final report - buckeyevalley.k12.oh.us

FINAL REPORT

Buckeye Valley Local School District

Enrollment Projection Report March 10, 2017

REPORT Buckeye Valley Local School District

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March 10, 2017

INTRODUCTION

FutureThink was contracted to develop enrollment projections for the Buckeye Valley Local School District.

This report contains ten-year enrollment projections, which were developed for the Buckeye Valley Local School District by analyzing the following data:

Live birth data Historical enrollment Community school enrollment Open enrollment Community demographics Housing information

The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future and represent the most likely direction of the District.


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NATIONAL & OHIO TRENDS IN ENROLLMENT

Tracing the landscape of the country’s public school enrollment back over the past 70+ years reveals demographic, economic, and social changes. The United States as a whole continues to undergo major shifts in public student enrollment. The baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. An “echo” baby boom occurred in the 1980s, which then was followed by the echo baby bust from 1990 to 2000. There was a slight uptick from 2000 to 2010. Since 2011, the total number of births has been relatively flat.

With the live birth rate, there was an increase for the first time in several years in 1998. Other increases occurred in 2000, 2006, and 2007. Since 2007, the birth rate has resumed a descending pattern, reaching an all-time low in 2013. In 2014, there was a slight uptick.

Ohio has experienced a similar trend in live births as seen around the country. Live birth counts increased in 2000. A descending pattern resumed in 2001 with a slight stabilization from 2002 to 2005. Births increased slightly again in 2006 and 2007 but then declined to an all-time low of 138,024 in 2011. In 2012, 2013, and 2014, there were slight increases, but preliminary counts for 2015 show another decrease.


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In addition, to births dropping in Ohio, the state is also aging. The median age in 2015 was 39.6 years of age while the national median age is 37.8 years. In 2010, the median age in Ohio was 38.3 years. In 2012-13, approximately 49.8 million students were enrolled in grades Pre-K-12 in the United States. From 2000-01 to 2012-13, enrollment increased by 2.6 million students. Overall, enrollment is projected to increase by approximately 6 percent by the 2024-25 school year. The figure below illustrates the projected change in Pre-K-12 public school enrollment from the 2012-13 to the 2024-25 school year. Growth is expected to continue primarily in the southeast and west. Ohio is projected to experience a decrease of less than 5 percent.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data CCD),"State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2012-13; and Public State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model: 1980–2024. See Digest of Education Statistics 2014, table 203.20.

http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cga.asp#info


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In Ohio, enrollment has declined steadily for both public and non-public school enrollment. From 2006-07 to 2015-16, public school enrollment declined by over 140,000 students or approximately 7.5 percent statewide.

Year October Headcount*

2006-07 1,872,435

2007-08 1,862,582

2008-09 1,852,542

2009-10 1,844,447

2010-11 1,832,832

2011-12 1,820,312

2012-13 1,811,532

2013-14 1,806,267

2014-15 1,767,716

2015-16 1,751,304

Ohio Public School Enrollment

2006-07 - 2015-16

Source: Ohio Department of Education

*includes grades K-12 and ungraded


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From 2004-05 to 2014-15, private school enrollment has declined by approximately 40,000 students or 19 percent. Enrollment totals for 2015-16 were not yet available.

Year October ADM*

2004-05 213,312

2005-06 207,054

2006-07 204,402

2007-08 200,598

2008-09 195,343

2009-10 187,994

2010-11 181,420

2011-12 178,702

2012-13 176,166

2013-14 173,966

2014-15 173,030

Ohio Chartered Non-Public School Enrollment

2004-05 - 2014-15


*includes grades K-12


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Out of 610 school districts, only 94 gained enrollment from the 2006-07 to the 2014-15 school year. Approximately 84% of school districts lost enrollment over the time period. Approximately 34% of these districts lost less than 10 percent. Districts with the biggest loss of students were urban school districts. For those districts that gained enrollment, 54% increased by less than 5 percent. Of the 10 districts with the greatest increase in students, eight are located in Central Ohio, and most are considered suburban districts.

