financial modeling chapter 2

Upload: kingkongs-fried-egg

Post on 04-Jun-2018

227 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    1/162

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    A B C

    Current share price, P0 60

    Current dividend, D0 3

    Anticipated dividend growth rate 12%

    Gordon model cost of equity, rE 17.60%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    2/162

    1

    23456

    789101112134344

    4546

    4748495051

    A B C

    Dividend growth rate, quarterly last 5 years 0.47%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    3/162

    1

    2

    34

    5

    6789

    10

    11

    12

    A B C

    Kellogg stock price, P0, 30 May 2006 48.28

    Current dividend Quarterly 0.278

    Annualized dividend, Div 0 1.112

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    4/162

    1

    2

    34

    5678910111213

    14

    15161718192021222324

    25

    26272829303132

    33343536373839

    4041

    42434445464748

    A B C D

    Year ending DividendsRepurchase of

    common stockStock issues

    31-Dec-95 827,000,000 322,000,000 -112,000,00031-Dec-96 974,000,000 412,000,000 -149,000,000

    31-Dec-97 1,137,000,000 628,000,000 -225,000,00031-Dec-98 1,305,000,000 930,000,000 -269,000,00031-Dec-99 1,479,000,000 840,000,000 -221,000,00031-Dec-00 1,724,000,000 973,000,000 -387,000,00031-Dec-01 2,047,000,000 2,570,000,000 -514,000,00031-Dec-02 2,381,000,000 6,538,000,000 -390,000,00031-Dec-03 2,746,000,000 1,183,000,000 -311,000,00031-Dec-04 3,251,000,000 1,384,000,000 -642,000,00031-Dec-05 3,793,000,000 1,717,000,000 -696,000,000

    End 2005 equity dataStock price 61.07Number of shares 3,119,842,000Equity value 190,528,750,940

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    5/162

    4950

    A B C D

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    6/162

    1

    2

    34

    5678910111213

    14

    15161718192021222324

    25

    26272829303132

    33343536373839

    4041

    42434445464748

    E F G H I J K L

    Cash flow to

    equity

    Year on year

    growth

    1,037,000,000

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    7/162

    4950

    E F G H I J K L, , ,

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    8/162

    1

    2

    34

    5678910111213

    14

    15161718192021222324

    25

    26272829303132

    33343536373839

    4041

    42434445464748

    M N

    005

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    9/162

    4950

    M N

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    10/162

    1

    2

    3

    45

    678

    910

    11

    121314

    15161718192021222324

    252627282930313233343536

    A B C D

    JNJ's stock price, P0,31 Dec 2005 61.07

    Current dividend

    Quarterly 0.33

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    11/162

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5678910

    11121314

    15

    161718

    19202122232425262728

    A B

    Current dividend, Div0 8.00

    Growth rate g1, years 1-m ("supernormal") 35%

    Growth rate g2, years 6 - 8%

    Number of supernormal growth years, m 5Cost of equity 18%

    Dividend valuationPV of supernormal growth years Using Excel NPV 60.99

    Check: Using book formula 60.99PV of normal growth years, after year 5 169.35Share value 230.33

    Year

    Anticipated

    dividend

    1 10.802 14.583 19.68

    4 26.575 35.876 38.747 41.848 45.199 48.8010 52.7111 56.9212 61.48etc. etc.

    THE GORDON MODEL

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    12/162

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5678910

    11121314

    15

    161718

    19202122232425262728

    C

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    13/162

    1

    234

    5678910111213

    14

    1516

    17

    18

    19

    20

    21

    2223242526

    2728

    29

    303132333435363738

    A B C D E

    Commonstock issued

    Total Dividendpayments

    Common

    stockrepurchased

    Total equitycash flow

    1991 16,462,000 150,730,000 1,215,000 135,483,0001992 29,717,000 170,756,000 31,197,000 172,236,000

    1993 24,961,000 191,488,000 98,804,000 265,331,0001994 25,339,000 210,503,000 52,908,000 238,072,0001995 24,115,000 235,495,000 65,032,000 276,412,0001996 25,826,000 254,458,000 376,716,000 605,348,0001997 59,281,000 327,303,000 532,682,000 800,704,0001998 80,375,000 381,798,000 531,122,000 832,545,0001999 59,478,000 418,447,000 634,623,000 993,592,000

    Compound growth rate 17.42% 13.61% 118.65% 28.28%

    End 1999 stock price 68.00

    Number of sharesoutstanding, end 1999 202,795,000

    Future dividend growth, g? 28.28%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    14/162

    3940414243

    444546

    474849505152535455

    56575859

    606162

    A B C D E

    1999 1998 1997 1996Common stock issued 59,478,000 80,375,000 59,281,000 25,826,000

    Dividend payments 418,447,000 381,798,000 327,303,000 254,458,000Common stock repurchased 634,623,000 531,122,000 532,682,000 376,716,000Total equity payout 1,112,548,000 993,295,000 919,266,000 657,000,000

    Number of sharesoutstandingend of year 202,795,000 205,058,000 198,290,000 167,255,000

    Dividends per share 2.06 1.86 1.65 1.52

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    15/162

    1

    234

    5678910111213

    14

    1516

    17

    18

    19

    20

    21

    2223242526

    2728

    29

    303132333435363738

    F G H

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    16/162

    3940414243

    444546

    474849505152535455

    56575859

    606162

    F G H

    1994 1993 199225,339,000 24,961,000 29,717,000

    210,503,000 191,488,000 170,756,00052,908,000 98,804,000 31,197,000288,750,000 315,253,000 231,670,000

    172,339,000 172,273,000 170,763,000

    1.22 1.11 1.00

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    17/162

    1

    234

    5678910111213

    14

    1516

    17

    18

    19

    20

    21

    2223242526

    2728

    29

    303132333435363738

    I

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    18/162

    3940414243

    444546

    474849505152535455

    56575859

    606162

    I

    199116,462,000

    150,730,0001,215,000168,407,000

    169,841,000

    0.89

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    19/162

    1

    2

    34

    56

    7

    8

    9

    A B C

    End-1999 equity value, P0 13,790,060,000

    End 1999 total equity payout 993,592,000

    High growth rate, ghigh 28.28%Number of high-growth years, m 3

    Normal growth rate, gnormal 4%

    Cost of equity, rEusing the function TwoStageGordon 17.251%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    20/162

    123

    4567891011

    121314151617181920

    2122232425262728

    2930

    313233343536373839

    40

    41424344707172

    A B C D E F

    Alpha -0.0029

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    21/162

    123

    4567891011

    121314151617181920

    2122232425262728

    2930

    313233343536373839

    40

    41424344707172

    G

    72)

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    22/162

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    23/162

    5051525354

    555657

    585960616263646566

    6768697071

    A B C D E F G H

    1-Apr-04 24.88 1107.30 -5.55% -1.69%3-May-04 27.64 1120.68 10.52% 1.20%1-Jun-04 26.72 1140.84 -3.39% 1.78%1-Jul-04 23.61 1101.72 -12.37% -3.49%

    2-Aug-04 20.65 1104.24 -13.40% 0.23%

    1-Sep-04 19.46 1114.58 -5.94% 0.93%1-Oct-04 21.59 1130.20 10.39% 1.39%1-Nov-04 21.74 1173.82 0.69% 3.79%

    1-Dec-04 22.73 1211.92 4.45% 3.19%3-Jan-05 21.81 1181.27 -4.13% -2.56%1-Feb-05 23.39 1203.60 6.99% 1.87%1-Mar-05 22.65 1180.59 -3.21% -1.93%1-Apr-05 22.93 1156.85 1.23% -2.03%

    2-May-05 26.38 1191.50 14.02% 2.95%1-Jun-05 25.46 1191.33 -3.55% -0.01%1-Jul-05 26.55 1234.18 4.19% 3.53%

    1-Aug-05 25.24 1220.33 -5.06% -1.13%

    1-Sep-05 24.19 1228.81 -4.25% 0.69%3-Oct-05 23.06 1207.01 -4.78% -1.79%1-Nov-05 26.27 1249.48 13.03% 3.46%1-Dec-05 24.57 1248.29 -6.69% -0.10%3-Jan-06 25.90 1285.45 5.27% 2.93%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    24/162

    123

    4567891011

    121314151617

    18

    192021222324252627

    28

    2930313233343536373839

    40

    414243444546474849

    I J K L

    Slope InterceptSlope --> 2.2516 -0.0029 0.2782 0.0120 0.5304 0.0927 65.5155 58.0000 0.5627 0.4982

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    25/162

    123456789

    101112131415

    166566

    6768697071727374

    75

    7677787980

    8182

    83848586

    87

    888990

    A B C D E F G

    Alpha -0.0029

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    26/162

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    27/162

    123456789

    101112131415

    166566

    6768697071727374

    75

    7677787980

    8182

    83848586

    87

    888990

    P

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    28/162

    12

    34

    5

    A B C

    Intel beta 2.2516

    Risk free rate, rf 4.93%Expected market return, E(rM) 9.98%

    Intel cost of equity, rE,Intel 16.31%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    29/162

    INTEL CORP 10-K 2005-12-31: Income Statement

    2005/12/31 2004/12/31Net revenue $38,826,000,000 $34,209,000,000Cost of sales $15,777,000,000 $14,463,000,000Gross margin $23,049,000,000 $19,746,000,000Research and development $5,145,000,000 $4,778,000,000Marketing, general and administrative $5,688,000,000 $4,659,000,000Impairment of goodwill $0 $0Amortization and impairment of acquisition-related $126,000,000 $179,000,000intangibles and costsPurchased in-process research and development $0 $0Operating expenses $10,959,000,000 $9,616,000,000Operating income $12,090,000,000 $10,130,000,000

    Losses on equity securities, net ($45,000,000) ($2,000,000)Interest and other, net $565,000,000 $289,000,000Income before taxes $12,610,000,000 $10,417,000,000Provision for taxes $3,946,000,000 $2,901,000,000

    Net income $8,664,000,000 $7,516,000,000Basic earnings per common share $1,420,000 $1,170,000Diluted earnings per common share $1,400,000 $1,160,000Weighted average common shares outstanding $6,106,000,000 $6,400,000,000Weighted average common shares outstanding, assumi $6,178,000,000 $6,494,000,000

    dilution

    Tax rate 31.29% 27.85%

    This data was extracted by EdgarScan from the PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Technology C

    Please read the on-line disclaimer at http://edgarscan.pwcglobal.com/EdgarScan/edgarscan_di

    COMPUTING INTEL'S TAX RATE

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    30/162

    2003/12/31$30,141,000,000$13,047,000,000$17,094,000,000$4,360,000,000$4,278,000,000

    $617,000,000$301,000,000

    $5,000,000$9,561,000,000$7,533,000,000

    ($283,000,000)$192,000,000

    $7,442,000,000$1,801,000,000

    $5,641,000,000$860,000$850,000

    $6,527,000,000$6,621,000,000

    24.20%

    entre.

    sclaimer.html

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    31/162

    12

    34

    5

    6

    A B C

    Intel beta 2.2516

    Intel tax rate, TC 31.29%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    32/162

    12345678

    9101112

    1314151617181920

    21222324

    252627282930

    313233343536

    373839

    404142434445

    A B C D

    Average monthly return 0.83%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    33/162

    4647484950

    515253

    545556575859606162

    63646566676869707172

    737475

    767778798081828384

    858687

    888990919293

    949596

    A B C D

    1-May-90 23.95 9.22%1-Jun-90 23.79 -0.67%2-Jul-90 23.71 -0.34%1-Aug-90 21.57 -9.46%4-Sep-90 20.51 -5.04%

    1-Oct-90 20.43 -0.39%1-Nov-90 21.74 6.21%3-Dec-90 22.33 2.68%

    2-Jan-91 23.30 4.25%1-Feb-91 24.96 6.88%1-Mar-91 25.56 2.38%1-Apr-91 25.61 0.20%1-May-91 26.70 4.17%3-Jun-91 25.49 -4.64%1-Jul-91 26.67 4.53%1-Aug-91 27.29 2.30%3-Sep-91 26.83 -1.70%

    1-Oct-91 27.19 1.33%1-Nov-91 26.10 -4.09%2-Dec-91 29.07 10.78%2-Jan-92 28.53 -1.88%3-Feb-92 28.89 1.25%2-Mar-92 28.33 -1.96%1-Apr-92 29.16 2.89%1-May-92 29.30 0.48%1-Jun-92 28.86 -1.51%1-Jul-92 30.03 3.97%

    3-Aug-92 29.41 -2.09%1-Sep-92 29.75 1.15%1-Oct-92 29.85 0.34%

    2-Nov-92 30.87 3.36%1-Dec-92 31.46 1.89%4-Jan-93 31.49 0.10%1-Feb-93 31.92 1.36%1-Mar-93 32.59 2.08%1-Apr-93 31.80 -2.45%3-May-93 32.64 2.61%1-Jun-93 32.73 0.28%1-Jul-93 32.59 -0.43%

    2-Aug-93 33.82 3.70%1-Sep-93 33.56 -0.77%1-Oct-93 34.25 2.04%

    1-Nov-93 33.91 -1.00%1-Dec-93 34.33 1.23%3-Jan-94 35.49 3.32%1-Feb-94 34.52 -2.77%1-Mar-94 33.01 -4.47%4-Apr-94 33.44 1.29%

    2-May-94 33.97 1.57%1-Jun-94 33.14 -2.47%1-Jul-94 34.23 3.24%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    34/162

    979899100101

    102103104

    105106107108109110111112113

    114115116117118119120121122123

    124125126

    127128129130131132133134135

    136137138

    139140141142143144

    145146147

    A B C D

    1-Aug-94 35.62 3.98%1-Sep-94 34.75 -2.47%3-Oct-94 35.53 2.22%1-Nov-94 34.23 -3.73%1-Dec-94 34.73 1.45%

    3-Jan-95 35.63 2.56%1-Feb-95 37.01 3.80%1-Mar-95 38.10 2.90%

    3-Apr-95 39.22 2.90%1-May-95 40.78 3.90%1-Jun-95 41.72 2.28%3-Jul-95 43.10 3.25%1-Aug-95 43.21 0.25%1-Sep-95 45.03 4.13%2-Oct-95 44.87 -0.36%1-Nov-95 46.83 4.28%1-Dec-95 47.74 1.92%

    2-Jan-96 49.35 3.32%1-Feb-96 49.81 0.93%1-Mar-96 50.30 0.98%1-Apr-96 51.03 1.44%1-May-96 52.33 2.52%3-Jun-96 52.53 0.38%1-Jul-96 50.21 -4.52%1-Aug-96 51.26 2.07%3-Sep-96 54.13 5.45%1-Oct-96 55.62 2.72%

    1-Nov-96 59.83 7.30%2-Dec-96 58.65 -1.99%2-Jan-97 62.31 6.05%

    3-Feb-97 62.80 0.78%3-Mar-97 60.20 -4.23%1-Apr-97 63.79 5.79%1-May-97 67.67 5.90%2-Jun-97 70.68 4.35%1-Jul-97 76.31 7.66%1-Aug-97 72.03 -5.77%2-Sep-97 75.97 5.33%1-Oct-97 73.43 -3.40%

    3-Nov-97 76.80 4.49%1-Dec-97 78.11 1.69%2-Jan-98 78.98 1.11%

    2-Feb-98 84.66 6.94%2-Mar-98 88.98 4.98%1-Apr-98 89.88 1.01%1-May-98 88.31 -1.76%1-Jun-98 91.91 4.00%1-Jul-98 90.94 -1.06%

