recording.aspx?fileid=la f3494 05282015070320925 …...may 18, 2015 · announcements. fema region...

National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call

May 28, 2015 10:00 AM EST

Listen to the recording here to follow along with the presentation: http://www.freeconferencecalling.com/recordings/Recording.aspx?fileid=LAF3494_05282015070320925_1165119&bridge=697620&email=&accountid=1116753

http://www.freeconferencecalling.com/recordings/Recording.aspx?fileid=LAF3494_05282015070320925_1165119&bridge=697620&email=&accountid=1116753

NCR HUG Call Details Conference Call Details: 1. Dial-in: 1-302-202-1110 2. Conference code: 697620

Join the Meeting through Adobe Connect: (No Registration Required)Click here to access the Adobe Connect meeting

The call will be recorded and the audio will be combined with the presentation and sent out at the end of the call. The audio and presentation will also be made available on the following websites:

NCR HUG Use HAZUS page - http://www.usehazus.com/ncrhugNCR HUG LinkedIn page - http://www.linkedin.com/groups/National-Capitol-Region-HAZUS-User-4790251?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr

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https://fema.connectsolutions.com/ncrhug_052015/

http://www.usehazus.com/ncrhug

http://www.linkedin.com/groups/National-Capitol-Region-HAZUS-User-4790251?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr

Agenda• Welcome + Announcements

• E317 Comprehensive Data Management for HAZUS Spring 2015 FEMA Region III

• HAZUS Modernization – Task 2 Release: 2.2 SP01(See meeting minutes for installation process)

• U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report on “induced seismicity”: Earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing– Morgan Moschetti & Mark Petersen, USGS

• Creating Climate-Smart Cities: Green Infrastructure for Climate-Smart Cities – Holly Elwell, The Trust for Public Land & David Strong, USGS

- LIVE Demo!

• Request for Volunteers – Next NCR HUG Call

• Adjourn

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AnnouncementsUpcoming HAZUS Courses at EMI

The Emergency Management Institute (EMI) has the following HAZUS training course available:

E317 Comprehensive Data Management for HAZUS: June 15-18, 2015E172 Hazus-MH for Flood: July 27-30, 2015E296 Application of HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment: August 3-6, 2015E190 ArcGIS for Emergency Managers: August 24-27, 2015E179 Application of Hazus-MH for Disaster Operations: September 28-October 1, 2015

Please note that enrollment is closed for each course, 6 weeks prior to the course!

• To apply for a HAZUS training course, please visit: http://training.fema.gov/Apply/

• To enroll, download the Admission Application or contact the HAZUS Training Specialist at EMI: Jordan Manos – [email protected]

For further information on registration, please visit training.fema.gov/emiweb

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http://training.fema.gov/Apply

http://training.fema.gov/Apply/

mailto:[email protected]

AnnouncementsFEMA Region III E317 Comprehensive Data Management for HAZUS – 3rd Course in Series

Focus on the State’s specific needs related to data management and geospatial governance4 day Course – Onsite sessionDay 1-3: Official E317 Comprehensive Data Management for HAZUS training courseDay 4 : Interactive session highlighting the State’s specific needs related to data development, geospatial governance and the development of tools to streamline workflows.

Tentative Training Sites – Report out will occur during our June HUG Call!Delaware – Successfully completed!Pennsylvania – Successfully completed!West Virginia – Successfully completed!

Trainers: Kevin Mickey and David Coats from the POLIS Center at Indiana University – Purdue University

Participants: Preference given to data managers, those with GIS proficiency and individuals essential to the State’s geospatial governance

Desired Outcomes: • Improved coordination among State and Local • Increased awareness of geospatial data availability and barriers to access• Develop strategic plan for geospatial governance• Discuss the value of tools and workflows to streamline use of HAZUS-MH

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HAZUS Modernization Release of Hazus 2.2 Service Pack 01 (SP01) on Monday, May 18, 2015

Hazus Modernization Task 2: Functional enhancements to the Flood module• Application of the dasymetric GBS distribution approach• Implementation of study region aggregation at custom jurisdiction and neighborhood levels• Updated version of Hazus data, including fixes to current state data available for public download• Fix to hurricane data tables addressing user-defined windfield creation errors.

ATTENTION!Hazus Modernization Task 2 previously included updates to damage functions and an alignment with the Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) Tool. A latent defect exists in the Hazus flood model which prevents Hazusfrom determining whether a riverine or coastal damage function should be used for a user-defined facility (UDF) in a combined riverine-coastal scenario, and may not use foundation types correctly in estimating loses for the GBS. This will be addressed with the next release (Hazus 3.0) later this year!

