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Final ReportFuture Force Conference 2017From partnerships to ecosystems: combining our efforts for a more secure worldFebruary 9 & 10, 2017, The Hague.

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With its 1.200 visitors from 50 countries and more than hundred speakers, the Future Force Conference has become a major event within the international defence and security domain. During the 2-day event, pioneering leaders, thinkers and doers discussed the armed forces of the future and the question of how to approach a wide range of security issues. ‘From partnerships to ecosystems: combining our efforts for a more secure world.’

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“ It has been a mind blowing experience, full of stimulating thoughts and takeaways. It was a pleasure and an honour to be part of this opportunity. We look forward to other opportunities to cooperate”. Monica Maggioni, President of Public Broadcaster RAI

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Table of Contents

Foreword by General Tom Middendorp

Facts & figures about FFC2017

Impressions and reports

Base of the Future Breakout sessions Future Force Conference 2017

Appendix 1: The Defence Ecosystem

Appendix 2: Participants of the Future Force Experience

P7 P9 P15

P29 P37 P89

P91

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Organized by:

Organizing Partners:

In cooperation with:

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Dear friends,

I would like to thank you for sharing your exciting ideas, and for your active participation in the Future Force Conference. Your efforts have truly made this conference work and brought our ecosystem to life. In fact, by the end of the conference, everybody I talked to seemed to be inspired and full of stimulating new ideas. Exactly what we aimed for, and exactly what we need in this fast-evolving word!

But now it is important that we keep up the momentum. Let’s continue to inspire and empower each other! By thinking big, by acting small, or by just starting somewhere.

I plan, for instance, to further open our doors and windows to enable interaction. Firstly, I want to further develop our defence organisation as a platform for practical innovation for other players in the ecosystem. Secondly, I want to make the organisation more approachable for others by creating points of contact. And thirdly, I will soon organise a pilot on comprehensive planning with all breakout owners. So we can enable informal relationships, connect our networks, and look at how to combine efforts.

I realise of course that these examples are no blueprint for saving the world. But I also believe I cannot afford to take the easy way out with such excuses either. The world has entered a period of transition and remarkable upheaval, and we need to find new answers, and new ways of cooperation. All of us.

That is why I hope this Future Force Conference report will serve as an inspiration to continue along this path. Let’s remember we’ve already got a feel for where we are heading. We’ve already set things in motion. Now we need to walk that talk. So that we can truly build a world fit for our children, and for generations to come.

General T.A. Middendorp,

Netherlands Chief of Defence

February 2017

Foreword

‘ Think big. Act small. Start somewhere’

Organized by:

Organizing Partners:

In cooperation with:

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“ During the session on ‘Children are the future’, I talked to several real ‘outsiders’ and it struck me how little people know about our Defence organisation and the way we work. In that respect, this conference really hit the spot.” Brigadier General Roland de Jong, Royal Netherlands Army

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Facts and figures about the Future Force Conference 2017

The team of volunteers

that developed causal loop

diagrams will join forces with

PWC to develop causal loop

diagrams and simulation models

during an upcoming migration

conference in The Hague so that

students can practice their group

model building skills, and migrati-

on and integration policies can be

looked at from a broad systems

perspective.

TU Delft’s Policy Academy

in The Hague will – as a

conference follow-up – organise

crash courses, seminars and

workshops on safety, security and

defence, including a 3-day crash

course on System Dynamics

Modelling & Simulation, a high-

level Strategic Systems Thinking

seminar, and workshops on

Information Sharing in Sensitive

Environments and on Dealing

with Migration and its Root Causes.

These activities will enable

organisations in the field to build

in-house systems thinking,

simulation, and information

management capabilities, which

will facilitate further collaboration.

Over the course of the Future Force Conference, there was an increasing eagerness to set things in motion. Many people and organisations have combined efforts, and the first steps are already being taken! For example thanks to this conference...

Over 200 attendees of the Future Force Conference took selfies

with Pepper, the friendly Capgemini robot who interrupted General

Middendorp during his opening speech.

The Netherlands Chief of

Defence has offered social

innovators a field-testing facility

in Mali so that they can test

their portable purification and

desalination device, and may

soon be able to purify twenty

litres of brackish and salt water

per hour.

Siemens Nederland has

taken the lead in developing

an analysis method for smart and

secure cities.

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A hackathon will be

organised by TU Delft’s branch

in The Hague, during which

engineering and policy analysis

MSc students will be developing

and using simulation models and

machine learning techniques

to support real decision-makers

in the fields of safety, security

and defence so that students can

practice their modelling and

machine learning skills while

solving real issues that decision-

makers are struggling with in the

fields of safety, security and

defence.

The General Director at

Carnegie Foundation Peace

Palace has invited the

Netherlands Chief of Defence,

General Middendorp, to host the

pilot on comprehensive planning

with all breakout owners in the

Peace Palace so that he can

contribute to informal

relationships in a beautiful and

important historical building.

The Netherlands Chief of

Defence has offered a Dutch

inventor - who designs solar-

powered water devices -

the opportunity to test his Sun-

Glacier technology at the Dutch

military base in Mali so that he

can conduct further research

in an extremely dry desert and

harvest fresh water from air.

The Hague Centre for

Strategic Studies and

Professor Joris Voorhoeve have

written a memorandum on

Russian disinformation as a

result of the breakout session

on Hybrid Warfare and Stratcom.

It contains 7 recommendations

on how to counter the effects

of disinformation.

A project officer - sent to

Mali to investigate short-

and long-term effects of military

missions - now has a meeting

with a product manager at Gispen

(which is an office furniture

design company specialized in

creating a circular economy).

The two agreed that the project

officer would bring waste samples

to the Gispen process manager,

to try and develop a process

in which not only the waste

becomes a valuable resource

again, preventing it from being

discarded, but also to serve as

raw material for a locally useful

product currently not available

on the market. By doing so, both

the waste problem and an as yet

unresearched product need may

be resolved.

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The Dean of the Faculty of

Public Management, Law

and Safety (The Hague University

of Applied Sciences) has now

made an appointment between

her faculty’s researchers on

Metropolitan Development,

and people from UN Habitat

(the United Nations Human

Settlements Programme) to

support each other’s work.

This connection brings theory

and practice of solving urban

issues together, advancing both.

A military gender advisor from the Dutch Ministry of defence now

has an appointment with a senior child protection advisor from PLAN

international, a non-profit organisation that tries to drive change to

advance children’s rights and quality for girls. They are going to explore

opportunities for cooperation so that they can better support children

and young people in the future.

A Dutch brigadier general

spoke for the first time in his life

with a former child soldier. They

met during the breakout session

‘Children are the future’ and the

young man told the general how he

was forced to kill people with an

AK47 at 11 years of age, and to

command 33 other young

children to do the same. “This, I

will remember the most”, the

general later said when asked

about the conference.

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In the context of the

necessary and desirable

intensification of awareness and

collaboration, the Magazine

Nederlandse Nationale Veiligheid

en Crisis Management

[Netherlands National Security

and Crisis Management Magazine]

will be publishing a special

edition about the FFC.

The World Resources Insti-

tute and The Hague Centre for

Strategic Studies are now going

to combine their databases on

resources and on social and poli-

tical instability. This combination

will make it possible to predict

how the onset of instability could

aggravate the effects of scarcity

of raw materials and water.

The United Nations

University (UNU-MERIT)

and architect Malkit Shoshan

will have a meeting to discuss

whether there could be colla-

boration between them in a

project to evaluate the footprint

of the UN peacekeeping mission

in Liberia. Malkit Shoshan has

been tasked by the Department

of Peacekeeping Operations

(DPKO) to make a recommen-

dation on how best to use the

bases after the mission leaves,

and UNU-MERIT wants to be

involved.

A white-hat hacker from

Deloitte considered the

documentary ‘Age of Consequen-

ces’ one of the biggest eye-

openers during the conference.

The film looked at the correlation

between climate change and

terrorism, a correlation that had

not occurred to him before.

The director of Stichting Rondom Baba – which is working in Mali to improve living and working conditions

for those in extreme poverty – has offered to brief military personnel in Mali. So that servicemen and -women

gain a better cultural awareness.

The Ministry of Foreign

Affairs, AIR and Capgemini

made an appointment to talk

about using Blockchain

technology to enable journalists

to provide secure location

information in conflict areas.

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www.facebook.com/FutureForceConference2017

www.twitter.com/ffc_17

www.ffc2017.org

Has the Future Force Conference inspired or

enabled you to make an appointment with people or

organisations with whom you have had no previous

contact? Please let us know!

Overriding concept:From partnerships to

Ecosystems

4th UN CityThe Hague of

Peace and Justiceas a host

Continents represented

10 keynotespeakers

Breakout sessionsaddressing

different themes

Youngest participant

Organizations involved

Booths on the future force experience

Countries representedvia participants

Booths for future compound

Oldest participant

100+ Speakers Participants Posts on online and social media

1371 3199

1 4 5

10 21+19 24

43 50 70 84

100+

Overall rating participants

82

http://www.facebook.com/FutureForceConference17

http://www.twitter.com/ffc_17

http://www.ffc2017.org

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“We cannot fight hate with hate, but we must proudly stand by our values: and we should not get into a mud fight with a pig. The pig will love it. But we will look terrible. So we should fight injustice by offering solutions that are grounded in our values”. Frans Timmermans, First Vice President of the European Commission

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Feb 8 2017 | Mayor of The Hague:‘Cities are indispensable partners within ecosystems’

“Any lasting contribution to peace, security and stability must take cities as its starting point.” These were the words of Mayor Jozias van Aartsen at the kick-start of the Future Force Conference 2017 at the Old Town Hall. The mayor of The Hague, host city for the event, reminded his guests of the importance of ‘the city’ – not to be underestimated and perhaps even the most important ecosystem in the world.

Because ecosystems are what the Future Force Conference 2017 is about. With 1.200 visitors from 50

countries and 95 speakers, it has become a major event in the international defence and security domain.

During the 2-day event, pioneering leaders, thinkers and doers will be talking about the armed forces of the

future and the question of how to deal with a wide range of security issues. The theme: ‘From partnerships to

ecosystems: combining our efforts for a more secure world’.

Cities are more important than ever

Never before have so many people been living in cities. It is a trend that is continuing. Cities are more

important than ever. Van Aartsen: “Not only as engines of economic growth, science, culture and innovation,

but also in terms of their role in providing and maintaining peace, justice and security.”

Impressions and reports

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Dark side of urbanisation

Like everything, urbanisation too has its dark side, such as poverty, exclusion, lack of shelter and infrastructure,

environmental hazards, crime and polarization. When combined with weak or unwilling governance structures,

this can give rise to greater instability and insecurity, creating space for criminal and terrorist organisations

to thrive.

Source of inspiration

“This calls for very close collaboration with, and empowerment of local authorities, the private sector and

civil society.” For a safer and more stable world, Van Aartsen believes it is vital that leaders serve the interests

of all citizens. “Cities, such as my own, are an indispensable ally within the ecosystems you will be considering

in the next 2 days. Let cities serve both as a source of inspiration and a key implementing partner.”

Everybody needs stability

Chief of Defence General Tom Middendorp, co-organiser of the Future Force Conference, then welcomed his

first guests at a VIP dinner. “We all come from very different backgrounds, different organizations with different

goals, expertise and means of operating. However, there is also one strong driver that connects us. One goal that

overlaps and that we cannot achieve by ourselves. And that is the need for stability. Without that stability none

of us can achieve our goals. And without each other, none of us can achieve that stability. So this conference is

about connecting and about empowering each other to achieve that common security goal.

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Feb 9, 2017 | Future Force Conference: an ecosystem for security

“I’m Pepper, the intelligent social robot, and please don’t worry… I got through screening.” Chief of Defence General Tom Middendorp received an unexpected guest on stage today during the opening of the Future Force Conference in The Hague. “Why are you here?” Pepper: “Well, you are here to interact about ecosystems? Aren’t you? So I would like to be part of the discussion.”

“That is all very well, Pepper. But this audience is expecting to see and hear real people with hearts and minds.

Not a robot”, Middendorp told the pushy robot. But Pepper didn’t give up that easily: “Are you sure? They

want to see the future. I’m part of the future.”

What followed was a digital impression of a ‘base of the future’, which looked as if it had come straight out of

Star Wars. Here, seemingly unlikely groups work together to rebuild a country, with professionals ranging

from military personnel, medical specialists and diplomats to teachers and agricultural experts. Middendorp:

“I’m sure Pepper has convinced you to go to the virtual reality hall where you can pick up VR glasses and visit

the future base yourself!”

Transport of the future

In the central hall, visitors can enjoy a real-life experience of the future. As well as a virtual reality experience

with 3D glasses, there is also a truly futuristic means of transport to try out: a bike. But not just any bike –

this is an indestructible, electric, ‘special forces bike’. With the Trefecta, military forces with full kit can reach

speeds in excess of 70 kilometres per hour for a distance of 100 kilometres. Successful trials are currently

being conducted by military personnel on patrols in Mali. The fact that the environment and sustainability are

hot items is illustrated by the great interest in the efficient use and re-use of water and energy.

Major event

With its 1,200 visitors from 50 countries and 95 speakers, the Future Force Conference has become a

major event within the international defence and security domain. During the 2-day event, pioneering

leaders, thinkers and doers will discuss the armed forces of the future and the question of how to

approach a wide range of security issues. Theme: ‘From partnerships to ecosystems: combining our

efforts for a more secure world’.

People from all walks of life

Middendorp reminded his highly diverse audience that they are essential to the future force. That is why

he and the Netherlands Minister of Defence had extended a personal invitation. Together, they should form

ecosystems to combine and coordinate their efforts and to solve conflicts. “I’m talking about people from

all walks of life: CEOs, politicians, researchers; policy-makers, leaders of NGOs, military professionals and

directors of private foundations. But also ethical hackers, analysts, students, architects, social scientists,

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economists, app developers, social engineers, experts on big data, experts on terrorism, and I’m sure I’ve still

forgotten a few of you.”

