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NGPL 2019 Customer Meeting August 20, 2019 Abbey Resort Fontana, Wisconsin 1

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Page 1: Final Presentation.pptx [Read-Only] - Kinder Morgan · 2019-08-20 · , rs ] v 9 } ( ( } u E } u o E } u o E } À u í ó õ í î ð 9 u ~ í ð î ô ó 9

NGPL 2019 Customer MeetingAugust 20, 2019

Abbey Resort Fontana, Wisconsin

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Ameren Illinois Vonda Seckler Black Hills Service Co. Jodi Culp BP Canada Energy Marketing Corp. Jennifer Fitch-Clayton Citadel Americas LLC Amine Alaoui Cheniere Energy Eric Franco Wes Mitchell DTE Energy Trading Michael Bottger David Dulak

Eco-Energy Natural Gas, LLC Kevin Humpich ENGIE Energy Marketing Jeremy Sims EOG Resources, Inc. Scott Allison EQT Energy LLC Mark Moyer ETC Nick Nunley Exelon Generation Co. Kenneth Barb

Freepoint Commodities Tim Blanchard G2X Energy Alexandria Lopez Golden Pass Pipeline Jeff Hammad Katherine Medrano

Hartree Partners, LP Rafael Martinez Rhonda Pantoja

Invenergy Scott Ebner Kinder Morgan David Anderson Dee Bennett Trennis Curry Tom Dender Andy Edling Sam Hosper Danny Ivy Mary Limbaugh Carol Mikucki Tom Mikucki Bruce Newsome Beth O'Connor Kevin Palmer Jay Richardson Paul Robey Jason Sweeney David Weeks

Kinder Morgan (cont’d) Lonnie West Richard Williams Kinect Energy Melanee Pfautz Koch Energy Services Blake Jablonski Nathan Steele Macquarie Energy LLC Preston Roobaert David Virgilio Mansfield Power & Gas LLC Viking Dietrich Mex Gas Supply Medardo Becerril Cesar Castro NGPL Jim Brett Will Burton Dave Devine Maria Pavlou

Nicor Gas Martha White Michelle Carbone Debbie Santolin Joe Deters NIPSCO Tom Pysh

NRG Power Marketing Sam Kwak Oxy Energy Mktg, Inc. Jason Novosad Repsol Energy Kylene Isenberg River Energy LLC Kevin Stiles Chelle Shepard Sempra LNG David Challman Eric Hansen Sequent Energy Management L.P. John Serio Roy Rodriguez Tommy Segner

Seven Generations Energy Robert Culler Shell Energy North America Michael Maldonado Hung Nguyen

Southern Company Gas (Nicor) Daryl Kilpatrick Tim Sherwood Ken Yagelski

Spire Marketing Amanda Thacker Tenaska Marketing Ventures Mike Cozad Ken Meier Matt Millard Andrew Murren

Uniper Energy David Orlik Paul Park United Energy Trading Jim Stilling WEC Energy Group Tom Smith Wells Fargo Commodities, LLC Kari Yost World Fuel Services Bradley Dammann

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Jim BrettVice President, Marketing & Business Development

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Introduction/Welcome - Jim Brett Legal Cautionary Statement – Maria Pavlou

Opening Remarks - Dave Devine Market Fundamentals - Tom Mikucki

System Operations Overview – Danny Ivy Break at ~9:45 a.m. (15 minutes)

Integrity Program Discussion Dave DevineTom DenderDee Bennett

Mary LimbaughDave Weeks

Business Development Update – Jason Sweeney / Sam HosperClosing Remarks – Dave Devine/Jim Brett

Adjourn for Lunch/Afternoon Activities

NGPL 2019 Customer Meeting Agenda

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Legal Cautionary Statement

Please keep in mind that sharing your company’s forecasts, predictions, pricing plans, production plans or purchasing plans with competitors is illegal. Please do not discuss current or future prices, price trends, production, demand or other sensitive information with persons who are your competitors. Please do not use this meeting as a forum to share information that is proprietary or confidential. I’m sure that each of your employers has an antitrust policy in place. I ask that you keep that policy and the antitrust laws in mind during today’s formal and informal activities.

