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THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET FRANCE RETAIL First Half 2019

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Page 1: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

THE RETAIL PROPERTY

MARKET

FRANCE

R E TA I L

First Half 2019

Page 2: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

PURCHASING POWER

+2.1% in 2019*

Record level since 2007

Source: Banque de France

*Annual increase / Forecast

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE*

101 in June 2019

+14 points since January 2019

Source: INSEE

*Synthetic confidence index

INFLATION*

+1.3% in 2019

+2.1% in 2018

Source: Banque de France

*Including energy and food

SPECIALISED RETAIL SALES*

+0.5% in H1 2019*

+24.6% for online sales

Source: Procos

*Annual increase, in France

LUXURY STORES

40 openings in 2019*

40 on average between 2014 and 2018

Source: Knight Frank

*In Paris, data at end-June 2019

AMOUNTS INVESTED*

€1.3 bn in H1 2019

-21% year on year

Source: Knight Frank

*In France, all asset types

PRIME RENT (Zone A)

€20,000/m²/year in H1 2019*

€20,000/m²/year in H1 2018

Source: Knight Frank

*Champs-Élysées

HOTEL ARRIVALS*

-1.5% in Q1 2019**

+6.3% in comparison with Q1 2017

Source: Paris Tourism Office

*Total number, in Paris / **Annual increase

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETKey figures

2

Page 3: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL

ENVIRONMENT

FIRST HALF OF 2019

Page 4: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

RobustEconomic indicators for FranceAnnual growth in %, unless otherwise noted

Indicator 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f

GDP 1.0 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4

Inflation 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.4

Household consumption 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.5

Household income¹ 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.3 1.5 1.3

Unemployment (France) 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.1

• After peaking in 2017 and slowing in 2018, the French economy will continue to decline in 2019 because of a less favourable global economy. The

low level of exports should be compensated by more robust domestic demand, even though consumer spending has been weak since the

beginning of the year.

• Although the French are currently putting their cash into savings products, they may gradually increase their consumer spending. Purchasing power

has improved significantly, consumer confidence has risen and the yellow vest movement is running out of steam. 4

Back to normalHousehold opinion

Composite index – Data adjusted for seasonal and working-day variations

108

87

101

80

90

100

110

120

130

ma

rs-0

0

févr-

01

janv-0

2

déc-0

2

nov-0

3

oct-

04

sep

t-05

août-

06

juil-

07

juin

-08

ma

i-09

avr-

10

ma

rs-1

1

févr-

12

janv-1

3

déc-1

3

nov-1

4

oct-

15

sep

t-16

août-

17

juil-

18

juin

-19

Source: INSEE

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETEconomic and political environment

¹Household gross disposable income / f: forecast

Source: Banque de France, macroeconomic forecasts

Page 5: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

A decline to put into perspectiveChange in the number of tourist arrivals in Paris hotelsIn millions

5

• The downward trend at the end of 2018 continued into Q1 2019, with Paris hotel arrivals down 1.5%. However, over two years the trend remains

positive, up 6.3% from Q1 2017.

• The uneven results since the beginning of 2019 are due to a decline in the number of foreign visitors. The yellow vest movement has had an impact

on certain nationalities (e.g. the Chinese and Japanese). As the movement gradually slows, visitor numbers could revive in H2 2019.

Few foreign visitors overallHotel arrivals in Paris by nationality in Q1 2019

Change in % from Q1 2018

Source: Paris Tourism Office

3.75

3.81

3.53

1.8

1.73

1.74

1.95

2.08

1.79

Q1 2019

Q1 2018

Q1 2017

Total French Foreign

UNITED KINGDOM

234,630 visitors

+1.5% ▲

Source: Paris Tourism Office

TOTAL

INTERNATIONAL

VISITORS

1,945,852 visitors

-6.3% ▼

UNITED STATES

301,819 visitors

+0.6% ▲

ITALY

134,686 visitors

+4.8% ▲

GERMANY

134,538 visitors

-1.6% ▼

CHINA

80,556 visitors

-9.8% ▼

FRANCE

1,802,411 visitors

+4.1% ▲

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETEconomic and political environment

Page 6: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

RETAILER STRATEGIES

AND FORMATS

FIRST HALF OF 2019

Page 7: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Growth steadyOnline sales revenueIn France

11.6

15.6

20.0

25.0

31.0

37.7

45.0

51.1

57.5

64.9

72.0

81.7

92.6

24.9

33%

34%

28%

25%

24%

22%

19%

14%

12% 14%

15%

14%

13%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(Q1)

Sales (€ bn) Annual growth (%)

Source: Fevad

• After rising 13% in 2018, online sales increased 12% in France in Q1 2019, to €24.9 billion. The French market should be able to hold this pace

over the months to come, crossing the symbolic threshold of €100 million by the end of 2019.

• Online sales still have significant growth potential. Although they account for less than 10% of retail sales in France, in more mature markets

(e.g. US, Netherlands, UK) they are in the 14–17% range.7

Significant potentialShare of online sales in total retail salesInternational examples

Source: Euromonitor

17.0%

14.7

13.7

13.7

11.0

9.5

8.8

6.7

5.2

4.6

United Kingdom

Denmark

Netherlands

United States

Germany

Sweden

France

Austria

Italy

Spain

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

Page 8: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Indexing and

technology

From hidden costs of online sales…

Delivery and reverse

logistics

Social and

environmental pressure

Tax and regulatory

pressure

While free returns have become standard, they weigh

increasingly on the profitability of online retailers. In the

United States, the cost of returns will total $550 billion in

2020* (+75.2% over four years).

Every second lost for web page loading on a

retail website translates to a 7% decline in

sales.

Amazon was widely criticised for its practice of destroying

defective products (or products returned by customers)

even when the products were still functional. A product

repairability index may be mandatory by 2021*.

On 11 July 2019, France officially adopted the GAFA

tax, which taxes corporations on 3% of sales made in

France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising

purposes, connecting of users via platforms).

8*Bill concerning the fight against waste and the circular economy

*Source: Statista*Source: SEMRush, from analysis of 1,300 retail sites

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

Page 9: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

9

…to advantages of a store network

-9.5%The loss of online traffic caused by the

closing of a fashion retail store in a given

market.

