financial statement airtel

8/9/2019 financial statement airtel

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Bharti AirtelINDIA

6 March 2009

BHARTI IN Outperform

Stock price as of 05 Mar 09 Rs 590.0012-month target Rs 975.00Upside/downside % +65.3Valuation Rs 975.00- DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 6.0%, RFR 9.0%,

TGR 3.5%)

GICS sector telecommunication services

Market cap Rs bn 1,12030-day avg turnover US$m 55.6Market cap US$m 21,730Number shares on issue m 1,898

Investment fundamentalsYear end 31 Mar 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E

Total revenue bn 270.3 371.5 448.5 504.9EBITDA bn 113.7 153.3 190.0 221.6EBITDA growth % 52.6 34.8 23.9 16.7EBIT bn 76.5 107.7 138.0 162.0Reported profit bn 67.0 81.2 111.2 125.5Adjusted profit bn 67.0 81.2 111.2 125.5

EPS rep Rs 35.31 42.79 58.60 66.17EPS adj Rs 35.31 42.79 58.60 66.17

EPS adj growth % 57.2 21.2 36.9 12.9PE adj x 16.7 13.8 10.1 8.9

Total DPS Rs 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00Total div yield % 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7

ROA % 19.8 19.5 20.0 20.6ROE % 37.4 31.1 32.3 29.2EV/EBITDA x 10.3 7.6 6.2 5.3Net debt/equity % 18.7 18.8 12.4 1.3Price/book x 5.0 3.7 2.9 2.4

BHARTI IN rel SENSEX performance, &rec history

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2009 (allfigures in INR unless noted)

Analysts

Shubham Majumder9122 66533049 [email protected] Mohta91 22 6653 3050 [email protected] Smart852 3922 3565 [email protected]

Termination charges: Risk assessmentEvent

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) is reviewing the interconnection

usage charges for telecom operators. As part of the ongoing consultation

process, key telecom players recently presented their views to TRAI. We

outline the contrarian stands of major telcos on key issues of termination and

interconnect. We also analyse the impact on Bhartis FY3/10E revenue,

EBITDA & EPS due to any potential lowering of termination charges (page 2).

Impact Views espoused in presentations are in line with the previously articulated

stands of the respective operators. Even if the sector regulator decides to

reduce the termination charge, it is unlikely to be firmed up or implemented before

the new government is in place following General Elections in April-May 2009.

Our sensitivity analysis implies limited downside risks to FY3/10E EPS. A

33% cut in the termination charge to Rs0.2 per minute from Rs0.3 will have only

a 1% impact on EPS (assuming no change in Bhartis tariff plans). In a worst

case scenario of Bharti deciding to cut both on-net and off-net tariffs by Rs0.50

per minute (50% of the reduction in termination charge, implying 50% pass

through of termination charge to subscribers), then EPS would be 11% lower

than current forecasts. The worst case scenario is highly unlikely in our view.

Incumbent GSM operators who have argued for no change in theexisting termination charge, have argued that cost based methodologies for

arriving at termination charge are most efficient and are an international best

practise. We note that the current termination charge of Rs0.30 per minute

was arrived at in February 2004, using forward looking cost methodology.

RCOM has favoured reducing termination charge to zero. RCOM (RCOM

IN, Rs136, OP, TP: Rs275) believes that the termination charge is the biggest

hurdle to further tariff declines. RCOM has favoured the Bill and Keep (BAK)

interconnection regime. Under BAK, the originating carrier bills its customers

for calls and keeps the corresponding revenue. The originating carrier does

not compensate the terminating carrier for call termination expenses.

Greenfield operators have called for asymmetric termination charges.New entrants want the regulator to introduce asymmetric termination charges

to help them counter the scale advantages of the incumbents. They argue that

it will be difficult for them to match or undercut the incumbent operators On-

net call charges. We maintain that business economics for new entrants in

Indian wireless will remain challenging irrespective of IUC changes.

Earnings revision

No change.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: Rs975.00 based on a DCF methodology.

Catalyst: Consolidation in revenue market share and launch of Indus Towers.

Action and recommendation

Reiterate OP on Bharti. Review of the termination charge does add to the risk,

but we believe that the market is already factoring in worst case outcomes.

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover ofthis document or on our website www.mac uarie.com.au/research/disclosures.


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Macquarie Research Equities - Flyer Bharti Airtel

6 March 2009 2

Analysis

Lower termination charges will not have a material impact on Bhartis financials. We

estimate Bhartis net interconnect revenues at ~2% of its total top-line. In Figure 1 below, we

analyse the impact of a cut in the termination charge to Rs0.20 from current Rs0.30 on Bhartis

FY3/10E revenues, EBITDA and EPS.

For scenario 1, we have assumed that Bharti would not make any change to its tariff plans

following a cut in the termination charge. Since Bharti is a net recipient of interconnect revenues,

lower termination charges would have a negative impact on the companys financials. Even so, we

estimate only 1% hit to our FY3/10E EPS in this scenario. We highlight that lower termination

charges would result in 4% reduction in gross revenues, but the impact at the EBITDA level would

be much less due to the simultaneous reduction in network access charges.

For scenario 2, we have assumed Bharti would cut its outgoing tariff in a manner that it retains

half the benefit from reduced termination charges and passes the remaining to consumers. Based

on these assumptions, we estimate Bhartis FY3/10E revenues and EBITDA to be 8% and EPS to

be 11% lower than our current forecasts.

Too early to pass the verdict on Bhartis pricing action, post the review of termination

charges. Bharti management has reiterated its focus on consolidating Bhartis wireless revenueshare in the Indian telecom market. As a result, we believe investor expectations of a cut in

Bhartis retail tariff plans, in response to potential cut in the termination charge, is not a given.

Fig 1 We see limited downside risks to our FY3/10E EPS for Bharti, unless Bharti decides to cut tariifs

FY3/10E (Amount in Rsmillion)

Revenues EBITDA EPS Comments

Base Case 448,469 189,967 58.6Scenario 1 - Assumingtermination charges are cut toRs0.2 BUT there is no changein outgoing tariffs, implyingcompany retains the benefit oflower termination charges.

429,151 188,674 58.0 33% reduction in terminationcharge will have little impact onBhartis EBITDA and EPS, if we

assume no change in tariff

Deviation from Base Case (%) -4.3% -0.7% -1.0%

Scenario 2 - Assumingtermination charges are cut toRs0.2 AND Bharti cutsoutgoing tariff in a manner thatit retains half the benefit fromreduced termination chargeand passes the remaining toconsumers.

413,229 174,822 51.9 We have assumed Bharti would

retain 50% of the 10 paise

reduction in termination charge

and passes the rest to consumers

in form of tariff cut.

Bhartis EBITDA and EPS will be

hit by 8% and 11%, respectively

due to assumed 5 paise tariff cut.

Deviation from Base Case (%) -7.9% -8.0% -11.3%

Source: Macquarie Research, March 2009

We present the view and counterview of the Indian operators on majoraspects of a termination regime

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India has received three presentations on the interconnect

charges review: (1) presentation from incumbent GSM operators Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar,

Ideal Cellular and Aircel, (2) presentation from Reliance Communications, and (3) presentation

from greenfield entrants Datacom, Loop, Swan and Unitech.

Issue 1: Calling Party Pays regime vs Bill and Keep

Under a Calling Party Pays (CPP) regime, cellular operators charge the originator of the call and

no charge is levied on the receiving party. The originating carrier compensates the receiving party

operator by paying a termination charge. Under a Bill and Keep (BAK) approach, the originating

carrier bills its customers for calls and keeps the corresponding revenue. The originating carrier

does not compensate the terminating carrier for the call termination expense.


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6 March 2009 3

We note that India switched from a Receiving Party Pays (RPP) to Calling Party Pays (CPP)

regime in 2003. Under RPP, there is no termination charge since both the caller and receiver pay

their respective operator for the call made. None of the three parties have advocated the switch

from CPP to RPP.

Incumbent GSM operators view: The incumbent GSM operators favoured CPP over BAK. The

GSM incumbents have argued that BAK creates a need for highly prescriptive technical networkregulation to manage inevitable congestion and quality issues. The operators believe that the BAK

regime would incentivise operators to dump more traffic onto their competitors, resulting in

network congestion and deteriorating service quality.