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Gas Market Fundamentals Tom Mikucki, Director – Market Services

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+ Supply+ 2019 gas production is estimated at 90.1 Bcf/d, 7.6 Bcf/d (9%) greater than 2018

+ Increases over ‘18 primarily in Marcellus/Utica, Permian, Haynesville and Midcontinent

Lower Net Canadian Imports ~0.4 Bcf/d than 2018+ 2020 gas production is estimated at 94.4 Bcf/d, ~4.4 Bcf/d higher than ‘19

+ Increases over ‘19 primarily in the Permian, Haynesville and Marcellus/Utica

Source: WoodMac July ‘19 Short-Term Outlook

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Current Landscape+ Demand

+ 2019 U.S. natural gas consumption is estimated at 94.5 Bcf/d, ~5.4 Bcf/d (6%) higher than 2018+ LNG exports are forecasted at 5.7 Bcf/d for the year+ Exports to Mexico are forecasted at 5.1 Bcf/d, 0.5 Bcf/d higher than 2018+ Power generation usage for 2019 is forecasted at ~1.2 Bcf/d higher than 2018+ 2019 R&C and Industrial usage are both forecasted at ~0.3 Bcf/d higher than 2018

+ 2020 Demand is forecasted at 5.7 Bcf/d higher than 2019+ Increase over ‘19 primarily due to greater LNG exports and Power

Source: WoodMac July ‘19 Short-Term Outlook

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Current Landscape

* Assumes normal weather beginning August 2019

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Current Landscape

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U.S. +14.4 Bcfd

Res +0.7 Bcfd

NE +7.6 Bcfd

+2.2 Bcfd-1.3 Bcfd

+6.1 Bcfd

Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis

Ind +1.9 Bcfd

Growing NA exports

Industrial demand growth Less Canadian Exports to U.S. More U.S. Exports to Mexico

Continued supply increases More Gas-fired generation

Can. +1.8 Bcfd

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SupplyDry Gas

Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

MB

o/d

Permian Oil Forecast

+6.8 MMBo/d

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Gas DemandIncluding Exports

Power: -0.2Other: +0.1

Power: +0.3Other: -0.1

Power: +0.7Other: -0.1

Power: +1.8Other: +0.5

Power: +2.2Other: +0.3

Power: +0.5

Power: +1.1Other: +0.3Plant: +0.2

Ind: +0.4Other: +0.2

Ind + Power: +0.8Other: +0.2

Plant: +0.9Ind: +0.7Other: +0.4

Power: +0.7Other: +0.6Ind: +0.4

Gulf: +12.6Canada: +1.8East: +0.5West: +0.7Mexico: +0.5

Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis

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15Proprietary Information Sources: IEA, ICF

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Unit In-ServiceMonth

2020 Feed Gas Volume (Bcf/d)

In Service 12/31/18 5.08

Corpus T2 July 2019 0.71

Elba December 2019 0.33

Cameron T1 July 2019 0.62

Cameron T2 March 2020 0.44

Cameron T3 June 2020 0.30

Freeport T1 November 2019 0.68

Freeport T2 February 2020 0.56

Freeport T3 June 2020 0.32

9.04

WM expects “second wave” export facilities to increase total U.S. feed gas requirements to 17.5 Bcf/d in 2025

ExportFacility

In-ServiceYear

2025 Feed Gas Volume (Bcf/d)

In Service 12/31/20 10.59

Corpus Christi T3 2022 0.71

Sabine Pass T6 2023 0.73

Calcasieu Pass 2023-24 1.51

Golden Pass 2024-25 2.14

Freeport T4 2025 0.60

Port Arthur 2025 1.27

17.55

WM also assumes LNG Canada @ 1.6 Bcf/d, Woodfibre @ 0.3 Bcf/d and Costa Azul in start-up in 2025.