Source: ICSC, “How Bricks Impact Clicks”

Emerging brands (i.e. brands less than ten years old) experience a 32%

rise in online traffic for each new physical store opened, compared with

27% for established brands.

Source: ICSC, “How Bricks Impact Clicks”

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

Page 10: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

10

Brand 1st year of business Number of single-brand stores*

Jimmy Fairly 2011 32

Balibaris 2010 24

Le Slip Français 2011 14

Lunettes pour tous 2014 13

Faguo 2009 13

Sézane 2013 7

Sensee 2011 5

Bobbies 2010 4

Polette 2011 3

Miliboo 2007 2

Tediber 2015 1

• The phenomenon is not new, but DNVB popularity continues to rise with the expansion of single-brand store networks. Some brands develop

faster than others (e.g. Jimmy Fairly, Balibaris and Le Slip Français).

• DNVB tend to take their own individual approach to retailing. They are distinguished by more direct relations with consumers, by an emphasis on

the quality of customer service, and by a greater overlap between online retail and physical stores.

DNVB [Digital Native Vertical Brands], a fast-growing model

Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers and department stores,

at end-June 2019

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

Page 11: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

11

Favoured choices for openingsIn France, out of total store openings of DNVB at end-June 2019*

Other**

2%

Type

High streets

90%

Shopping centres

8%

Other

11%

Location

Paris / Greater Paris region

61%

Regional cities

28%

Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers

and department stores / **Factory outlets, airports, train stations etc.

46%

11%

14%

29%

52%

32%

8%

8%

Fashion Eyewear Beauty/Cosmetics Other

DNVB stores by product categoryIn France, for total store openings of DNVB at end-June 2019*

Out of total

number of

DNVB

Out of total store

openings of

DNVB

Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers and department

stores

• DNVB choose to open mainly in high streets. They continue to prefer Paris (Marais, etc.) for their store openings, as well as the most attractive

high streets of dynamic, mid-sized regional cities (Biarritz, Cannes, etc.).

• The number of DNVB stores remains low. The stores serve mainly as a supplement to online activity and to raise the brand’s profile.

Nevertheless, the DNVB physical network is growing along with new investments, rising popularity and the need to increase the number of

contact points with customers.

1

2

3

1

2

3

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

DNVB [Digital Native Vertical Brands], a fast-growing model

Page 12: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

12

233 new retailers since 2014Focus on new foreign retailers

Annual change in number of new foreign retailers in France

Data at end-June 2019

Number of stores by retailer

Share in % of total openings of new retailers since 2014 in France

• More than 40 new foreign retailers open in France each year. The contribution of these new foreign retailers is significant: the 233 foreign retailers

which have entered the French market since 2014 (incl. 28 so far in 2019) have opened just over 1,000 stores.

• However, few new retailers develop a meaningful network. The ten largest (in terms of number of stores) account for 57% of the total, incl. 26% for

Basic-Fit alone. In France since 2014, the Dutch retailer has a network of 271 fitness clubs, incl. more than a hundred opened since the beginning of

2018.

Source: Knight Frank

37

40

46

37

45

28

26%

31%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Moyenne 2014-2018

Source: Knight Frank

Others / Top 10Flying Tiger, Sostrene Grene,

Rituals, Nyx, Muy Mucho, etc.

Others / Excl. Top 10Pittarosso, Five Guys, Deichmann,

Old Wild West, Yamamay, etc.

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

Page 13: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

13

Fashion, but not only…Focus on new foreign retailers

• Although fashion has accounted for 44% of all new foreign retailers since 2014, the sector totals only 25% of the 1,040 stores opened by new

retailers over the past five years. The clothing sector’s problems may explain this under-representation. For large established brands the current

trend is cost-cutting, with cautious development for the most recent arrivals.

• The French retail market is now underpinned by a wide variety of activities. Among the fastest growing sectors are leisure, restaurants and

interior décor.

Breakdown by product category of new foreign retailers

in France since 2014

Top 3 by product category

Source: Knight Frank

Food/Restaurants

Number of retailers Total number of stores

Fashion

Accessories

Household/Discounters

Sports/Leisure

Fashion

Source: Knight Frank

44%

14%

13%

10%

8%

6%5%

NUMBER OF

NEW RETAILERS

TOTAL NUMBER

OF STORES

25%

7%

8%10%

30%

5%

15%

Fashion Beauty/Health Accessories Food/Restaurants

Sports/Leisure Household/Discounters Other

1

2

3

1

2

3

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

Page 14: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

14

Welcome to Paris!Focus on new foreign retailers

Location of first store of foreign retailers in France since 2014

Source: Knight Frank

• 63% of new foreign retailers in France since 2014 chose Paris for their first opening. Three neighbourhoods account for more than half of the first

openings on French high streets: Le Marais, the rue Saint-Honoré / place Vendôme sector, and Saint-Germain-des-Près.

• Although the best locations on high streets are targeted for the high visibility they provide retailers, several new retailers have opted for

shopping centres for their first store in France (Forum des Halles, Les 4 Temps, Cap 3000 etc.).

Types of locations chosen by new foreign retailers for first opening in

France since 2014

High streets Shopping centres

Retail warehousing Other (airports, railway stations, etc.)

Source: Knight Frank

70%

21%

5%4%

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

62%Paris

10%Greater Paris Region

(excl. Paris)

28%Provinces

Page 15: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

FASHION/SPORTSWEAR

BESSON

CHAUSSEA

DEICHMANN / SNIPES

INTERSPORT

JD SPORTS

JOTT

KIABI

PRIMARK

PROJECT X

TAKKO

VALEGE

Examples of developing retailersIn France, by activity

Sources: Knight Frank, press and retailers

15

RESTAURANTS

AU BUREAU

BISTRO RÉGENT

BURGER KING

CRÊP’EAT

IT TRATTORIA

LES BURGERS DE PAPA

O’TACOS

PRÊT À MANGER

VAPIANO

STARBUCKS

STEAK ‘N SHAKE

FOOD

ANGE

BIO C BON

BIOCOOP

DAY BY DAY

GRAND FRAIS

LA VIE CLAIRE

LOUISE

MARIE BLACHÈRE

NATURALIA

NATURÉO

THIRIET

OTHER

ACTION

BASIC FIT

CENTRAKOR

FITNESS PARK

IXINA

JIMMY FAIRLY

LUNETTES POUR TOUS

MAXI ZOO

MUY MUCHO

RITUALS

TOM & CO

Retail warehousing Shopping centres High streets

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats

Page 16: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

THE RENTAL MARKET

HIGH STREETS

FIRST HALF OF 2019

Page 17: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

17

• Although it had steadily lost momentum, the yellow vest movement

impacted retail activity in H1 2019, especially on high streets which

require significant security measures (e.g. rue du Faubourg Saint-

Honoré). In addition, the fall in reservations observed at the end of

2018 was felt in Q1 2019, with an annual decline of 6.3% of foreign

tourists in Paris. Nonetheless, visitor numbers remain higher than those

for 2017.

