final seasonal assessment of resource adequacy for the ercot region, summer 2015
TRANSCRIPT
1
Release Date: May 4, 2015
FINAL Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA)
Summer 2015
SUMMARY The ERCOT Region is expected to have sufficient installed generating capacity to serve forecasted peak demands in the upcoming summer season (June - September 2015). The forecasted available generating reserve capacity has increased since the Preliminary Summer SARA was released on March 1, 2015. The primary reason for this change is the summer weather forecast, which generally indicates milder conditions than the 12-year normal forecast used in the Preliminary Summer SARA. As a result, the load forecast for summer has decreased by 1,071 MW, from 69,057 MW to 67,986 MW. Also contributing to the higher forecasted reserve capacity is an increase in planned capacity additions expected to be available by the start of the summer season. For the summer season, expected new planned capacity additions now include the natural gas-fired 790 MW Panda Temple II facility (717 MW summer rating), which previously was forecasted to be available in August and is now expected in May 2015. The construction schedule has also changed for the planned 341 MW gas-fired project, Ector County Energy Center G (294 MW summer rating, and formerly called Goldsmith Peakers). This facility has been delayed into the fall 2015 season. The forecast for planned wind additions is 1,265 nameplate MW, with a summer Peak Average Capacity Contribution of 152 MW. This capacity contribution was derived by applying the methodology to calculate summer Peak Average Wind Capacity Percentages approved by the ERCOT Board of Directors in October 2014. This methodology currently results in 12 percent for non-coastal resources and 56 percent for coastal resources. Due to recent rainfall, the three R.W. Miller gas-fired steam units (summer capacity rating of 403 MW) previously on extended outage due to insufficient cooling water are now expected to be available for the summer season. Based on ERCOT's drought risk analysis, no other changes to unit capacities due to drought conditions are anticipated or reflected in the summer assessment. ERCOT will continue to monitor the potential effect of drought conditions on generation capacity. At this time, ERCOT does not anticipate changes to available generation capacity for the summer season due to compliance with the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) or Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). CSAPR came into effect on January 1, 2015, and the compliance deadline for the MATS rule for units that have not received compliance extensions is April 15, 2015. Confidential survey information gathered in March 2015 indicates that coal generators are expected to be compliant with CSAPR, and are either compliant with MATS or have received a one-year compliance extension. ERCOT continues to monitor implementation and consults with generation resource owners on their compliance plans for CSAPR, MATS and other environmental regulations.
2
Ope
ratio
nal R
esou
rces
(exc
ludi
ng w
ind)
, MW
64
,747
Bas
ed o
n cu
rren
t Sea
sona
l Max
imum
Sus
tain
able
Lim
its re
port
ed th
roug
h th
e un
it re
gist
ratio
n pr
oces
sSw
itcha
ble
Capa
city
Tot
al, M
W3,
496
Ins
talle
d ca
paci
ty o
f uni
ts th
at c
an in
terc
onne
ct w
ith o
ther
Reg
ions
and
are
ava
ilabl
e to
ERC
OT
less
Sw
itcha
ble
Capa
city
Una
vaila
ble
to E
RCO
T, M
W(4
70)
Bas
ed o
n su
rvey
resp
onse
s of S
witc
habl
e Re
sour
ce o
wne
rsM
othb
all R
esou
rces
, MW
1,87
5 B
ased
on
seas
onal
Mot
hbal
l uni
ts p
lus P
roba
bilit
y of
Ret
urn
resp
onse
s of M
othb
all R
esou
rce
owne
rsPr
ivat
e U
se N
etw
ork
Capa
city
Con
trib
utio
n, M
W4,
344
Ave
rage
cap
abili
ty o
f the
top
20 h
ours
in th
e su
mm
er p
eak
seas
ons f
or th
e pa
st th
ree
year
s (20
12-2
014)
Non
-Coa
stal
Win
d Re
sour
ces C
apac
ity C
ontr
ibut
ion,
MW
1,36
6 B
ased
on
12%
of i
nsta
lled
capa
city
for n
on-c
oast
al w
ind
reso
urce
s per
ERC
OT
Nod
al P
roto
cols
Sect
ion
3.2.
6.2.
