final (economics.enigneering sector)
TRANSCRIPT
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Vulnerability of two Engineering Sectors to shocks,
exchange rates and commodity prices
ContentsContents ..................................................................................................................... 1
Abstract ...................................................................................................................... 2
Chapter one: Introduction ........................................................................................... 3
Chapter Two: Literature Review ................................................................................. 8
Chapter Three: Research Methodology ..................................................................... 17
Chapter Four: Data Analysis ..................................................................................... 214.2 Mechanical Engineering Sector of the United Kingdom (measured by
manufacturing sectors output) ............................................................................. 23
Exchange rates and aggregate demand ............................................................... 27
Chapter Five: Conclusion .......................................................................................... 34
Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 36
Appendix A: Oil Prices ............................................................................................... 39
Appendix B: Steel Prices ........................................................................................... 68
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Abstract
Engineering sectors of a country contribute in the economy to a great extent.
The sector of engineering in United Kingdom is making the 5th part of the
overall economy of the Great Britain. It makes approximately 20% of the
entire GDP. As the engineering is the basis of many other sectors
development like in technology, research and development. The primary
resources for the generation of facilities are scarce and regulated the
manufacturing of other things used in the society. This research paper
focuses on the civil engineering and the manufacturing sectors and proves
their vulnerability to the demand and supply shocks, exchange rates, and the
commodity prices. The overall goal of this paper is to study the effects of
these economic concepts on these two sectors. Eventually the economys of
United Kingdom in terms of growth and stability is being affected.
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The background of the vulnerability of these two sectors, towards the shock
and eventually exchange rates and commodity prices is very crucial to the
understanding of the current economy decline. The most common topic in
talk shows, newspapers and magazines is current financial crisis of United
Kingdom. The recession of 2007 lay off thousands of employees. The start of
the recession was directly caused by the construction businesses as the
investors invested heavily in USA but little did they knew about the
approaching negative mood of the economy.
People took home loans and the banks lent them money. This increased the
demand of houses and the prices increased too. With more money in the
banks, the loan agents thought they should expand the money borrowers listand widen their loan disbursement reach. The over confidence made them
relax the conditions of the loan. This caused the relaxation to the people to
repay the loans. The whole situation went interconnected with the banks and
the overall world economic conditions. The recession started because of
delayed interest payments. USA, United Kingdom and most of the European
countries got badly struck by recession. The vulnerability of civil engineering
increased because the constructions businesses had to stop instantly. The
eventual affects were obvious at the commodity prices like oil and the
overall inflation of the other products in the market. As the middle east
increased the prices of the petroleum the whole world as purchaser of
petroleum from them were affected. This increased the fuel rate for the
manufacturing industry. The push of recession was faced by the whole world.
The manufacturing industry sector was struck with the recession after
effects. The overall commodity prices were revised and the basic fuel
petroleum for the industry machinery was facing the max global crises. The
recession took over the overall economy of United Kingdom and the crises
were unexpected. The whole of the EU faced these unwelcoming economic
turns.
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phenomenon is recession triggering. The GDP of Britain had been fluctuating
with a variable speed.
The GDP; Gross Domestic Product, of United Kingdom may fall with the
shrinkage and may cause the recurrence of the double dip. This double dipwill cause the shares to go down directly affecting the businesses. The
commodities prices like steel and petroleum are subjected to the
government intervention. The best policies formulation by the economists is
the fundamental requirement at this point.
With all of these economic imbalances United Kingdom is struggling with the
recession and pulling out of it. Without the faster reaction to the exchange
rates and the shocks, the recession will be worsening. It could get worse
than the recession after the World War 2.
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Chapter Two: Literature Review
The engineering sectors are the builders of a country and improve their
development. The economy of the country is directly related to the success
and failure of the engineering sector in achieving their goals as the
government allocates a lot of funds for the research and developments in the
annual budget. The scientific sectors and the manufacturing sectors of the
business are interlinked through a lot of ways. This interlinking is shown
through their impacts on the overall economy of a country.
The sixth largest economy of the world is owned by United Kingdom. Most
the energy demands are covered by the petroleum and gas. The industrial
sector is completely dependent on these to fulfill their fuel requirements.
United Kingdom civil engineering sector makes the second largest in Europe.
It employs more than 2.1 million people. The constructions make the 8.2% of
GVA. The manufacturing engineering inputs a great contribution of 75% of
R&D businesses in the economy (Excellis 2009).
Recent news at Sky, indicate that there are more drastic effects of the
recession on the civil engineering industry. The same trend has been
observed in the manufacturing engineering sector. According to a research
during 1970s 7% of the employment fall was observed in Britian. (Ajit 1977).
The shocks in constructions business affect the overall civil engineering
sector and jeopardize the development. It casts a negative impact on the
exports too (Guillaumont, Jeanneney et al. 2004). The recession in the United
Kingdom affected the civil and manufacturing engineering and hampered the
business causing shocks. The society was affected by the increased
unemployment in the engineering firms. The increase in demand of the
highly skilled professionals is another reason for the shocks produced in the
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economy of United Kingdom. The manufacturing and civil engineering sector
requires the proficient employees to work well (Ajit 1977).
The United Kingdom manufacturing engineering sector has become very
diverse over the years. There has been an increasing expertise and the jobsavailability. The jobs in Sales, R&D, post production jobs, and operations are
diverse than those before. The more skilled labor is required to fill these job
posts. The manufacturing sectors remain vulnerable to the global downturn.
This is causing the varying trend in the manufacturing purchasing index. The
domestic and export prices are falling. The investors are putting fewer
shares in the market. United Kingdom has invested in last twenty years in
2% of the GDP. Eventually the GDP of the in 2003 was 1.9% as compared tothe GDP of 1983 which was 2.2%. The future targets are high to achieve
2.5% GDP by investments (Excellis 2009).
Commodities are the raw material or semi processed things such as cotton,
oil, gas, coal and other minerals. These are the major exports of the
developing countries. The exports of these commodities have a deep impact
on the economies of the countries exporting and importing them. These
commodities prices fluctuate with the globalization and liberalization. Africaearns 90% of its exports earnings from commodities (Solignac-Lecomte
2003).
Lack of investment in United Kingdom manufacturing engineering sector has
lead to industrial crisis in Britain holistically. This is increasing the gap of
productivity between United Kingdom and most of its industrial rivals. There
is an increasing trend of rapidly growing services sector putting the
manufacturing graph down. The government has to offer some subsidies to
the manufacturing sector to bring it to the surface from the depths of
recession (EAMA 2007).
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The exchange rates are eliminated within the Europe due to the Economic
and Monetary Union. The exchange rate volatility brings about the
macroeconomic cost and its absence is like a benefit. This exchange rate
plays a significant role in the adjustment but is also incorporates the
arbitrary disruptive element role for the rest of the EU than Britain (Currie,
Britain et al. 1997). In the long run the relationship between inflation and
exchange rate movements is absolutely unsubstantiated.
The trade is directly affected by the exchange rates of pounds through
adjustment costs and uncertainty. The indirect effects are more significant.
The degree of competitiveness depends upon the exchange rate volatility on
trade prices. The exporters are willing to bear the risk the prices will raise,but if importer are willing to bear the risk, then the prices fall (Ct 1994).
The manufacturing sector has been outsourcing a lot of commodities. The
raw material obtainment from the trusted suppliers at regular basis and at
suitable prices is a big achievement of the manufacturing businesses. Over
the years, it has become a routine for most of the manufacturer engineers.
Nowadays, the value adding functions like Information technology and other
machinery is useful. This way manufacturing sector has been bidding on theprices of the commodities and they are prevailing in particular geographic
areas (McCarthy and Anagnostou 2004).