Looking at the change from the 2010-11 school year, 72 districts (12%) increased in enrollment, and 538 decreased (88%). Of the districts that lost enrollment, 65% declined less than 10 percent. Districts with the biggest losses were still primarily the urban school districts. For those districts that gained since 2010-11, 85% increased by less than 10 percent. Of the 10 districts with the greatest increase in students, 8 are located in Central Ohio, and most are considered suburban districts. Analyzing enrollment from a county perspective, only 3 of the 88 counties in Ohio gained enrollment from 2006-07 and 2014-15. Harrison County had the highest percentage loss of students at 25.77 percent. Fifty-two percent of the counties (46) experienced a decline of greater than 10 percent. The map on the following page illustrates the gain/loss for each county from 2006-07 to 2014-15.

County Percentage Gain

Delaware 36.57%

Warren 4.95%

Fairfield 0.75%


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ACTUAL VS. PROJECTED ENROLLMENT COMPARISON

Based on the May 2014 Enrollment Projection Report, the difference between the actual and projected enrollment for the 2016-17 school year is 145 students or approximately 6 percent. Pre-K accounts for the greatest difference with 54 students. Additionally, grades 5, 6, 8, 10 and 12 all had unexpected increases. The following table illustrates the difference by grade.

Grade

2016-17

Actual 2016-17 EP Difference Percentage

Pre-K 78 24 54 69.23%

K 127 137 -10 -7.87%

1 156 151 5 3.21%

2 151 157 -6 -3.97%

3 148 150 -2 -1.35%

4 159 157 2 1.26%

5 169 153 16 9.47%

6 175 153 22 12.57%

7 184 184 0 0.00%

8 207 188 19 9.18%

9 213 215 -2 -0.94%

10 191 173 18 9.42%

11 209 201 8 3.83%

12 194 174 20 10.31%

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,361 2,217 144 6.10%

Ungraded 2 1 1 50.00%

Grand Total 2,363 2,218 145 6.14%


Actual vs. Projected Enrollment

Source: Buckeye Valley Local School District, FutureThink


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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT

Over the past ten years, student enrollment in the Buckeye Valley Local School District has decreased by 15 students or less than 1 percent. Total enrollment for the 2016-17 school year is 2,363 students. The following tables and graph illustrate the District’s enrollment history from 2007-08 to 2016-17.

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Pre-K 27 37 32 33 26 22 24 43 50 78

K 185 186 178 154 152 135 137 139 149 127

1 159 195 200 187 150 145 152 151 140 156

2 193 166 198 193 177 150 150 162 144 151

3 166 200 171 204 188 178 148 161 155 148

4 189 163 200 174 209 186 177 165 160 159

5 171 187 165 197 186 208 182 169 170 169

6 185 183 180 177 203 183 200 173 177 175

7 175 190 177 180 179 201 168 179 200 184

8 191 181 191 178 182 176 198 206 208 207

9 198 200 180 203 186 184 188 211 183 213

10 168 203 200 179 193 172 181 193 212 191

11 191 168 197 187 168 190 171 200 200 209

12 177 192 171 177 173 167 167 170 175 194

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,375 2,451 2,440 2,423 2,372 2,297 2,243 2,322 2,323 2,361

Ungraded 3 2 2 1 0 2 0 2 5 2

Grand Total 2,378 2,453 2,442 2,424 2,372 2,299 2,243 2,324 2,328 2,363

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Pre-K - 4 919 947 979 945 902 816 788 821 798 819

5 - 8 722 741 713 732 750 768 748 727 755 735

9 - 12 734 763 748 746 720 713 707 774 770 807

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,375 2,451 2,440 2,423 2,372 2,297 2,243 2,322 2,323 2,361