    3-Aug-98 77.78 -15.63%1-Sep-98 82.76 6.21%1-Oct-98 89.52 7.85%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    35/162

    148149150151152

    153154155

    156157158159160161162163164

    165166167168169170171172173174

    175176177

    178179180181182183184185186

    187188189

    190191192193194195

    196197198

    A B C D

    2-Nov-98 94.95 5.89%1-Dec-98 100.47 5.65%4-Jan-99 104.69 4.11%1-Feb-99 101.42 -3.17%1-Mar-99 105.47 3.92%

    1-Apr-99 109.53 3.78%3-May-99 106.91 -2.42%1-Jun-99 112.85 5.41%

    1-Jul-99 109.32 -3.18%2-Aug-99 108.78 -0.50%1-Sep-99 105.80 -2.78%1-Oct-99 112.49 6.13%1-Nov-99 114.77 2.01%1-Dec-99 121.64 5.81%3-Jan-00 115.52 -5.16%1-Feb-00 113.32 -1.92%1-Mar-00 124.38 9.31%

    3-Apr-00 120.64 -3.05%1-May-00 118.18 -2.06%1-Jun-00 121.12 2.46%3-Jul-00 119.31 -1.51%1-Aug-00 126.70 6.01%1-Sep-00 120.00 -5.43%2-Oct-00 119.48 -0.43%1-Nov-00 110.07 -8.20%1-Dec-00 110.63 0.51%2-Jan-01 114.55 3.48%

    1-Feb-01 104.09 -9.58%1-Mar-01 97.46 -6.58%2-Apr-01 105.04 7.49%

    1-May-01 105.72 0.65%1-Jun-01 103.13 -2.48%2-Jul-01 102.10 -1.00%1-Aug-01 95.70 -6.47%4-Sep-01 87.95 -8.44%1-Oct-01 89.61 1.87%1-Nov-01 96.47 7.38%3-Dec-01 97.32 0.88%2-Jan-02 95.88 -1.49%

    1-Feb-02 94.03 -1.95%1-Mar-02 97.55 3.68%1-Apr-02 91.62 -6.27%

    1-May-02 90.93 -0.76%3-Jun-02 84.44 -7.40%1-Jul-02 77.92 -8.04%1-Aug-02 78.43 0.65%3-Sep-02 69.89 -11.53%1-Oct-02 76.03 8.42%

    1-Nov-02 80.71 5.97%2-Dec-02 75.74 -6.36%2-Jan-03 73.76 -2.65%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    36/162

    199200201202203

    204205206

    207208209210211212213214215

    216217218219220221222223224225

    226227228

    229230231232233234235236237

    238239240

    241

    A B C D

    3-Feb-03 72.64 -1.53%3-Mar-03 73.33 0.95%1-Apr-03 79.38 7.93%1-May-03 83.56 5.13%2-Jun-03 84.61 1.25%

    1-Jul-03 86.09 1.73%1-Aug-03 87.75 1.91%2-Sep-03 86.81 -1.08%

    1-Oct-03 91.71 5.49%3-Nov-03 92.50 0.86%1-Dec-03 97.33 5.09%2-Jan-04 99.10 1.80%2-Feb-04 100.47 1.37%1-Mar-04 98.95 -1.52%1-Apr-04 97.39 -1.59%3-May-04 98.71 1.35%1-Jun-04 100.61 1.91%

    1-Jul-04 97.28 -3.37%2-Aug-04 97.65 0.38%1-Sep-04 98.69 1.06%1-Oct-04 100.19 1.51%1-Nov-04 104.24 3.96%1-Dec-04 107.78 3.34%3-Jan-05 105.14 -2.48%1-Feb-05 107.34 2.07%1-Mar-05 105.45 -1.78%1-Apr-05 103.43 -1.93%

    2-May-05 106.71 3.12%1-Jun-05 106.84 0.12%1-Jul-05 110.80 3.64%

    1-Aug-05 109.79 -0.92%1-Sep-05 110.66 0.79%3-Oct-05 108.80 -1.70%1-Nov-05 112.90 3.70%1-Dec-05 112.92 0.02%3-Jan-06 115.91 2.61%1-Feb-06 116.21 0.26%1-Mar-06 117.65 1.23%3-Apr-06 119.22 1.33%

    1-May-06 115.76 -2.95%1-Jun-06 115.91 0.13%3-Jul-06 116.61 0.60%

    1-Aug-06 119.37 2.34%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    37/162

    1234567

    8

    91011121314151617181920

    212223

    24252627282930

    3132333435

    36373839

    4041424344

    A B C D E

    Average monthly risk premium 0.46%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    38/162

    4546474849

    505152

    535455565758596061

    62636465666768697071

    727374

    757677787980818283

    848586

    878889909192

    939495

    A B C D E

    2-Apr-90 21.84 -2.53% 0.66% -3.19%1-May-90 23.95 9.22% 0.65% 8.58%1-Jun-90 23.79 -0.67% 0.65% -1.32%2-Jul-90 23.71 -0.34% 0.64% -0.98%1-Aug-90 21.57 -9.46% 0.64% -10.09%

    4-Sep-90 20.51 -5.04% 0.62% -5.66%1-Oct-90 20.43 -0.39% 0.61% -1.00%1-Nov-90 21.74 6.21% 0.60% 5.62%

    3-Dec-90 22.33 2.68% 0.59% 2.09%2-Jan-91 23.3 4.25% 0.56% 3.69%1-Feb-91 24.96 6.88% 0.52% 6.36%1-Mar-91 25.56 2.38% 0.50% 1.88%1-Apr-91 25.61 0.20% 0.49% -0.30%1-May-91 26.7 4.17% 0.47% 3.70%3-Jun-91 25.49 -4.64% 0.46% -5.09%1-Jul-91 26.67 4.53% 0.46% 4.06%1-Aug-91 27.29 2.30% 0.47% 1.83%

    3-Sep-91 26.83 -1.70% 0.44% -2.14%1-Oct-91 27.19 1.33% 0.44% 0.90%1-Nov-91 26.1 -4.09% 0.42% -4.51%2-Dec-91 29.07 10.78% 0.38% 10.40%2-Jan-92 28.53 -1.88% 0.34% -2.21%3-Feb-92 28.89 1.25% 0.32% 0.94%2-Mar-92 28.33 -1.96% 0.32% -2.28%1-Apr-92 29.16 2.89% 0.34% 2.55%1-May-92 29.3 0.48% 0.31% 0.17%1-Jun-92 28.86 -1.51% 0.30% -1.82%

    1-Jul-92 30.03 3.97% 0.31% 3.67%3-Aug-92 29.41 -2.09% 0.27% -2.35%1-Sep-92 29.75 1.15% 0.26% 0.89%

    1-Oct-92 29.85 0.34% 0.24% 0.09%2-Nov-92 30.87 3.36% 0.24% 3.12%1-Dec-92 31.46 1.89% 0.26% 1.63%4-Jan-93 31.49 0.10% 0.27% -0.17%1-Feb-93 31.92 1.36% 0.25% 1.11%1-Mar-93 32.59 2.08% 0.24% 1.83%1-Apr-93 31.8 -2.45% 0.25% -2.70%3-May-93 32.64 2.61% 0.24% 2.37%1-Jun-93 32.73 0.28% 0.25% 0.03%

    1-Jul-93 32.59 -0.43% 0.26% -0.68%2-Aug-93 33.82 3.70% 0.25% 3.45%1-Sep-93 33.56 -0.77% 0.25% -1.02%

    1-Oct-93 34.25 2.04% 0.25% 1.79%1-Nov-93 33.91 -1.00% 0.25% -1.25%1-Dec-93 34.33 1.23% 0.26% 0.97%3-Jan-94 35.49 3.32% 0.26% 3.07%1-Feb-94 34.52 -2.77% 0.25% -3.02%1-Mar-94 33.01 -4.47% 0.27% -4.74%

    4-Apr-94 33.44 1.29% 0.29% 1.00%2-May-94 33.97 1.57% 0.31% 1.27%1-Jun-94 33.14 -2.47% 0.35% -2.82%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    39/162

    96979899100

    101102103

    104105106107108109110111112

    113114115116117118119120121122

    123124125

    126127128129130131132133134

    135136137

    138139140141142143

    144145146

    A B C D E

    1-Jul-94 34.23 3.24% 0.35% 2.89%1-Aug-94 35.62 3.98% 0.36% 3.62%1-Sep-94 34.75 -2.47% 0.37% -2.85%3-Oct-94 35.53 2.22% 0.39% 1.83%1-Nov-94 34.23 -3.73% 0.41% -4.14%

    1-Dec-94 34.73 1.45% 0.44% 1.01%3-Jan-95 35.63 2.56% 0.47% 2.09%1-Feb-95 37.01 3.80% 0.48% 3.32%

    1-Mar-95 38.1 2.90% 0.48% 2.42%3-Apr-95 39.22 2.90% 0.48% 2.42%1-May-95 40.78 3.90% 0.47% 3.43%1-Jun-95 41.72 2.28% 0.47% 1.81%3-Jul-95 43.1 3.25% 0.46% 2.80%1-Aug-95 43.21 0.25% 0.45% -0.20%1-Sep-95 45.03 4.13% 0.45% 3.68%2-Oct-95 44.87 -0.36% 0.44% -0.80%1-Nov-95 46.83 4.28% 0.44% 3.84%

    1-Dec-95 47.74 1.92% 0.45% 1.48%2-Jan-96 49.35 3.32% 0.43% 2.89%1-Feb-96 49.81 0.93% 0.42% 0.51%1-Mar-96 50.3 0.98% 0.40% 0.58%1-Apr-96 51.03 1.44% 0.41% 1.03%1-May-96 52.33 2.52% 0.41% 2.10%3-Jun-96 52.53 0.38% 0.42% -0.04%1-Jul-96 50.21 -4.52% 0.42% -4.94%1-Aug-96 51.26 2.07% 0.43% 1.64%3-Sep-96 54.13 5.45% 0.42% 5.03%

    1-Oct-96 55.62 2.72% 0.42% 2.29%1-Nov-96 59.83 7.30% 0.42% 6.88%2-Dec-96 58.65 -1.99% 0.42% -2.41%

    2-Jan-97 62.31 6.05% 0.41% 5.64%3-Feb-97 62.8 0.78% 0.42% 0.36%3-Mar-97 60.2 -4.23% 0.42% -4.65%1-Apr-97 63.79 5.79% 0.43% 5.36%1-May-97 67.67 5.90% 0.43% 5.47%2-Jun-97 70.68 4.35% 0.42% 3.93%1-Jul-97 76.31 7.66% 0.41% 7.25%1-Aug-97 72.03 -5.77% 0.42% -6.19%2-Sep-97 75.97 5.33% 0.43% 4.90%

    1-Oct-97 73.43 -3.40% 0.41% -3.81%3-Nov-97 76.8 4.49% 0.41% 4.07%1-Dec-97 78.11 1.69% 0.43% 1.26%

    2-Jan-98 78.98 1.11% 0.43% 0.68%2-Feb-98 84.66 6.94% 0.42% 6.52%2-Mar-98 88.98 4.98% 0.42% 4.55%1-Apr-98 89.88 1.01% 0.42% 0.59%1-May-98 88.31 -1.76% 0.41% -2.17%1-Jun-98 91.91 4.00% 0.42% 3.58%

    1-Jul-98 90.94 -1.06% 0.42% -1.48%3-Aug-98 77.78 -15.63% 0.41% -16.04%1-Sep-98 82.76 6.21% 0.41% 5.80%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    40/162

    147148149150151

    152153154

    155156157158159160161162163

    164165166167168169170171172173

    174175176

    177178179180181182183184185

    186187188

    189190191192193194

    195196197

    A B C D E

    1-Oct-98 89.52 7.85% 0.38% 7.47%2-Nov-98 94.95 5.89% 0.33% 5.56%1-Dec-98 100.47 5.65% 0.37% 5.28%4-Jan-99 104.69 4.11% 0.37% 3.75%1-Feb-99 101.42 -3.17% 0.36% -3.53%

    1-Mar-99 105.47 3.92% 0.37% 3.55%1-Apr-99 109.53 3.78% 0.37% 3.41%3-May-99 106.91 -2.42% 0.36% -2.78%

    1-Jun-99 112.85 5.41% 0.38% 5.03%1-Jul-99 109.32 -3.18% 0.38% -3.56%2-Aug-99 108.78 -0.50% 0.38% -0.87%1-Sep-99 105.8 -2.78% 0.39% -3.17%1-Oct-99 112.49 6.13% 0.39% 5.74%1-Nov-99 114.77 2.01% 0.41% 1.60%1-Dec-99 121.64 5.81% 0.42% 5.39%3-Jan-00 115.52 -5.16% 0.43% -5.60%1-Feb-00 113.32 -1.92% 0.44% -2.37%

    1-Mar-00 124.38 9.31% 0.46% 8.85%3-Apr-00 120.64 -3.05% 0.47% -3.53%1-May-00 118.18 -2.06% 0.47% -2.53%1-Jun-00 121.12 2.46% 0.48% 1.97%3-Jul-00 119.31 -1.51% 0.47% -1.98%1-Aug-00 126.7 6.01% 0.50% 5.51%1-Sep-00 120 -5.43% 0.51% -5.94%2-Oct-00 119.48 -0.43% 0.50% -0.93%1-Nov-00 110.07 -8.20% 0.51% -8.71%1-Dec-00 110.63 0.51% 0.51% -0.01%

    2-Jan-01 114.55 3.48% 0.48% 3.00%1-Feb-01 104.09 -9.58% 0.43% -10.00%1-Mar-01 97.46 -6.58% 0.41% -6.99%

    2-Apr-01 105.04 7.49% 0.37% 7.12%1-May-01 105.72 0.65% 0.32% 0.32%1-Jun-01 103.13 -2.48% 0.30% -2.78%2-Jul-01 102.1 -1.00% 0.29% -1.29%1-Aug-01 95.7 -6.47% 0.29% -6.77%4-Sep-01 87.95 -8.44% 0.28% -8.72%1-Oct-01 89.61 1.87% 0.22% 1.65%1-Nov-01 96.47 7.38% 0.18% 7.20%3-Dec-01 97.32 0.88% 0.16% 0.72%

    2-Jan-02 95.88 -1.49% 0.14% -1.63%1-Feb-02 94.03 -1.95% 0.14% -2.09%1-Mar-02 97.55 3.68% 0.14% 3.53%

    1-Apr-02 91.62 -6.27% 0.15% -6.42%1-May-02 90.93 -0.76% 0.14% -0.90%3-Jun-02 84.44 -7.40% 0.14% -7.55%1-Jul-02 77.92 -8.04% 0.14% -8.18%1-Aug-02 78.43 0.65% 0.14% 0.51%3-Sep-02 69.89 -11.53% 0.14% -11.66%

    1-Oct-02 76.03 8.42% 0.14% 8.28%1-Nov-02 80.71 5.97% 0.13% 5.84%2-Dec-02 75.74 -6.36% 0.10% -6.46%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    41/162

    198199200201202

    203204205

    206207208209210211212213214

    215216217218219220221222223224

    225226227

    228229230231232233234235236

    237238239

    240241

    A B C D E

    2-Jan-03 73.76 -2.65% 0.10% -2.75%3-Feb-03 72.64 -1.53% 0.10% -1.63%3-Mar-03 73.33 0.95% 0.10% 0.85%1-Apr-03 79.38 7.93% 0.09% 7.83%1-May-03 83.56 5.13% 0.09% 5.04%