RCOMs view: BAK is a simpler interconnection regime and results in an efficient network

utilisation. RCOM also highlighted in its presentation that a switch to the BAK approach would

save recurring transaction costs involved in determining, negotiating, and setting the termination

charges for various platforms. RCOM believes BAK would reduce the price floor for the calls made

from PCO and Fixed Wireless Phone. We highlight that RCOM has the highest share of PCO

among private telco operators in India and reduced call charges from PCO and FWP (if the

termination charge for calls made from PCO and FWP is reduced) would be a significant positive

for the company.

Greenfield operators view: This issue has not been discussed by the new entrants in theirpresentation.

Case Study on Sri Lanka wireless market. Both incumbent GSM operators and RCOM have

used the Sri Lankan wireless market as an example to support their argument. RCOM has argued

that higher wireless penetration in Sri Lanka (49% in 2Q08 vs 31% for India in January 2009)

demonstrates the contribution of the BAK interconnection regime in increasing wireless

penetration. In contrast, incumbent GSM operators have highlighted that the BAK regime has not

resulted in affordable telecom services in Sri Lanka. The GSM players have noted that the

outgoing call rate in Sri Lanka was Rs0.13 and the incoming call rate was Rs0.4 before Bharti

launched its services in Sri Lanka.

Issue 2: Symmetric termination charges vs asymmetric termination

charges Symmetric termination charges imply the same termination charges for all operators. In contrast,

asymmetric termination charges are used by the regulators to favour one set of operators over

others to meet specific objectives, which could range from increasing wireless penetration, higher

competition in the sector, or providing a level paying field to new operators in a market.

Incumbent GSM operators view: The operators have not explicitly commented on asymmetric

termination charges, but given their scale and incumbency advantage we do not expect the

incumbent GSM operators to favour the asymmetric termination charges.

RCOMs view: RCOM has argued that if TRAI needs to stick to a cost based approach for arriving

at termination costs, the regulator should introduce asymmetric mobile termination charges.

RCOM has launched its GSM operations in 14 circles in January, completing its pan India GSM

footprint. As a result, asymmetric mobile termination would benefit the company to compete withexisting GSM operators Bharti and Vodafone Essar. We believe that RCOMs GSM offering is

the only credible threat to Bhartis strong position in the Indian wireless market.

Greenfield operators view: New entrants have requested the authority for introduction of

asymmetric termination charges. Greenfield operators have highlighted that the cost of providing

same interconnection differs greatly between the incumbents and the new entrants due to a

phased roll-out of networks by incumbents over a long period of time and incumbents

substantially higher subscriber market share. New entrants have urged the regulator to take a

glide path approach towards adoption of symmetric termination charges. According to the

presentation, the glide path is determined based on the time it would take for the elimination of

cost differences between the operators. For example, in Belgium, the regulators objective was to

eliminate the asymmetry in the MTC over a reasonable time frame (2 years) based on the costs of

an efficient operator.


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6 March 2009 4

Issue 3: Mobile termination charge of Rs0.3 per minute vs Rs0.08 perminute

The existing mobile termination charge of Rs0.3 per minute was introduced in 2004. TRAI had left

the termination rates unchanged following its review of the same in 2006.

Incumbent GSM operators view: Telecom operators having existing GSM operations believe

that issues (such as low wireless penetration in India and the need for operators to build network

capacity to support subscriber growth) highlighted by TARI in 2006 for maintaining the termination

charges are still relevant and as such there is no reason to cut the termination charges. The key

arguments made by the GSM operators in favour of maintaining the current termination charge

are:

Reduction in the termination charge would slow down rural coverage expansion. The

presentation highlights that investment for rural coverage is significantly higher than the urban

infrastructure. The operators have indicated the rural coverage capex (Towers, additional

electronics, backhaul connectivity and rights of way) is 1.5 to 4 times the urban site capex.

Opex (diesel, security, maintenance and higher spares) in rural areas is 1.4 to 3 times higher

than the urban site. As such, if the termination charge is reduced, it will not be economically

feasible for the operators to serve the rural customer.

The existing termination charge is already below the average national termination

charge derived using a cost based international methodology. Incumbent GSM operators

have cited an independent third party study to show that the average national termination

charge for the telecom operators would be Rs0.35 (based on Long Range Incremental Cost

Methodology). Operators have highlighted that the current termination charge is already lower

at Rs0.30.

RCOMs view: RCOM has cited another third party study on calculating cost based termination

charges. According to the study based on FL-Long Range Incremental Cost Methodology (LRIC),

incumbent operators should charge Rs0.08 and new operators should charge Rs0.22 as a

termination charge. The RCOM presentation mentions that new operators would be willing to

accept Rs0.08 as the revised termination charge despite their higher cost base.

Greenfield operators view: The operators have not referenced any study or presented the

regulator with an alternative termination charge in their presentation.

Link to the presentations made by the respective operators to TRAI on Interconnect Usage

Charges is produced below for your quick reference:

Incumbent GSM operators (Bharti + Vodafone + Idea + Aircel)

http://www.trai.gov.in/WritereadData/trai/upload/misc/103/pptBharti.pdf

Reliance Communications

http://www.trai.gov.in/WritereadData/trai/upload/misc/103/pptReliance.pdf

Greenfield entrants (Datacom + Loop + Swan + Unitech)

http://www.trai.gov.in/WritereadData/trai/upload/misc/103/pptUnitech.pdf


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6 March 2009 5

Fig 2 Bharti now at its lowest 1-year forward rolling EV/EBIDTA

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Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, March 2009

Fig 3 Bharti is trading at its lowest 1-year forward rolling PER mutliple

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6March2009

6

Fig 4 Macquarie Global emerging market telecom valuation

Macquarie - Global Emerging Market Telecom Valuation

Bloomberg Reco Price EV/EBITDA (x) PER (x) PEG ROE EBITDA C

Company Name Ticker lcy FY3/10E FY3/11E FY3/10E FY3/11E (FY3/09-3/11E) (FY3/09E, %) (FY3/09-3/11

Bharti Airtel BHARTI IN OP 590 6.2 5.1 10.1 8.9 0.6 33.9

Reliance Communications RCOM IN OP 136 5.1 4.2 5.2 4.6 0.9 23.0

Idea Cellular IDEA IN UP 44 5.8 5.1 13.4 12.7 2.0 23.1

MTNL MTNL IN UP 63 6.1 6.2 68.7 -14.1 na 1.0

China Mobile 941 HK OP 66 4.2 3.8 10.3 9.8 2.2 27.7

China Unicom 762 HK UP 8 2.8 2.7 10.6 16.5 -0.5 9.1

Indosat ISAT IJ N 4,275 3.8 3.7 9.6 8.4 0.7 12.4

SK Telecom 017670 KS OP 188,500 3.9 3.5 9.2 7.8 0.7 13.0

KT Freetel 032390 KS OP 26,900 3.3 2.7 17.6 10.2 -1.6 3.8

LG Telecom 032640 KQ OP 7,900 3.1 2.8 6.5 6.1 0.6 15.1

Digi.Com DIGI MK N 21 7.1 6.3 12.2 10.9 4.2 65.7

Telekom Malaysia Intl TI MK OP 3 4.0 3.3 8.0 7.5 -10.9 4.4

Globe GLO PM OP 795 3.0 2.7 6.9 6.6 1.0 24.1

Far EasTone 4904 TT N 34 5.0 5.1 9.7 9.5 2.5 14.1

Taiwan Mobile 3045 TT N 47 5.3 5.2 8.5 8.6 5.4 37.4

AIS ADVANC TB UP 81 5.8 5.9 13.8 13.1 -1.1 23.9

TAC DTAC TB UP 29 4.4 4.4 6.2 5.7 -0.3 17.0

MobileOne M1 SP OP 2 5.4 5.5 9.4 9.8 na 71.9

MTN Group Ltd MTN SJ OP 8,793 3.1 2.8 7.2 5.8 0.3 32.4Orascom Telecom ORTE EY NR 18 4.9 4.5 7.1 6.6