• Robust foreign visitor numbers continue to be vital to the luxury market.

Upscale hotels are still being opened on or near several major Right

Bank high streets (Costes expansion project, high-profile openings of

Cheval Blanc, So Sofitel and Bulgari hotels, etc.). The trend for luxury

retailers remains positive, with more than 40 openings already in

2019, compared with 48 for all of 2018. The place Vendôme / rue de

la Paix / rue Saint-Honoré sector accounts for 55% of all luxury store

openings expected in Paris in 2019, compared with 55% over the past

five years. This high proportion reflects the success of rue Saint-

Honoré and the vitality of the watch–jewellery sector. Graff, Cartier,

Qeelin, Gucci and Van Cleef & Arpels all plan either creations,

expansions or refurbishments. The Golden Triangle is also very

dynamic. Several large development projects are anticipated or have

been announced, such as the new Dior flagship opened at 127 avenue

des Champs-Élysées. The Dior showcase at 30 avenue Montaigne is

slated to reopen with space expanded to nearly 3,000 m².

• The appeal of the Paris market is also reflected by arrivals of new

foreign brands and retailers, which are positioned for the most part in

the mid-to-high range. After 26 new retailers in Paris in 2018, 25

have already been confirmed for 2019 and 2020. Some of the most

significant are Eataly, which opened retail space of 2,400 m² in Le

Marais; Icicle, which will soon open at 35 avenue George V; and Kith,

whose Paris flagship will open in 2020.

• Besides Eataly, highlights of H1 2019 included several high-profile

openings of large and very large spaces, such as Galeries Lafayette on

the Champs-Élysées and IKEA in the Madeleine sector. Despite these

deals, the supply of large spaces has not diminished. On the

contrary, supply is boosted by redevelopment projects (Champs-

Élysées), retailer difficulties and the desire of certain retailers to

optimise their store network.

• Supply is especially abundant on certain high streets (e.g. rue de

Rivoli). However, the upcoming Nouvelle Samaritaine project as well as

the negotiations under way for several large spaces (former H&M,

former Gap, etc.) suggest that a comeback of this backbone of the

Right Bank may be on the horizon.

• The outlook is not as clear for the principal Left Bank high streets,

which depend less on foreign tourism. Despite openings of a few major

projects (Arije on rue de Rennes, Chaumet on boulevard Saint-

Germain, etc.), retailer demand on the Left Bank is not as strong as

on the other side of the Seine. Rental values fall from time to time,

as seen on rue de Rennes.

High-profile openingsThe high-street market in Paris

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris

Page 18: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Examples of recent transactions and openings in ParisSource: Knight Frank

Retailer Address District Area (m²)

GIBERT JOSEPH 123 avenue de France Paris 13th 2,800

LACOSTE 50 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 2,700

DIOR 127 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 2,000

KITH Confidential Paris 8th Confidential

DIOR 261 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 925

SOSTRENE GRENE 8-10 rue de Rivoli Paris 4th 500

DELVAUX 368 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 400

XIAOMI 49 avenue de l’Opéra Paris 2nd 380

BURBERRY 378 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 350

CELINE 4 rue Duphot Paris 1st 350

UNISPORT 4 rue Berger Paris 1st 300

DUBAIL* 71 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 270

BALIBARIS 65 rue de Passy Paris 16th 210

WEEKDAY 8 rue de Marseille Paris 10th 200

18*Extension

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris

Page 19: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Downward pressure on Paris Left BankPrime rental values, in Paris, in €/sq. m/year Zone A*

Source: Knight Frank

Street or retail area District Rent

as at H1 2018

Rent

as at H2 2019

Trend

Avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 20,000 20,000 ➔

Avenue Montaigne Paris 8th 15,000 15,000 ➔

Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré Paris 8th 15,000 15,000 ➔

Rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 12,000 13,000

Boulevard Haussmann Paris 8th / 9th 6,000 6,000 ➔

Marais Paris 3rd / 4th 5,000 5,000 ➔

Sèvres / Saint-Germain Paris 6th / 7th 5,000 4,000

Capucines / Madeleine Paris 1st / 2nd / 8th / 9th 4,000 4,000 ➔

Rue de Rivoli Paris 1st / 4th 4,000 3,500

Rue de Rennes Paris 6th 4,000 3,000

Rue de Passy Paris 16th 3,000 3,000 ➔

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 H

1

Champs-Elysees

Avenue Montaigne

Rue Saint-Honoré

Rue des Francs-Bourgeois

Bd Saint-Germain / Rue de Sèvres

Changes in prime rental values Between 2006 and 2019 (H1), on some

Parisian streets, in €/sq. m/year Zone A*

Source: Knight Frank

19

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris

*Rental value: decapitalised rent + assignment (leasehold/business)

Page 20: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

14

A highly concentrated marketExamples of recent and future projects

Source: Knight Frank

Flagships

1 2

3 NIKE 4 ADIDAS

DIORGALERIES LAFAYETTE

5 6

7 GRAFF 8 BALMAIN

SAINT LAURENTLACOSTE

9

VICTORIA’S SECRET

BURBERRYIKEA

EATALY

Railway stations

10

11 12

13

GARE MONTPARNASSE GARE D’AUSTERLITZ

GARE DU NORD

15 16

17

Other

ITALIK (EXT. ITALIE 2) ATELIERS GAITÉ18 19

SAMARITAINE / DFS POSTE DU LOUVRE20 21

MY CARDINET MORLAND MIXITÉ CAPITALE22 23

MK2 CHAMPS-ÉLYSÉES FONDATION PINAULT24 25

FONDATION CARTIER26

23 4

5

26

78

910

11

12

13

17

1516

26

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

1

International

Tourist Zones

ZARA

ETAM / UNDIZ

1

14

2

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris

Page 21: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

• Although momentum of the yellow vest movement has slowed in recent

months, other problems have appeared in the provinces in 2019. In

mid-sized cities already hurt by economic slowdown, demonstration-

related violence has further weakened retailers because of the cost of

damage and the loss of foot traffic. Clashes have also penalised retail

business in provincial capitals such as Bordeaux, where sales declined

30–60% on demonstration routes, and Nantes, where FNAC and

Galeries Lafayette estimate a total loss of nearly one million customers

since November 2018.