    2-Jun-03 84.61 1.25% 0.09% 1.16%1-Jul-03 86.09 1.73% 0.08% 1.66%1-Aug-03 87.75 1.91% 0.08% 1.83%

    2-Sep-03 86.81 -1.08% 0.08% -1.16%1-Oct-03 91.71 5.49% 0.08% 5.41%3-Nov-03 92.5 0.86% 0.08% 0.78%1-Dec-03 97.33 5.09% 0.08% 5.01%2-Jan-04 99.1 1.80% 0.08% 1.73%2-Feb-04 100.47 1.37% 0.07% 1.30%1-Mar-04 98.95 -1.52% 0.08% -1.60%1-Apr-04 97.39 -1.59% 0.08% -1.67%3-May-04 98.71 1.35% 0.08% 1.27%

    1-Jun-04 100.61 1.91% 0.09% 1.82%1-Jul-04 97.28 -3.37% 0.11% -3.47%2-Aug-04 97.65 0.38% 0.11% 0.27%1-Sep-04 98.69 1.06% 0.12% 0.94%1-Oct-04 100.19 1.51% 0.14% 1.37%1-Nov-04 104.24 3.96% 0.15% 3.82%1-Dec-04 107.78 3.34% 0.17% 3.17%3-Jan-05 105.14 -2.48% 0.18% -2.66%1-Feb-05 107.34 2.07% 0.19% 1.88%1-Mar-05 105.45 -1.78% 0.21% -1.99%

    1-Apr-05 103.43 -1.93% 0.23% -2.16%2-May-05 106.71 3.12% 0.23% 2.89%1-Jun-05 106.84 0.12% 0.24% -0.11%

    1-Jul-05 110.8 3.64% 0.25% 3.39%1-Aug-05 109.79 -0.92% 0.27% -1.18%1-Sep-05 110.66 0.79% 0.29% 0.50%3-Oct-05 108.8 -1.70% 0.29% -1.98%1-Nov-05 112.9 3.70% 0.31% 3.39%1-Dec-05 112.92 0.02% 0.32% -0.31%3-Jan-06 115.91 2.61% 0.32% 2.29%1-Feb-06 116.21 0.26% 0.35% -0.09%1-Mar-06 117.65 1.23% 0.37% 0.86%

    3-Apr-06 119.22 1.33% 0.38% 0.95%1-May-06 115.76 -2.95% 0.38% -3.33%1-Jun-06 115.91 0.13% 0.39% -0.26%

    3-Jul-06 116.61 0.60% 0.40% 0.20%1-Aug-06 119.37 2.34% 0.41% 1.93%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    42/162

    1234567

    8

    91011121314151617181920

    212223

    24252627282930

    3132333435

    36373839

    4041424344

    F

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    43/162

    12

    34

    5

    6

    789

    10

    A B C

    Intel beta 2.2516

    Historical market risk premium 5.50%Intel tax rate, TC 31.29%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    44/162

    12

    34

    5

    678

    9

    10

    11

    121314

    15

    A B

    Market price/earnings multiple, August 2006 17

    Equity cash flow payout ratio 50.00%Anticipated growth of market equity cash flow 6.00%

    Expected market return, E(rM) 9.12%

    Intel cost of equity calculationsIntel beta 2.2516

    Intel tax rate, TC 31.29%

    Risk free rate, rf 4.93%

    Intel cost of equity, rE,Intel Classic CAPM 14.36% Tax-adjusted CAPM 16.29%

    COMPUTING THE COST OF EQUITY FOR I

    PRICE/EARNINGS MULTIPLE T

    Note: Price/Earnings ratio for S&P 500 from http://www.bullandbe

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    45/162

    12

    34

    5

    678

    9

    10

    11

    121314

    15

    C

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    46/162

    1

    23456

    789101112131415

    1617

    18192021222324252627

    A B C

    2005/12/31 2004/12/31Cash and cash equivalents 316,000,000 282,000,000

    Short-term borrowings 805,000,000 1,818,000,000Current portion of long-term debt 1,268,000,000 750,000,000

    Due to Altria Group, Inc. and affiliates 652,000,000 227,000,000Long-term debt 8,475,000,000 9,723,000,000

    Interest and other debt expense, net 636,000,000 666,000,000

    Net debt 10,884,000,000 12,236,000,000Net interest cost 5.50%

    Total debt 11,200,000,000 12,518,000,000

    Cash paid: Interest 679,000,000 633,000,000

    Interest cost 5.73%

    Note: Altria debt is priced at LIBOR (from financial statements)

    COMPUTING THE COST OF DEBT FOR

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    47/162

    1

    23456

    789101112131415

    1617

    18192021222324252627

    D

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    48/162

    Type Issuer Price Coupon(%) Maturity YTM(%)

    Corp PANHANDLE EASTN PIPE LINE CO 100.29 2.75 15-Mar-07 2.24%Corp SAFEWAY INC 104.75 9.875 15-Mar-07 1.62%Corp WEYERHAEUSER CO 102.35 6.125 15-Mar-07 2.03%Corp CONSTELLATION ENERGY GROUP INC 102.35 6.35 1-Apr-07 2.53%Corp PENNEY J C INC 103.1 7.6 1-Apr-07 2.56%

    Corp MOHAWK INDS INC 102.61 6.5 15-Apr-07 2.50%Corp PROGRESS ENERGY INC 102.26 6.05 15-Apr-07 2.59%Corp AOL TIME WARNER INC 102.34 6.15 1-May-07 2.78%Corp ARAMARK SVCS INC 102.77 7 1-May-07 3.01%Corp BANK UTD CORP 104.32 8.875 1-May-07 2.67%Corp COMCAST CABLE COMMUNICATIONS 103.96 8.375 1-May-07 2.68%Corp STARWOOD HOTELS&RESORTS WRLDWD 103 7.375 1-May-07 3.05%

    Corp VIACOM INC 101.9 5.625 1-May-07 2.89%Corp REALTY INCOME CORP 103.41 7.75 6-May-07 2.94%

    Corp CIGNA CORP 103.31 7.4 15-May-07 2.88%Corp TELUS CORP 103.58 7.5 1-Jun-07 2.87%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 102.98 6.763 15-Jun-07 3.08%Corp POTASH CORP SASK INC 103.25 7.125 15-Jun-07 3.11%Corp VORNADO RLTY TR 102.04 5.625 15-Jun-07 3.10%Corp KENTUCKY POWER CO 102.06 5.5 1-Jul-07 3.08%Corp AVALONBAY CMNTYS INC MTN BE 101.45 5 1-Aug-07 3.44%Corp ARCHSTONE SMITH TR 101.62 5 15-Aug-07 3.33%Corp BANK OKLA N A TULSA 103.54 7.125 15-Aug-07 3.48%Corp LIBERTY PPTY LTD PARTNERSHIP 103.56 7.25 15-Aug-07 3.57%

    Corp MASCO CORP 101.15 4.625 15-Aug-07 3.44%Corp RAYTHEON CO 103.09 6.75 15-Aug-07 3.56%Corp TIME WARNER COMPANIES INC 104.45 8.18 15-Aug-07 3.59%Corp TANDY CORP 103.33 6.95 1-Sep-07 3.66%Corp ICI WILMINGTON INC 103.27 7.05 15-Sep-07 3.92%Corp PHH CORP INTERNOTES BOOK ENTRY 101.9 5.6 15-Sep-07 3.78%Corp OCEAN ENERGY INC DEL 100.82 4.375 1-Oct-07 3.62%Corp USA WASTE SVCS INC 103.58 7.125 1-Oct-07 3.83%Corp CALENERGY INC 104.21 7.63 15-Oct-07 3.88%Corp ENTERPRISE PRODS OPER LP 100.15 4 15-Oct-07 3.87%Corp POTOMAC ELEC PWR CO 102.73 6.25 15-Oct-07 3.82%

    Corp ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD 103.13 7 15-Oct-07 4.20%Corp UNION PAC CORP 103.99 5.75 15-Oct-07 2.24%Corp CVS CORP 100.01 3.875 1-Nov-07 3.87%Corp ENSCO INTL INC 103.33 6.75 15-Nov-07 3.97%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 104.56 7.75 15-Nov-07 3.96%Corp MALLINCKRODT GROUP INC 103.1 6.5 15-Nov-07 3.92%Corp MEDIAONE GROUP INC MTN BE 103.02 6.83 15-Nov-07 4.30%Corp UNION CAMP CORP 103.04 6.5 15-Nov-07 3.97%Corp PSEG FDG TR I 101.57 5.381 16-Nov-07 4.07%Corp PLATINUM UNDERWRITERS FIN INC 102.17 6.371 16-Nov-07 4.55%

    YAHOO: NON-CALLABLE BBB CORPORATE BONDS WITH MAT

    11 August 2006

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    49/162

    Corp GENERAL MLS INC 99.89 3.875 30-Nov-07 3.96%Corp LILLY INDS INC 104.46 7.75 1-Dec-07 4.16%Corp AMERICAN FINL GROUP INC OHIO 103.81 7.125 15-Dec-07 4.14%

    Corp PENNEY JC INC MTN BE 102.92 6.5 15-Dec-07 4.21%Corp PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP 103.64 6.75 15-Dec-07 3.91%Corp NEWS AMER INC 103.56 6.625 9-Jan-08 3.97%

    Corp CNA FINL CORP 103.02 6.45 15-Jan-08 4.22%Corp CENTURY TEL ENTERPRISES INC 102.83 6.3 15-Jan-08 4.21%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 100.42 4.625 15-Jan-08 4.31%Corp SARA LEE CORP MTN BE 102.38 6 15-Jan-08 4.24%Corp TIME WARNER COMPANIES INC 104.42 7.48 15-Jan-08 4.22%Corp AMERICAN STD INC 104.21 7.375 1-Feb-08 4.35%Corp CONSUMERS ENERGY CO 102.98 6.375 1-Feb-08 4.24%Corp UNION PAC CORP 103.52 6.625 1-Feb-08 4.11%

    Corp ARAMARK SVCS INC 102.38 6.375 15-Feb-08 4.71%Corp AVNET INC 107.51 9.75 15-Feb-08 4.50%Corp DOMINION RES INC VA NEW 100.19 4.125 15-Feb-08 4.00%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 103.55 6.75 15-Feb-08 4.27%

    Corp IDEX CORP 103.42 6.875 15-Feb-08 4.48%Corp LENFEST COMMUNICATIONS INC 104.77 7.625 15-Feb-08 4.30%Corp MARSH & MCLENNAN COS INC 99.34 3.625 15-Feb-08 4.08%Corp PEMEX PROJ FDG MASTER TR 106.23 8.5 15-Feb-08 4.16%Corp TANGER PPTYS LTD PARTNERSHIP 106.63 9.125 15-Feb-08 4.49%Corp HOSPITALITY PPTYS TR 103.96 7 1-Mar-08 4.31%

    Corp KROGER CO 103.13 6.375 1-Mar-08 4.25%Corp UNITED DOMINION RLTY TR MTNSBE 100.27 4.5 3-Mar-08 4.32%Corp BECKMAN COULTER INC 104.68 7.45 4-Mar-08 4.29%Corp ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD 103.5 6.75 15-Mar-08 4.43%Corp GREATER BAY BANCORP 101.06 5.25 31-Mar-08 4.56%Corp CAROLINA PWR & LT CO MTN BE 103.6 6.65 1-Apr-08 4.32%Corp FORTUNE BRANDS INC 103.04 6.25 1-Apr-08 4.29%

    Corp GOODRICH CORP 104.81 7.5 15-Apr-08 4.46%Corp PROLOGIS 104.35 7.1 15-Apr-08 4.35%Corp APPALACHIAN PWR CO 98.75 3.6 15-May-08 4.35%Corp BERKLEY W R CORP 108.8 9.875 15-May-08 4.56%

    Corp DOMINION RES INC VA NEW 102.21 5.687 15-May-08 4.37%Corp MIDAMERICAN ENERGY HLDGS NEW 98.2 3.5 15-May-08 4.58%Corp TRW INC SR MEDTERMNTS BK EN 103.28 6.3 15-May-08 4.32%Corp DUKE RLTY LTD PARTNERSHIP 103.98 6.75 30-May-08 4.41%Corp AAG HLDG INC 103.77 6.875 1-Jun-08 4.65%Corp CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC 102.14 5.875 1-Jun-08 4.61%Corp NORTHEAST UTILS 98.14 3.3 1-Jun-08 4.39%Corp ARCHSTONE-SMITH OPER TR 97.26 3 15-Jun-08 4.58%

    Corp SARA LEE CORP MTN BE 102.61 6.15 19-Jun-08 4.65%Corp PHILIP MORRIS COS INC 105.5 7.65 1-Jul-08 4.55%Corp CAPITAL ONE FINL CORP 104.69 7.125 1-Aug-08 4.59%Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 103.27 6.4 1-Aug-08 4.63%Corp MILLER BREWING CO 99.53 4.25 15-Aug-08 4.50%Corp PENNEY J C INC 106 7.375 15-Aug-08 4.21%Corp CONTINENTAL CABLEVISION INC 108.37 9 1-Sep-08 4.65%Corp TIME WARNER ENTMT CO LP 105.12 7.25 1-Sep-08 4.59%Corp BALT GAS & ELEC CO MTN BE BONY 102.24 5.78 1-Oct-08 4.66%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    50/162

    Corp CADBURY SCHWEPPES US FINANACE 98.66 3.875 1-Oct-08 4.55%Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 98.17 3.875 1-Oct-08 4.79%Corp TRIBUNE CO MTN BK MONT TR CO 101.08 5.5 6-Oct-08 4.96%

    Corp MASCO CORP 102.07 5.75 15-Oct-08 4.73%Corp RAYCHEM CORP DEL 105.11 7.2 15-Oct-08 4.68%Corp UNIVISION COMMUNICATIONS INC 97.91 3.875 15-Oct-08 4.90%

    Corp NEWS AMER HLDGS INC 105.5 7.375 17-Oct-08 4.67%Corp CHANCELLOR MEDIA CORP LA 106.18 8 1-Nov-08 5.00%Corp MAY DEPT STORES CO 102.61 5.95 1-Nov-08 4.69%Corp UNION PAC CORP 105.55 7.25 1-Nov-08 4.57%Corp WEYERHAEUSER CO 103.01 5.95 1-Nov-08 4.50%Corp ALTRIA GROUP INC 101.96 5.625 4-Nov-08 4.68%Corp COMCAST CABLE COMMUNICATIONS 103.31 6.2 15-Nov-08 4.63%Corp SPRINT CAP CORP 103.2 6.125 15-Nov-08 4.61%

    Corp TELECOM ITALIA CAP 98.55 4 15-Nov-08 4.69%Corp WASTE MGMT INC DEL 103.98 6.5 15-Nov-08 4.61%Corp HALLIBURTON CO MTN BE 102.12 5.625 1-Dec-08 4.64%Corp LUBRIZOL CORP 102.14 5.875 1-Dec-08 4.87%

    Corp TRIBUNE CO MTN BK MONT TR CO 101.26 5.67 8-Dec-08 5.08%Corp CNA FINL CORP 103.79 6.6 15-Dec-08 4.85%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP EOP 98.2 4 15-Dec-08 4.82%Corp OAKMONT ASSET TR 98.51 4.514 22-Dec-08 5.19%Corp D R HORTON INC 100 5 15-Jan-09 5.00%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 104.43 6.8 15-Jan-09 4.83%