Ungraded 3 2 2 1 0 2 0 2 5 2

Grand Total 2,378 2,453 2,442 2,424 2,372 2,299 2,243 2,324 2,328 2,363

Source: Buckeye Valley Local School District

Historical Enrollment by Grade Group


Historical Enrollment

Source: Buckeye Valley Local School District



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LIVE BIRTH DATA

Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments as it provides a helpful overall trend. The live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend kindergarten in the District five years later. The survival ratios for birth-to-kindergarten as well as grades 1-12 can be found later in this report. The Ohio Department of Health [ODH] data warehouse provides information about live birth events for Ohio residents. Information about events occurring outside of Ohio to Ohio residents is included. Information about events occurring inside Ohio to non-Ohio residents is not included. Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Powell, Delaware County but delivers her baby in Columbus, Franklin County, the birth is counted in Powell, Delaware County. The number of live births is recorded by: State County City/Town Census Tract Zip Code Address [not available to the public] Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group. Birth rates are provided for counties only and for 9 age groups from 10-14 years to 45+ years.

Ohio has experienced a similar trend in live births as seen around the country. Live birth counts increased in 2000. A descending pattern resumed in 2001 with a slight stabilization from 2002 to 2005. Births increased slightly again in 2006 and 2007 but then declined to an all-time low of 138,024 in 2011. In 2012, 2013, and 2014, there were slight increases, but preliminary counts for 2015 show another decrease.


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The following table and graph include the live birth counts for zip codes 43003, 43015, 43032, 43040, 43061, 43064, 43065, 43066, 43074, 43315, 43334, 43342, 43344, and 43356. However, upon analysis of the map on page 13, only zip codes 43003, 43015, 43032, 43061, 43066, 43074, and 43334 were used for projection purposes.

Year 43003 43015 43032 43040 43061 43064 43065 43066 43074 43315 43334 43342 43344 43356Total # of

Live Births

Total # of

Live Births

Used

2000 44 525 2 409 38 141 469 8 99 100 81 41 66 18 2,041 797

2001 35 594 0 415 47 132 456 15 112 92 86 30 85 9 2,108 889

2002 35 646 2 384 44 142 481 9 117 105 61 32 57 9 2,124 914

2003 34 694 2 448 44 150 542 11 153 93 71 36 56 10 2,344 1,009

2004 26 678 0 417 38 144 522 7 154 97 65 29 64 10 2,251 968

2005 40 622 2 441 41 154 525 10 151 76 81 30 68 11 2,252 947

2006 26 689 3 430 35 134 569 9 137 95 72 35 65 10 2,309 971

2007 39 729 3 463 30 162 477 12 149 92 63 42 63 12 2,336 1,025

2008 34 688 1 436 36 154 510 8 150 84 80 40 65 11 2,297 997

2009 34 651 2 391 37 156 438 7 129 79 77 48 71 9 2,129 937

2010 32 640 2 375 36 127 490 9 139 79 69 30 53 10 2,091 927

2011 31 631 0 395 31 126 435 14 123 85 63 25 66 13 2,038 893

2012 26 669 2 382 31 146 428 10 129 83 67 26 55 10 2,064 934

2013 34 680 1 385 30 137 441 14 138 87 62 40 56 11 2,116 959

2014 33 682 1 403 32 144 455 12 156 80 73 30 61 8 2,170 989

2015* 26 689 1 428 41 142 437 14 148 84 65 30 55 11 2,171 984


Live Birth Count by Zip Code

2000-2015

Source: Ohio Department of Health, Statistical Analysis Unit

*preliminary


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COMMUNITY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

In Ohio, community school enrollment has increased dramatically over the last decade. From 2005-06 to 2014-15, enrollment has increased by over 72% from 72,061 students in 305 community schools to 124,043 students in 381 community schools. From 2013-14 to 2014-15, there was a slight drop in enrollment and number of schools.

Grade 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Grand Total 72,064 76,932 82,643 88,536 93,623 99,878 108,239 117,473 129,505 124,043

includes ungraded students

Ohio

Community School Enrollment (Pre-K - 12)


Grade 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Grand Total 305 314 325 332 323 341 355 367 395 381


Ohio

Number of Community Schools


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Since 2007-08, the number of Buckeye Valley Local School District students attending community schools has increased from 79 to 100 students with some fluctuation. Enrollment of Buckeye Valley Local School District students attending community schools should be closely monitored as it may have a significant impact on District enrollment in the future.