2Co
asta
l Win
d Re
sour
ces C
apac
ity C
ontr
ibut
ion,
MW
941
Bas
ed o
n 56
% o
f ins
talle
d ca
paci
ty fo
r coa
stal
win
d re
sour
ces p
er E
RCO
T N
odal
Pro
toco
ls Se
ctio
n 3.
2.6.
2.2
RMR
Reso
urce
s to
be u
nder
Con
trac
t, M
W0
No
RMR
Reso
urce
s cur
rent
ly u
nder
con
trac
tN
on-S
ynch
rono
us T
ies C
apac
ity C
ontr
ibut
ion,
MW
517
Ave
rage
cap
abili
ty o
f the
top
20 h
ours
in th
e su
mm
er p
eak
seas
ons f
or th
e pa
st th
ree
year
s (20
12-2
014)
Plan
ned
Reso
urce
s (no
t win
d) w
ith si
gned
IA a
nd A
ir Pe
rmit,
MW
717
Bas
ed o
n in
-ser
vice
dat
es p
rovi
ded
by d
evel
oper
s of g
ener
atio
n re
sour
ces
Plan
ned
Non
-Coa
stal
Win
d w
ith si
gned
IA ,
MW
152
Bas
ed o
n in
-ser
vice
dat
es p
rovi
ded
by d
evel
oper
s of g
ener
atio
n re
sour
ces a
nd 1
2% o
f ins
talle
d ca
paci
ty fo
r non
-coa
stal
win
d re
sour
ces
Plan
ned
Coas
tal W
ind
with
sign
ed IA
, M
W0
Bas
ed o
n in
-ser
vice
dat
es p
rovi
ded
by d
evel
oper
s of g
ener
atio
n re
sour
ces a
nd 5
6% o
f ins
talle
d ca
paci
ty fo
r coa
stal
win
d re
sour
ces
[a] T
otal
Res
ourc
es, M
W77
,684
[b] P
eak
Dem
and,
MW
67,9
86 S
umm
er p
eak
fore
cast
is b
ased
on
a m
ilder
sum
mer
wea
ther
fore
cast
sim
ilar t
o 20
13 &
201
4
[c] R
eser
ve C
apac
ity [a
- b]
, MW
9,69
8
Fore
cast
ed
Sum
mer
Sea
son
Peak
Loa
d
Extr
eme
Load
/
Typi
cal G
ener
atio
n O
utag
es
Extr
eme
Load
/
Extr
eme
Gene
ratio
n O
utag
es
Seas
onal
Loa
d Ad
just
men
t3,
369
3,36
9
T ypi
cal M
aint
enan
ce O
utag
es32
0
32
0
320
T y
pica
l For
ced
Out
ages
2,40
6
2,
406
2,40
6
90th
Per
cent
ile F
orce
d O
utag
es-
-
2,25
0
[d] T
otal
Use
s of R
eser
ve C
apac
ity2,
726
6,09
5
8,
345
[e] C
apac
ity A
vaila
ble
for O
pera
ting
Rese
rves
(c-d
), M
W6,
972
3,60
3
1,
353
Le
ss th
an 2
,300
MW
indi
cate
s risk
of E
EA1
Bas
ed o
n hi
stor
ical
ave
rage
of p
lann
ed o
utag
es fo
r Jun
e th
roug
h Se
ptem
ber w
eekd
ays (
star
ting
in A
ugus
t 201
0).
Bas
ed o
n hi
stor
ical
ave
rage
of f
orce
d ou
tage
s for
June
thro
ugh
Sept
embe
r wee
kday
s (st
artin
g in
Aug
ust 2
010)
. B
ased
on
hist
oric
al fo
rced
out
ages
ass
umin
g a
90%
con
fiden
ce in
terv
al
Seas
onal
Ass
essm
ent o
f Res
ourc
e Ad
equa
cy fo
r the
ERC
OT
Regi
onSu
mm
er 2
015
- Fin
alRe
leas
e Da
te:
May
4, 2
015
Rang
e of
Pot
entia
l Risk
s
Fore
cast
ed C
apac
ity a
nd D
eman
d
Bas
ed o
n ex
trem
e w
eath
er fo
reca
st u
sing
2011
wea
ther
dat
a.
