fighting insurgencies

8/7/2019 Fighting Insurgencies

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Confidential Material : Not for public distribution, circulation or sale outside the BrassTacksauthorized end users.

2008 BrassTacks. All rights reserved.

This document is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, or transmitted, inany form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the written permission of BrassTacks.

The information in this document is furnished for informational use only. Great care has beentaken to maintain the accuracy of the information contained in this document. However,neither BrassTacks nor the authors can be held responsible for errors or for any consequencesarising from the use of the information contained herein.

[email protected]

By Zaid Hamid

Fighting Insurgencies: Religious

& Sectarian Dynamics

2008 BrassTacks. All Rights Reserved
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Confidential Material : Not for public distribution, circulation or sale outside the BrassTacksauthorized end users.

2008 BrassTacks. All rights reserved.

This document is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, or transmitted, inany form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the written permission of BrassTacks.

The information in this document is furnished for informational use only. Great care has beentaken to maintain the accuracy of the information contained in this document. However,neither BrassTacks nor the authors can be held responsible for errors or for any consequencesarising from the use of the information contained herein.

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Fighting Insurgencies: Religious and SectarianDynamics

Pakistan is in a state of war, fighting an asymmetric high intensity war within its ownborders against an Indian backed terrorist insurgency with a religious facade, which isbased in the remote tribal regions bordering Afghanistan, and is waging a ruthless,decentralized war against the State as well as the civilian population in the mainland,urban environment. In the last 3 years alone, on the average, Pakistan has suffered asuicide attack, a bomb explosion, or an attack on the security forces, almost on dailybasis. Hundreds of the finest officers and soldiers, as well as thousands of civilianshave given their lives in a war, which has cast a staggering toll on Pakistan's economyand society. At least 3 serving Army Generals, many Brigadiers and other seniormilitary officers have died in ambushes, suicide attacks and assaults by the insurgent

militants on military and civil installations in major cities of Pakistan. Regionaloffices of Pakistan's military led Intelligence agency, ISI have been attacked. EvenGHQ was attacked for an audacious attempt at targeting military leadership. At onepoint in Swat, almost 2.5 million people had to leave their homes in a mass migrationto allow Pakistan army to conduct military operations in an area larger than England.Cantonment and sensitive areas of Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore and Rawalpindi givethe looks of cities under fortress defenses. Universities, hospitals, hotels, bazaars,funeral ceremonies, Masjids, schools none have escaped the most ruthless andbloody war by the TTP terrorists. Till 2007 and 2008, the TTP was wreaking its reignof terror almost unchecked, with large regions of Swat valley and FATA under theirinfluence. But then the army began to put a clamp on this new form of 4th generation

war, although the Pakistan army was not initially trained for this kind of warfarementally, emotionally, militarily or logistically. Fighting a high intensity, counterinsurgency war inside its own borders, in an urban environment, within the cities, wasnot the form of warfare any army would want to fight. Despite the lack of anyprevious experience to fight such a war, Pakistan army performed with stunningsuccess, breaking the back of the insurgency in Swat, capturing the South Waziristanbastion of the terrorists and taking back almost all regions of FATA, which werepreviously under the terrorists' control. However, it's not over yet and the warcontinues in remote tribal regions as well as in the cities where insurgents regularlycause chaos, assassinations and bomb attacks. The centre of gravity for the terroristsis in Afghanistan from where they get their weapons, money and are provided

sanctuaries backed by CIA, Afghan regime and Indian RAW. So far, Pakistan hasbeen fighting a reactive war within its own borders and has left the safe havens of theinsurgents untouched inside Afghanistan.

On another axis, on a lesser intensity, CIA, RAW and Afghan RAMA have stirred upanother insurgency in Baluchistan by supporting the Secular Marxist PakistaniBaluch Separatists, seeking to break Baluchistan away from Pakistan. The mode of operations against the State include, blowing up gas pipelines, destroying power


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cables and State infrastructures as well as attacking security forces and assassinatingnon-Baluch settlers from the rest of the country. Baluchistan constitutes of 42% areaof Pakistan but comprises of only 4% of population divided between Pashtuns,Baluchis, Makranis, Brahwis and Sindhis. With only a small segment of Baluchfalling under the spell of armed insurgency and also due to the remoteness of the

region, the situation in Baluchistan, due to BLA/BRA militancy is not as critical as itis due to the TTP insurgency but still, it is a serious menace. Military has not beenused in Baluchistan as yet and only Para military forces, Police and local militiashave been performing the security duties.

Apart from the two, above mentioned, active armed insurgencies, there are secularpolitical parties which have armed wings and also have separatist agendas and havebeen involved in urban violence, especially in Karachi. Both MQM and ANPmaintain armed militias in the city and though they hold positions in the governmentalso, they are waging a ruthless and brutal war of assassinations and counterassassinations on the streets of Karachi. Both MQM and ANP are fondly close to

India and reject the creation of Pakistan as a State and have dismissed the Islamicideology of Pakistan. ANP especially had been instrumental since 1947 to dismemberPakistan on ethnic Pashtun lines. Lately, MQM and its leader Altaf Hussein has alsobeen vocal against the creation of Pakistan and has even suggested reunification,basically suggesting that India should take control of Pakistan! In future, both theseparties could become a major threat and indulge in active insurgencies, especially inKarachi and urban Sindh. For now, while they remain in power politically and areallies of the PPP government, they are also playing the assassination game in a turf war and are keeping their armed wings as insurance against any government ormilitary operation against them in the future.

Both these axes of insurgencies religious and secular have their own dynamicsand demand separate analysis and response on psychological, political and militaryplains. The total and complete failure of the Pakistani government, media and civillaw enforcement managers, can be judged from the fact that despite facing anexistential threat from armed insurgencies, Pakistan still does not have an anti-terrorism policy. The Parliament has not passed a single resolution on terrorism in thelast 10 years and the composite collapse of the judicial system is evident from the factthat not a single terrorist has been sentenced to death in the last 10 years either. Thesystem has simply collapsed under the pressure, threats and the challenges, and theentire burden has fallen on the Pakistan army and armed forces to rid the country of these cancers. This is precisely the reason why this menace of terrorism andinsurgency is still haunting Pakistan. Despite applying correct and precise militarypressure, there is complete lack of political, moral, legal and religious support for thearmed law enforcement. Pakistan desperately and urgently needs a national anti-terrorism policy under a larger, national security strategy.

What follows is such an attempt, showcasing the approach for Pakistan's policymakers, to redefine Pakistan's National Security Strategy by analyzing the historical,ideological and military dimensions of the threats faced by Pakistan.