Vivo Participacoes Sa VIVO3 BZ NR 38 3.1 3.0 10.9 8.7

America Movil AMXL MM NR 19 5.1 4.9 8.1 7.1

Etihad Etisalat Co EEC AB NR 34 5.8 5.7 9.0 8.1

Saudi Telecom Co STC AB NR 37 5.3 5.1 5.5 5.3

Qatar Telecom QTEL QD NR 92 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.4

Average 4.6 4.3 9.1 8.4

Average (ex-China Mobile) 4.6 4.3 9.1 8.3

RCOM's valuation (discount)/premium to Bharti -17% -17% -48% -48%

Idea's valuation (discount)/premium to Bharti -6% 0% 33% 43%

Note: Prices as of 5 March 2009

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, March 2009

RCOM is trading at a 17% discount to Bhartion March 2010E EV/EBITDA


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6 March 2009 7

Bharti Airtel detailed financial statements

Fig 5 Bharti Airtel annual income statement, fiscal year-end March

Particulars (Rs m) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E

RevenuesServices 114,638 184,152 269,004 368,886 445,410 501,493

Indefeasible right of use sales 418 436 436 436 436 436

Equipment 1,160 607 810 2,173 2,623 2,953

Total revenues 116,215 185,196 270,250 371,495 448,469 504,882

Operating expenses

Access & Interconnect Charges 32,933 48,330 68,011 89,875 103,869 112,162

(% of total revenues) 28.3% 26.1% 25.2% 24.2% 23.2% 22.2%

Network operations cost 11,742 21,100 33,001 57,646 67,270 70,683


Employee costs 8,244 12,489 14,768 17,410 22,423 25,244


Costs of equipment sales 1,169 589 661 2,813 4,485 5,049(% of total revenues) 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0%

SG&A expenses 18,912 28,416 40,094 50,425 60,455 70,118


Pre-operating cost 120 9 - - - -


Total operating expense 73,120 110,932 156,535 218,169 258,502 283,257


EBITDA 43,096 74,264 113,715 153,326 189,967 221,625

EBITDA margin 37.1% 40.1% 42.1% 41.3% 42.4% 43.9%

Interest expense (2,958) (3,044) (4,054) (29,578) (5,053) (6,069)

Interest income 446 1,606 1,713 13,174 2,713 3,371

Depreciation (15,610) (24,973) (37,260) (45,592) (51,917) (59,666)Share of profits in associates / JV (5) (2) (1) (392)

Other income 499 1,064 2,740 1,448 1,665 1,831

Non operating expenses (103) (54) (317) (481)

Profit before taxes (PBT) 25,366 48,860 76,537 91,905 137,375 161,092

Income tax (expense) / benefit (2,539) (5,822) (8,378) (8,806) (23,354) (32,218)

Effective tax rate 10.0% 11.9% 10.9% 9.6% 17.0% 20.0%

Profit after taxes (PAT) 22,826 43,039 68,159 83,099 114,021 128,874

(Profit) / loss to minority shareholders (260) (467) (1,151) (1,909) (2,854) (3,347)

Adjusted net profit 22,567 42,572 67,008 81,189 111,167 125,527

Adjusted diluted EPS 12.0 22.5 35.3 42.8 58.6 66.2

YoY growth (%)Service revenues 45.6 60.6 46.1 37.1 20.7 12.6

Total revenues 45.2 59.4 45.9 37.5 20.7 12.6

Operating expenses 44.8 51.7 41.1 39.4 18.5 9.6

SG&A 49.5 50.3 41.1 25.8 19.9 16.0

EBITDA 45.9 72.3 53.1 34.8 23.9 16.7

Net profit after taxes 50.7 88.6 57.4 24.8 33.1 12.9

Diluted EPS 50.7 87.2 57.3 24.7 33.1 12.9

Key parameters

ROE 29.5% 37.4% 37.4% 31.1% 32.3% 29.2%

RoCE 14.7% 19.5% 20.2% 19.8% 20.4% 21.2%

Fixed asset turnover (X) 0.82 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.86

Total asset turnover (X) 0.34 0.37 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.34



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6 March 2009 8

Fig 6 Bharti Airtel annual balance sheet, fiscal year-end March


ASSETS

Cash and cash equivalents 2,649 7,464 6,777 9,483 13,372 27,356

Accounts receivable, net 10,574 13,093 15,986 20,800 25,802 29,048

Unbilled receivables 3,629 4,890 12,076 13,582 12,287 13,832Inventories 381 912 1,142 1,096 2,457 2,766

Short term investments 2,527 2,004 48,086 44,773 54,050 60,849

Deferred taxes on income 1,562 1,178 2,770 5,494 6,632 7,466

Derivative financial instruments 532 729 2,992 4,750 4,750 4,750

Restricted cash 189 134 85 84 84 84

Prepaid expenses/ current assets 9,590 13,711 23,522 31,021 25,802 29,048

Due from related parties 675 729 346 9,845 11,885 13,380

Total current assets 32,308 44,843 113,782 140,929 157,122 188,580

Property and equipment, net 142,411 210,604 313,407 444,048 535,812 584,724

Acquired intangible assets 14,873 14,116 13,204 13,478 13,478 13,478

Goodwill 23,687 23,684 27,043 27,043 27,043 27,043Investment in associates and JV 190 182 108 112 112 112

Investments 500 500 - - - -

Restricted cash, non-current 56 54 58 54 54 54

Deferred taxes on income - 20 - - - -

Other assets 3,218 3,887 5,041 8,495 10,255 11,545

Total assets 217,243 297,888 472,643 634,159 743,876 825,537

LIABILITIES

Current liabilities

Short-term debt/current portion of long-term debt 12,892 10,925 19,348 22,458 23,341 18,848

Trade payables 14,130 16,877 18,749 28,365 31,870 34,922

Equipment supply payables 25,041 42,633 61,069 90,252 102,693 112,527

Accrued expenses 8,313 12,523 19,543 26,985 29,745 32,594

Unearned income 12,690 17,035 25,080 37,602 29,745 32,594

Unearned income- indefeasible right to use sales 336 336 336 436 436 436

Derivative financial instruments 1,583 1,981 3,184 239 239 239

Due to related parties 50 30 71 84 92

Other current liabilities 3,361 4,295 6,826 12,732 15,085 16,530

Deferred taxes on income - 14 - - - -

Total current liabilities 78,396 106,649 154,135 219,140 233,239 248,782

Long-term debt, net of current portion 34,503 41,536 77,715 89,832 93,362 75,392

Deferred taxes on income 3,508 3,616 5,301 4,674 5,642 6,352

Unearned income- Indefeasible r ight to use sales 4,136 3,800 3,464 3,296 3,296 3,296

Other liabilities 3,566 4,933 6,430 7,816 9,435 10,622

Total liabilities 124,108 160,534 247,045 324,757 344,975 344,444

Minority interest 957 1,801 3,013 9,892 9,892 9,892

Stockholders' equity

Common stock 18,939 18,959 18,979 18,981 18,981 18,981

Additional paid in capital 56,363 56,645 77,745 73,442 73,442 73,442

Deferred stock based compensation (419) - 12 45 45 45

Treasury stock (216) (134) (119) (110) (110) (110)

Retained earnings / (deficit) 17,511 60,083 125,964207,152 296,651 378,842

Total stockholders' equity 92,178 135,553 222,585 299,510 389,009 471,200

Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 217,243 297,888 472,643 634,159 743,876 825,536

Ratios

Net debt/equity 0.4 0.3 0.19 0.19 0.13 0.0

Gross Debt/Equity 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.37 0.3 0.2

WC/Revenues (%) -42% -37% -17% -24% -20% -17%

Net working capital days (153.1) (136.5) (63.7) (86.1) (72.8) (63.3)



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6 March 2009 9

Fig 7 Bharti Airtel annual cashflow statement, fiscal year-end March


Cashflow from operating activities

Net (loss) / profit 22,567 42,572 67,008 81,189 111,167 125,527

Depreciation and amortization 15,610 24,973 36,922 45,592 51,917 59,666

Deferred tax expense 767 491 (36) (3,351) (170) (124)Share of (profits) / losses in joint venture 5 2 1 - - -