The current high-speed, highly networked and globalising world, with its fading boundaries, calls for a

different approach to conflict prevention or resolution, according to Middendorp. Solid, lasting peace

requires daily, intensive efforts. “If we want a world where people don’t have to flee, fight or turn to crime,

we need others. If we want to prevent terrorism and organised crime from doing its devastating work, we

need others. If we want children to have a safe place to call home and to have decent prospects in life – we

need others.”

And this is exactly why we have chosen a different setup for this year’s Future Force Conference. “It’s an

ecosystem approach to security. Meant to enable informal relationships. To connect our networks. And to

inspire and empower each other.”

Plea for an ‘ecosystem Europe’

First Vice-President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans continued this train of thought

during the first keynote address of the day with his plea for an ‘ecosystem Europe’ “Europe is more than just

Brussels. Europe is its member states, its inhabitants, the citizens of Europe. It is an ecosystem made up of

countless languages, cultures and traditions. Despite our differences, we work together on the basis of our

collective values, such as democracy, freedom and the rule of law.” Values that provide an answer to certain

fundamental questions such as: Why do we need defence?

Battle for soul of society

Timmermans warned against taking these values for granted. He referred to the ideological battle for

the figurative souls of our societies currently being waged by populists. “This is as old as Europe. Take the

Roman statesman Marcus Tullius Cicero more than 2000 years ago. All his speeches were focused towards

rediscovering virtue and renewing the Republic to save it. His tragedy was to be a witness and ultimately a

victim of other populists who started out by saying they spoke for the people and ended up as tyrants and

hastened the decline and fall of the Roman Republic.”

The unthinkable could happen

With this he made clear that the unthinkable could happen: the rule of law and the European Union could

be destroyed. And with it peace, democracy and the wealth they represent. It is because of this danger that

Timmermans gave a universal call to action: “We must show unity and strength. Our strength comes from a

strong defence.”

In this context, Timmermans expressed his heartfelt support for that other ecosystem: NATO. “It protects

our peace. I strongly believe in NATO. Our strength comes from unambiguous unity even if we don’t always

agree on everything, and most importantly, it comes from our inner strength, the fundamental values we

cherish and uphold. So, again, why do we need defence? We need it to protect our fundamental values of

freedom and democracy.”

‘We ain’t dead yet’

“We ain’t dead yet.” Although Timmermans voiced words of caution and concern, he saw more than enough

reason to end on an optimistic note. “The future of Europe is not decided by the tweets of the president of the

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United States.” He is particularly encouraged by the silent majority of people of goodwill who are saying: no

more of this. “You see it above all in our young people. The best connected, educated and travelled generation

we have ever seen.”

Bright hope

A glittering example of that inspirational youth took the stage after Timmermans. 28-year-old Ana

Saldarriaga was born in the Colombian city of Medellin, at the time ‘the most violent city in the world’. She

survived a shooting as a baby and was almost kidnapped on two occasions. She is now an engineer and former

Global President of AIESEC, the world’s largest youth-led network that works in pursuit of peace worldwide

by training young leaders. Her experiences with AIESEC convinced her of the power of ecosystems. “We

partnered with the government to teach children English. We brought 130 foreigners in to teach proper

English.” They put all the scepticism aside and acted. “We really believed in the power of global citizenship.”

Against all odds, it worked, and the project still exists today. Saldarriaga regularly meets young Colombian

leaders with a good command of English. “Young people can play and are playing a fundamental role in the

global ecosystem. Together we can ignite a global change.”

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Feb 9, 2017 | Minister of Defence Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert:‘Let’s mobilise the force for good’

“On this tiny planet, we depend on each other like never before. Let’s start behaving accordingly. Let’s start turning the tide. Let’s mobilise the force for good.” At the end of Day 1, Minister of Defence Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert called upon the participants of the Future Force Conference to intensify cooperation. The first contours began to take shape during the breakout sessions on various security issues. What ideas and solution-finding approaches did the participants put forward? Professor Jonathan Holslag delivered an initial reflection.

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“The final result looks like this spaghetti or noodle bowl.”

Hennis introduced her audience to the 67-year-old Muhammed Faris, who, 30 years ago, was the first and

only Syrian to go into space. The ‘Neil Armstrong of the Arab world’ is now living as a refugee in Turkey.

“From there, he does his utmost to help the people from his beloved country. His country that he once saw from

space. And every time someone asks him about his dreams, he says: “I just want to sit at home in my country, in

my garden, and see children play outside, without the fear of bombs.” A wish so simple, and yet so universal!”

Dreaming of a safer world

Hennis talked to the audience about how they form part of an ‘ecosystem of sorts’, a system in which people

depend on each other. A universal system of like-minded people who dream of a safer world. “I am convinced

that the quality of our cooperation within this ‘ecosystem’ will determine our future security. Only by

combining all of our efforts for a more secure world can we hope to change the world for the better.”

Recommendations

What recommendations did the participants in the first 20 breakout sessions present to Jonathan Holslag?

Perhaps the most important observation was that Europeans are increasingly worried about their security.

Their security at home, but also the stability and the state of the world. Holslag: “The solution is that we

have to try to take away these worries. We have to guarantee the 500 million men and women in Europe

a livelihood, a habitat that is peaceful, stable and prosperous. But that’s of course not possible without

engaging overseas in distant areas.”

The second and in fact equally significant conclusion was that the most important ecosystem is still our

own society. But what does that mean? Some of the participants felt that in missions you should start with

the armed forces and then gradually engage with other parties. Others thought, however, that you should

acknowledge that defence is just a tiny player. And that they interact, sometimes with force and less easily

with many other parties, companies, civil society, and so forth. And what really binds us in an ecosystem is not

so much structures, but the very cement is ideas and a common destiny.

Jonathan Holslag

One of the main solution-finding approaches that recurred in many sessions was the structure and

connection offered by current social technologies. The huge technological developments, some of which are

also being demonstrated here, present enormous opportunities. But what many participants highlighted: it

is not just about the technology, but about the social aspect itself. And in that regard: it’s not about me, but

about ‘we’. For a positive ecosystem, the main starting point should no longer be made up of selfish, individual

interests.

Good citizenship is our first line of defence. In various ways, such as through education, we need to convince

people that we’re in this boat together. Recognise a common history, but also a shared geopolitical situation.

Social technologies also need to be used to stimulate citizenship, as do schools. Empowering children to deal

with information. We give them books to study, but we don’t teach them how to recognise fake news that is

broadcast via social media.

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As Mayor Jozias van Aartsen said yesterday at the opening: the world is urbanising at a rapid pace. Cities

are becoming increasingly important. How do you keep such places safe and stable? A fascinating example

was that of a popular reggae band which helped the Brazilian police to understand the youth culture and

sensitivities in the slums. Walls don’t work. The Romans learnt that lesson 2000 years ago, and the Chinese

were also forced to acknowledge the limited value of their wall. Europe must actively reshape its external

security environment.

Work like Android, not like Apple

The last and most striking recommendation was aimed at Defence: be like Android, not like Apple. Do not

monopolize, but inspire and facilitate, be a platform. Don’t dominate. Offer possibilities to other parties,

social organisations, universities. Make sure that the local population feels involved during missions. Provide

security and give people the chance to take charge of it themselves. Defence equals engagement. Defence is

not isolation. It’s about building partnerships, soldiers who reach out to local communities. Resilient societies

depend on citizenship. Build an inclusive defence. Without the support of our citizens, it’s not going to work.

Forge new bonds

That advice fitted in very nicely with the speech by Minister Hennis. She said that the armed forces of the

future will know how to connect with others. She believes that this will give the military the ability to adapt to

predictable and unpredictable circumstances. “It is for this reason that I regard this Future Force Conference

as unique and important. This conference brings together a broad range of talented people and widely

respected organisations. This is important because we can thus forge new bonds, and strengthen existing

ones at the same time.”

Feb 10, 2017 | Middendorp challenges participants: find concrete solutions

“So far the impact of the conference has exceeded expectations. We have gone through an experiment. We saw the ecosystem come to life.” This gave Chief of Defence General Tom Middendorp the confidence to challenge the Future Force participants on Day 2. “We are all leaders in our own areas. Used to translating very abstract goals into practical answers. Let’s find solutions. Let’s find actions we can do together to make it work. Identify 3 takeaways that can be translated into action.”

Middendorp was delighted to see people from different backgrounds interacting, exchanging business cards

and making appointments for follow-up meetings. All for a common goal: a safe and secure environment. And

we all have something to bring to the table. Whether you are a researcher, a hacker, a leader of a company or

wear a military uniform. There is something you can bring to the table to help to achieve that goal.”

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Don’t find yourself left behind

The first person to accept the CHOD’s challenge was Dr William Roper, Director of the Strategic Capabilities

Office in the US. He believes that it is critically important that we talk about the future now. Not only because the

world is changing at a pace that is accelerating. “But also in order to make good national security investments.

And so be able to leverage investments that are coming to us from other nations and the commercial sector.

The national security establishment will otherwise find itself left behind. That is the challenge.”

Roper focused on 3 issues:

1. Quit talking about the future as an amorphous construct, but force practical things to precipitate out of it.

Make tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow a series of events that is shaped into the direction we want

it to go. I want to give you some insights into what makes an idea for a military organisation good or bad.

2. Theory of the problem: if we want to create new ideas for the future, we have to know: what problem are

we trying to solve? Framing the problem appropriately is critically. The countries and coalitions, allies and

partners that have the most flexibility have the greatest freedom of movement.

3. The US has been projecting power in the same way for roughly the last 20 years. Roper: “Now we are faced with

rising powers who have analysed the way we’ve done business. They think they have counters that exploit our

weaknesses. That’s not surprising. If you always play the same way, one day you’ll lose your dominant position.”

Look at sports teams

But Roper took hope from the example of sports teams. Sports teams don’t throw out the whole playbook,

but simply change it so that the new playbook has all the advantages of the old one but with restored surprise.

Blurring the domain of offence and defence

“At my office, we are very focused on trying to take the systems that we all know, artillery, ships, submarines

aircrafts and satellites, and find a completely new way of using these things. The advantages are manifold:

it is cheaper and faster that developing an entirely new idea and you keep the force structure intact. “For

example: our navy needed more antiship capabilities. We looked at all the systems and stumbled over the

Standard Missile 6. Why can’t we take this interceptor developed for one purpose and give it an entirely

different mission, which is going forward and striking at enemy ships? Now, 3 years later, we’ve got SM6’s

on ships capable of simultaneously defending and attacking.”

According to Roper blurring the domain of offence and defence can be a much better strategy than just

building a better missile for the future. Another example he mentioned was the use of inexpensive, traditional

projectiles for ballistic missile defence by combining them with our electromagnetic railway program. This

instead of million dollar interceptors. “A disruptive flipping of the paradigm. Do not let people sell you high-

tech technology as the solution until they explain why they can’t solve your problem creatively with the

systems you have.”

Disruptors: what could mess it up? Technologies that are going to effect national security the most, or at

least equal to military systems, are being developed by the commercial world. The ones that we worry about

the most are all centred around the digital domain: it’s the combination of the internet of things, big data

analytics and deep learning. If you’re not smart on deep learning, the Roper recommends that you get smart.

He predicts that this is the single biggest impactor on national security.

That technique makes that old adage of finding a needle in a haystack meaningless. The machine can do

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more: it can characterize the whole hayfield. That fundamentally changes the whole approach to situational

awareness and information warfare.

The challenge is not: being creative. “Western society has always been creative. That also applies to the

implementation of military constructs. Defence organisations need to work as quickly as commercial

industry. For that, we shouldn’t get hung up on perfect solutions, but be able to accept ‘good enough’. That

might sound complacent, but it requires analysis and persuasive power. You’re actually saying: we could do

better, but for strategic reasons, we shouldn’t.”

Holslag questioning Roper

After his speech, William Roper spoke to Jonathan Holslag, who asked him why it is so important to buy time.

Roper: “We need to modernize our military to win future conflicts and to deter them.” If opponents can see

that a military force is able to respond quickly to change, that will have a deterrent effect. Time can be used

to react to one leap-ahead and the next and so on. Create disruptive change to buy time. “The idea is to keep

winning this time-turning advantage.”

Holslag: “One of your main remarks was the need for flexibility and versatility.” He asked Roper how he could

combine maintaining the broadest possible arsenal with being at the technological forefront.

Roper said the idea is to profit fully from existing technological means, such as autonomous systems. Where

you once had an expensive high-end vessel, now you have a team of expensive high-end vessels. With those,

you find new ways to fight. Only if you can’t solve a problem should you think up new technology.

Holslag then asked Roper what he thought of breakthroughs such as swarming drones able to engage in

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very long-term and long-range strikes. Roper: “Most disruptive changes. You can do something with an

autonomous system instead of an expensive person. But these systems also take risks men don’t. That gives

flexibility. Teaming approaches is the second. Teaming systems together to benefit from both.” That sounds

easy, but because of network and data exchange challenges, it isn’t.

From kill chains to kill webs

The last: change kill chains, from detection to destruction, to kill webs. Every sensor, US and allied sensors are

connected in a system of systems. This introduces cyber vulnerabilities and confidentiality issues. Holslag:

“How do you make them work together?” Again, Roper said that we shouldn’t aim for perfection. Network the

ystems, don’t design entirely new ones. Industry can deliver existing, practical solutions.

Learning machines reshape the battlefield

As the last point, the 2 experts discussed technology that does reshape the battlefield. Roper: “The biggest

game-changer is going to be learning machines. All systems should learn. The ultimate goal for companies like

Google is basically to suck in the internet of data. The power of that: the more data that comes in, the smarter

artificial intelligence gets. The advice: we’ve got to go all-in. If we don’t, we will look like museum military.

We don’t want AI systems to do the strategic thing and tell us what to do. A swarm of UAV’s is doing the job

of low-level surveillance. We can’t ask them what to do with the data. We need very good guidelines. We’re

not willing to give legal or strategic decisions to machines.”

Feb 10, 2017 | Ecosystems come to life at Future Force Conference

“Your efforts have made this conference work and brought this ecosystem to life.” At the end of the Future Force Conference, Chief of Defence General Tom Middendorp was enthusiastic about the results that had been achieved so far. “I’ve heard exciting new ideas and philosophies that have an impact in every domain of business. ‘Work more like platform companies’, for example. ‘Like android’.”