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Background:

Fighting insurgencies in urban environment remains one of the most tiresome andchallenging tasks for any country and the task has gotten more intensively complex in

the contemporary world, particularly after 9/11. The phenomenon of fighting aninsurgent movement demands a multi-dimensional solution focusing on the multipleaspects of whole restive milieu, with a pre-determined equilibrium of all the tactics of counter insurgency techniques that would be utilized while eradicating the problem,for example, understanding the conflict, identifying the root causes of the problem,choosing the most appropriate state tool to eradicate the root cause and mostimportantly calculating the need, time, magnitude and impact of military force to beapplied. Apart from these elements, a successful counter insurgency strategy demandsa dedicated, committed and sincere leadership, capable of taking various policy levelinitiatives, showing courage during the crisis and exploiting opportunities createdduring active counter insurgency operations, through governance and administrative

measures to win hearts and minds of insurgents and their unarmed sympathizers inthe area of conflict.

On the other hand, a sustained armed insurgency always relies on the support of localmasses and foreign aid in terms of money and weapon supply, planning, logisticsupport and training.

Traditionally, insurgent movements originate to fight for protection of economic andpolitical rights within a state but the situation in Pakistan is a lot more obscure thanthis, as insurgencies in Pakistan are multifaceted, have been launched under variouspretexts having both natural and artificial causes and supported by hostile forces as

well. Pakistan, when incarnated as a counter insurgency case study, is a uniquecountry in modern times where multiple insurgencies and internal conflicts are of heterogeneous nature with diversity in root causes, timeline, political dynamics andsupport bases but are aggressively agglomerating into a single complex war againstthe state, due to various internal and external factors.

Historically, Pakistan had some problems of low intensity insurgency in Baluchistanprovince since early 1970's and sectarian divide among various religiousorganizations was also present since 1980's. However, the Pakistani state never facedany existential threat due to these fault lines. Flawed and faulty anti-terrorismmeasures, devised by Islamabad in strategically changed post 9/11 scenario, proved a

catalyst for religious and secular insurgencies as well as sectarian violence inPakistan, as it not only intensified Baluch insurgency but also provided India and CIAwith an opportunity to launch another insurgency in North West of Pakistan, withextreme brutality and to penetrate into the ranks of sectarian and militantorganizations in Pakistan. Due to Islamabad's persistence with same failed policiesdespite the change of government in late 2007, Pakistan is facing an unparalleledchallenge of internal security. Recently ethnic and linguistic target killings, in


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Baluchistan and Karachi, involving MQM and ANP have added a new dimension tothese prolonged insurgencies.

To devise a workable and pragmatic policy to address this complex, internal securitychallenge, Pakistan would have to revise its foreign and interior policies, which need

a complete overhaul now. But that would be only possible after a careful examinationof every aspect of this highly composite problem, by fragmenting its variousamalgamated aspects so that this problem can be comprehended in context of nationalsecurity.

To begin with, it would be prudent to analyze and categorize the insurgencies andinsurgent groups, militant organizations and radical entities, working against the stateof Pakistan, by digging into history to locate the time and origins of these insurgentmovements as well as their ideological bearings.

History and Root Cause of Insurgencies:

In order to get a clue about why multiple insurgencies are prevailing in Pakistandespite successive military operations, it is essential to investigate the origin of radicalization of different sectarian factions in the Pakistani society, militant groups,foreign links of these organizations and the impact of 9/11 on various militantorganizations and their operations on political and sectarian dimensions.Understanding the politico-religious mind set in Muslim world before the start of Afghan war and the impact of latter on former, is vital and the key to unlock thehistoric padlocks on the ideological and intellectual struggle for political Islam in theMuslim world and how some of its factions turned into a violent and aggressivedemon, even for Muslim societies by the end of the Afghan war. The whole conflict

and the present environment with respect to politico-religious insurgencies revolvearound this dilemmatic ideal of Islam in Muslim world.

The extreme anger and sense of hopelessness, which has dominated the militantMuslim minds is due to genuine injustices, atrocities and cruelties of the dominantWest, Tyrannical and Fascist style regimes in the Muslim world and due to the lack of sense of direction in the Muslim masses around the world.

If we see the political profile in the Middle East, there are some Arab regimes, whichare equally tyrannical as Israel and India. Many countries have had the same leaderssince decades. There are no rights of speech against the government, no fair elections,

no independent press, no opposition, compromised judiciary and brutal Police forces.Just the party or clan or the leader rules with an iron hand. These regimes have theworst possible record of abuse of human rights to their name and continue eventoday.

The first Major Muslim response in the Middle East was in early fifties, when awhole new wave of enlightened modern Muslim politico-religious leaders emerged inEgypt, Pakistan and other Middle Eastern countries. Akhwan-ul-Muslimeen


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originated in Egypt under the leadership of Hasan Banna and Syed Qutub. Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) appealed to the modern Muslim mind in universities and colleges of Pakistan, under the guidance of Moulana Maudoodi.

The Arab world was facing the great socialist revolution under the guidance of

Jamaal Abdul Nasir and Arab nationalism was a very strong factor in the ME. ButAkhwan rapidly spread its ideology of political Islam, which became a rallying pointfor young Muslims in the Arab world. The response of the Arab regimes was ruthlessand outright cruel. Instead of challenging and confronting the young Islamistsintellectually and ideologically, a policy of decimation was adopted by the Arabgovernments. Akhwan was banned and its leaders jailed, tortured and killed. SyedQutub was hanged in Egypt in the 60's and he became a martyr of the cause.

The destruction and persecution of Akhwan-ul-Muslimeen as a vibrating politicalforce in the Middle East in the 60's and 70's, left the young Muslims with no alternatepolitical forum or platform where their thoughts on State, government and policies

could be defined in the modern world. The best of their leaders were hanged and theremaining were only blind followers raging with anger, revenge and sense of helplessness. They are still around and often vent their anger in various violent andradical, though isolated, acts like assassination of Sadaat, tourist massacre of Luxar,taking over of Kaab'a in 1979, first car bombing of world trade center in earlynineties etc. But still, reactionary terrorism, as a weapon of political statement, wasnot adopted as a policy by any group anywhere in the Muslim world till the early90's.

Overall, during that era, the general pattern in Muslim political movements in theArab world reflected a defeatist and angry, reactionary mindset. They had goodintentions and were ritually practicing Muslims but devoid of any finer vision,wisdom or logic. Their ideology of Political Islam was without any mature and longterm planning for future reconciliation, peace or offering alternate sustainablesolutions. The anger of some of the cadre had turned into outright violence andcruelty at their helplessness to change anything around them. The weak role modelscould not keep the effects of extremism and sectarianism away from pristineprinciples, and slowly almost all Muslim groups and parties degenerated intodecadence and petty politics and sometimes, even violence. This was the state in theArab world when the Afghan Jihad started in 1979; then the whole scenario changedrapidly.