The United Kingdom manufacturing industry faced the economic recession
during 1970s. During the 1980s there was a long-drawn-out period of
expansion. During this persistent time, the United Kingdom manufacturing
market lost its shares in its domestic and world markets. The GVA fell from
26.5% to 18.8%. A positive change was the increase in job market in the
manufacturing sector. The manufacturing industry being the customer of
service industry added to a substantial level in the GDP of United Kingdom
(McCarthy and Anagnostou 2004).
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The commodities prices show sharp challenges by showing clear fluctuations
and long run trend movements. The key feature of volatility of the
commodity prices is useful information for the policy makers. The duration
and peaks of commodity price cycles act as the key inputs to steady the
macro effects of earning. The commodity exporting countries like most of the
developing countries take the volatile commodity price as the significant
policy issue (Cashin and McDermott 2002).
Shocks that produce the variations and fluctuation in the commodity prices
can exhibit untrustworthy degree of perseverance across commodities
(Cuddington and Liang 2000).
If the commodity prices shift after the decline from its peak then this means
that the prices have moved from boom to slump (Cashin and McDermott
2002). The rise in volatility of the early 1900s was due to greater amplitude
of prices movements. The rapid movements of the prices can cause some
serious consequences to the economy especially to the real income, trade
terms and conditions, and fiscal dependant countries. There are
philosophical implications for the macroeconomic stabilization (Cashin and
McDermott 2002).
The exchange rate and inflation do not conform directly to the fiscal policy
rules. These sometimes work much worse than imagination from the
recovering from the inflation. It has direct and indirect effects on exchange
rates. The indirect effect is beneficial because it triggers less fluctuation in
the interest rates (Taylor 2001). The appreciation of the exchange will cause
lower GDP. The decline in the output will result in lower inflation. The
performance improvements are also directly related to the exchange rates.
Civil engineering or the constructions business is directly affecting a lot of
other business and economic activities. The construction demand may
change with real interest rate, gross national product and unemployment.
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The nature of investment determines the latent pointer for change in
demand (Akintoye and Skitmore 1994).
The investment in the constructions sector causes expansion which means
the economic growth. This is because the construction has the multipliereffect on the economy of United Kingdom. This expansion may be growth
initiating and/or growth dependent. Construction; in the developed countries,
act as the growth dependent, because it makes investment a consequent
demand. United Kingdom has recently been showing the rising trend
private sector commercial construction whereas, there is a considerable
decline in the public sector housing, nowadays (Arku 2006).
The recession during 1980-1984 in United Kingdom, set foot for the
increased demand in the construction for the private commercial sector. This
sudden demand was caused by the lowering of the mortgages interest rates
and the tax savings. These interest rates and the general business assurance
have a overwhelming bearing on private sector workload (Dove 1991).
There is a general attitude of construction investors in constructing school,
roads, hospitals and prisons for the public welfare. The financial investors are
paying the government to support these public welfare projects, where the
government pays them the interest on this investment. The private sector
development shares a positive inelastic relationship with the GNP. This is a
derived demand emanating from the customers or the firms (Akintoye and
Skitmore 1994).
The manufacturing sector of United Kingdom is directly correlated to the
constructions sector in the private sector development terms. Recently, the
houses prices in London are considerably low as compared to the houses
prices before the recession of 2007. The real interest rates have a negative
impact on the residential investment over long time period (Akintoye and
Skitmore 1994). These trends have been explained by the manufacturing
profitability and economic conditions.
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The manufacturing and civil engineering are quite related when it comes to
witness their effects on the economy. The United Kingdom economy has
been enjoying a stable graph to the idealistic conditions. The variations
caused by the recession were shaky. The effects of recession brought a
change in the prices of houses. The effects of recession were drastic on the
pounds exchange rate. With the fall in construction business after recession,
the pound depreciated from Euro.
The shocks to economy, demand for manufacturing goods, and new
government policies and demand of goods are the leading indicators of
construction demand (Hillbrandt 1985).
The construction material, the manufacturing goods, the commodity prices
are all environmental variables. The suppliers to material and raw material
bargain on the prices of the commodity they are supplying. The good rate is
set according to the good negotiation skill owned by either of the parties.
The British manufacturing industry is contracting since last four years. If this
goes on like this, then 15% of the manufacturing industry will have to be
compromised. Two million employees would have been laid off. During 1970-
1974, there was down fall of 7% in the employment at the manufacturing
sector. That time each year, 180,000 people were being laid off. The net
contraction of the manufacturing sector was as drastic as 120,000 (Ajit
1977).
The economy stability of United Kingdom has been exemplary. Over the last
five years, the economic recession flattened a lot of businesses and the
employment situation. The constructions businesses were the most affected.
Most of the construction companies wound up because this was the only way
left. The trade with other competitor countries, slowed down. It was the
recession, but the last year December heavy snowfall also hampered the
mobility on roads to the extent that many businesses remained closed for
days. 10% of the sales at the petrol stations were declined (Reuben 2011).
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It was not only United Kingdom that faced the recession after effects but it
was faced by the whole world. The developed countries had the worst
outcomes. The developing countries also got the adverse effects. The
economies of the whole world are still struggling to overcome the
unemployment and the other economic gaps that will take time. The slow
and steady efforts towards the recovering and generating the new job posts
for the unemployed and laid off is the optimum goal of the government
nowadays.
The literature review of the United Kingdom manufacturing engineering and
civil engineering sectors has been spotlighting the concepts of demand and
supply shocks, exchange rates and the commodity prices to the economy ofUnited Kingdom. The GDP has declining effect. The interest rates are
increasing. The manufacturing sector and civil engineering sectors are both
interlinked to an un-ignorable level. The construction industry has been
booming in private sector and declining in public sector. This means that the
private investors are willing to take the construction responsibilities of the
United Kingdom. The railway tracks and parks are the innovative investment
places for the construction (Akintoye and Skitmore 1994).
The GBP exchange rates change when there is news in the underlying
fundamentals. The empirical evidences show that this exchange rate
remains disconnected in most cases from these core fundamentals (De
Grauwe, Dieci et al. 2005). The volatility of the exchange rates surpass the
other affecting economic variables when they are volatile (Baxter 1991). The
equilibrium of the exchange rates is possible but is a very rare condition. It
occurs only when other fundamental variables become considerably small
(De Grauwe, Dieci et al. 2005).
The adverse effects of recession on the construction sector have been
putting the construction businesses under the surface even in 2011. The first
quarter of 2011 was not very good for the business. Howard Archer if HIS
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Global insight, says that there are added to the growth concerns. He is
hopeful that the first quarter output statistics will possibly be revisable and
growing in the second quarter (Wearden 2011).
The United Kingdom public is concerned about their money in the banks andthe monitory decisions. There was a campaign with 7000 participants,
covered by the sky news. In the sky news latest periodical, Tony Woodley;
the joint leader of united shared with the sky reporters that What we need
is the Government to make sure that some of that money, our money, thats
gone into banks comes out into small, medium and large businesses (sky
2011).
The economy of United Kingdom is facing the aftermath of the recession. The
economy in terms of shocks, exchange rates and commodity prices are
making civil engineering and manufacturing engineering vulnerable to these
changes.
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Chapter Three: Research Methodology
This research is based on the researchers ability to conduct an efficient
research and to be able to figure out which data is important for the research
project and which is irrelevant. Then again, finding out the right data is a
challenging task given that the period selected for the task is 1997, 2002
and 2007. The official data was sometimes beyond access and therefore very
difficult to find. The aspect of data collection will be analyzed in the
limitations of the research. The research methodology portion as a whole is
going to describe the methods which were employed for the conduction of
this report. Because of the challenging nature of the data, it was very
important that the research methodology was carefully crafted out and that
it be described as efficiently as possible to the reader. This section then
serves precisely that purpose.
