finding the time lag between solar heating and surface temperature
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Finding the Time Lag Between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature. EAS 4480: Data Analysis Final Project Arielle Nixon 24 April 2012. Introduction. Determine: correlation between incoming solar radiation at the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (KATL) and change in air temperature/SST - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Finding the Time Lag Between Solar Heating and Surface
TemperatureEAS 4480: Data Analysis Final Project
Arielle Nixon24 April 2012
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Introduction
Determine:
•correlation between incoming solar radiation at the Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Airport (KATL) and change in air temperature/SST
•Lag time between each of these correlated data sets
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Gather data: Daily mean air temperature Incoming solar insulation Sea surface temperature
Compute Autocorrelations of each data set Compute correlation coefficients to determine
which components are most closely related Cross correlate IR with Air Temp and SST to find
lag time
Methods
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Climatological Daily Mean Temperatures from KATL for 2011
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Smoothed Climatological Daily Mean Temperatures from KATL for 2011
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Residual Climatological Daily Mean Temperatures from KATL for 2011
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Daily Mean and Smoothed Temperature from KATL for 2011
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Autocorrelation: Climatological Daily Mean Temperature
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Autocorrelation: Smoothed Daily Mean Temperature
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Autocorrelation: Residual of Daily Mean Temperature
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Autocorrelation: Daily Mean Incoming Solar Insulation
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Autocorrelation: Daily Mean Sea Surface Temperature
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Autocorrelation as a Function of Time Lag
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Correlation Coefficients
Correlation Coefficients (r)Climate Smooth Residual IR SST
Climate 1 0.9976 0.2356 0.8867 0.8008Smooth 0.9976 1 0.1671 0.8887 0.8027Residual 0.2356 0.1671 1 0.1508 0.1346IR 0.8867 0.8887 0.1508 1 0.4427SST 0.8008 0.8027 0.1346 0.4427 1
How Much of the variance in X is explained by Y? (r2)Climate Smooth Residual IR SST
Climate 1 0.995206 0.055507 0.786237 0.641281Smooth 0.995206 1 0.027922 0.789788 0.644327Residual 0.055507 0.027922 1 0.022741 0.018117IR 0.786237 0.789788 0.022741 1 0.195983SST 0.641281 0.644327 0.018117 0.195983 1
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Cross-Correlation between Smoothed Daily Temperature & Daily Incoming
Solar InsulationMax correlation of 0.92814 at Lag= 17
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Cross-Correlation between Sea Surface Temperature & Daily Incoming
Solar Insulation
Max correlation of 0.85211 at Lag= 58
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At a time lag of 17 days, the increase/decrease in solar insulation has the most causal effect on the mean air temperature at KATL
At a time lag of 58 days, the increase/decrease in solar insulation have the most causal effect on the sea surface temperature
Results
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Daily Mean Air Temperature data http://
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl Incoming Solar Insulation data
http://aom.giss.nasa.gov/srlocat.html Sea Surface Temperature Data
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html
Resources