In Pakistan, after the death of Maulana Maudoodi, JI never produced any leader of stature or vision and began to decay and degenerate into secular politics. ThePakistani Islamists were more balanced and open than their Arab counterparts, as inPakistan there was never any government even comparable to the tyrannical regimesthat exist in the ME. Open dialogue and freedom of expression in Pakistan did notproduce that radical behavior which we see in Arab countries; then came the year,1979.


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Three phenomenal and historic events took place around 1979-80.

1. Iranian Revolution took place Giving rise to Shia militant Islam

2. Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan giving rise to Sunni militancy in the

Muslim world.

3. Iran-Iraq war broke out Giving rise to Shia-Sunni, Arab-Persian conflict inthe Muslim world.

These regional events during 1979-80 eras played a decisive and critical role inredefining the national, regional and global politics and strategic affairs. Though allthese incidents took place outside the Pakistani borders but the impact was most vividwithin the Pakistani society. All dimensions of militancy Sectarian, Politico-Religious and Secular, emerged and flourished during this era in Pakistan as aspillover effect of these three game changing events.

Iranian Revolution of (1979) and Iran Iraq War (1980 to 1989)

The Iranian revolution played a critical role in Shiiteuprising in Pakistan as well. As Iran is predominately aShiite society, it adopted Shiite version of Islam as itsofficial religion after the revolution of April 1979.

Pakistani society comprises of two main sectarianfactions: Shiite and Sunnis. 84% of Muslim populationfollows Sunni version of Islamic laws in religious

matters while some 12% belongs to Shiite school of thought. This sectarian divide predates more than 1000years back in history and Pakistan had inherited it atthe time of its creation in 1947. Though this sectariandivide was there in the society but it never was aninternal security problem until 1979, a year which not only changed the socialoutlook of Pakistani society but also altered the security profile of the region in lateryears.

The Shiite influence began to expand in Pakistan and Afghanistan after the Iranianrevolution through supporting and mobilizing Shiite community in Pakistan for a

mirror revolution in the country. In Pakistan, with a Sunni dominated state, this wasperceived as an Iranian attempt to expand its political and sectarian footprint in theregion. Consequently, opposing factions and sects also started to get support againstShiite ideology from Iraq and other gulf states. The Iranian revolution and the Arab-Persian / Sunni-Shia war spilled into Pakistan.

Sectarian Sunni militant organizations like SSP (Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan) i.e. Armyof Companions of the Prophet (pbuh) emerged during this era of Afghan Jihad in


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early 80's. On the other hand, Iran was supporting Shiite organizations like TNFJ(Tehreek-i-Nifaz' e Fiqa-e-Jafaria i.e. movement for the implementation of ShiaLaws) in Pakistan and also the Shiite groups of the Afghan resistance. Shiites alsohad their version of militant sectarian outfit on the pattern of SSP, known as Sipah-e-Muhammed Pakistan (SMP). Both these sectarian militant outfits SSP and SMP

later fought bloody wars within the Pakistani society in 80's and 90's and continue todo so, even to this day despite being banned by the government.

In this regard, Pakistan paid a very heavy price of having brotherly relations withboth Arab and Iranian camps. Pakistan became a bloody battleground for a proxy warbetween two opposing sects.

Russian invasion of Afghanistan and Afghan Jihad (1979 to 1992)

The Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was the single most influential eventwhich changed the global strategic paradigm altogether as well as Pakistan's national

security landscape, in terms of sectarian and religious violence.

Threatened by aggressive Soviet designs, Pakistan decided to help the Afghanresistance against the invading red army. Islamabad's decision to fight against Sovietsin Afghanistan was taken as announcement of Jihad by Muslim youths across theglobe and particularly inside Pakistan.

Afghan resistance or the six party Mujahideen alliance based in Pakistan was purely aSunni military alliance of Afghans against the Soviets. The eight Shia Afghan partieswere based in Tehran. Even the Afghan resistance was divided on sectarian linesbetween Pakistan and Iran.

But for Sunni Muslims, Afghan Jihad became the first practical focal point for everyMuslim movement in the world to vent their anger against a super power. Arabsfound it an easy path to Paradise and flocked in thousands to fight along withAfghans. Their romantic dream of an Islamic Khilafat was the prime mover increating a strong moral legitimacy for Afghan Jihad in the Arab movements. Theycreated personalities and figures with almost cult followings. Ustad Sayyaf was to bethe next Khilafa and Dr. Abdullah Azzam was the kingpin of Islamic victory over all infidels starting from Afghanistan.

Every Sunni Muslim movement in the world from North Africa, America, Eastern

Europe, Far East and Central Asia sent their cadre for training. The Philippinemilitant group Abu Sayyaf is named after Ustad Sayyaf for its links with theAfghan group, sponsored by Arabs in the Afghan Jihad. For the first time the Arabmilitants emerged as major players in a war against infidels. The amount of money,resources and assets, which flowed into the Afghan war from Arab connections, isalmost comparable to the total aid given by UN and US during the Afghan war!There were almost 20,000 Arab and non-Afghan casualties during the Afghan warfrom all over the world.


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focused purely on Kashmir and its liberation from India. The resistance againstIndian occupation started immediately after Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in1988 and many fighters from the Afghan battle fronts decided to enter Kashmirthrough the disputed and porous line of control between Pakistan and India. Thesegroups were not global jihadists nor had any terrorist or violent agenda against any

other country except to join the legitimate freedom struggle of Kashmir againstIndian occupation.

Radicalization of Arab and Foreign Militants in Post Afghan WarEra 1990 to 1996

Most of the Arab fighters who returned back to their native countries were arrested bytheir respective governments and hanged by the dozens. There was no way out forthese desperate groups. A huge contingent landed in Sudan, where a much bettergovernment existed under the command of General Basheer, who took religiousguidance from Dr. Hassan Turabi, and ex-Akhwan leader and a friend of Dr.

Abdullah Azzam.

Sudan invited all Afghan veteran Arabs who wanted to leave Afghanistan. TheAfghan chapter was effectively closed for these Arabs. Among all those who landedin Sudan was Osama Bin Laden, known only as an ordinary Arab fighter but with lotsof money and good family connections. He had already made his mark during theAfghan war by building tunnels and deep caves bringing in the experience of hisfamily construction business in Saudi Arabia. Apart from that, there was nothingextraordinary about him. His lavish spending of money on poor Arab comrades didbring fame to him among the Arabs, who were now looking for an alternateleadership after the death of mainstream leaders during Afghan Jihad. Arabs need

religious personality cults and are good at creating them even if they do not have agenuine one.