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HAZUS Modernization

• URL for HAZUS Help DESK Site has Changed: support.msc.fema.gov• Help Desk Email remains the same: [email protected] 7


New Geospatial Resources and Information!Location And Weather Data Improve Profits And Emergency Responsehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/tomgroenfeldt/2015/05/12/location-and-weather-data-improve-profits-and-emergency-response/

A Collaborative Approach to Storm Recoveryhttps://medium.com/@Esri/a-collaborative-approach-to-storm-recovery-68a54c419a4e

2015 U.S. Esri Demographic data is now available!http://blogs.esri.com/esri/arcgis/2015/05/06/esris-2015-u-s-demographic-data-is-now-available/?utm_source=esri&utm_medium=email&utm_term=98251&utm_content=article&utm_campaign=globe_2015

Data disaster: Do GIS systems protect Australians against extreme events?http://www.governmentnews.com.au/2015/05/data-disaster-do-gis-systems-protect-australians-against-extreme-events/

NOAA Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper - Flood-mapping tool expanded to cover the Eastern Seaboardhttp://gcn.com/blogs/pulse/2015/05/noaa-flood-mapper.aspxTool: http://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/flood-exposure

How Hoboken Could Pay for a Giant Anti-Flooding Bathtubhttp://nextcity.org/daily/entry/disaster-flood-insurance-rebound-city-resilience 8

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomgroenfeldt/2015/05/12/location-and-weather-data-improve-profits-and-emergency-response/

https://medium.com/@Esri/a-collaborative-approach-to-storm-recovery-68a54c419a4e

http://blogs.esri.com/esri/arcgis/2015/05/06/esris-2015-u-s-demographic-data-is-now-available/?utm_source=esri&utm_medium=email&utm_term=98251&utm_content=article&utm_campaign=globe_2015

http://www.governmentnews.com.au/2015/05/data-disaster-do-gis-systems-protect-australians-against-extreme-events/

http://gcn.com/blogs/pulse/2015/05/noaa-flood-mapper.aspx

http://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/flood-exposure

http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/disaster-flood-insurance-rebound-city-resilience

Moschetti – National Capitol Region, Hazus User Group

Morgan P. [email protected] Geological Survey

May 28, 2015

Seismic Hazard from Induced Earthquakes

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2015/1070/



Overview

• What is seismic hazard?

• How we compute seismic hazard

– deterministic vs. probabilistic hazard

• Induced earthquakes in the central and eastern US

• Assessing seismic hazard from induced earthquakes

• Induced seismic hazard impacts and outreach


What is Seismic Hazard?• Hazard from earthquake ground-shaking

– No liquefaction, landslides, fault-rupture, tsunami…

• Developed from many data sources:– geology: observations of geologic feature off-sets in trenches, landforms– geodesy: observations of ground deformation (GPS, leveling)– seismology: observations of earthquakes (earthquake catalog)

• How is USGS seismic hazard used?– Seismic provisions for design of buildings, bridges, highways, railroads, other structures…– Earthquake insurance rates (e.g., California Earthquake Authority)– Governmental disaster management and mitigation strategies– Seismic safety applications (e.g., CA Seismic Hazard Mapping Act and Nuclear Regulatory

Commission assessments of nuclear power plants)– Site-specific engineering analyses by industry and government

• Updated every 6 years – most recent update, July 2014


Why probabilistic seismic hazard? Or why not deterministic seismic hazard?

Deterministic seismic hazard

M7


Earthquake ground-shaking: WUS/CEUS




M7M6




M7 (1/5000yr)M6 (1/50yr)

- What if you have earthquakes from different sources that have very different recurrence times?

- Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)


Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

1. Where will earthquakes occur in the future?

2. How often and what magnitude?

3. How hard will they shake the ground from each earthquake?

4. When answers are available for Steps 1-3: Add up all of the sources to find the probability of exceeding damaging shaking.


Why probabilistic seismic hazard?

Stronger ground-shaking

Occ

urs m

ore

freq

uent

ly




Occ

urs m

ore

freq

uent

ly

1/2500 years




Occ

urs m

ore

freq

uent

ly

1/2500 years

~0.2 g




Occ

urs m

ore

freq

uent

ly

1/100 years

1/2500 years

~0.2 g




Occ

urs m

ore

freq

uent

ly

1/100 years

1/2500 years

~0.02 g ~0.2 g




Occ

urs m

ore

freq

uent

ly

1/2500 years

~0.2 g


Induced Earthquakes: These are not new ideasSubsurface Disposal in Geologic

Basins – A study of Reservoir StrataAAPG Monograph 10 (1968)

Underground Waste Management and Environmental Implications

AAPG Monograph 18 (1976)

“the tremors … being the results of the release of stress when the pressures produced by injection of fluid overcome the friction on opposing rock surfaces.”

“The Denver earthquakes – and similar, less intensively studied cases in oilfields in western Colorado, Texas and Utah – have served a very good purpose in alerting us to this kind of long-term danger.”

(slide courtesy Bill Ellsworth)


How can earthquakes be induced?



“The disposal of waste fluids by injection into a deep well has triggered earthquakes near Denver, Colorado.”

Healy, J.H., Rubey, W.W., Griggs, D.T. and Raleigh, C.B., 1968, The Denver Earthquakes; Science, v. 161, p. 1301-1310.