• The scale of the disturbances worsened problems already experienced

by both independent and large retailers, which may accelerate their

cost-cutting operations. In recent months, several significant closings

have been either finalised or announced in the fashion sector in Metz

(Kiabi and New Yorker on rue Serpenoise), Nancy (H&M on rue Saint-

Jean) and Lille, where H&M and Zara closed their stores on rue de

Béthune.

• At the same time, Zara opened a flagship of nearly 4,000 m² on rue de

la Bourse, while H&M continued to expand its network of stores in

secondary cities (e.g. a store opened in June 2019 in the city centre of

Agen).

• Besides the fashion sector, sporting goods (Snipes at 45 rue Saint-

Ferréol in Marseille), health and beauty, and interior décor have created

demand for high streets and shopping centres.

• The boom of food shops and restaurants has also persisted.

Numerous new restaurants have opened or are in the planning stages,

incl. several in Lyon on rue de la République (IT Trattoria, Steak

n’ Shake, Les Burgers de Papa, etc.). The many examples of French

and foreign chains developing in city centres include Big Fernand in

Brest, Five Guys in Nancy and Clermont-Ferrand, Vapiano in Nancy

and Lille, Starbucks in Toulouse, etc.

• The expansion of “emerging” DNVB, already well established in

Paris, also benefits other regions of France, particularly large cities but

also smaller ones with significant tourist activity and high purchasing

power (Jimmy Fairly in Strasbourg and Toulouse, Lunettes pour Tous in

Nice, Balibaris in Aix-en-Provence and Cannes, etc.).

• At the same time, the trend towards smaller or less attractive cities

is as strong as ever. On 19 March 2019, Jacqueline Gourault, Minister

of Territorial Cohesion, announced the cities awarded the “Reinvent Our

City Centres” expression of interest at the second “City Centre

Action” national meeting. The objective is to renovate an iconic city-

centre site, and to encourage innovative urban projects. Of the 112 mid-

sized city candidates, 55 will be helped starting in 2019 to organise calls

for tender, while the 57 others will be aided specifically for their own

projects.

21

Mixed resultsThe high-street market in the provinces

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Provinces

Page 22: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Examples of openings and recent projects in the regions

Sources: Knight Frank, press and retailers

22

Cities in the Top 10

French urban areas

Other cities

LILLEZara & Zara Home / Stella Forest / Vapiano

Anthony Garçon

Le 31

STRASBOURGPrimark / Copper Branch

Faguo / Jimmy Fairly

LYONYaya / Ralph Lauren / Ysé

Made.com / Eric Bompard

King Jouet / Steak ‘n Shake

AIX /

MARSEILLEBalibaris / Snipes

Mad Vintage

42 Saint-Ferréol

NANTESUniqlo / Maxi Bazar

Biloba Plaza

Halles Alstom

RENNESPalais du Commerce

TOULOUSEPrimark / Uniqlo

Tiger / Dr Martens

Jimmy Fairly / Starbucks

BORDEAUXAesop / Bexley

Bordeaux Saint-JeanNICELunettes pour Tous / Boggi

Bolia.com /Copper Branch

Gare du Sud

Iconic

CANNESDolce & Gabbana / Lorena Antoniazzi

Sessun / Balibaris

Le Slip français

NANCYFive Guys

Nespresso / Starbucks

Bistrot Régent

xxx Examples of store openings

xxxExamples of new/redevelopment

projects in city centres

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Provinces

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Prime rental valuesIn the regions, end Q2 2019, in €/sq. m/year Zone A*

Source: Knight Frank

23

1,400 / 1,600

1,400 / 1,600

1,700 / 1,900

1,800 / 2,000

1,800 / 2,000

2,200 / 2,400

2,200 / 2,400

2,200 / 2,500

Nantes

Marseille

Strasbourg

Toulouse

Lille

Nice

Bordeaux

Lyon

€ 0 € 500 € 1,000 € 1,500 € 2,000 € 2,500 € 3,000

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Provinces

*Rental value: decapitalised rent + assignment (leasehold/business)

Page 24: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

FOCUS ON THE

PARIS LUXURY MARKET

FIRST HALF OF 2019

Page 25: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

6%

7%

14%

10%

8%

7%

17%

17%

30%

12%

11%

18%

AccelerationSales worldwide of luxury goods

25

Sources: Bain & Company / Altagamma

• After slowing slightly in 2018, luxury sales should accelerate in 2019, rising between 4% and 8% for the year. Recent results of large luxury

groups confirm this vitality. Another major factor is Chinese consumers, which could account for nearly half of the global market by 2025, compared

with one-third currently.

• Excluding Asia, results are inconsistent and depend on the geographic area. In Europe, sales remain positive, boosted by growth in international

tourism. However, changes in the political and social environment will continue to be a key factor (Brexit, yellow jacket movement, etc.).

Asia driving growthAnnual growth in sales in Q1 2019 (%)

Sources: Hermès, LVMH, Kering / *USA for LVMH

TotalAmericas*

Asia (excl. Japan)Europe

150

161

159

147

167

186

207

212

219

245

244

254

260

271-2

76

8%

7%

-1%

-8%

14%

11%

11%

2% 3%

12%

0%

4%

2%

4-6

%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f

Sales (€ bn) Annual growth (%)

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market

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Luxury goes omnichannelGlobal luxury market by sales format

26

Source: Bain & Company

• Boosted by growth in the Asian market and by the consumer appetite of younger generations, online sales accounted for nearly 10% of total luxury

sales worldwide in 2018 (+22% year on year). This share could total as much as 25% in 2025.