The Arabs returned to Afghanistan almost withthe emergence of Taliban in 1996 after theformer were kicked out of Sudan due to USpressure. Dr. Turabi was also not getting alongwell with General Basheer and finally Dr. Turabiwas arrested as well. To put pressure on Sudan toexpel these militants to Afghanistan, US carriedout missile strikes in the country. Hence, Arab

fighters lost all sympathy in Sudan. This is veryinteresting to note that it was US desire that theseArab fighters be expelled from Sudan towardsAfghanistan. Special flights were arranged whichrefueled in Dubai right under the nose of the CIAand then they landed in Jalalabad. No attemptswere made by the US or the Arab regimes to block or seize these wanted terroristsenroute. The entire movement of so called Al-Qaeda was orchestrated, planned and


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executed by CIA. Afghanistan was once again to become their base, but this timewith a vengeance. Now these Arab fighters were a compromised lot penetrated byIsraeli, CIA and Arab intelligence assets for creating the future bogey of MuslimTerrorism. Seeds f or 9/11 and post 9/11 wars in the 21st century within the Muslimworld were sown.

It is again interesting to note that during the Taliban era, US never demanded thatOsama and his gangs be expelled from Afghanistan nor Taliban were accused of supporting any global terrorism. In fact, US were engaging Taliban in high levelnegotiations to construct TAP gas pipeline project (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, andPakistan). The American company UNICOL was negotiating on behalf of the USgovernment. Taliban delegations used to visit US on a regular basis. Taliban werethen the blue eyed boys of the US government and the oil cartels. Around 1998, thenegotiations between the two broke down and Taliban refused to give the contract tothe American company opting for an Argentinean company Bridas instead. That wasthe moment when a policy decision was taken in the white house to replace the

Taliban regime.From now on, US would wage global media and information wars against Talibanprojecting them as villains. It is again very interesting to note that the man whoreplaced Mullah Omar as the President of Afghanistan was the same man who wasnegotiating with Taliban on behalf of the Americans as UNICOL consultant HamidKarzai!

Taliban had contained the activities of Osama and his gang. He was there as a guestbut not allowed to conduct his operations anywhere in the world. Taliban also hadclosest relations with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and some Gulf States and were notwilling to allow Osama to spoil their foreign relations. Not a single act of terrorismhas been attributed to Taliban or Osama's gangs during this era. Taliban did notexport their version anywhere in the world. There was total peace in Pakistan exceptfor occasional local sectarian violence or some political unrest in Karachi.

The Taliban Era 1996 to 2001:

As far as external and internal security of Pakistan is concerned, Taliban era inAfghanistan was the most peaceful time for Pakistan. Since the creation of Pakistanin 1947, Afghanistan had been the most hostile country for Pakistan after India.Throughout the 60's, 70's, 80's and the early 90's, the pro-Soviet regimes in Kabul

also aligned themselves with India, hence allowing the KGB, Khad and RAW to usethe Afghan soil to foment insurgencies, separatism and violence inside Pakistan. InPakistan, Awami National Party in frontier province wanted to create Pashtunistan, aPashtun land carved out of Pakistan. In Baluchistan few Baluch Sardars from Marri,Bugti, Mengal tribes aligned themselves with Soviets and Indians to liberateBaluchistan.


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In the early 70's, government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had to fight an anti insurgencywar in Baluchistan and Bhutto also filed treason cases against ANP for trying todismember Pakistan. It is ironic that the same separatists now rule Baluchistan andFrontier province and are hell bent on their same sinister agenda while PPP rules inIslamabad. The role of the Soviets has now been replaced with the Americans. Rest

of the separatists' agenda against Pakistan remains same.

During the Afghan Jihad of the 80's and after the defeat of the Soviets, the dream of Pashtunistan and Free Baluchistan was shattered. Kabul was captured by theMujahideen in 1992, and after four years of civil war between various Mujahideengroups, the Taliban captured Kabul in 1996.

Despite their harshness in managing their affairs within Afghanistan, Taliban'sforeign policy towards Pakistan was most suitable and peaceful for Pakistan'snational security for the following reasons:

Taliban being strongly anti-Indians, eliminated the Indian influence fromAfghanistan after decades of Indian presence in the country. Indians could notuse Afghanistan to backstab Pakistan now.

Taliban eliminated all bases and training camps of Baluch separatists,basically killing the Baluch insurgency in Pakistan.

Taliban kept Osama Bin Laden and his group in check, not allowing them tocreate problems for Pakistan. There was no TTP and no insurgency againstPakistan in the tribal regions.

In the absence of US, Soviet and Indian elements in Afghanistan, the idea of Pashtunistan was also killed, isolating the Pakistani Pashtun separatists withinPakistan, without any support base in Afghanistan for the first time since1947. ANP was an isolated defeated group in Pakistan.

Taliban respected the territorial integrity of Pakistan and never raised theissue of Durand line or any border disputes.

Not a single suicide bombing, bomb attack or act of violence was reported inPakistan from any insurgent group either religious or secular during theTaliban era. Afghanistan had become the strategic depth for Pakistan.

Taliban eliminated drugs from Afghanistan, choking the drug supply inPakistan and also the money supply of Baluch and other separatist elements inPakistan.

Pakistan had no deployment of troops on the Afghan side and the entire focusof Pakistan was against India and on Kashmir.


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Afghanistan acted as the strategic depth for Pakistan with almost all of Afghanistan dependent upon Pakistan for trade, food supplies, clothes, fuel,printing, industrial and technological support. Pakistani currency wasacceptable at all Afghan shops and Afghans would scramble to get PakistaniID cards and passports. Geo-economically and geo-culturally, Afghanistan

had become an informal province of Pakistan.

Post Taliban Era 2001 till date:

Then in 2001, Taliban, too were overthrown by US, and Ahmad Shah Masood wasassassinated by pro-Taliban Arabs. Afghanistan once again came under foreignoccupation and they installed remnants of Masood's men and few imported Afghanslike Karzai, to replace the clerical regime. Another war of resistance has begun in thecountry. Taliban as well as Haqqani and Hekmatyar have once again becomeresistance fighters, fighting against another foreign army and against their former

allies during Soviet occupation. Now, Taliban, Haqqani and Hekmatyar haveemerged as allies for common cause of survival. There is total chaos in Afghanistan.Afghanistan government is the most hostile regime against Pakistan after India andIsrael. Despite some increase in trade, Afghanistan has become staging post to spreaddeath and destruction in Pakistan.

