Figure 1. Trends in number of births and TFR: Japan, 1947-2007

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Vital Statistics, various years.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 20070.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Births TFR

TFR

Bir

ths（

mill

ions）

Year

Figure2. Real GDP growth rate and total fertility rate: Japan, 1947-2007

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Year

TF

R

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Gro

wth

rat

e (%

)

TFR GDP growth rate

High economic growth

Vogel’s “Japan as No. 1” published

Bursting of the bubble economy

“Lost Decade”

Korean war

Figure 3. Labor force participation rates for men and women aged 65 and over in selected countries, 2007

Source: ILO, 2008, Yearbook of Labour Statistics 2008.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

France Germany Austria United States Japan

Men

Women

(%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

Age

Mill

ion

ye

n (

me

asu

red

in 2

00

0 c

on

sta

nt

pric

es)

Figure 4. Age-specific profiles of per capita consumption and production: Japan, 1984-2004

Labor income 2004Labor income 1999

Labor income 1994

Labor income 1989

Labor income 1984

Consumption 2004

Consumption 1999

Consumption 1994

Consumption 1989

Consumption 1984

Figure 5. Average age-specific profiles of per capita yearly consumption and production, 1984-2004

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

Age

Mill

ion

ye

n

Consumption

Production

Figure 6. First demographic dividend in Japan, 1920-2025

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

(%)

Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 2008, Social Security Benefits for Fiscal Year 2006, http://www.ipss.go.jp/.

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Pension

Medical care

other expendituresWelfare and

Figure 7. Social security costs by category(as a percentage of national income), 1951-2006, Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1981 1986 1990 1996 2001 2005

Figure 8. International comparison of the proportion of the elderly persons aged 65 and over living in three-generation households: selected countries, 1981-2005

Source: Cabinet Office, International Survey of Lifestyles and Attitudes of the Elderly, various years.

Year

Japan

France

France

USA

Germany

(%)

Panel A: 1984

Figure 9. Changing pattern of three components of per capita reallocation of lifecycle deficits in Japan

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

Age

Mill

ion

ye

n (

20

00

co

nst

an

t p

rice

s)

Asset-based Reallocations Public Transfers Private Transfers Lifecycle Deficit

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

Age

Mill

ion

ye

n (

20

00

co

nst

an

t p

rice

s)

Asset-based Reallocations Public Transfers Private Transfers Lifecycle Deficit

Panel B: 1994

Figure 9. Changing pattern of three components of per capita reallocation of lifecycle deficits in Japan

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

Age

Mill

ion

ye

n (

20

00

co

nst

an

t p

rice

s)

Asset-based Reallocations Public Transfers Private Transfers Lifecycle Deficit

Panel C: 2004

Figure 9. Changing pattern of three components of per capita reallocation of lifecycle deficits in Japan

Figure 10. Per capita net public pension transfers, Japan

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Mill

ion

ye

n (

20

00

co

nst

an

t p

rice

s)

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

Age

Figure 11. Per capita net intra-household transfers in 2004, by age

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+

Age group

Mill

ion

ye

n

0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+

Year Total population (1000 persons) 0-14(%) 65+(%) Total Fertility Rate Total Dependency Ratio 75+/65+(%) Women 40-59/65-84

1950 83200 35.4 4.9 3.65 67.5 25.7 1.82

1955 89276 33.4 5.3 2.37 63.1 29.2 1.81

1960 93419 33.0 5.7 2.00 60.4 30.4 1.80

1965 98275 25.6 6.3 2.14 46.8 30.3 1.77

1970 103720 23.9 7.1 2.13 44.9 30.2 1.69

1975 111940 24.3 7.9 1.91 47.6 32.0 1.60

1980 117060 23.5 9.1 1.75 48.4 34.4 1.48

1985 121049 21.5 10.3 1.76 46.7 37.8 1.40

1990 123611 18.2 12.1 1.54 43.5 40.1 1.30

1995 125570 16.0 14.6 1.42 50.4 39.3 1.10

2000 126926 14.6 17.4 1.36 46.9 40.9 0.91

2005 127449 13.8 20.2 1.25 50.6 45.1 0.77

2010 127013 13.0 23.0 1.24 55.6 48.0 0.65

2015 125603 12.1 26.9 1.24 63.2 48.4 0.59

2020 123235 11.0 29.5 1.24 67.6 52.1 0.57

2025 120094 10.2 31.0 1.28 70.0 60.0 0.56

Sources: Statistics Bureau, Population Census, various year.

Nihon University Population Research Institute Population Projection, 2003

Table 1. Population change in Japan: 1950-2025

1981 1986 1990 1996 2001 2005Work 30 26 24 24 24 21Public pensions 74 85 90 93 93 95Private pensions 9 5 7 7 11 7Savings 11 17 25 23 22 25Assets 16 15 15 11 9 7Children 35 26 23 19 14 11Public assistance 2 2 2 1 1 0Other 4 3 3 3 3 2No answer 1 0 2 0 0 0

Table 2. Income sources for the elderly aged 65 and older in Japan: 1981,1986, 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2005

(%)

Source: Cabinet Office, International Survey of Lifestyles and Attitudes of the Elderly, various years.

YearYoung age

Net consumer to net producerOld age

Net producer to net consumer

1984 27 64

1989 28 65

1994 29 71

1999 30 74

2004 30 77

Table 3. Change in crossing ages in per capita net familial transfers in Japan, 1984-2004

YearYoung age

Net consumer to net producerOld age

Net producer to net consumer

1984 22 60

1989 22 60

1994 22 61

1999 22 61

2004 22 62

Table 4. Change in crossing ages in per capita net public transfers in Japan, 1984-2004