2.1 Research Design
The design for this research was a mixed approach meanings to say that
both a secondary data collection and a primary data collection was
conducted. Also, both a quantitative and a qualitative approach were
employed to fully analyze the collected data. The results have been shown in
graphical formats for better analysis and the analysis has been presented in
chapter three of the research report.
2.2 Primary Data collection
For the primary data collection, three variables were of focus.
i) UK pound to US dollar exchange rate for the period 1995 to 2009
ii) The commodity prices for steel (hot rolled steel) and oil (WTI crude oil)
for the period 1995 to 2009
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Moreover, the reading and the analysis of the secondary data is to tell the
researcher about the dimensions of research that have already been
covered, and thus to avoid repeating the same analysis by taking the same
route of collection and interpretation.
For this particular research, the secondary research focused on the economic
shocks, demand and supply, the dynamics, the concepts and the impacts of
the exchange rates and the concept and impact of the commodity prices on
the economy as a whole, in general terms and on manufacturing and
construction sector specifically. Thus, a qualitative and a theoretical study of
impacts of the independent variables on the dependant variable were
conducted through this.
The resources for the secondary research were mainly books and journals
available online. Web links and articles published on random websites were
completely avoided lest the report ended up including unreliable and
incredible information and data.
The books and journals used were accessed online because of the ease of
finding the required books with the correct and relevant information because
of the matching of key words. The secondary analysis then has been used to
shed light on the primary data analysis for a better overall approach to the
topic and so that the vulnerability of the manufacturing and the construction
sector could be studied from two different, but supporting dimensions.
2.4 Limitations of the Research
As mentioned earlier, the section of the report is going to talk about the
problems that were faced during the condition of the research and the
problems that would be faced by the reader if he or she is looking for a
perfect regression or correlation analysis between the same dependent and
independent variables, which means, an analysis which is low on residuals
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and other econometrics problems that company a simple ordinary least
square regression analysis.
So first things first, the problems faced during the conduction of this
research were many. For starters it was the finding out of the data. But thegovernment offices could not be contacted personally, and also because of
the bias that everything is easily available on the World Wide Web, it was
decided to search for the data online. The data found relevant enough to be
further looked into had a couple of problems then again. The first one was
that most of the data had to be purchased and since finance was a strong
constraint, that could not be done. Secondly, the data that was free and for
public information and use, was available in the form of graphs and chartswhich could not be directly copied. Thus, for regression analysis, the finding
of numerical data was an important limitation faced while data collection.
Given the problems discussed above, the regression analysis that was
expected to be carried out at the starting of this report could not be carried
out with the hoped and desired perfection. The research is limited because of
empirical imperfection however; it seeks to balance out that imbalance
through the secondary research and analysis. The secondary research hashelped greatly in covering up for the rough patches that were created by the
lack of data for the regression analysis however, the limitation that the
research paper has still exists significantly and the reader of this report
should strictly take that into account while applying the results of this report.
2.5 Ethical Issues taken into Account
Ethical issues form a major part of the research paper that are written and
therefore, this research paper carefully takes into account the fact.
However fortunately, no major ethical issue formed an obstacle in this
research primarily because the data required for this research was public
data and openly available. The secondary data that was used for this report
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however has been carefully referenced in the project as demanded by the
following of copyright rules and policies and also those of the report format.
The references are provided both in text and as a bibliography at the end of
the report for further reading and study.
Chapter Four: Data Analysis
Economy Watch (Stanley 2011) states that, the economy of the United
Kingdom is the sixth largest economy of the world in 2010 according to the
nominal GDP and the eight largest economy in the world according to the
purchasing power parity GDP.
4.1 Civil Engineering Sector of the United Kingdom (measured by
construction industry output)
Adamson and Pollington (Adamson and Pollington 2006) note that
construction is the sixth largest industry in the United Kingdom and that in
terms of its proportion of the total gross domestic product. In 2002, the
industrys output was valued at sixty five billion pounds annually which
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actually represented ten percent of the overall gross domestic product. The
following graph will depict the trend of output of the construction industry in
the United Kingdom.
As shown by the graph, starting from 1996, and the construction industry
has shown an upward trend (the data was available till 2006). The theoryabove however explains the fall of the construction sector in 2008 and 2009
and then its recovery later. Even though the graph from the official record
accounts for the trend in the civil engineering sector till 2006, the analysis
henceforth explains the till after 2006 to study what routes the output of the
construction sector took.
Corporate Watch (2011) studies the importance and the trend of the
construction industry of the United Kingdom and states that it accounts for
ten percent of the Gross domestic product of the country and employs over
1.5 million people. Since 2000, the fiscal budget of the United Kingdom has
made substantial increases to the civil engineering sector of the country to
improve public services. The 2003-2004 fiscal budgets made an increase of
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33 billion pounds to the betterment and funding of the sector which included
4,200 million pounds for transport and 137,000 million pounds for health
along with 1,600 million pounds for housing (Corporate Watch, 2011).
The interesting thing here is the fact that the civil engineering sector of theeconomy under question is led by investment, both private and public and
therefore, it is prone to the economic fluctuations that any economic variable
faces. One important incidence when the civil engineering sector was
adversely affected by the recession of the entire economy (aggregated
external factors) was in 1980s and then in early 1990s, and then it took an
upward turn in the late 1990s, owing mainly to the government financed
input into programs such that the public health, education andtransportation.
Cohen (2011) from financial Times named the construction sector of United
Kingdom as volatile and said that in the last quarter of 2010, the output of
the sector fell in the official records. The Office for national Statistics (2010)
said that the output fell by 2.5 percent however; there was definitely an
improvement from the initially low output level of 2009.
Monaghan (2010) however noted in the telegraph that the construction
sector of the United Kingdom has been the one which has been the most
affected by the economic downturn of 2008 and 2009. It has been stated
that the total construction on the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 47.1
in December 2009 and that the same index has not managed to improve
over 50 since early 2008.
4.2 Mechanical Engineering Sector of the United Kingdom
(measured by manufacturing sectors output)
Before the paper can proceed to any further explains, the graph that depicts
the trend of the manufacturing sector is proposed to be put forward:
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Figure 1 House of Commons UK, (2011)
The figure above is an important chart published by the parliament of the
United Kingdom in response to the studying of the various economic
indicators over the years before any substantial policy change is proposed.
As clearly visible from the chart above, the manufacturing output took a very
deep turn in 2009 and that the industry itself was in the phase of decline
since 2008. This means that the recession of 2008 really affected the
mechanical engineering sector of the United Kingdom where the outputactually fell by 15 percent in 2009 as compared to that in 2008. The
fortunate thing over here as depicted by the graph is the fact that the
industry again took an upward turn after 2010 and is seen to rise rather
sharply after that. It can be said that the pent up demand for the
manufacturing output actually drove the industry to new heights, one those
did not even exist before the recession in the first place. The analysis of the
situation leads the research to seeing that the government input into the
sector during the times of the recession really helped the industry to revive
and to reach greater levels of success. The reasons for the fluctuation in the
trend of output for the manufacturing sector will be analyzed in the
conclusion part. For this section of the report, it will be studied further that in
2009 again, the Manufacturing Purchasing managers index also contracted
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As visible in the chart above, the exchange rate falls around 2007 and 2008
but the fall in the construction and the manufacturing sector is felt around
2009. This means that the economy of the United Kingdom took time to
adjust to the new prices and will the new exchange rate finally made its
influence; the imports of the raw materials had become expensive. The
apparent delay in the change of exchange rate and the delay of the two
engineering sectors can also be because of the previously contracted orders.