    Corp VALASSIS COMMUNICATIONS INC 103.38 6.625 15-Jan-09 5.12%Corp D R HORTON INC 106.5 8 1-Feb-09 5.15%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP EOP 97.69 4.1 15-Feb-09 5.09%Corp CONSUMERS ENERGY CO 100.05 4.8 17-Feb-09 4.78%Corp BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING GROUP 104.77 6.875 23-Feb-09 4.84%Corp LENNAR CORP 106 7.625 1-Mar-09 5.08%Corp PPL CAP FDG INC 98.92 4.33 1-Mar-09 4.78%

    Corp SOUTHWESTERN PUB SVC CO 103.55 6.2 1-Mar-09 4.70%Corp BURLINGTON NORTHN SANTA FE CP 103.58 6.125 15-Mar-09 4.63%Corp COLONIAL BK MONTGOMERY ALA 107.31 8 15-Mar-09 4.94%Corp MACK-CALI RLTY L P 106.04 7.25 15-Mar-09 4.73%

    Corp PSEG PWR LLC 97.58 3.75 1-Apr-09 4.74%Corp PENNSYLVANIA ELEC CO 103.09 6.125 1-Apr-09 4.85%Corp UNION CARBIDE CORP 102.99 6.7 1-Apr-09 5.46%Corp AMERICAN FINL GROUP INC OHIO 105.64 7.125 15-Apr-09 4.84%Corp DTE ENERGY CO 104.24 6.65 15-Apr-09 4.93%Corp UNION PAC RES GROUP INC 106.02 7.3 15-Apr-09 4.86%Corp NIPSCO CAP MKTS INC MTN BE 106.73 7.72 17-Apr-09 4.99%Corp ASHLAND INC MTN BE 105.38 6.86 1-May-09 4.72%

    Corp GENERAL AMERICAN TRANS CORP 104.7 6.75 1-May-09 4.87%Corp SPIEKER PPTYS L P 105.94 7.25 1-May-09 4.88%Corp SPRINT CAP CORP 103.97 6.375 1-May-09 4.79%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 97.78 4.25 15-May-09 5.13%Corp SEMPRA ENERGY 99.84 4.75 15-May-09 4.81%Corp GATX FINL CORP 109.44 8.875 1-Jun-09 5.19%Corp MARSH & MCLENNAN COS INC 105.77 7.125 15-Jun-09 4.91%Corp UNITED DOMINION REALTY TR INC 103.96 6.5 15-Jun-09 4.98%Corp WILLAMETTE INDS INC MTN BE 104.17 6.45 18-Jun-09 4.86%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    51/162

    Corp BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING GROUP 108.86 8.2 15-Jul-09 4.89%Corp MAY DEPT STORES CO 99.77 4.8 15-Jul-09 4.88%Corp PUBLIC SERVICE CO COLO 105.28 6.875 15-Jul-09 4.91%

    Corp PULTE HOMES INC 99.27 4.875 15-Jul-09 5.15%Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 107.72 7.875 15-Aug-09 5.06%Corp NEW PLAN EXCEL RLTY TR INC MTN 106.5 7.4 15-Sep-09 5.09%

    Corp DUKE CAP CORP 107.23 7.5 1-Oct-09 4.97%Corp ELECTRONIC DATA SYS CORP 105.95 7.125 15-Oct-09 5.06%Corp CLEVELAND ELEC ILLUM CO 107.29 7.43 1-Nov-09 4.94%Corp FEDERAL REALTY INVT TR 110.5 8.75 1-Dec-09 5.23%Corp DOMINION RES INC 100.45 5.125 15-Dec-09 4.98%Corp WELLPOINT INC 98.07 4.25 15-Dec-09 4.88%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 97.11 4.5 15-Jan-10 5.44%Corp COMCAST CORP NEW 102.74 5.85 15-Jan-10 4.97%

    Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 98.26 4.625 15-Jan-10 5.19%Corp TELECOM ITALIA CAP 96.36 4 15-Jan-10 5.18%Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 98.27 4.625 15-Jan-10 5.18%Corp TELECOM ITALIA CAP 96.36 4 15-Jan-10 5.18%

    Corp COLONIAL RLTY LTD PARTNERSHIP 98.89 4.75 1-Feb-10 5.10%Corp IBP INC 108.09 7.95 1-Feb-10 5.36%Corp KROGER CO 108.78 8.05 1-Feb-10 5.24%Corp SAFECO CORP 99.65 4.875 1-Feb-10 4.99%Corp AMERICAN STD INC 107.3 7.625 15-Feb-10 5.31%Corp AIFUL CORPORATION 96.59 4.45 16-Feb-10 5.54%

    Corp PENNEY J C CORP INC 109.17 8 1-Mar-10 5.14%Corp SEMPRA ENERGY 109.33 7.95 1-Mar-10 5.04%Corp NISSAN MTR ACCEP CORP 98.25 4.625 8-Mar-10 5.17%Corp AMERICAN ELEC PWR INC 101.17 5.375 15-Mar-10 5.01%Corp METROPOLITAN EDISON CO 97.95 4.45 15-Mar-10 5.08%Corp NEWS AMER INC 99.26 4.75 15-Mar-10 4.98%Corp RAYTHEON CO 105.22 6.55 15-Mar-10 4.94%

    Corp SCOTTISH PWR PLC 99.39 4.91 15-Mar-10 5.10%Corp INTL PAPER CO 96.67 4 1-Apr-10 5.01%Corp WASHINGTON MUT INC 110.22 8.25 1-Apr-10 5.12%Corp MACK-CALI RLTY L P 99.31 5.05 15-Apr-10 5.26%

    Corp NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC 96.37 4 1-May-10 5.09%Corp NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP 112.21 8.625 15-May-10 5.01%Corp PEPCO HOLDINGS INC 96.03 4 15-May-10 5.18%Corp ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD 107.06 8 15-May-10 5.87%Corp ENTERPRISE PRODS OPER LP 98.92 4.95 1-Jun-10 5.26%Corp UNION PAC CORP 95.45 3.625 1-Jun-10 4.96%Corp DOMINION RES INC VA NEW 110.11 8.125 15-Jun-10 5.18%Corp EXELON CORP 98 4.45 15-Jun-10 5.03%

    Corp NORTHERN BORDER PARTNERS L P 112.15 8.875 15-Jun-10 5.32%Corp HARRAHS OPER INC 100.64 5.5 1-Jul-10 5.31%Corp WILLIS NORTH AMER INC 99.49 5.125 15-Jul-10 5.27%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 109.97 8.1 1-Aug-10 5.27%Corp WASTE MGMT INC DEL 108.08 7.375 1-Aug-10 5.09%Corp PENNSYLVANIA ELEC CO UNSEC MTN 108.45 7.77 2-Aug-10 5.37%Corp TRIBUNE CO NEW 96.74 4.875 15-Aug-10 5.80%Corp DUKE ENERGY FIELD SVCS LLC 109.57 7.875 16-Aug-10 5.19%Corp SAFEWAY INC 98.63 4.95 16-Aug-10 5.33%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    52/162

    Corp SOVEREIGN BANCORP INC 98.83 4.8 1-Sep-10 5.12%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 106.57 7.65 15-Sep-10 5.82%Corp CONAGRA FOODS INC 109.89 7.875 15-Sep-10 5.15%

    Corp HEALTH CARE PPTY INVS INC MTN 98.23 4.875 15-Sep-10 5.36%Corp MARSH & MCLENNAN COS INC 99.76 5.15 15-Sep-10 5.21%Corp NUVEEN INVTS INC 99.03 5 15-Sep-10 5.27%

    Corp PUBLIC SERVICE CO OKLA 98.89 4.85 15-Sep-10 5.16%Corp MOLSON COORS CAP FIN 99.25 4.85 22-Sep-10 5.05%Corp BERKLEY W R CORP 99.56 5.125 30-Sep-10 5.24%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 97.77 4.65 1-Oct-10 5.26%Corp ROYAL KPN NV 108.83 8 1-Oct-10 5.57%Corp TELECOM ITALIA CAP 98.3 4.875 1-Oct-10 5.34%Corp GTECH HLDGS CORP 98.13 4.75 15-Oct-10 5.25%Corp HALLIBURTON CO 101.26 5.5 15-Oct-10 5.16%

    Corp HALLIBURTON CO 101.78 5.5 15-Oct-10 5.02%Corp CENTEX CORP 96.64 4.55 1-Nov-10 5.45%Corp KINDER MORGAN ENERGY PARTNERS 107.46 7.5 1-Nov-10 5.49%Corp MAY DEPT STORES CO 119.01 10.625 1-Nov-10 5.50%

    Corp UNITRIN INC 97.98 4.875 1-Nov-10 5.42%Corp COMCAST CORP NEW 101.14 5.45 15-Nov-10 5.15%Corp NISOURCE FIN CORP 110.92 7.875 15-Nov-10 4.99%Corp TEXAS EASTN TRANSMISSION CORP 107.86 7.3 1-Dec-10 5.23%Corp XCEL ENERGY INC MINN 107.06 7 1-Dec-10 5.14%Corp BURLINGTON NORTHN SANTA FE CP 107.87 7.125 15-Dec-10 5.08%

    Corp DOMINION RES INC VA NEW 98.23 4.75 15-Dec-10 5.21%Corp ISTAR FINL INC 102.61 6 15-Dec-10 5.32%Corp RAYTHEON CO 103.82 6 15-Dec-10 5.00%Corp VIRGINIA ELEC & PWR CO 97.56 4.5 15-Dec-10 5.13%Corp KINDER MORGAN FINANCE CORP ULC 95.83 5.35 5-Jan-11 6.46%Corp BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP 95.94 4.25 12-Jan-11 5.29%Corp AGL CAP CORP 107.48 7.125 14-Jan-11 5.20%

    Corp BRE PROPERTIES INC 108.54 7.45 15-Jan-11 5.26%Corp FORTUNE BRANDS INC 99.56 5.125 15-Jan-11 5.24%Corp RAYTHEON CO 99.3 4.85 15-Jan-11 5.03%Corp RECKSON OPER PARTNERSHIP L P 98.41 5.15 15-Jan-11 5.56%

    Corp WADDELL & REED FINL INC 100.43 5.6 15-Jan-11 5.49%Corp WELLPOINT INC 99.57 5 15-Jan-11 5.11%Corp COMCAST CABLE COMMUNICATIONS 106.08 6.75 30-Jan-11 5.20%Corp SPRINT CAP CORP 108.95 7.625 30-Jan-11 5.34%Corp CENTEX CORP 108.8 7.875 1-Feb-11 5.62%Corp ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD 110.5 8.75 2-Feb-11 6.03%Corp CARDINAL HEALTH INC 106.44 6.75 15-Feb-11 5.13%Corp NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP 106.76 6.75 15-Feb-11 5.05%

    Corp VORNADO RLTY L P 101.11 5.6 15-Feb-11 5.32%Corp RESIDENTIAL CAP CORP 100.42 6 22-Feb-11 5.89%Corp SAFEWAY INC 104.16 6.5 1-Mar-11 5.45%Corp NISSAN MTR ACCEP CORP 101.11 5.625 14-Mar-11 5.35%Corp ALCAN INC 105.27 6.45 15-Mar-11 5.14%Corp CSX CORP 106.3 6.75 15-Mar-11 5.18%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 101.18 6.25 15-Mar-11 5.95%Corp COMCAST CORP NEW 101.05 5.5 15-Mar-11 5.24%Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 104.6 6.75 15-Mar-11 5.60%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    53/162

    Corp KINDER MORGAN ENERGY PARTNERS 104.92 6.75 15-Mar-11 5.52%Corp COLONIAL RLTY LTD PARTNERSHIP 97.94 4.8 1-Apr-11 5.31%Corp FEDERATED DEPT STORES INC DEL 105.47 6.625 1-Apr-11 5.28%

    Corp KELLOGG CO 106.23 6.6 1-Apr-11 5.07%Corp KROGER CO 105.84 6.8 1-Apr-11 5.36%Corp RYDER SYS MTN BE 98.64 5 1-Apr-11 5.33%

    Corp AOL TIME WARNER INC 105.13 6.75 15-Apr-11 5.49%Corp ONEOK INC NEW 106.64 7.125 15-Apr-11 5.49%Corp TRICON GLOBAL RESTAURANTS 114.09 8.875 15-Apr-11 5.41%Corp VIACOM INC 100.74 5.75 30-Apr-11 5.57%Corp ANADARKO FIN CO 106.03 6.75 1-May-11 5.28%Corp EXELON CORP 105.83 6.75 1-May-11 5.33%Corp HEALTHCARE RLTY TR 110.51 8.125 1-May-11 5.55%Corp PREMCOR REFNG GROUP INC 103.69 6.125 1-May-11 5.23%

    Corp RYDER SYS MTN BE 102.41 5.95 2-May-11 5.36%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 93.69 4.4 15-May-11 5.94%Corp PUBLIC SERVICE CO OKLA 97.67 4.7 15-May-11 5.26%Corp VIACOM INC 105.21 6.625 15-May-11 5.36%

    Corp BLACK & DECKER CORP 107.17 7.125 1-Jun-11 5.40%Corp DTE ENERGY CO 106.78 7.05 1-Jun-11 5.42%Corp MATTEL INC MTN BE 104.6 7.3 13-Jun-11 6.18%Corp BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP 101.75 6 15-Jun-11 5.58%Corp EXELON GENERATION CO LLC 106.95 6.95 15-Jun-11 5.30%Corp WHIRLPOOL CORP 102.89 6.125 15-Jun-11 5.43%

    Corp TELEFONICA EMISONES SA 102.72 5.984 20-Jun-11 5.34%Corp SABMILLER PLC 104.06 6.2 1-Jul-11 5.24%Corp QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC 109.69 7.5 12-Jul-11 5.23%Corp ALLIED CAP CORP NEW 102.61 6.625 15-Jul-11 6.00%Corp BURLINGTON NORTHN SANTA FE CP 107.1 6.75 15-Jul-11 5.10%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 106.81 7 15-Jul-11 5.40%Corp HEINZ H J FIN CO 105.66 6.625 15-Jul-11 5.30%

    Corp LAFARGE COPPEE S A 102.97 6.15 15-Jul-11 5.45%Corp PULTE HOMES INC 108.88 7.875 1-Aug-11 5.79%Corp CNA FINL CORP 102.17 6 15-Aug-11 5.50%Corp FIDELITY NATL FINL INC 104.05 7.3 15-Aug-11 6.34%

    Corp REPUBLIC SVCS INC 106.39 6.75 15-Aug-11 5.28%Corp CONAGRA FOODS INC 106.31 6.75 15-Sep-11 5.32%Corp MAY DEPT STORES CO 108 7.45 15-Sep-11 5.62%Corp SARA LEE CORP 103.04 6.25 15-Sep-11 5.55%Corp DEVON FING CORP U L C 107.34 6.875 30-Sep-11 5.22%Corp TYSON FOODS INC 108.8 8.25 1-Oct-11 6.22%Corp TYCO INTL GROUP S A 105.61 6.375 15-Oct-11 5.12%Corp CONSOLIDATED NAT GAS CO 103.77 6.25 1-Nov-11 5.41%