On Day 2 of the conference, participants were once again presented with new perspectives from

independent, creative thinkers. For instance, William Roper, Director of the Strategic Capabilities Office

(Department of Defense, USA), called upon friendly armed forces to follow the example of sports teams.

“Sports teams don’t throw out the whole playbook, but simply change it so that the new playbook has all the

advantages of the old one but with restored surprise.” Use existing means in new, creative ways.

“Take for example the use of inexpensive, traditional projectiles for ballistic missile defence by combining

them with our electromagnetic railway program. This instead of million dollar interceptors. Do not let people

sell you high-tech technology as the solution until they explain why they can’t solve your problem creatively

with the systems you have.”

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Learning machines will change the game

Professor Jonathan Holslag then asked Roper to focus on a number of interesting issues. Such as the question

of what technology will reshape the battlefield. Roper: “The biggest game-changer is going to be learning

machines. All systems should learn. The ultimate goal for companies like Google is basically to suck in the

Internet of things. The power of that: the more data that comes in, the smarter artificial intelligence gets.

The advice: we’ve got to go all-in. If we don’t, we will look like a museum military. But we need very good

guidelines. We’re not willing to give legal or strategic decisions to machines.”

Viewpoint from space

A different viewpoint, literally, was presented by astronaut Andre Kuipers. He showed how beautiful Earth

is from space. But what he also showed disturbingly clearly was the huge impact of humans on planet

Earth. Deforestation, pollution, depletion of natural resources and global warming. “When I saw the earth

from above I got a bit claustrophobic. It looks so fragile and tiny. It’s the only one we have.” He affirmed

that only ecosystems can be strong enough to take a stand, to take on the challenges we face. “I was in the

International Space Station, also a beautiful example of partnership. Countries that were fighting each other

not so long ago, now working together to achieve great things. A good candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.”

Increasing eagerness

Over the course of the conference Middendorp saw an increasing eagerness to set things in motion. “The

first steps are being taken. Thanks to this conference, the World Resources Institute and The Hague Centre

for Strategic Studies are now going to combine their databases on resources, and on social and political

instability. This will make it possible to predict how the onset of instability could aggravate the effects of

scarcity of raw materials, and water. It will enable my defence organisation, for instance, to become more

proactive, and help to prevent conflicts from occurring.

Should we compromise our values?

William Roper’s words made quite an impression on the CHOD. “He predicts that artificial intelligence

and learning machines are going to fundamentally transform every aspect of warfare. But it is not just

about technological change. Our opponents are employing new technologies and social media in ways that

contradict the values of our western democracies. We value truth. We value transparency. Tolerance.

In the face of all of these threats, should we compromise these values?”

He reminded the audience of Ana from Colombia. Born into a seemingly hopeless situation but now making a

change. “Ana’s ideals, her willpower, strengthen my belief that we can influence our tomorrows.”

General Middendorp’s takeaways

Firstly. I want to further develop defence as a platform for practical innovation.

Secondly, I want to make the organisation more approachable for other actors in the ecosystem,

by creating points of contact.

And thirdly, I will soon organise a pilot on comprehensive planning.

Organise a pilot on comprehensive planning.

“Let me give you some specific examples of my first take-away, regarding defence as a platform for

innovation. In the build-up to this conference, I met the Israeli architect Malkit Shoshan, and the Dutch

architect and urban planner Jan Willem Petersen. Both of them inspired me when they showed me ways to

leave a sustainable legacy when it comes to military missions. I wanted to explore this, so I asked a reserve

27

officer – who is actually a schoolteacher – to do some research in Mali. In order to find practical examples of

what is being done in Mali, or what could be done, to improve the legacy of our mission.”

Follow up in practical ways

The ecosystem philosophy that was the central theme at the Future Force Conference will be followed up

in a number of practical ways. During the evaluation, the Defence organisation and the breakout owners

will discuss the best way to approach this. Middendorp: “I will also put forward a proposal for a pilot on

a comprehensive planning conference. This will focus on a specific theme or perhaps environment. For

example: to mutually assess a crisis area in order to improve our understanding of the local dynamics and

the root causes. And to explore – without obligation – possibilities for cooperation. Perhaps this pilot could

then serve as a starting point from which to begin a comprehensive follow-up, with many more experts,

universities, companies and organisations.”

The force for good

If this proves to be an effective way of assessing security challenges, Defence will use this as a best practice

for the future. Middendorp: “That is what working in ecosystems could look like. And should look like.

Working in ecosystems means interacting with our partners in an ever-closer way. I would call on every single

individual in this room to think about their position in this broader ecosystem. Individually, we will never

accomplish these ambitious goals. Only if we find the right approach to ecosystems will we be all the more

powerful. Together, we are the force for good.”

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“This conference brings together a broad range of talented people and widely respected organisations. This is important because we can thus forge new bonds, and strengthen existing ones at the same time. Only by combining all of our efforts for a more secure world can we hope to change the world for the better.” Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Netherlands Minister of Defence

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Another way to wash your hands. Not everything in the base of the future is equally spectacular, but nonetheless just as innovative. The first contours of such a base can now be seen. It all started a few years ago with a challenging remark made in response to a speech by Chief of Defence General Tom Middendorp. ‘Defence is too conservative and too cumbersome to be innovative’, was the gist. The general took up the gauntlet and decided to prove the contrary.

At the Future Force Conference on 9 and 10 February 2017, participants were told about a number of

promising and advanced initiatives with cool names such as Hydrowashr and The Shaded Dome.

No footprint

Inside the Fieldlab Smart Base at the Land Warfare Centre, Defence, industry, MKB and knowledge institutes

are shaping the base of the future. Lieutenant Colonel Edwin Leidelmeijer, Fieldlab Programme Coordinator:

“The objective is a future-proof base in a mission area that is scalable, moveable and has a logistic footprint

of zero. The latter means self-sufficiency in terms of energy and water.” Defence approached 600 potential

partners, which resulted in 140 project proposals. Eighteen of them will be delivering the first products by

2018. Sustainability and the environment are high on the agenda, something which was also evident during

the Future Force Conference. Integrated light panels (not solar panels), intelligent energy storage, smaller

batteries and more efficient use and re-use of water are certainly shaping the base of the future.

Base of the Future

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Washing your hands with boiling water

“We knew we were onto something when my brother used a plant spray with boiling water to squirt

margarine off his hands. And that’s the patent that we have: hand washing with boiling water.” It is the first

product from the field lab that is operational: the Hydrowashr. During Exercise Bison Drawsko in Poland,

troops tested the first samples of this ‘game changer in hand washing’. “You would normally use about a

litre of water to wash your hands. With the Hydrowashr, you use 10 millilitres: one hundredth. The result is

the equivalent of 20 seconds of hand washing with soap. Five thousand people can wash their hands with

50 litres of water. In hot mission areas, where water is scarce, that is a huge benefit”, says Ane Melein, who,

together with his brother, the inventor of the Hydrowashr, wants to conquer the world.

What was it like to wash your hands with boiling water? Ane: “It’s like the tiny sparks produced by a sparkler.

That’s hot too, but so little of it that you don’t get burnt. We jet the water onto your hands at a speed of 500

kilometres per hour.” Another similar game changer: soap makes everything dirty. “Not only do we combine

washing and drying. One difference between this and existing driers is that the air that comes out is cleaner

than the air that goes in. We are now working on the integration of disinfectants so that it can also be used in

field hospitals.”

Cool inflatable tent

Another footprint reducer was on display at the Future Force Conference: the Shaded Dome. The inflatable

tent gets its shape from a light dome structure and has been in use for years, for example as a sports hall. The

concept has not yet been used as a protected, communal space in mission areas. Simon Visser from Shaded

Dome, a cooperative group consisting of TNO [Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research],

Washing hands with boiling water is cleaner and more economical

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Royal Haskoning, ZJA Zwarts & Jansma Architects: “We have developed a special 2-layer system. Air

circulates between the layers, which makes it possible to cool the tent with 40% less energy than a building.

At the moment, tents in a hot environment are almost impossible to cool.”

The display also attracted General Middendorp’s attention. “I was the commanding officer in Afghanistan

and we had to deal with rocket and mortar attacks on a daily basis. Doesn’t such a large object represent an

obvious target?” It turns out that the 2-layer system is also the answer for incoming mortars: “The outer layer

works as a trigger. On the inside, we apply a layer that is also found in flak jackets. That is designed to protect

against the fragments.”

The existing communal areas at bases are made up of linked, armoured containers. A shaded dome of 1000

m2 consists of a roll of 3m x 1.5m x 1.5m and, with ground stakes, into 1 container. Another container is

currently needed with additional cooling. Visser: “In 2 years, we hope to be able to cover the tent with solar

panels that work with light. The foil will be ready for production at the end of the year. If we can cover 40% of

the tent with it, it will be energy neutral.”

As well as pioneering applications focusing on sustainability, there were also innovations that were more

appealing to the imagination. Consider the powered exoskeleton that halves the burden for military

personnel. Also, a proper bike was guaranteed to attract attention. The Trefecta is not just any old bike,

however. Six of these special forces bikes are being used by military personnel for patrols in Mali. With

this futuristic-looking ‘indestructible’ means of transport, fully laden military personnel (160 kilos in total)

can reach speeds of more than 70 kilometres an hour. With electric power, they can keep this up for 100

kilometres.

Exoskeletons to lighten the load on soldiers

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The Virtual Reality Zone: a real life experience of the base of the future

We see countless innovations every year. It seems that every time we human beings set out to do something that seems impossible, our traditional thinking is challenged. In the world of innovation, we call these ‘moonshots’ or Apollo projects. Before announcing the space programme that would put a man on the moon, John F. Kennedy said: “We need men who can dream of things that never were and ask ’why not?’”. Albert Einstein once famously observed: “Imagination is more important than knowledge.” These men believed that imagination, asking ‘why not?’, was essential for invention and realizing ambitious projects.

Visitors of the Future Force Conference pick up 3D glasses to visit the future base themselves.

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At the Future Force Conference 2017, we were surrounded by images of an experimental base of the

future, that no-one outside the conference has seen yet. We were able to explore the experimental base in

virtual reality; a digital impression of what could be a possible ‘base of the future’, which looked as if it had

come straight out of Star Wars. Here, seemingly unlikely groups work together to rebuild a country, with

professionals ranging from medical specialists and diplomats to teachers, agricultural experts and of course

military personnel.

What could cooperation look like in the future base.

Central to this experience is the belief that Defence can and will cooperate more in shared zones. Special

areas where Defence, NGOs and others work together to restore stability in conflict regions. At the Future

Force Conference, we saw that shared zone and we asked all of you that powerful question: Why not?”

To offer this experience, the Dutch Ministry of Defence partnered with a fast-growing start-up in the

Netherlands, IC3D Media, that works with over 40 specialists in animation and virtual reality around

the world. This project was realized under the guidance of our Concept Development and

Experimentation Division.

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Images of the Virtual Base.

36

“ I’ve met so many people, from NATO, from different countries, military people, from think tanks, that I think this is one of the most important meetings that I’ve been to in the last 12 months. This is the seed that we plant for a better future.” Kitty van der Heijden, Director Africa and Europe at the World Resources Institute

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During the Future Force Conference 2017, 21 breakout sessions were held. Bringing together diverse and inspiring groups of people in these sessions led to thought- provoking discussions, new insights and innovative approaches. The breakout sessions addressed subjects relevant to today’s fast changing and challenging security environment. The objective: to exchange ideas, share best practices, synchronize efforts and establish points for concrete action. And, by working together, to achieve the final goal: a more stable and secure world.

Students from the Delft University of Technology (EPA MSc programme) and the Radboud University

(European Master System Dynamics) in Nijmegen drew up written reports of each breakout session.

They also added so-called causal loop diagrams to their reports.

In consultation with the ‘breakout owners’, the written reports were summarised on the basis of the following

6 questions/points:

• Which key themes and trends were discussed?

• Which challenges/issues were identified?

• What were possible solutions offered?

• Best practices/lessons learned

• Which recommendations/ideas emerged during the sessions?

• Memorable quotes

This chapter is the result of the above-mentioned process. In Appendix 1 you will find a short explanation of

how the causal loop diagrams should be read, and the meaning and structure of the diagrams as well as an

overall diagram relating to the ‘Defence Ecosystem’. The diagrams were drawn up by Erik Pruyt (Associate

Professor of System Dynamics and Policy Analysis at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management at

Delft University of Technology) and his team of students.

For a more complete overview of all the diagrams produced during the Future Force Conference, please go

to the website. There you will find diagrams per breakout as well as a complete PDF including a detailed

explanation of the method.

Breakout sessions, Future Force Conference 2017

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Breakout sessions:

1. A Cyber Space Odyssey 39

2. Access Denied 41

3. Are We All Being Served? 43

4. Base of the Future I 46

5. Base of the Future II 50

6. Borders in Global Disorder I 52

7. Borders in Global Disorder II 53

8. Children are the Future 55

9. Disruptive Technologies 57

10. Engineering for Peace 61

11. Fostering a Rule of Law Culture 63

12. Operation Peace 65

13. Powerful Structures I 67

14. Powerful Structures II 70

15. Private Resources for Public Threats 72

16. Rumble in the Urban Jungle 74

17. The End of Leadership? 76

18. The Natural Resources & Security Nexus 79

19. The Road to Durable Peace 81

20. Under Pressure 83

21. When warfare changes, so must Defence 85

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1 A Cyber Space Odyssey: information assurance versus offensive operations

Jaya Baloo (Chief Information Security Officer, KPN Telecom)

Hans Folmer (Commander, Defence Cyber Command)

Arjen Kamphuis (Lead Adviser Information Security, Brunel NV)

Huib Modderkolk (Investigative Reporter, De Volkskrant)

Phil Zimmermann (Creator PGP)

Which key themes and trends were discussed?

• One of the main tasks of the cyber community is to ensure cyber peace.

• We need to successfully manage information-related risks (Information assurance) and ensure integrity

of information.

• Transparency of various stakeholders involved is conducive to implementing sound policies.

• Assurance/Trust

• Cryptography and Encryption

Which challenges/issues were identified?