Key Findings:

• Release of long-stored tectonic stress on ancient faults

• Earthquakes occurred more than 10 km from injection point

• Largest earthquake (Mw 4.8) occurred over one year after injection stopped

• Earthquakes continued into the 1980s

Injection Volume

Earthquake Count

Denver Earthquakes

5 km radius

Earthquakes in 1967



1970 - 1979



1980 - 1989


1990 - 1999


2000 - 2008


2009 - 2013


2014 through May

Declustered Earthquake Rate (M≥3)

Oklahoma

California



Seismicity

(slide courtesy of Bill Ellsworth)


Oklahoma seismic station on March 13, 2015 and damage from 2011 M5.6 Prague earthquake

Oklahoma Geological Survey station,Figure from Rob Williams

St. Gregory’s University, Shawnee Oklahoma


Fracking or Wastewater Disposal?

Hundreds of thousands of hydraulic fracture jobs.

Only a handful of felt events.

10,000+ deep wastewater wells in U.S.

Many with volumes > 106 m3

Few with detected seismicity

Magnitudes as large as Mw 5.6

Primary cause of induced earthquakes.

Fracking wellWastewater well

adapted from geology.com



Salt Water Disposal Wells

Weingarten et al. 2015 (in review)

From Jonathan Godt (USGS)


Locations of Potential Induced Earthquakes


M>2.5Earthquakeswithin 17 areasof suspected Induced seismicity


Modeling Induced Seismicity


A model for how often and where earthquakes occurKafka, 2002

(1) Large earthquakes tend to occur near locations of smaller earthquakes – use locations of small earthquakes in CEUS to forecast locations of larger, earthquakes

(2) The magnitudes and rates of earthquakes follow Gutenberg-Richter relation: About 10x fewer earthquakes for every magnitude


A model for how often and where earthquakes occurKafka, 2002

(1) Large earthquakes tend to occur near locations of smaller earthquakes – use locations of small earthquakes in CEUS to forecast locations of larger, earthquakes

(2) The magnitudes and rates of earthquakes follow Gutenberg-Richter relation: About 10x fewer earthquakes for every magnitude

??

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Mag

nitu

de

YearOklahoma earthquakes

Other induced

El Reno, OK, USA Prague, OK, USA

Koyna, India

Gazli, Uzbekistan

Wenchuan, China


Seismicity-based information in the US hazard model


Incorporating preliminary seismic hazard from induced earthquakes

2014 US Seismic Hazard Including Induced Seismic Hazard


Steps forward• Developing 2015 seismic hazard model (December 2015)• Further research into causes of induced seismicity and potential for

predicting what regions might be vulnerable. • Regional outreach – providing information to regions experiencing

induced seismicity– Scientific support (e.g., seismic instrumentation CO, OK, KS, TX, AR)– Providing information and products (e.g., Dallas Area Earthquake

Incidents Working Group)• Interaction with Building Code Committee

– Background on induced seismicity. What steps might be taken in building construction.

** US Geological Survey is a scientific agency – doesn’t make policy decisions or recommendations

Creating Climate-Smart Cities

Green Infrastructure for Climate-Smart Cities

Connect

Absorb

Protect

Cool

Connect

Chicago—The 606

NYC—The Queensway

Absorb

P.S. 164, NYC—Green Playground

Los Angeles Green Alleys

Protect

Source: NOAA Tides & Currents

Climate-Smart City Pilots Provide Replicable Model

Research

GIS Planning

Demonstration Projects

RESEARCH: Assess Past GI Performance

GIS: Target Highest Value Sites

DEMONSTRATE: Resilient Designs on Priority Sites

Pilot: Green Infrastructure for Coastal Resilience

Research: How Did GI and Social Networks Function to Mitigate Damage from Sandy?

GIS: Online Portal for Decision Support from Project Selection to Policy Measures

Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

Waterfront Features—Natural and Built

Demographic Vulnerabilities

Existing Plans and Strategic Criteria

Portal: Use Data to Model Priorities

Portal: Use Query Function to Find High Value Parcels and Develop Parcel Priority Maps

Portal: Run Data-Driven Parcel Reports

Portal: Use Data to Make Project Maps Showing Climate Relevance

Portal: Take Data to the Field

Viewing Sandy Storm Surge Data at NYC Waterfront Site

Demonstration Projects

TPL Project:Old Place Creek,Staten Island

TPL Project:North Shore Park,Staten Island

Classroom Connections

Participatory Design

Resilience Networking?

Promoting Systems-Level Change—Social Resilience through Community Engagement

Smart Parks Stack Benefits

Water Smart—Stormwater control as mandated by law and municipal water quality objectives

People Smart—10-minute walk standard and innovative park designs to advance livability, recreation, & public health

Habitat Smart—Incorporate native plants, wetland features, restored oyster beds, and more

Climate Smart—Protection from sea level rise and storm surge, heat island mitigation, update GI for future conditions

Thank You!Holly Elwell, AICP

Climate-Smart [email protected]

David Strong, [email protected]



Thursday June, 25 2015 at 10:00 AM EST

Use the same number and conference code for each call:Call 1-302-202-1110 and enter this conference code # 697620

**Request volunteer for next month’s presentation• HAZUS / Risk Assessment project• HAZUS “How to” presentation

Meeting notes and an updated presentation with audio will be sent out after this call

Adjourn

Next Call

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