final presentation (final)
TRANSCRIPT
Presents:How Many Americans Died of the Russian Flu?ROBERT LEGGE, JONATHAN WALTON, ELIJAH FIORESPONSOR: PROFESSOR TOM EWING, DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY
KG3 Presents:
2Problem StatementHow many people died of the Russian Flu between December 1889 and January 1890 in the United States?
Russian Flu killed an estimated 1 million worldwide
Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million worldwide, infected 500 million
1890 Census is the primary source of data“Acting in concert we ought to knock out the
town”Evening World (NYC)
January 7, 1890
3What is the Census?
4Literature Review Only a handful of articles exist on the Russian Flu.
French study examining age distribution of the epidemic based on census data from 15 countries
Paper by J.F. Brundage investigating case rates and death rates from different strains of influenza in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine
Professor Ewing’s theory is well cited in his exploratory article on the Vital Statistics data. He illustrates a lack of reported “La Grippe” cases paired with an abundance of other reported diseases such as pneumonia.
5Design CriteriaVisualizations Usefulness Ease of Understanding Run-time Aesthetic Appeal
Mathematical Modeling Historical Validity Timeliness Usability Model Adaptability
6Design Approach1. Statistical Analysis
Compare 1890 Census to 1880 and 1900 Censuses Disease fatality statistics
2. Mathematical Modeling SEIR model
3. Visualizations
Mathematical Modeling
7Based on the Census Data1890 Population 1890 La Grippe Deaths
8Grouping
9Excess Analysis Method
10Bronchitis Deaths Per 100,000
Excess
North East (Group 1)Heartland and Mid-Atlantic Midwest and South
West
11Group-Wise Excess La Grippe Deaths
1890 Population 1890 La Grippe Deaths
12La Grippe Reported vs. Plus Excess
Reported La Grippe Deaths
Estimated Excess Deaths
Total La Grippe Deaths Plus Excess Deaths
Group 1 2,177 9,360 11,537Total US 13,049 9,360 22,409
13La Grippe Reported vs. Plus Excess
1890 La Grippe Deaths 1890 La Grippe Deaths Plus Excess
14Quantitative Results
Reported Death
Estimated Excess Deaths
Bronchitis 21,420 4,702Pneumonia 76,578 3,127Consumption 102,727 4,599Totals 200,725 12,428
1890 La Grippe Deaths
Total Reported 13,049Total Estimated with Excess
25,477
15Validation - Scarlet Fever Scarlet Fever is easily identifiable by a red rash Using Excess Analysis should not return any excess One state out of 46 showed excess Likely an outlier, but no way to be sure Shows that the method works
16Scarlet Fever Deaths Per 100,000North East
Heartland and Mid-Atlantic Midwest and South
West
17Deliverables
18Limitations Data that did exist was not in a usable format
Not enough time to enter available data
Time constraints
Inconsistent reporting across Census data
1890 Census
1880 Census
19Lessons Learned Difficulty of solving a historical problem
Be more realistic
Parallelize tasks better
Communication is key
20Conclusion Our conservative estimate suggests 25,477 deaths, compared to 13,049
reported
11,537 were in Group 1 (North East area)
Unable to verify our results due to the nature of the data
Stepping stone for future analysis as more data is gathered
Thank you to Professor Ewing and Dr. Embree for their mentorship and guidance
Questions