• Cyber, information and crypto war are no longer fiction.

• Human factors for cyber security issues.

• Critical infrastructure in cyber is rather vulnerable, which can have a severe impact on society at large.

• Most current solutions are local, even though they are an attempt at solving a global problem.

• Attribution of cyber operations.

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What were possible solutions offered?

• Information needs to be shared between parties to ensure meaningful cooperation and full access

to knowledge.

• Improving education and raising awareness can help raise a generation of experts better equipped

at finding appropriate solutions; public awareness of cyber threats would lower the potential risks.

It is necessary to educate current employees and decision makers as well.

• It is important to secure communication channels and protect them from a possible cyber-attack.

• Apply military solutions to the business environment and vice versa.

• Integrate cyber with human intelligence.

Best practices/lessons learned

• China Quantum Backbone: China’s efforts at achieving quantum encryption can serve as an inspiration.

• Phone applications such as Silent Phone.

• Pretty Good Privacy: encryption program successfully ensuring communication privacy and

authentication.

Which recommendations/ideas emerged during the sessions?

• The cyber ecosystem needs to develop a comprehensive information-sharing system for all parties invol-

ved in preventing cyber crime. Enforce by law if needed. Transparency, intelligence sharing should

be encouraged to prevent further attacks and better develop cyber defence mechanisms.

• Since the word ‘cyber’ does not really mean anything, it has been suggested that we stop using it

altogether. It is a container word, and should be combined with more specific terminology.

• Continue dialogue at the Cyber Operations Symposium in November 2017.

Quotes

• All of your secrets belong to us. (Jaya Baloo)

• Complexity was built with open access in mind, not with security in mind. (Jaya Baloo)

• We all use the same crap everywhere. (Jaya Baloo)

• If everyone thinks that there is going to be a war, there is going to be a war. (Arjen Kamphuis)

• The best way to prevent a war is to stop talking about it so much. (Arjen Kamphuis)

• The country is not your enemy. It is the outbreak of the war itself. (Arjen Kamphuis)

• There is no winning of a cyber war. (Arjen Kamphuis)

• We can’t have back doors, they will be used by bad guys. (Phil Zimmerman)

For more information on the system dynamics diagram

and other deliverables, please visit www.ffc2017.org

http://futureforceconference.com/Web_Diagrammen.pdf

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2 Access Denied: dealing with degraded political and operational environments

Rob de Wijk (Director HCSS)

Rt. Hon. Baroness Neville-Jones (Member of the House of Lords (UK) and former Minister of State

for Security and Counter-Terrorism)

Jamie Shea (Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO HQ)

Jaap de Hoop Scheffer (Professor of International Relations and Diplomatic Affairs, Leiden University)

Jan Swillens (Brigadier General, Netherlands Ministry of Defence)


• Warfare may take place below the NATO-article 5 threshold: conflict may occur under the surface. New

ways should be found to tackle these emerging threats.

• Controlling information is increasingly important. In the era of alternative facts and internal degradation,

the focus should be on influencing public opinion. Even our partners are afraid that we will not come to

their aid, the Baltics for example.

• Cyber is obviously important as well. But we have to keep in mind that we do not underestimate our ad-

versaries’ capabilities, what a cyber war will look like, and even our own capabilities.

• According to Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, President Trump’s main foreign policy theme will be US relations with

China. This may also provide opportunities.

Which challenges and issues were identified?

• Mal-deployment: the US has its main troop bases in the US, while Europe does not put the main force of

its army where it is necessary. Currently, 5,000 NATO troops are stationed in the Baltic states, versus

42

450,000 Russian troops just across the border.

• Owing to cyber threats – which we do not know what they will look like – we have to rethink our capabili-

ties. What if our communication systems are jammed?

• Russia is increasingly discussing the nuclear option. This is very alarming. They feel surrounded, which

leads to such talk.


• Increase defence spending to 2% of GDP in 5 years (remark by De Hoop Scheffer).

• Bargain with President Trump. He needs to consult Europe before he makes a deal with Russia in exchange

for an increase in European defence spending.


• Communications might be jammed. We therefore need to retain the old way of doing things, i.e. maps on

the wall. If we are not prepared accordingly, our operations might suffer.

• Deterrence is key in order to prevent a move to the nuclear stage. This means not letting aggression go

until it escalates, but countering it immediately to make clear where NATO stands. Unintended incidents

need to be prevented.

• The days of ‘reversed Marxism’ (Shae) are gone. This was the time when Marxist regimes disintegrated of

their own accord. This no longer happens, so we need to actively engage in critical areas such as the Baltics

and the Middle-East, as more and more states are trying to re-instate their ‘spheres of influence’.

Quotes

• The new domain of the battle is domestic. (Jamie Shea)

• Putin plays a weak hand brilliantly. (Jaap de Hoop Scheffer)

• Young people may have great ideas, but if they don’t act upon them it’s just conversation. (Jamie Shae)




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3 Are We All Being Served? women and men & the importance of being inclusive

Anne-Floor Dekker (Policy Advisor, Wo=Men)

Anne Kwakkenbos (Policy Advisor, Wo=Men)

Marriët Schuurman (Special Representative on Women, Peace and Security, NATO)

Nicolien Zuijdgeest (Facilitator of Change, Arabist)

Nikki de Zwaan (Policy Advisor and Programme Manager Security & Justice, Cordaid)

Carla Schouwenaars (Anthropologist)

Mekka Abdelgabar (Executive Director, LEAP)


• Inclusiveness.

• UN Security Council Resolution 1325: Women, Peace and Security.

• Integrated approach.

• Partnerships.

• Gender mainstreaming of security.

• Security Sector Reform (SSR).


• How to better deliver on UN mandates as a military or security organisation.

• Polarization is extremely powerful. How can we fight this?

• Are our organizations a reflection of the new world/society?

• Establish whose security it is that we are concerned with.

• The importance of gender in military operations.

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• The needs of women in the defence sector.

• How to ensure long-lasting change of the gender paradigm.

• How to translate the gender norm into key priorities.


• Gender is important for operational and institutional effectiveness. A gender perspective offers an analyti-

cal tool to better understand insecurity and conflict, to understand our impact, and ensure that we do not

do more harm than good. It also ensures an inclusive and integrated approach to defence, diplomacy and

development. The protection of civilians is more successful when there’s more understanding on the role

of gender.

• A gender perspective offers a more holistic perspective to security issues. This is extremely important

given that programmes are often developed on the basis of security priorities within the context.

• We need to not only talk to women in leadership positions, but also engage and speak with those not at the

negotiation table.

• Gender is deeply personal; it’s close to who we are and central to how we conceive realities. So it’s impor-

tant that we change our own mindset of set roles/our own convictions of how we should act/look/behave.

Maintain an open mindset.

• Gender represents an agenda for change. But it can only happen with leadership at all levels and with

partnerships that build alliances to ensure lasting peace and security.

• We have to work together with unlikely actors, actors we normally do not speak to.

• Strengthening national institutions, ensuring accountability and oversights is integral to ensuring inclusive

change.

• One way to enhance inclusiveness is let operations like support, training, funding and development aid

abroad depend on the inclusion of children’s and women’s rights.


• Be gender-sensitive. Encourage others to be gender-sensitive. For operational effectiveness and instituti-

onal excellence.

• We need to bring the challenge home. We need to embody the change we seek, to live the norms and va-

lues we promote elsewhere. And that starts by reflecting on our internal structures and its shortcomings

on inclusiveness.

• Important for international actors to provide women the safe space to speak up; it changes the dynamic;

they bring different issues to the table.

• Change everyday routines to include people with different mindsets in order to better respond to the

complexities of today’s world.

• To maintain U.N. capability and credibility, we have to make sure no resources are left untapped. Thus,

women have to be included in security provision on various levels.

• Gender equality is not optional, it is fundamental to sustainable peace and security and should therefore

be a more integral part of strategic considerations.

Quotes

• It is not all about talking to women in military operations. (Anne Kwakkenbos)

• Gender is not about women, it’s a perspective, an analytical tool. (Marriët Schuurman)

• Keep it practical, start at home. (Marriet Schuurman)

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• The key challenge is to convince political leaders, not military men, because the military already knows.

(Marriët Schuurman)

• Promoting equality is not a favour to women, but a core security interest.( Marriët Schuurman)

• Cultural relativism is not about culture, but about holding on to power. (Marriët Schuurman.

• Gender is intimately personal and utterly political. (Annemieke Verrijp, Strategic Policy Adviser at the

Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

• How are we enabled to serve to the best of our abilities? (Annemieke Verrijp)

• Gender is not only an analytical tool, but also a political one, to conquer, to shape, to change minds, to

polarise, to use as a destabilizing tool. (Annemieke Verrijp)




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4 Base of the Future I: peacekeeping missions in the city – design for legacy

Malkit Shoshan (Founder of the architectural think tank FAST. The Foundation for Achieving Seamless Territory)

Joel van der Beek (Economist, Director Econovision)

Erella Grassiani (Anthropologist, University of Amsterdam)

Puck van Dijk (Philosophical Moderator)

Floris Alkemade (Chief Government Architect, Chairman of the Board of Government Advisors)

Debra Solomon (Founder of Urbaniahoeve, social design lab for urban agriculture)

Erwin Marx (Senior Staff Officer for Infrastructure & EP at Directorate of Operations)

Renilda Steeghs (Ambassador for Cultural Cooperation, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs)


• How to integrate local community needs into the needs of the military base to improve peace-making efforts.


• How to solve the time gap: referring to combining all different perspectives in practice.

• Anthropological view: how to combine local and ‘Western’ perspectives? First, cooperate with the locals.

Second: who are the locals? What are their views, ideas, feelings and so on? Understand them in all

different ways.

47


• Combine all different kinds of expertise. This is a theoretical solution; in practice, it appears that we have

not yet reached this stage.

• Broaden the 3D-perspective: defence, diplomacy, and development.


• Tailor projects: initiate a (design) process to tailor (Western) ambitions and interventions to local context

(J.W. Petersen).

• Make a concrete link between Western ambitions and local reality.


• Integration of a wide range of sectors, both governmental and non-governmental, when planning a

mission. This to create unified goals and positive outcomes for all actors involved (e.g. local communities,

military, government).

• Tailor-made approach: by taking into account the local level, perspective, ideas, wishes and culture.

• Be aware of your impact abroad. Be aware of possible (negative) influence in the surrounding area. Merely

being present will influence the population one way or another.

Quotes

• From a designer perspective: ‘If you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail’. (Floris Alkemade)

• Use bases as food for the next generation. (Floris Alkemade)

• Conflicts cannot be solved in isolation. (Malkit Shoshan)

• Crises have a circular effect that needs to be taken into account. (Malkit Shoshan)




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5 Base of the Future II: city as peacekeeping mission- urban diplomacy

Ekim Tan (Director, Play the City)

Marina Otero Verzier (Head of Research and Development, Het Nieuwe Instituut)

Jan Willem Petersen (founder, Specialist Operations)

Kilian Kleinschmidt (Global Networker and Humanitarian Expert, Founder and Chairman, Innovation and

Planning Agency)

Thijs van den Boomen (Independent Writing and Editing Professional)


• Ensuring sustainable urban peace, individual freedom and safety.

• To rethink safety and security in cities. To guarantee that this is dependent on the protection of citizen’s

rights and freedoms, fundamental for democracy.

• Foster an understanding between urban stakeholders and military actors, improve collaboration.

• Introduction of ‘design-thinking’ in managing crisis situations through a pluralistic approach (ensuring

food, water, shelter).


• Enabling actors to jointly, collaboratively and constructively work on urban challenges, including clarifying

misconceptions of stakeholders.

• In face of an attack on the city, restoring disrupted critical infrastructure while maintaining civil rights and

safety.

• Identifying vital focus areas in which actors could collaborate, reinforce agendas, demonstrate an overlap

of interests, or take on board lessons from alternative approaches.

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• The neighbourhood is a central component in central government’s response to crisis. Establishing a local

communication grid to empower municipalities and deal with crises paired with the support of higher

authorities.

• Decentralize crisis management which will lead to the ability to tailor responses and foster a better

understanding of the situation at hand.

• People are resilient and powerfully proactive. Offering support to locally owned initiatives, such as

volunteer networks, raises solidarity among citizens and helps to overcome crisis situations inventively.

• Integration of low and high technologies for the provision of urban security.

• To take into account the role of cultural activities in ensuring the well-being of individuals in the midst of a

safety crisis or security thread.


• From the riots in LA and London, we learned to protect vulnerable neighbourhoods.

• ‘Neighbourhood governance’ in Chicago or Rotterdam (bottom-up approach). The local population often

knows how best to identify the most urgent security and safety issues. Their identification of focus points

is different to those identified by security forces.

• The military and the civilian domains are increasingly aware that maintaining a sustainable peace in cities

is a joint challenge. An inherent willingness to collaborate and voice criticism at independent approaches

allows for improved responses overall.


• A socially inclusive stance, a measured security response, and bottom-up approach towards the crisis were

widely rooted in various disciplines.

• Seeing vastly different fields collaborating and discussing in a rather organic manner is arguably a cultural

leap in ensuring peace and security.

• A shift in thinking, and use of language, is desirable and arguably needed. ‘Positive’ security focuses on the

urban context, seeking potential measures that enable safety, rather than introducing hardline measures

that curb threats.

• Feelings of belonging and trust can foster feelings of security and inflate resilience. Communicating

positive and useful news through media and refraining from rumour-mongering can spread such feelings.

Quotes

• Security for one person means insecurity for another. (Anonymous)

• Beyond survival, less formal activities such as dancing, singing, having fun, not being serious all the time,

can help people get past crises. (Kilian Kleinschmidt)

• Responding to major logistical needs is not so problematic. We made it problematic by rejecting the

available means and opportunities. (Kilian Kleinschmidt)

• A significant dilemma for the armed forces is the deployment of forces in urban zones. On the one hand,

when there is barely any presence, criticism is expressed. But on the other: too many soldiers will make

people feel unsafe, since it gives them the impression something is going on. (young soldier)




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6 Borders in Global Disorder I: challenges beyond, along, and across the borders

Jacki Davis (moderator)

Sigrid Kaag (UN Special Coordinator Lebanon)

Antonio Missiroli (Director, European Union Institute for Security Studies)

Monika Sie Dhian Ho (General Director, Clingendael Institute)

Tom Nuttal Charlemagne (Columnist, The Economist)


• Immigration flows

• Border Security

• Re-evaluation of (European) asylum policies and cooperation


• How to get all actors to work together in today’s world with developments such as globalization, populism

and the capability gap.