Since 9/11, Pakistan has emerged as the netloser in the whole episode. The pro-Masoodelements controlling power in Kabul andHamid Karzai, remain staunchly anti-Pakistanand have close relations with India, Iran, US

and Russia. For them, it is also a blood feudnow, as they hold Pakistan responsible for thedeath of Masood, when in reality Islamabadknew nothing about the Taliban/Osama plot toassassinate Masood. Afghan refugees stillremain in Pakistan and have no plans to goback. Pakistan's western borders remaininsecure. Nearly a hundred thousand Pakistanitroops are stationed along Afghan borderfighting an array of enemies from TTPterrorists to Arab militants to local tribal

sympathizers to Uzbek infiltrators sent fromKabul and India. The scenario is not justcomplex, it is dirty.

The Indians returned to Afghanistan with a vengeance. Baluchistan insurgency hasbeen fully activated with bloody consequences for Pakistan. Pakistan governmentallowed CIA to operate independently in the tribal areas under the pretext of findingOsama and they exploited the opportunity to create Al-Qaeda, Uzbeks and TTP. The


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TTP insurgency was created and is being kept alive through massive support of weapons, money and infiltrators in the garb of Muslim militants and ArabMujahideen or Al -Qaeda. Isr aeli Mossad and CIA are handling the Arabconnection, while RAW and RAMA manage the TTP, Uzbeks and local Pashtun andPakistani terrorist elements.

The fascist religious ideology of Takfir against Pakistani State has been aggressivelypromoted through planted Arab spies like Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Abu Yazid whileOsama remains an elusive support to the Takfiri ideology. Local terrorists like TTPare further supported by Uzbek militants from ruthless Communist warlord RasheedDostum's gangs under the guise of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).

Pakistani sectarian terrorist groups like SSP and LeJ also joined the ranks of TTP forprotection and survival, and have expanded their role from anti-Shia militancy toanti-State and anti-Pakistani warfare. The entire campaign of terrorism againstPakistan is based in Afghanistan under the patronage of a hornet's nest of CIA,

Mossad, RAW and RAMA.Mercifully for Pakistan, the Afghan groups Mullah Umar, Haqqani and Hekmatyar remain neutral towards Pakistan and have still not declared any hostile intenttowards Pakistan, despite blunders made by Islamabad. US is desperate to pushPakistan onto a collision course with Afghan Taliban and Afghan resistance butPakistan has been resisting the pressure so far. The CIA has been waging anindependent war in the tribal regions eliminating genuine Afghan resistance throughdrone strikes but avoiding attacks on TTP, Baluch separatists and Uzbeks, despitestrong objections, demands and reservations by Pakistan.

The US is present in Afghanistan. CIA, Mossad, RAW and RAMA continue to playhavoc with Pakistan's security, backing as well as supporting multiple insurgenciesand terrorist groups in Pakistan. Pakistan government and parliament remainsparalyzed, while army continues to fight a heroic battle in the absence of anypolitical, diplomatic or information warfare support for the cause. American presencein Afghanistan is the root cause of all terrorism inside Pakistan. So far, this criticalissue has not been addressed either by the government or the military while trying tofight the insurgencies. In the reactive mode of response, more and more resources,men and weapons continue to flow into Pakistan from Afghanistan and the baseareas, safe havens and supply lines of the insurgents both in NWFP and Baluchistanremain secure, out of the reach of Pakistani forces.

Analyzing the Militant Groups in Pakistan:

After gaining an in-depth insight and understanding the historic prospect of political,sectarian and secular mindset and dogmatic struggle by various militant factionsacross the Islamic world, it is time to get an insight into the militant groups currentlyactive in and around Pakistan, and how they converge or diverge in pursuit of theirpolitical and sectarian ideals in the realm of religious insurgency. Apart from that, it


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is also time to study the motives, ambitions and future discourse of secularinsurgency that has been waged against Pakistan, in Baluchistan, from Afghanistanby Indian RAW.

Sipah -e- Sahaba Pakistan (SSP):

Formed in 1985 by Haq Nawaz Jhangvi, Zia-ur- Rehman Farooqi, Esrar-ul-HaqQasmi and Azam Tariq in Jhang as a political party. Main objective of thisorganization was to deter the political rise of Shiite parties. SSP remained part of provincial government in Punjab during 1993. Later on, SSP turned into a completesectarian terrorist entity with a manifesto to turn Pakistan into a Deobandi state. SSPwas banned for its sectarian violence in 2002. It started to operate again under thename of Millat-e-Islamia Pakistan, which was again banned in 2003 by thegovernment. SSP believe that Shiites are not Muslims and justifies brutal violenceagainst the community. Apart from sectarian activities, SSP is alleged to be involvedin Muslim-Christian riots in Gojra in 2009.

Lashkar-e- Jhangvi (LeJ):

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi was formed as a splinter group by the extremely violent criminalelements of SSP like Riaz Basra and Akram Lahori in 1996. These elements wereannoyed at SSP leadership for not taki ng adequate measures against Shiiteorganizations. Anti Shiite sentiments in the ranks of LeJ were more radical than SSP.According to LeJ scripture, all Shiites are infidels and must be eliminated by force.

Riaz Basra, a wanted criminal by Pakistani authorities, fled to Afghanistan where heestablished links with different terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda and TTP. LeJwas declared a terrorist outfit by Pakistani authorities in 2001. LeJ has noweffectively turned into a terrorist group for hire, ready to work for anyone who paysthe highest price. Indian RAW is now known to be using LeJ for terrorist strikesagainst strategic targets in Pakistan.

Most of the high profile terrorist incidents are attributed to LeJ, like the assassinationof Iranian diplomat, Sadiq Ganji (1990), killing of US journalist Daniel Pearl (2002),killing of French engineers in Karachi (2002), assassination of Benazir Bhutto(2007), attack on Marriott hotel in Islamabad (2008), attack on Sri Lankan cricketteam in Lahore (2009) etc.

Sipah-e-Muhammed Pakistan (SMP):

SMP was formed in 1990, by Moulana Muneeb Abbas Yazdani, as a reaction to SSP,to guard the Shiite community in Pakistan. The organization remained involved insectarian violence during the 1990's. SSP accused SMP of killing its leaders. SMP gotso much power in the coming years that it established a state within a state in ThokarNiaz Baig area in Lahore during the 90's. SMP was accused of getting funding fromIran to expand Shiite ideology in Pakistan. Just like LeJ, many criminal elements


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became part of SMP like Ghulam Raza Naqvi, once chieftain of the organization,who was involved in 30 different cases of murder and robbery.

This organization was also banned by Pakistani government on 14th August 2001.

Tehreek-i-Nifaz-e-Shariyat Muhammedi (TNSM):

The group was founded by Sufi Muhammed, in 1992 after he left Jamaat-e-Islami, of which he was an active leader. Objective of TNSM was to replicate Afghan Taliban'sversion of Islamic laws in Malakand division in frontier province, in NorthernPakistan. Sufi Muhammed was jailed in November 2001 for sending thousands of volunteers to Afghanistan to fight the US led invasion. After his arrest, his son in law,Mullah Fazlullah, took over the command of TNSM and started one of the bloodiestcampaigns to enforce his version of terrorist laws in Malakand division. This militantfaction of TNSM called itself Swati Taliban or TTP Swat.

