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Field Monitoring for Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects Projects February 6 February 6 th th 2008 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

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Page 1: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Field Monitoring for LULUCF Field Monitoring for LULUCF ProjectsProjects

Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund ProjectsTraining Seminar for BioCarbon Fund ProjectsFebruary 6February 6thth 2008 2008

Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. WalkerWinrock International

Page 2: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Project Monitoring – Project Monitoring – Components:Components:

Carbon stocksCarbon stocks LeakageLeakage Project Emissions Project Emissions Project implementationProject implementation

Forest EstablishmentForest Establishment Forest Management Forest Management Project BoundaryProject Boundary

Page 3: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Project Monitoring – Project Monitoring – Goals:Goals:

Estimate GHG sequestration or avoided Estimate GHG sequestration or avoided emissions by projectemissions by project Estimate changes in carbon stocks Estimate changes in carbon stocks Estimate emissions caused by projectEstimate emissions caused by project

Overall Goal:Overall Goal: Conservatively estimate changes with low Conservatively estimate changes with low

uncertainty, minimizing errorsuncertainty, minimizing errors

Page 4: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Project MonitoringProject Monitoring

Detailed monitoring plan will need to be Detailed monitoring plan will need to be created for each component monitoredcreated for each component monitored Standard operating procedures for collectionStandard operating procedures for collection Excel data sheets and calculation toolsExcel data sheets and calculation tools Frequency of collectionFrequency of collection Tools to monitor and reduce errorTools to monitor and reduce error Protocol for data storageProtocol for data storage Project member responsible for data Project member responsible for data

collection, analysis and storagecollection, analysis and storage

Page 5: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Monitoring Project Monitoring Project ImplementationImplementation

Forest EstablishmentForest Establishment Site preparation conforms to PDDSite preparation conforms to PDD Species and planting density inline with PDDSpecies and planting density inline with PDD

Forest ManagementForest Management Cleaning and thinningCleaning and thinning FertilizationFertilization HarvestingHarvesting

Page 6: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Monitoring Carbon StocksMonitoring Carbon Stocks

Should you monitor the baseline?Should you monitor the baseline? When project starts baseline no longer existsWhen project starts baseline no longer exists

Proxy sites?Proxy sites? No proxy in avoided deforestationNo proxy in avoided deforestation Possible in FM and AR but doubles monitoring costsPossible in FM and AR but doubles monitoring costs

Monitor projectMonitor project Monitor project areaMonitor project area Monitor project carbon stocksMonitor project carbon stocks

Page 7: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

IPCC GPG Chapter 4.3IPCC GPG Chapter 4.3

Provides good practice guidance for JI and Provides good practice guidance for JI and CDM projects and includes guidance on:CDM projects and includes guidance on: defining project boundaries defining project boundaries measuring, monitoring, and estimating changes in measuring, monitoring, and estimating changes in

carbon stocks and non-COcarbon stocks and non-CO22 greenhouse gases greenhouse gases

implementing plans to measure and monitor implementing plans to measure and monitor developing quality assurance and quality control developing quality assurance and quality control

plansplans

Page 8: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International
Page 9: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)

Car

bon

(t C

/ha)

Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan BaselineBaseline

Step 1: Step 1: MEASUREMEASURE Carbon at beginning of project Carbon at beginning of project

14 t C/ha

Page 10: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)

Car

bon

(t C

/ha)

Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan BaselineBaseline

Step 1: Carbon at beginning of projectStep 1: Carbon at beginning of project Step 2: Step 2: ESTIMATEESTIMATE Carbon over time Carbon over time

E.g.: Change in Carbon StocksE.g.: Change in Carbon Stocks

Baseline:14 t C/ha

Baseline: Year 40

32 t C/ha

Page 11: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)

Car

bon

(t C

/ha)

Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan Project: Plant TreesProject: Plant Trees

Step 1: Carbon at beginning of projectStep 1: Carbon at beginning of project Step 2: Step 2: MEASUREMEASURE Carbon over time Carbon over time