• Host countries need support.

• One must be aware of the limitations of host countries.

• Prevalent lack of support for measures to receive refugees.

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• Ensure that regional survival strategies are strengthened, not frustrated. Get policy makers and other

stakeholders on the same page regarding the migration crisis and work together.

• Create legal and safe routes for refugees: maintain security at borders, regulate, but ensure that doors can

be opened.


• There is not a “one size fits all” approach to migration because different localities face different problems.

A migration strategy should be adapted to the specific context in which it is to be deployed.

• While collaboration with host countries, such as Turkey, in halting migration appears to work, smugglers

also adapt: e.g. by providing satellite phones to refugees for contacting the Italian coast guard and gaining

access to the EU.


• Policymakers: develop a more humane solution to the migration crisis, do not create thicker borders and

walls.

• Devise a comprehensive and inclusive policy solution for migration, where various actors work together.

To create common ground with opposing groups, we should build a narrative that focuses on borders as a

means to regulate, invite and protect. Show the benefits of managed migration.

• There should be more support and awareness of the capabilities, but also of the limits and problems of

host countries, such as Lebanon. They are at the limit of their absorption capacity.

Quotes

• It will become our problem, if not today, then tomorrow. (Sigrid Kaag)

• If we fail to make the case, we need to rethink our approach. (Sigrid Kaag)

• If we don’t export stability outside our borders, we’ll import instability. (Tom Nuttall Charlemagne)

• The normative debate about the refugee crisis is between the heartless and the brainless, and you really

need the whole of your heart and of your brain. (Monika Sie Dhian Ho)



7 Borders in Global Disorder II: the fault line of external and internal security

Jacki Davis (moderator)

Rear Admiral Luc-Marie Lefebvre (Deputy Operation Commander EUNAVFORMED, Operation Sophia)

Lieutenant General Harry van den Brink (Commander, Royal Netherlands Marechaussee)

Pieter Voeten (Managing Director, EASP Air MARSUR/ISR)

Christof Roos (Research Professor, Migration and Diversity)


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• The role of bureaucracy

• Paradigm shift: need for cooperation and trust

• Sharing responsibility of the border between EU actors


• How to reduce migration pressure and make repatriation efficient?

• How to strengthen weak states surrounding Europe?

• Government and EU agencies defend their own turf/budget etc., how to trust and cooperate with each

other?


• Reduce migration by providing refuge in home countries and humanitarian visas, as well as dismantling the

smuggling business. Making repatriation more effective.

• Offering ‘doors in the border’ by using a softer visa policy, giving people legal opportunities to gain access

to Europe, reducing illegal migration.


• Turn to unusual suspects. They have access to other information, offering new perspectives.

• Start on a small experimental scale, so have evidence to validate further action if the experiment worked.

• Industry and border agencies should strengthen their links. Together they have the tools and skills

necessary to cope with the challenges of border security.


• Establish a national-level task force to bring together industrial-military stakeholders. Enhance asset- and

knowledge-sharing regarding border control solutions. For example: agile radio systems may be useful

for border guards to detect smugglers or migrants, but industry does not know where to turn with these

ideas. Bringing the border security ecosystem together in a task force can better lead to direct impact.

• Clear strategic communication targeted towards migrants, as well as with countries of origin and transit

countries.

• Increase training of local border patrol agencies to improve the situation in the home countries, especially

if the government does not allow interference in territorial waters.

Quotes

• Don’t fight, but guide migration. Because migration will persist in the future. (Harry van den Brink)

• The most important borders lie in our own organizations. (Harry van den Brink)

• Convincing people by example is the only way forward, step by step. (Pieter Voeten)

• If we use bureaucracy to combat bureaucracy, we might not be successful (Harry van den Brink)




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8 Children are the Future: engaging new generations in the local ecosystem

Carmen Elena Aleman (Deputy Country Director, El Salvador Plan International)

Anna Barrett (Country Director at War Child Holland)

Tjipke Bergsma (CEO at War Child Holland)

Roeland Monasch (CEO at Aflatoun International)


• The psychological and biological effects of conflicts on youths.

• Prevent the creation of a Lost Generation.

• Relationship between the older and younger generations.

• Economic and social empowerment to escape poverty, the criminal circuit and the horrors of war

(perspectives).

• Engagement of youth in local ecosystems.


• Providing a future for children who are displaced.

• Children over the age of 12 can be seen as a threat by the military.

• Providing safe and good jobs in conflict affected areas.

• In conflict settings, children are trained for violence and do not complete their education.

• Children forced into violence and perceived as war criminals by their own community. This makes post-

conflict (re-)integration difficult and sometimes impossible.

• How to engage young people in fragile states.

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• Lack of opportunities and access to basic needs (education, employment, basic resources) in poor or

conflict-ridden areas.

• Discrimination and repression of basic human rights and liberties (LGBT rights, for instance).


• Make good preparations (training, investment, school opportunities) for the economic engagement of

young people. Let them create their own possibilities to succeed in life.

• Engage children.

• Create a functioning IT infrastructure in fragile states.

• Humanitarian actors need to listen to young people to identify their needs and find suitable solutions.

Provide a sense of belonging and participation (in order to prevent them joining dangerous groups).

• Invest in social (life) skills and financial empowerment.

• Humanitarian actors need to think about local needs and contextualize their programmes.


• Computer education to young people by War Child (Uganda, 2008). Eight years later, a community ICT

center is still run by young people and generating income.

• With regard to humanitarian assistance, do not only focus on younger children because adolescence is

also a very important phase in the forming of the brain. We have the possibility to positively engage and

empower young people until they reach 25 years of age.

• In the humanitarian process, give young people who have experienced a conflict a second, third and fourth

chance to reinstate themselves in society.

• The train-the-trainer concept goes a long way towards engaging young people, as well as increasing the

reach of programmes for traumatized youths.

• Conduct extensive market assessment. Focus on: existing private investment, labour supply and demand,

and potential partners (municipalities, private sector, training centres).

• Select a clear target group for youth programmes (e.g. 16-25) and focus special attention on women.

• The ‘Life skills and financial education for peace’ programme by Aflatoun encourages social and financial

empowerment.

• ‘Theatre for Peace’: theatre as a therapeutic tool for young people.

• Plan International’s youth economic empowerment programme in El Salvador first scans the labour

market, identifies its needs and finds target groups (young people). They are trained in soft skills, matched

with market demand and supported by the organization for 6 (if they join the market) or 12 months (if they

become entrepreneurs) through employment fairs and coaching sessions.


• More participation of young people in the decision-making process and ensuring mutual understanding

between generations.

• The military should interact with the local population and especially with the youth through briefings

about the military status of the area.

• Develop a strategy for training opportunities targeted at the local labour market.

• Young people should be trained to speak out in youth programmes and adults should be trained to listen to

them.

• Develop approaches for young children and adolescents that last until they are well into their twenties in

order to have a lasting impact on their future.

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• Humanitarian actors and governments often think about the costs of humanitarian programmes, but

they should actually think about the costs of lost generations. Do not only examine the current economic

figures for creating stability. Also look at the economic figures about the costs of (not tackling) instability.

• An effective humanitarian ecosystem must consist of governments, NGOs, international organizations,

and other traditional humanitarian actors, but also of parents, local institutions (e.g. churches) or children

themselves.

Quotes

• Anyone will do anything for money; this is increasing violence and decreasing safety in Lebanon.

(Warde Bou Daher)

• People will do anything when there is no economic stability; consequently, safety decreases as well.

(Warde Bou Daher)

• Investment in youth gives the highest profit you can achieve. (Hassan Mortada)

• Warlords understand a lot about youth engagement. If there are no other offers of engagement for young

people, what do we expect? (Anna Barrett)

• You can triple your dividend by investment in young people. (Anna Barrett)




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9 Disruptive Technologies: adapting linear organizations to exponential developments

Jeroen de Jonge (Business Director, TNO)

Frank Wammes (CTO Application Services Continental Europe Capgemini)

Jan Willem Burgers (Global Blockchain Practise, Lead Europe Capgemini)

Jaap Lombaers (Innovation Director, TNO)

René de Jongh (Strategy Director, Thales Netherlands)

Ana Baros (Principal Scientist, TNO)

Rick Meessen (Principal Advisor Defence and Security, TNO)

Agnes Dinkelman (Social Engineer, Stillare)

Daan Noort (Principal Scientist, TNO)

Adelbert Bronkhorst (Principal Scientist, TNO)

Michael Kolenbrander (Global Blockchain Practise, Solution Architect, Capgemini)


• Battery technology

• Border security

• Block-chain and ecosystems

• Converged reality

• Disruptive technologies

• Data integrity

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• Deeper understanding of disruptive technologies.

• Utopian versus dystopian worldview: to what extent can new technologies be used to improve our society

or be abused for criminal purposes?

• Dependency on technology, ensuring humanity remains integrated in the process of developing

(disruptive) technology. Are we (humans) obsolete? Are we (humans) in control?

• Most organizations are not equipped to foster innovation: do we need to do things differently to adapt

disruptive technologies?

• Reduce threats and maximize the opportunities of new (disruptive) technologies.

• The dystopian threats of disruptive technologies pose a substantial threat to our civilization.

• How to deal with designer bias?

• Can we forecast attacks from Big Data?


• More communication about effects of disruptive technology.

• When developing new disruptive technology, first target consumer technology before implementing it in

the military.

• Robotics: humans must decide on where to integrate technologies.

• Personalized actionable intelligence (PAI): train awareness and communicate the risks of PAI. Explore

second and third order effects of PAI on human behaviour. What are the problems of having too much

information, too much to process. Furthermore, we should become leaders in this respect to be able to

frame technologies according to our principles/worldviews, set boundaries.

• Radar: largest growth of strategic capabilities in the field of sensing spy satellites and drones. We should

shorten the development cycle. Start small and just do it.

• Bioweapons: cross-sectoral collaborations are vital. Defence communities have to cooperate with

individual citizens, private companies and also with biohackers.


• Fast short-cycle development. First, target easily available innovations that can be implemented relatively

quickly and cheaply to come to a fast development of technologies (start small).

• It is vital to open up a dialogue between tech companies and the Ministry of Defence. Then assess how a

specific technology can support a specific issue.

• Block-chaining should not be seen as a Trojan Horse. Indeed, block-chain technologies are used by criminal

networks, but this is a common phenomenon. Criminal organizations always dive into new technologies

quickly, because they want to stay ahead of the game.

• Learn from patterns, implement changes: start low means, when applicable make it secure.

• In themselves, new technologies are not threats. It is the human component that makes them a benefit or

threat.


• Ensure that disruptive technology will be used for the utopian worldview. Useful tools can be used for bad

things as well.

• A significant amount of innovation is failing. A rigorous framework is needed to achieve applied

innovation: discover, devise, deploy, sustain (Capgemini Applied Innovation Exchange framework).

• Practical implementation of robotics in consumer technologies is applicable to healthcare, elderly care and

people with disabilities.

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• For technological progress, the sky is the limit. However, it is hard to distinguish how reliable our data is

and hence the decisions we make on the basis of this data.

• Increased synergy between military and civilian R&D. Many technologies developed in the civilian field

have potential military application, and vice versa. Drone swarms for observation and search & destroy

operations could potentially be used in agriculture for advanced crop pollination. Civil developed liquid

cooling technology for computers and datacenters could be used to decrease the heat signature of military

systems that are to remain covert.

• Tight cooperation between the Ministry of Defence and IT Companies to improve the technological

advances in the field of disruptive technologies.

Quotes

• It’s not the gun, but the man behind the gun that kills. (Jeroen de Jonge)

• We develop in time. (Adelbert Bronkhorst)

• We need to move into the 3D dimension. (Jaap Lombaers)

• If they have it, they can use it against you. (Ana Barros)

• One of quotes I like in the field of Artificial Intelligence is by Elon Musk: “I hope they will be nice to us.”

(Frank Wammes)

• The most scarce resource of our time is the ethical philosopher. (Frank Wammes)




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10 Engineering for Peace: empowering sustainability, good governance and peace through technology

Damon Golriz (Research Fellow of Institute International Peace and Justice and Security)

Fareed Ismail (Mechanical Design Lecturer, Cape Peninsula University of Technology)

Patrick Huntjens (Senior Researcher, The Hague Institute for Global Justice)

Theodor Kranefeld (Project Secretary, Boomym)

Ruben Walker (Commercial Director, African Clean Energy)

Maurits Groen (Founder and CEO, WakaWaka)

Otto Kroesen (Department of Philosophy at Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft)

Luigi Lipparini (Business Developer, Fairphone)


• Natural resources crisis

• Affordable and sustainable energy

• Resource strategy: innovation to provide for basic needs.

• Balancing sustainable development with social equity


• There is an increasing scarcity of natural resources due to population growth.

• There is a need for innovative strategies to ensure equitable access to food and water and adequate

standards of living.

• It is unclear who is or should be accountable for existing problems, and thus it is unclear who is responsible

for solving them.

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• Unclear whether ‘new’ solutions are truly efficient, effective and sustainable.

• Lack of awareness of problems surrounding natural resource provision.

• (Structural) migration pressures due to a lack of good governance, civil war and uncertainty.

• There is a need for technological innovation that is equitable, sustainable and effective: smart engineering

to foster peace.


• Good governance, participatory governance and inclusiveness based around an adequate legal framework.

This allows one to face existing challenges more effectively.

• It is important to have transparency in innovation processes in order to monitor progress.

• Coordination of information gathering also plays a role here.


• The target group of innovation should be involved in research and development and the implementation of

innovative technology to ensure its long term use.

• A bottom-up approach to innovation (transparent, accountable and problem-solving) will help to build and

maintain peace. Local initiatives should be supported in this.