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Pre-K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

K 1 3 4 3 1 4 2 1 3 3

1 8 2 3 1 3 1 2 2 2 1

2 2 4 4 2 0 2 3 6 2 2

3 5 2 7 4 1 2 2 3 3 5

4 1 4 4 7 3 3 3 3 3 8

5 6 1 6 2 4 5 0 5 3 5

6 5 6 8 13 5 7 7 2 5 4

7 10 5 13 7 12 5 7 8 5 9

8 5 10 8 7 4 6 6 6 6 10

9 10 8 19 15 6 8 9 6 7 9

10 12 7 9 21 13 11 9 9 11 6

11 3 2 11 12 20 18 16 12 19 13

12 11 7 5 12 9 17 8 14 16 23

Ungraded 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

Grand Total 79 61 101 106 81 89 74 77 85 100


Community School Enrollment

Source: Buckeye Valley Local School District; ODE EMIS


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OPEN ENROLLMENT

Since 2007-08, the number of Buckeye Valley Local School District students “open enrolling” into the District has increased from 80 to 99 students with some fluctuation. The number of students “open enrolling” out of the District has increased from 66 to 103 students with some fluctuation. Significant changes in the number of students “open enrolling” into or out of the District from year to year can impact enrollment projections and should be monitored.

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Pre-K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7

K 5 4 5 2 7 4 6 6 6 1

1 5 4 6 3 1 6 3 3 4 4

2 3 5 6 6 5 1 6 3 2 3

3 2 2 4 6 5 5 2 4 4 3

4 6 2 3 4 7 5 4 3 5 6

5 3 3 0 2 2 6 5 6 5 6

6 7 8 4 4 7 4 7 6 6 7

7 4 11 8 3 5 6 4 8 9 8

8 8 3 9 8 7 4 6 5 9 8

9 8 15 4 10 12 7 8 11 9 12

10 9 8 15 4 12 10 6 13 11 9

11 9 13 10 13 6 13 9 8 11 13

12 11 11 16 11 13 8 13 13 11 12

Ungraded 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grand Total 80 89 90 76 89 79 79 89 92 99


Open Enrollment - IN



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Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Pre-K 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

K 5 8 3 4 5 7 3 5 7 7

1 6 5 8 2 6 4 6 2 7 6

2 3 5 6 4 5 6 6 5 4 7

3 4 3 8 4 3 5 3 7 8 9

4 4 5 3 5 4 4 4 3 7 6

5 5 4 6 4 5 2 5 4 5 9

6 2 3 6 4 5 4 3 4 7 4

7 5 2 4 5 4 2 6 5 3 9

8 6 4 2 4 5 4 1 6 7 4

9 7 8 8 3 4 6 5 1 7 11

10 4 4 7 8 2 3 5 5 5 12

11 9 4 6 6 6 2 4 5 7 11

12 6 8 9 7 8 5 3 5 5 8

Ungraded 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grand Total 66 63 76 60 62 55 54 57 79 103


Open Enrollment - OUT



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DEMOGRAPHICS

The Buckeye Valley Local School District is comprised of Ashley Village, Delaware City, Ostrander, and Brown, Concord, Kingston, Marlboro, Oxford, Radnor, Scioto, Thompson, Troy, Peru, and Westfield townships in Delaware and Morrow counties. General demographic data is included in the following tables for the areas located completely or partially in the District.

Also included are block group estimates and projections provided by ESRI. ESRI uses a time series of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau that includes the latest estimates and inter-censual estimates adjusted for error of closure. The Census Bureau’s time series is consistent, but testing has revealed improved accuracy by using a variety of sources to track county population trends.