Project: Year 40110 t C/ha

Baseline: Year 4032 t C/ha

Page 12: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Time (years)

Car

bon

(t C

/ha)

Measurement PlanMeasurement Plan Project: Plant TreesProject: Plant Trees

Step 1: Carbon at beginning of projectStep 1: Carbon at beginning of project Step 2: Carbon over timeStep 2: Carbon over time

40 years Net Sequestered: 110 - 32 = 78 t C/ha40 years Net Sequestered: 110 - 32 = 78 t C/ha

Project: Year 40110 t C/ha

Baseline: Year 4032 t C/ha

Page 13: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Accuracy and precisionAccuracy and precision Accuracy:Accuracy:

agreement between the agreement between the true value and repeated true value and repeated measured observations measured observations or estimationsor estimations

PrecisionPrecision illustrates the level of illustrates the level of

agreement among agreement among repeated measurements repeated measurements of the same quantityof the same quantity

Accurate but not precise

Precisebut not accurate

Accurate and Precise

Page 14: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Accurate but

imprecise

145

95

170

110

80

Average 120

95 % confidence interval

45.8

True mean of forest carbon stock = 120 t

C/ha

Page 15: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Accurate but

imprecise

Inaccurate but

precise

145 180

95 183

170 177

110 178

80 182

Average 120 180

95 % confidence interval

45.8 3.2

True mean of forest carbon stock = 120 t

C/ha

Page 16: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Accurate and

Precise

Accurate but

imprecise

Inaccurate but

precise

118 145 180

123 95 183

121 170 177

118 110 178

120 80 182

Average 120 120 180

95 % confidence interval

2.6 45.8 3.2

True mean of forest carbon stock = 120 t

C/ha

Page 17: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Developing a Developing a measurement planmeasurement plan

Define project boundary

Stratify project area

Decide which carbon pools to measure

Develop sampling design--plot type, shape, size, number, and layout

Determine measurement frequency

Page 18: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

May been different sets of ‘boundaries’ May been different sets of ‘boundaries’ in the projectin the project Project area = where participants are Project area = where participants are

doing activitiesdoing activities A/R CDM project boundary = this ONLY A/R CDM project boundary = this ONLY

contains the areas where trees will be contains the areas where trees will be planted for carbon creditsplanted for carbon credits

Forest Enrichment/Protection boundary Forest Enrichment/Protection boundary = forestry area where voluntary carbon = forestry area where voluntary carbon credits will be accountedcredits will be accounted

Define project Define project boundaryboundary

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 19: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

For accurate measuring and monitoring, For accurate measuring and monitoring, boundaries must be clearly defined from boundaries must be clearly defined from start of projectstart of project Also a requirement for project registrationAlso a requirement for project registration

Goal is to monitor that boundaries do not Goal is to monitor that boundaries do not change through project due to change through project due to encroachment, disturbanceencroachment, disturbance

Define boundaries using features on map Define boundaries using features on map or coordinates attained using a global or coordinates attained using a global positioning systempositioning system

Maintain areas in GISMaintain areas in GIS

Define project Define project boundaryboundary

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 20: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Maximize the area for carbon creditsMaximize the area for carbon credits Easy and efficient to monitor and verify Easy and efficient to monitor and verify

using GPSusing GPS Excludes areas that have little to no Excludes areas that have little to no

carbon benefitcarbon benefit Excludes areas where baseline carbon Excludes areas where baseline carbon

stocks (and leakage) are more difficult stocks (and leakage) are more difficult to estimate than the potential carbon to estimate than the potential carbon benefit warrants (e.g., villages)benefit warrants (e.g., villages)

Define project Define project boundaryboundary

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 21: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Project can vary in size: 10’s ha Project can vary in size: 10’s ha 1000’s ha1000’s ha

Project can be one contiguous block Project can be one contiguous block OR many small blocks of land spread OR many small blocks of land spread over a wide area over a wide area