Assumes delays in Cameron Trains 2 and 3 and Freeport Trains 2 and 3, resulting in reductions of almost 200 MMcf/d in 2019 and 500 MMcf/d in 2020.

Annual Average: 2018 3.3 Bcf/d2019 5.8 Bcf/d 2020 9.0 Bcf/d

Source: WoodMac May 2019 Short Term Outlook and H1 2019 Long Term Outlook, KM Analysis16

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Continued decline in gas production, ban on fracking, lack of capital and challenging regulatory environment will continue Mexico’s reliance on US Natural Gas for the foreseeable future

Current government has a more nationalistic approach; Promoting PEMEX to grow oil and gas production with minimal outside investment

$1.5 Billion stimulus to PEMEX – may be insufficient to turn around production

Cancellation of further private party auctions

Promoting upgrades at six existing refineries and construction of Dos Bocas refinery (340 kbpd), but questions remain about adequate capital

Mexico’s pipeline system is still in a buildout process, new builds have faced unexpected pushback from environmental and Indigenous peoples rights groups

Slowing delivery and increasing costs

Mexico importing LNG from the U.S. - 50% more expensive than piped imports

CFE is arbitrating in international courts to renegotiate $980 Million paid on gas pipeline contracts due to in-service delays

Delays could cap U.S. exports at 5 Bcfd

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Carso recently revised their 4Q 2019 in service date for Sam to Sasabe pipeline to Q1 2020 due to continued right of way disputes and unfavorable court rulings.

Sur de Texas – Tuxpan was mechanically completed in June 2019; however, CFE has yet to sign the official start date for pipeline flows to begin.

Fermaca announced that they again pushed back the in service date of their Wahalajara pipelines to December 2019.

Point # Project Status In-Service Capacity

1 Valley Crossing Pipeline In-Service 11/2018 2.6 Bcf/d

2Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline

Mechanically Complete June, 2019 2.6 Bcf/d

3 Tuxpan Tula Pipeline On Hold 4Q 2021 0.9 Bcf/d

4Tula Villa de Reyes Pipeline On Hold 4Q 2020 0.9 Bcf/d

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Villa de Reyes Aguascalientes Guadalajara Pipeline

Under Construction 4Q 2019 0.9 Bcf/d

6 Nueva Era (Expansion) Proposed 2020/2021 1.4 Bcf/d

7Mirage's Concho-Progreso Pipeline Proposed Unknown Unknown

8SNG & Mayakan Interconnect

Under Construction H2 2019 N/A

9Cempoala Compressor Reversal Completion

Under Construction 2020 N/A

10 Samalayuca – SasabeUnder

Construction 1Q 2020 0.5 Bcf/d

11 El Encino - La Laguna Completed Dec, 2017 1.5 Bcf/d

12La Laguna –Aguascalientes

Under Construction 4Q 2019 1.2 Bcf/d

13Guadlajara Pipeline (Make Bi-Directional)

Under Construction 2019 N/A

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NGPL Pipeline Operations ReviewDanny Ivy

VP – Gas Control

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Operations Review2018-19 Winter Recap

Supply and Market ChangesSummer ReviewStorage UpdateOutage SummaryContact List

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Natural’s facilities performed well during the extended cold

Compressor stations staffed 24x7, as needed

Storage assets were heavily utilized

No pressure issues in the Market Delivery Zone

Extreme temperatures – Record Demand

24 hour throughput record on 11-13-18 at 7.7 BcfPrior record 7.5 Bcf on 12/27/17

LDC record take set at 4.7 Bcf on 1/30/19Prior record 4.5 Bcf on 1/2/18

March 4th was 3rd all time highest delivery day (7.6 Bcf)LDC takes were 4.6 Bcf

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Record cold weather experienced on Jan 30 (81 HDDs)Jan 30 was 2nd coldest day on record next to Dec 24, 1983 (83 HDDs)

Jan 30 had the 5th lowest temp (-23 deg.) and Jan 31 had the 10th

coldest low (-21 deg.)

Wind chill index of -52 deg. at O’Hare on Jan 30.

4th longest consecutive time below zero at 52 hours.