TNSM used Islam to further its political agenda to grab power and authority. Duringits terror drive in Malakand it was supported by Indian backed Tehreek-i-TalibanPakistan (TTP) with arms, training, Radio stations and intelligence against Pakistanilaw enforcement agencies. TTP Swat established its writ on Swat and adjacentdistricts of Malakand division by 2009, when Pakistan army launched a full scaleoperation and crushed the TTP Swat faction.

Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP):

The most brutal and ruthless terrorist organization in the world today and the mostprized asset of RAW. Emerged in 2005, TTP acted as an umbrella organization formany militant groups fighting against the Pakistani state, under the ideology of Takfir. TTP consists of Pakistani, Arab, Uzbek and Afghan nationals.


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TTP declared the whole of Pakistani nation as infidels on allying with US in war onterror. TTP gets support from US and NATO occupied Afghanistan, mainly fromIndian and Afghan secret services.

TTP adopted the slogan of Jihad against US occupation of Afghanistan to get more

recruits from Pakistani tribal areas in order to intensify and expand its war againstPakistan. TTP never fired a single bullet on US forces in Afghanistan and its maintarget is Pakistan, both as state and nation, with a particular focus on Pakistan armyand its intelligence organizations. TTP established its foothold in South Waziristanagency in FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) area. Soon it expanded itsinfluence in other agencies of FATA as well. There were several incidents wherePakistani security personnel were beheaded by the cold blooded TTP operatives.

Apart from that, the phenomenon of suicide bombings in Pakistan was introduced byTTP. Thousands of Pakistanis have been killed in these suicide attacks by TTP duringthe last 5 years. The Pakistan government has declared TTP as a terrorist

organization. Pakistan army launched massive military operations against TTP inSouth Waziristan, where TTP had established its illegal state within the FATA area of Pakistan. TTP leadership is now on the run, as the Pakistan army is busy in searchand destroy operations in FATA.

Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA):

The Baluchistan Liberation army (BLA)is a Baluch ethno-linguistic, militant,secessionist organization. The statedgoal of the organization is to establishan independent Baluchistan by secedingPakistani and parts of Baluch ethnicity.

It was established during the 1970's, bythe support of Russian KGB, to divertPakistani military establishment's focusfrom Afghanistan. The name BaluchLiberation Army became public after9/11 when the organization took creditfor a series of bomb attacks in markets, railway lines and other infrastructure inBaluchistan. In 2006, the BLA was declared to be a proscribed group by Pakistanigovernment.

Brahamdagh Bugti commands BLA from Afghanistan and is supported and fundedby Indian consulates in Afghanistan. Indians are also sponsoring multiple conferenceson Baluchistan and on atrocities committed against Baluchis by Punjabi army.US still refuse to declare BLA and other Baluch separatist groups as terrorist outfits.


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Baluchistan Liberation Front (BLF):

Currently headed by Sher Mohammad Marri, BLF is the oldest insurgent movementin Baluchistan, whose origin predates to 1964. It got its support from pro-Soviet Iraqand other states in the gulf in its initial years. In the beginning, BLF was more active

in Iranian Baluchistan. In 1973, Pakistani authorities discovered arms in the Iraqiembassy in Islamabad, which were intended for the BLF's use in Baluchistan. Thisled to a full-scale military operation in Baluchistan against BLF.

Lashkar-e- Tayyaba (LeT):

Lashkar-e-Tayyaba operates in Kashmir. It was founded byHafiz Muhammed Saeed and Zafar Iqbal. The primary area of operations of their activities is the Kashmir valley, fightingagainst India for liberation of Kashmir. It does not have globalagenda and is a staunch opponent of Al-Qaeda and TTP, making

it an organization on the hit list of Indian backed terrorists. InJanuary 2009 the LeT publicly declared that it would pursue apeaceful resolution in the Kashmir issue and that it did not haveglobal jihadist aims. LeT does not exist in Afghanistan and hasnot committed any act of terrorism in Pakistan ever. US insistsupon calling LeT as an Al-Qaeda associate group and a threatlarger than Al-Qaeda but that is factually absurd. Ideologically,Al-Qaeda and LeT are diametrically opposite.

Harkat-ul- Jihad al-Islami (HuJI):

Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami emerged as first Pakistani militant organization in 1984during the Afghan Jihad; it was formed by Fazalur Rehman Khalil and Qari SaifullahAkhtar. Khalil later broke away to form his own group Harkat-ul-Ansar (HuA). Thisgroup would later re-form as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), when HuA was bannedby the United States in 1997.

HuJI first limited its operations in Afghanistan against the Soviets but after the Sovietretreat in 1988, the organization shifted its area of operation to the Indian HeldJammu and Kashmir. Currently, HuJI is a terrorist organization involved in anti-Pakistan activities inspired by Al-Qaeda ideologically; it has been banned by thePakistani government, as the group is hostile to Pakistan now.

Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM):

Hizbul Mujahideen (party of holy warriors) founded by Ahsan Dar in 1989, is aKashmiri militant group, active in Indian occupied Jammu & Kashmir only since1989. Hizbul Mujahideen is currently the largest militant group operating in IndianHeld Kashmir (IHK). HuM is not hostile to Pakistan nor aligned to Al-Qaeda nor


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have any act of terrorism attributed to it anywhere in the world. It is involved inlegitimate freedom struggle in Indian controlled Kashmir only.

Jaish-e- Muhammed (JeM):

Jaish-e-Muhammed was once a major mujahideen organization in Kashmir.

Jaish-e-Muhammed was formed in the year 2000, after supporters of MaulanaMasood Azhar split from another Kashmir based militant organization called Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. The group's primary motive is to liberate Kashmir from India and itwas active in Indian held Kashmir since 2001. It does not have global agenda anddoes not have affiliations with Al-Qaeda or TTP. In fact, this group and the TTP aredaggers drawn. JeM has been banned in Pakistan since 2002. Activities of JeM havereduced considerably in recent years after being banned by the government of Pakistan. Some of its cadre have joined the ranks of Afghan Taliban to fight againstthe US and NATO forces. The group is not hostile to Pakistan despite being banned

by the Pakistan government.Al-Badr:

Created in 1998, Al-Badr is a freedom fighter group operating in the Jammu Kashmirregion only. The group operated independently from their previous umbrella group,Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM). Prior to the group's separation from HuM, theyparticipated in fighting in Afghanistan in 1990 as part of Gulbadin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami alongside other anti-Soviet Afghan mujahideen. They have been linked toJamaat-e-Islami. The groups stated purpose is to liberate the Indian states of Jammuand Kashmir in order to be merged with Pakistan. Al-Badr is currently on the USState Department's list of Designated Foreign Funded Freedom Organizations. Al-Badr is not hostile to Pakistan nor aligned with Al-Qaeda or the TTP.

