first half 2019 - knight frank · france (online advertising, sale of data for advertising...
TRANSCRIPT
THE RETAIL PROPERTY
MARKET
FRANCE
R E TA I L
First Half 2019
PURCHASING POWER
+2.1% in 2019*
Record level since 2007
Source: Banque de France
*Annual increase / Forecast
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE*
101 in June 2019
+14 points since January 2019
Source: INSEE
*Synthetic confidence index
INFLATION*
+1.3% in 2019
+2.1% in 2018
Source: Banque de France
*Including energy and food
SPECIALISED RETAIL SALES*
+0.5% in H1 2019*
+24.6% for online sales
Source: Procos
*Annual increase, in France
LUXURY STORES
40 openings in 2019*
40 on average between 2014 and 2018
Source: Knight Frank
*In Paris, data at end-June 2019
AMOUNTS INVESTED*
€1.3 bn in H1 2019
-21% year on year
Source: Knight Frank
*In France, all asset types
PRIME RENT (Zone A)
€20,000/m²/year in H1 2019*
€20,000/m²/year in H1 2018
Source: Knight Frank
*Champs-Élysées
HOTEL ARRIVALS*
-1.5% in Q1 2019**
+6.3% in comparison with Q1 2017
Source: Paris Tourism Office
*Total number, in Paris / **Annual increase
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETKey figures
2
ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT
FIRST HALF OF 2019
RobustEconomic indicators for FranceAnnual growth in %, unless otherwise noted
Indicator 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
GDP 1.0 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4
Inflation 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.4
Household consumption 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.5
Household income¹ 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.3 1.5 1.3
Unemployment (France) 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.1
• After peaking in 2017 and slowing in 2018, the French economy will continue to decline in 2019 because of a less favourable global economy. The
low level of exports should be compensated by more robust domestic demand, even though consumer spending has been weak since the
beginning of the year.
• Although the French are currently putting their cash into savings products, they may gradually increase their consumer spending. Purchasing power
has improved significantly, consumer confidence has risen and the yellow vest movement is running out of steam. 4
Back to normalHousehold opinion
Composite index – Data adjusted for seasonal and working-day variations
108
87
101
80
90
100
110
120
130
ma
rs-0
0
févr-
01
janv-0
2
déc-0
2
nov-0
3
oct-
04
sep
t-05
août-
06
juil-
07
juin
-08
ma
i-09
avr-
10
ma
rs-1
1
févr-
12
janv-1
3
déc-1
3
nov-1
4
oct-
15
sep
t-16
août-
17
juil-
18
juin
-19
Source: INSEE
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETEconomic and political environment
¹Household gross disposable income / f: forecast
Source: Banque de France, macroeconomic forecasts
A decline to put into perspectiveChange in the number of tourist arrivals in Paris hotelsIn millions
5
• The downward trend at the end of 2018 continued into Q1 2019, with Paris hotel arrivals down 1.5%. However, over two years the trend remains
positive, up 6.3% from Q1 2017.
• The uneven results since the beginning of 2019 are due to a decline in the number of foreign visitors. The yellow vest movement has had an impact
on certain nationalities (e.g. the Chinese and Japanese). As the movement gradually slows, visitor numbers could revive in H2 2019.
Few foreign visitors overallHotel arrivals in Paris by nationality in Q1 2019
Change in % from Q1 2018
Source: Paris Tourism Office
3.75
3.81
3.53
1.8
1.73
1.74
1.95
2.08
1.79
Q1 2019
Q1 2018
Q1 2017
Total French Foreign
UNITED KINGDOM
234,630 visitors
+1.5% ▲
Source: Paris Tourism Office
TOTAL
INTERNATIONAL
VISITORS
1,945,852 visitors
-6.3% ▼
UNITED STATES
301,819 visitors
+0.6% ▲
ITALY
134,686 visitors
+4.8% ▲
GERMANY
134,538 visitors
-1.6% ▼
CHINA
80,556 visitors
-9.8% ▼
FRANCE
1,802,411 visitors
+4.1% ▲
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETEconomic and political environment
…
RETAILER STRATEGIES
AND FORMATS
FIRST HALF OF 2019
Growth steadyOnline sales revenueIn France
11.6
15.6
20.0
25.0
31.0
37.7
45.0
51.1
57.5
64.9
72.0
81.7
92.6
24.9
33%
34%
28%
25%
24%
22%
19%
14%
12% 14%
15%
14%
13%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(Q1)
Sales (€ bn) Annual growth (%)
Source: Fevad
• After rising 13% in 2018, online sales increased 12% in France in Q1 2019, to €24.9 billion. The French market should be able to hold this pace
over the months to come, crossing the symbolic threshold of €100 million by the end of 2019.
• Online sales still have significant growth potential. Although they account for less than 10% of retail sales in France, in more mature markets
(e.g. US, Netherlands, UK) they are in the 14–17% range.7
Significant potentialShare of online sales in total retail salesInternational examples
Source: Euromonitor
17.0%
14.7
13.7
13.7
11.0
9.5
8.8
6.7
5.2
4.6
United Kingdom
Denmark
Netherlands
United States
Germany
Sweden
France
Austria
Italy
Spain
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
Indexing and
technology
From hidden costs of online sales…
Delivery and reverse
logistics
Social and
environmental pressure
Tax and regulatory
pressure
While free returns have become standard, they weigh
increasingly on the profitability of online retailers. In the
United States, the cost of returns will total $550 billion in
2020* (+75.2% over four years).
Every second lost for web page loading on a
retail website translates to a 7% decline in
sales.
Amazon was widely criticised for its practice of destroying
defective products (or products returned by customers)
even when the products were still functional. A product
repairability index may be mandatory by 2021*.