    Corp PPL ENERGY SUPPLY LLC 104.64 6.4 1-Nov-11 5.36%Corp FIRSTENERGY CORP 104.95 6.45 15-Nov-11 5.35%Corp COVENTRY HEALTH CARE INC 99.86 5.875 15-Jan-12 5.91%Corp WELLPOINT HEALTH NETWORK NEW 104.87 6.375 15-Jan-12 5.33%Corp EOP OPER LTD PARTNERSHIP 106.38 6.75 15-Feb-12 5.39%Corp TEPPCO PARTNERS L P 108.03 7.625 15-Feb-12 5.89%Corp CRH AMER INC 106.4 6.95 15-Mar-12 5.60%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 94.29 5 15-Mar-12 6.23%Corp HEINZ H J FIN CO 102.43 6 15-Mar-12 5.49%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    54/162

    Corp JEFFERIES GROUP INC NEW 110.29 7.75 15-Mar-12 5.58%Corp KINDER MORGAN ENERGY PARTNERS 106.26 7.125 15-Mar-12 5.79%Corp MARSH & MCLENNAN COS INC 102.65 6.25 15-Mar-12 5.69%

    Corp SPRINT CAP CORP 113.02 8.375 15-Mar-12 5.62%Corp WEYERHAEUSER CO 105.51 6.75 15-Mar-12 5.59%Corp MEADWESTVACO CORP 105.65 6.85 1-Apr-12 5.66%

    Corp PROLOGIS 100.34 5.5 1-Apr-12 5.43%Corp KROGER CO 105.65 6.75 15-Apr-12 5.57%Corp UNION PAC CORP 106.35 6.5 15-Apr-12 5.19%Corp VALERO ENERGY CORP NEW 107.17 6.875 15-Apr-12 5.39%Corp AOL TIME WARNER INC 105.71 6.875 1-May-12 5.69%Corp STARWOOD HOTELS&RESORTS WRLDWD 109 7.875 1-May-12 5.99%Corp ARAMARK CORP 88.5 5 1-Jun-12 7.48%Corp PSEG PWR LLC 107.03 6.95 1-Jun-12 5.51%

    Corp KENNAMETAL INC 107.32 7.2 15-Jun-12 5.70%Corp HEALTH CARE PPTY INVS INC 104.07 6.45 25-Jun-12 5.62%Corp DOMINION RES INC VA NEW 103.86 6.25 30-Jun-12 5.47%Corp NEXFOR INC 108.11 7.25 1-Jul-12 5.61%

    Corp MAY DEPT STORES CO 111.78 8 15-Jul-12 5.63%Corp CONTINENTAL CORP 109.71 8.375 15-Aug-12 6.40%Corp PEPCO HOLDINGS INC 104.2 6.45 15-Aug-12 5.62%Corp VIACOM INC 100.47 5.625 15-Aug-12 5.53%Corp KINDER MORGAN INC 98.52 6.5 1-Sep-12 6.80%Corp SAFECO CORP 107 7.25 1-Sep-12 5.86%

    Corp ALCAN INC 97.28 4.875 15-Sep-12 5.41%Corp AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP 99.08 5.625 15-Sep-12 5.81%Corp CINCINNATI GAS & ELEC CO 101.45 5.7 15-Sep-12 5.42%Corp MIDAMERICAN ENERGY HLDGS NEW 103.01 5.875 1-Oct-12 5.29%Corp STANCORP FINL GROUP INC 107.21 6.875 1-Oct-12 5.47%Corp ASTORIA FINL CORP 101.39 5.75 15-Oct-12 5.48%Corp DEVELOPERS DIVERSIFIED RLTY CO 99.52 5.375 15-Oct-12 5.47%

    Corp PLAINS ALL AMERN PIPELINE L P 111.18 7.75 15-Oct-12 5.58%Corp INTL PAPER CO 102.39 5.85 30-Oct-12 5.39%Corp CENDANT CORP 106 7.375 15-Jan-13 6.22%Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 96.38 5.75 15-Jan-13 6.45%

    Corp TIME WARNER COMPANIES INC 115.84 9.125 15-Jan-13 6.10%Corp USA INTERACTIVE 103.3 7 15-Jan-13 6.36%Corp SEMPRA ENERGY 102.64 6 1-Feb-13 5.51%Corp AEP TEX CENT CO 99.82 5.5 15-Feb-13 5.53%Corp BERKLEY W R CORP 101.87 5.875 15-Feb-13 5.53%Corp DUKE CAP CORP 102.92 6.25 15-Feb-13 5.71%Corp AEP TEX NORTH CO 99.86 5.5 1-Mar-13 5.53%Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 107.18 7.125 1-Mar-13 5.79%

    Corp NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO N J 97 5.25 1-Mar-13 5.81%Corp TXU ENERGY CO LLC 105.19 7 15-Mar-13 6.03%Corp CENTERPOINT ENERGY RESOURCES 111.45 7.875 1-Apr-13 5.77%Corp RESIDENTIAL CAP CORP 102.29 6.5 17-Apr-13 6.07%Corp D R HORTON INC 103 6.875 1-May-13 6.32%Corp FUND AMERN COS INC 99.08 5.875 15-May-13 6.04%Corp M D C HLDGS INC 94.15 5.5 15-May-13 6.59%Corp EMBARQ CORP 103.13 6.738 1-Jun-13 6.16%Corp ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD 102.5 7 15-Jun-13 6.54%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    55/162

    Corp CYTEC INDS INC 92.39 4.6 1-Jul-13 5.97%Corp HARLEYSVILLE GROUP INC 98.25 5.75 15-Jul-13 6.06%Corp PACKAGING CORP AMER 98.69 5.75 1-Aug-13 5.98%

    Corp TELE COMMUNICATIONS INC 111.33 7.875 1-Aug-13 5.87%Corp CAROLINA TEL & TELEG CO 102.5 6.75 15-Aug-13 6.30%Corp PSI ENERGY INC 96.97 5 15-Sep-13 5.52%

    Corp POTOMAC ELEC PWR CO 97.72 4.95 15-Nov-13 5.33%Corp TELECOM ITALIA CAP 96.36 5.25 15-Nov-13 5.87%Corp CONSOLIDATED NAT GAS CO 105.59 6.625 1-Dec-13 5.68%Corp ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD 101.5 6.875 1-Dec-13 6.61%Corp COMMERCE GROUP INC MASS 100.29 5.95 9-Dec-13 5.90%Corp CLEVELAND ELEC ILLUM CO 99.67 5.65 15-Dec-13 5.70%Corp IMCERA GROUP INC 106.39 7 15-Dec-13 5.91%Corp PLAINS ALL AMERN PIPELINE L P 99.53 5.625 15-Dec-13 5.70%

    Corp CENTERPOINT ENERGY RES CORP 101.08 5.95 15-Jan-14 5.77%Corp COMCAST CORP NEW 97.26 5.3 15-Jan-14 5.76%Corp EXELON GENERATION CO LLC 98.57 5.35 15-Jan-14 5.59%Corp MACK-CALI RLTY L P 96.25 5.125 15-Feb-14 5.75%

    Corp DUKE CAP CORP 98.73 5.5 1-Mar-14 5.71%Corp PACIFIC GAS & ELEC CO 96.38 4.8 1-Mar-14 5.39%Corp CORNING INC 102.14 5.9 15-Mar-14 5.55%Corp TOLL BROS FIN CORP 90.12 4.95 15-Mar-14 6.63%Corp METROPOLITAN EDISON CO 96.25 4.875 1-Apr-14 5.48%Corp GLENCORE FDG LLC 95.6 6 15-Apr-14 6.74%

    Corp POTOMAC ELEC PWR CO 95.09 4.65 15-Apr-14 5.44%Corp MAGELLAN MIDSTREAM PRTNRS LP 103.26 6.45 1-Jun-14 5.92%Corp OHIO CAS CORP 106.57 7.3 15-Jun-14 6.23%Corp ARIZONA PUB SVC CO 99.97 5.8 30-Jun-14 5.80%Corp WESTAR ENERGY INC 102.94 6 1-Jul-14 5.53%Corp MARSH & MCLENNAN COS INC 96.23 5.375 15-Jul-14 5.98%Corp MAYTAG CORP MEDTERM NTS BK ENT 102.31 6.45 15-Aug-14 6.08%

    Corp CLEAR CHANNEL COMMUNICATIONS 92.88 5.5 15-Sep-14 6.65%Corp D R HORTON INC 95 5.625 15-Sep-14 6.43%Corp TELECOM ITALIA CAP 93.18 4.95 30-Sep-14 6.02%Corp LUBRIZOL CORP 97.54 5.5 1-Oct-14 5.88%

    Corp ATMOS ENERGY CORP 94.74 4.95 15-Oct-14 5.77%Corp INDIANA MICH PWR CO 95.95 5.05 15-Nov-14 5.67%Corp JONES APPAREL GROUP INC / 89.05 5.125 15-Nov-14 6.89%Corp CONSOLIDATED NAT GAS CO 95.24 5 1-Dec-14 5.73%Corp COMCAST CORP NEW 104.78 6.5 15-Jan-15 5.77%Corp ONCOR ELEC DELIVERY CO 104.06 6.375 15-Jan-15 5.76%Corp APPALACHIAN PWR CO 95.38 4.95 1-Feb-15 5.65%Corp CENTURYTEL INC 91.87 5 15-Feb-15 6.25%

    Corp PULTE HOMES INC 93.33 5.2 15-Feb-15 6.22%Corp ENTERPRISE PRODS OPER LP 93.79 5 1-Mar-15 5.94%Corp INTL PAPER CO 96.22 5.3 1-Apr-15 5.86%Corp ARCHSTONE-SMITH OPER TR 97.18 5.25 1-May-15 5.66%Corp ODYSSEY RE HLDGS CORP 95.13 6.875 1-May-15 7.65%Corp HEALTH CARE REIT INC 98.86 5.875 15-May-15 6.04%Corp MAYTAG CORP MEDTERM NTS BK ENT 92 5 15-May-15 6.20%Corp AMERICAN ELEC PWR INC 96.81 5.25 1-Jun-15 5.72%Corp CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC 106.09 6.85 1-Jun-15 5.95%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    56/162

    Corp HARRAHS OPER INC 95.25 5.625 1-Jun-15 6.34%Corp CENTEX CORP 93.66 5.25 15-Jun-15 6.19%Corp CONSTELLATION ENERGY GROUP INC 92.05 4.55 15-Jun-15 5.71%

    Corp EXELON CORP 94.74 4.9 15-Jun-15 5.66%Corp ONEOK INC NEW 95.6 5.2 15-Jun-15 5.84%Corp COX COMMUNICATIONS INC NEW 95.96 5.5 1-Oct-15 6.08%

    Corp TELECOM ITALIA CAP 94.47 5.25 1-Oct-15 6.05%Corp NEWS AMER HLDGS INC 112.59 7.6 11-Oct-15 5.81%Corp EQUITY ONE 95.92 5.375 15-Oct-15 5.96%Corp PENNEY JC INC MTN BE 106.33 6.875 15-Oct-15 5.97%Corp COMCAST CORP NEW 99.4 5.85 15-Nov-15 5.93%Corp HARRAHS OPER INC 100.5 6.5 1-Jun-16 6.43%Corp ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD 102.12 7.25 15-Jun-16 6.95%Corp WHIRLPOOL CORP 102.83 6.5 15-Jun-16 6.11%

    Corp PENNEY J C INC 113.86 7.65 15-Aug-16 5.80%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    57/162

    Current

    yield

    Fitch

    rating

    CallableYears to

    maturity2.742 BBB No 0.59

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    58/162

    3.879 BBB No 1.307.419 BBB No 1.316.863 BBB No 1.35

    6.316 BBB No 1.356.513 BBB No 1.356.397 BBB No 1.41

    6.261 BBB No 1.436.127 BBB No 1.434.606 BBB No 1.43

    5.86 BBB No 1.437.163 BBB No 1.437.077 BBB No 1.48

    6.19 BBB No 1.486.4 BBB No 1.48

    6.227 BBB No 1.529.069 BBB No 1.524.117 BBB No 1.526.519 BBB No 1.52

    6.647 BBB No 1.527.278 BBB No 1.523.649 BBB No 1.528.002 BBB No 1.528.558 BBB No 1.526.733 BBB No 1.56

    6.181 BBB No 1.564.488 BBB No 1.567.117 BBB No 1.566.522 BBB No 1.595.195 BBB No 1.646.419 BBB No 1.646.066 BBB No 1.64

    7.156 BBB No 1.686.804 BBB No 1.683.645 BBB No 1.769.077 BBB No 1.76

    5.564 BBB No 1.763.564 BBB No 1.76

    6.1 BBB No 1.766.492 BBB No 1.806.626 BBB No 1.815.752 BBB No 1.813.362 BBB No 1.813.084 BBB No 1.85

    5.993 BBB No 1.867.251 BBB No 1.896.806 BBB No 1.986.198 BBB No 1.98

    4.27 BBB No 2.016.958 BBB No 2.018.305 BBB No 2.066.897 BBB No 2.065.653 BBB No 2.14

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    59/162

    3.928 BBB No 2.143.947 BBB No 2.145.441 BBB No 2.16

    5.633 BBB No 2.186.85 BBB No 2.18

    3.958 BBB No 2.18

    6.991 BBB No 2.197.535 BBB No 2.235.798 BBB No 2.236.869 BBB No 2.235.776 BBB No 2.235.517 BBB No 2.246.001 BBB No 2.275.935 BBB No 2.27

    4.059 BBB No 2.276.251 BBB No 2.275.508 BBB No 2.315.752 BBB No 2.31

    5.599 BBB No 2.336.359 BBB No 2.354.073 BBB No 2.354.582 BBB No 2.37

    5 BBB No 2.436.511 BBB No 2.43

    6.409 BBB No 2.437.512 BBB No 2.484.197 BBB No 2.524.797 BBB No 2.526.562 BBB No 2.547.193 BBB No 2.564.377 BBB No 2.56

    5.987 BBB No 2.565.913 BBB No 2.597.455 BBB No 2.596.837 BBB No 2.59

    3.843 BBB No 2.645.942 BBB No 2.646.505 BBB No 2.646.745 BBB No 2.68

    6.38 BBB No 2.686.886 BBB No 2.687.233 BBB No 2.68

    6.51 BBB No 2.72

    6.447 BBB No 2.726.843 BBB No 2.726.132 BBB No 2.724.347 BBB No 2.764.758 BBB No 2.76

    8.11 BBB No 2.816.736 BBB No 2.856.252 BBB No 2.856.192 BBB No 2.85

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    60/162

    7.532 BBB No 2.934.811 BBB No 2.93

    6.53 BBB No 2.93

    4.911 BBB No 2.937.311 BBB No 3.016.948 BBB No 3.10

    6.994 BBB No 3.146.725 BBB No 3.186.925 BBB No 3.237.919 BBB No 3.315.102 BBB No 3.354.334 BBB No 3.354.634 BBB No 3.435.694 BBB No 3.43

    4.707 BBB No 3.434.151 BBB No 3.434.706 BBB No 3.434.151 BBB No 3.43

    4.803 BBB No 3.487.355 BBB No 3.487.4 BBB No 3.48

    4.892 BBB No 3.487.106 BBB No 3.524.607 BBB No 3.52

    7.328 BBB No 3.567.271 BBB No 3.564.707 BBB No 3.585.313 BBB No 3.594.543 BBB No 3.594.785 BBB No 3.596.225 BBB No 3.59

    4.94 BBB No 3.594.138 BBB No 3.647.485 BBB No 3.645.085 BBB No 3.68

    4.151 BBB No 3.727.686 BBB No 3.764.165 BBB No 3.767.473 BBB No 3.765.004 BBB No 3.813.798 BBB No 3.817.379 BBB No 3.854.541 BBB No 3.85