(Gain) / loss on sale of property and equipment (25) (15) 65

Interest income earned (15) - -

Deferred stock based compensation 159 235 339 - - -

Fair value loss / (gain) on trading securities (98) (327) (587)

Finance costs charged 79 12 1

Unrealized foreign exchange gain 1,320 (1,632) 1,227

Provision for impairment of receivables and advances 2,073 4,010 3,240

Debt origination costs amortised 13 519 274

Fair value loss / (gain) on derivatives and other

financial expenses

(124) 248 (904) - - -

Minority interest 260 467 1,151 - -

Indefeasible right to use sales (418) (436) (436) - - -

Current tax impact on ESOP exercised 2 0 -Proceeds from Indefeasible right to use sales 649 101 101

Changes in Working Capital: 6,085 (509) (5,072) 50,827 13,354 11,682

Accounts receivable (5,316) (5,351) (6,938) (4,814) (5,002) (3,246)

Inventories 164 (531) (230) 46 (1,361) (309)

Unbilled receivables and other current assets (5,852) (6,627) (16,965) (9,005) 6,514 (4,791)

Trade payables 6,512 2,096 1,826 38,799 15,946 12,886

Accrued expenses 2,339 4,210 5,818 7,442 2,761 2,848

Unearned income and other current l iabilit ies 8,237 5,693 11,418 18,360 (5,503) 4,293

Other non-current liabilities 571 952 557 1,386 1,619 1,187

Non-current assets (641) (1,040) (1,748) (3,454) (1,760) (1,290)

Due to / from related parties, net (518) (75) 382 (9,428) (2,027) (1,487)

Net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities 48,320 70,549 102,484 162,761 174,101 195,160

Cashflows from investing activities

Purchase of property and equipment (57,309) (74,294) (126,258) (184,807) (143,680) (108,578)

Proceeds from sale of property and equipment 1,092 1,097 12,270 8,299 (0) 0

Proceeds of short term investments - - - - - -

Proceeds from sale of marketable securities - - - - - -

Acquisition of intangible assets (288) (504) (2,195) - - -

Non-current investments 11 (0) 500 (4,703) - -

Restricted cash (7) 58 45 5 - -

Investment in joint ventures (35) 5 (59) (4) - -

Short term investments 2,564 850 (45,440) 3,313 (9,277) (6,799)

Licence entry fees - (456) -

Cash paid for acquisition of subsidiaries, net (122) 14,873 -

Net cash used in investing activities (54,095) (72,788) (146,720) (177,897) (152,957) (115,377)

Cashflows from financing activities

Net movement in cash credit and bank overdraft 1,629 (861) 2,227 -

Proceeds from issuance of short-term borrowings 4,451 1,954 2,229 3,110 883 (4,493)

Repayment of short-term borrowings (43) (4,486) (1,954) -

Proceeds from issuance of long-term borrowings 18,334 34,237 50,662 12,117 3,531 (17,970)

Repayment of long-term borrowings (18,841) (24,129) (9,673) -

Proceeds from exercise of stock options 60 110 199 -

Additional paid in capital - 375 - (4,264) - -

Due to related parties,/ changes in minority interest 3 1 12 6,879

Dividend (including dividend tax) - - - - (21,668) (43,336)

Cash paid for debt issue costs (255) (148) (152) - - -

Net cash provided by/(used in) financing activities 5,337 7,053 43,550 17,842 (17,255) (65,799)

Net (decrease) / increase in cash during the year (438) 4,814 (686) 2,706 3,889 13,985

Add : Balance as at the beginning of the year 3,087 2,649 7,464 6,777 9,483 13,372

Balance as at the end of the year 2,649 7,464 6,777 9,483 13,372 27,356



10/17


6 March 2009 10

Fig 8 Key quarterly operating & financial metrics Wireless business: Bharti and RCOM

Bharti Airtel - Actuals for 3QFY09March Year ends; Rs million 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09A

Wireless Revenues (Rs m) 42,431 46,976 50,579 56,105 64,201 69,150 72,843 79,392

YoY growth (%) 75.8 65.3 53.2 49.3 51.3 47.2 44.0 41.5

QoQ growth (%) 12.9 10.7 7.7 10.9 14.4 7.7 5.3 9.0 Subscribers (m) 37.14 42.70 48.88 55.16 61.98 69.38 77.48 85.65

YoY growth (%) 89.7 85.1 80.6 72.5 66.9 62.5 58.5 55.3

QoQ growth (%) 16.2 15.0 14.5 12.9 12.4 11.9 11.7 10.5

Gross ARPU (Rs) 406 390 366 358 357 350 331 324YoY growth (%) -8.1 -11.5 -16.5 -16.2 -12.1 -10.4 -9.5 -9.3

QoQ growth (%) -4.8 -3.9 -6.3 -2.2 -0.2 -2.1 -5.3 -2.0 Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 475 478 469 474 507 534 526 505

YoY growth (%) 10.1 8.3 3.9 1.4 6.8 11.8 12.2 6.7

QoQ growth (%) 1.6 0.7 -1.9 1.1 7.0 5.4 -1.6 -3.9 ARPM (Rs) 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.76 0.70 0.65 0.63 0.64

YoY growth (%) -16.6 -18.3 -19.6 -17.3 -17.7 -19.9 -19.4 -14.9

QoQ growth (%) -6.3 -4.5 -4.4 -3.3 -6.7 -7.1 -3.8 2.1

Total minutes carried (m) 49,240 57,125 64,375 73,840 89,058 105,217 115,834 123,626YoY growth (%) 112.4 102.6 90.2 78.8 80.9 84.2 79.9 67.4

QoQ growth (%) 19.2 16.0 12.7 14.7 20.6 18.1 10.1 6.7 Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.26 0.20 0.19 0.20

YoY growth (%) -10.4 -9.0 -10.3 -9.3 -24.2 -39.6 -41.0 -34.8

QoQ growth (%) -1.2 -1.1 -3.5 -3.8 -17.4 -21.2 -5.7 6.3 Wireless EBITDA (Rs m) 16,604 19,087 20,728 22,887 22,779 21,218 22,009 24,963

YoY growth (%) 89.8 84.6 70.2 62.0 37.2 11.2 6.2 9.1QoQ growth (%) 17.5 15.0 8.6 10.4 -0.5 -6.9 3.7 13.4

EBITDA margin (%) 39.1 40.6 41.0 40.8 35.5 30.7 30.2 31.4YoY expansion (basis points) 289.2 423.4 410.0 319.5 -365.1 -994.7 -1,076.7 -935.0

QoQ expansion (basis points) 153.4 150.0 35.0 -18.8 -531.2 -479.7 -47.0 122.8 Blended Churn 3.6% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 4.3% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9%VAS as % of total revenue 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.3% 9.4% 9.7% 10.0% 9.5%

YoY growth (%) -5.6 -8.3 -4.9 -10.6 -6.9 -2.0 2.0 2.2

QoQ growth (%) -2.9 -2.0 -1.0 -5.1 1.1 3.2 3.1 -5.0 Total Cell Sites 39,224 45,784 52,826 60,299 69,141 75,876 82,554 88,319

YoY growth (%) 87.0 81.9 75.9 75.8 76.3 65.7 56.3 46.5

QoQ growth (%) 14.3 16.7 15.4 14.1 14.7 9.7 8.8 7.0 Wireless Capex (Rs m) 10,706 32,806 28,661 27,538 17,995 32,227 23,396 29,012

YoY growth (%) -39.4 81.7 4.4 76.6 68.1 -1.8 -18.4 5.4

QoQ growth (%) -31.4 206.4 -12.6 -3.9 -34.7 79.1 -27.4 24.0 To tal Popu lation Centres co vered 212,003 248,439 294,876 325,525 347,646 369,335 389,571 406,939

YoY growth (%) 151.2 135.2 85.0 79.7 64.0 48.7 32.1 25.0

QoQ growth (%) 17.0 17.2 18.7 10.4 6.8 6.2 5.5 4.5 Total employees 20,314 22,955 23,264 24,703 25,543 26,144 25,616 25,553