The recommendation that the policy makers need to derive out of this is that
when the imports are low, the capital investments must be contracted so
that some price hedge can be achieved in response to a fall in the price of
the currency and thus the exchange rates.
One flaw of open economies like United Kingdom is that they are highly
affected by changes abroad (Mankiw, Gans et al. 2008). So if a recession is
occurring elsewhere, UK exports, investment and foreign exchange will
suffer. If a lot of its workers work abroad then even its employment will
suffer. But such an integration of an economy with others also provides
opportunities to smooth out changes in the business cycle. All depends onthe ability of the UK economy to absorb these changes and have policies that
eliminate the adverse effects of them.
Exchange rates and aggregate demand
Exchange rate is basically the value of a currency in terms of a foreign
currency (Copeland 2008). Exchange rate is often overlooked as a
determinant for aggregate demand; this is because net exports have a
smaller effect on aggregate demand relative to consumption, investment or
government spending. But still the impact is there quite clear (Samuelson
2005). So, a change in exchange rate will affect net exports and depending
on the intensity and direction of this change the aggregate demand curve
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the year and has been on the rise till 2010, where again it took a downward
turn, but it no fall too deep. The fall in the GDP in 2010 was because of the
economy of the United Kingdom being pegged to the Euro which fell sharply
due to the Greece financial crisis in 2010.
The Most important thing to be noted in the entire discussion is the dip the
economy of the United Kingdom took in year 2009. Why this is important
then, will be discussed in the conclusion section when this is related to
theoretically to the dips that the construction and the manufacturing sectors
of the economy took in the same year.
The Office for national Statistic (2011) however notes that manufacturing
and construction sectors of the economy as well as the mining sector had a
very significant role to play in the fluctuations of the GDP as a whole and that
if one was to study the fluctuations in the GDP, these three sectors would be
of utmost importance.
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This graph actually depicts the production of steel in United Kingdom and
shows a situation which is not very pleasant as far as investment into the
steel production sector of the economy is concerned. The labor forceemployed in the sector is seen to decline after 2001 and then can be seen to
be almost constant. As far as the production is concerned however, one can
see the fluctuations that exist and see most importantly that the steel
production in the country took a low dip in 2009 by becoming 10.1 million
tons as compared to 14.4 million tons in 2007 (before the economic
recession that is. Before that, even though there was an economic recession,
not very major that is however, in the early 1990s, the steel production is not
seen to decline. The fall in the manufacturing sector output can be because
of the high steel prices in 2008 leading to a fall in demand and thus a fall in
the production in 2009. The fall in production of 2009 then again can be seen
to have a negative impact on the manufacturing and the construction
departments of the economy who seemed to have a supply shock first
because of the increase in prices and then because of the shortages in
production. The demand of steel in the United Kingdoms economy as
explained by EEF (2010) shows that the demand dipped the most in 2009 as
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compared to any other preceding year. Not only did the imports of steel fell,
the steel supplied by the UK steel mills also fell sharply. This then meant bad
news for not only the steel manufacturing industry but also the other sectors
of the economy that required steel for their operations.
Previously, The United Kingdom has been the twelfth largest producer of
steel in the world with quality refining and extracting. However, as of today,
major shift of steel production has been towards the Asian countries of the
world with China leading the marketing today. Again, this is an example of a
supply shock for the economy of the United Kingdom owing to the fact that
competition took over the market. However, one can see the change in
terms of a demand shock as well considering that fact that the supply fell
firstly owing to the dip in demand because of high steel prices. Steel is abasic requirement for both the civil engineering and mechanical engineering
sectors of an economy and a very important part of the fluctuations in the
output of the two can be determined by the fluctuations in the prices and
quantity of the steel.
The Oil Prices
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Chapter Five: Conclusion
Finally, this section of the paper is going to study the three factors and the
two sectors of the economy. The type of analysis presented here will be
conclusive, one that has been drawn from the facts and the analysis of trendpresented in chapter four.
Now, there are the following facts that need to be stated before any further
comparison is done.
The civil engineering sector of the economy measured by the output of
the construction sector fell sharply in 2009 and improved afterwards.
The mechanical engineering sector of the economy measured by the
output of the manufacturing sector fell sharply in 2009 and improved
afterwards.
Factors:
The exchange rate of the United Kingdom (the buying power of the
country) fell in 2008 and increased again in 2009 to fall yet again in
2010 because of the Greece financial crisis
The Gross domestic product of the country fell sharply in 2009
becoming the lowest in a long time however it improved significantly
after 2009 and the economy today is not the track of growth in terms
of GDP.
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The steel prices in the United Kingdom peaked in 2008 and then fell in
2009.
The international oil prices rose to their highest historical values in
2008 and then fell again in 2009.
The conclusion that is derivable from the facts in not difficult to see at all and
is actually quite apparent. However, for simplicity sake and for the
betterment of the analysis, the ceteris paribus effect is assumed. This means
that it is assumed that each of the three factors affected the two dependent
factors individually while the other factors remained constant.
As can be seen then, there seems to be a negative relationship between theoil prices and the steel prices and the output of the two sectors. This is
because the rise in the cost of production limits the profits that can be
derived from the production and therefore the organizations limited their
production to marginalize profits.
As far as GDP is concerned however, there seems to be a positive
relationship between the two dependant variable and GDP. As the GDP fell,
so did the two engineering sectors. It can also be seen in this way that as thetwo important sectors of the economy fell, so did the GDP.
Finally, the exchange rate also seems to have a negative relationship with
the two engineering sectors because a rise in value of pound makes the
exports of the country and investing into the country more expensive, thus
discouraging the two.