    7.914 BBB No 3.855.465 BBB No 3.895.151 BBB No 3.937.366 BBB No 3.986.824 BBB No 3.987.165 BBB No 3.985.039 BBB No 4.017.187 BBB No 4.025.019 BBB No 4.02

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    61/162

    4.857 BBB No 4.067.178 BBB No 4.107.166 BBB No 4.10

    4.963 BBB No 4.105.162 BBB No 4.105.049 BBB No 4.10

    4.905 BBB No 4.104.886 BBB No 4.125.148 BBB No 4.144.756 BBB No 4.147.351 BBB No 4.144.959 BBB No 4.14

    4.84 BBB No 4.185.432 BBB No 4.18

    5.404 BBB No 4.184.708 BBB No 4.236.979 BBB No 4.238.928 BBB No 4.23

    4.976 BBB No 4.235.389 BBB No 4.277.1 BBB No 4.27

    6.768 BBB No 4.316.538 BBB No 4.316.605 BBB No 4.35

    4.836 BBB No 4.355.848 BBB No 4.355.779 BBB No 4.354.612 BBB No 4.355.583 BBB No 4.41

    4.43 BBB No 4.426.629 BBB No 4.43

    6.864 BBB No 4.435.148 BBB No 4.434.884 BBB No 4.435.233 BBB No 4.43

    5.576 BBB No 4.435.022 BBB No 4.436.363 BBB No 4.476.998 BBB No 4.477.238 BBB No 4.487.919 BBB No 4.486.342 BBB No 4.526.322 BBB No 4.52

    5.538 BBB No 4.525.975 BBB No 4.54

    6.24 BBB No 4.565.563 BBB No 4.596.127 BBB No 4.59

    6.35 BBB No 4.596.177 BBB No 4.595.443 BBB No 4.596.453 BBB No 4.59

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    62/162

    6.433 BBB No 4.594.901 BBB No 4.646.282 BBB No 4.64

    6.213 BBB No 4.646.425 BBB No 4.645.069 BBB No 4.64

    6.421 BBB No 4.686.681 BBB No 4.687.779 BBB No 4.685.708 BBB No 4.726.366 BBB No 4.726.378 BBB No 4.727.352 BBB No 4.725.907 BBB No 4.72

    5.81 BBB No 4.734.696 BBB No 4.764.812 BBB No 4.766.297 BBB No 4.76

    6.648 BBB No 4.816.603 BBB No 4.816.979 BBB No 4.845.897 BBB No 4.856.498 BBB No 4.855.953 BBB No 4.85

    5.825 BBB No 4.865.958 BBB No 4.896.837 BBB No 4.926.457 BBB No 4.936.303 BBB No 4.936.554 BBB No 4.93

    6.27 BBB No 4.93

    5.973 BBB No 4.937.233 BBB No 4.985.872 BBB No 5.017.016 BBB No 5.01

    6.345 BBB No 5.016.349 BBB No 5.106.898 BBB No 5.106.066 BBB No 5.106.405 BBB No 5.147.583 BBB No 5.146.036 BBB No 5.186.023 BBB No 5.23

    6.116 BBB No 5.236.146 BBB No 5.275.884 BBB No 5.436.079 BBB No 5.436.345 BBB No 5.527.058 BBB No 5.526.532 BBB No 5.605.303 BBB No 5.605.858 BBB No 5.60

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    63/162

    7.027 BBB No 5.606.705 BBB No 5.606.088 BBB No 5.60

    7.41 BBB No 5.606.397 BBB No 5.606.483 BBB No 5.64

    5.481 BBB No 5.646.389 BBB No 5.686.112 BBB No 5.686.415 BBB No 5.686.504 BBB No 5.737.225 BBB No 5.73

    5.65 BBB No 5.816.493 BBB No 5.81

    6.709 BBB No 5.856.198 BBB No 5.886.018 BBB No 5.896.706 BBB No 5.89

    7.157 BBB No 5.937.634 BBB No 6.026.19 BBB No 6.02

    5.599 BBB No 6.026.598 BBB No 6.066.776 BBB No 6.06

    5.012 BBB No 6.105.677 BBB No 6.105.619 BBB No 6.105.703 BBB No 6.156.413 BBB No 6.155.671 BBB No 6.185.401 BBB No 6.18

    6.97 BBB No 6.185.713 BBB No 6.226.958 BBB No 6.445.966 BBB No 6.44

    7.877 BBB No 6.446.777 BBB No 6.445.846 BBB No 6.48

    5.51 BBB No 6.525.767 BBB No 6.526.073 BBB No 6.525.508 BBB No 6.566.648 BBB No 6.56

    5.412 BBB No 6.566.654 BBB No 6.607.066 BBB No 6.646.354 BBB No 6.696.675 BBB No 6.73

    5.93 BBB No 6.765.841 BBB No 6.766.533 BBB No 6.816.829 BBB No 6.85

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    64/162

    4.979 BBB No 6.895.852 BBB No 6.935.827 BBB No 6.98

    7.074 BBB No 6.986.585 BBB No 7.025.156 BBB No 7.10

    5.066 BBB No 7.275.449 BBB No 7.276.274 BBB No 7.316.773 BBB No 7.315.933 BBB No 7.335.668 BBB No 7.35

    6.58 BBB No 7.355.652 BBB No 7.35

    5.887 BBB No 7.445.449 BBB No 7.445.428 BBB No 7.445.324 BBB No 7.52

    5.571 BBB No 7.564.98 BBB No 7.565.776 BBB No 7.605.493 BBB No 7.605.065 BBB No 7.646.276 BBB No 7.68

    4.89 BBB No 7.686.246 BBB No 7.81

    6.85 BBB No 7.855.802 BBB No 7.895.829 BBB No 7.895.585 BBB No 7.936.304 BBB No 8.02

    5.922 BBB No 8.105.921 BBB No 8.105.312 BBB No 8.145.639 BBB No 8.15

    5.225 BBB No 8.185.263 BBB No 8.275.755 BBB No 8.27

    5.25 BBB No 8.316.203 BBB No 8.446.126 BBB No 8.44

    5.19 BBB No 8.485.443 BBB No 8.52

    5.571 BBB No 8.525.331 BBB No 8.565.508 BBB No 8.645.402 BBB No 8.737.227 BBB No 8.735.942 BBB No 8.765.435 BBB No 8.765.423 BBB No 8.816.457 BBB No 8.81

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    65/162

    5.906 BBB No 8.815.606 BBB No 8.854.943 BBB No 8.85

    5.172 BBB No 8.855.439 BBB No 8.855.732 BBB No 9.15

    5.557 BBB No 9.156.75 BBB No 9.17

    5.604 BBB No 9.186.466 BBB No 9.185.886 BBB No 9.276.468 BBB No 9.817.099 BBB No 9.856.321 BBB No 9.85

    6.719 BBB No 10.02

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    66/162

    .0001x 3- 0.0023x 2+ 0.0152x + 0.0221R = 0.8479

    6 7 8 9 10 11turity

    s, 11Aug06

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    67/162

    12

    3456

    789101112131415

    1617181920212223242526

    27

    28293031

    A B C

    Average time to maturity (years) 5

    Yield 5.31%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    68/162

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    67

    89101112131415

    1617181920212223242526

    27

    2829303132

    A B C

    Stock price, end 2005 27.75

    Current dividend, D0 0.92

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    69/162

    1234

    56

    7

    8

    9

    10

    1112

    1314

    1516

    17181920212223242526

    A B C D

    Shares outstanding 1,669,880,755Share price, end 2005 27.75Equity value, E 46,339,190,951

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    70/162

    1234

    56

    7

    8

    9

    10

    1112

    1314

    1516

    17181920212223242526

    E F

    )

    Cash flow to

    equity holders395,000,000

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    71/162

    12

    34

    5

    678

    9

    10

    11

    121314

    15

    A B

    Market price/earnings multiple, December 2005 18

    Equity cash flow payout ratio 50.00%Anticipated growth of equity cash flow 6.00%

    Expected market return, E(rM) 8.94%

    Kraft cost of equity calculationsKraft beta 0.4700

    Kraft tax rate, TC 29.37%

    Risk free rate, rf 4.93%

    Kraft cost of equity, rE,Kraft Classic CAPM 6.82% Tax-adjusted CAPM 6.05%

    COMPUTING THE COST OF EQUITY rE

    MARKET PRICE/EARNINGS MULTIP

    Note: Price/Earnings ratio for S&P 500 from http://www.bullandbe

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    72/162

    12

    34

    5

    678

    9

    10

    11

    121314

    15

    C

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    73/162

    1

    23456

    7

    8

    9

    10

    111213

    14

    15

    16

    171819

    20

    21

    22

    232425

    26

    27

    28

    29

    A B

    Shares outstanding 1,669,880,755Share price, end 2005 27.75Equity value, E 46,339,190,951Net debt, D 10,884,000,000

    WACC based on Gordon per-share dividends a

    Cost of equity, rE 16.79%

    Cost of debt, rD 5.50%

    Tax rate, TC 29.37%

    WACC 14.33%

    WACC based on Gordon equity payouts and in

    Cost of equity, rE 14.46%

    Cost of debt, rD 5.50%

    Tax rate, TC 29.37%

    WACC 12.45%

    WACC based on classic CAPM and interest fro

    Cost of equity, rE 6.82%

    Cost of debt, rD 5.50%

    Tax rate, TC 29.37%

    WACC 6.26%

    WACC based on tax-adjusted CAPM and intere

    Cost of equity, rE 6.05%

    Cost of debt, rD 5.50%

    Tax rate, TC 29.37%

    WACC 5.64%

    COMPUTIN

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    74/162

    1

    23456

    7

    8

    9

    10

    111213

    14

    15

    16

    171819

    20

    21

    22

    232425

    26

    27

    28

    29

    C

    nd interest from financial statements

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    75/162

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    76/162

    1234

    56

    7

    8

    9

    10

    1112

    1314

    1516

    1718192021

    A B C D

    Shares outstanding 354,820,000Share price, 11Aug06 13.45Equity value, E 4,772,329,000

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    77/162

    1234

    56

    7

    8

    9

    10

    1112

    1314

    1516

    1718192021

    E F

    )

    Cash flow to

    equity holders49,000,000

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    78/162

    12

    34

    5

    678

    9

    10

    11

    121314

    15

    A B

    Market price/earnings multiple, August 2006 17

    Equity cash flow payout ratio 50.00%Anticipated growth of equity cash flow 6.00%

    Expected market return, E(rM) 9.12%

    Tyson cost of equity calculationsTyson beta 0.20

    Tyson tax rate, TC 29.55%

    Risk free rate, rf 4.93%

    Tyson cost of equity, rE,Kraft Classic CAPM 5.77% Tax-adjusted CAPM 4.60%

    COMPUTING THE COST OF EQUITY rE

    MARKET PRICE/EARNINGS MULTIP

    Note: Price/Earnings ratio for S&P 500 from http://www.bullandbe

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    79/162

    12

    34

    5

    678

    9

    10

    11

    121314

    15

    C

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    80/162

    1

    23456

    78910

    A B C D

    2005 2004Cash and cash equivalents 40,000,000 33,000,000Current debt 126,000,000 338,000,000Long term debt 2,869,000,000 3,024,000,000Net debt 2,955,000,000 3,329,000,000

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    81/162

    1

    23456

    7

    8

    9

    10

    111213

    14

    15

    16

    171819

    20

    21

    22

    232425

    26

    27

    28

    29

    3031

    A B

    Shares outstanding 354,820,000Share price, end 2005 13.45Equity value, E 4,772,329,000Net debt, D 2,955,000,000

    WACC based on Gordon per-share dividends a

    Cost of equity, rE 1.19%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.22%

    Tax rate, TC 29.55%

    WACC 2.68%

    WACC based on Gordon equity payouts and in

    Cost of equity, rE 4.18%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.22%

    Tax rate, TC 29.55%

    WACC 4.53%

    WACC based on classic CAPM and interest fro

    Cost of equity, rE 5.77%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.22%

    Tax rate, TC 29.55%

    WACC 5.51%

    WACC based on tax-adjusted CAPM and intere

    Cost of equity, rE 4.60%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.22%

    Tax rate, TC 29.55%

    WACC 4.79%

    Estimated WACC? 4.94%

    COMPUTIN

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    82/162

    1

    23456

    7

    8

    9

    10

    111213

    14

    15

    16

    171819

    20

    21

    22

    232425

    26

    27

    28

    29

    3031

    C

    nd interest from financial statements

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    83/162

    12

    3

    4

    5678

    910

    111213141516171819

    20212223242526

    272829

    303132333435363738

    39

    A B C D

    Share price, 31jan06 50.69

    Current dividend, D0

    0.60

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    84/162

    12

    34

    56

    7

    89

    10

    1112131415

    1617

    A B C D

    Shares outstanding 12,536,000

    Share price, 31jan06 50.69Equity value, E 635,449,840

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    85/162

    12

    34

    56

    7

    89

    10

    1112131415

    1617

    E F

    Cash flow to

    equity holders2,448,0001,354,0002,523,0003,637,0003,862,000

    3,904,0009.78%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    86/162

    12

    34

    5

    6

    78

    9

    10

    11

    121314

    15

    A B C

    Market price/earnings multiple, December 2005 18

    Equity cash flow payout ratio 50.00%Anticipated growth of equity cash flow 6.00%

    Expected market return, E(rM) 8.94%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    87/162

    1

    234

    5678910111213

    14151617

    1819

    A B C

    2006/01/31 2005/01/31Cash and cash equivalents 35,493,000 30,482,000Marketable securities 23,004,000 1,503,000

    Notes payable to banks 4,741,000 2,461,000Current portion of long-term debt 12,681,000 12,916,000Long-term debt, net of current portion 12,500,000 25,187,000Total debt 29,922,000 40,564,000

    Interest expense 2,741,000 3,570,000Interest income 979,000 562,000

    Interest cost 7.78%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    88/162

    1

    234

    5678910111213

    14151617

    1819

    D

    (B10:C10)(B3:C3)

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    89/162

    123

    456

    7

    8

    9

    10

    111213

    14

    1516

    171819

    20

    21

    22

    232425

    26

    27

    28

    29

    3031

    A B

    Shares outstanding 12,536,000Share price, end 2005 50.69

    Equity value, E 635,449,840Net debt, D -28,575,000

    WACC based on Gordon per-share dividends a

    Cost of equity, rE 18.11%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.78%

    Tax rate, TC 32.42%

    WACC 18.71%

    WACC based on Gordon equity payouts and in

    Cost of equity, rE 10.46%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.78%Tax rate, TC 32.42%

    WACC 10.70%

    WACC based on classic CAPM and interest fro

    Cost of equity, rE 11.55%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.78%

    Tax rate, TC 32.42%

    WACC 11.85%

    WACC based on tax-adjusted CAPM and intere

    Cost of equity, rE

    12.59%

    Cost of debt, rD 7.78%

    Tax rate, TC 32.42%

    WACC 12.94%

    Estimated WACC? 11.83%

    COMPUTING

    The compa

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    90/162

    123

    456

    7

    8

    9

    10

    111213

    14

    1516

    171819

    20

    21

    22

    232425

    26

    27

    28

    29

    3031

    C

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    91/162

    123

    45678910

    1112131415

    1617181920

    21222324252627282930

    31

    A B C

    Year Dividend1989 3.00

    1990 3.001991 1.951992 1.601993 1.601994 1.331995 1.231996 1.46

    1997 1.641998 22.81

    Growth rate, 1989-1997 -7.27%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    92/162