• Although large luxury groups have increased their investments in online sales, they are not neglecting other sales channels. More mature brands

tend to handle directly-operated stores, which allows them to control their image and the buying experience of customers.

Source: Kering, Capital Markets Day 2019

There are plenty of touch points,

so we adapt tools and processes to

maintain consistency in marketing,

but also to inject personalization

and emotions into each contact

point, physical or digital.

Jean-François Palus, Group Managing Director, Kering

25%

29%

17%

22%

13%

20%

13%

12%

7%

6%

25%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2025f

2018

Single-brand stores Specialised stores Department stores Outlets Airport stores Online sales

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market

Page 27: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

The same bases as in 2018

• Over forty luxury stores are slated to open in Paris in 2019. Some have already been completed, such as Saint Laurent, Céline and Graff in the

rue Saint-Honoré sector.

• Work on existing sites remains a significant concern. Extensions and refurbishments account for the largest share of openings (30% in 2019,

compared with 17% on average between 2014 and 2018), reflecting the desire of large groups for bigger, more beautiful spaces. Major

development projects over the next two years include the 425 m² extension of the Cartier store at 11 rue de la Paix, and the 1900 m² extension of

the Dior flagship at 30 avenue Montaigne. 27

Change in the number of luxury store openings

In Paris

Source: Knight Frank / *Data at end-June 2019

Openings by type

Share in % of total openings in Paris

Source: Knight Frank

Average 2014-2018

2016

2017

2018

2019*

40

26

40

51

4848% 48%

17%

30%

16%

10%

19%12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Average 2014-2018 2019

Creation Extension / Refurbishment Relocation Temporary store

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market

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28

Examples of recent / upcoming openings

# Retailer Address District

1 Arije 41 rue de Rennes Paris 6th

2 Balmain 374 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st

3 Buccellati 239 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st

4 Cartier* 11 rue de la Paix Paris 2nd

5 Céline 4 rue Duphot Paris 1st

6 Chaumet 165 boulevard Saint-Germain Paris 6th

7 Delvaux 368 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st

8 Dior* 30 avenue Montaigne Paris 8th

9 Dior 127 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th

10 Dubail* 71 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th

11 Graff 237 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st

12 Gucci 16 place Vendôme Paris 1st

13 Qeelin 26 place Vendôme Paris 1st

14 Saint Laurent 213 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st

15 Van Cleef & Arpels* 20 place Vendôme Paris 1st

1

6

1213

15

45

27

11 14

10

8

9

3

*Extension / Source: Knight Frank

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market

Page 29: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

The year of watches–jewellery

• Of the openings planned for Paris in 2019, the dominant sector will be watches–jewellery. Unsurprisingly these are concentrated around the

Vendôme / Saint-Honoré district (Graff, Buccellati, Gucci, etc.). A few significant projects are also planned for other neighbourhoods in Paris

(Chaumet and Arije on the Left Bank, the Dubail extension on the Champs-Élysées, etc.).

• LVMH Group remains the most active player in the Paris luxury market, with nine openings in 2019 (Dior on the Champs-Élysées, Céline on

rue Duphot, etc.). LVMH is ahead of Richemont, whose transactions (whether recent or to come) concern mainly refurbishment and

extension projects for Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels in the place Vendôme / rue de la Paix sector. 29

Openings by product category*

Top 3 of luxury store openings in Paris

Source: Knight Frank / *Top three categories

Openings by group

Luxury stores in Paris, in 2019

Source: Knight Frank

1

2

3

Cosmetics

2014-2018

7%

Watches-Jewellery

Fashion

Cosmetics

2019

50%

38%

8%

Fashion

45%

Watches-Jewellery

31%

23%

8%

13%

8%

48%

LVMH

Kering

Richemont

Chanel

Other

1

2

3

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market

Page 30: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Saint-Honoré / Paix / Vendôme: 55% of openings!

• The sector comprising rue Saint-Honoré, place Vendôme and rue de la Paix accounts for 55% of all luxury store openings in Paris in 2019

(compared with 32% between 2014 and 2018). A few high-profile openings have been completed or are planned in the Golden Triangle (e.g. Dior at

127 avenue des Champs-Élysées).

• The trend of focusing large luxury groups on the Right Bank’s most prestigious high streets explains the limited number of openings on other high

streets. Occasionally there are a few high-profile projects and openings, including a very small number of creations (Arige at 41 rue de Rennes,

etc.). 30

Breakdown of openings by high street

Share in % of total openings in Paris

Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank

Graff

Saint Laurent

Buccellati

Delvaux

Louboutin

Balmain,

etc.

20192011

Chanel

Pucci

Marni

Pomellato

Billionaire

Moschino,

etc.

Dior

Vuitton

Stella

McCartney

David Morris

Christofle,

etc.

Dior Parfums

Fendi

Paul Smith

Marc Jacobs

Brioni,

Lyubov,

etc.

Mulberry

Tory Burch

Missoni

La Prairie

Alexander

McQueen,

etc.

2018201720162015

Grand

opening of

Mandarin

Oriental

Rue Saint-Honoré:53 openings since 2015, of which 45% are creations

21%

11%

9%

10%

5%

8%

11%

7%

18%

30%

25%

10%

8%

8%

8%

5%

2%

4%

Rue Saint-Honoré

Vendôme / Paix

George V / François 1er

Faubourg Saint-Honoré

Champs-Elysées

Sèvres / Saint-Germain

Montaigne

Marais

Other

2019 2014-2018

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market

Page 31: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Luxury hotels in ParisRecent and future openings