YoY growth (%) na na na 35.6 25.7 13.9 10.1 3.4 QoQ growth (%) 11.5 13.0 1.3 6.2 3.4 2.4 -2.0 -0.2

Reliance Communications - Actuals for 3QFY09

March Year ends; Rs million 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09A


YoY growth (%) 40.0 38.7 44.6 43.8 40.1 22.1 16.5 11.5

QoQ growth (%) 7.9 13.6 10.4 6.3 5.2 -1.0 5.3 1.8 Subscribers (m) 28.01 31.87 36.32 40.96 45.79 50.79 56.05 61.35

YoY growth (%) 38.6 41.5 39.8 36.6 63.5 59.4 54.3 49.8

QoQ growth (%) -6.6 13.8 14.0 12.8 11.8 10.9 10.4 9.5 Gross ARPU (Rs) 377 375 361 339 317 282 271 251

YoY growth (%) -0.5 -1.1 2.0 3.4 -15.9 -24.8 -24.9 -26.0

QoQ growth (%) 14.9 -0.5 -3.7 -6.1 -6.5 -11.0 -3.9 -7.4 Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 541 510 490 449 430 425 423 410

YoY growth (%) 1.7 3.9 6.3 -1.1 -20.5 -16.7 -13.7 -8.7

QoQ growth (%) 19.2 -5.7 -3.9 -8.4 -4.2 -1.2 -0.4 -3.1ARPM (Rs) 0.70 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.66 0.64 0.61

YoY growth (%) -2.2 -4.7 -4.1 4.5 5.8 -9.7 -13.0 -18.9 QoQ growth (%) -3.5 5.5 0.2 2.5 -2.4 -9.9 -3.5 -4.4 Total minutes carried (m) 47,057 45,805 50,122 52,054 55,959 61,527 67,786 72,195

YoY growth (%) na na na na na na na na

QoQ growth (%) na na na na na na na na Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.23

YoY growth (%) 6.3 5.2 -4.9 12.5 10.7 -7.4 -5.6 -24.3

QoQ growth (%) 0.2 8.0 -9.9 15.3 -1.4 -9.7 -8.1 -7.5 Wireless EBITDA (Rs m) 11,511 13,392 14,873 15,819 16,763 16,623 16,859 16,616

YoY growth (%) 52.0 53.1 60.0 53.7 45.6 24.1 13.4 5.0

QoQ growth (%) 11.8 16.3 11.1 6.4 6.0 -0.8 1.4 -1.4 EBITDA margin (%) 38.8 39.7 39.9 40.0 40.3 40.4 38.9 37.7

YoY expansion (basis points) 306.6 374.1 384.6 257.1 152.0 65.6 -106.4 -231.9

QoQ expansion (basis points) 135.9 93.6 24.5 3.1 30.8 7.2 -147.5 -122.3 Blended Churn nmf nmf 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0%VAS as % of total revenue 6.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.9% 7.6% 7.3% 7.4%

YoY growth (%) 3.3 -8.1 -1.6 1.6 9.5 33.3 17.7 15.6

QoQ growth (%) 0.0 -9.5 8.8 3.2 7.8 10.1 -3.9 1.4

Total Cell Sites na na na na na na na na

YoY growth (%) na na na na na na na na

QoQ growth (%) na na na na na na na na Wireless Capex (Rs m) 9,860 14,973 49,685 60,605 46,442 56,926 33,260 32,508

YoY growth (%) na 110.2 231.6 401.3 371.0 280.2 -33.1 -46.4

QoQ growth (%) -18.4 51.9 231.8 22.0 -23.4 22.6 -41.6 -2.3

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2009


11/17


6 March 2009 11

Fig 9 Key quarterly operating & financial metrics Wireless business: Vodafone Essar, Idea and MTNLVodafone Essar - Actuals for 3QFY09


Wireless revenues (in Rsm) na na 34,891 36,300 41,887 46,474 47,498 51,481

YoY growth (%) na na na na na na 36.1 41.8

QoQ growth (%) na na na 4.0 15.4 11.0 2.2 8.4

Wireless revenues (in GBPm) na na 440 491 559 565 574 674

YoY growth (%) na na na na na na 30.5 37.3 QoQ growth (%) na na na 11.6 13.8 1.1 1.6 17.4

Subscribers (m) 26.44 30.75 33.68 35.66 44.13 49.20 54.63 60.93

YoY growth (%) 72.1 75.3 65.5 53.0 66.9 60.0 62.2 70.9

QoQ growth (%) 13.5 16.3 9.5 5.9 23.7 11.5 11.0 11.5

Gross ARPU (Rs) 405 na 361 349 350 332 305 297

YoY growth (%) -10.7 na -14.0 -15.7 -13.6 na -15.5 -14.9

QoQ growth (%) -2.1 na na -3.3 0.3 -5.1 -8.1 -2.6

Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 432 415 373 384 391 374 364 355

YoY growth (%) 14.3 5.9 -8.2 -10.5 -9.6 na -2.2 -7.4

QoQ growth (%) 0.7 -3.9 -10.3 3.0 1.8 -4.2 -2.6 -2.5

ARPM (Rs) 0.94 na 0.97 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.84 0.84

YoY growth (%) -21.9 na -6.3 -5.8 -4.4 na -13.6 -8.1

QoQ growth (%) -2.8 na na -6.1 -1.5 -0.9 -5.7 -0.2

Total minutes carried (m) 32,242 35,626 36,011 39,913 46,734 52,349 56,745 61,606

YoY growth (%) na na na na na na 57.6 54.4

QoQ growth (%) na na na 10.8 17.1 12.0 8.4 8.6

Blended Churn na na na na na na na naTotal Cell Sites na na na 41,000 48,000 52,000 59,000 69,000

YoY growth (%) na na na na na na na 68.3 QoQ growth (%) na na na na 17.1 8.3 13.5 16.9

Idea Cellular - Actuals for 3QFY09



YoY growth (%) na 65.2 56.1 49.0 51.1 47.1 47.2 59.7

QoQ growth (%) 13.9 13.1 5.7 9.3 15.5 10.2 5.8 18.7

Subscribers (m) 14.01 16.13 18.67 21.05 24.00 27.19 30.38 34.21

YoY growth (%) na 88.9 80.2 69.2 71.3 68.6 62.7 42.5

QoQ growth (%) 12.6 15.1 15.8 12.8 14.0 13.3 11.7 12.6

Gross ARPU (Rs) 317 320 288 279 287 278 261 266

YoY growth (%) na -15.2 -14.0 -13.4 -9.5 -13.1 -9.4 -4.7

QoQ growth (%) -1.6 0.9 -10.0 -3.1 2.9 -3.1 -6.1 1.9

Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 387 381 360 377 411 428 417 410

YoY growth (%) na 7.0 4.7 2.2 6.2 12.3 15.8 8.8

QoQ growth (%) 4.9 -1.6 -5.5 4.7 9.0 4.1 -2.6 -1.7

ARPM (Rs) 0.82 0.84 0.80 0.74 0.70 0.65 0.62 0.65

YoY growth (%) na -20.8 -17.9 -15.2 -14.8 -22.7 -22.5 -12.3

QoQ growth (%) -6.1 2.5 -4.8 -7.5 -5.6 -7.0 -4.5 4.6

Total minutes carried (m) 15,469 17,100 18,831 22,457 27,824 33,087 36,315 40,254

YoY growth (%) na 111.2 93.4 77.8 79.9 93.5 92.8 79.2

QoQ growth (%) 22.5 10.5 10.1 19.3 23.9 18.9 9.8 10.8

Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.27 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.17 na