One OR many landownersOne OR many landowners Only includes lands that meet Only includes lands that meet

eligibility conditionseligibility conditions

Define project Define project boundaryboundary

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 22: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Principles of monitoring Principles of monitoring carboncarbon Methods for measuring carbon credits are Methods for measuring carbon credits are

based on measuring changes in carbon based on measuring changes in carbon stocksstocks

Not practical to measure everything - so we Not practical to measure everything - so we samplesample

Sample subset of land by taking relevant Sample subset of land by taking relevant measurements of selected pool measurements of selected pool components in plotscomponents in plots

Number of plots measured predetermined Number of plots measured predetermined to ensure both to ensure both accuracyaccuracy and and precisionprecision

Page 23: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Principles of monitoring Principles of monitoring carboncarbon There is a trade-off between the desired There is a trade-off between the desired

precision level of carbon-stock estimates and precision level of carbon-stock estimates and costcost

In general, the costs will increase with:In general, the costs will increase with: Greater spatial variability of the carbon stocksGreater spatial variability of the carbon stocks The number of pools that need to be monitored; The number of pools that need to be monitored; Precision level that is targeted; Precision level that is targeted; Frequency of monitoring; Frequency of monitoring; Complexity of monitoring methods. Complexity of monitoring methods.

Stratification of the project lands into a number Stratification of the project lands into a number of relatively homogeneous units can reduce the of relatively homogeneous units can reduce the number of plots needed.number of plots needed.

Page 24: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Stratify Project AreaStratify Project Area If different areas will contain different amounts If different areas will contain different amounts

of carbon, ‘stratify’ project = divide area into of carbon, ‘stratify’ project = divide area into different ‘strata’different ‘strata’

Stratify based on factors that will affect Stratify based on factors that will affect CARBON stockCARBON stock

One stratum can be made up of one large block One stratum can be made up of one large block of land or several small blocks of land, as long of land or several small blocks of land, as long all of the blocks have similar carbon stocksall of the blocks have similar carbon stocks

Baseline strata:

Grazing land – 10,000 ha

Crop land – 8,000 ha

Not part of carbon project

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 25: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Stratify Project AreaStratify Project Area Will most likely have separate strata for Will most likely have separate strata for

baseline and monitoringbaseline and monitoring Must monitor area of each strata over projectMust monitor area of each strata over project Area and number of strata may change over Area and number of strata may change over

life of projectlife of project

Baseline strata:

Grazing land – 10,000 ha

Crop land – 8,000 has

Not part of carbon project

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Project strata:

Agroforestry

Natural forest restoration

Page 26: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Stratify Project AreaStratify Project Area Land useLand use SlopeSlope Drainage e.g. flooded, dryDrainage e.g. flooded, dry ElevationElevation Proximity to villages, townsProximity to villages, towns Age of vegetation e.g. ‘cohort’Age of vegetation e.g. ‘cohort’ Species composition, stand Species composition, stand

modelmodel

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 27: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Decide which carbon Decide which carbon pools to measurepools to measure

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Soil or Peat Carbon

AG non-tree non-woodyvegetation

Above Ground Live Trees

LitterDead wood

Belowground Live Trees (roots)

Above Ground Non-tree Woody

Wood products

Page 28: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Selection of pools depends on:Selection of pools depends on: Expected rate of changeExpected rate of change Expected magnitude and direction of changeExpected magnitude and direction of change Availability of methods, accuracy and cost of Availability of methods, accuracy and cost of

methods to measure and monitormethods to measure and monitor

For afforestation and reforestation over < For afforestation and reforestation over < 60 years it is always most economic and 60 years it is always most economic and efficient to measure live tree biomass efficient to measure live tree biomass (above and belowground) (above and belowground)

Decide which carbon Decide which carbon pools to measurepools to measure

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 29: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Decide which Carbon Decide which Carbon poolspools

MUST measure ALL pools that MUST measure ALL pools that predicted to be smaller in project predicted to be smaller in project than in baseline than in baseline

0

25

50

0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)