5th time there were 2 consecutive days with lows below -20 deg.

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HDDs-Variance % of

from Normal Normal

November 179 124%

December (142) 87%

January 112 109%

February 44 104%

March 114 113%

Winter 307 106%

LDC Takes vs HDDs

For Nov 1 through March 31, HDDs were 106 % of normal

For Jan 19 through March 31, HDDs were 116% of normal

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OFOs were issued in accordance with Natural’s Tariff to protect system integrity and primary firm services, including firm no-notice services.

OFO reports were posted on Natural’s interactive website.

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During periods of extended colder-than-normal weather and near record HDDs, the system functioned as designed

Proactive steps taken to protect and maintain system integrity, storage deliverability, and firm service

Timely usage of OFOs and Critical Time in accordance with NGPL Tariff

As always, effective and transparent communication is key

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2019 2018 % vs 2018

LA Line deliveries 779 737 + 6 %

South Texas deliveries 496 303 + 64 %

Permian receipts 358 154 + 132 %

Midwest LDCs 2,354 2,399 - 2 %

Power 634 597 + 6 %

LNG 805 537 + 50 %

• All volumes are MDth/d

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2019 2018 % vs 2018

5,026 4,815 + 4 %

Total System Deliveries

• All volumes are MDth/d

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Power generation set a record of 1.4 Bcf on July 108 out of the top 10 power days were in July 2019

Selected market storage fields were on withdrawal to serve markets

No OFOs issued

Gulf Coast system flowing southbound .750 – 1.0 Bcf/dMarket area receipts consistently in the 1.5 Bcf/d rangeFlows are at capacity in the below areas:

Into South Texas Southbound through TX-OKOut of the PermianNorthbound out of the MidcontinentEastbound out of the Midcontinent

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NGPL Gas Storage Inventory Update2019 Update

Record monthly injections : April / May

Market fields performing as expected

Field storage recovering from historic lows

Overall injections are 60 % greater than same period in 2018

2020 Winter OutlookMarket fields on pace to achieve target inventory level

Field inventory on pace to be near full on October 31

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TYPE2019Job

Count

2018Job

Count

2017Job

Count

2016Job

CountIntegrity 254 203 221 187

O&M 233 207 270 324

System Total 487 410 491 511

Market Area and Storage 63 36 93 128

Amarillo projects 240 200 205 214

GC projects 184 174 124 169

Posted 131 119 82 58

Posted with Impact 38 38 26 24

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Gas Control

Emer 800-733-2490

24 hr 713-369-9400#[email protected]

Trennis Curry

713-369-9378

Cell 713-819-4577

Doug Gaskin

713-369-9131

Kenny Robbins

713-369-9432

Cell 832-588-3901

Danny Ivy

713-369-9311

Cell 713-829-2761

Tom Dender

713-420-3833

Cell 205-572-1549

Transport and Storage Services

TSS Hotline

24 hr 713-369-9683

Richard Williams

713-369-9283

Cell 713-819-1748

Gene Nowak

713-369-9329

Cell 713-252-9759

Account Services

Dave Weeks

630-725-3030

Cell 630-399-1193

Mary Limbaugh

713-420-4576

Cell 972-672-4809

Jim Brett

630-725-3040

Cell 630-437-0103

Field Operations

Dee Bennett

815-272-9104

Cell 815-693-0517

Joe McLaughlin

713-369-9847

Cell 630-269-3006

Ken Grubb

713-369-8763

Cell 281-702-1210

Houston TX Office

713-369-9000

1001 Louisiana St

Houston, TX 77002

Downers Grove IL Office

630-725-3000

3250 Lacey Rd

Suite 700

Downers Grove, IL 60515

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Panel DiscussionDavid DevineTom DenderDee Bennett

Mary LimbaughDavid Weeks

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NGPL is committed to operating its system in a prudent and safe manner, and in compliance with all applicable regulationsKinder Morgan applies the same degree of diligence and the same procedures, in managing risk, to the operation of NGPL as it does to the operation of all its pipelinesWe know that outages have been numerous and impactful this year especiallyNGPL and KM senior management are very focused on this issueProvide you today with a description of the NGPL integrity management program and compressor reliability programs