YoY growth (%) na -16.1 -21.1 -14.0 -12.7 -26.4 -38.5 na

QoQ growth (%) -7.3 9.6 -8.9 -7.1 -5.8 -7.6 -23.8 na

Wireless EBITDA (Rs m) 4,363 5,128 5,107 5,672 6,606 7,219 6,024 6,950

YoY growth (%) na 69.8 43.9 53.1 51.4 40.8 18.0 22.5

QoQ growth (%) 17.7 17.5 -0.4 11.1 16.5 9.3 -16.6 15.4

EBITDA margin (%) 33.4 34.7 32.7 33.2 33.5 33.2 26.2 25.5

YoY expansion (basis points) na 93.7 -275.2 88.1 7.9 -149.6 -649.1 -773.7

QoQ expansion (basis points) 108.8 129.6 -201.9 51.6 28.6 -27.8 -701.5 -73.0

Blended Churn 4.2% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6% 4.0% 3.9% 4.3%VAS as % of total revenue 9.0% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 8.2% 8.9% 9.8% 9.5%

YoY growth (%) na -8.7 -13.5 -13.0 -8.9 6.0 18.1 18.8

QoQ growth (%) -2.2 -6.7 -1.2 -3.6 2.5 8.5 10.1 -3.1

Total Cell Sites na 13,160 17,105 21,197 24,793 27,594 33,377 39,286

YoY growth (%) na na na na na 109.7 95.1 85.3 QoQ growth (%) na na 30.0 23.9 17.0 11.3 21.0 17.7

Total capex (Rs m) na 11,062 12,352 11,946 19,161 19,817 11,950 13,525

YoY growth (%) na na na na na 79.1 -3.3 13.2

QoQ growth (%) na na 11.7 -3.3 60.4 3.4 -39.7 13.2

Total Population Centres covered 4,432 6,066 8,413 11,104 13,308 na na na

YoY growth (%) na 167.1 177.6 207.8 200.3 na na na

QoQ growth (%) 22.9 36.9 38.7 32.0 19.8 na na na

Total employees 5,532 5,638 5,865 5,923 6,107 6,380 6,521 6,670

YoY growth (%) na 27.5 27.6 27.5 10.4 13.2 11.2 12.6

QoQ growth (%) 19.0 1.9 4.0 1.0 3.1 4.5 2.2 2.3

MTNL- Actuals for 3QFY09



YoY growth (%) 15.1 11.1 26.4 6.3 22.0 2.5 -7.6 -2.6

QoQ growth (%) -9.9 13.5 12.6 -7.7 3.4 -4.6 1.5 -2.7

Subscribers (m) 2.94 2.81 2.99 3.21 3.53 3.72 3.96 4.18

YoY growth (%) 43.7 25.0 26.3 26.5 20.1 32.2 32.2 30.2 QoQ growth (%) 15.9 -4.4 6.5 7.2 10.0 5.3 6.4 5.6

Blended ARPU GSM (Rs) 228 253 284 242 237 213 207 188

YoY growth (%) -24.2 -12.5 4.2 -12.6 3.7 -15.7 -27.2 -22.2

QoQ growth (%) -17.7 10.7 12.6 -14.8 -2.3 -10.0 -2.8 -9.0



12/17


6 March 2009 12

Fig 10 Key annual operating & financial metrics Wireless business: Bharti and RCOM

Bharti Airtel

March Year ends; Rs million FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E

Wireless Revenues (Rs m) 82,392 141,443 217,861 298,142 356,772 397,021

YoY growth (%) 52.5 71.7 54.0 36.8 19.7 11.3 Subscribers (m) 19.58 37.14 61.98 93.08 119.48 137.48

YoY growth (%) 78.2 89.7 66.9 50.2 28.4 15.1

Gross ARPU (Rs) 474 427 370 321 280 258

YoY growth (%) -7.7 -9.9 -13.3 -13.3 -12.8 -7.9

Avg. monthly MoUs per subscriber 407 461 483 532 529 532

YoY growth (%) -37.5 13.3 4.9 10.1 -0.5 0.6

ARPM (Rs) 1.17 0.93 0.77 0.60 0.53 0.48

YoY growth (%) -22.1 -20.5 -17.3 -21.2 -12.4 -8.5

Total minutes carried (m) 70,456 152,583 284,399 494,449 591,197 657,892

YoY growth (%) na 116.6 86.4 73.9 19.6 11.3

Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.40 0.34 0.30 0.18 0.17 0.16

YoY growth (%) -2.7 -14.8 -12.4 -37.9 -10.2 -5.0

Wireless EBITDA (Rs m) 29,712 53,253 85,481 91,373 111,950 129,261

YoY growth (%) 60.4 79.2 60.5 6.9 22.5 15.5

EBITDA margin (%) 36.1 37.6 39.2 30.6 31.4 32.6

YoY expansion (basis points) 177.7 158.8 158.7 -858.9 73.1 117.9

VAS as % of total revenue 10.4% 10.4% 9.6% 10.3% 11.4% 12.3%

YoY growth (%) 29.8 -0.1 -7.6 7.6 11.0 7.8

Wireless Capex (Rs m) 41,594 71,801 99,136 140,164 110,269 81,959

YoY growth (%) 39.4 72.6 38.1 41.4 -21.3 -25.7

Total Population Centres covered - 4,432 13,308 na na na

YoY growth (%) na na 200.3 na na na

Total employees na 5,532 6,107 na na na

YoY growth (%) na na 10.4 na na na

Reliance Communications



YoY growth (%) na 45.7 41.8 14.9 21.0 13.4

Subscribers (m) 20.21 28.01 45.79 73.66 96.23 116.96

YoY growth (%) na 38.6 63.5 60.8 30.6 21.5

Gross ARPU (Rs) 401 358 345 255 208 188

YoY growth (%) na -10.7 -3.6 -26.1 -18.6 -9.7


YoY growth (%) na -9.6 -4.3 -11.5 -6.6 -1.8

ARPM (Rs) 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.62 0.54 0.50

YoY growth (%) na -1.3 0.7 -16.5 -12.9 -8.0


YoY growth (%) na 35.7 35.8 38.3 39.2 23.2

Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.23 0.27 0.29 0.24 0.20 0.19YoY growth (%) na 21.3 6.3 -18.9 -14.0 -5.4


YoY growth (%) na 77.2 52.7 9.7 19.3 16.6

EBITDA margin (%) 30.5 37.1 40.0 38.2 37.7 38.7

YoY expansion (basis points) na 660.4 285.2 -180.2 -53.9 105.8


YoY growth (%) na 6.5 0.9 15.5 27.1 22.3

Wireless Capex (Rs m) na 44,055 171,705 201,402 102,106 89,493

YoY growth (%) na na 289.8 17.3 -49.3 -12.4



13/17


6 March 2009 13

Fig 11 Key annual operating & financial metrics Wireless business: Idea and MTNL

Idea Cellular



YoY growth (%) 31.3 47.5 54.5 39.5 18.6 13.7 Subscribers (m) 7.37 14.01 24.00 36.84 49.38 57.10

YoY growth (%) 45.3 90.2 71.3 53.5 34.0 15.6

Gross ARPU (Rs) 391 339 295 257 215 198

YoY growth (%) -5.6 -13.3 -13.1 -12.9 -16.3 -8.0


YoY growth (%) 16.5 22.1 11.9 8.0 -1.1 -1.3

ARPM (Rs) 1.35 0.96 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.48

YoY growth (%) -19.0 -29.0 -22.4 -19.4 -15.3 -6.7


YoY growth (%) 61.3 119.5 87.7 80.2 40.4 21.9

Avg. EBITDA per minute (Rs) 0.49 0.29 0.25 0.17 0.15 0.14

YoY growth (%) -21.7 -41.1 -13.5 -32.0 -13.5 -5.0


YoY growth (%) 30.0 37.3 53.7 18.0 20.9 21.0

EBITDA margin (%) 36.0 33.6 33.5 28.3 28.9 30.7

YoY expansion (basis points) -40.2 -243.6 -5.0 -515.8 52.7 184.9


YoY growth (%) 0.0 20.0 -8.7 13.3 9.3 10.7

Total Capex (Rs m) 5,293 22,819 55,726 80,465 73,604 50,694

YoY growth (%) -2.9 331.1 144.2 44.4 -8.5 -31.1

Total Population Centres covered 1,944 4,432 13,308 na na na

YoY growth (%) 76.9 128.0 200.3 na na na

Total employees 3,720 5,532 6,107 na na na

YoY growth (%) na 48.7 10.4 na na na

MTNL



YoY growth (%) 95.2 30.7 17.3 -2.1 -6.0 -8.3

Subscribers (m) 2.05 3.05 3.70 4.55 4.79 4.91

YoY growth (%) 89.8 49.2 21.1 23.1 5.3 2.5

Gross ARPU (Rs) 331 261 239 191 156 137

YoY growth (%) -14.1 -21.3 -8.2 -20.3 -18.4 -12.0

Total employees 51,212 48,529 47,422 na na na

YoY growth (%) -6.0 -5.2 -2.3 na na na



14/17


6 March 2009 14

Bharti Airtel Limited (BHARTI IN, Outperform, Target price: Rs975.00)Balance Sheet 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Profit & Loss 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E