On 11 July 2019, France officially adopted the GAFA
tax, which taxes corporations on 3% of sales made in
France (online advertising, sale of data for advertising
purposes, connecting of users via platforms).
8*Bill concerning the fight against waste and the circular economy
*Source: Statista*Source: SEMRush, from analysis of 1,300 retail sites
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
9
…to advantages of a store network
-9.5%The loss of online traffic caused by the
closing of a fashion retail store in a given
market.
Source: ICSC, “How Bricks Impact Clicks”
Emerging brands (i.e. brands less than ten years old) experience a 32%
rise in online traffic for each new physical store opened, compared with
27% for established brands.
Source: ICSC, “How Bricks Impact Clicks”
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
10
Brand 1st year of business Number of single-brand stores*
Jimmy Fairly 2011 32
Balibaris 2010 24
Le Slip Français 2011 14
Lunettes pour tous 2014 13
Faguo 2009 13
Sézane 2013 7
Sensee 2011 5
Bobbies 2010 4
Polette 2011 3
Miliboo 2007 2
Tediber 2015 1
• The phenomenon is not new, but DNVB popularity continues to rise with the expansion of single-brand store networks. Some brands develop
faster than others (e.g. Jimmy Fairly, Balibaris and Le Slip Français).
• DNVB tend to take their own individual approach to retailing. They are distinguished by more direct relations with consumers, by an emphasis on
the quality of customer service, and by a greater overlap between online retail and physical stores.
DNVB [Digital Native Vertical Brands], a fast-growing model
Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers and department stores,
at end-June 2019
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
11
Favoured choices for openingsIn France, out of total store openings of DNVB at end-June 2019*
Other**
2%
Type
High streets
90%
Shopping centres
8%
Other
11%
Location
Paris / Greater Paris region
61%
Regional cities
28%
Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers
and department stores / **Factory outlets, airports, train stations etc.
46%
11%
14%
29%
52%
32%
8%
8%
Fashion Eyewear Beauty/Cosmetics Other
DNVB stores by product categoryIn France, for total store openings of DNVB at end-June 2019*
Out of total
number of
DNVB
Out of total store
openings of
DNVB
Sources: France-dnvb.com, Knight Frank / *Excl. large distribution retailers and department
stores
• DNVB choose to open mainly in high streets. They continue to prefer Paris (Marais, etc.) for their store openings, as well as the most attractive
high streets of dynamic, mid-sized regional cities (Biarritz, Cannes, etc.).
• The number of DNVB stores remains low. The stores serve mainly as a supplement to online activity and to raise the brand’s profile.
Nevertheless, the DNVB physical network is growing along with new investments, rising popularity and the need to increase the number of
contact points with customers.
1
2
3
1
2
3
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
DNVB [Digital Native Vertical Brands], a fast-growing model
12
233 new retailers since 2014Focus on new foreign retailers
Annual change in number of new foreign retailers in France
Data at end-June 2019
Number of stores by retailer
Share in % of total openings of new retailers since 2014 in France
• More than 40 new foreign retailers open in France each year. The contribution of these new foreign retailers is significant: the 233 foreign retailers
which have entered the French market since 2014 (incl. 28 so far in 2019) have opened just over 1,000 stores.
• However, few new retailers develop a meaningful network. The ten largest (in terms of number of stores) account for 57% of the total, incl. 26% for
Basic-Fit alone. In France since 2014, the Dutch retailer has a network of 271 fitness clubs, incl. more than a hundred opened since the beginning of
2018.
Source: Knight Frank
37
40
46
37
45
28
26%
31%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Moyenne 2014-2018
Source: Knight Frank
Others / Top 10Flying Tiger, Sostrene Grene,
Rituals, Nyx, Muy Mucho, etc.
Others / Excl. Top 10Pittarosso, Five Guys, Deichmann,
Old Wild West, Yamamay, etc.
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
13
Fashion, but not only…Focus on new foreign retailers
• Although fashion has accounted for 44% of all new foreign retailers since 2014, the sector totals only 25% of the 1,040 stores opened by new
retailers over the past five years. The clothing sector’s problems may explain this under-representation. For large established brands the current
trend is cost-cutting, with cautious development for the most recent arrivals.
• The French retail market is now underpinned by a wide variety of activities. Among the fastest growing sectors are leisure, restaurants and
interior décor.
Breakdown by product category of new foreign retailers
in France since 2014
Top 3 by product category
Source: Knight Frank
Food/Restaurants
Number of retailers Total number of stores
Fashion
Accessories
Household/Discounters
Sports/Leisure
Fashion
Source: Knight Frank
44%
14%
13%
10%
8%
6%5%
NUMBER OF
NEW RETAILERS
TOTAL NUMBER
OF STORES
25%
7%
8%10%
30%
5%
15%
Fashion Beauty/Health Accessories Food/Restaurants
Sports/Leisure Household/Discounters Other
1
2
3
1
2
3
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
14
Welcome to Paris!Focus on new foreign retailers
Location of first store of foreign retailers in France since 2014
Source: Knight Frank
• 63% of new foreign retailers in France since 2014 chose Paris for their first opening. Three neighbourhoods account for more than half of the first
openings on French high streets: Le Marais, the rue Saint-Honoré / place Vendôme sector, and Saint-Germain-des-Près.
• Although the best locations on high streets are targeted for the high visibility they provide retailers, several new retailers have opted for
shopping centres for their first store in France (Forum des Halles, Les 4 Temps, Cap 3000 etc.).
Types of locations chosen by new foreign retailers for first opening in
France since 2014
High streets Shopping centres
Retail warehousing Other (airports, railway stations, etc.)