• Young people have to be mobilized to take action and develop (innovative) solutions for the pressures on

resources.

• Technology should be introduced in early life stages to provide alternative livelihoods.

• The challenges addressed in the social sciences should be bridged with engineering.

Quotes

• There can be no peace and development without water. (Jan Eliasson - UN)




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11 Fostering a Rule of Law Culture: a comprehensive approach to rule of law promotion in fragile and conflict-affected environments

Alia Aoun (Senior Legal Advisor Humanitarian Affairs and International Law, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lebanon)

Ben Ferencz (Former International Prosecutor in Nuremberg)

Cynthia Petrigh (Founder, Beyond Peace)

Nikola Dimitrov (Distinguished Fellow, The Hague Institute for Global Justice)

Joris Voorhoeve (Professor of International Organizations, The Hague University of Applied Sciences/Leiden

University)

James Stewart (ICC Deputy Prosecutor)


• The role of the military in upholding and promoting the rule of law, particularly in fragile and conflict-

affected environments.

• The benefits of training non-state armed groups in international humanitarian law.

• Balancing the demands of peace and justice and facilitating a transition from negative peace to positive peace.

• The importance of maintaining political support for rule of law promotion efforts worldwide.


• How can the military uphold and promote the rule of law internationally.

• What tools and approaches are particularly effective for training militaries and armed groups in the rule of law.

• How should we balance the demands of peace and justice in a post-conflict environment?

• How can we ensure consistent political support for rule of law promotion internationally?

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• Militaries should be trained to collect evidence and information for potential future investigations into

and prosecutions of international crimes. Additionally, the military may apprehend suspects and provide

testimony in court.

• Demonstrating how adherence to the rule of law is in the self-interest of militaries. It elicits civilian

support and helps to maintain authority and command and control structures.

• Rule of law promotion in post-conflict environments should be complementary to efforts to establish and

maintain order.


• The inclusion of women in peace processes in Northern Ireland, Colombia and South Africa had a

significant impact on the success and sustainability of peace processes.

• The training of Malian combatants in the rule of law demonstrates that such training courses are effective

in creating behavioral change that improves the rule of law.

• Post-civil war Lebanon prioritized peace over justice, and thus got neither. Peace without justice is a

temporary, negative peace.


• The MoD and/or other entities should establish an international military award for upholding the rule

of law and promoting justice. The current system exclusively rewards acts of bravery, rather than the

prevention of violence or international crimes.

• Peacekeeping efforts must include education and training on the rule of law for police and military forces.

• Support the ICC in its investigation and prosecution efforts by collecting information and evidence,

reporting on violations of international law and providing expert knowledge.

• Provide consistent international support (both political and material) to countries such as Lebanon, which

are bearing the brunt of the current refugee crisis. This is especially important for preventing the erosion

of the rule of law in the face of dire political, social and economic challenges.

Quotes

• Law, not war should be your guide. You will save billions of dollars every day, not to say how many millions

of lives. (Ben Ferencz)

• When they ask us to wage war, they give us weapons; but when they ask us to uphold rule of law, we don’t

know what the tools are, we don’t have the tools. (Cynthia Petrigh)

• Guess what? If you don’t loot and rape, a lot of people may support you. (Cynthia Petrigh)

• We learned the difference between a professional army and a group of bandits. (Malian combatant as

quoted by Cynthia Petrigh)

• International criminal justice is a long game. The ICC and its credibility were built brick by brick. (James

Stewart)

• Military actors make varied and important contributions to international criminal justice. (James Stewart)

• Democracy is the result of, not the reason for, the rule of law. (Joris Voorhoeve)




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12 Operation Peace: challenges to peacekeeping in the 21st century

Colonel Joost de Wolf (Maritime Plans, NATO)

Anne Flaspöler (Postdoctoral Researcher, EDDA)

Agnes Dinkelman (Social Engineer, Stillare)

Ortrun Merkle (PhD fellow, UNU-MERIT)

Diego Salama (Communications Officer)

Pui-Hang (PhD fellow at Maastricht Graduate School of Governance and UNU-MERIT)

Khalid Koser (Executive Director, Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund)

Richard Ponzio (Project Director Just Security 2020 (Global Commision)

Walter Dorn (Professor, Canadian Forces College and Chair of the Master of Defence Studies Programme,

Royal Military College)


• Peacekeeping architecture

• Evolution of mandates

• Troop-contributing countries

• New technologies


• How can we secure that wherever the peacekeepers come from they can be sufficiently trained?

• Ensuring that all peacekeeping mandates have a human security component. It needs to be ensured that

stabilization mandates use force in a proportional and strategic manner. The 1st or 2nd generation peace-

keeping mindset still persists in multi-dimensional mandates. There is a need to adapt to new challenges.

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• Mission are still severely underequipped.

• NATO countries seem to be the least resilient during dangerous missions.


• There has to be a minimum standard in terms of training (military, technical, language training, etc.), no

matter where troops come from.

• New actors, such as terrorist armed groups, require a whole different approach to the military mission, as

seen in MINUSMA, MINUSCA, MONUSCO.

• The UN needs to explore more ways to cooperate with regional organizations and deploy hybrid missions.


• Regional organisations should be more involved in peacekeeping and should take the lead wherever they

have the capacity.

• The UN Security Council needs to have more realistic expectations when writing mandates.

• There should be a more effective mechanism for rapid response.

• The DPKO alongside the member states needs to enure that all troops receive more comprehensive pre-

deployment training (this includes technical and military training, but also language training, for example).

• An important part of the mandate should be engagement with civil society on the ground.

• The UN Security Council needs to ensure that the missions receive equipment in a timely manner.

Quotes

• So there are such great possibilities for peacekeeping in the future, especially combined with the steady

advance of technology. (Walter Dorn)

• You’re not going to help local populations who are in harm’s way unless you have both civilian responses as

well as the military side; I think we’re really moving into the next generation of integrated missions today;

it’s much more than just a nice, rhetorical flourish. (Richard Ponzio)

• But we all have the same interest at the end of the day and that is about making the world a safer place and

more pleasant to live in. (Joost de Wolf)

• I think we can all learn from each other – academics, diplomats and military – and I think especially in a

field like peacekeeping that’s really important because it involves so many different actors, so we need to

listen to each other and share our perspectives. (Anne Flaspöler)




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13 Powerful Structures I: achieving an organizational ecosystem strategy (HCSS)

Stephan de Spiegeleire (Hague Centre for Strategic Studies)

Nataliya Popovych (President of Be-It, co-founder and board member of Ukraine Crisis Media Centre)

Andriy Zahorodnyuk (Ministry of Defence, Ukraine)


• The decentralization of defence capabilities, whereby the Ministry of Defence and the army look outward

towards people that have an expertise that can be used for defence or security.

• Strategic communication in the interest of the country (as opposed to in the interest of politicians).

• Change management within the Ministry of Defence and Army.

• Development of defence through the ages.

• Social technologies (layers of defence).

• Future of defence.

• Whole-of-government approaches.


• How to use bottom-up approaches to defence and security.

• How to work together in the network of news makers and the media and let the story be heard.

• How to make changes in the rigid nature of the army and ministry.

• Unexplored areas of engagement still have to be identified and mapped.

• Setting up a defence ecosystem inspired on platform-based companies is challenging.

• Civilians are not used to (hybrid) warfare.

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• Trading part of control of the Ministry of Defence for efficiency.

• Using networks, both of international media organisations and general citizens with knowledge in order to

gain and distribute knowledge.

• Create pockets of excellence to foster change within the Ministry of Defence and the military.

• Strategic custodianship of defence should be more important: for instance Stratcom could be outsourced.

• Media regulations should be stricter to counter undesired foreign interference.

• A holistic approach should be implemented using people from different backgrounds: achieving a feeling

of responsibility and ownership.


• Create pockets of excellence to foster change and think up new ways to organise things.

• Media should give the whole picture, both victories and failures, from different viewpoints to better

facilitate critical-thinking processes.

• More emphasis on resilience and ownership of problems by citizens.

• Using skills learned in a private setting and applying them to a military setting, through for instance civil

military interaction.

• Stratcom tactics applied in Ukraine have been proven to be effective.

• Civilian control over the military chain of command is important. When this is not there, such as was the

case in Ukraine, a potentially dangerous situation is created.


• Approach defence as a platform organisation, wherein experts in their field with an interest in defence can

add value.

• Work together in networks to acquire and spread knowledge.

• Simplify bureaucracy and cut red tape.

• The military, other government entities and captains of industry need to apply field proven Stratcom

tactics (e.g. from Ukraine). Governments need to train these actors to become storytellers, so that they

can help with Stratcom and enhance resilience. If you fail to tell the story, someone else will tell it for you,

but with a different spin.

• Civil media outlets could counter propaganda by not merely countering an ‘alternative fact’, but by

refuting the information. This could be done by making use of experts and infographics and distributing

the information among different outlets.

• The Dutch and EU Stratcom should make use of lessons learned in Ukraine by letting Ukrainian Stratcom

officers train them.

• Identify which actor is best suited to direct the information ecosystem. This does not have to be the

Ministry of Defence, as was the case in Ukraine.

Quotes

• We had tens of thousands of people outside of the military who decided that the future of the country was

now their personal matter.” (Andriy Zahorodnyuk)

• Bureaucracy kills you on the battlefield. (Andriy Zahorodnyuk)

• Hope cannot be part of strategy. (Andriy Zahorodnyuk)

• By taking responsibility for Ukraine they were also adding to the security of the world. (Nataliya Popovych)

• Never fall in the Russian propaganda trap, stick to your own morale. (Nataliya Popovych)

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• You cannot give authoritarian propaganda a chance to be heard. It is not 50/50 true or false, but it is 90%

fake. (Nataliya Popovych)

• Your ecosystem is larger than you think. (Nataliya Popovych)

• It is the way we leverage ourselves as humans, that is the way we want to achieve the things we want to

achieve. (Stephan De Spiegeleire)

• We still see strikes as a physical exercise but this is exactly what Russia is doing. It has a tool, a vector, a

payload and a target, it is a strike. (Stephan De Spiegeleire)




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14 Powerful Structures II: ways in which an organizational ecosystem strategy can be achieved, from drawing board to reality

Helena Lisachuk (Director, Deloitte High Tech Competence Centre and Global Deloitte IOT leader)

Stef Oud (Managing Partner, Deloitte High Tech Competence Centre)


• An ecosystem is more dynamic than a standard network.

• Ecosystems are new opportunities.

• Combining technological innovation with social impact.


• There is a need for ‘datapreneurs’: people who have an understanding of data but also of the legal and

social impact and the effect on businesses.

• We need to be more flexible and more agile when we want an ecosystem to be successful.


• Improve upon the existing ecosystem or join an existing one rather than adopting an entirely new one.

• Making clear and transparent rules and regulations for the ecosystem, that everyone has to adhere to.


• When working in an ecosystem, it is not about building it from scratch, but about bringing existing

structures together, activating and mobilizing actors.

• Successful examples of applying an ecosystem approach usually include actors that are already set up or

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have experience of working in a particular area.

• It is important to have a platform at the base of an ecosystem. The platform in itself is not an ecosystem

but an enabler to connect the ecosystem.


• To build an effective and efficient ecosystem that successfully mobilizes a range of different actors, it is

important to ask the following questions:

► What is the objective?

► What is your role?

► What is the value that you can add?

► Why do you want to this?

• Transparency is essential for trust. Actors within an ecosystem must be able to see what you’ve done, the

value of your effort, and your intentions.

• To bring together competitors within a single grand ecosystem, it’s important to create themes actors can

specialise in (e.g. smart industry, smart government), so that competitors do not necessarily have to work

on the same thing together.

Quotes

• A changing world leads to ecosystems. (Deloitte)

• If you want to attract millennials, you also have to get on the social agenda, have impact that matters.

• Ecosystem thinking can help meet the challenge of a changing world. (Deloitte)




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15 Private Resources for Public Threats: the social role of global enterprises

Katinka de Korte (Health and Public Service Lead Accenture Netherlands)

Savitri Groag (Corporate Social Responsibility Manager Accenture)


• Government and Defence as an online platform;

• Connecting security demands with security supplies (medication, education, training);

• Civilians in armed conflict are also customers or consumers of online platform base;

• Transformation & Transition Platform (T&T Platform). Delivering collective impacts through platform

businesses: connecting different groups of people with each other;

• The social role/responsibility of a global enterprise.


• A new dimension to defence: shifting basic defence services in post-conflict areas online.

• Where can the military be useful for the everyday challenges faced by civilians?

• The necessity of an exit strategy for the online defence platform.

• The civilian part of the ecosystem is horizontally structured, while the military has a hierarchical structure.

This mismatch creates friction when cooperating.

• How can stakeholders add value with activities in which they excel?

• Conceptualizing new services conducted by the Ministry of Defence that address the needs of citizens in

conflict areas from an ecosystem perspective.


• Via the T&T Platform, the Ministry of Defence can provide:

- tutorial and educational videos, language courses and instructions for civilian populations in conflict areas

- access to NGOs for civilians

• The defence community has a pioneering role to play in setting up infrastructure in conflict and post-conflict

areas, which provides vital services to the local population. The defence community can play a broker role in

selling such infrastructures (e.g. telecom or energy) to private parties. This creates a positive sum game for

each stakeholder and allows local actors to leverage particular educational, commercial and leadership talents.


• The need for an exit strategy before engaging in combat applies equally to the online domain. Thus, a

transition from the T&T Platform to a civilian alternative must be set up as soon as possible.

• In order to counter comprehensive or hybrid threats, a comprehensive response including an online

platform must be established.

• Concrete and viable solutions to change lives can come from unexpected sources, such as a small group of

security professionals with varying backgrounds and perspectives.

• Cross-sectoral collaborations between the military, private corporations and NGOs, as each of these

entities have specific and temporarily unused resources at their disposal. For example, the military can

employ empty cargo aircraft to transport goods from conflict areas to private retailers in a safe country

to help develop the economy in the (post) conflict area.

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• Private corporations and NGOs can make a contribution to the sustainment of security in post-conflict

areas by providing essential services, even though they are not peacekeepers themselves.