Delaware County Morrow County State of Ohio

Per Capita Income $41,357 $22,825 $26,046

Median Household Income $91,936 $51,444 $48,308

Persons Below Poverty 4.9% 13.4% 15.8%

General Demographic Information

Source: US Census, American Community Survey, 2014 5-Year Estimates

2000 Census 2010 CensusDelaware County 109,989 174,214

Ashley Village 1,216 1,330

Brown Township 1,297 1,416

Concord Township 4,507 9,294

Delaware City 25,243 34,753

Kingston Township 1,603 2,156

Marlboro Township 227 281

Ostrander 405 643

Oxford Township 854 987

Radnor Township 1,335 1,540

Scioto Township 2,527 2,993

Thompson Township 558 684

Troy Township 2,665 2,115

Morrow County 31,628 34,827

Peru Township 1,260 1,513

Westfield Township 1,100 1,177

Total Population

Source: ODOD Policy Research & Strategic Planning Office, August 2011


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ESRI also employs a time series of building permits and housing starts plus residential deliveries. Data sources are integrated and then analyzed by Census Block Groups. Sources of data include: Supplementary Surveys of the Census Bureau Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics BLS Occupational Employment Statistics InfoUSA U.S. Bureau of the Census’ Current Population Survey National Planning Association Data Service Below is a list of definitions as they appear on the U.S. Census Bureau website, to aid in interpretation of the following tables and maps. Household: A household includes all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence. Average family size: A measure obtained by dividing the number of members of families by the total number of families (or family householders). Family household (Family): A family includes a householder and one or more people living in the same household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption. All people who are related to the householder are regarded as members of his or her family. A family household may contain people not related to the householder, but those people are not included as part of the householder’s family in census tabulations. Thus, the number of family households is equal to the number of families, but family households may include more members than do families. A household can contain only one family for purposes of census tabulations. Not all households contain families since a household may comprise a group of unrelated people or one person living alone. Householder: The person, or one of the people, in whose name the home is owned, being bought, or rented. If there is no such person present, any household member 15 years old and over can serve as the householder for the purposes of the census. Two types of householders are distinguished: a family householder and a nonfamily householder. A family householder is a householder living with one or more people related to him or her by birth, marriage, or adoption. The householder and all people in the household related to him are family members. A nonfamily householder is a householder living alone or with nonrelatives only.


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The following tables illustrate the current estimates and 5-year population projections based on block groups that comprise the state and school district, indicating areas of current and projected growth. The tables have been developed to determine selected age group projections and projections for household income, family size, and total households. The total population in the State of Ohio is 11,685,477. This population is projected to increase by 139,791 people, or approximately 1% over a 5-year period. The 0-18 year-old population in the State currently totals 2,740,622. This population is projected to decrease by 30,593 children, or approximately 1 percent. The median age is projected to increase by approximately 2% from 39.7 to 40.4 years of age.

Ohio 2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016-21 Change 2016-21 (%)

Total Population 11,685,477 11,825,268 139,791 1.2%

Age 0-4 688,715 682,025 -6,690 -1.0%

Age 5-9 713,404 696,064 -17,340 -2.4%

Age 10-14 744,456 739,075 -5,381 -0.7%

Age 15-18 594,047 592,865 -1,182 -0.2%

Total Age 0-18 2,740,622 2,710,029 -30,593 -1.1%

Median Age 39.7 40.4 0.7 1.8%

Source: ESRI


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The total population in the District is 17,605. This population is projected to increase by 1,300 people, or approximately 7% over a 5-year period. The 0-18 year-old population in the District currently totals 4,417. This population is projected to increase by 68, or 1.5 percent. The median age is projected to increase by approximately 3%, from 42.5 to 43.8 years of age.

Buckeye Valley Local School District 2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016-21 Change 2016-21 (%)

Total Population 17,605 18,905 1,300 7.4%

Age 0-4 928 958 30 3.2%

Age 5-9 1,138 1,122 -16 -1.4%

Age 10-14 1,404 1,350 -54 -3.8%

Age 15-18 947 1,055 108 11.4%

Total Age 0-18 4,417 4,485 68 1.5%

Median Age 42.5 43.8 1.3 3.1%

Source: ESRI


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Median and average household incomes in the State are projected to increase by approximately 12% and 10%, respectively over a 5-year period. The average family size is expected to remain the same, and the total number of family households is projected to increase slightly.