3
Uni
t Cap
aciti
es -
Sum
mer
UN
IT N
AME
GEN
ERAT
ION
IN
TER
CO
NN
ECTI
ON
PR
OJE
CT
CO
DE
UN
IT C
OD
EC
OU
NTY
FUEL
ZON
EST
ART
YEAR
2015
Ope
ratio
nal R
esou
rces
4C
OM
AN
CH
E P
EA
K U
1C
PS
ES
_UN
IT1
SO
ME
RV
ELL
NU
CLE
AR
NO
RTH
1990
1,20
5.0
5C
OM
AN
CH
E P
EA
K U
2C
PS
ES
_UN
IT2
SO
ME
RV
ELL
NU
CLE
AR
NO
RTH
1993
1,19
5.0
6S
OU
TH T
EXA
S U
1S
TP_S
TP_G
1M
ATA
GO
RD
AN
UC
LEA
RC
OA
STA
L19
881,
286.
0
7
SO
UTH
TE
XAS
U2
STP
_STP
_G2
MA
TAG
OR
DA
NU
CLE
AR
CO
AS
TAL
1989
1,29
5.0
8B
IG B
RO
WN
U1
BB
SE
S_U
NIT
1FR
EE
STO
NE
CO
AL
NO
RTH
1971
600.
0
9B
IG B
RO
WN
U2
BB
SE
S_U
NIT
2FR
EE
STO
NE
CO
AL
NO
RTH
1972
595.
0
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OLE
TO C
RE
EK
CO
LETO
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GO
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DC
OA
LS
OU
TH19
8066
0.0
11
FAY
ETT
E P
OW
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YE
TTE
CO
AL
SO
UTH
1979
604.
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YE
TTE
PO
WE
R U
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PY
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OA
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TH19
8059
9.0
13
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ETT
E P
OW
ER
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FPP
YD
2_FP
P_G
3FA
YE
TTE
CO
AL
SO
UTH
1988
437.
0
14G
IBB
ON
S C
RE
EK
U1
GIB
CR
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ES
CO
ALN
OR
TH19
8347
0.0
15
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SP
RU
CE
U1
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ER
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1B
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RC
OA
LS
OU
TH19
9255
5.0
16
J K
SP
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CE
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S2
BE
XAR
CO
AL
SO
UTH
2010
775.
0
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EE
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1C
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VE
RS
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OU
TH19
7742
0.0
18
J T
DE
ELY
U2
CA
LAV
ER
S_J
TD2
BE
XAR
CO
AL
SO
UTH
1978
420.
0
19LI
ME
STO
NE
U1
LEG
_LE
G_G
1LI
ME
STO
NE
CO
AL
NO
RTH
1985
831.
0
20LI
ME
STO
NE
U2
LEG
_LE
G_G
2LI
ME
STO
NE
CO
AL
NO
RTH
1986
858.
0
21M
AR
TIN
LA
KE
U1
MLS
ES
_UN
IT1
RU
SK
CO
ALN
OR
TH19
7780
0.0
22
MA
RTI
N L
AK
E U
2M
LSE
S_U
NIT
2R
US
KC
OAL
NO
RTH
1978
805.
0
23M
ON
TIC
ELL
O U
3M
NS
ES
_UN
IT3
TITU
SC
OA
LN
OR
TH19
7879
5.0
24
OA
K G
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VE
SE
S U
109
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0006
aO
GS
ES
_UN
IT1A
RO
BE
RTS
ON
CO
AL
NO
RTH
2010
840.
0
25O
AK
GR
OV
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ES
U2
09IN
R00
06b
OG
SE
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ER
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NC
OA
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OR
TH20
1182
5.0
26
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AR
GE
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OA
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ES
T19
8665
0.0
27
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N M
IGU
EL
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SA
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SA
NM
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CO
SA
CO
AL
SO
UTH
1982
391.
0
28SA
ND
OW
U5
08IN
R00
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ES
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IT5
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AM
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ALS
OU
TH20
1060
0.0
29
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ND
Y C
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EK
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ES
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TH20
1397
0.0
30
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OA
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RTH
1990
156.
