finalization of risknis package b:
DESCRIPTION
Finalization of RiskNIS Package B: Summary of achievements including analysis of savings in investment in maintenance and optimized inspection planning June 2, 2010 Novi Sad / Belgrade. Summary of main achievements. All main goals achieved All indicators* well over 100%: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
www.risk-technologies.com ; www.stw.de
Collaboration with Petroleum Industry of Serbia, phase I I Saradnja sa Naftnom industrijom Srbije, faza I I
Finalization of RiskNIS Package B:
Summary of achievements including analysis of savings in investment in
maintenance and optimized inspection planning
June 2, 2010Novi Sad / Belgrade
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 2
All main goals achieved
All indicators* well over 100%: More components (RNS, RGE)
More analyses (Level 3 for all!)
More education
New results: NPV-based analysis of savings
Analysis of alternative inspection plans
Upgraded tool (Russian, new modules, new interface …)
Summary: RNP – whole FCC plant
(scope as planned, more analyses, see the dashboard)
RNS – uljara (not in the initial plan)
RGE – whole plant (not in the initial plan)
*NOTE: Some results yet to be uploaded – more available!
Summary of main achievements
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 3
Status in the overall project
?
? May 2010
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 4
List of main results so far (A + B) RBI
Management system: 5 major units; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report
API unit-based analysis: 65 units; available: 2 folders with detailed results, 1 summary report
API : over 2,500 components overall, out of which ca. 200 “bad actors”, out of which ca. 20% related to the investment plan; available: 1 summary report
RCM/RCFA
50+ units x “10 BA” = 200 BA approx. ; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report
Detailed analysis for approx. 200 components (prioritization in FCC!) ; reports available on-line
HSE
Draft basic Seveso report RNP; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report
5 HAZOPs in FCC RNP; available: 1 folder with detailed results, reports available on-line
2 Scenarios for QRA defined, QRA; available: 1 folder with detailed results, 1 summary report
Seveso reports + HAZOPS for Platforming RNS and RGE, reports available on-line
Feasibility Study 37 questionnaires (the “1,000 RiskNIS
questions”); available: 6 folders with detailed results, 1 summary report
Training and education Courses + certifications RBI,
RCM/RCFA and HSE; available: 3 folders with full course materials (text, CD, transparencies)
Training abroad Combined with ESPRiT
Other additional work, not planned … but done WITH A GOOD REASON! available: in the reports above
Extended feasibility study 10 bad actors >> linking RBI with
RCM/RCFA, also linking to HSE linking to the investment plan >>
customer’s savings oriented service! analysis and updating of the QA
procedures Preparation for the extension
“Occupational Safety (OSHA/HSSE)” Training & education – 1 RBI, 1 RCM
and 2 HSE course more than planned SOFTWARE ALSO IN RUSSIAN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - INVESTMENT
IN INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 5
Overview of economic indicators
Cash flow in a corporation
Flow of working capital
Production costs
Maintenance costs
Capitalized cost
Maintenance cost – operational
expenditure or capital expenditure
Net present value
S-Factor
Engineering aspects
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 6
Optimize maintenance plan to obtain maximum capital value at any time of the plant life (or given time horizon)
Used for maintenance of equipment with the degradation over time damage mechanisms
S-Factor
Risk before (probability x consequences)
Risk after (probability x consequences)
Estimated costs of action / consequence of action
Approach
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 7
Sample results: SAVE IN SAFETY & COMPLIANCE
Optimisani plan inspekcija
Cena po inspekciji Broj inspekcija Cena po inspekciji
piping 2555 200 16 8,176,000.00 € 340 7 6,080,900.00 €
Columns 23 8000 16 2,944,000.00 € 13600 7 2,189,600.00 €
Heat exchangers 110 2000 16 3,520,000.00 € 3400 7 2,618,000.00 €
Vessels 110 1000 16 1,760,000.00 € 1700 7 1,309,000.00 €
Reactors 7 1000 16 112,000.00 € 1700 7 83,300.00 €
Filters 24 800 16 307,200.00 € 1360 7 228,480.00 €
Air coolers 16 1000 16 256,000.00 € 1700 7 190,400.00 €
Fired heaters 12 2000 16 384,000.00 € 3400 7 285,600.00 €
Fin/Fans 17 1000 16 272,000.00 € 1700 7 202,300.00 €
Pumps 94 100 16 150,400.00 € 170 7 111,860.00 €
Compressors 3 500 16 24,000.00 € 850 7 17,850.00 €
Turbines 24 5000 16 1,920,000.00 € 8500 7 1,428,000.00 €
Valves 1462.5 80 40 4,680,000.00 € 120 20 3,510,000.00 €
Gear Boxes 5 1000 16 80,000.00 € 1700 7 59,500.00 €
Other equipment 22 500 16 176,000.00 € 850 7 130,900.00 €
0 0 0 24,761,600.00 € 0 0 18,445,690.00 €
24,761,600.00 € 18,445,690.00 €
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 8
Main result: savings + inspection plan
Current financial risk (€/year)
Future financial risk (€/year)o According to current practiceo No inspectiono With different inspection scenarios
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 9
Main result: savings + inspection plan
Current financial risk (€/year)
Future financial risk (€/year)o According to current practiceo No inspectiono With different inspection scenarios
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 10
Sample results: (optimized) SAFETY!