Car

bon

(t C

/ha)

Under project

Baseline

0

25

50

0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)

Car

bon

(t C

/ha)

Under project

Baseline

Required: Optional:

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 30: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Decide which carbon Decide which carbon pools to measurepools to measure

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Project TypeProject TypeCarbon PoolsCarbon Pools

Live BiomassLive Biomass Dead BiomassDead BiomassSoilSoil

WoodWoodTreesTrees UnderstoryUnderstory RootsRoots FineFine CoarseCoarse ProductsProducts

-Restore native forests-Restore native forests YY MM YY MM MM MM NN

-Plantations for timber-Plantations for timber YY NN YY MM MM MM YY

-Agroforestry-Agroforestry YY YY YY NN NN MM MM

-Soil carbon management-Soil carbon management NN MM MM MM NN YY NN

-Short-rotation plantations-Short-rotation plantations YY NN MM NN NN MM **

-Forest management-Forest management YY MM NN MM YY NN YY

-Reduce deforestation-Reduce deforestation YY MM YY MM MM MM YY

Y=recommended, M=maybe, N=not recommended, * Stores carbon in unburned fossil fuelsY=recommended, M=maybe, N=not recommended, * Stores carbon in unburned fossil fuels

Selection of pools varies by project typeSelection of pools varies by project type Different measuring and monitoring designs Different measuring and monitoring designs

are needed for different types of projectsare needed for different types of projects

Page 31: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design:Sampling Design:Distribution of plotsDistribution of plots

Sample units must be located Sample units must be located without bias without bias Randomly distribute sample units Randomly distribute sample units

using GISusing GIS

The entirety of the project site The entirety of the project site should be sampled should be sampled

To ensure above, location of plots To ensure above, location of plots determined prior to field workdetermined prior to field work

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 32: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Type of plotsType of plots

Permanent plotsPermanent plots Statistically more efficient for Statistically more efficient for

measurements through timemeasurements through time Permit verificationPermit verification Must mark trees to track ingrowth Must mark trees to track ingrowth

and mortalityand mortality

Temporary plotsTemporary plots Measurements made only one timeMeasurements made only one time

Preliminary dataPreliminary data

Non-tree poolsNon-tree pools

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 33: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots

Number of plots:Number of plots: Identify the desired precision level Identify the desired precision level

±10 % of the mean is most common±10 % of the mean is most common

but as low as ±20 % of the mean but as low as ±20 % of the mean could be usedcould be used

Collect Collect preliminary datapreliminary data to to estimate variability of carbon stocksestimate variability of carbon stocks

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 34: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots

Preliminary data collection:Preliminary data collection: Collect data in areas similar to what Collect data in areas similar to what

vegetation will be in your project and vegetation will be in your project and baselinebaseline

For example: collect data in:For example: collect data in: 5-10 year old forest5-10 year old forest 20-30 year old forest20-30 year old forest

Randomly locate ~10 plots within each Randomly locate ~10 plots within each stratastrata

Take field measurements using same Take field measurements using same methods will use for measurement methods will use for measurement planplan

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 35: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots

Estimate mean carbon stock and Estimate mean carbon stock and variance from preliminary datavariance from preliminary data

Calculate the required number of Calculate the required number of plots using equation or Excel plot plots using equation or Excel plot calculator filecalculator file

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 36: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots

More variable C stocks More variable C stocks more plots more plots needed for precision levelneeded for precision level

If a stratified project area requires If a stratified project area requires more plots than an unstratified area more plots than an unstratified area remove 1+ strata remove 1+ strata

If strata analyzed together If strata analyzed together C C stocks in each strata cannot be stocks in each strata cannot be reported separately but fewer plots reported separately but fewer plots needed to attain precision levelneeded to attain precision level

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 37: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Number of plotsNumber of plots

Non-tree biomass pools:Non-tree biomass pools: Above method can be usedAbove method can be used OR: # non-tree pools in proportion OR: # non-tree pools in proportion

to # tree plotsto # tree plotsFor example:For example: For every tree plot, sample:For every tree plot, sample:

Single 100 m line transect for dead Single 100 m line transect for dead woodwood

4 sub-plots for herbaceous, forest 4 sub-plots for herbaceous, forest floor, soilfloor, soil

May result in large variance, but overall May result in large variance, but overall amount small in comparison to tree amount small in comparison to tree carbon stockcarbon stock

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 38: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Achieving Precision – Noel Achieving Precision – Noel KempffKempff

81

14 40

100

200

300

400

500

0 10 20 30

Precision Level +/- %

Num

ber o

f plo

ts

452

Page 39: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Cost of Precision – Noel Cost of Precision – Noel KempffKempff

050

100150200250300350

Mon

itorin

g C

ost

($10

00s)

5% 10% 20% 30%Precision Level

VariableFixed

Page 40: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Shape of plotsShape of plots

TreesTrees Large trees:Large trees: few, very spread outfew, very spread out Small trees:Small trees: many, close togethermany, close together

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 41: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Shape of plotsShape of plots

Nested plotsNested plots efficient for regenerating forests with efficient for regenerating forests with

trees growing into new size classestrees growing into new size classes Plots can be either circular or squarePlots can be either circular or square ~10 stems per strata ‘rule of thumb’ ~10 stems per strata ‘rule of thumb’

to determine plot sizeto determine plot size

Single size plotsSingle size plots Requires lower expertiseRequires lower expertise can be efficient where trees will be planted can be efficient where trees will be planted

and will be single-agedand will be single-aged

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 42: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design:Sampling Design:Shape of plotsShape of plots

The schematic diagram below represents a three-nest circular sampling plot.

Large plot –

radius 20 m, trees > 50 cm dbh

Intermediate plot –

radius 14 m, trees 20-50 cm dbh

Small plot –

radius 4 m, trees 5-20 cm dbh

Page 43: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Carbon pool measurement Carbon pool measurement methodsmethods

Develop standard methods to Develop standard methods to collect carbon pool collect carbon pool measurementsmeasurements

Develop standard methods to Develop standard methods to calculate carbon stocks, calculate carbon stocks, according to approved according to approved methodologymethodology

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 44: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sampling Design: Sampling Design: Carbon pool measurement Carbon pool measurement methodsmethods

Project must verify existing Project must verify existing allometric equations or volume allometric equations or volume and BEF equationsand BEF equations

Can use allometric equations for Can use allometric equations for one stratum, volume+BEF for one stratum, volume+BEF for another stratumanother stratum

Alternatively, may need to create Alternatively, may need to create local equationslocal equations

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 45: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Frequency of Frequency of measurementmeasurement

For CDM verification and For CDM verification and certification must occur every five certification must occur every five yearsyears

It is therefore logical to re-measure It is therefore logical to re-measure at this timeat this time

However, for slowly changing pools However, for slowly changing pools such as soil it will be necessary to such as soil it will be necessary to measure less frequentlymeasure less frequently

Define Project Boundary

Stratify

Which carbon pools?

Sampling design

Measurement frequency

Page 46: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Field Measurement Techniques

Page 47: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Carbon vs BiomassCarbon vs Biomass

Generally:Generally:

Carbon = 50% of BiomassCarbon = 50% of Biomass

Page 48: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Create PlotCreate Plot Install permanent measuring and Install permanent measuring and

monitoring plots in a standard designmonitoring plots in a standard design Permanently mark plot center and locate with a Permanently mark plot center and locate with a

GPSGPS

Plots marked with rebar and PVC, trees marked with aluminum nails and tags

Page 49: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - tree biomasstree biomass

In each strata, measure In each strata, measure DBH of appropriate size DBH of appropriate size treestrees

DBH measured at 1.3 m DBH measured at 1.3 m above the ground with a above the ground with a DBH tapeDBH tape

Page 50: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - tree biomasstree biomass– Allometric – Allometric equationsequations