Cash m 54,863 54,256 67,422 88,205 Revenue m 270,250 371,495 448,469 504,882Receivables m 28,062 34,383 38,089 42,880 Gross Profit m 153,810 203,751 250,422 291,743Inventories m 1,142 1,096 2,457 2,766 Cost of Goods Sold m 116,440 167,744 198,048 213,139Investments m 0 0 0 0 EBITDA m 113,718 153,326 189,967 221,625Fixed Assets m 313,407 444,048 535,812 584,724 Depreciation m 37,261 45,592 51,917 59,666Intangibles m 27,043 27,043 27,043 27,043 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0

Other Assets m 48,126 73,333 73,053 79,918 Other Amortisation m 0 0 0 0Total Assets m 472,643 634,159 743,876 825,537 EBIT m 76,457 107,734 138,050 161,958Payables m 79,818 118,617 134,563 147,449 Net Interest Income m -2,341 -16,404 -2,340 -2,697Short Term Debt m 19,348 22,458 23,341 18,848 Associates m -1 -392 0 0Long Term Debt m 77,715 89,832 93,362 75,392 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0Provisions m 0 0 0 0 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0Other Liabili ties m 70,164 93,851 93,709 102,755 Other Pre-Tax Income m 2,423 967 1,665 1,831Total Liabilities m 247,045 324,757 344,975 344,444 Pre-Tax Profit m 76,538 91,905 137,375 161,092Shareholders' Funds m 222,581 299,510 389,009 471,200 Tax Expense m -8,379 -8,806 -23,354 -32,218Minority Interests m 3,013 9,892 9,892 9,892 Net Profit m 68,159 83,099 114,021 128,874Other m 0 0 0 0 Minority Interests m -1,150 -1,909 -2,854 -3,347Total S/H Equity m 225,594 309,402 398,901 481,092Total Liab & S/H Funds m 472,639 634,159 743,876 825,536 Reported Earnings m 67,009 81,189 111,167 125,527

Adjusted Earnings m 67,009 81,189 111,167 125,527

EPS ( rep) 35.31 42.79 58.60 66.17EPS (adj) 35.31 42.79 58.60 66.17EPS Growth (adj) % 57.2 21.2 36.9 12.9

Total DPS 0.00 0.00 10.00 10.00Total Div Yield % 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6Weighted Average Shares m 1,898 1,897 1,897 1,897Period End Shares m 1,895 1,896 1,896 1,896

Profit and Loss Ratios 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E Cashflow Analysis 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E

Revenue Growth % 45.9 37.5 20.7 12.6 EBITDA m 104,369 123,431 162,914 185,069EBITDA Growth % 52.6 34.8 23.9 16.7 Tax Paid m 0 0 0 0EBIT Growth % 55.1 40.9 28.1 17.3 Chgs in Working Cap m 17,448 50,827 13,354 11,682Gross Profit Margin % 56.9 54.8 55.8 57.8 Net Interest Paid m 0 0 0 0EBITDA Margin % 42.1 41.3 42.4 43.9 Other m 695 -11,497 -2,168 -1,590EBIT Margin % 28.3 29.0 30.8 32.1 Operating Cashflow m 122,512 162,761 174,101 195,160Net Profit Margin % 25.2 22.4 25.4 25.5 Acquisitions m -46,568 -1,394 -9,277 -6,799Payout Ratio % 0.0 0.0 17.1 15.1 Capex m -138,468 -184,807 -143,680 -108,578EV/EBITDA x 10.8 8.0 6.4 5.5 Asset Sales m -4,044 8,299 -0 0EV/EBIT x 16.0 11.4 8.9 7.6 Other m 44 5 0 0

Investing Cashflow m -189,036 -177,897 -152,957 -115,377

Balance Sheet Ratios Dividend (Ordinary) m 0 0 -21,668 -43,336ROE % 37.4 31.1 32.3 29.2 Equity Raised m 20,019 -4,264 0 0ROA % 19.8 19.5 20.0 20.6 Debt Movements m 44,602 15,227 4,413 -22,463ROIC % 37.8 36.4 31.2 28.9 Other m 1,212 6,879 0 0Net Debt/Equity % 18.7 18.8 12.4 1.3 Financing Cashflow m 65,833 17,842 -17,255 -65,799Interest Cover x 32.7 6.6 59.0 60.0 Price/Book x 5.3 3.9 3.0 2.5 Net Chg in Cash/Debt m -691 2,706 3,889 13,985Book Value per Share 117.5 158.0 205.2 248.5

Note: All figures in INR unless noted.

Source: Macquarie Research, January 2009


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6 March 2009 15

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New ZealandOutperform return >5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie Asia/Europe

Outperform expected return >+10%Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return +10%Neutral expected return from -10% to +10%Underperform expected return 5% in excess of benchmark returnNeutral return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USAOutperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of benchmarkreturnNeutral (Hold) return within 5% of benchmark returnUnderperform (Sell) return >5% below benchmarkreturn

Recommendations 12 monthsNote: Quant recommendations may differ fromFundamental Analyst recommendations

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historicalprice movements.

Very highhighest risk Stock should beexpected to move up or down 60100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highlyspeculative.

High stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 4060% in a year investors shouldbe aware this stock could be speculative.

Medium stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 3040% in a year.

Lowmedium stock should be expected to moveup or down at least 2530% in a year.

Low stock should be expected to move up ordown at least 1525% in a year.* Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the followingadjustments made:Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision forcatastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expenseExcluded: non recurring items, asset revals, propertyrevals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &minority interests

EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assetsROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /averagetotal assetsROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders fundsGross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted averagenumber of shares

All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocksare modelled under IFRS (International FinancialReporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2008

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUROutperform 38.55% 50.61% 64.52% 53.13% 65.55% 43.00%Neutral 41.82% 15.92% 25.81% 40.63% 27.73% 48.00%Underperform 19.64% 33.47% 9.68% 6.25% 6.72% 9.00%

Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities orissuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations orviews in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues ofMacquarie Group Ltd ABN 94 122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062 )(MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to

achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.Disclaimers: Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital MarketsNorth America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; MacquarieSecurities (NZ) Ltd; and Macquarie First South Securities (Pty) Limited are not authorised deposit-taking institutions for the purposes of the Banking Act1959 (Commonwealth of Australia), and their obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542(MBL) or MGL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of any of the above mentioned entities. MGLprovides a guarantee to the Monetary Authority of Singapore in respect of the obligations and l iabilities of Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) PteLtd for up to SGD 35 million. This research has been prepared for the general use of the wholesale clients of the Macquarie Group and must not becopied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information inthis research in any way. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrainfrom engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particularneeds of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance ofan adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risksinvolved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. Internationalinvestors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market oreconomic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed tobe reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or updatethe information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liabilitywhatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to thisresearch.Other Disclaimers: In Canada, securities research is prepared, approved and distributed by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd, a participatingorganisation of the Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange & Montral Exchange. Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd., which is aregistered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the contents of reports issued by Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd inthe United States and to US persons and any person wishing to effect transactions in the securities described in the reports issued by MacquarieCapital Markets Canada Ltd should do so with Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd. Securities research is issued and distributed byMacquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd (AFSL No. 238947) in Australia, a participating organisation of the Australian Securities Exchange; MacquarieSecurities (NZ) Ltd in New Zealand, a licensed sharebroker and New Zealand Exchange Firm; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd in the United Kingdom,which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (No. 193905); Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd in Hong Kong, which is licensedand regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission; Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited in Japan, a member of the Tokyo StockExchange, Inc., Osaka Securities Exchange Co. Ltd, and Jasdaq Securities Exchange, Inc. (Financial Instruments Firm, Kanto Financial Bureau(kin-sho) No. 231, a member of Japan securities Dealers Association and Financial Futures Association of Japan); Macquarie First South Securities (Pty)Limited in South Africa, a member of the JSE Limited and in Singapore, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (Company RegistrationNumber: 198702912C), a Capital Markets Services licence holder under the Securities and Futures Act to deal in securities and provide custodial

services in Singapore. Pursuant to the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005, Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd is exemptfrom complying with sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act. Clients should contact analysts at, and execute transactions through, aMacquarie Group entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc., which is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA, accepts responsibility for the content of each research report prepared by one of its non-US affiliates when the researchreport is distributed in the United States by Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. affiliate research reports and affiliate employeesare not subject to the disclosure requirements of FINRA rules. Any persons receiving this report directly from Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. and wishingto effect a transaction in any security described herein should do so with Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. The information contained in this document is c