Median and average household incomes in the District are projected to increase by approximately 16% and 11%, respectively over a 5-year period. The average family size is projected to increase slightly, and the number of family households is projected to increase by approximately 7 percent.

The maps on the following pages illustrate the data identified in the tables. The color coding identifies areas within the District that may be increasing or decreasing at different rates than others.

Buckeye Valley Local School District 2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016-21 Change 2016-21 (%)

Median Household Income $82,323 $95,628 $13,305 16.2%

Average Household Income $98,253 $109,272 $11,019 11.2%

Average Family Size 3.06 3.08 0.02 0.7%

Total Family Households 5,077 5,406 329 6.5%

Source: ESRI


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HOUSING INFORMATION

The table below illustrates the number of single-family dwelling building permits issued each year in Buckeye Valley Local District by township, village, and city.

Additionally, for 2016 and 2017, the Delaware County Regional Planning Commission has collected residential building permit data by school district. This data includes both single and multi-family residential units.

Currently, there is one subdivision with final approval—Scioto Ridge with a planned 162 new single family homes. There are others in the works.

Year # of Permits Issued

2016 59

2017* 7


Source: Delaware County Regional Planning Commission

* through January 2017

Residential Building Permits

Year Brown Twp Concord Twp Kingston Twp Liberty Twp Marlboro Twp Oxford Twp Radnor Twp Scioto Twp Thompson Twp Troy Twp Ashley Village Kilbourne Ostrander Total

2005 4 43 3 3 2 4 16 18 3 5 0 0 17 118

2006 2 29 9 0 4 6 6 15 5 1 0 1 14 92

2007 2 30 6 0 2 6 3 5 5 2 0 0 7 68

2008 2 18 1 0 0 1 3 7 0 2 1 0 6 41

2009 4 13 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 23

2010 2 33 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 7 48

2011 3 30 0 0 0 1 1 5 1 1 0 0 4 46

2012 4 36 1 0 0 1 3 7 1 1 1 0 10 65

2013 3 24 2 0 0 1 6 8 1 0 1 0 23 69

2014 5 9 1 1 2 1 6 8 0 0 0 0 10 43

2015 3 12 4 0 0 1 2 8 0 2 0 0 12 44

2016* 2 9 4 0 0 1 4 16 0 1 0 1 6 44

* through September 2016


Single Family Building Permit Data

Source: Delaware County Regional Planning Commission


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SURVIVAL RATIOS

The chart below demonstrates the changes in enrollment as students move through the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was growth and new students entered the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline with students leaving the system. Birth to Kindergarten: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend

kindergarten in the District 5 years later. Percentages less than 100% result from movement out of the district, attendance at a non-public or charter school, or residence in another district within the same area.

Grades 8-9: The higher than usual percentage often is a result of school district promotion policies.

Often in school districts, students are promoted from 8th to 9th grade and after one year in 9th grade do not have sufficient credits to be classified as 10th graders and are counted again as 9th graders the following year. There may also be students who attended private or charter schools or are home schooled through grade 8 and then attend public schools for high school education.

The following table illustrates the survival ratios for the Buckeye Valley Local School District.

from to birth -> K K->1 1->2 2->3 3->4 4->5 5->6 6->7 7->8 8->9 9->10 10->11 11->12

2007 2008 18.4% 105.4% 104.4% 103.6% 98.2% 98.9% 107.0% 102.7% 103.4% 104.7% 102.5% 100.0% 100.5%

2008 2009 18.4% 107.5% 101.5% 103.0% 100.0% 101.2% 96.3% 96.7% 100.5% 99.4% 100.0% 97.0% 101.8%

2009 2010 16.3% 105.1% 96.5% 103.0% 101.8% 98.5% 107.3% 100.0% 100.6% 106.3% 99.4% 93.5% 89.8%

2010 2011 15.7% 97.4% 94.7% 97.4% 102.5% 106.9% 103.0% 101.1% 101.1% 104.5% 95.1% 93.9% 92.5%