0
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AK
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32
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1980
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170.
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ERAT
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NTY
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EN
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AS
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US
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2003
166.
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EN
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US
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2003
166.
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EN
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US
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2003
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OA
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OW
AR
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OA
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AR
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ST
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HA
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ER
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AS
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US
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2009
163.
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BA
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ER
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AS
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2009
163.
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ER
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AS
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2009
178.
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TER
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206
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bC
BE
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AS
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UTH
2007
69.0
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RA
DO
BE
ND
EN
ER
GY
CE
NTE
R S
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R00
35b
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2007
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2008
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2008
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2008
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2008
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2002
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2002
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2002
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2003
168.
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2003
160.
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2003
160.
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2003
168.
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2003
160.
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2003
160.
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2003
417.
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2015
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2002
151.
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2002
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2002
176.
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2002
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2002
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2002
174.
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2000
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2000
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216.
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2002
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2000
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bQ
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2000
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2000
96.6
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2000
96.6
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20.0
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EST
ART
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2015
220
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NG
INE
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LAR
ED
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2008
94.2
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BG
AS
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2008
94.2
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PE
AK
ER
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104
INR
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LEO
N_C
RK
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PC
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RG
AS
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UTH
2004
46.0
225
LEO
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RE
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PE
AK
ER
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204
INR
0009
LEO
N_C
RK
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PC
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RG
AS
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UTH
2004
46.0
226
LEO
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RE
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PE
AK
ER
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304
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LEO
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AS
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2004
46.0
227
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404
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LEO
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RK
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RG
AS
SO
UTH
2004
46.0
228
MO
RG
AN
CR
EE
K C
TG 1
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SE
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HE
LLG
AS
WE
ST
1988
68.0
229
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RG
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CR
EE
K C
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MG
SE
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HE
LLG
AS
WE
ST
1988
68.0
230
MO
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SE
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HE
LLG
AS
WE
ST
1988
68.0
231
MO
RG
AN
CR
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SE
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HE
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AS
WE
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1988
68.0
232
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CR
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SE
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AS
WE
ST
1988
68.0
233
MO
RG
AN
CR
EE
K C
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MG
SE
S_C
T6M
ITC
HE
LLG
AS
WE
ST
1988
67.0
234
PE
AR
SA
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EN
GIN
E P
LAN
T A
09IN
R00
79a
PE
AR
SA
L2_A
GR
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AS
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2012
50.6
235
PE
AR
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EN
GIN
E P
LAN
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09IN
R00
79a
PE
AR
SA
L2_A
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IOG
AS
SO
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2012
50.6
236
PE
AR
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EN
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E P
LAN
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09IN
R00
79b
PE
AR
SA
L2_A
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IOG
AS
SO
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2012
50.6
237
PE
AR
SA
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EN
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E P
LAN
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09IN
R00
79b
PE
AR
SA
L2_A
GR
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AS
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2012
50.6
238
PE
RM
IAN
BA
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GA
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ES
T19
8868
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23
9P
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MIA
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AS
IN C
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PB
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AR
DG
AS
WE
ST
1988
65.0
240
PE
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T19
8868
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24
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DG
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WE
ST
1990
69.0
242
PE
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BA
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CTG
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T19
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T H
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51
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57.0
258
T H
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52
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T H
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53
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1975
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1975
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1975
57.0
262
T H
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56
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1975
57.0
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CO
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1W
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EN
DG
AS
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1967
13.0
270
W A
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H -
PE
TRA
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109
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WIP
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AS
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2009
44.0
272
WIN
CH
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TER
PO
WE
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27W
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44.0
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WIN
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SG
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1970
745.
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277
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225.
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435.
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286
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420.
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1961
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1961
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2016
75.0
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1967
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1971
107.
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1975
146.
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306
SIM
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130.
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307
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1968
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2015
308
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1972
336.
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1973
61.0
311
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1965
502.
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313
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1965
226.
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314
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6622
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1968
230.
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316
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1958
169.
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318
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1961
246.
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ITE
CR
EE
K L
FGD
G_F
RE
IH_2
UN
ITS
CO
MA
LB
IOM
AS
SS
OU
TH20
113.