Source: Knight Frank
70%
21%
5%4%
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
62%Paris
10%Greater Paris Region
(excl. Paris)
28%Provinces
FASHION/SPORTSWEAR
BESSON
CHAUSSEA
DEICHMANN / SNIPES
INTERSPORT
JD SPORTS
JOTT
KIABI
PRIMARK
PROJECT X
TAKKO
VALEGE
Examples of developing retailersIn France, by activity
Sources: Knight Frank, press and retailers
15
RESTAURANTS
AU BUREAU
BISTRO RÉGENT
BURGER KING
CRÊP’EAT
IT TRATTORIA
LES BURGERS DE PAPA
O’TACOS
PRÊT À MANGER
VAPIANO
STARBUCKS
STEAK ‘N SHAKE
FOOD
ANGE
BIO C BON
BIOCOOP
DAY BY DAY
GRAND FRAIS
LA VIE CLAIRE
LOUISE
MARIE BLACHÈRE
NATURALIA
NATURÉO
THIRIET
OTHER
ACTION
BASIC FIT
CENTRAKOR
FITNESS PARK
IXINA
JIMMY FAIRLY
LUNETTES POUR TOUS
MAXI ZOO
MUY MUCHO
RITUALS
TOM & CO
Retail warehousing Shopping centres High streets
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetailer strategies and formats
THE RENTAL MARKET
HIGH STREETS
FIRST HALF OF 2019
17
• Although it had steadily lost momentum, the yellow vest movement
impacted retail activity in H1 2019, especially on high streets which
require significant security measures (e.g. rue du Faubourg Saint-
Honoré). In addition, the fall in reservations observed at the end of
2018 was felt in Q1 2019, with an annual decline of 6.3% of foreign
tourists in Paris. Nonetheless, visitor numbers remain higher than those
for 2017.
• Robust foreign visitor numbers continue to be vital to the luxury market.
Upscale hotels are still being opened on or near several major Right
Bank high streets (Costes expansion project, high-profile openings of
Cheval Blanc, So Sofitel and Bulgari hotels, etc.). The trend for luxury
retailers remains positive, with more than 40 openings already in
2019, compared with 48 for all of 2018. The place Vendôme / rue de
la Paix / rue Saint-Honoré sector accounts for 55% of all luxury store
openings expected in Paris in 2019, compared with 55% over the past
five years. This high proportion reflects the success of rue Saint-
Honoré and the vitality of the watch–jewellery sector. Graff, Cartier,
Qeelin, Gucci and Van Cleef & Arpels all plan either creations,
expansions or refurbishments. The Golden Triangle is also very
dynamic. Several large development projects are anticipated or have
been announced, such as the new Dior flagship opened at 127 avenue
des Champs-Élysées. The Dior showcase at 30 avenue Montaigne is
slated to reopen with space expanded to nearly 3,000 m².
• The appeal of the Paris market is also reflected by arrivals of new
foreign brands and retailers, which are positioned for the most part in
the mid-to-high range. After 26 new retailers in Paris in 2018, 25
have already been confirmed for 2019 and 2020. Some of the most
significant are Eataly, which opened retail space of 2,400 m² in Le
Marais; Icicle, which will soon open at 35 avenue George V; and Kith,
whose Paris flagship will open in 2020.
• Besides Eataly, highlights of H1 2019 included several high-profile
openings of large and very large spaces, such as Galeries Lafayette on
the Champs-Élysées and IKEA in the Madeleine sector. Despite these
deals, the supply of large spaces has not diminished. On the
contrary, supply is boosted by redevelopment projects (Champs-
Élysées), retailer difficulties and the desire of certain retailers to
optimise their store network.
• Supply is especially abundant on certain high streets (e.g. rue de
Rivoli). However, the upcoming Nouvelle Samaritaine project as well as
the negotiations under way for several large spaces (former H&M,
former Gap, etc.) suggest that a comeback of this backbone of the
Right Bank may be on the horizon.
• The outlook is not as clear for the principal Left Bank high streets,
which depend less on foreign tourism. Despite openings of a few major
projects (Arije on rue de Rennes, Chaumet on boulevard Saint-
Germain, etc.), retailer demand on the Left Bank is not as strong as
on the other side of the Seine. Rental values fall from time to time,
as seen on rue de Rennes.