Local regression equations in literatureLocal regression equations in literature Verify applicability of equation(s) through Verify applicability of equation(s) through

limited destructive sampling or volume limited destructive sampling or volume and wood density estimationsand wood density estimations

If no equations exist, need to harvest and If no equations exist, need to harvest and measure a representative sample of measure a representative sample of trees to develop equationstrees to develop equations

Page 51: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - tree biomass– Allometric tree biomass– Allometric equationsequations

1008060402000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Ab

oveg

rou

nd

bio

mass

(kg

/tre

e)

Diameter (cm)

Temperate hardwoods-34 species

r2 = 0.99N = 454

(Schroeder et al. 1997) 100080060040020000

100

200

300

TropicsTemperateBorealModel

Aboveground biomass density (Mg/ha)

Root

bio

mass d

en

sit

y (

Mg

/ha)

RBD = exp[-1.085+0.926 ln (ABD)]r^2 = 0.83; N = 151

Page 52: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International
Page 53: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Estimate carbon pools –Estimate carbon pools –Dead woodDead wood

Dead wood can be a Dead wood can be a significant component of significant component of biomass poolsbiomass pools Particularly in mature Particularly in mature

forests – not eligible in forests – not eligible in first reporting periodfirst reporting period

For standing dead trees For standing dead trees estimate biomass using estimate biomass using regression equations or regression equations or volume from detailed volume from detailed measurementsmeasurements

Page 54: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Estimate carbon pools–Estimate carbon pools–Understory/herbaceous Understory/herbaceous vegetationvegetation

Use small framesUse small frames Frame placed on Frame placed on

groundground Cut all herbaceous Cut all herbaceous

vegetation, remove vegetation, remove leaf litter, within the leaf litter, within the frameframe

Place in new Place in new location on repeat location on repeat measurementsmeasurements

Aluminum or PVC frame of ~60 cm2 is placed on the ground

Page 55: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - Mineral soil carbonMineral soil carbon

Expose mineral soil Expose mineral soil surface surface

Collect 4 samples, mix and Collect 4 samples, mix and sieve for C analysissieve for C analysis

Collect samples for bulk Collect samples for bulk density in each plotdensity in each plot

Page 56: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Estimate carbon pools - Estimate carbon pools - Mineral soil carbonMineral soil carbon

How deep to sample?How deep to sample? trade-off among magnitude of change expected, trade-off among magnitude of change expected,

detectability of change, precision, and costdetectability of change, precision, and cost

How many samples?How many samples? relates to desired precision and costrelates to desired precision and cost unlike trees where change can be measured directly unlike trees where change can be measured directly

(measure same trees through time), a new soil (measure same trees through time), a new soil sample is collected each timesample is collected each time results in decreased precision of change in carbon stocks results in decreased precision of change in carbon stocks

for soilfor soil

Page 57: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Monitoring Project Monitoring Project EmissionsEmissions

Tracking:Tracking: Vehicle and machinery useVehicle and machinery use Use of fertilizersUse of fertilizers Use of fireUse of fire Incidental firesIncidental fires Livestock emissionsLivestock emissions

Page 58: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Monitoring LeakageMonitoring Leakage

All projectsAll projects Monitoring vehicle useMonitoring vehicle use

Some projectsSome projects Activity shiftingActivity shifting

Tracking individualsTracking individuals Tracking livestockTracking livestock Tracking wood fuel useTracking wood fuel use

All require good organization and good All require good organization and good database skillsdatabase skills

Page 59: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Minimizing Project ErrorsMinimizing Project Errors

Errors will arise through:Errors will arise through: Poorly chosen methodsPoorly chosen methods Poorly applied methodsPoorly applied methods Insufficient samplingInsufficient sampling

Errors can be predicted and minimized to Errors can be predicted and minimized to decrease project costs and maximize decrease project costs and maximize claimable creditsclaimable credits

Page 60: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Sources of error in Sources of error in estimating carbon poolsestimating carbon pools