    1

    234510

    111213141516171819

    2021

    22232425262728293031

    3233

    3435363738394041

    424344454647

    A B C D E F G

    Date price Date priceMay-96 669.12 May-96 46.25Jun-96 670.63 0.23% Jun-96 38.75 -17.69%Nov-96 757.02 7.08% Nov-96 16.25 -73.09%

    Dec-96 740.74 -2.17% Dec-96 13.13 -21.36%Jan-97 786.16 5.95% Jan-97 17.50 28.77%Feb-97 790.82 0.59% Feb-97 22.50 25.13%Mar-97 757.12 -4.35% Mar-97 25.63 13.01%Apr-97 801.34 5.68% Apr-97 30.00 15.76%May-97 848.28 5.69% May-97 25.00 -18.23%Jun-97 885.14 4.25% Jun-97 24.38 -2.53%Jul-97 954.31 7.52% Jul-97 26.25 7.41%Aug-97 899.47 -5.92% Aug-97 20.94 -22.61%

    Sep-97 947.28 5.18% Sep-97 22.50 7.20%Oct-97 914.62 -3.51% Oct-97 10.16 -79.54%

    Nov-97 955.4 4.36% Nov-97 12.50 20.76%Dec-97 970.43 1.56% Dec-97 6.41 -66.85%Jan-98 980.28 1.01% Jan-98 5.94 -7.60%Feb-98 1049.34 6.81% Feb-98 4.38 -30.54%Mar-98 1101.75 4.87% Mar-98 4.38 0.00%Apr-98 1111.75 0.90% Apr-98 2.19 -69.31%May-98 1090.82 -1.90% May-98 2.03 -7.41%Jun-98 1133.84 3.87% Jun-98 1.00 -70.86%Jul-98 1120.67 -1.17% Jul-98 1.00 0.00%Aug-98 957.28 -15.76% Aug-98 0.63 -47.00%

    Sep-98 1017.01 6.05% Sep-98 0.38 -51.08%Oct-98 1098.67 7.72% Oct-98 0.25 -40.55%

    Nov-98 1163.63 5.74% Nov-98 0.38 40.55%Dec-98 1229.23 5.48% Dec-98 0.25 -40.55%Jan-99 1279.64 4.02% Jan-99 0.38 40.55%Feb-99 1238.33 -3.28% Feb-99 1.06 104.15%Mar-99 1286.37 3.81% Mar-99 0.97 -9.23%

    Return sigma (monthly) 4.98% 39.09%Return sigma (annual) 17.27% 135.41%

    Big City's beta -0.0542

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    93/162

    1

    234510

    111213141516171819

    2021

    22232425262728293031

    3233

    3435363738394041

    424344454647

    H

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    94/162

    1

    23

    4

    5

    6

    78910

    111213

    14

    A B C

    Big City's beta -0.0542

    Risk-free rate, rf 4.29%

    Expected market return, E(rM) 9.08%

    Cost of equity, rE 4.03%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    95/162

    123

    4

    5

    6

    789

    10111213

    14

    A B C

    Big City's beta 1.3000

    Risk-free rate, rf 4.29%

    Expected market return, E(rM) 9.08%

    Cost of equity, rE 10.52%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    96/162

    DateAlcoa

    AA

    American

    International

    AIG

    American

    Express

    AXP

    Boeing

    BA

    Citigroup

    C

    Caterpillar

    CAT

    4/2/2002 30.54 67.13 34.27 40.92 34.28 24.705/1/2002 31.54 65.04 35.52 39.27 34.33 23.646/3/2002 29.89 66.31 30.35 41.44 30.81 22.147/1/2002 24.53 62.12 29.53 38.23 26.66 20.388/1/2002 22.75 61.03 30.20 34.29 28.07 19.909/3/2002 17.50 53.20 26.11 31.57 25.41 16.97

    10/1/2002 20.00 60.84 30.53 27.52 31.83 18.7911/1/2002 23.32 63.37 32.68 31.67 33.49 22.9612/2/2002 20.79 56.31 29.74 30.68 30.31 21.03

    1/2/2003 18.04 52.68 29.89 29.38 29.75 20.392/3/2003 18.86 47.98 28.25 25.77 28.88 21.793/3/2003 17.82 48.18 27.96 23.43 29.84 22.814/1/2003 21.23 56.46 31.93 25.51 34.00 24.54

    5/1/2003 22.79 56.39 35.14 28.85 35.71 24.332/1/2007 33.41 67.11 56.72 87.26 50.37 64.433/1/2007 33.90 67.22 56.25 88.91 51.34 67.034/2/2007 34.59 67.23 55.96 90.50 51.57 67.63

    PRICE DATA FOR DOW-JONES INDUSTRIAL 30

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    97/162

    DuPont

    DD

    Disney

    DIS

    General

    Electric

    GE

    General

    Motors

    GM

    Home Depot

    HD

    Honeywell

    HON

    Hewlett

    Packard

    HPQ

    37.72 22.04 27.56 50.54 43.85 32.59 15.9239.29 21.79 27.20 49.33 39.42 35.00 17.7837.92 17.97 25.53 42.43 34.77 31.46 14.3035.80 16.86 28.30 36.95 29.24 28.89 13.2434.72 14.91 26.50 38.43 31.18 26.90 12.5631.07 14.40 21.82 31.24 24.75 19.45 10.9835.53 15.88 22.35 26.70 27.38 21.50 14.8738.75 18.85 24.00 32.35 25.03 23.55 18.3336.82 15.70 21.72 30.03 22.83 21.73 16.41

    32.89 16.85 20.64 29.60 19.86 22.13 16.4632.16 16.42 21.62 27.90 22.29 20.89 14.9834.08 16.39 22.92 27.78 23.21 19.50 14.7737.30 17.97 26.47 29.78 26.81 21.54 15.49

    37.25 18.92 25.80 29.60 30.96 24.10 18.5350.73 34.25 34.91 31.90 39.36 46.40 39.2749.43 34.43 35.36 30.64 36.74 46.06 40.1449.32 34.91 35.02 31.90 38.02 47.26 41.80

    OMPONENTS, APRIL 2002 - APRIL 2007

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    98/162

    International

    Business

    Machines

    IBM

    Intel

    INTC

    Johnson &

    Johnson

    JNJ

    JP Morgan

    Chase

    JPM

    Coca Cola

    KO

    McDonalds

    MCD

    3M Company

    MMM

    79.91 27.16 57.99 28.87 49.46 25.90 56.7176.91 26.24 55.90 29.57 49.51 27.31 56.8368.83 17.36 47.62 27.90 50.09 25.95 55.7267.30 17.85 47.93 20.75 44.67 22.57 57.0172.22 15.86 49.67 21.95 45.61 21.67 56.8855.87 13.21 49.46 15.79 43.06 16.11 50.0675.63 16.46 53.73 17.56 41.73 16.52 57.7983.43 19.88 52.32 21.30 41.16 17.11 59.4074.39 14.83 49.29 20.31 39.54 14.87 56.40

    75.06 14.91 49.19 20.03 36.49 13.17 56.9874.97 16.45 48.33 19.46 36.27 12.59 57.6575.43 15.52 53.32 20.35 36.72 13.37 59.7981.65 17.54 51.93 25.55 36.65 15.81 57.96

    84.82 19.87 50.30 28.60 41.34 17.32 58.4792.94 19.86 62.93 49.04 46.35 43.69 74.0894.26 19.13 60.26 48.04 48.00 45.05 76.4396.52 19.58 61.55 48.77 49.52 45.78 76.75

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    99/162

    Altria Group

    MO

    Merck

    MRK

    Microsoft

    MSFT

    Pfizer

    PFE

    Procter

    Gamble

    PG

    AT&T

    T

    United

    Technology

    UTX

    31.75 42.71 22.49 31.96 40.80 24.27 32.4133.40 44.88 21.91 30.53 40.48 26.79 31.9225.80 40.06 23.54 30.88 40.68 23.83 31.4727.20 39.24 20.65 28.54 40.75 21.80 32.2129.54 39.97 21.12 29.30 40.59 19.49 27.6323.23 36.43 18.82 25.71 40.92 15.84 26.2924.40 43.23 23.01 28.14 40.68 20.48 28.7022.58 47.35 24.82 28.04 38.88 22.75 29.1824.65 45.40 22.25 27.19 39.53 21.64 28.94

    23.03 44.42 20.42 27.13 39.55 19.68 29.7023.50 42.30 20.46 26.65 37.83 16.75 27.4718.55 44.24 20.90 27.85 41.16 16.16 27.1019.04 46.99 22.08 27.48 41.71 19.10 28.99

    25.57 44.89 21.25 27.85 42.63 20.82 32.1462.62 43.77 28.17 24.96 63.49 36.47 65.6465.90 44.17 27.87 25.26 63.16 39.07 65.0070.75 45.54 28.55 25.84 63.00 39.27 64.93

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    100/162

    Verizon

    VZ

    Walmart

    WMT

    Exxon Mobile

    XOMDJI S&P500

    31.06 53.03 35.84 9946.22 1076.9233.30 51.36 35.84 9925.25 1067.1431.09 52.29 36.72 9243.26 989.8225.81 46.75 32.99 8736.59 911.6224.25 50.83 32.02 8663.50 916.0721.46 46.87 28.81 7591.93 815.2829.89 50.97 30.40 8397.03 885.7633.15 51.31 31.64 8896.09 936.3130.67 48.15 31.77 8341.63 879.82

    30.57 45.57 31.05 8053.81 855.7027.62 45.81 31.14 7891.08 841.1528.23 49.68 31.99 7992.13 848.1830.18 53.78 32.22 8480.09 916.92

    30.56 50.24 33.56 8850.26 963.5937.00 48.08 71.68 12268.63 1406.8237.52 46.95 75.45 12354.35 1420.8638.00 48.27 77.22 12560.83 1443.76

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    101/162

    12

    345

    6789101112

    1314151617181920212223

    24

    25262728293031323334

    3536

    3738394041424344

    45

    A B C D E F G H

    Alcoa

    AA

    American

    International

    AIG

    American

    Express

    AXP

    Boeing

    BA

    Citigroup

    C

    Caterpillar

    CAT

    DuPont

    DD

    Alpha -0.0074 -0.0058 0.0020 0.0097 0.0009 0.0100 -0.0007

    Beta 1.9446 1.1873 1.2615 0.7304 1.2086 1.3915 1.0488

    R-squared 0.5646 0.3906 0.6987 0.1442 0.5050 0.4328 0.4114

    T-Alpha -0.9545 -0.8548 0.5325 1.1917 0.1653 1.3765 -0.1147

    T-Beta 8.6724 6.0965 11.5982 3.1260 7.6922 6.6532 6.3675

    Date5/1/2002 3.22% -3.16% 3.58% -4.12% 0.15% -4.39% 4.08%6/3/2002 -5.37% 1.93% -15.73% 5.38% -10.82% -6.56% -3.55%7/1/2002 -19.76% -6.53% -2.74% -8.06% -14.47% -8.28% -5.75%8/1/2002 -7.53% -1.77% 2.24% -10.88% 5.15% -2.38% -3.06%9/3/2002 -26.24% -13.73% -14.55% -8.26% -9.96% -15.93% -11.11%

    10/1/2002 13.35% 13.42% 15.64% -13.73% 22.53% 10.19% 13.41%11/1/2002 15.36% 4.07% 6.81% 14.05% 5.08% 20.04% 8.68%12/2/2002 -11.48% -11.81% -9.43% -3.18% -9.98% -8.78% -5.11%

    1/2/2003 -14.19% -6.66% 0.50% -4.33% -1.86% -3.09% -11.29%

    2/3/2003 4.45% -9.35% -5.64% -13.11% -2.97% 6.64% -2.24%3/3/2003 -5.67% 0.42% -1.03% -9.52% 3.27% 4.57% 5.80%4/1/2003 17.51% 15.86% 13.28% 8.51% 13.05% 7.31% 9.03%5/1/2003 7.09% -0.12% 9.58% 12.30% 4.91% -0.86% -0.13%6/2/2003 3.53% -4.68% 0.34% 11.23% 4.25% 6.52% -1.19%7/1/2003 8.52% 15.13% 5.73% -3.56% 5.36% 19.84% 5.37%8/1/2003 3.37% -7.48% 1.99% 12.65% -3.28% 6.27% 2.62%9/2/2003 -8.76% -3.08% 0.00% -8.53% 4.85% -4.27% -11.19%

    10/1/2003 18.77% 5.27% 4.29% 11.43% 4.82% 6.73% 0.98%11/3/2003 4.33% -4.85% -2.62% 0.19% -0.79% 3.72% 3.47%

    12/1/2003 14.70% 13.54% 5.57% 9.32% 3.17% 8.78% 10.15%1/2/2004 -10.61% 4.68% 7.21% -0.93% 2.71% -5.65% -4.44%

    2/2/2004 9.65% 6.35% 3.02% 4.20% 1.58% -3.10% 3.46%3/1/2004 -7.73% -3.56% -2.79% -5.44% 2.82% 4.31% -6.58%4/1/2004 -12.05% 0.41% -5.76% 3.86% -6.41% -1.26% 1.71%5/3/2004 2.26% 2.29% 3.52% 7.50% -3.51% -3.10% 1.43%6/1/2004 5.40% -2.70% 1.52% 10.94% 0.14% 5.30% 2.77%7/1/2004 -3.09% -0.88% -2.22% -0.68% -4.40% -7.27% -3.54%8/2/2004 1.57% 0.82% -0.47% 3.26% 5.50% -1.09% -0.61%9/1/2004 3.68% -4.56% 2.84% -1.16% -5.42% 10.11% 1.28%

    10/1/2004 -3.32% -11.32% 3.32% -3.38% 1.46% 0.62% 0.18%

    RETURN DATA, ALPHA, BETA, R-SQU

    For Dow-Jones 30 Industrials, April 2002 -

    =tintercept(B16:B75,$AH$16:$AH$75)=tslope(B16:B75,$AH$16:$AH$75)

    =INTERCEPT(B16:B75,$AH$16:$AH$75)=SLOPE(B16:B75,$AH$16:$AH$75)

    =RSQ(B16:B75,$AH$16:$AH$75)

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    102/162

    4647484950

    515253

    545556575859606162

    63646566676869707172

    737475

    A B C D E F G H

    11/1/2004 4.94% 4.24% 4.84% 7.49% 0.86% 12.83% 6.33%12/1/2004 -7.87% 3.71% 1.19% -3.42% 7.39% 6.29% 7.92%1/3/2005 -6.24% 0.94% -5.29% -2.29% 1.80% -8.57% -3.10%2/1/2005 8.97% 0.77% 1.48% 8.76% -1.87% 6.46% 12.10%3/1/2005 -5.55% -18.50% -5.04% 6.15% -6.01% -3.86% -3.95%

    4/1/2005 -4.60% -8.60% 2.58% 1.80% 5.35% -3.32% -8.40%5/2/2005 -6.31% 8.86% 2.14% 7.51% 0.32% 6.66% -0.50%6/1/2005 -3.67% 4.70% -0.93% 3.24% -1.89% 1.26% -7.83%

    7/1/2005 7.10% 3.55% 3.27% 0.02% -5.09% 12.81% -0.77%8/1/2005 -4.08% -1.43% 0.44% 1.90% 0.61% 2.89% -6.68%9/1/2005 -9.25% 4.56% 3.90% 1.38% 3.93% 5.71% -1.02%