2011 2012 13.2% 95.4% 100.0% 100.6% 98.9% 99.5% 98.4% 99.0% 98.3% 101.1% 92.5% 98.4% 99.4%

2012 2013 13.7% 112.6% 103.4% 98.7% 99.4% 97.8% 96.2% 91.8% 98.5% 106.8% 98.4% 99.4% 87.9%

2013 2014 14.8% 110.2% 106.6% 107.3% 111.5% 95.5% 95.1% 89.5% 122.6% 106.6% 102.7% 110.5% 99.4%

2014 2015 16.1% 100.7% 95.4% 95.7% 99.4% 103.0% 104.7% 115.6% 116.2% 88.8% 100.5% 103.6% 87.5%

2015 2016 14.2% 104.7% 107.9% 102.8% 102.6% 105.6% 102.9% 104.0% 103.5% 102.4% 104.4% 98.6% 97.0%

average 15.64% 104.335% 101.15% 101.3% 101.58% 100.8% 101.2% 100.0% 105.0% 102.295% 99.488% 99.441% 95.098%

standard

deviation 1.773% 5.332% 4.584% 3.401% 3.805% 3.543% 4.537% 7.125% 8.043% 5.333% 3.564% 4.877% 5.363%


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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Three sets of enrollment projections were developed after analyzing the data collected in this report. The moderate (most likely) projections indicate an increase of 115 students from the 2016-17 to the 2026-27 school year. The following tables and graph illustrate projected enrollments by grade and by grade group through the 2026-27 school year.

Grade2016-17

Actual2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Pre-K 78 87 89 92 91 92 93 93 93 94 94

K 127 141 144 149 148 149 150 150 151 152 153

1 156 135 149 153 157 156 157 158 159 160 161

2 151 163 140 154 158 163 163 164 164 165 166

3 148 154 166 143 157 162 167 166 167 168 168

4 159 152 158 170 146 161 165 170 169 171 171

5 169 163 155 161 173 149 164 169 174 173 174

6 175 176 169 161 167 179 154 170 175 180 179

7 184 193 193 185 176 183 197 169 187 192 198

8 207 189 198 198 190 181 188 202 174 192 197

9 213 219 200 209 209 201 191 199 214 184 203

10 191 219 225 206 215 215 206 196 204 219 189

11 209 195 223 229 209 218 219 210 200 208 223

12 194 200 186 213 219 200 209 209 201 191 199

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,361 2,386 2,395 2,423 2,415 2,409 2,423 2,425 2,432 2,449 2,475

Ungraded 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Grand Total 2,363 2,389 2,398 2,426 2,418 2,412 2,426 2,428 2,435 2,452 2,478

Grade

2016-17

Actual2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Pre-K - 4 819 832 846 861 857 883 895 901 903 910 913

5 - 8 735 721 715 705 706 692 703 710 710 737 748

9 - 12 807 833 834 857 852 834 825 814 819 802 814

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,361 2,386 2,395 2,423 2,415 2,409 2,423 2,425 2,432 2,449 2,475

Ungraded 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Grand Total 2,363 2,389 2,398 2,426 2,418 2,412 2,426 2,428 2,435 2,452 2,478

Source: FutureThink

Projected Enrollment by Grade Group


Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Most Likely

Source: FutureThink



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March 10, 2017

In addition to the moderate [most likely] enrollment projection presented in this report, following are low and high enrollment projections. The following defines in terms of economy and housing, the differences between the three projections. Low Projection

Higher inflation/interest rates

Decline in new housing (less than 30 new single-family homes per year) Moderate/Most Likely Projection

Moderate inflation/interest rates

Moderate level of new housing (40-60 new single-family homes per year) High Projection

Low inflation/interest rates

High level of new housing (more than 70 new single family homes per year)

The projections range from a low of 2,243 students to a high of 2,687 students in the 2026-27 school year.


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March 10, 2017

Low Projection

The low projection indicates a decrease of 120 students or approximately 5% over the next ten years.