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NGPL has a commitment to spend $400 million on pipeline integrity in the 5-year period from 2017 through 2021

Minimum annual spending of $65 million

Actual spending for 2017 was $88.4 million and 2018 was $79.5 million

Planned expenditures are $94.6 million for 2019 and preliminary planned expenditures are $91.5 million for 2020

Expenditures for compressor work are incremental to this pipeline integrity spending

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PHMSA/Anticipated Mega-Rule Requirements

NGPL’s current actionable response criteria is aligned with the expected requirements of the Mega-Rule

Risk Ranking

Population density

Has the line been previously pigged?

Numerous other factors

KMI Process – Validated analytical method for predicting the location of stress corrosion cracking in a steel gas pipeline system

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Pig runs are scheduled to:Meet compliance dates in accordance with applicable rules/regulations and the KM Integrity Management Program proceduresMinimize customer impact during pig runs

In highly-utilized segments of the system, there may be no good time for a pig run

Minimize the likelihood that results are received during periods of high utilization

A “failed” pig run or tool availability may necessitate pig runs in sub-optimal periods

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In Line Inspection (ILI) – examples of smart tools used to:

Identify general internal, external corrosion, and “hard spots” using ‘standard’ MFL tool

Identify longitudinal defects including long-seam corrosion using C-MFL (also known as an AFD tool)

Identify Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) using an EMAT tool

Identify pipeline strain using a Mapping tool

When possible, multiple tool types will be run in tandem

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In-Line Inspection technology has advanced significantly in recent years

Anomalies can be identified with greatly improved accuracy

In the case of EMAT technology, anomalies can be detected that would not have been in the past

Pig runs can be disruptive due to low speed requirements

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“Typical” time sequence of events when running a pig:Prior to running certain types of in-line inspection tools, several cleaning runs may be required to prepare the pipeline for inspection The speed at which a tool can be run varies based on the type of tool

MFL and AFD tools can be run between 5 and 7.5 mphEMAT tools must be run at 3 to 3.5 MPHDepending on operational conditions, normal pipeline velocity ranges from 10 to 15 mph

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The following table shows the typical timeline to receive results after a pig run is completed:

Type of In-Line Inspection Tool

# of weeks to determine a

successful run

# of weeks to Preliminary

Report

# of weeks to Final Aligned

Report

MFL 1 - 2 3 - 4 8 - 13 AFD 2 - 3 3 - 4 12 - 16

EMAT 2 - 3 N/A 17 - 30

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Direct Assessment Testing for HCAsVisual pipe examinations performed in pipeline sections that are relatively short and/or not conducive to ILI or hydrostatic pressure tests

KMI Assessment DigsExcavations performed to prove-up the existence of SCC after applying the “KMI process”

Pressure and Spike TestsHydrostatic pressure tests performed in pipeline sections that are not piggable

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Results from a pig run: May require an immediate pressure reduction per regulations and KM/NGPL’s Integrity Management Program

May necessitate Intra-day cuts

Prior to beginning remediation, various actions must be completed

Appropriate environmental notifications and approvals

Landowner notification

One calls (Call 811)

Other approvals

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Compression ReliabilityNGPL is allocating significant dollars annually for work at key compressor stationsNGPL’s compression work falls into various categories:

Routine planned maintenanceMajor compressor unit overhauls Expansion Capital

Targeting reliability projects in areas of highest utilization including the MC and Permian zonesThis work is to improve compressor performance and enhance system reliability

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Provides more frequent notification of upcoming projectsHighlights changes and new outagesProvides quick summary of key scheduling impactsLists projects geographically by Segment

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Posted at the NGPL page at https:\\pipeline.kindermorgan.com under “Operating Information”

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Based on a prior tool run, NGPL was required to perform integrity-related remediation on Segment 2 between C/S 156 and C/S 801

This segment is a single 26” diameter pipelineInitial outage duration was 4/3 through 5/31

NGPL took various steps to reduce the outage impact, including:Phased the work to minimize point impactsDeployed multiple crews and worked 7 days per week to reduce the anticipated outage duration by 2 weeks (5/15)

Significant rainfall and flooding, as well as a separate incident at C/S 801 impacted the return to service on 6/24/19

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We understand communication is key We would like input from youTopics for further discussions in August-October:

What type of information is helpful?Communication of detail when it’s available?Estimation of end date, even if it could change?What other information would be helpful?

