final- dla energy demand planning-forecasting overvie€¦ · · 2017-05-03• maintain integrity...

DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCYAMERICA’S COMBAT LOGISTICS SUPPORT AGENCY

WARFIGHTER FIRST - PEOPLE & CULTURE - STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT - FINANCIAL STEWARDSHIP - PROCESS EXCELLENCE

Demand Planning/Forecasting

Overview

April 2017

Deliver the right solution on time, every time


• Background

• Demand Planning Overview

• Process Flow

• Collaboration

• DPA Metrics & Uses

• Way Ahead

Agenda



Demand Planning With Advanced Planning and Optimization (APO)

• Entry point into the entire supply chain

• Maintain Integrity of Demand History in Demand Planning APO Planning Book

• Planning done using Characteristic Value Combinations (CVCs)

• Planning process is a 4 week cycle

• Produce Enriched Forecast of projected sales from historical data, statistical modeling and collaboration

• Demand Planning is performed by exception through Alerts



Demand Planning Terminology• Statistical Forecast

– Generated based on last three years of Corrected History minus the last two months

• Corrected Forecast– Generated from Demand Planning adjustments to Statistical Forecast;

used by customers for collaboration

• Enriched Forecast– Generated once a month from customer/Demand Planning collaboration

consensus; represents projected sales

• Demand Plan Accuracy (DPA)– Comparison of Demand Planning’s Enriched Forecast to actual sales history

• Characteristic Value Combination (CVC)– Based on Line of Business, Location, Customer



Demand Planning Process Flow• Week 1

– Review Demand Plan Accuracy Reports– Review History and/or make adjustments to History– At end of week Statistical Forecast is generated

• Week 2– Review Statistical Forecast and make adjustments– Send reminder email to all customers/partners with active collaboration

profiles– At end of week Corrected Forecast is generated

• Week 3– Customer/partner adjustments to the Corrected Forecast

• Week 4– Review customer/partner inputs – Select required CVCs for release to SNP planning book– At end of week Enriched Forecast is generated



Forecasting Models

• There are more than 37 different forecast models available in SAP APO

• The most commonly used models by demand planning are:– Seasonal Trend Model– Linear Regression– Seasonal/Linear Regression– Constant Model– Copy History– Croston model– Auto-Select 2



Collaboration• Who:

– Customers/Partners (Customer Direct & Bulk)– Demand Planners– Service Control Points (SCPs)

• Naval Supply Systems Command Energy (NAVSUP Energy) –Collaborates on all bulk locations

• Army Petroleum Center (APC) – View Only• Air Force Petroleum Agency (AFPET) – View Only

– DLA Energy Regions – Bulk & Customer Direct Supply Planners

• How:– EEBP Demand Planning Collaboration

• JD795/795B for users with dla.mil email addresses or JD2205/2205B for everyone else

• Edit capabilities for Customers• View capabilities SCPs, Regions

– Soft Collaboration can take place at any time• When:

– Customers/Partner: Third week of the planning cycle– Regions, SCPs, Bulk and CD Supply Planners: Third & Fourth week of

planning cycle


WARFIGHTER FIRST - PEOPLE & CULTURE - STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT - FINANCIAL STEWARDSHIP - PROCESS EXCELLENCE 8

Collaboration Metrics (Bulk)

FY16Starting number of

ProfilesEnding number of

Profiles Total Collaborations Percent of locations

that collaborated15-Dec 280 309 92 29.77%16-Jan 309 328 127 38.72%16-Feb 328 342 166 48.54%16-Mar 352 375 234 62.40%16-Apr 375 388 270 69.59%16-May 388 392 291 74.23%16-Jun 392 396 309 78.03%16-Jul 397 397 334 84.13%

16-Aug 397 399 338 84.71%16-Sep 399 400 341 85.00%16-Oct 400 401 350 87.28%16-Nov 401 405 370 91.35%16-Dec 405 406 375 92.36%17-Jan 406 407 376 92.38%17-Feb 407 411 384 93.43%



Other Collaboration Information

• Currently there are 411 bulk fuel locations with collaboration up from 280 in Dec 2015

• Average 92% monthly collaboration rate

• Demand Planners provide collaboration instruction during FMD Accountant and Responsible Officer training



DLA Energy - Worldwide

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16

Per

cent

age

Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16LAG 1 81.92% 85.63% 92.04% 99.15% 97.93% 99.27% 99.63% 97.77% 90.39% 96.63% 86.76% 93.56%LAG 4 81.88% 86.73% 96.36% 97.78% 97.72% 99.03% 95.17% 99.77% 91.51% 97.01% 85.06% 97.79%LAG 12 76.51% 90.61% 99.86% 91.82% 90.25% 90.55% 94.70% 91.78% 87.13% 98.06% 85.31% 95.39%



JAA DPA

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%


Percentage

Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16LAG1 81.78% 85.06% 95.41% 92.18% 97.41% 95.30% 93.31% 98.40% 96.96% 93.20% 95.28% 90.79%

LAG4 85.21% 89.20% 90.83% 92.01% 93.36% 99.02% 98.97% 93.81% 86.72% 99.08% 89.99% 94.61%

LAG12 80.26% 92.59% 78.11% 74.41% 79.53% 87.04% 88.83% 86.89% 82.19% 92.81% 82.94% 99.60%



JAA Enriched Forecast12 Month Enriched Forecast Feb 2017 – Jan 2018• 1,469,723,180 USG or 34,993,409 BBLS

Aggregated DPAs• Lag 1 92.92% Lag 4 92.73% Lag 12 85.43%

Previous 12 Months Final Demand History (FDH)• 1,364,589,866 USG or 32,490,235 BBL

Total Variance• 31,616,967 USG or 752,784 BBL



JP5 DPA

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%


Per

cent

age




JP5 Enriched Forecast12 Month Enriched Forecast Feb 2017 – Jan 2018• 427,492,543 USG or 10,178,394 BBL


Previous 12 Months Final Demand History (FDH)• 415,048,529 USG or 9,882,108 BBL

Total Variance• -2,008,921 USG or -47,831 BBL



MUR DPA

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%


Per

cent

age




MUR Enriched Forecast12 Month Enriched Forecast Feb 2017 – Jan 2018• 45,680,596 USG or 45,680,596 BBL


Previous 12 Months Final Demand History (FDH)• 25,527,363 USG or 607,794 BBL

Total Variance• -175,509 USG or 4,178 BBL



17

Demand Planning Way AheadFully Integrate Aerospace Materials Into Demand Planning

• There is a 18 month roll-out plan

Continue to increase collaboration participation • Carriers/ships• Military Sealift Command (MSC)• High volume customer direct locations

Capture exercise data for collaboration and forecasting• Establish and identify exercise trends• Outreach to JPOs• Continue to work with SCPs

Develop a more robust demand/supply alignment process• Work closely with HQ/regional supply planners and services



Questions?

final- dla energy demand planning-forecasting overvie€¦ · · 2017-05-03• maintain integrity...

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