Al-Qaeda:

A hardcore terrorist group penetrated by CIA, Mossad nexus. Itnever existed during Afghan Jihad. Though Al-Qaeda's statedaim was to liberate all Muslim lands from foreign occupation,particularly from US occupation, and then establish an Islamicstate comprising of all Muslim countries, but due to heavypenetration of Mossad, CIA operatives and its extremist Takfiriideology, it has caused great turmoil and destruction in Muslimworld. This ideology is so twisted and fascist that it providedan easy whipping horse to the western media around the world,to distort the image of Islam as an intolerant, militant andsadistic religion.

Al-Qaeda is poised to use extensive force, most of the time against Muslim countriesand ordinary citizens who differ with its version of Islam. Basically, it's now a


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terrorist organization, waging a ruthless war against Pakistan, more through itsideology, than its fighters, and TTP is influenced by the same ideology. Effectively,Al-Qaeda is now a dead organization in Pakistani tribal regions and does not haveany role in war against US and NATO forces. Its active members are now just a fewdozen hunted men who do not have any logistical or technical base to cause any

terrorist operation in the world. They are ideologically more dangerous but notphysically. The generic brand name Al-Qaeda is used by US and western intelligenceagencies to brand all hostile groups.

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU):

Formed in 1991 by two Uzbek nationals, Tahir Yuldashev,and former Soviet paratrooper, Juma Namangani - bothethnic Uzbeks from the Fergana Valley. Its objective was tooverthrow President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan, and tocreate an Islamic state. But IMU was heavily penetrated

initially by Russian intelligence which diverted its attentiontowards Afghanistan and then towards Pakistan.

In 2000, it had established links with Afghan Taliban inNorthern Afghanistan areas under Taliban control. It foughtagainst US and the coalition forces in 2001 and faced almost total destruction, someof the survivors including , its founder and chieftain Tahir Yuldashev, fled toWaziristan agency in Pakistan where he established training camps and became anideological inspiration for the local edition of Taliban in Pakistan i.e. TTP. IMUsuffered a severe blow when Tahir Yuldashev was killed in a military operation of Pakistan army in Swat region, in 2009. The Uzbek group of Tahir is now heavilypenetrated by the communist, Rasheed Dostum's gangs and now Uzbek insurgents areoperating mainly under the command of the criminal warlord, General AbdulRasheed Dostam, Chief of Staff of Afghan army, from Afghanistan to continue theirfight against Pakistan, though they maintain their generic name of IMU for cover.

Afghan Taliban:

Emerged in 1994 under the leadership of Mullah Omar, Taliban were the first force inAfghanistan to bring political stability in a war stricken country. Ideologically,Taliban are not global Jihadists and do not share Al-Qaeda or TTP's visions of Takfiragainst Pakistan or the Muslim world. True freedom fighters, now they are moralequivalents of Afghan Mujahideen of the 80's, only fighting to liberate theirhomeland from western occupation.

Jalaluddin Haqqani Group:

The Haqqani group is an independent resistance group inAfghanistan and is closely allied with the Afghan Taliban.Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani along with his son Sirajuddin


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Haqqani lead the group. The group is strong in eastern Afghanistan and presentsstrong threats to NATO and United States forces in Afghanistan. Jalaluddin Haqqaniis regarded as one of the most senior Afghan commanders who fought against theSoviets during 1980's. Haqqani network, unlike Al-Qaeda, does not consider Pakistanan enemy state, and is not involved in any anti-Pakistan

activity so far.

Hizb-e-Islami:

Established in Pakistan in 1975 to fight , Hizb-e Islami is anIslamist organization led by Gulbadin Hekmatyar. Itsmembership was drawn from ethnic Pashtuns and its

pan-Islamic ideology is drawn from Maulana Maudoodi'steachings. Like Haqqani network, Hizb-e-Islami is alsofocused in Afghanistan against US and NATO forces and is

not hostile towards Pakistan.

Profiling militant groups in context of Pakistan's National security:

The problem of militancy and sectarianism cannot be dissected completely withoutproperly and carefully categorizing and profiling all the militant groups in Pakistanaccording to their ideology, objectives, area of operations and hostility towardsPakistan. These militant organizations in the region can be categorized into fourgroups; Sectarian, Insurgents, Kashmiri militants and Afghan militant groups.

Major categories of militant groups active in the region

It is often said that the militant assets created by Pakistan in the 80's are now comingback to haunt it. Nothing can be further from the truth. The above categorizationmakes it clear that Pakistan still does not face any threat from the militant assets itcreated during the Afghan Jihad era. The Kashmiri groups also pose no threat to

Sectarian SSP

SMP LJ

Insurgents Al-Qaeda

IMU/Uzbiks BLA BLF TTP

TNSM

KashmiriGroups

HuJI HuM

LeT JeM

AlBadr

AfghanGroups

Afghan Taliban Haqqani

Network Hizb-i-Islami


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violence in Pakistan. TTP/LeJ are already known to have attacked Barelvi/Sufi sectsto create another axis of Deobandi-Barelvi clash.

Almost, all the anti Pakistan, religious, militant organizations within Pakistan, belongto Deobandi sect (except SMP which is Shiite outfit). It is interesting to note that

Barelvis and Sufis do not have any militant outfit within their ranks, and hence morevulnerable to this new dimension of sectarian violence.

Hierarchical tree of militant organizations

MilitantGroups

Secular Baluchistan

BLF

BLA

Religious

Secterian

SMP

SSP

LJ

Political

Foreign

Al-Qaeda

IMU

Local

TNSM Fazalullah

TTP

Mehsud

Nazir

Gulbhadur

KashmiriGroups

Afghan Groups

Taliban

HaqqaniNetwork

Hizb-i-Islami


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Kashmiri groups are focused towards their anti-India operations in Indian heldKashmir. Most of these groups have been banned by Pakistani government after 9/11,and their activities are now severely curtailed and closely monitored but still all majorgroups in this category are no threat to the state of Pakistan.

Though Al-Qaeda and IMU were formed during 1990's, both these organizationsestablished their footprint in Pakistan after 9/11. Prior to that these organizationswere present inside Afghanistan but never posed a direct threat to Pakistan until thelatter decided to become an ally in US war on terror.