    10/3/2005 -0.55% 4.49% -0.77% -5.00% 0.58% -10.64% 6.22%11/1/2005 12.69% 3.54% 3.25% 5.74% 6.84% 9.43% 3.40%12/1/2005 7.61% 1.60% 0.08% 2.96% -0.04% -0.02% -0.59%1/3/2006 6.32% -4.13% 2.15% -2.80% -4.09% 16.54% -8.20%2/1/2006 -6.71% 1.37% 2.69% 6.64% 0.61% 7.36% 3.66%3/1/2006 4.16% -0.18% -2.49% 6.97% 1.82% -1.75% 4.76%

    4/3/2006 10.01% -1.28% 2.59% 6.84% 6.63% 5.64% 4.38%5/1/2006 -5.85% -6.82% 1.01% 0.10% -1.31% -3.75% -2.80%6/1/2006 2.00% -2.93% -2.10% -1.63% -2.15% 2.08% -2.22%7/3/2006 -7.74% 2.71% -1.94% -5.64% 0.13% -4.54% -4.77%8/1/2006 -4.16% 5.32% 0.93% -2.92% 3.15% -6.59% 1.72%9/1/2006 -1.93% 3.75% 6.52% 5.14% 0.64% -0.82% 6.94%

    10/2/2006 3.06% 1.37% 3.31% 1.27% 0.98% -7.62% 6.67%11/1/2006 8.04% 4.82% 1.57% 10.66% -0.16% 2.15% 3.23%12/1/2006 -3.62% 1.88% 3.27% 0.35% 11.62% -1.14% 3.73%1/3/2007 7.89% -4.58% -3.88% 0.81% -1.02% 4.88% 1.72%

    2/1/2007 3.38% -1.73% -2.34% -2.22% -8.05% 0.56% 3.06%3/1/2007 1.46% 0.16% -0.83% 1.87% 1.91% 3.96% -2.60%4/2/2007 2.01% 0.01% -0.52% 1.77% 0.45% 0.89% -0.22%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    103/162

    12

    345

    6789101112

    1314151617181920212223

    24

    25262728293031323334

    3536

    3738394041424344

    45

    I J K L M N O P

    Disney

    DIS

    General

    Electric

    GE

    General

    Motors

    GM

    Home

    Depot

    HD

    Noneywell

    HON

    Hewlett

    Packard

    HPQ

    International

    Business

    Machines

    IBM

    Intel

    INTC

    0.0017 0.0003 -0.0140 -0.0098 -0.0018 0.0071 -0.0047 -0.01591.2131 0.7474 1.2860 1.5274 1.6276 1.8433 1.6008 2.13040.3699 0.2533 0.1869 0.4791 0.6100 0.5260 0.5540 0.44730.2410 0.0583 -1.1417 -1.3563 -0.2964 0.8885 -0.7142 -1.4703

    5.8350 4.4352 3.6511 7.3042 9.5241 8.0223 8.4877 6.8513

    -1.14% -1.31% -2.42% -10.65% 7.13% 11.05% -3.83% -3.45%-19.27% -6.34% -15.07% -12.55% -10.66% -21.78% -11.10% -41.31%

    -6.38% 10.30% -13.83% -17.32% -8.52% -7.70% -2.25% 2.78%-12.29% -6.57% 3.93% 6.42% -7.14% -5.27% 7.06% -11.82%

    -3.48% -19.43% -20.71% -23.10% -32.43% -13.44% -25.67% -18.28%9.78% 2.40% -15.70% 10.10% 10.02% 30.33% 30.28% 22.00%

    17.15% 7.12% 19.20% -8.97% 9.11% 20.92% 9.82% 18.88%-18.29% -9.98% -7.44% -9.20% -8.04% -11.06% -11.47% -29.31%

    7.07% -5.10% -1.44% -13.94% 1.82% 0.30% 0.90% 0.54%

    -2.59% 4.64% -5.91% 11.54% -5.77% -9.42% -0.12% 9.83%-0.18% 5.84% -0.43% 4.04% -6.89% -1.41% 0.61% -5.82%9.20% 14.40% 6.95% 14.42% 9.95% 4.76% 7.92% 12.24%5.15% -2.56% -0.61% 14.39% 11.23% 17.92% 3.81% 12.47%0.47% 0.58% 1.87% 2.11% 2.42% 9.17% -6.49% -0.05%

    10.43% -0.85% 3.90% -5.96% 5.21% -0.59% -1.53% 17.93%-6.66% 3.89% 10.67% 3.01% 3.14% -6.02% 1.13% 13.92%-1.63% 1.45% -0.40% -0.75% -9.57% -2.50% 7.42% -3.81%11.56% -2.73% 4.17% 15.19% 15.01% 14.16% 1.29% 17.98%

    1.95% -1.18% 1.43% -0.85% -2.43% -2.56% 1.37% 1.86%

    1.96% 8.41% 22.17% -3.32% 11.88% 5.83% 2.34% -4.56%2.87% 8.21% -7.21% -0.06% 7.72% 3.52% 6.82% -4.88%

    9.99% -2.76% -2.18% 2.35% -2.47% -4.66% -2.63% -4.27%-5.95% -6.33% -1.81% 3.03% -3.50% 0.96% -4.94% -7.12%-8.19% -1.90% 0.34% -5.97% 2.12% -14.80% -4.08% -5.57%1.90% 3.84% -3.24% 2.05% -2.00% 7.50% 0.68% 10.55%8.24% 4.63% 2.60% -1.78% 8.34% -0.29% -0.49% -3.38%

    -9.88% 2.59% -7.70% -4.31% 2.66% -4.61% -1.23% -12.38%-2.80% -1.40% -3.14% 8.33% -3.91% -11.86% -2.56% -13.40%0.46% 2.98% 2.80% 6.98% -0.32% 5.12% 1.23% -5.95%

    11.17% 1.58% -9.71% 4.67% -6.26% -0.49% 4.57% 10.40%

    RED

    pril 2007

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    104/162

    4647484950

    515253

    545556575859606162

    63646566676869707172

    737475

    I J K L M N O P

    6.40% 3.58% 1.39% 1.82% 5.31% 6.92% 5.08% 0.70%4.23% 3.78% 3.76% 2.33% 0.21% 5.16% 4.50% 4.45%2.93% -1.03% -8.48% -3.52% 1.59% -6.82% -5.38% -4.13%

    -2.42% -1.97% -1.86% -3.05% 5.92% 5.99% -0.72% 6.98%2.77% 2.41% -19.31% -4.28% -2.03% 5.74% -1.30% -3.20%

    -8.44% 0.38% -9.67% -7.82% -3.95% -6.93% -17.93% 1.24%3.86% 0.76% 18.35% 10.67% 1.85% 9.50% -0.82% 14.00%

    -8.61% -4.51% 7.51% -0.90% 1.11% 4.69% -1.80% -3.55%

    1.81% -0.43% 7.99% 11.20% 6.98% 4.61% 11.75% 4.20%-1.77% -2.63% -5.98% -7.36% -2.03% 12.01% -3.22% -5.07%-4.30% 0.84% -11.07% -5.58% -2.07% 5.31% -0.49% -4.25%1.01% 0.71% -11.09% 7.34% -9.20% -4.04% 2.05% -4.79%2.28% 5.20% -20.57% 2.03% 7.17% 5.66% 8.47% 13.05%

    -2.90% -1.18% -11.99% -3.16% 1.92% -3.30% -7.83% -6.64%5.45% -6.80% 21.41% 0.18% 3.10% 8.53% -1.11% -16.06%

    10.08% 1.10% -15.76% 3.86% 6.92% 5.09% -1.06% -2.69%-0.36% 5.67% 4.62% 0.70% 4.35% 0.52% 2.74% -5.66%

    0.25% -0.56% 7.30% -5.76% -0.62% -1.33% -0.16% 2.59%8.70% -0.96% 17.23% -4.63% -2.63% -0.28% -2.65% -9.77%-1.67% -3.12% 10.10% -5.90% -2.17% -1.92% -3.93% 5.27%-1.05% -0.81% 7.88% -3.09% -4.04% 0.73% 0.76% -5.38%-0.14% 4.11% -9.13% -1.21% 0.65% 13.60% 4.90% 8.90%4.17% 4.29% 13.07% 6.04% 5.46% 0.58% 1.19% 4.98%1.78% -0.55% 4.88% 2.89% 2.95% 5.43% 11.93% 3.66%4.91% 0.49% -17.09% 2.30% 2.56% 1.85% -0.12% 0.80%4.54% 6.06% 4.97% 5.61% 5.13% 4.50% 5.54% -5.55%2.59% -3.16% 6.69% 1.42% 0.97% 4.94% 2.03% 3.46%

    -2.65% -2.43% -2.23% -2.86% 2.07% -9.51% -6.16% -4.86%0.52% 1.28% -4.03% -6.89% -0.74% 2.19% 1.41% -3.74%1.38% -0.97% 4.03% 3.42% 2.57% 4.05% 2.37% 2.33%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    105/162

    12

    345

    6789101112

    1314151617181920212223

    24

    25262728293031323334

    3536

    3738394041424344

    45

    Q R S T U V W X Y

    Johnson

    &

    Johnson

    JNJ

    JP

    Morgan

    Chase

    JPM

    Coca

    Cola

    KO

    McDonal

    ds

    MCD

    3M

    Company

    MMM

    Altria

    Group

    MO

    Merck

    MRK

    Microsoft

    MSFT

    Pfizer

    PFE

    -0.0007 -0.0002 -0.0028 0.0019 0.0016 0.0084 -0.0028 -0.0007 -0.00670.3475 1.8394 0.5737 1.5627 0.7058 1.0089 0.8005 0.9650 0.65610.0890 0.5957 0.1974 0.5299 0.1985 0.1569 0.1211 0.3067 0.1657

    -0.1391 -0.0360 -0.5281 0.2771 0.2469 0.7906 -0.2893 -0.1117 -1.0060

    2.3806 9.2439 3.7774 8.0849 3.7902 3.2850 2.8276 5.0657 3.3935

    -3.67% 2.40% 0.10% 5.30% 0.21% 5.07% 4.96% -2.61% -4.58%-16.03% -5.81% 1.16% -5.11% -1.97% -25.82% -11.36% 7.18% 1.14%

    0.65% -29.61% -11.45% -13.96% 2.29% 5.28% -2.07% -13.10% -7.88%3.57% 5.62% 2.08% -4.07% -0.23% 8.25% 1.84% 2.25% 2.63%

    -0.42% -32.94% -5.75% -29.65% -12.77% -24.03% -9.27% -11.53% -13.07%8.28% 10.62% -3.14% 2.51% 14.36% 4.91% 17.11% 20.10% 9.03%

    -2.66% 19.31% -1.38% 3.51% 2.75% -7.75% 9.10% 7.57% -0.36%-5.97% -4.76% -4.02% -14.03% -5.18% 8.77% -4.21% -10.93% -3.08%

    -0.20% -1.39% -8.03% -12.14% 1.02% -6.80% -2.18% -8.58% -0.22%

    -1.76% -2.89% -0.60% -4.50% 1.17% 2.02% -4.89% 0.20% -1.79%9.83% 4.47% 1.23% 6.01% 3.64% -23.65% 4.48% 2.13% 4.40%

    -2.64% 22.76% -0.19% 16.76% -3.11% 2.61% 6.03% 5.49% -1.34%-3.19% 11.28% 12.04% 9.12% 0.88% 29.49% -4.57% -3.83% 1.34%-5.01% 3.94% 2.30% 16.37% 1.96% 11.02% 9.21% 4.10% 9.61%0.19% 3.53% -3.15% 4.22% 8.33% -12.72% -9.12% 2.94% -2.34%

    -3.89% -2.40% -3.27% -2.62% 2.06% 2.98% -3.90% 0.44% -10.44%-0.13% 0.30% -0.81% 4.90% -3.09% 7.72% 1.33% 4.69% 1.54%1.64% 5.45% 7.70% 6.02% 13.28% 5.97% -13.45% -5.61% 3.94%

    -1.59% -1.39% 0.70% 4.03% 0.64% 11.17% -8.62% -1.64% 6.52%

    4.67% 3.69% 8.74% -3.17% 7.31% 5.82% 13.81% 6.25% 5.09%3.36% 6.64% -3.02% 3.58% -7.24% 2.14% 2.98% 1.05% 3.62%

    1.35% 5.31% 1.45% 9.50% -0.91% 3.47% 1.01% -4.17% 0.51%-6.11% 2.26% 1.19% 0.94% 4.81% -4.36% -7.68% -6.23% -4.48%6.33% -10.16% 0.54% -4.81% 5.48% 1.67% 6.16% 4.74% 2.02%3.58% -2.02% 1.53% -3.10% -1.81% -14.37% 0.65% 0.35% -0.71%

    -0.02% 5.10% -1.23% -1.50% 6.25% 5.67% 1.19% 8.54% -3.05%-0.78% -2.90% -14.05% 5.61% -8.88% -5.00% -4.64% -0.28% -7.00%5.50% 5.85% 1.92% -1.80% 0.45% 2.78% -0.85% -3.96% 2.73%

    -3.10% 0.39% -10.44% 3.68% -2.95% -2.49% -30.07% 1.30% -6.57%

    3.59% -2.06% 1.51% 3.95% -3.04% 2.95% -5.29% 1.12% -5.52%

  • 8/13/2019 financial modeling chapter 2

    106/162

    4647484950

    515253

    545556575859606162

    63646566676869707172

    737475

    Q R S T U V W X Y

    3.74% -2.48% -2.75% 7.12% 3.01% 17.11% -11.10% 6.63% -3.56%5.01% 3.55% 5.78% 4.23% 3.06% 7.29% 15.10% -0.35% -3.24%2.00% -3.52% -0.38% 1.01% 2.76% 4.37% -13.59% -1.67% -10.68%1.82% -2.13% 3.13% 2.11% 0.00% 2.81% 12.21% -4.04% 9.18%2.35% -5.46% -2.03% -6.02% 2.06% 0.71% 3.29% -4.00% -0.08%

    2.16% 3.52% 4.17% -6.05% -11.38% -0.60% 4.61% 4.57% 3.37%-1.75% 0.75% 2.69% 5.41% 0.78% 3.25% -4.37% 2.29% 3.34%-3.18% -1.23% -6.02% -10.91% -5.84% -2.69% -4.01% -3.80% -1.15%

    -1.61% 0.45% 4.71% 11.65% 3.67% 3.49% 0.84% 3.04% -3.98%-0.39% -3.62% 0.53% 4.01% -4.68% 5.42% -8.20% 6.99% -3.23%-0.16% 0.12% -1.22% 3.14% 3.05% 5.28% -3.68% -6.23% -2.01%-1.05% 8.63% -0.95% -5.78% 3.51% 1.81% 3.65% -0.12% -13.84%-0.88% 4.36% 0.44% 8.89% 3.77% -3.05% 5.36% 7.72% -1.67%-2.70% 3.68% -5.72% -0.36% -1.26% 3.66% 7.89% -5.67% 9.53%-4.36% 1.00% 2.61% 3.76% -6.33% -3.23% 8.11% 7.35% 9.64%0.77% 3.44% 1.42% -0.29% 1.77% -0.62% 1.03% -4.32% 2.90%2.68% 1.23% 0.49% -1.60% 2.81% -0.37% 2.17% 1.28% -4.96%

    -1.04% 9.39% 0.22% 0.62% 12.12% 3.20% -2.33% -11.95% 1.