2
11
UN
IT N
AME
GEN
ERAT
ION
IN
TER
CO
NN
ECTI
ON
PR
OJE
CT
CO
DE
UN
IT C
OD
EC
OU
NTY
FUEL
ZON
EST
ART
YEAR
2015
352
WM
RE
NE
WA
BLE
-WE
STS
IDE
LFG
DG
_WS
THL_
3UN
ITS
PA
RK
ER
BIO
MA
SS
NO
RTH
2010
4.8
353
Ope
ratio
nal C
apac
ity T
otal
(Coa
l, G
as, N
ucle
ar, B
iom
ass,
Sol
ar)
64,3
33.3
354
355
Ope
ratio
nal R
esou
rces
(Hyd
ro)
356
AM
ISTA
D H
YD
RO
1A
MIS
TAD
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VA
L V
ER
DE
HY
DR
OW
ES
T19
8337
.9
35
7A
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TAD
HY
DR
O 2
AM
ISTA
D_A
MIS
TAG
2V
AL
VE
RD
EH
YD
RO
WE
ST
1983
37.9
358
AU
STI
N H
YD
RO
1A
US
TPL_
AU
STI
NG
1TR
AV
ISH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1940
8.0
359
AU
STI
N H
YD
RO
2A
US
TPL_
AU
STI
NG
2TR
AV
ISH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1940
9.0
360
BU
CH
AN
AN
HY
DR
O 1
BU
CH
AN
_BU
CH
AN
G1
LLA
NO
HY
DR
OS
OU
TH19
3816
.0
36
1B
UC
HA
NA
N H
YD
RO
2B
UC
HA
N_B
UC
HA
NG
2LL
AN
OH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1938
16.0
362
BU
CH
AN
AN
HY
DR
O 3
BU
CH
AN
_BU
CH
AN
G3
LLA
NO
HY
DR
OS
OU
TH19
5017
.0
36
3D
EN
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N D
AM
1D
ND
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OG
1G
RA
YS
ON
HY
DR
ON
OR
TH19
4440
.0
36
4D
EN
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N D
AM
2D
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AM
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NIS
OG
2G
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YS
ON
HY
DR
ON
OR
TH19
4840
.0
36
5FA
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N H
YD
RO
1FA
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N_F
ALC
ON
G1
STA
RR
HY
DR
OS
OU
TH19
5412
.0
36
6FA
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N H
YD
RO
2FA
LCO
N_F
ALC
ON
G2
STA
RR
HY
DR
OS
OU
TH19
5412
.0
36
7FA
LCO
N H
YD
RO
3FA
LCO
N_F
ALC
ON
G3
STA
RR
HY
DR
OS
OU
TH19
5412
.0
36
8G
RA
NIT
E S
HO
ALS
HY
DR
O 1
WIR
TZ_W
IRTZ
_G1
BU
RN
ET
HY
DR
OS
OU
TH19
5129
.0
36
9G
RA
NIT
E S
HO
ALS
HY
DR
O 2
WIR
TZ_W
IRTZ
_G2
BU
RN
ET
HY
DR
OS
OU
TH19
5129
.0
37
0IN
KS
HY
DR
O 1
INK
SD
A_I
NK
S_G
1LL
AN
OH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1938
14.0
371
MA
RB
LE F
ALL
S H
YD
RO
1M
AR
BFA
_MA
RB
FAG
1B
UR
NE
TH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1951
21.0
372
MA
RB
LE F
ALL
S H
YD
RO
2M
AR
BFA
_MA
RB
FAG
2B
UR
NE
TH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1951
20.0
373
MA
RS
HA
LL F
OR
D H
YD
RO
1M
AR
SFO
_MA
RS
FOG
1TR
AV
ISH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1941
36.0
374
MA
RS
HA
LL F
OR
D H
YD
RO
2M
AR
SFO
_MA
RS
FOG
2TR
AV
ISH
YD
RO
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UTH
1941
36.0
375
MA
RS
HA
LL F
OR
D H
YD
RO
3M
AR
SFO
_MA
RS
FOG
3TR
AV
ISH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1941
29.0
376
WH
ITN
EY
DA
M H
YD
RO
WN
D_W
HIT
NE
Y1
BO
SQ
UE
HY
DR
ON
OR
TH19
5320
.0
37
7W
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TH19
5315
.0
37
8A
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IC F
AC
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AK
HL_
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RR
AN
TH
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RO
NO
RTH
2014
1.4
379
EA
GLE
PA
SS
HY
DR
OD
G_E
AG
LE_H
Y_E
AG
LE_H
Y1
MA
VE
RIC
KH
YD
RO
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UTH
2005
9.6
380
GU
AD
ALU
PE
BLA
NC
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IVE
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UTH
-CA
NY
ON
DG
_CA
NY
HY
_CA
NY
HY
G1
CO
MA
LH
YD
RO
SO
UTH
1989
6.0
381
GU
AD
ALU
PE
BLA
NC
O R
IVE
R A
UTH
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KE
WO
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TA
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314.