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Appendix
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Appendix A: Oil PricesBack toContents
Data 1:WeeklyEurope (UK)Brent Blend
Spot PriceFOB (Dollarsper Barrel)
Sourcekey WEPCBRENT
Date WeeklyEurope (UK)Brent BlendSpot PriceFOB (Dollarsper Barrel)
Jan 06,1989
15.8
Jan 05,1990
21
Jan 04,1991
27.2
Jan 03,1992
17.75
Jan 01,1993
17.9
Jan 07,1994
13.15
Jan 06,
1995
16.15
Jan 05,1996
19.37
Jan 03,1997
24.05
Jan 10,1997
24.43
Jan 17,1997
22.99
Jan 24,1997
22.81
Jan 31,
1997
23.37
Feb 07,1997
21.86
Feb 14,1997
20.7
Feb 21,1997
20.14
Feb 28, 19.34
http://opt/scribd/conversion/Ayesha%20Arshad/Desktop/Sparkles%20soft/Oil%20price.xls#Contents!A1http://opt/scribd/conversion/Ayesha%20Arshad/Desktop/Sparkles%20soft/Oil%20price.xls#Contents!A1http://opt/scribd/conversion/Ayesha%20Arshad/Desktop/Sparkles%20soft/Oil%20price.xls#Contents!A1http://opt/scribd/conversion/Ayesha%20Arshad/Desktop/Sparkles%20soft/Oil%20price.xls#Contents!A1 -
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41/76
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1998
Feb 06,1998
14.8
Feb 13,1998
14.07
Feb 20,1998
13.71
Feb 27,1998
13.3
Mar 06,1998
12.95
Mar 13,1998
12.44
Mar 20,1998
12.29
Mar 27,1998
14.99
Apr 03,1998
13.74
Apr 10,1998
13.2
Apr 17,1998
13.9
Apr 24,1998
13.33
May 01,1998
14.32
May 08,1998
14.01
May 15,1998
14.69
May 22,1998
14.42
May 29,1998
14.68
Jun 05,1998
13.08
Jun 12,1998
11.67
Jun 19,
1998
10.9
Jun 26,1998
12.29
Jul 03,1998
12.13
Jul 10,1998
14
Jul 17, 12.43
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1998
Jul 24,1998
12.16
Jul 31,1998
12.61
Aug 07,1998
12.03
Aug 14,1998
11.74
Aug 21,1998
12.07
Aug 28,1998
12.04
Sep 04,1998
13.01
Sep 11,1998
12.82
Sep 18,1998
13.48
Sep 25,1998
14.78
Oct 02,1998
14.15
Oct 09,1998
13.08
Oct 16,1998
12.17
Oct 23,1998
11.81
Oct 30,1998
12.03
Nov 06,1998
11.42
Nov 13,1998
11.76
Nov 20,1998
10.68
Nov 27,1998
10.53
Dec 04,
1998
9.33
Dec 11,1998
9.2
Dec 18,1998
9.55
Dec 25,1998
10.02
Jan 01, 10.44
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
44/76
1999
Jan 08,1999
11.57
Jan 15,1999
10.95
Jan 22,1999
11.2
Jan 29,1999
11.04
Feb 05,1999
10.18
Feb 12,1999
10.06
Feb 19,1999
10.21
Feb 26,1999
10.73
Mar 05,1999
11.1
Mar 12,1999
12.06
Mar 19,1999
13.05
Mar 26,1999
13.82
Apr 02,1999
14.56
Apr 09,1999
14.36
Apr 16,1999
15.08
Apr 23,1999
15.93
Apr 30,1999
16.6
May 07,1999
15.38
May 14,1999
15.13
May 21,
1999
14.63
May 28,1999
14.74
Jun 04,1999
14.83
Jun 11,1999
16.15
Jun 18, 16.03
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
45/76
1999
Jun 25,1999
16.33
Jul 02,1999
17.32
Jul 09,1999
18.68
Jul 16,1999
19.45
Jul 23,1999
19.39
Jul 30,1999
19.86
Aug 06,1999
19.92
Aug 13,1999
20.68
Aug 20,1999
21.23
Aug 27,1999
20.21
Sep 03,1999
20.8
Sep 10,1999
22.71
Sep 17,1999
22.97
Sep 24,1999
23.41
Oct 01,1999
22.83
Oct 08,1999
20.81
Oct 15,1999
21.75
Oct 22,1999
22.08
Oct 29,1999
21.14
Nov 05,
1999
22.89
Nov 12,1999
25.08
Nov 19,1999
25.08
Nov 26,1999
25.25
Dec 03, 26
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1999
Dec 10,1999
24.99
Dec 24,1999
24.77
Dec 31,1999
25.1
Jan 07,2000
23.26
Jan 14,2000
25.39
Jan 21,2000
27.18
Jan 28,2000
26.17
Feb 04,2000
27.49
Feb 11,2000
27.37
Feb 18,2000
27.85
Feb 25,2000
28.69
Mar 03,2000
30.05
Mar 10,2000
29.22
Mar 17,2000
27.61
Mar 24,2000
25.36
Mar 31,2000
24.07
Apr 07,2000
23.3
Apr 14,2000
22.23
Apr 21,2000
23.46
Apr 28,
2000
23.4
May 05,2000
24.83
May 12,2000
28.67
May 19,2000
28.93
May 26, 30.06
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47/76
2000
Jun 02,2000
29.1
Jun 09,2000
28.52
Jun 16,2000
29.94
Jun 23,2000
30.8
Jun 30,2000
31.82
Jul 07,2000
30.49
Jul 14,2000
30.52
Jul 21,2000
26.87
Jul 28,2000
25.85
Aug 04,2000
27.63
Aug 11,2000
29.18
Aug 18,2000
30.73
Aug 25,2000
30.38
Sep 08,2000
36.26
Sep 15,2000
32.77
Sep 22,2000
32.43
Sep 29,2000
28.48
Oct 06,2000
29.62
Oct 13,2000
33.39
Oct 20,
2000
30.56
Oct 27,2000
31.24
Nov 03,2000
30.54
Nov 10,2000
32.28
Nov 17, 33.43
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
48/76
2000
Nov 24,2000
32.98
Dec 01,2000
31.12
Dec 08,2000
26.86
Dec 15,2000
25.45
Dec 22,2000
22.23
Dec 29,2000
22.5
Jan 05,2001
24.52
Jan 12,2001
25.53
Jan 19,2001
26.23
Jan 26,2001
26.46
Feb 02,2001
28.67
Feb 09,2001
29.67
Feb 16,2001
26.61
Feb 23,2001
26.08
Mar 02,2001
25.27
Mar 09,2001
25.65
Mar 16,2001
24.11
Mar 23,2001
23.76
Mar 30,2001
23.85
Apr 06,
2001
23.97
Apr 13,2001
26.45
Apr 20,2001
25.54
Apr 27,2001
27.02
May 04, 27.4
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
49/76
2001
May 11,2001
27.78
May 18,2001
29.44
May 25,2001
28.79
Jun 01,2001
28.81
Jun 08,2001
29.55
Jun 15,2001
28.19
Jun 22,2001
26.61
Jun 29,2001
26.13
Jul 06,2001
26.34
Jul 13,2001
23.9
Jul 20,2001
23.09
Jul 27,2001
24.49
Aug 03,2001
25.52
Aug 10,2001
25.75
Aug 17,2001
24.74
Aug 24,2001
26.13
Aug 31,2001
26.68
Sep 07,2001
27.4
Sep 14,2001
29.01
Sep 21,
2001
25
Sep 28,2001
21.69
Oct 05,2001
21.29
Oct 12,2001
20.5
Oct 19, 19.8
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
50/76
2001
Oct 26,2001
20.23
Nov 02,2001
19.49
Nov 09,2001
19.6
Nov 16,2001
16.98
Nov 23,2001
19.47
Nov 30,2001
18.87
Dec 07,2001
17.66
Dec 14,2001
18.42
Dec 21,2001
18.6
Dec 28,2001
19.75
Jan 04,2002
21.2
Jan 11,2002
19.93
Jan 18,2002
18.14
Jan 25,2002
19.12
Feb 01,2002
19.74
Feb 08,2002
20.09
Feb 15,2002
20.68
Feb 22,2002
20.06
Mar 01,2002
21.86
Mar 08,
2002
22.24
Mar 15,2002
23.78
Mar 22,2002
24.87
Mar 29,2002
25.15
Apr 05, 25.97
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
51/76
2002
Apr 12,2002
23.2
