dt), Darsi (Prakasam dt),
Kollur (Udupi dt), Bhatkal (Uttara Kannada dt), Kundgol and Navalgund (both
Dharward dt), Shirahatti (Gadag dt), Koppal , Kushtagi and Tavaragere (all
Koppal dt), Sringeri (Chickmagalur dt), Alur and Holenarsipur (both Hassan dt),
Srirangapatnam (Mandya dt), Agumbe, Thyagarthi (Shimoga dt), Poondi and
Thamaraipakkam (both Tiruvallur dt), Kattumannar koil (Cuddalore dt),
Kolllidam and Sirkazhi (both Nagapattinam dt), Boothapandi, Mylaudi ,
Nagerkoil and Thucklay (all Kanyakumari dt), Omalur and Vazhapadi (both
Salem dt) and Vembavur 2 each and Bhimodole, Chintalapudi and Polavaram
(all West Godavari dt), Veerghattam (Srikakulam dt), Rajahmundry and
Prathypadu (both East Godavari dt), Paderu and Gajapathinagaram (both
Visakhapatnam dt), Nandigama, Gannavaram, Tiruvuru, Gudivada and Kaikalur
(all Krishna dt), Cumbum (Prakasam dt), Sattenapalli, Tenali, Macherla and
Atchampet (all Guntur dt), Guntur, Bobbili and Gajapathinagaram (both
Vizianagaram dt), Khammam, Devarakonda, Suryapet and Ramannapet (all
Nalgonda dt), Atchampet and Kalwakuruthy (both Mahabubnagar dt),
Mahabubabad (Warangal dt), Dhone, Holagonda, Alur, Yemmaigannur and
Allagadda (all Kurnool dt), Mysore, K.R.Sagara (Mandya dt), Muli , Puttur
and Subramanya (all Dakshina Kannada dt), Karkala , Kundapur and Kota (all
Udupi dt), Udupi, Honavar, Jagalbet and Yellapur (both Uttara Kannada dt),
Shirali, Badami and Hungund (both Bagalkot dt), Belguam Airport, Gokak
(Belguam dt), Mudgal (Raichur dt), Kollegal and Yellandur (both Chamrajnagara
dt), Arkalgud and Halli Mysore (both Hassan dt), Somwarpet (Kodagu dt),
Tozhudur (Cuddalore dt), Karaikal , Nannilam (Tiruvarur dt), Mayiladuthurai
(Nagapattinam dt), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Mangalapuram and Rasipuram
(both Namakkal dt), Athur (Salem dt), Salem and Ariyalur 1 each.
19
TABLE 3
Thermodynamic parameters CAPE, CINE and TPWC during 05-08 November 2010 / 00
UTC
Date / Time Parameter Station
Karaikal Chennai Machilipatnam
05th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 0 786 2331
CINE (J/Kg) 0 -24 -201
TPWC (mm) 61.7 49.5 63.2
06th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 2016 529 1
CINE (J/Kg) -145 -43 -35
TPWC (mm) 63.3 56.5 35.8
07th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 1963 0 1
CINE (J/Kg) -34 0 0
TPWC (mm) 52.5 67.7 68.5
08th / 00 UTC CAPE (J/Kg) 0 0 2
CINE (J/Kg) 0 0 0
TPWC (mm) 48.7 64.5 85.3
CAPE : Convective Available Potential Energy
CINE : Convective Inhibition Energy
TPWC: Total Precipitable Water Content
20
Fig.1 Locations of stations / Sagar Kanya cruise were special observations were taken
21
Fig.2 IMD’s Best track of SCS ‘Jal’
22
05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(3a) (3b)
23
07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 08 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(3c) (3d)
Fig.3(a-d) Surface Synoptic analysis charts of 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC
24
05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(4a) (4b)
07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 08 NOV 2010 /00UTC
(4c) (4d)
Fig.4(a-d) 24 hr pressure departures during05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC
25
05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(5a) (5b)
07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC 08 NOV 2010 /00UTC
(5c) (5d)
Fig.5(a-d) Surface Humidity during 05-08 November 2010 / 00 UTC
26
05 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC 06 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC
(6a) (6b)
07 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC 08 NOV 2010 / 03 UTC
(6c)
Fig.6(a-d) 24 hr accumulated precipitation recorded during 05-08 November 2010 / 03 UTC
27
7(a)
28
7(b)
29
7(c)
30
7(d)
Fig.7(a-d) Plots of surface synoptic observations (3 hourly) at selected stations and in Sagar Kanya cruise (6 hourly)
during 05-08 November 2010
31
05 NOV 2010
8(a)
32
06 NOV 2010
8(b)
33
07 NOV 2010
8(c)
34
08 NOV 2010
8(d)
Fig.8(a-d) Mean upper air winds at 850, 500, 300 & 200 hPa levels during 05-08 November 2010
35
05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam
9(a)
36
06NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam
9(b)
37
07 NOV 2010
(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam
9(c)
38
8 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(i) Karaikal (ii) Chennai (Minambakkam) (iii) Machilipatnam
9(d)
Fig.9(a-d)(i-iii) Tephigrams of Karaikal, Chennai(MBK) and Machilipatnam during 00 UTC of 05-08 November 2010
39
05 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC 06 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC
(10a) (10b)
07 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC 07 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
(10c) (10d)
40
07 Nov 2010 12:00 UTC 08 Nov 2010 00:00 UTC
(10e) (10f)
Fig.10(a-f) KALPANA-1 OLR (W/m2) for 05-08/00 UTC and 07/06&12 UTC of Nov 2010
41
05 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(11a)
06 NOV 2010/00UTC
(11b)
42
07 NOV 2010 / 00 UTC
(11c)
07 NOV 2010 / 06 UTC
(11d)
43
07 NOV 2010 / 12 UTC
(11e)
08 NOV 2010 /00 UTC
(11f)
Fig.11 (a-f) KALPANA – 1, Cloud Top Temperature (Below -40 deg C) during 05-08/00
UTC and 07/06&12 UTC Nov 2010
44
(12a)
45
(12b)
46
(12c)
47
(12d)
Fig.12(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai analysis based on 05-08/00 UTC
48
(13a)
(13b)
49
(13c)
(13d)
Fig.13(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai wind forecasts over Chennai during 05-08 Nov 2010
50
(14a)
(14b)
51
(14c)
(14d)
Fig. 14(a-d) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai track forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’
52
(15a)
(15b)
Fig. 15(a&b) WRF, HPC, RMC Chennai Intensity forecasts of SCS ‘Jal’
53
Fig.16 Plot of AWS observations on 07th
/ 16UTC (around the coastal crossing time of SCS Jal)