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 €
500,000 €
1,000,000 €
1,500,000 €
2,000,000 €
2,500,000 €
3,000,000 €
3,500,000 €
T-7
D-2
T-9
T-4
D-4
T-8
D-7
D-6
T-6
T-5
D-1
T-1
E-1A
/BE-
101/
BE-
2D-
5E-
101/
AE-
110
E-10
2T-
3D-
27A
D-27
BD-
27C
D-27
DD-
27E
D-27
FD-
28A
D-28
BD-
28C
D-28
DD-
28E
D-28
FD-
29A
D-29
BD-
29C
T-2
D-10
2T-
101
HP-1
HP-2 JI-1
JI-2
SP-1
D-30
0C1
A/B
(poti
s)C1
A/B
(usis
)C2
A/B
(poti
s)C2
A/B
(usis
)
In order to remove 90% of risk worth over 3,000,000 € it is enough to inspect only 15 out of over 100 components!
The question: Which 15?
The answer: RBI
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 11
Sample results: SAVE!
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 12
Main result: savings + inspection planSavings: Know what is NOT to be inspected
(€300,000)
(€200,000)
(€100,000)
€0
€100,000
€200,000
€300,000
Difference WITHOUT inspection
Difference WITH inspection
GainsGains
LossesLosses
Components with MAX gain in NPV when inspected
Components with practically NO gain in NPV when inspected
Component with LOSSES in NPV no matter inspected or
not
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 13
ONE System!!!
Network of NIS-Steinbeisprojects anddatabases
RiskNISRiskNIS ProjectRiskProjectRisk
LitigationDBLitigationDB ESPRiTESPRiT
EnvironNISEnvironNISiNTeg-Risk
iNTeg-RiskYet to be
developed: Asset Management
System!
Yet to be developed:
Asset Management System!
Steinbeis SystemCommon:
1.User management
2.Asset (plants!) management
3.Tools (risk!)
4.Interfaces (e.g. graphics, DBs, …)
5.System management
Steinbeis SystemCommon:
1.User management
2.Asset (plants!) management
3.Tools (risk!)
4.Interfaces (e.g. graphics, DBs, …)
5.System management
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 14
1. The project has “paid its costs”
2. For 2010: Inspect all of the plant best possible way (know better the starting point, inspections are not expensive)
3. After that – STOP unnecessary inspections at OPTIMUM!
4. Savings safety 5. Full control in the tool (e.g. when “playing” with
different scenarios)
5 Main conclusions
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 15
CONCLUSIONS – Positive balance
1. “Current balance sheet of the project”… The project has “paid its costs”
Investment Return Comment
Package A
530 k€ ESPRiT ~500 k€ 500 participant-course x 1000 € per participant-course
Package B
387 k€ iNTeg-Risk
310 k€ EU financing
Package B
Estimated savings
~1,400 k€ only pumps and inspections in 2 refineries, so far: further savings expected with the use in RNS and RNP
TOTAL 917 k€ TOTAL ~2,200 k€ BALANCE: ~ 1 300 000 € + other indirect benefits, so far
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 16
CONCLUSIONS – A clear indication (=optimum!) for/of future actions (=inspections!) needed
2. For 2010: Inspect all of the plant best possible way (know better the starting point, inspections are not expensive)
3. After that – STOP unnecessary inspections at OPTIMUM!
4. Savings safety
Savings
Inspection costs
Risk
Components
Savin
gs,
Cost
of
risk
(€
)
STEINBEIS ADVANCED RISK TECHNOLOGIES 17
CONCLUSIONS – Improved tool!Also for integration
5. Full control in the tool (e.g. when “playing” with different scenarios)