High-profile openingsThe high-street market in Paris
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris
Examples of recent transactions and openings in ParisSource: Knight Frank
Retailer Address District Area (m²)
GIBERT JOSEPH 123 avenue de France Paris 13th 2,800
LACOSTE 50 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 2,700
DIOR 127 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 2,000
KITH Confidential Paris 8th Confidential
DIOR 261 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 925
SOSTRENE GRENE 8-10 rue de Rivoli Paris 4th 500
DELVAUX 368 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 400
XIAOMI 49 avenue de l’Opéra Paris 2nd 380
BURBERRY 378 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 350
CELINE 4 rue Duphot Paris 1st 350
UNISPORT 4 rue Berger Paris 1st 300
DUBAIL* 71 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 270
BALIBARIS 65 rue de Passy Paris 16th 210
WEEKDAY 8 rue de Marseille Paris 10th 200
18*Extension
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris
Downward pressure on Paris Left BankPrime rental values, in Paris, in €/sq. m/year Zone A*
Source: Knight Frank
Street or retail area District Rent
as at H1 2018
Rent
as at H2 2019
Trend
Avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th 20,000 20,000 ➔
Avenue Montaigne Paris 8th 15,000 15,000 ➔
Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré Paris 8th 15,000 15,000 ➔
Rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st 12,000 13,000
Boulevard Haussmann Paris 8th / 9th 6,000 6,000 ➔
Marais Paris 3rd / 4th 5,000 5,000 ➔
Sèvres / Saint-Germain Paris 6th / 7th 5,000 4,000
Capucines / Madeleine Paris 1st / 2nd / 8th / 9th 4,000 4,000 ➔
Rue de Rivoli Paris 1st / 4th 4,000 3,500
Rue de Rennes Paris 6th 4,000 3,000
Rue de Passy Paris 16th 3,000 3,000 ➔
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 H
1
Champs-Elysees
Avenue Montaigne
Rue Saint-Honoré
Rue des Francs-Bourgeois
Bd Saint-Germain / Rue de Sèvres
Changes in prime rental values Between 2006 and 2019 (H1), on some
Parisian streets, in €/sq. m/year Zone A*
Source: Knight Frank
19
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris
*Rental value: decapitalised rent + assignment (leasehold/business)
14
A highly concentrated marketExamples of recent and future projects
Source: Knight Frank
Flagships
1 2
3 NIKE 4 ADIDAS
DIORGALERIES LAFAYETTE
5 6
7 GRAFF 8 BALMAIN
SAINT LAURENTLACOSTE
9
VICTORIA’S SECRET
BURBERRYIKEA
EATALY
Railway stations
10
11 12
13
GARE MONTPARNASSE GARE D’AUSTERLITZ
GARE DU NORD
15 16
17
Other
ITALIK (EXT. ITALIE 2) ATELIERS GAITÉ18 19
SAMARITAINE / DFS POSTE DU LOUVRE20 21
MY CARDINET MORLAND MIXITÉ CAPITALE22 23
MK2 CHAMPS-ÉLYSÉES FONDATION PINAULT24 25
FONDATION CARTIER26
23 4
5
26
78
910
11
12
13
17
1516
26
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
1
International
Tourist Zones
ZARA
ETAM / UNDIZ
1
14
2
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Paris
• Although momentum of the yellow vest movement has slowed in recent
months, other problems have appeared in the provinces in 2019. In
mid-sized cities already hurt by economic slowdown, demonstration-
related violence has further weakened retailers because of the cost of
damage and the loss of foot traffic. Clashes have also penalised retail
business in provincial capitals such as Bordeaux, where sales declined
30–60% on demonstration routes, and Nantes, where FNAC and
Galeries Lafayette estimate a total loss of nearly one million customers
since November 2018.
• The scale of the disturbances worsened problems already experienced
by both independent and large retailers, which may accelerate their
cost-cutting operations. In recent months, several significant closings
have been either finalised or announced in the fashion sector in Metz
(Kiabi and New Yorker on rue Serpenoise), Nancy (H&M on rue Saint-
Jean) and Lille, where H&M and Zara closed their stores on rue de
Béthune.
• At the same time, Zara opened a flagship of nearly 4,000 m² on rue de
la Bourse, while H&M continued to expand its network of stores in
secondary cities (e.g. a store opened in June 2019 in the city centre of
Agen).
• Besides the fashion sector, sporting goods (Snipes at 45 rue Saint-
Ferréol in Marseille), health and beauty, and interior décor have created
demand for high streets and shopping centres.
• The boom of food shops and restaurants has also persisted.
Numerous new restaurants have opened or are in the planning stages,
incl. several in Lyon on rue de la République (IT Trattoria, Steak
n’ Shake, Les Burgers de Papa, etc.). The many examples of French
and foreign chains developing in city centres include Big Fernand in
Brest, Five Guys in Nancy and Clermont-Ferrand, Vapiano in Nancy
and Lille, Starbucks in Toulouse, etc.
• The expansion of “emerging” DNVB, already well established in
Paris, also benefits other regions of France, particularly large cities but
also smaller ones with significant tourist activity and high purchasing
power (Jimmy Fairly in Strasbourg and Toulouse, Lunettes pour Tous in
Nice, Balibaris in Aix-en-Provence and Cannes, etc.).
• At the same time, the trend towards smaller or less attractive cities
is as strong as ever. On 19 March 2019, Jacqueline Gourault, Minister
of Territorial Cohesion, announced the cities awarded the “Reinvent Our
City Centres” expression of interest at the second “City Centre
Action” national meeting. The objective is to renovate an iconic city-
centre site, and to encourage innovative urban projects. Of the 112 mid-
sized city candidates, 55 will be helped starting in 2019 to organise calls
for tender, while the 57 others will be aided specifically for their own
projects.
21
Mixed resultsThe high-street market in the provinces
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Provinces
Examples of openings and recent projects in the regions
Sources: Knight Frank, press and retailers
22
Cities in the Top 10
French urban areas
Other cities
LILLEZara & Zara Home / Stella Forest / Vapiano
Anthony Garçon
Le 31
STRASBOURGPrimark / Copper Branch
Faguo / Jimmy Fairly
LYONYaya / Ralph Lauren / Ysé
Made.com / Eric Bompard
King Jouet / Steak ‘n Shake
AIX /
MARSEILLEBalibaris / Snipes
Mad Vintage
42 Saint-Ferréol
NANTESUniqlo / Maxi Bazar
Biloba Plaza
Halles Alstom
RENNESPalais du Commerce
TOULOUSEPrimark / Uniqlo
Tiger / Dr Martens
Jimmy Fairly / Starbucks
BORDEAUXAesop / Bexley
Bordeaux Saint-JeanNICELunettes pour Tous / Boggi
Bolia.com /Copper Branch
Gare du Sud
Iconic
CANNESDolce & Gabbana / Lorena Antoniazzi
Sessun / Balibaris
Le Slip français
NANCYFive Guys
Nespresso / Starbucks
Bistrot Régent
xxx Examples of store openings
xxxExamples of new/redevelopment
projects in city centres
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Provinces
Prime rental valuesIn the regions, end Q2 2019, in €/sq. m/year Zone A*
Source: Knight Frank
23
1,400 / 1,600
1,400 / 1,600
1,700 / 1,900
1,800 / 2,000
1,800 / 2,000
2,200 / 2,400
2,200 / 2,400
2,200 / 2,500
Nantes
Marseille
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Lille
Nice
Bordeaux
Lyon
€ 0 € 500 € 1,000 € 1,500 € 2,000 € 2,500 € 3,000
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETHigh streets | Provinces
*Rental value: decapitalised rent + assignment (leasehold/business)
FOCUS ON THE
PARIS LUXURY MARKET
FIRST HALF OF 2019
6%
7%
14%
10%
8%
7%
17%
17%
30%
12%
11%
18%
AccelerationSales worldwide of luxury goods
25
Sources: Bain & Company / Altagamma
• After slowing slightly in 2018, luxury sales should accelerate in 2019, rising between 4% and 8% for the year. Recent results of large luxury
groups confirm this vitality. Another major factor is Chinese consumers, which could account for nearly half of the global market by 2025, compared
with one-third currently.
