financing structures for a nuclear power plant...
TRANSCRIPT
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2473-36
Joint ICTP-IAEA School on Nuclear Energy Management
P. Warren
15 July - 3 August, 2013
IAEA, Vienna, Austria
Financing Structures for a Nuclear Power Plant Project
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IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
Financing Structures for a Nuclear
Power Plant Project
ICTP/IAEA Nuclear Energy Management School 2013
Paul Warren
Planning & Economic Studies Section
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Plan of presentation
Presentation outline:
1. Key dimensions of financing structures
2. Risk premia
3. Risk allocation and financing cost
4. Takeaways
2
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Financing structure
3
Owner/
Operator
Commercial
banks
Shareholders Host
government
Electricity
Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor
Export credit
agencies
Multilateral
agencies
Shareholder
agreement Fuel
supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Loan
agreement
Loan
guarantee
Political
risk
insurance
Political
risk
insurance
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How can financing structures differ?
• How can financing structures differ between
projects?
• Structures can differ along five key
dimensions:
1. Debt versus equity
2. Ownership
3. Contracting
4. PPAs
5. Recourse
4
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1. Debt versus equity
5
Owner/
Operator
Commercial
banks
Shareholders Host
government
Electricity
Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor
Export credit
agencies
Multilateral
agencies
Shareholder
agreement Fuel
supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Loan
agreement
Loan
guarantee
Political
risk
insurance
Political
risk
insurance
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2. Ownership: a more traditional model
6
Power
Purchase
Agreement
Private
Shareholders
Utility
Owner/
Operator
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor EPC
contract
Taxpayers
Fuel supply
contract
NSSS
supplier
Equipment
contract
?
Ratepayers
Loan
agreement Bank
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2. Ownership: a more recent model
7
Power
Purchase
Agreement
Utility
Developer Fuel supplier Fuel supply
contract
Ratepayers
Loan
agreement Bank
Host
Government
Shareholder
agreement
Sovereign
Guarantee
EPC
contractor
NSSS
supplier
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3. Contracting
8
Commercial
banks
Shareholders Host
government
Electricity
Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor
Export credit
agencies
Multilateral
agencies
Owner/
Operator
Shareholder
agreement Fuel
supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Loan
agreement
Loan
guarantee
Political
risk
insurance
Political
risk
insurance
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3. Contracting: contract language and risk
“The contractor undertakes to construct a
power plant with a (net) capacity of 900MWe
for the sum of 4 billion USD.
The contractor will pay for replacement
power for each day in excess of 10 in any
year in which unplanned outages exceed 10
days.
The contractor will also pay for replacement
power for every day on which the plant is not
synchronized to the grid after January 1,
2018, except for delays caused by
unreasonable regulatory performance.”
Schedule
delays
Design
performance
not achieved
Regulatory
delay
Design
capacity not
achieved
Construction
cost overrun
9
Owner/Operator
EPC contractor
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4. Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
10
Commercial
banks
Shareholders Host
government
Electricity
Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor
Export credit
agencies
Multilateral
agencies
Owner/
Operator
Shareholder
agreement Fuel
supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Loan
agreement
Loan
guarantee
Political
risk
insurance
Political
risk
insurance
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5. Recourse
11
Commercial
banks
Shareholders Host
government
Electricity
Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor
Export credit
agencies
Multilateral
agencies
Owner/
Operator
Shareholder
agreement Fuel
supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Loan
agreement
Loan
guarantee
Political
risk
insurance
Political
risk
insurance
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Shifting risk away risk premia
12
Commercial
banks
Shareholders Host government
Electricity Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC contractor
Export credit
agencies
Multilateral
agencies
Owner/
Operator
Shareholder
agreement
Fuel supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Loan
agreement
Loan
guarantee
Political risk
insurance
Political risk
insurance
• As you put together your project as an Owner/Operator you can
offload risk – but there’ll be a cost of doing so: a risk premium
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Risk premium example
• Consider the development of a 15-year agreement
between an NPP owner/operator (e.g. a utility) and
a nuclear fuel supplier
• Price of U3O8 (as well as the prices of SWU, zirconium
etc.) is subject to escalation risk
• If the NPP owner were to insist on a price for fuel which
was fixed throughout the contact, fuel supplier would
demand a risk premium
• Risk premium would be reflected in the fuel price
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Risk premium example
• Suppose the U3O8 price for the duration of the
contract was projected to average $100/kg
• Consistent with fuel price of p* per fuel assembly
• If the fuel supplier took the risk it would insist on a price
of p' where p' > p*
• p ' - p* is the risk premium
14
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Intuitions on risk premia
• Premium paid by OO to shift risk to the other side
of a contract (‘counterparty’) will depend on:
1. Size of the risk • Volatility
• Monetary value
2. Counterparty’s financial capacity relative to the
size of the risk • A small party, with limited financial capacity might be willing to
bear a large volatile risk, but….
• …it will demand a large risk premium for doing so
3. Counterparty’s risk appetite
4. Couinterparty’s ability to control the risk
15
NB!
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Contracting net income
16
Owner/
Operator
Electricity
Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor
Fuel
supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Commercial
banks
Shareholders
Shareholder
agreement
Loan
agreement
Net income
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Risk allocation and financing cost
• Potential financers will be concerned about the risk
(“default risk”) that the owner of the project will be
unable to pay dividends, or to repay some part (or
any) of the principal or interest on the loan
• Default risk associated with volatility of net income
• Default risk associated with a project will be a
concern for equity investors and lenders
• This makes it a concern for the project owner as
well: the higher the default risk that financers
perceive in a project, the more they will charge
to finance!
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All risk is financial risk!
18
Owner/
Operator
Electricity
Utility
Fuel supplier
EPC
contractor
Fuel
supply
agreement
EPC
contract
PPA
Commercial
banks
Shareholders
Shareholder
agreement
Loan
agreement
Volatility of net
income =
financial risk
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Interest During Construction (IDC)
19
• Given the size of the capital
investments needed, and
length of time over which
construction can stretch
financing crucial!
• With an interest rate of 10%
p.a. and a seven year
construction period, a total OC
of $5750M gives rise to IDC of
$2780M
• Reducing the interest rate by 1%
reduces IDC by $326M
• Reducing the construction period
by one year – even by adding all
Y7 spending to Y1 – reduces IDC
by $390M
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
$M
Construction period
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Takeaways
1. The way an NPP project is structured financially
is all about allocating risk
2. As you put together your project as you can
offload risk – but there’ll be a cost of doing so: a
risk premium
3. For financing purposes, all risk should be
regarded as financial risk
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Financing TECDOC CMs
• Document is currently being prepared
• Authors (5) are investment banking professionals
• Extensive financing experience in energy and nuclear ‘space’
• Framework, contents and topics set out by IAEA
• Document will constitute a “textbook” (a comprehensive set
supporting material) for future Expert Missions on financing
• Two Consultancy Meetings (CMs) will be held in
Vienna in November
• Purpose is to get feedback from potential users (i.e. Member
States)
• Contact: [email protected]
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Thank you!
…atoms for peace