Apr 19,2002
25.33
Apr 26,2002
26.86
May 03,2002
25.76
May 10,2002
26.43
May 17,2002
25.43
May 24,2002
24.17
May 31,2002
23.87
Jun 07,2002
23.26
Jun 14,2002
24.09
Jun 21,2002
24.07
Jun 28,2002
25.31
Jul 05,2002
25.78
Jul 12,2002
25.86
Jul 19,2002
26.17
Jul 26,2002
25.2
Aug 02,2002
25.51
Aug 09,2002
25.37
Aug 16,2002
26.76
Aug 23,
2002
27.55
Aug 30,2002
27.33
Sep 06,2002
28.7
Sep 13,2002
28.47
Sep 20, 28.17
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
52/76
2002
Sep 27,2002
28.96
Oct 04,2002
28.82
Oct 11,2002
28.07
Oct 18,2002
28.39
Oct 25,2002
27.05
Nov 01,2002
25.62
Nov 08,2002
24.79
Nov 15,2002
23.38
Nov 22,2002
23.91
Nov 29,2002
24.81
Dec 06,2002
25.56
Dec 13,2002
25.6
Dec 20,2002
29.73
Dec 27,2002
30.51
Jan 03,2003
31.36
Jan 10,2003
30.1
Jan 17,2003
31.45
Jan 24,2003
31.81
Jan 31,2003
31.8
Feb 07,
2003
31.75
Feb 14,2003
32.41
Feb 21,2003
33.06
Feb 28,2003
33.85
Mar 07, 33.9
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
53/76
2003
Mar 14,2003
34.18
Mar 21,2003
29.25
Mar 28,2003
26.2
Apr 04,2003
26.89
Apr 11,2003
25.36
Apr 18,2003
24.56
Apr 25,2003
24.93
May 02,2003
23.5
May 09,2003
23.7
May 16,2003
25.74
May 23,2003
27.18
May 30,2003
26.55
Jun 06,2003
27.58
Jun 13,2003
28.39
Jun 20,2003
26.68
Jun 27,2003
27.1
Jul 04,2003
27.92
Jul 11,2003
28.15
Jul 18,2003
28.7
Jul 25,
2003
28.33
Aug 01,2003
28.23
Aug 08,2003
30.14
Aug 15,2003
29.59
Aug 22, 29.14
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
54/76
2003
Aug 29,2003
29.77
Sep 05,2003
28.38
Sep 12,2003
26.59
Sep 19,2003
25.8
Sep 26,2003
26.13
Oct 03,2003
28.11
Oct 10,2003
29.19
Oct 17,2003
31.11
Oct 24,2003
29.49
Oct 31,2003
28.8
Nov 07,2003
28.02
Nov 14,2003
28.71
Nov 21,2003
29.42
Nov 28,2003
28.46
Dec 05,2003
28.87
Dec 12,2003
29.87
Dec 19,2003
30.4
Dec 26,2003
30.04
Jan 02,2004
29.73
Jan 09,
2004
31.11
Jan 16,2004
31.96
Jan 23,2004
31.59
Jan 30,2004
30.53
Feb 06, 29.6
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
55/76
2004
Feb 13,2004
29.9
Feb 20,2004
31.04
Feb 27,2004
31.9
Mar 05,2004
33.48
Mar 12,2004
33.88
Mar 19,2004
34.17
Mar 26,2004
34.19
Apr 02,2004
32.59
Apr 09,2004
31.63
Apr 16,2004
33.45
Apr 23,2004
33.26
Apr 30,2004
33.86
May 07,2004
36.3
May 14,2004
37.8
May 21,2004
38.74
May 28,2004
37.91
Jun 04,2004
37.78
Jun 11,2004
35.48
Jun 18,2004
35.1
Jun 25,
2004
34.96
Jul 02,2004
33.41
Jul 09,2004
36.16
Jul 16,2004
37.48
Jul 23, 38.96
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
56/76
2004
Jul 30,2004
40.18
Aug 06,2004
42.25
Aug 13,2004
43.53
Aug 20,2004
44.74
Aug 27,2004
43
Sep 03,2004
40.9
Sep 10,2004
41.14
Sep 17,2004
41.87
Sep 24,2004
44.12
Oct 01,2004
47.04
Oct 08,2004
47.46
Oct 15,2004
50.44
Oct 22,2004
49.91
Oct 29,2004
51.48
Nov 05,2004
46.25
Nov 12,2004
43.38
Nov 19,2004
40.53
Nov 26,2004
42.65
Dec 03,2004
42.06
Dec 10,
2004
37.98
Dec 17,2004
38.21
Dec 24,2004
42.86
Dec 31,2004
39.43
Jan 07, 41.39
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
57/76
2005
Jan 14,2005
43.84
Jan 21,2005
44.92
Jan 28,2005
46.09
Feb 04,2005
44.28
Feb 11,2005
43.39
Feb 18,2005
44.77
Feb 25,2005
47.45
Mar 04,2005
50.74
Mar 11,2005
52.89
Mar 18,2005
53.95
Mar 25,2005
54.81
Apr 01,2005
52.15
Apr 08,2005
54.43
Apr 15,2005
51.44
Apr 22,2005
51.42
Apr 29,2005
51.88
May 06,2005
49.86
May 13,2005
49.1
May 20,2005
47.25
May 27,
2005
47.95
Jun 03,2005
51.21
Jun 10,2005
53.26
Jun 17,2005
53.57
Jun 24, 56.73
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
58/76
2005
Jul 01,2005
56.81
Jul 08,2005
57.73
Jul 15,2005
57.63
Jul 22,2005
56.56
Jul 29,2005
57.39
Aug 05,2005
59.97
Aug 12,2005
62.41
Aug 19,2005
65.84
Aug 26,2005
64.57
Sep 02,2005
66.34
Sep 09,2005
65.82
Sep 16,2005
62.15
Sep 23,2005
62.36
Sep 30,2005
62.47
Oct 07,2005
60.66
Oct 14,2005
58.57
Oct 21,2005
57.99
Oct 28,2005
58.3
Nov 04,2005
58.76
Nov 11,
2005
57.71
Nov 18,2005
53.99
Nov 25,2005
53.57
Dec 02,2005
53.23
Dec 09, 55.99
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
59/76
2005
Dec 16,2005
58.47
Dec 23,2005
56.82
Dec 30,2005
57.25
Jan 06,2006
60.93
Jan 13,2006
62.42
Jan 20,2006
63.09
Jan 27,2006
63.99
Feb 03,2006
64.73
Feb 10,2006
61.84
Feb 17,2006
58.41
Feb 24,2006
58.5
Mar 03,2006
60.39
Mar 10,2006
60.73
Mar 17,2006
61.39
Mar 24,2006
61.71
Mar 31,2006
64.16
Apr 07,2006
66.82
Apr 14,2006
68.28
Apr 21,2006
72.1
Apr 28,
2006
73.07
May 05,2006
72.96
May 12,2006
70.47
May 19,2006
68.86
May 26, 67.96
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
60/76
2006
Jun 02,2006
69.43
Jun 09,2006
68.06
Jun 16,2006
66.83
Jun 23,2006
67.24
Jun 30,2006
71.1
Jul 07,2006
73.26
Jul 14,2006
73.78
Jul 21,2006
74.24
Jul 28,2006
73.39
Aug 04,2006
75.78
Aug 11,2006
77.33
Aug 18,2006
73.37
Aug 25,2006
71.51
Sep 01,2006
68.09
Sep 08,2006
65.64
Sep 15,2006
62.97
Sep 22,2006
60.49
Sep 29,2006
58.72
Oct 06,2006
57.89
Oct 13,
2006
57.79
Oct 20,2006
57.67
Oct 27,2006
57.66
Nov 03,2006
57.74
Nov 10, 59.33
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
61/76
2006
Nov 17,2006
58.46
Nov 24,2006
58.42
Dec 01,2006
61.83
Dec 08,2006
64.37
Dec 15,2006
62.34
Dec 22,2006
62.44
Dec 29,2006
60.5
Jan 05,2007
56.66
Jan 12,2007
51.82
Jan 19,2007
50.98
Jan 26,2007
53.8
Feb 02,2007
55.7
Feb 09,2007
57.45
Feb 16,2007
55.85
Feb 23,2007
57.2
Mar 02,2007
60.87
Mar 09,2007
60.74
Mar 16,2007
60.69
Mar 23,2007
60.85
Mar 30,
2007
64.98
Apr 06,2007
68.57
Apr 13,2007
67.85
Apr 20,2007
66.78
Apr 27, 67.13
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
62/76
2007
May 04,2007
66.92
May 11,2007
66.92
May 18,2007
66.92
May 25,2007
70.32
Jun 01,2007
68.91
Jun 08,2007
70.7
Jun 15,2007
69.57
Jun 22,2007
72.05