Grade2016-17

Actual2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Pre-K 78 86 88 91 91 91 92 93 93 93 94

K 127 140 143 148 147 148 149 150 150 151 152

1 156 133 146 150 155 154 155 156 157 157 158

2 151 161 137 150 154 159 158 159 160 161 161

3 148 151 161 137 150 154 159 158 159 160 161

4 159 150 153 162 138 151 156 160 160 161 161

5 169 162 152 155 164 140 154 158 163 162 163

6 175 173 165 156 159 168 143 157 161 166 165

7 184 182 180 172 162 165 175 149 163 168 173

8 207 186 184 182 173 163 166 176 150 165 169

9 213 216 193 191 189 180 170 173 183 156 171

10 191 219 221 198 196 194 185 174 177 188 160

11 209 191 219 221 198 196 194 185 174 177 188

12 194 195 178 203 205 184 182 180 172 162 165

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,361 2,345 2,320 2,316 2,281 2,247 2,238 2,228 2,222 2,227 2,241

Ungraded 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Grand Total 2,363 2,347 2,322 2,318 2,283 2,249 2,240 2,230 2,224 2,229 2,243

Grade

2016-17

Actual2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Pre-K - 4 819 821 828 838 835 857 869 876 879 883 887

5 - 8 735 703 681 665 658 636 638 640 637 661 670

9 - 12 807 821 811 813 788 754 731 712 706 683 684

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,361 2,345 2,320 2,316 2,281 2,247 2,238 2,228 2,222 2,227 2,241

Ungraded 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Grand Total 2,363 2,347 2,322 2,318 2,283 2,249 2,240 2,230 2,224 2,229 2,243

Source: FutureThink

Projected Enrollment by Grade Group - Low


Projected Enrollment - Low

Source: FutureThink



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March 10, 2017

High Projection

The high projection indicates an increase of 324 students or 14% over the next ten years.

Grade2016-17

Actual2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Pre-K 78 89 91 94 94 94 95 96 96 96 97

K 127 144 148 153 152 153 154 155 155 156 157

1 156 137 155 159 164 163 164 165 166 166 167

2 151 164 143 162 166 171 170 171 172 173 174

3 148 156 168 147 166 171 176 175 176 177 178

4 159 153 161 174 151 172 176 182 181 182 183

5 169 166 160 168 181 158 179 184 189 188 190

6 175 176 173 166 174 188 164 186 191 197 196

7 184 193 193 190 182 191 206 180 204 209 216

8 207 196 204 205 201 193 203 219 191 216 222

9 213 219 207 216 217 213 204 214 231 202 229

10 191 219 225 212 222 222 218 210 220 237 207

11 209 197 226 232 219 228 229 225 216 227 245

12 194 207 194 222 229 216 225 226 222 213 223

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,361 2,416 2,448 2,500 2,518 2,533 2,563 2,588 2,610 2,639 2,684

Ungraded 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Grand Total 2,363 2,419 2,451 2,503 2,521 2,536 2,566 2,591 2,613 2,642 2,687

Grade

2016-17

Actual2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

Pre-K - 4 819 843 866 889 893 924 935 944 946 950 956

5 - 8 735 731 730 729 738 730 752 769 775 810 824

9 - 12 807 842 852 882 887 879 876 875 889 879 904

Pre-K - 12 Total 2,361 2,416 2,448 2,500 2,518 2,533 2,563 2,588 2,610 2,639 2,684

Ungraded 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Grand Total 2,363 2,419 2,451 2,503 2,521 2,536 2,566 2,591 2,613 2,642 2,687

Source: FutureThink

Projected Enrollment by Grade Group - High


Projected Enrollment - High

Source: FutureThink



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March 10, 2017

CONCLUSION

As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to live birth counts, enrollment in elementary schools, and any housing growth. Each of these factors will have an impact on future student enrollment. FutureThink is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide the District with enrollment projection services. We hope this document will provide the necessary information to make informed decisions about the future of the Buckeye Valley Local School District.

final report - buckeyevalley.k12.oh.us

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