8
38
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ITS
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287.
7
38
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283.
6
38
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L_1U
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DE
NTO
NH
YD
RO
NO
RTH
1991
2.2
385
Ope
ratio
nal C
apac
ity T
otal
(Hyd
ro)
542.
1
386
Hyd
ro C
apac
ity C
ontri
butio
n (T
op 2
0 H
ours
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38
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l Cap
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xten
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38
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l Cap
acity
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al (I
nclu
ding
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ro)
64,7
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390
391
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habl
e R
esou
rces
392
KIA
MIC
HI E
NE
RG
Y F
AC
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KM
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OR
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39
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I EN
ER
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FA
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AS
NO
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2003
155.
0
394
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MIC
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NE
RG
Y F
AC
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AS
NO
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2003
153.
0
12
UN
IT N
AME
GEN
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IN
TER
CO
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ON
PR
OJE
CT
CO
DE
UN
IT C
OD
EC
OU
NTY
FUEL
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EST
ART
YEAR
2015
396
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NE
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GY
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2003
315.
0
398
TEN
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200
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2000
160.
0
400
TEN
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2000
400.
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402
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201
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135.
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404
TEN
AS
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170.
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407
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203
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OLL
OW
WIN
D 2
05IN
R00
18a
HH
OLL
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2_W
IND
1TA
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RW
IND
WE
ST
2006
158.
0
453
HO
RS
E H
OLL
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WIN
D 3
06IN
R00
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HO
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D_1
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HO
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1TA
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IND
WE
ST
2006
108.
0
455
INA
DA
LE W
IND
07IN
R00
45b
IND
L_IN
AD
ALE
1N
OLA
NW
IND
WE
ST
2008
196.
6
456
IND
IAN
ME
SA
WIN
D F
ARM
00IN
R00
22IN
DN
NW
P_I
ND
NN
WP
PE
CO
SW
IND
WE
ST
2001
82.5
457
JUM
BO
RO
AD
WIN
D 1
13IN
R00
59b
HR
FDW
IND
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DW
IND
1D
EA
F S
MIT
HW
IND
PA
NH
AN
DLE
2015
146.
2
458
JUM
BO
RO
AD
WIN
D 2
13IN
R00
59b
HR
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DW
IND
2D
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F S
MIT
HW
IND
PA
NH
AN
DLE
2015
153.
6
459
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138
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MO
UN
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25K
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GN
EU
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WE
ST
2001
79.3
461
KIN
G M
OU
NTA
IN N
W00
INR
0025
KIN
G_N
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NW
UP
TON
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DW
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MO
UN
TAIN
SE
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R00
25K
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EU
PTO
NW
IND
WE
ST
2001
40.3
463
KIN
G M
OU
NTA
IN S
W00
INR
0025
KIN
G_S
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SW
UP
TON
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AC
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LFO
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WE
ST
2007
100.
0
467
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TAR
WIN
D 2
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ST
OA
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204
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0011
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INE
WIN
DP
AR
K I
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R00
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NE
WO
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1M
ITC
HE
LLW
IND
WE
ST
2009
49.5
469
LOR
AIN
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IND
PA
RK
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LON
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MIT
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ELL
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INE
WIN
DP
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K IV
09IN
R00
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HE
LLW
IND
WE
ST
2011
24.0
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SQ
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RE
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WIN
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09IN
R00
51M
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QC
RK
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CR
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WE
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2015
105.