31

Source: Knight Frank

Recent openings

1Hôtel Fauchon

Paris 8th

Creation: 2018

4Lutétia

Paris 6th

Refurbishment: 2018

2Hôtel de Berri

Paris 8th

Creation: 2018

Future openings

7Hôtel du Génie / Autograph Collection

Paris 7th

Creation: 2019

8Cheval Blanc Samaritaine

Paris 1st

Creation: 2020

3La Clef Champs-Élysées

Paris 8th

Creation: 2018

Kimpton Paris Opéra

Paris 2nd

Creation: 2020

9Bulgari Paris

Paris 8th

Creation: 2020

10So Sofitel Champs-Élysées

Paris 8th

Création: 2022

Maison Albar Opéra

Paris 9th

Creation: 2019

Grand Powers

Paris 8th

Refurbishment: 2019

5

Creation

Refurbishment / Extension

JK Place

Paris 7th

Creation: 2019

6Hôtel du Louvre

Paris 1st

Refurbishment: 2019

Sinner / Evok

Paris 4th

Creation: 2019

Goralska

Paris 1st

Creation: 2020

Poste du Louvre

Paris 1st

Creation: 2020

1

2

4

17

5

7

3

8

9

10

Costes

Paris 1st

Extension: 201917

6

11

11

12

12

13

13

14

14

15

15

16

16

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market

Page 32: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

THE RENTAL MARKET

RETAIL COMPLEXES

FIRST HALF OF 2019

Page 33: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

• Although visitor numbers are slightly higher than last year’s (+1.9%

in Q2 2019*), performances of shopping centres vary widely, depending

on the format. Shopping malls have been weakened. Their results are

driven by hypermarkets, which themselves have been hurt by a decline

in foot traffic. Moreover, the most recent Procos study confirms the

problems of city-centre shopping centres, which were penalised by

the yellow vest movement and by the loss of some of their customers to

peripheral shopping zones.

• Vacancy rates are in acceptable ranges in the largest shopping centres,

and property-investment firms show solid results. These centres are

preferred by international retailers, both for their high flow of customers

and the visibility the centres provide. Sporting goods and fast-fashion

companies continue to open large stores in these centres, but other

sectors are also active in all types of spaces (Lego, Nespresso, Five

Guys, etc.). In addition, the largest centres capture the demand of new

foreign retailers, such as Victoria’s Secret in Forum des Halles, the

announcement by Xiaomi of its first opening in the provinces (at La Part-

Dieu), and the upcoming arrival of Normal at Passage du Havre and

Belle-Epine.

• Outside the prime segment, certain retailers are taking advantage of

beneficial leasing terms to expand their network. Two Dutch retailers

are especially active. Basic-Fit has replaced La Grande Récré in Les

Halles du Beffroi in Amiens, and plans to open in Eléis in Cherbourg.

Action has opened in Argenteuil (Côté Seine) and Toulon (Centre

Mayol), and plans to open in Metz (Saint-Jacques).

• The ecological crisis, weakening purchasing power, an aging

population, the digital revolution: these factors and more are affecting

demand and changing the shopping centre market. The recent

change in tenant mix illustrates how societal concerns have already

been taken into account by landlords and retailers, as seen in the

development of higher quality restaurants, concept stores for health and

well-being, leisure activities etc. New hybrid and collaborative models

are also being tested to replace formats which have fallen out of favour.

Examples include shop-in-shops at Casino hypermarkets (e.g.

Cdiscount and Le Drugstore Parisien or external partners such as Maty,

etc.).

• Modification of shopping centres also requires architectural work on

existing centres. Extension, refurbishment and redevelopment will

be the key words from the second half of 2019 to the end of 2021, with

development projects such as La Part-Dieu in Lyon, Italik and Les

Ateliers Gaité in Paris, Les Trois Fontaines in Cergy and Polygone in

Montpellier.

• Projects designed to revive flagging assets are also rising, along with

market opportunities. This trend is illustrated by several notable success

stories, such as the project to revive the Domus shopping centre in

Rosny-sous-Bois. Other repositioning deals are under way, whose

effects will be measurable in the months to come. Examples are the Jeu

de Paume in Beauvais, acquired by Foncière Immobilière Bordelaise in

2018, and the Galerie des Tanneurs in Lille, acquired the same year by

a Lyon-based investor.

Cards redistributedThe French shopping centre market

33*Source: CNCC

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETShopping centres

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34

Centre Town Type Area (m²)

Lillenium Lille (59) Creation 56,300

Open Sky Plaisir (78) Creation 37,000

Cap 3000 Saint-Laurent-du-Var (06) Extension / Redevelopment 32,500

La Part-Dieu Lyon (69) Extension / Redevelopment 30,600

Les Ateliers Gaité Paris (75014) Extension / Redevelopment 27,800

Vélizy 2 Vélizy-Villacoublay (78) Extension / Redevelopment 19,600

Nice Lingostière Nice (06) Extension / Redevelopment 12,000

Créteil Soleil Créteil (94) Extension / Redevelopment 11,600

Saint-Sever Rouen (76) Extension / Redevelopment 7,000

Les Berges de l’Ourcq Les Pavillons-sous-Bois (93) Creation 6,800

Italik (Italie 2) Paris (75013) Extension / Redevelopment 6,400

Rennes-Cesson Cesson-Sévigné (35) Extension / Redevelopment 6,000

Examples of significant shopping centre projects 2019-2020

Source: Knight Frank

Cap 3000, Saint-Laurent-du-Var (06)

Les Ateliers Gaité, Paris 14th

Italik, Paris 13th

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETShopping centres

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Some good, some not so good…The French retail warehousing market

35

• The year 2018 ended on a negative note because of the yellow vest

movement and retail losses. Although tensions had subsided, new

actions to block retail zones were carried out in the first half.

Moreover, last year’s results were tarnished by poor performances of

some of the most prevalent activities on the outskirts, i.e. garden-supply

and pet stores (sales down 1.5% in 2018) and furniture stores (–2.7%).

The furniture sector has since bounced back, rising 4.8% in the first five

months of 2019.

• While the market seems to be better overall, this improvement should

be taken with a grain of salt. Difficulties increased for several large

retailers in peripheral zones (e.g. Vivarte Group, which is now unable

to reimburse debt). In recent months Chantemur was liquidated, while

Kingfisher Group closed several Castorama and Brico Dépôt stores

across France. In addition, Conforama announced a drastic

restructuring plan involving the closing of more than 40 Conforama

and Maison Dépôt stores.

• These challenges are in stark contrast with the ongoing expansion of

large discount retailers such as Action. Other include Stokomani, which

recently opened its hundredth store in France, and Centrakor, which

now has more than 400 stores and has begun to expand internationally.

Gifi is also opening stores, mainly through the integration of Tati stores

acquired in 2017.

• In other sectors, groups are using synergies between retailers to

lower costs, adapt to new consumer habits and boost growth.