• Excluding Asia, results are inconsistent and depend on the geographic area. In Europe, sales remain positive, boosted by growth in international
tourism. However, changes in the political and social environment will continue to be a key factor (Brexit, yellow jacket movement, etc.).
Asia driving growthAnnual growth in sales in Q1 2019 (%)
Sources: Hermès, LVMH, Kering / *USA for LVMH
TotalAmericas*
Asia (excl. Japan)Europe
150
161
159
147
167
186
207
212
219
245
244
254
260
271-2
76
8%
7%
-1%
-8%
14%
11%
11%
2% 3%
12%
0%
4%
2%
4-6
%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f
Sales (€ bn) Annual growth (%)
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market
Luxury goes omnichannelGlobal luxury market by sales format
26
Source: Bain & Company
• Boosted by growth in the Asian market and by the consumer appetite of younger generations, online sales accounted for nearly 10% of total luxury
sales worldwide in 2018 (+22% year on year). This share could total as much as 25% in 2025.
• Although large luxury groups have increased their investments in online sales, they are not neglecting other sales channels. More mature brands
tend to handle directly-operated stores, which allows them to control their image and the buying experience of customers.
Source: Kering, Capital Markets Day 2019
There are plenty of touch points,
so we adapt tools and processes to
maintain consistency in marketing,
but also to inject personalization
and emotions into each contact
point, physical or digital.
Jean-François Palus, Group Managing Director, Kering
25%
29%
17%
22%
13%
20%
13%
12%
7%
6%
25%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2025f
2018
Single-brand stores Specialised stores Department stores Outlets Airport stores Online sales
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market
The same bases as in 2018
• Over forty luxury stores are slated to open in Paris in 2019. Some have already been completed, such as Saint Laurent, Céline and Graff in the
rue Saint-Honoré sector.
• Work on existing sites remains a significant concern. Extensions and refurbishments account for the largest share of openings (30% in 2019,
compared with 17% on average between 2014 and 2018), reflecting the desire of large groups for bigger, more beautiful spaces. Major
development projects over the next two years include the 425 m² extension of the Cartier store at 11 rue de la Paix, and the 1900 m² extension of
the Dior flagship at 30 avenue Montaigne. 27
Change in the number of luxury store openings
In Paris
Source: Knight Frank / *Data at end-June 2019
Openings by type
Share in % of total openings in Paris
Source: Knight Frank
Average 2014-2018
2016
2017
2018
2019*
40
26
40
51
4848% 48%
17%
30%
16%
10%
19%12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Average 2014-2018 2019
Creation Extension / Refurbishment Relocation Temporary store
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market
28
Examples of recent / upcoming openings
# Retailer Address District
1 Arije 41 rue de Rennes Paris 6th
2 Balmain 374 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st
3 Buccellati 239 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st
4 Cartier* 11 rue de la Paix Paris 2nd
5 Céline 4 rue Duphot Paris 1st
6 Chaumet 165 boulevard Saint-Germain Paris 6th
7 Delvaux 368 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st
8 Dior* 30 avenue Montaigne Paris 8th
9 Dior 127 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th
10 Dubail* 71 avenue des Champs-Élysées Paris 8th
11 Graff 237 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st
12 Gucci 16 place Vendôme Paris 1st
13 Qeelin 26 place Vendôme Paris 1st
14 Saint Laurent 213 rue Saint-Honoré Paris 1st
15 Van Cleef & Arpels* 20 place Vendôme Paris 1st
1
6
1213
15
45
27
11 14
10
8
9
3
*Extension / Source: Knight Frank
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market
The year of watches–jewellery
• Of the openings planned for Paris in 2019, the dominant sector will be watches–jewellery. Unsurprisingly these are concentrated around the
Vendôme / Saint-Honoré district (Graff, Buccellati, Gucci, etc.). A few significant projects are also planned for other neighbourhoods in Paris
(Chaumet and Arije on the Left Bank, the Dubail extension on the Champs-Élysées, etc.).
• LVMH Group remains the most active player in the Paris luxury market, with nine openings in 2019 (Dior on the Champs-Élysées, Céline on
rue Duphot, etc.). LVMH is ahead of Richemont, whose transactions (whether recent or to come) concern mainly refurbishment and
extension projects for Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels in the place Vendôme / rue de la Paix sector. 29
Openings by product category*
Top 3 of luxury store openings in Paris
Source: Knight Frank / *Top three categories
Openings by group
Luxury stores in Paris, in 2019
Source: Knight Frank
1
2
3
Cosmetics
2014-2018
7%
Watches-Jewellery
Fashion
Cosmetics
2019
50%
38%
8%
Fashion
45%
Watches-Jewellery
31%
23%
8%
13%
8%
48%
LVMH
Kering
Richemont
Chanel
Other
1
2
3
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market
Saint-Honoré / Paix / Vendôme: 55% of openings!