• Our current economy is already heavily platform based and this will only increase (see Uber, AirBnB,

Amazon, etc.) In order to retain relevance, the military must follow the example being set..

• Beyond boots on the ground, an online military presence for providing basic services to civilians will

enhance its legitimacy.

• Civilians are not only victims in armed conflict, but can also provide vital services to local population. The

military can unlock this potential through the T&T platform.

• Embracing partnerships with other organizations and local communities is paramount to not only establish

peace, but also maintain it.

• There is an inherent tension between the role of the defence community as an organization that enforces

peace and as an organization that fosters it by enabling local communities.

• Before accepting a mission in a specific (post) conflict area, the military needs to think clearly about the

boundaries of the commercial / development activities it will employ in that area. In doing so, the military

prevents conflicts of interest with its private partners, or the risks of overstretching its organizational

capacities.

Quotes

• Civilians in a war zone are not only victims, but can also be assets and untapped resources. (Nina Jongerijs,

War Child)

• Look at us, we are innovating: the ecosystem is learning. (Colonel Oscar van Lent)

• There is no I in ecosystems. (Colonel Oscar van Lent)

• People want to live in a world that is as good as possible. We want to create a better world. (Katinka de Korte)




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16 Rumble in the Urban Jungle: smart and secure cities

Kim den Boer (Senior Manager, PwC Consulting)

Leo Freriks (Government Affairs Manager, Siemens)

Agnese Macaluso (Researcher, The Hague Institute for Global Justice)

Juma Assiago (Coordinator Safer Cities Programme, UN Habitat)

Murty Nyaypati (Executive Director and Leader Smart Cities PwC India)

Elaine Trimble (Director, Urban Infrastructure Siemens)


• City development takes place in different phases and multiple dimensions.

• It is not only about smart, but also about safe and resilient cities.

• Multiple actors and stakeholders with multiple possibilities for interventions play a role in city

development.


• There is no ‘standard’ framework for city development, the situation and context of the city is important.

• Actors have different roles and responsibilities in different phases.

• Non-military actors are important for safety and security in the city.

• Cities are organized in silos, both in city government and in between different actors.


• A multiple-stakeholder approach to managing the (smart/resilient) city. With this approach all the

different needs of different actors (government, super-empowered individuals, NGOs, army, police, NSAs,

municipality, citizens [tourists, students, refugees etc.]) can be taken into account, and stakeholders can

share their ideas on how to make the city more resilient to future changes.

• Use communities as pivotal pillar for a holistic safety approach, as they know what is happening on the

‘ground’/in the neighbourhoods. They can indicate what makes them feel safe/unsafe and what is needed

to change this. Provided by specialized companies.

• Technologies can help speed up city development, provided that the inherent vulnerabilities, such as cyber

security, are taken into account.


• There is no ‘silver bullet’, no single solution to city development. The specific situation and context of the

city has to be taken into account.

• The preconditions for a safe smart city: people, healthy institutions, law enforcement, improving social

cohesion, risk reduction for natural disasters.

• Regardless of the development phase of a city, communication with citizens is an important key to success.


• Developing cities can leapfrog technology to go through their own development phases. The advantage of

non-existing infrastructure is the opportunity to move to the next possible solution.

• Break through the silos within city government to facilitate interconnectedness, so that cities can become

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more resilient to future challenges and to discover the opportunities that are possible to make cities more

safe. An integrated approach is important for efficiency, ensuring that the individual actions of silos do not

overlap unnecessarily.

• Involve and empower the civil society to develop cities and make them safe and secure.

Quotes

• Citizens are the drivers of city development. (Juma Assiago)

• Charles Dickens portrayed the 18th century as a tale of 2 cities; the 21st century, though, will be a tale of

smart cities. (Murty Nyaypati)

• If something breaks, you should not fix it by replacing it, but you should redesign it piece by piece. (Elaine

Trimble)




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17 The End of Leadership: making leaders less necessary


• Power shift from leaders to their followers.

• Leaders initiate and envision. Followers decide by themselves whether to follow or not.

• Good leaders empower followers by giving them ownership.

• Changing skillsets that make good leaders.

• Necessity of leadership.

• Leadership versus hierarchy.

• The rebellion of followers against the given leaders of society.

• Leadership is increasingly challenged by the people it intends to lead, who have gained more power

through (e.g. social) media.

• Shifting balance of leadership from hard power to soft power.


• What kind of leader does an ecosystem need?

• Too much micro-management impedes the ability of followers to function optimally.

• To navigate the tension between pursuing an ideal vision or efficient problem solving.

• There is a gap between the expectations of leadership and those of young soldiers at the MoD.

• The level of responsibility leaders should take. Micromanagement is bad, but the ‘Poldermodel’ may

lead to people not taking responsibility. For example: the Netherlands has lost over €120 billion in failed

projects. No one can be ‘pinpointed’ as accountable.

• The question arises whether leadership is becoming less important and necessary.

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• There are different cultural and institutional views on leadership.

• It is challenging for leaders to form narratives that are able to attract followers in order to achieve their

ideals and make the followers believe in them as well.

• Little research is done on what kind of leadership fits best in a comprehensive approach on the ground

during a military mission.

• There is always a relationship of reciprocity between leader and followers.


• Leader fulfils role of mediator.

• To devolve responsibilities to followers.

• Train leaders in diverse skill sets. They should learn how to adapt to different situations.

• Awareness that leadership is not ending, merely changing.


• Leaders should be trustworthy and credible. They should ‘walk the talk’.

• Leadership is contingent. Best characteristics depend on the leadership style or context.

• The question of ‘less leadership’ might be of specific importance in the Netherlands. Anti-authority

tendencies and striving for consensus are typically Dutch attitudes.

• The official hierarchy is only one side of leadership (responsibility). To be an effective leader, awareness of

a social system/ecosystem is also important.

• There is a difference in leadership during military missions, where the leader is more responsible and ‘in

charge’. Outside of missions, a different leadership style is needed.


• Leaders should engage with society, stakeholders and even enemies to seek and fulfil common goals.

• A leader should trust his or her followers to carry out the assigned tasks correctly (no micro-management).

• Leadership will not cease to exist, it is apparent that the role of a leader changes in relation to society.

• The Ministry of Defence develops and pursues different leadership styles for different contexts, more

specifically, one for the (internal) military context and one for (external) social contexts.

• You can be a strong leader without being a micromanager.

• Trust in the ability of your followers is key.

• Leaders need to connect with psychologists and anthropologists to adapt an appropriate leadership style

in a certain international context.

• Implement a Development Operations Approach to missions, in which all stakeholders are continuously

involved on the ground. Additionally, an analysis should be made regarding which competences are

required for leadership and which for the rest of the team. A continuous cycle of evaluation in the mission

is needed, so that the leader can more easily adapt to the needs of the situation and stakeholders.

• The Dutch military is still in the awareness phase of changing types of leadership. The next step is

to further the understanding of the factors that change leadership and of the positive and negative

consequences thereof. Only then can concrete action be taken.

Quotes

• In ecosystems, there is no hierarchy. Still someone has to lead. (Major General Martin Wijnen)

• It takes a country to win a war. It takes a good team to become a good leader. (Brigadier General Hans

Damen)

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• The understanding of leadership is culturally embedded. It is also situationally defined: it depends on the

job. (Oscar van Drie, MA student Ethics)

• Everyone has a boss, it is important to learn how to follow before you can lead. (Marian van de Venn,

Ministry of Defence)

• Simply receiving and obeying orders is not leadership.

• There is a great need for leadership based on values, emotion, charisma and vision.

• In the end, we don’t have better leaders than 40 years ago.

• Our leadership attribution leads us to mistakenly assume that good outcomes depend on good leaders;

that good leaders are good people; and that good people can be trained and educated to be good leaders.

(Kellerman)

• Leaders are best when they are barely visible. (Lao Tzu)




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18 The Natural Resources & Security Nexus: how integrated ‘big data’ can help to anticipate and prevent geopolitical interstate conflict

Major General Munir Muniruzzaman (retired) (GMACCC Chairman and former Military Advisor to the

President of Bangladesh)

Najib Saab (Secretary General Arab Forum for Environment & Development)

Tim Sweijs (Senior Strategist. HCSS)

Kitty van der Heijden (Director, WRI Europe)

Jamie Shea (Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, NATO Headquarters)

Charles Iceland (Aqueduct Director World Resources Institute)

Alexander Verbeek (Associate Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm International Water Institute)


• Water scarcity and possibility of future water wars, with a particular focus on South Asia and the MENA region.

• Climate refugees.

• Role of the military and Big Data in countering natural resource- and climate change-related risks and

conflicts.


• Poor water resource management.

• Short-term focus of politics.

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• Insufficient inter-institutional and international collaboration.

• A lack of common fora, databases and data exchange.


• The government can engage the military in environmental crisis situations and give them a clear mission in this

area. They can prepare themselves for future crisis situations caused by climate change, such as migration.

• Fuse different international databases that map the effects of climate change (water levels, drought, rising

temperatures) with databases on socio-economic indicators (level of income, professions, property rights)

to pick up indicators and fragile settings that could spark conflict at an early stage.


• The military is one of the most efficient and best performing actors in almost every country, but needs to

be given a political mandate.

• Netherlands is the driver and performs well in international comparisons by bringing together different

actors based around the resource and security nexus.

• In terms of water management, Israel is the leading international example to follow.


• Resource Watch (data tool of WRI) will show new insights based on socio-economic indicators and will be

cross-referenced with resource indicators.

• To be better prepared for imminent security threats on all levels and in an environment with fast-changing

conditions (e.g. water security), better exchange of knowledge on the state of natural resources and the

effects of climate change between diplomats, businesses, NGOs, think tanks and academics should be

fostered.

• The following 3 tasks should have the focus of the armed forces with regards to resource challenges:

- Include natural resource management in security sector reform policies. This means that natural

resource management is always taken as a factor which should be understood and investigated when

formulating policies with regards to security. Furthermore within its own institution, the defence sector

can investigate its footprint and “green” its activities.

- Collect and analyse information by combining different databases and indicators and promoting integration

between ‘natural resources’ tools such as WRI’s Resource Watch with security and defence data.

- Deploy forces to protect global common goods: e.g. deploy the navy in the Arctic, or ground troops in

MENA and Africa.

Quotes

• There is no security without water security. (Kitty van der Heijden)

• Ultimately, countries will fail if we do not invest in people-centred development. (Najib Saab)

• The real issue is getting things onto the political agenda. (Jamie Shea)

• The challenges of climate change are in conflict with the Westphalian system of political governance that

we have put into place. (Munir Muniruzzaman)

• The military is the key actor in providing stability when climate change leads to increasing instability.

(Munir Muniruzzaman)

• If we ever fight a conflict in the future, it will be about water. (Munir Muniruzzaman)




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19 The Road to Durable Peace: transitioning from military interventions to long-term counter-terrorism policy

Edwin Bakker (Director, Institute of Security and Global Affairs)

Sergei Boeke (Research fellow, International Centre for Counter Terrorism)

Alastair Reed (Acting Director, International Centre for Counterterrorism)

Fulco van Deventer (Director, Human Security Collective)

Lieutenant General (retired) Mart de Kruif (former Commander RC South Afghanistan)

Gerard Lucius (Diplomat, former Development Aid Advisor Afghanistan)

Martijn Kitzen (Netherlands Defence College)

Isabelle Duyvesteijn (Professor, International Studies/Global History at Institute of History, Leiden University)


• The early recognition of threats.

• Intervention.

• Different approaches to a conflict.


• The military, foreign affairs, NGOs and immigration authorities all have different objectives, as do the

receiving host nations, who have a government, civil society and citizens with different objectives. This

means that it is very difficult to decide on a course of action.

• Use of language is problematic, since concepts such as the ‘future’ are difficult to put forward and explain

to consumers.

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• In the entry phase of military intervention, local powerbrokers should be included in restructuring the

nation.

• Bringing people together is essential in order to localize threats early on. They should be experts from

different backgrounds, such as academics and governmental workers.


• Unintended consequences should be taken into account when planning a mission. For example, the

unintended consequence of the Libyan intervention is that the turmoil spread to neighbours and brought

more chaos to the region.


• The Dutch government and military should work together with local powerbrokers in order to stabilize

the region, especially in the first phase of an operation. Without this cooperation on a local level, the newly

implemented government will not be seen as legitimate by the local population. Research shows that a

bottom-up approach is essential for the successful reconstruction of a conflict zone.

• Technological means are necessary to win wars and to keep moving forward, but the human aspect should

not be marginalized in war and conflict. Human instinct and intellect remain essential and diversity is

needed to be successful.

• There should be more interdepartmental planning to enhance and foster unity of effort.

Quotes

• Do not go to war if you aren’t willing to see it through. (Mart de Kruif)

• War is a clash of wills. (Mart de Kruif)

• We should be more modest in our ambitions. (Isabelle Duyvesteyn)




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20 Under Pressure: hybrid crisis management and the conjuncture of the cyber and physical domains

Arjen Boin (Professor Public Institutions and Governance at the Department of Political Science, Leiden University)

Patricia Zorko (Deputy National Coordinator Security and Counterterrorism)

What were the key themes/trends discussed in the session?

• Crisis management.

• Cyber Security.

• How to keep the focus on cooperation when there is limited information.

• Necessity of establishing whether a cyber attack is truly an attack, theft or infiltration.


• We need to start thinking about the effects of cyber attacks. What can we do now? Society needs to

be resilient. Different partners within society need to come up with countermeasures and emergency/

contingency plans so as to minimize the detrimental effects of these attacks.

• Processes may take a long time in democracies, but quick decision-making is essential during cyber

attacks.

• We are not aware of how disruptive a cyber attack will be. We need to increase awareness that its effects

may be far-reaching and complex.

• These kind of threats are increasingly international in nature and there is therefore a strong need for

international cooperation.

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• Invest in preparatory cooperation that can be leveraged in case of an attack.

• Focus on more resilience of the cyber aspects of critical infrastructures.


• In order to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance resilience in case of cyber attacks, collaboration with (inter)

national public and private actors is key. Only then can the different capabilities, resources and skills of

different actors be leveraged.