Beaumanoir Group is using this type of combined development to open

its Vibs multi-stores, while Fnac/Darty is growing across France

through dynamic use of local franchises.

• Other business segments continue to grow, such as sporting goods

(sportswear, fitness), restaurants and food shops. For example, organic

food is growing rapidly, underpinned by the expansion of existing

retailers in peripheral zones and by the testing of formats outside city

centres in order to target new customers (Naturalia in Brétigny-sur-

Orge).

• While the growth potential of new retail parks remains strong, there

were few completions in H1 2019 (Saint-Berthevin, near Laval, etc.).

A few large projects are expected by the end of the year, such as

the Shopping Promenade d’Arles and Eden 2 in Servon (Seine-et-

Marne).

• Just as for shopping centres, though to a lesser degree, the emphasis

is increasingly on the redevelopment of existing retail zones, as

seen in projects carried out by Frey in Strasbourg and Toulouse. A sign

of the times, a second working group has met as part of the call for

projects in the “Rethinking Retail in Peripheral Zones” launched in

December 2017 by the Ministry of Territorial Cohesion. The goal is to

“enhance the awareness, methods and operational tools for the

modernisation of retail zones in the inner suburbs”.

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetail parks

Page 36: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

36

Centre Town Type Area (m²)

Steel Saint-Étienne (42) Creation 70,000

Coeur d’Alsace Shopping Promenade Vendenheim (67) Redevelopment 70,000

Puisoz Vénissieux (69) Creation 50,000

Les Promenades de Brétigny Brétigny-sur-Orge (91) Creation 50,000

Woodshop Cesson (77) Redevelopment 42,000

Open Sky Buchelay (78) Redevelopment 40,000

Shopping Promenade Claye-Souilly (77) Creation 40,000

Eden (phase 2) Servon (77) Creation 33,000

Shopping Promenade Arles (13) Creation 19,000

Les Montagnes Ouest (phase 2) Champniers (16) Extension 13,500

Pop’A Lescure Lescure d’Albigeois (81) Creation 12,250

The Snow Sallanches (74) Creation 12,000

Pop’A Autun Autun (71) Creation 11,700

La Colleraye Savenay (44) Extension 9,000

Steel, Saint-Etienne (42)

Shopping Promenade Arles, Arles (13)

The Snow, Sallanches (74)

Examples of significant retail park projects 2019-2020

Source: Knight Frank

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetail parks

Page 37: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

More than 100,000 m² since 2017The French factory outlet market

• Several large projects have been opened over the

past three years. In 2017 there was Miramas’

McArthurGlen (25,000 m²) and the Honfleur

Normandy Outlet (12,700 m²). Highlights of 2018

included the opening of The Village (25,000 m²),

developed by Compagnie de Phalsbourg in

Villefontaine, not far from Lyon. The Village had

nearly four million visitors in its first year. Now it is

the turn of Île-de-France to make headlines in 2019,

with the impending opening of Paddock Paris

(21,000 m²) in Romainville. The new facility,

developed by Fiminco (Adidas, Reebok,

Etam/Undiz, Delsey, etc.), features a food hall of

800 m² and 75 stores. Galeries Lafayette will open

1,200 m² there, the latest addition to their outlet

network after openings in Saint-Denis, Vélizy-

Villacoublay and Villefontaine (The Village).

• Factory outlets continue to sprout up across the

Paris region, with several large sites in the northern

suburbs (Marques Avenue in Île-Saint-Denis), the

southern suburbs (–X% in Massy, Marques Avenue

in Corbeil-Essonnes), the western suburbs (Marques

Avenue A13, One Nation Paris, etc.) and the eastern

suburbs (La Vallée Village in Marne-la-Vallée).

• In all, factory outlets opened in France between

the beginning of 2017 and the end of 2019

totalled nearly 100,000 m², with an existing

supply of more than 500,000 m² mainly in

northern France.

• Numerous projects are planned for 2020 and

beyond, such as 20,000 m² developed by Neinver in

Châtillon-en-Michaille, near the Swiss border (Alpes

The Style Outlets), and 18,000 m² for McArthurGlen

in Douains, near Evreux, for which construction was

recently begun. Both will be opened in 2021.

• The format’s popularity, the need for retailers to

clear their stock, and the growth potential of certain

regions still relatively undeveloped leave little doubt

that there are more deals in the pipeline. Yet

uncertainties persist. In addition to the need to

reach a certain level of pre-lettings, legal recourse is

increasingly frequent as supply grows. After the

factory outlet in Sorigny (Indre-et-Loire) at the end of

2018, authorisation for the Village Outlet in Coutras,

outside Bordeaux, was also refused in May 2019,

with an unfavourable decision by the CNAC.

37

Change in openings in France

In m², total volume per year*

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source: Knight Frank

*Definite and possible operations

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFactory outlets

Page 38: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Source: Knight Frank

Examples of significant factory outlet openings and projects

Year Centre Town Type Area (m²)

2011 Nailloux Outlet Village Nailloux (31) Creation 24,800

2012 The Style Outlets Roppenheim (67) Creation 27,300

2013 One Nation Paris Les-Clayes-sous-Bois (78) Creation 24,000

2015 Marques Avenue A13 Aubergenville (78) Redevelopment 13,700

2017 Honfleur Normandy Outlet Honfleur Creation 12,700

2017 McArthurGlen Provence Miramas Creation 25,000

2018 The Village Villefontaine (38) Creation 25,000

Year Centre Town Type Area (m²)

2019 Viaduc Village (Phase 1) La Cavalerie (12) Creation 7,500

2019 Paddock Romainville (93) Creation 20,000

2021 Alpes The Style Outlets Châtillon-en-Michaille (01) Creation 19,000

2021 McArthurGlen Douains (27) Creation 18,000

2021 Designer Outlet l’Escale Hautmont (59) Creation 10,500

> 2021 Village de marques Coutras (33) Creation 19,20038

Openings 2011-2018

Future projects

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFactory outlets

Page 39: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

T H E I N V E S T M E N T

M A R K E T

FIRST HALF OF 2019

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40

H1 2019 H1 2018 Annual trend

Retail investment volume in France €1.3 bn €1.6 bn

Share of retail* 11% 13%

Number of transactions > €100 million 1 4

Share of Ile-de-France** 32% 55%

Share of foreign investors** 45% 56%

Prime yield | High streets 2.90% 2.75%

Prime yield | Shopping centres 4.25% 4.25% ➔

Prime yield | Retail parks 5.00% 5.00% ➔

Source: Knight Frank

*On total investment in France,all asset types (excl. non divisible portfolios)

** On total retail investment in France

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market

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• Running counter to the office trend, amounts invested in the French retail market decreased by 24% between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2019, from

725 to 550 million euros.