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17/17

Asia ResearchHead of Equity Research

Stephen OSullivan (852) 3922 3566

Automobiles/Auto Parts

Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7343Clive Wiggins (Japan) (813) 3512 7856Dan Lucas (Japan) (813) 3512 6050

Eunsook Kwak (Korea) (822) 3705 8644Linda Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7521

Banks and Non-Bank Financials

Ismael Pili (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 5979

Nick Lord (Asia, China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4774Sarah Wu (China) (8621) 2412 9035Seshadri Sen (India) (9122) 6653 3053Ferry Wong (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7335Chin Seng Tay (Malaysia, Spore) (65) 6231 2837Nadine Javellana (Philippines) (632) 857 0890Matthew Smith (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514Alastair Macdonald (Thailand) (662) 694 7741

Chemicals/TextilesJal Irani (India) (9122) 6653 3040Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993

Conglomerates

Gary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557Leah Jiang (China) (8621) 2412 9020

Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7343Ashwin Sanketh (Singapore) (65) 6231 2830

Consumer

Mohan Singh (Asia) (852) 3922 1111

Jessie Qian (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3568Unmesh Sharma (India) (9122) 6653 3042Toby Williams (Japan) (813) 3512 7392Heather Kang (Korea) (822) 3705 8677HongSuk Na (Korea) (822) 3705 8678Edward Ong (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982

Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Linda Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7521

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (Asia) (8621) 2412 9007Minoru Tayama (Japan) (813) 3512 6058Robert Burghart (Japan) (813) 3512 7853Heather Kang (Korea) (822) 3705 8677

Industrials

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6653 3166

Christopher Cintavey (Japan) (813) 3512 7432Janet Lewis (Japan) (813) 3512 7475Michael Na (Korea) (822) 2095 7222Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Insurance

Mark Kellock (Asia) (852) 3922 3567Seshadri Sen (Asia, India) (9122) 6653 3053

Makarim Salman (Japan) (813) 3512 7421

Media

Jessie Qian (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3568Shubham Majumder (India) (9122) 6653 3049Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Oil and Gas

David Johnson (Asia, China) (852) 3922 4691Jal Irani (India) (9122) 6653 3040Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670Edward Ong (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993Ashwin Sanketh (Singapore) (65) 6231 2830

Pharmaceuticals

Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6653 3052Naomi Kumagai (Japan) (813) 3512 7474Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670

Property

Matt Nacard (Asia) (852) 3922 4731Eva Lee (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3573Chris Cheng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581Unmesh Sharma (India) (9122) 6653 3042Chang Han Joo (Japan) (813) 3512 7885Hiroshi Okubo (Japan) (813) 3512 7433Tuck Yin Soong (Singapore) (65) 6231 2838Elaine Cheong (Singapore) (65) 6231 2839Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522Patti Tomaitrichi tr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Resources / Metals and Mining

Andrew Dale (Asia) (852) 3922 3587Xiao Li (China) (852) 3922 4626YeeMan Chin (China) (852) 3922 3562Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6653 3054Adam Worthington (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7338Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886Christina Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8670

Technology

Warren Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 3592Damian Thong (Japan) (813) 3512 7877David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854Yukihiro Goto (Japan) (813) 3512 5984Do Hoon Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8641Michael Bang (Korea) (822) 3705 8659Patrick Yau (Singapore) (65) 6231 2835Chia-Lin Lu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7526Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516James Chiu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7517Nicholas Teo (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7523

Telecoms

Tim Smart (Asia, China) (852) 3922 3565Bin Liu (China) (852) 3922 3634Shubham Majumder (India) (9122) 6653 3049Kenneth Yap (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7343Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875

Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Ramakrishna Maruvada(Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) (65) 6231 2842

Transport & Infrastructure

Gary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557Anderson Chow (Asia, China) (852) 3922 4773Jonathan Windham (Asia, China) (852) 3922 5417Wei Sim (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3598Janet Lewis (Japan) (813) 3512 7475

Eunsook Kwak (Korea) (822) 3705 8644Heather Kang (Korea) (822) 3705 8677Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993

Utilities

Carol Cao (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4075Adam Worthington (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7338Kakutoshi Ohori (Japan) (813) 3512 7296Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Commodities

Jim Lennon (4420) 3037 4271Adam Rowley (4420) 3037 4272

Jonathan Butcher (4420) 3037 4276Max Layton (4420) 3037 4273

Bonnie Liu (8621) 2412 9008Henry Liu (8621) 2412 9005Rakesh Arora (9122) 6653 3054

Data Services

Andrea Clohessy (Asia) (852) 3922 4076

Economics

Bill Belchere (Asia) (852) 3922 4636Rajeev Malik (ASEAN, India) (65) 6231 2841Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935Paul Cavey (China) (852) 3922 3570Richard Jerram (Japan) (813) 3512 7855

Quantitative

Martin Emery (Asia) (852) 3922 3582Viking Kwok (Asia) (852) 3922 4735George Platt (Austral ia) (612) 8232 6539

Raelene de Souza (Australia) (612) 8232 8388Tsumugi Akiba (Japan) (813) 3512 7560

Strategy/Country

Tim Rocks (Asia) (852) 3922 3585Daniel McCormack (Asia) (852) 3922 4073Desh Peramunetilleke (Asia) (852)3922 3564Mahesh Kedia (Asia) (852) 3922 3576Michael Kurtz (China) (8621) 2412 9002

Seshadri Sen (India) (9122) 6653 3053Ferry Wong (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7335Chris Hunt (Japan) (813) 3512 7878Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989Edward Ong (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899Tuck Yin Soong (ASEAN, Singapore) (65) 6231 2838Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516

Alastair Macdonald (Thailand) (662) 694 7741

Find our research atMacquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research

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SalesRegional Heads of Sales

Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502Michelle Paisley (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3516

Ulrike Pollak-Tsutsumi (Frankfurt) (49) 69 7593 8747Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712

Ajay Bhatia (India) (9122) 6653 3200Stuart Smythe (India) (9122) 6653 3200Chris Gray (Indonesia) (6221) 515 7304Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0761Greg Norton-Kidd (New York) (1 212) 231 2527Luke Sullivan (New York) (1 212) 231 2507

Scot Mackie (New York) (1 212) 231 2848Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) (1 415) 835 1235

Regional Heads of Sales contd

Giles Heyring (Singapore, Malaysia) (65) 6231 2888Mark Duncan (Korea, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7510Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601Michael Newman (Tokyo) (813) 3512 7920

Charles Nelson (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4832Rob Fabbro (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4865Nick Ainsworth (Generalist) (852) 3922 2010

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002Mona Lee (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2085Mike Keen (Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905

Sales Trading contd

Brendan Rake (India) (9122) 6653 3204Edward Robinson (London) (44) 20 3037 4902

Robert Risman (New York) (1 212) 231 2555Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582Jon Omori (Tokyo) (813) 3512 7838Alternative Strategies

Convertibles - Roland Sharman (852) 3922 2095Depository Receipts - Robert Ansell (852)3922 2094Derivatives - Wayne Edelist (852) 3922 2134

Futures - Tim Smith (852) 3922 2113Structured Products - Andrew Terlich (852) 3922 2013

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