• The sector comprising rue Saint-Honoré, place Vendôme and rue de la Paix accounts for 55% of all luxury store openings in Paris in 2019
(compared with 32% between 2014 and 2018). A few high-profile openings have been completed or are planned in the Golden Triangle (e.g. Dior at
127 avenue des Champs-Élysées).
• The trend of focusing large luxury groups on the Right Bank’s most prestigious high streets explains the limited number of openings on other high
streets. Occasionally there are a few high-profile projects and openings, including a very small number of creations (Arige at 41 rue de Rennes,
etc.). 30
Breakdown of openings by high street
Share in % of total openings in Paris
Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank
Graff
Saint Laurent
Buccellati
Delvaux
Louboutin
Balmain,
etc.
20192011
Chanel
Pucci
Marni
Pomellato
Billionaire
Moschino,
etc.
Dior
Vuitton
Stella
McCartney
David Morris
Christofle,
etc.
Dior Parfums
Fendi
Paul Smith
Marc Jacobs
Brioni,
Lyubov,
etc.
Mulberry
Tory Burch
Missoni
La Prairie
Alexander
McQueen,
etc.
2018201720162015
Grand
opening of
Mandarin
Oriental
Rue Saint-Honoré:53 openings since 2015, of which 45% are creations
21%
11%
9%
10%
5%
8%
11%
7%
18%
30%
25%
10%
8%
8%
8%
5%
2%
4%
Rue Saint-Honoré
Vendôme / Paix
George V / François 1er
Faubourg Saint-Honoré
Champs-Elysées
Sèvres / Saint-Germain
Montaigne
Marais
Other
2019 2014-2018
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market
Luxury hotels in ParisRecent and future openings
31
Source: Knight Frank
Recent openings
1Hôtel Fauchon
Paris 8th
Creation: 2018
4Lutétia
Paris 6th
Refurbishment: 2018
2Hôtel de Berri
Paris 8th
Creation: 2018
Future openings
7Hôtel du Génie / Autograph Collection
Paris 7th
Creation: 2019
8Cheval Blanc Samaritaine
Paris 1st
Creation: 2020
3La Clef Champs-Élysées
Paris 8th
Creation: 2018
Kimpton Paris Opéra
Paris 2nd
Creation: 2020
9Bulgari Paris
Paris 8th
Creation: 2020
10So Sofitel Champs-Élysées
Paris 8th
Création: 2022
Maison Albar Opéra
Paris 9th
Creation: 2019
Grand Powers
Paris 8th
Refurbishment: 2019
5
Creation
Refurbishment / Extension
JK Place
Paris 7th
Creation: 2019
6Hôtel du Louvre
Paris 1st
Refurbishment: 2019
Sinner / Evok
Paris 4th
Creation: 2019
Goralska
Paris 1st
Creation: 2020
Poste du Louvre
Paris 1st
Creation: 2020
1
2
4
17
5
7
3
8
9
10
Costes
Paris 1st
Extension: 201917
6
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFocus on the Paris luxury market
THE RENTAL MARKET
RETAIL COMPLEXES
FIRST HALF OF 2019
• Although visitor numbers are slightly higher than last year’s (+1.9%
in Q2 2019*), performances of shopping centres vary widely, depending
on the format. Shopping malls have been weakened. Their results are
driven by hypermarkets, which themselves have been hurt by a decline
in foot traffic. Moreover, the most recent Procos study confirms the
problems of city-centre shopping centres, which were penalised by
the yellow vest movement and by the loss of some of their customers to
peripheral shopping zones.
• Vacancy rates are in acceptable ranges in the largest shopping centres,
and property-investment firms show solid results. These centres are
preferred by international retailers, both for their high flow of customers
and the visibility the centres provide. Sporting goods and fast-fashion
companies continue to open large stores in these centres, but other
sectors are also active in all types of spaces (Lego, Nespresso, Five
Guys, etc.). In addition, the largest centres capture the demand of new
foreign retailers, such as Victoria’s Secret in Forum des Halles, the
announcement by Xiaomi of its first opening in the provinces (at La Part-
Dieu), and the upcoming arrival of Normal at Passage du Havre and
Belle-Epine.
• Outside the prime segment, certain retailers are taking advantage of
beneficial leasing terms to expand their network. Two Dutch retailers
are especially active. Basic-Fit has replaced La Grande Récré in Les
Halles du Beffroi in Amiens, and plans to open in Eléis in Cherbourg.
Action has opened in Argenteuil (Côté Seine) and Toulon (Centre
Mayol), and plans to open in Metz (Saint-Jacques).
• The ecological crisis, weakening purchasing power, an aging
population, the digital revolution: these factors and more are affecting
demand and changing the shopping centre market. The recent
change in tenant mix illustrates how societal concerns have already
been taken into account by landlords and retailers, as seen in the
development of higher quality restaurants, concept stores for health and
well-being, leisure activities etc. New hybrid and collaborative models
are also being tested to replace formats which have fallen out of favour.
Examples include shop-in-shops at Casino hypermarkets (e.g.
Cdiscount and Le Drugstore Parisien or external partners such as Maty,
etc.).
• Modification of shopping centres also requires architectural work on
existing centres. Extension, refurbishment and redevelopment will
be the key words from the second half of 2019 to the end of 2021, with
development projects such as La Part-Dieu in Lyon, Italik and Les
Ateliers Gaité in Paris, Les Trois Fontaines in Cergy and Polygone in
Montpellier.