• Since January, the retail sector saw investment volumes of €1.3 billion, a 21% decrease compared to the first half of 2018, which benefited

from the sale to BVK of the new Apple Store on the Champs-Elysées for almost €600 million.

A sluggish first halfChange in retail investment volumes In France

Source: Knight Frank

41

€ 4,700

€ 1,275

16%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

€ 0

€ 1,000

€ 2,000

€ 3,000

€ 4,000

€ 5,000

€ 6,000

€ 7,000

€ 8,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H12019

Retail investment volume France Retail share (%)

-21%Year on year

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market

Page 42: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Significant transactions in 2019

Source: Knight Frank

Address / Asset Type City Seller Purchaser Price

Casino portfolio SC France Casino Fortress Investment Group

Portfolio RW / SC / HS France Meyer Bergman Paref

Portfolio RW France - Valimmo

C&A | Tour CIT Montparnasse SC Paris 15th Redevco NRS Invest

Canyon portfolio SC/ RW France Ceetrus Othrys AM

6 rue de Sèvres HS Paris 6th Société Générale Thor Equities

Portfolio RW Aisne - Patrimoine & Commerce

Cora Creil Saint-Maximin SC Saint-Maximin (60) Klepierre Galimmo

Chamblyrama RW Chambly (60) - Altixia Reim

Éclats portfolio RW Greater Paris region LIM Groupe Duval

Portfolio HS Greater Paris region Financière JL Groupama Gan Reim

Atlas portfolio HS Paris Louvre Capital AEW Ciloger

NB: HS High street, RW Retail warehousing, SC Shopping centre< €50M €50-100M €100-200M > €200M 42

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market

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Gradual rebalancingBreakdown of retail investment volume by geography

Source: Knight Frank

• After having largely dominated activity in the first quarter (90% of the amounts committed in France), the share of regions is lower at the end of

the first half of 2019 but remains very high (67%).

• After a sluggish start to the year, Paris saw its share increase to 25% of amounts invested in retail (after 6% in the first quarter) with a few

transactions such as Redevco's sale of the C&A store in Montparnasse and Thor Equities' acquisition of 6 rue de Sèvres for nearly €50 million.

48%

7%

42%

3% 25%

7%

67%

1%

Paris

Greater Paris region - Excl. Paris

Provinces

Indivisible portfolios

H1 2019

H1 2018

Significant deals in 2019

Province Paris / IDF

Casin

o

port

folio

6 ru

e d

e S

èvre

sC

&A

Montp

arn

asse

43

20 P

aris

ian

assets

portfo

lio

27 r

eta

ilassets

port

folio

Source: Knight Frank

Reta

ilw

are

housin

g

port

folio

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market

Page 44: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

• Shopping centres and galleries still account for the majority of retail investment volumes (45% in H1 2019) due to the sale by Casino to

Fortress of a portfolio of 26 hypermarket and supermarket properties for almost 400 million euros. However, this market segment remained virtually

flat in the second quarter, while high street and retail park assets saw a slight increase in activity.

• Nevertheless, for the retail park market, mid-year results are mixed, with volumes down 19% year-on-year. In the high street sector, a few portfolio

sales and rare acquisitions of prime Parisian assets made it possible to offset some of the slowdown of the first quarter.

High streets regain groundBreakdown of retail investment volume by asset typeIn France

Source: Knight Frank

38%

60%

32%

26%

29%

23%

36%

11%

45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2019

High streets Retail warehousing Shopping centres

44

45%Share of shopping centres

in the first half of 2019

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market

Nevertheless, for the retail park market, mid-year results are mixed.

Page 45: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

French take the leadBreakdown of retail investment volume by nationalityFrance, in H1 2019

Source: Knight Frank

• While Americans accounted for the majority of retail investment in Q1, French investors were the most active over the first half of the year.

The latter account for 53% of the amounts committed on the retail market and are behind some of the largest deals of Q2, such as the acquisition

by Paref of a portfolio of 27 assets in the provinces for €94 million.

• Investment funds have accounted for the majority of sums invested on the French retail market (46%) since the beginning of 2019, ahead of

private investors and property-investment firms.

Funds still in the top spotBreakdown of retail investment volume by investor type

France, in H1 2019

Source: Knight Frank

55%

2%2%

40%

1%

France

€ zone

Europe (outside € zone)

North America

Other

46%

18%

16%

17%

3%

Funds

Property investmentcompanies

SCPI / OPCI

Private investors

Other

45

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market

Page 46: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

46

StabilisationPrime retail yields In France, as a %

Source: Knight Frank

2.90

4.25

5.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

Q2

201

9

High streets Regional shopping centres Retail parks

2009-2018

Change

Shopping

Centres

-23%

High

streets

-39%

Retail

parks

-31%

• Prime yields for Parisian retail streets, shopping centres and retail parks have not changed since the beginning of the year, and stand at 2.90%,

4.25% and 5.00% respectively.

• However, it should be noted that there are very few transaction references for prime assets.

THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market

Page 47: First Half 2019 - Knight Frank · France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising purposes, connecting of users via platforms). 8 *Bill concerning the fight against waste

Contacts

Antoine GrignonPartner | Head of Retail Capital

Markets & Leasing

+33 (0)1 43 16 88 70

+33 (0)6 73 86 11 02

[email protected]

David BourlaPartner | Chief Economist &

Head of Research

+33 (0)1 43 16 55 75

+33 (0)7 84 07 94 96

[email protected]

Vianney d’ErsuPartner | Retail Leasing

+33 (0)1 43 16 56 04

+33 (0)6 75 26 03 96

[email protected]

Antoine SalmonPartner | Head of Retail Leasing

+33 (0)1 43 16 88 64

+33 (0)6 09 17 81 76

[email protected]

47