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474
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MI W
IND
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14IN
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M1_
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GR
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WIN
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214
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PA
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2014
144.
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476
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OO
WIN
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AR
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EC
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NS
WIN
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FA
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WIN
KLE
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WE
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478
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TRE
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WIN
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AR
M 2
07IN
R00
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FA
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R00
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OW
FH
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AR
DW
IND
WE
ST
2008
58.8
480
PA
NH
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DLE
WIN
D 1
U1
14IN
R00
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2P
H1_
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CA
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IND
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214
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SO
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PA
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2014
109.
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482
PA
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AN
DLE
WIN
D 2
U1
14IN
R00
30b
PH
2_U
NIT
1C
AR
SO
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PA
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2014
94.2
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AN
DLE
WIN
D 2
U2
14IN
R00
30b
PH
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NIT
2C
AR
SO
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IND
PA
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2014
96.6
14
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GEN
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IN
TER
CO
NN
ECTI
ON
PR
OJE
CT
CO
DE
UN
IT C
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OU
NTY
FUEL
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EST
ART
YEAR
2015
484
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CR
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208
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OW
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DW
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WE
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2008
115.
5
486
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CR
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WR
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PE
CO
SW
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WE
ST
2001
82.5
488
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CO
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WE
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2008
209.
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492
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FF W
IND
FA
RM
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LD_S
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1G
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SC
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WE
ST
2008
90.0
493
SE
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TE W
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R00
11S
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ATE
WD
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IT1
JAC
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NO
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150.
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494
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BIN
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WIN
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PE
CO
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2008
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RR
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2007
63.0
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TR
EN
T W
IND
FA
RM
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R00
29S
TWF_
T1N
OLA
NW
IND
WE
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2008
98.2
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R00
48S
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EN
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AR
TIN
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2003
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TER
WIN
D 2
A01
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EE
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WE
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2006
15.9
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WIN
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SW
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WE
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2011
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WIN
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WE
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2011
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TWA
TER
WIN
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INR
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SW
EE
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WE
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WE
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2007
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M01
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117.
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GY
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OY
DW
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PA
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57.0
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ST
213
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AR
CH
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WIN
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2008
112.
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522
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WE
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DG
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NO
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WIN
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2007
1.0
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-
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2016
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2016
-
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2016
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2016
-
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2017
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2016
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2015
-
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ME
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2015
-
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2016
-
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2016
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RA
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PA
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2017
-
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2016
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2015
-
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2016
-
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2015
-
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STR
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2017
-
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2016
-
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2016
-
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2016
-
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2016
-
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2016
-
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PA
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2016
-
617
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WE
ST
2016
-
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2016
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-
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19
Release Date: May 4, 2015
Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region Background The Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report is a deterministic approach to considering the impact of potential variables that may affect the sufficiency of installed resources to meet the peak electrical demand on the ERCOT System during a particular season. The standard approach to assessing resource adequacy for one or more years into the future is to account for projected load and resources on a normalized basis and to require sufficient reserves (resources in excess of peak demand, on this normalized basis) to cover the uncertainty in peak demand and resource availability to meet a one-in-ten-years loss-of-load event criteria on a probabilistic basis. For seasonal assessments that look ahead less than a year, specific information may be available (such as seasonal climate forecasts or anticipated common-mode events such as drought) which can be used to consider the range of resource adequacy in a more deterministic manner. In contrast to the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report, which addresses the sufficiency of planning reserves on an annual basis as described above, the SARA report focuses on the availability of sufficient operating reserves to avoid emergency actions such as deployment of voluntary load reduction resources. Consequently, load reduction resources included in the CDR report, such as Emergency Response Service (ERS) and Load Resources that provide operating reserves (LRs), are excluded from the SARA. The SARA report is intended to illustrate the range of resource adequacy outcomes that might occur, and thus help fulfill the reporting requirement per Public Utility Commission of Texas rule 25.362(i)(2)(H). Several sensitivity analyses are developed by varying the value of certain parameters that affect resource adequacy. The variation in these parameters is based on historic values of these parameters or adjustments by any known or expected changes.