Jun 29,2007
71.69
Jul 06,2007
72.75
Jul 13,2007
76.9
Jul 20,2007
78.35
Jul 27,2007
77.22
Aug 03,2007
76.53
Aug 10,2007
71.87
Aug 17,2007
69.79
Aug 24,2007
68.54
Aug 31,2007
70.22
Sep 07,2007
74.27
Sep 14,
2007
76.14
Sep 21,2007
77.46
Sep 28,2007
77.96
Oct 05,2007
78.07
Oct 12, 78.66
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
63/76
2007
Oct 19,2007
83.61
Oct 26,2007
84.14
Nov 02,2007
89.4
Nov 09,2007
93.52
Nov 16,2007
90.77
Nov 23,2007
94.7
Nov 30,2007
94.79
Dec 07,2007
90.63
Dec 14,2007
91.43
Dec 21,2007
92.49
Dec 28,2007
93.25
Jan 04,2008
98.42
Jan 11,2008
97.82
Jan 18,2008
91.96
Jan 25,2008
89.68
Feb 01,2008
93.15
Feb 08,2008
91.52
Feb 15,2008
95.41
Feb 22,2008
98.83
Feb 29,
2008
99.69
Mar 07,2008
102.3
Mar 14,2008
107.94
Mar 21,2008
106.21
Mar 28, 103.99
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
64/76
2008
Apr 04,2008
101.35
Apr 11,2008
107
Apr 18,2008
111.44
Apr 25,2008
114.64
May 02,2008
113.52
May 09,2008
118.77
May 16,2008
123.45
May 23,2008
126.33
May 30,2008
130.13
Jun 06,2008
125.47
Jun 13,2008
134.87
Jun 20,2008
133.85
Jun 27,2008
135.98
Jul 04,2008
142.45
Jul 11,2008
137.81
Jul 18,2008
139.34
Jul 25,2008
129.16
Aug 01,2008
125.29
Aug 08,2008
120.15
Aug 15,
2008
114.01
Aug 22,2008
110.1
Aug 29,2008
115.11
Sep 05,2008
108.46
Sep 12, 101.61
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
65/76
2008
Sep 19,2008
92.89
Sep 26,2008
101.41
Oct 03,2008
96.2
Oct 10,2008
83.8
Oct 17,2008
71.95
Oct 24,2008
65.54
Oct 31,2008
60.71
Nov 07,2008
60.45
Nov 14,2008
53.32
Nov 21,2008
49.15
Nov 28,2008
48.96
Dec 05,2008
45.15
Dec 12,2008
41.17
Dec 19,2008
42.68
Dec 26,2008
36.31
Jan 02,2009
34.33
Jan 09,2009
44.52
Jan 16,2009
42.37
Jan 23,2009
44.01
Jan 30,
2009
43.8
Feb 06,2009
43.63
Feb 13,2009
45.17
Feb 20,2009
42.29
Feb 27, 41.97
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
66/76
2009
Mar 06,2009
44.16
Mar 13,2009
44.04
Mar 20,2009
45.8
Mar 27,2009
51.19
Apr 03,2009
48.58
Apr 10,2009
51.4
Apr 17,2009
51.7
Apr 24,2009
49.16
May 01,2009
49.78
May 08,2009
53.89
May 15,2009
56.5
May 22,2009
57.63
May 29,2009
60.59
Jun 05,2009
66.55
Jun 12,2009
69.41
Jun 19,2009
69.7
Jun 26,2009
68.52
Jul 03,2009
67.96
Jul 10,2009
61.58
Jul 17,
2009
60.25
Jul 24,2009
65.67
Jul 31,2009
68.59
Aug 07,2009
72.89
Aug 14, 73.14
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
67/76
2009
Aug 21,2009
71.42
Aug 28,2009
72.22
Sep 04,2009
68.94
Sep 11,2009
68.56
Sep 18,2009
68.22
Sep 25,2009
67.28
Oct 02,2009
65.45
Oct 09,2009
67.29
Oct 16,2009
71.47
Oct 23,2009
76.76
Oct 30,2009
76.8
Nov 06,2009
76.53
Nov 13,2009
76.6
Nov 20,2009
77
Nov 27,2009
76.47
Dec 04,2009
77.24
Dec 11,2009
74.7
Dec 18,2009
71.48
Dec 25,2009
72.91
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?
n=PET&s=WEPCBRENT&f=W
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Appendix B: Steel PricesDataset
Name:
ppi
Title: Producer prices: Index numbers of input and output prices (SIC07)
Description:
Index number of input and output prices, 2005=100 (SIC07)
Source: Office for National Statistics
Substitution Details:
Value Meaning
.. not available
====================================
Series Characteristics:
Series
Identifier
Type of price Industry Seasonali
ty
K646 Input prices(materials andfuel)
All manufacturing inc CCL not seasonallyadjusted
K655 Input prices(materials andfuel)
Manufacturing excluding food,beverages, tobacco andpetroleum, inc CCL
not seasonallyadjusted
K658 Input prices(materials andfuel)
Manufacturing excluding food,beverages, tobacco andpetroleum, inc CCL
Seasonallyadjusted
JVZ7 Output prices(home sales) All manufacturing not seasonallyadjustedK3BI Output prices
(home sales)Manufacturing excluding food not seasonally
adjusted
JVZ8 Output pricesexcludingexcise duty
All manufacturing not seasonallyadjusted
====================================
Table
K646 K655 K658
JVZ7
K3BI
JVZ8
1996 103.2 110.3 110
.3
94.
1
102
.3
97.
71997 94.7 103.3 103
.395 102
.697.8
1998 86.1 98.5 98.5
95 101.7
96.9
1999 85 95 95 95.6
100.7
96.6
2000 91.3 98.5 98. 96. 100 97.
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
69/76
5 9 .2 4
2001 90.2 97.3 97.3
96.6
99.6
97.1
2002 86.2 92.6 92.6
96.5
99.2
97
2003 87.2 92 92 97.1 99.3 97.52004 90.1 93.5 93.
598.1
99 98.1
2005 100 100 100 100 100 100
2006 109.8 107.2 107.3
102 101.5
102
2007 113 109.8 109.8
104.4
102.9
104.1
2008 138.1 128.4 128.4
111.4
106.7
111.1
2009 132.9 130.5 130
.5
113
.2
109
.4
112
.22010 146.1 138 137
.9117.9
112.7
116.6
1996 01 106.2 115.8 114.3
93.5
102.1
97.1
1996 02 105.4 114.8 113.8
93.6
102.2
97.2
1996 03 105.6 112.8 112.8
93.8
102.5
97.5
1996 04 106.1 111.8 112.3
94.2
102.6
97.9
1996 05 104.5 110.9 111.3 94.1 102.6 97.91996 06 103.4 109.7 110
.593.9
102.5
97.7
1996 07 101.4 108.2 109.4
93.8
102.3
97.5
1996 08 100.8 108.2 108.8
94 102.3
97.6
1996 09 101.3 107.7 108.3
94.3
102.3
97.9
1996 10 101.8 107.9 108.1
94.4
102.2
97.9
1996 11 100.4 107.9 107.3
94.4
102.3
97.9
1996 12 101.3 108.5 107.2
94.7
102.3
97.8
1997 01 100.6 107.7 106.3
94.9
102.5
98
1997 02 98.7 106.1 105.3
94.7
102.5
97.7
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
70/76
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
71/76
-
8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
72/76
2001 03 91.5 99.6 99.3
96.6
99.8
97
2001 04 92.2 99.6 99.6
96.8
99.8
97.3
2001 05 93.3 99.1 99.3
97.1
99.8
97.7
2001 06 93.1 98.7 99 97 99.7
97.7
2001 07 90.5 97.1 97.7
96.8
99.6
97.4
2001 08 89.5 95.6 96 96.7
99.5
97.3
2001 09 88.6 94.8 95.2
96.7
99.4
97.3
2001 10 86.1 94.1 94.4
96.5
99.4
97.1
2001 11 86 94.1 93.