• The Ministry of Security and Justice should invest in preparatory cyber security collaboration with

international actors (public and private) that can be leveraged in the case of a cyber attack. This allows

for a common strategic response that is more flexible and ultimately more effective, also in terms of

preventing escalation of the disruption.

• Reduce the interdependency of critical infrastructures (telecom, transport, electricity) to reduce the

disruptive potential of a single attack on these systems. In decentralized energy systems, parts of the

system will remain operational, thereby limiting the effects of a disruptive cyber attack. This should be

achieved through a collaborative effort by public and private actors.

Quotes

• It is not a question of if, but when we are attacked. It made it clear to us that we are interdependent. The

effects of an attack will be felt by all. (Colonel Holger Bonnen)

• In our digital domain, information theft, sabotage and disinformation are being used to undermine our

society and state. (Patricia Zorko)




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21 When warfare changes, so must Defence: exploring hybrid threats and stratcom

Brett Boudreau (Author of ‘We have met the enemy and the enemy is us’)

Leva Berzina (Senior Researcher, National Defence Academy, Latvia)

Keir Giles (Director, Conflict Studies Research Centre)

Christopher Paul (Senior Social Scientist, RAND USA)

Steve Tatham (Director, Defence Division, The SCL Group)

Adrien Trocmé (Regional Manager Africa Citizen’s Voice/Love Matters)

What where the key themes/trends discussed in the session?

• Definitions of hybrid warfare and strategic communication.

• A realistic assessment of the ‘threat’ posed by irregular warfare from multiple viewpoints and a countering

of the idea that Russian irregular warfare is intrinsically successful.

• The importance of defence for civilian network infrastructure’.

• Public awareness for fake news attacks and the difficulty of countering it without appearing to be

propagandist.

• An assessment of NATO’s future StratCom capability measured against its past performance in

Afghanistan.

• Post-truth environment.

• The need for Target Audience Analysis (TAA).

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• The solution to fake news is not just factual news; people either cannot differentiate or do not wish to.

• NATO is poorly equipped (people and structures) for the challenges of future irregular warfare.

• The ‘West’ continually fails to understand audiences in meaningful ways.

• Information is always seen as subservient to hard kinetic power; this is the opposite of what our

adversaries do.


• The power of information should never be underestimated; nor its increasing importance in the future.

• While fact checking and good narratives remain important, a strong strategy against fake news and a key

defence should be to understand its effect on groups, using TAA.

• We should take the initiative rather than simply reacting.

• Do not underestimate the power of being first (in both positive and negative contexts).


• The West should step away from the idea that war and peace are binary phenomena. This is the only way

to counter actors such as Russia, which considers war and peace as part of a spectrum in which different

forms of warfare can be activated, without necessarily following up with more violent acts.

• Fundamentally reassess our entire communications systems and processes - NATO-wide - including

people, structures, doctrine and our capability of ‘understanding’. Currently, we are not well placed to

meet the challenges of the future.

• Understand the role of science in evidence-based strategy making; how we can use it and when it is being

used against us.

Quotes

• The term ‘hybrid warfare’ is simply new packaging of old goods. (Steve Tatham)

• People already have established opinions, so they only pick up want they want to hear. (Leva Berzina)

• Democracies are very bad at countering fake news, because you can’t do anything to direct the media.

(Keir Giles)

• Disinformation is different to misinformation. (Brett Boudreau)

• Retraction and refutation of propaganda do not work. (Christopher Paul)




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“It was an absolute honour and privilege to deliver my message, and I am glad to know it resonated with so many people. One delegate from the Canadian armed forces even told me that he cried and that the speech reminded him of the purpose of what he does. That really meant a lot to me and touched me beyond words.” Ana Saldarriaga, youth advocate and former president of AIESEC

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Appendix 1

The Defence Ecosystem, how to read the casual loop diagram

The arrowed diagrams in this report are ‘causal loop diagrams’. A causal loop diagram is used in the field

of System Dynamics 1 to map (perceived) causal effects and feedback loops underlying complex issues or

systems. At the FFC2017, all workshops were summarized by means of causal loop diagrams. Below is a brief

outline of the diagrammatic conventions underlying these diagrams, since knowledge of these conventions is

required in order to read them properly and understand their meaning.

Causal loop diagrams consist of variables, direct causal relations between these variables (arrows with polari-

ties), and – in the case of circular causal effects – feedback loops.

The polarity of each of the causal relations is displayed in these diagrams by means of link polarities (+ or -)

next to each of the arrows:

• A link from variable A to variable B is positive (+) if an increase in variable A causes B to rise above what it

would have been without the increase in A, or if a decrease in A causes B to fall below what it would have

been without the decrease in A.

• A link from variable A to variable B is negative (-) if an increase in A causes B to fall below the value it

would have had without the increase in A, or if a decrease in A causes B to rise above what it would have

been otherwise.

A feedback loop is an ensemble of 2 or more causal relations between variables that are connected such that

if one follows the causality starting at any variable, one eventually returns to this variable. In others words:

elements in a feedback loop are (at least partly) caused by their own past behaviour. Feedback loops give rise

to nonlinear behaviour, even if all constitutive causal relations are linear.

Balancing and reinforcing loops

The loop polarity of a feedback loop is determined by its net effect:

• A feedback loop is called a balancing loop (B in the diagram) if an initial increase in a variable causes a

further decrease in that same variable, or if a decrease in a variable causes a subsequent increase in that

variable.

In isolation, balancing feedback loops mostly generate balancing or goal-seeking behaviour. Negative feed-

back effects are sources of stability as well as resistance to change. Negative feedback may also cause

undesirable behaviour (e.g., oscillatory behaviour due to a negative feedback loop with a delay).

• A feedback loop is called a reinforcing loop (R in the diagram) if an initial increase in a variable leads to an

additional future increase in that same variable, or if a decrease in a variable leads (over time and all else

remaining the same) to an additional decrease in that variable.

In isolation, reinforcing feedback loops mostly generate reinforcing behaviour (i.e., exponential growth or

exponential collapse) which could be extremely beneficial or detrimental.

Computers solve complex models

Feedback loops hardly ever exist in isolation: they are mostly linked to other feedback loops, and their

1 System Dynamics is a modelling and simulation approach to model complex issues in terms of the underlying feedback effects and

accumulation effects, simulate the possible dynamics over time, and analyse the resulting scenarios in order to provide robust policy advice.

90

relative dominance could change over time. Complex system behaviours often arise due to dominance shifts

between feedback loops over time. Since it is hard – in many cases impossible – to mentally simulate complex

models with more than a few feedback loops, especially if there are shifts in loop dominance, computers are

used to numerically solve these models and generate the overall system dynamics.

Defence ecosystem:

The ‘Defence Ecosystem’ diagram provides a feedback loop perspective on defence within its larger societal

(eco)system. This high-level perspective/diagram was constructed during the conference by Erik Pruyt (TU

Delft) and Jonathan Holslag (VUB), and slightly adapted afterwards. It was informed by plenary presentations

and workshops, as well as by the group model built during the preparatory workshop of the workshop chairs

facilitated by Henk Akkermans (Tilburg University). Most of the feedback loops in this perspective are

reinforcing loops. In the absence of balancing feedback effects, these reinforcing societal feedback effects

either result in a continuously improving system (in case of good governance, rule of law, efficient institutions

and critical media) or result in a continuously deteriorating system (in case of corrupt failing states).

The diagrams can be found on the website.

91

Actemium

Together with its partner Fieldbit,

Actemium offers an out-of-the-

box solution in the form of smart

glasses. Engineers and operators

are supported in their work by the

use of Augmented Reality, which

increases the first-time fix rate.

Bavak Security Group

The Bavak Security Group will

demonstrate a Remotely-

Operated Military Access Point

(ROMAP) to detect in a fast,

secure and reliable way body-

worn IEDs and/or persons

mentioned in an automated

Biometric Identification System

(ABIS) before persons/local

workers enter the base.

CapGemini

Capgemini is one of the world’s

biggest providers of consulting-,

technology- outsourcing- and

local professional services

Chef Martin

Chef Martin is the specialised

brand of Marfo Food Group, a

company with over 40 years’

experience in producing meals

and meal components.

Clingendael

Clingendael is a Dutch think tank

and diplomatic academy which

aims to enhance insight into

international relations

Daedalissimo

By using the Daedalissimo

Hercules Building System, it is

possible to build shelters with

an inflatable modular building

system. This system meets the

requirements for building a

military base that can adapt

to different types of conditions.

De Lek/Habo Group

The Lek/Habo groep is a group

of companies that focuses on

the generation, transport and

innovative use of energy.

ESEP

At the Future Force Conference,

ESEP will present a mobile water-

tight floor for the refuelling and

cleaning activities of defence

vehicles.

Gispen

Gispen believes in a circular

economy. For example, Gispen has

sofas in supply that are made for

95% of recycled materials.

The Hague centre for Strategic

Studies (HCSS)

Independent think tank.

HDES

HDES develops applications for

an advanced energy storage

technology.

Hi-Con

Owing to the high strength of the

material, sheets can be made 3 to

5 times as thin as sheets of normal

concrete. The material is

extremely durable. Ultra high-

performance concrete is very

suitable for military applications.

HTC

HTC Parking & Security is a

European market leader in the

area of speedgates. The Smart

Gate is a movable access unit (20’

container). The concept provides

security against unauthorised entry.

Hydrowashr

Hydrowashr will demonstrate the

integration of washing, drying and

disinfecting your hands in one

device. Sensors detect the hands

and, after a mere 15 seconds, your

hands are clean, dry, warm and soft.

INFRA2base

Nedshield has developed the

world’s first Technology Integration

Platform to improve the design,

capabilities and operational

efficiency of military & HADR bases

throughout the infrastructure

life-cycle. The platform includes the

Virtual Base multi-dimensional

design tool (VB), the Defence

Industry Asset Library (DialDB) and

the Deployable Facility Control

Center (DFCC).

Kitepower

Kitepower systems use high-

performance kites for cost-

competitive electricity generation.

Unlike conventional wind turbines,

the Kitepower system does not

require resource intensive towers

or deep foundations and is thus

highly mobile and easy to deploy.

Royal Netherlands Navy

The Royal Netherlands Navy’s VR

Demonstrator, developed in

Appendix 2

Partners in support of the Future Force Conference

92

collaboration with Damen-Schelde

Naval Shipbuilding and Ordina, gives

a digitised 3D representation of a

ship environment in virtual reality.

Logo Shaded Dome Technologies

The Shaded Dome™ provides a

smart, cool and adaptable facility

and was specifically designed to

protect users against demanding

climatological conditions (such

as sandstorms and heat).

Nedshield

Nedshield is Swiss-based solution

integrator and technology provider

active in the Defence and Humani-

tarian Aid & Disaster Relief (HADR)

sectors.

Rainmaker Worldwide and Bredenoord

Rainmaker Worldwide and

Bredenoord will demonstrate a

membrane distillation system in

operation as well as provide

promotional material (flyers,

brochures, infographics) for our

joint membrane distillation system.

Respond

Respond will present its software

concepts for information-driven

operations at the Future Force

Conference.

Royal HaskoningDHV

Royal HaskoningDHV is an indepen-

dent international engineering and

project management consultancy

which has conducted projects that

contribute to improving living

circumstances all around the world

for 135 years.

SunCycle

SunCycle harvests solar power using

conventional (automotive headlight)

moulding technologies. The sun is

tracked and sunlight is concentrated

over 500 times. Power and heat are

produced for on/off grid use. The

small foot-print is beneficial in urban

areas, where space is limited and the

need for power and heat is high

during daytime. In rural areas, we are

an alternative to fossil fuels.

Solartechno

Solartechno Europe BV is a specialist

in the independent generation and

storage of renewable, or “green”,

energy on site.

Netherlands Armed Forces Support

Command

Support Command provides

support to the entire Netherlands

armed forces. The organization

lends support in the areas of

catering, healthcare, building

management, exercise areas and

personnel services.

TNO

The Netherlands Organisation for

Applied Scientific Research (TNO) is

a renowned research institute which

focuses on the practical application of

scientific knowledge. The institute is

commissioned by government orga-

nisations and commercial companies

and is the largest research institute

in the Netherlands. TNO regularly

works in collaboration with the

Ministry of Defence.

Trefecta

Trefecta claims to have invented a

new category of vehicles (bicycles).

Through advanced engineering and

intelligent design, the company aims

to achieve unsurpassed excellence.

UpfallShower

Upfall Shower is the most power-

ful and sustainable shower system in

the world. This Dutch innovation

saves up to 90% on water, energy,

waste water and CO2.

TAPRA VOF

TAPRA VOF is a consultancy

agency that has extensive expertise

and experience in the fields of

water and waste water

management, civil engineering,

energy and process management.

VDL Defence Technologies

VDL Defence Technologies will

exhibit a new panel for building new

walls rapidly and flexibly

Waka Waka

WakaWaka manfactures solar-

powered products. These products

are not only essential in developing

countries, but also extremely handy

for holidays or road travel.

NLR

The Netherlands Aerospace Centre

(NLR) supports the aerospace sector

(including the Ministry of Defence)

by developing and applying

advanced technologies for

innovative products and by creating

new research facilities. The NLR

lends support to Defence in, among

other things, the acquisition of new

weapon systems and the subsequent

modification of those systems.

IC3D Media

IC3D Media is a software and

interactive design studio. The

company’s goal is to better the way

people train, learn, play, experience

and innovate by utilizing solutions

based on gaming principles. To that

end, the company creates

interactive applications, web

platforms, serious games and VR

and AR experiences.

93

“ To me it is clear. We need your input. Your technologies. Your collaborative potential. But it all starts with the right mind-set. Could it be that the best solutions come when our hearts are focused on doing right?” General Middendorp, Netherlands Chief of Defence

94

“If civilization is to survive, we must cultivate the science of human relationships, the ability of all peoples, of all kinds, to live together and work together in the same world, at peace.”Franklin D. Roosevelt (draft speech 1945)

Directorate of Communications and Media Centre, Ministry of Defence.

In cooperation with The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.

Translation Service, Defence Language Centre

www.ffc2017.org

http://www.ffc2017.org

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