For estimating carbon stocks, three main For estimating carbon stocks, three main sources of error are:sources of error are: Sampling error—number and selection of plots to Sampling error—number and selection of plots to

represent the population of interestrepresent the population of interest Measurement error —e.g. errors in field Measurement error —e.g. errors in field

measurements of tree diameters, laboratory measurements of tree diameters, laboratory analysis of soil samplesanalysis of soil samples

Regression error — e.g. based on use of regression Regression error — e.g. based on use of regression equations to convert diameters to biomass equations to convert diameters to biomass

All these sources can be quantified and All these sources can be quantified and “added”“added”

Page 61: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

UncertaintyUncertainty

Two methods for determining uncertainty in Two methods for determining uncertainty in estimatesestimates Error PropagationError Propagation

Monte Carlo Analysis Monte Carlo Analysis (commercial software available)(commercial software available) Complex but should be used if there are correlations Complex but should be used if there are correlations

between datasets or if error (>100 %)between datasets or if error (>100 %) Correlations will exist between various measured carbon Correlations will exist between various measured carbon

pools and between estimates at different timespools and between estimates at different times

22

21 %95%95%95 TimeTime CICICITotal

e.g.

Page 62: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Quality Quality Assurance/Quality Assurance/Quality Control plansControl plans Monitoring requires provisions for quality assurance Monitoring requires provisions for quality assurance

(QA) and quality control (QC) to be implemented via a (QA) and quality control (QC) to be implemented via a QA/QC planQA/QC plan

= How to guarantee that methods are applied correctly= How to guarantee that methods are applied correctly The plan should become part of project documentation The plan should become part of project documentation

and cover the following procedures:and cover the following procedures: collecting reliable field measurements; collecting reliable field measurements; verifying methods used to collect field data;verifying methods used to collect field data; verifying data entry and analysis techniques; verifying data entry and analysis techniques; data maintenance and archiving. data maintenance and archiving.

Page 63: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

QA/QC field QA/QC field measurementsmeasurements Develop a set of Standard Operating Procedures Develop a set of Standard Operating Procedures

(SOPs)(SOPs) Thorough training of all field crews in procedures, Thorough training of all field crews in procedures,

followed by:followed by: Hot Checks - supervisor visits crew in field and Hot Checks - supervisor visits crew in field and

verifies measurementsverifies measurements Cold Checks - supervisor revisits plots after the Cold Checks - supervisor revisits plots after the

departure of crew and reviews recorded departure of crew and reviews recorded measurementsmeasurements

Blind Checks - supervisor re-measures a proportion Blind Checks - supervisor re-measures a proportion of plots with no knowledge of data recorded by crewof plots with no knowledge of data recorded by crew

Page 64: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

QA/QC for laboratory QA/QC for laboratory measurements, data measurements, data entry, and archivingentry, and archiving

Laboratory measurementsLaboratory measurements check equipment and measurement with check equipment and measurement with

known quantity samples added blindlyknown quantity samples added blindly

Data entryData entry test of out of range valuestest of out of range values recheck proportion for errorsrecheck proportion for errors

ArchivingArchiving off-site storage of dataoff-site storage of data

Page 65: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Team at Winrock InternationalTeam at Winrock International Including Sandra Brown, Ken MacDicken, Including Sandra Brown, Ken MacDicken,

David Shoch, Matt Delaney and John David Shoch, Matt Delaney and John KadyszewskiKadyszewski

Funding agenciesFunding agencies Including TNC, USAID, USFS, UNDP and Including TNC, USAID, USFS, UNDP and

World BankWorld Bank

Page 66: Field Monitoring for LULUCF Projects Training Seminar for BioCarbon Fund Projects February 6 th 2008 Timothy Pearson and Sarah M. Walker Winrock International

Thank You!Thank You!

For more information see:For more information see: http://www.winrock.org/Ecosystems/tools.asphttp://www.winrock.org/Ecosystems/tools.asp

Or contact us:Or contact us: [email protected]@winrock.org [email protected]@winrock.org