8
95.
9
99.
3
96.
52001 12 85.6 93.8 93.
295.9
99.2
96.3
2002 01 86 93.8 93.5
96 99.2
96.5
2002 02 86 93.7 93.3
96 99 96.4
2002 03 87.1 93.7 93.3
96.1
99 96.6
2002 04 87.2 93.3 93.2
96.5
99.1
97
2002 05 86.6 92.9 93.1
96.7
99.2
97.2
2002 06 86.2 92.9 93.2
96.6
99.2
97.1
2002 07 85.7 92.1 92.5
96.6
99.3
97
2002 08 86.2 92.1 92.5
96.6
99.3
97
2002 09 86.2 91.6 92.1
96.7
99.3
97.2
2002 10 85.9 91.5 91.8
96.8
99.3
97.3
2002 11 84.6 91.6 91.3
96.7
99.3
97.1
2002 12 86.7 92.3 91.7
96.7
99.4
97.2
2003 01 87.5 91.7 91.5
97 99.5
97.5
2003 02 88.3 92.3 92 97 99.4
97.5
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
73/76
2003 03 88.4 93 92.5
97.5
99.4
98
2003 04 85.9 92.1 92 97.3
99.4
97.7
2003 05 85.4 91.7 91.9
97 99.3
97.4
2003 06 85.8 91.2 91.5
97 99.2
97.3
2003 07 86.5 91.4 91.7
97 99.2
97.3
2003 08 88.1 92 92.3
97.1
99.2
97.4
2003 09 86.8 91.7 92.3
97 99.2
97.4
2003 10 87.6 92.1 92.5
97.1
99.1
97.3
2003 11 88 92.5 92.
2
97.
2
99.
1
97.
42003 12 88.1 92.5 91.
897.2
99.1
97.4
2004 01 87.1 91.7 91.4
97.2
99 97.4
2004 02 86.5 91.2 91 97.2
98.8
97.3
2004 03 88.6 92.5 91.9
97.3
98.7
97.4
2004 04 88.5 92.6 92.4
97.6
98.7
97.6
2004 05 90.5 93.4 93.7
98.1
98.8
98.1
2004 06 88.8 92.6 93 98.1
98.9
98.1
2004 07 89.5 92.8 92.9
98.2
99 98.2
2004 08 91.6 93.8 94.1
98.2
99.1
98.3
2004 09 92.6 94.7 95.4
98.6
99.3
98.6
2004 10 94.8 96.1 96.6
98.9
99.4
98.9
2004 11 92.6 95.9 95.5
98.9
99.4
99
2004 12 90.6 95.1 94.4
98.7
99.5
98.8
2005 01 93.8 96.6 96.2
98.5
99.6
98.6
2005 02 94.3 96.8 96.7
98.7
99.6
98.8
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
74/76
2005 03 96.7 97.7 97 99.2
99.8
99.3
2005 04 96.2 97.5 97.3
99.8
99.8
99.8
2005 05 96 97.6 97.8
99.7
99.8
99.6
2005 06 98.6 98.4 98.8
99.8
99.8
99.7
2005 07 102 100.5 100.5
100.4
100.1
100.3
2005 08 103.3 100.6 101 100.5
100.1
100.4
2005 09 102.1 100.3 101.2
100.9
100.1
100.8
2005 10 103 102 102.6
101 100.3
101
2005 11 106 105.1 104
.7
100
.8
100
.4
100
.82005 12 108 107 106
.2100.7
100.6
100.8
2006 01 109.7 107.4 106.9
101.1
101 101.2
2006 02 109.3 107.3 107.2
101.1
101 101.2
2006 03 110 107.3 106.5
101.4
101.3
101.5
2006 04 111.9 107.7 107.5
101.9
101.4
101.9
2006 05 109.7 106.4 106.6
102.3
101.4
102.2
2006 06 109.8 106.4 106.8
102.4
101.5
102.4
2006 07 112.6 107.9 107.9
102.7
101.6
102.6
2006 08 111.7 107.2 107.8
102.8
101.7
102.7
2006 09 107.7 105.9 106.9
102.4
101.8
102.4
2006 10 107 106.8 107.4
102 101.9
102
2006 11 108.4 108.2 107.8
102 101.9
102
2006 12 109.4 108.4 107.8
102.2
101.9
102
2007 01 105.7 106.9 106.3
102.4
102.2
102.2
2007 02 106.9 107.2 107.1
102.6
102.5
102.5
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
75/76
2007 03 109.4 108.4 107.5
103.2
102.8
103.1
2007 04 109.8 107.6 107.5
103.5
102.7
103.3
2007 05 110.2 108.2 108.3
103.9
102.8
103.6
2007 06 111.6 108.7 109.1
104.2
102.8
103.9
2007 07 112.9 108.7 108.7
104.4
102.9
104.2
2007 08 111.5 108.5 109.2
104.5
103.1
104.3
2007 09 114.3 110.1 111.1
104.8
103.1
104.7
2007 10 117.5 112 112.7
105.6
103.3
105.2
2007 11 121.8 114.4 114
.2
106
.4
103
.4
106
.12007 12 124.2 116.4 115
.9106.9
103.6
106.5
2008 01 127.7 118.9 118.4
107.8
104.5
107.6
2008 02 130 120.7 120.6
108.2
104.6
107.9
2008 03 133.5 123.3 122 109.3
105.1
109
2008 04 138.3 126 125.9
110.4
105.4
109.8
2008 05 144.2 129.2 129 111.9
105.9
111.5
2008 06 150.5 132.3 132.6
112.9
106.4
112.6
2008 07 149.2 132.7 132.7
113.6
107.2
113.4
2008 08 144.7 131.6 132.6
113.4
107.6
113.2
2008 09 142 131.6 132.8
113.5
108.2
113.5
2008 10 136 130.9 131.6
112.6
108.3
112.5
2008 11 132.1 131.3 131.3
111.8
108.6
111.7
2008 12 128.8 131.8 131.4
111.6
108.5
110.9
2009 01 130.1 132.5 131.9
111.6
108.8
110.9
2009 02 130.6 131.4 131.3
111.6
108.8
110.9
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8/6/2019 Final (Economics.enigneering Sector)
76/76
2009 03 132.6 132.3 130.8
111.7
108.9
111.1
2009 04 130 129.2 129.1
112.4
109.1
111.5
2009 05 130.9 129 128.5
112.7
109.1
111.7
2009 06 131.5 127.7 128 113.1
108.9
112.1
2009 07 130.5 127.7 127.8
113.3
109.1
112.2
2009 08 133.3 128.8 129.9
113.4
109.2
112.4
2009 09 133.4 130.3 131.4
113.9
109.6
112.7
2009 10 137.1 132.4 133 114.3
110.1
113.1
2009 11 137.3 132.1 132
.1
114
.7
110
.2
113
.62009 12 137.9 132.8 132
.5115.2
110.8
114.1