• Projects designed to revive flagging assets are also rising, along with
market opportunities. This trend is illustrated by several notable success
stories, such as the project to revive the Domus shopping centre in
Rosny-sous-Bois. Other repositioning deals are under way, whose
effects will be measurable in the months to come. Examples are the Jeu
de Paume in Beauvais, acquired by Foncière Immobilière Bordelaise in
2018, and the Galerie des Tanneurs in Lille, acquired the same year by
a Lyon-based investor.
Cards redistributedThe French shopping centre market
33*Source: CNCC
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETShopping centres
34
Centre Town Type Area (m²)
Lillenium Lille (59) Creation 56,300
Open Sky Plaisir (78) Creation 37,000
Cap 3000 Saint-Laurent-du-Var (06) Extension / Redevelopment 32,500
La Part-Dieu Lyon (69) Extension / Redevelopment 30,600
Les Ateliers Gaité Paris (75014) Extension / Redevelopment 27,800
Vélizy 2 Vélizy-Villacoublay (78) Extension / Redevelopment 19,600
Nice Lingostière Nice (06) Extension / Redevelopment 12,000
Créteil Soleil Créteil (94) Extension / Redevelopment 11,600
Saint-Sever Rouen (76) Extension / Redevelopment 7,000
Les Berges de l’Ourcq Les Pavillons-sous-Bois (93) Creation 6,800
Italik (Italie 2) Paris (75013) Extension / Redevelopment 6,400
Rennes-Cesson Cesson-Sévigné (35) Extension / Redevelopment 6,000
Examples of significant shopping centre projects 2019-2020
Source: Knight Frank
Cap 3000, Saint-Laurent-du-Var (06)
Les Ateliers Gaité, Paris 14th
Italik, Paris 13th
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETShopping centres
Some good, some not so good…The French retail warehousing market
35
• The year 2018 ended on a negative note because of the yellow vest
movement and retail losses. Although tensions had subsided, new
actions to block retail zones were carried out in the first half.
Moreover, last year’s results were tarnished by poor performances of
some of the most prevalent activities on the outskirts, i.e. garden-supply
and pet stores (sales down 1.5% in 2018) and furniture stores (–2.7%).
The furniture sector has since bounced back, rising 4.8% in the first five
months of 2019.
• While the market seems to be better overall, this improvement should
be taken with a grain of salt. Difficulties increased for several large
retailers in peripheral zones (e.g. Vivarte Group, which is now unable
to reimburse debt). In recent months Chantemur was liquidated, while
Kingfisher Group closed several Castorama and Brico Dépôt stores
across France. In addition, Conforama announced a drastic
restructuring plan involving the closing of more than 40 Conforama
and Maison Dépôt stores.
• These challenges are in stark contrast with the ongoing expansion of
large discount retailers such as Action. Other include Stokomani, which
recently opened its hundredth store in France, and Centrakor, which
now has more than 400 stores and has begun to expand internationally.
Gifi is also opening stores, mainly through the integration of Tati stores
acquired in 2017.
• In other sectors, groups are using synergies between retailers to
lower costs, adapt to new consumer habits and boost growth.
Beaumanoir Group is using this type of combined development to open
its Vibs multi-stores, while Fnac/Darty is growing across France
through dynamic use of local franchises.
• Other business segments continue to grow, such as sporting goods
(sportswear, fitness), restaurants and food shops. For example, organic
food is growing rapidly, underpinned by the expansion of existing
retailers in peripheral zones and by the testing of formats outside city
centres in order to target new customers (Naturalia in Brétigny-sur-
Orge).
• While the growth potential of new retail parks remains strong, there
were few completions in H1 2019 (Saint-Berthevin, near Laval, etc.).
A few large projects are expected by the end of the year, such as
the Shopping Promenade d’Arles and Eden 2 in Servon (Seine-et-
Marne).
• Just as for shopping centres, though to a lesser degree, the emphasis
is increasingly on the redevelopment of existing retail zones, as
seen in projects carried out by Frey in Strasbourg and Toulouse. A sign
of the times, a second working group has met as part of the call for
projects in the “Rethinking Retail in Peripheral Zones” launched in
December 2017 by the Ministry of Territorial Cohesion. The goal is to
“enhance the awareness, methods and operational tools for the
modernisation of retail zones in the inner suburbs”.
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetail parks
36
Centre Town Type Area (m²)
Steel Saint-Étienne (42) Creation 70,000
Coeur d’Alsace Shopping Promenade Vendenheim (67) Redevelopment 70,000
Puisoz Vénissieux (69) Creation 50,000
Les Promenades de Brétigny Brétigny-sur-Orge (91) Creation 50,000
Woodshop Cesson (77) Redevelopment 42,000
Open Sky Buchelay (78) Redevelopment 40,000
Shopping Promenade Claye-Souilly (77) Creation 40,000
Eden (phase 2) Servon (77) Creation 33,000
Shopping Promenade Arles (13) Creation 19,000
Les Montagnes Ouest (phase 2) Champniers (16) Extension 13,500
Pop’A Lescure Lescure d’Albigeois (81) Creation 12,250
The Snow Sallanches (74) Creation 12,000
Pop’A Autun Autun (71) Creation 11,700
La Colleraye Savenay (44) Extension 9,000
Steel, Saint-Etienne (42)
Shopping Promenade Arles, Arles (13)
The Snow, Sallanches (74)
Examples of significant retail park projects 2019-2020
Source: Knight Frank
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETRetail parks
More than 100,000 m² since 2017The French factory outlet market
• Several large projects have been opened over the
past three years. In 2017 there was Miramas’
McArthurGlen (25,000 m²) and the Honfleur
Normandy Outlet (12,700 m²). Highlights of 2018
included the opening of The Village (25,000 m²),
developed by Compagnie de Phalsbourg in
Villefontaine, not far from Lyon. The Village had
nearly four million visitors in its first year. Now it is
the turn of Île-de-France to make headlines in 2019,
with the impending opening of Paddock Paris
(21,000 m²) in Romainville. The new facility,
developed by Fiminco (Adidas, Reebok,
Etam/Undiz, Delsey, etc.), features a food hall of
800 m² and 75 stores. Galeries Lafayette will open
1,200 m² there, the latest addition to their outlet
network after openings in Saint-Denis, Vélizy-
Villacoublay and Villefontaine (The Village).