Within this complex equation, CIA also wages its own war in the FATA tribalregions through the drone strikes, almost always targeting those elements that areeither pro-Pakistan or at least neutral. CIA sometimes does attack TTP and other anti-Pakistan groups, but that is whenever Pakistan army tries to reach a peace deal withthem. CIA has sabotaged all the previous attempts of such peace deals between

Pakistan army and the insurgents by killing the TTP leaders like Nek Muhammedwho wanted to negotiate peace. Real target of CIA drones are those groups that arenot fighting against Pakistani state, like Haqqani, Hekmatyar and Mullah Omargroups.

Analysis:

Except for the military which has performed extremely well against heavy oddscombating these insurgencies and terrorist groups, the rest of the systems of the State,government, media and judiciary have totally collapsed under pressure. The fear of the terrorists has taken the entire State apparatus, including the parliament, as

hostage. Today Pakistan is faced with two existential threats:

1. Insurgency terrorism.

2. Massive corruption and hemorrhage of State financial resources.

Pakistan national security strategy must be developed in order to respond ruthlessly tothese two challenges, even if it means a complete and total overhaul of the political,judicial and media systems. The solutions would be as much political and diplomaticas they are going to be social and military. So far, only one prong military, has beendeployed and is severely under pressure despite major gains on ground.

The weakest link in developing a successful anti-insurgency strategy is the lack of political will and absence of moral authority in the political leadership of the country.Religious insurgency cannot be fought with a secular face, neither pacified throughappeasement. A strong moral, religious and political authority is required to take theinitiative away from the militants and into the hands of the State; same is true forsecular insurgencies.


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A total and complete system and leadership failure through the years has brought thesituation to this precipice. Few factors, which have contributed to this serioussituation are:

Treating the symptoms and ignoring the disease. Problems cannot be

eradicated without uprooting their causes. The root cause of all the crisis,violence and insurgency against Pakistan is the US presence in Afghanistanand India's 4th generation warfare using Afghanistan as a base. Both TTP andBLA get their support from Indian operators in Afghanistan. So far, Pakistanhas not addressed the root cause of the issue nor shaken the centre of gravityof the militants. For that Pakistan will have to become aggressively pro-active and take the war to the insurgents and their sponsors in Afghanistan.US war in Afghanistan is not Pakistan's war.

Pakistan will have to declare neutrality in that conflict and demandwithdrawal of US forces from that country. That is the only practical,

workable, sustainable long-term solution to all the violence and insurgency inPakistan. All other measures would remain stop gap, reactive and temporary.

Lack of any coherent and practical anti- terrorism policy in the countrydespite facing such a mammoth existential threat from this quarter.Parliament, governments and the judiciary have all avoided the issuedeliberately for fear of reprisal from the terrorists. This has been the most fatalinternal failure so far. Even the term terrorism and insurgency have neitherbeen defined at State level nor groups classified according to their threatlevels. Consequently, there are no guidelines for media and nationalopinion makers on how to tackle the crisis.

Lack of justice and failure of State prosecution services. The Judicial systemhas collapsed totally and does not prosecute and execute the terrorists. Lastterrorist executed through the judicial system was a lone sectarian militanthanged almost 10 years ago!

Presence of separatists parties with strong alignment with India in thecoalition government in Centre, Frontier, Baluchistan and in Sindh haveaggravated the crisis and have prevented development of any mature strategywhich would respond to the national security needs. In Baluchistan, the Chief Minister and the provincial government is sympathetic to the cause of Baluch

separatists, hence no political, economic and military solution is being appliedwith chaos increasing every day and the situation further exacerbating.

Emotional and political influence of personal views, faith and sect onobjective thinking. Almost all major local anti-Pakistan militant groups arefrom Deobandi School, (SSP, LeJ, TTP, TTP Swat) but the mainstreamDeobandi clergy is neither willing to take responsibility, nor condemn suicideattacks by these terrorist groups against the State, people and the armed


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forces. Major Deobandi political party JUI, which is also the coalition partnerwith the present regime and had headed the government in Frontier provincefor five years during Musharraf era, actually supports the militants and is thepatron political organization for all Deobandi militant outfits. Thiscomplicates the issue of the development of State response against high threat,

terror outfits. Fatwas or moral persuasion against terrorism, from other sectsdo not matter to the terrorist outfits as they only recognize their own scholarsfrom their own sect.

Lack of any media policy or information warfare strategy to isolate the moralauthority of the terrorists. Media cannot speak against major terrorists for fearof repris als nor can it speak against political leaders like Altaf Hussain, theleader of MQM. The free media is almost a hostage to the militant groupsand parties.

There is absolutely no diplomatic or political support, at regional and

international levels, to the military in fighting the insurgency. The ForeignOffice has been one of the biggest failures in exposing the Indian and foreignhand in orchestrating these insurgencies. There is absolutely no internationalpressure on insurgents or on their sponsors due to this catastrophic failure toprotect national interests by the Foreign Office. US have still not declaredBaluch separatists as terrorist groups, nor does the US take TTP as a hostileentity to Pakistan's interests. US is more interested in making Pakistan wage awar against Afghan groups, which are freedom fighters within Afghanistanand are not hostile to Pakistan. US also want Pakistan to eliminate Kashmirigroups, which is, in fact the demand of the Indians. US have lately declaredLeT as a bigger threat than Al-Qaeda, despite the fact that LeT is now a non-

functional Kashmir group and have neither a global agenda nor does it work against US interests. This shows how Indian Foreign Office controls USexternal policy, especially towards Pakistan.

Lack of specialists in sectarian and religious matters. Perhaps the biggestfailure of all regimes in Islamabad has been not to understand and address thesituation professionally. Temporary, short-term stop gap arrangements haveaggravated the crisis over years. No serious paper or research hasever beenconducted to identify the factors, groups and sponsors of these militantmovements and terrorist organizations.

Conclusion:The challenge to national security is grave but is well within manageable limits.Pakistan needs a multi prong response comprising of both reactive and pro-activestrategies and measures, with a commitment to implement these strategiesconcurrently on various axes of national security and social development to fight themenace of religious, secular and sectarian radicalization. The situation in Pakistan, incontext of sectarian violence and any kind of insurgency was under control before


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1979 and also during the Taliban era, between 1996 to 2001. So proposed policiesand measures must be directed towards achieving those benchmark eras in social,religious, political and military culture.

The baseline wisdom to handle these challenges is that Pakistan needs a strong

Federal Government. The present setup has catastrophically failed. Every challenge ismanageable. It is the leadership, which has collapsed.

It's time to devise and implement our homegrown, independent and honorablestrategic and national security policies as a Muslim state and as a leader of theIslamic world, rather than as a subservient client state of the West and US. These aredecisive moments for Pakistan to take this initiative aggressively at national, regionaland global level. For the Pakistani nation, it's now or never! The time for change hasarrived!

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fighting insurgencies

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