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Current Expansion Projects

Jason Sweeney / Sam Hosper

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Market DevelopmentLNG - Completed projects include:

NGPL GC Phase 1 in-service; Phase 2 application pending at FERC, anticipated in-service 2021; SPL Compression Expansion awaiting FERC certificate; anticipated in-service 2020

Niche Midwest ExpansionsChicago Market Expansion In-Service

Supply DevelopmentREX/Alliance/Northern Border – Completed projects include:

GC Phase 1 & 2, Chicago Market Expansion

Permian

South TexasNote that all projects discussed today are preliminary and subject to change

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Project Scope Station reversal project Creates incremental Gulf Coast Southbound capability to CS-302Leverages REX and Canadian supply to feed emerging GC Market

Project DescriptionCapacity: 260,000 Dth/dReceipts: REX, Alliance, Northern BorderDeliveries: Texok North (north-end of Seg-26), Texok South (CS-302) Estimated In-Service: 2.5 yrs (from contract-execution)

Commercial StatusIndicative Rate: $0.22 - $0.42 (15- 20 yrs)

Dependent on pathCustomer outreach currently underway

302

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“302-East” expansion (302-to-LA Line)

Project Scope Compression project Leverages NGPL’s Gulf Coast footprint to provide expanded access to “LNG Fairway”

May be bolted on to GC-III expansion capacity (to bring supply from the north) May be bolted on to currently avail STX-to-302 capacity (to bring supply from the south)

Project DescriptionCapacity:

185,000 Dth/d260,000 Dth/d315,000 Dth/d

Receipt: Station-302Deliveries: Segments 25, 23, 24 (e.g., Golden Pass, Henry Hub, FGT, SPL, Trunkline) Estimated In-Service: 2.5 yrs (from contract-execution)

Capacity is available prior to completion of facilities

Commercial StatusIndicative Rates: $.20-$.25/Dth (20 years)Customer outreach currently underway

302

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Project Scope

Compression project

Leverages NGPL’s Permian footprint to provide take-away to liquid Midcon Pool

Project Description

Capacity: 125,000 Dth/d

Receipts: Permian, Indian Basin, Lockridge Lateral

Delivery: Station-154 (also Midcon Pool)

Estimated In-Service: Q1/21

Commercial Status

Indicative Rate: mid-to-upper $0.30s (10 yrs)

Customer outreach currently underway

Open Season anticipated Q3/19

154

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Project Scope

Compression and looping project

Leverages NGPL’s interconnect with Permian Highway to provide Permian access to South Texas markets

Project Description

Capacity: 235,000 Dth/d

Receipt: Station-301

Deliveries: Agua Dulce, Banquete

Estimated In-Service: 2.5 yrs (from contract-execution)

Commercial Status

Indicative Rate: $0.35 (20 yrs)

Customer outreach currently underway

301

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Project Scope

Compression projects

Expanded delivery capability to Chicago area markets

Project Description

Capacity: Horizon - 265,000 Dth/d

NGPL - 238,000 Dth/d

Receipts: NGPL, Alliance, ANR, NBPL, Rex

Delivery: Nicor, NIPSCO, PGLC, Chicago area power plants

Estimated In-Service: mid 2022

Commercial Status

Indicative Rate: Horizon - $0.19/Dth (20 yrs)

NGPL - $0.16/Dth (20 yrs)

Customer outreach currently underway

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Dave DevineJim Brett

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NGPL 2019 Customer MeetingAugust 20, 2019

Abbey Resort Fontana, Wisconsin

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