• Factory outlets continue to sprout up across the
Paris region, with several large sites in the northern
suburbs (Marques Avenue in Île-Saint-Denis), the
southern suburbs (–X% in Massy, Marques Avenue
in Corbeil-Essonnes), the western suburbs (Marques
Avenue A13, One Nation Paris, etc.) and the eastern
suburbs (La Vallée Village in Marne-la-Vallée).
• In all, factory outlets opened in France between
the beginning of 2017 and the end of 2019
totalled nearly 100,000 m², with an existing
supply of more than 500,000 m² mainly in
northern France.
• Numerous projects are planned for 2020 and
beyond, such as 20,000 m² developed by Neinver in
Châtillon-en-Michaille, near the Swiss border (Alpes
The Style Outlets), and 18,000 m² for McArthurGlen
in Douains, near Evreux, for which construction was
recently begun. Both will be opened in 2021.
• The format’s popularity, the need for retailers to
clear their stock, and the growth potential of certain
regions still relatively undeveloped leave little doubt
that there are more deals in the pipeline. Yet
uncertainties persist. In addition to the need to
reach a certain level of pre-lettings, legal recourse is
increasingly frequent as supply grows. After the
factory outlet in Sorigny (Indre-et-Loire) at the end of
2018, authorisation for the Village Outlet in Coutras,
outside Bordeaux, was also refused in May 2019,
with an unfavourable decision by the CNAC.
37
Change in openings in France
In m², total volume per year*
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: Knight Frank
*Definite and possible operations
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFactory outlets
Source: Knight Frank
Examples of significant factory outlet openings and projects
Year Centre Town Type Area (m²)
2011 Nailloux Outlet Village Nailloux (31) Creation 24,800
2012 The Style Outlets Roppenheim (67) Creation 27,300
2013 One Nation Paris Les-Clayes-sous-Bois (78) Creation 24,000
2015 Marques Avenue A13 Aubergenville (78) Redevelopment 13,700
2017 Honfleur Normandy Outlet Honfleur Creation 12,700
2017 McArthurGlen Provence Miramas Creation 25,000
2018 The Village Villefontaine (38) Creation 25,000
Year Centre Town Type Area (m²)
2019 Viaduc Village (Phase 1) La Cavalerie (12) Creation 7,500
2019 Paddock Romainville (93) Creation 20,000
2021 Alpes The Style Outlets Châtillon-en-Michaille (01) Creation 19,000
2021 McArthurGlen Douains (27) Creation 18,000
2021 Designer Outlet l’Escale Hautmont (59) Creation 10,500
> 2021 Village de marques Coutras (33) Creation 19,20038
Openings 2011-2018
Future projects
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFactory outlets
T H E I N V E S T M E N T
M A R K E T
FIRST HALF OF 2019
40
H1 2019 H1 2018 Annual trend
Retail investment volume in France €1.3 bn €1.6 bn
Share of retail* 11% 13%
Number of transactions > €100 million 1 4
Share of Ile-de-France** 32% 55%
Share of foreign investors** 45% 56%
Prime yield | High streets 2.90% 2.75%
Prime yield | Shopping centres 4.25% 4.25% ➔
Prime yield | Retail parks 5.00% 5.00% ➔
Source: Knight Frank
*On total investment in France,all asset types (excl. non divisible portfolios)
** On total retail investment in France
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market
• Running counter to the office trend, amounts invested in the French retail market decreased by 24% between the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2019, from
725 to 550 million euros.
• Since January, the retail sector saw investment volumes of €1.3 billion, a 21% decrease compared to the first half of 2018, which benefited
from the sale to BVK of the new Apple Store on the Champs-Elysées for almost €600 million.
A sluggish first halfChange in retail investment volumes In France
Source: Knight Frank
41
€ 4,700
€ 1,275
16%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
€ 0
€ 1,000
€ 2,000
€ 3,000
€ 4,000
€ 5,000
€ 6,000
€ 7,000
€ 8,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H12019
Retail investment volume France Retail share (%)
-21%Year on year
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market
Significant transactions in 2019
Source: Knight Frank
Address / Asset Type City Seller Purchaser Price
Casino portfolio SC France Casino Fortress Investment Group
Portfolio RW / SC / HS France Meyer Bergman Paref
Portfolio RW France - Valimmo
C&A | Tour CIT Montparnasse SC Paris 15th Redevco NRS Invest
Canyon portfolio SC/ RW France Ceetrus Othrys AM
6 rue de Sèvres HS Paris 6th Société Générale Thor Equities
Portfolio RW Aisne - Patrimoine & Commerce
Cora Creil Saint-Maximin SC Saint-Maximin (60) Klepierre Galimmo
Chamblyrama RW Chambly (60) - Altixia Reim
Éclats portfolio RW Greater Paris region LIM Groupe Duval
Portfolio HS Greater Paris region Financière JL Groupama Gan Reim
Atlas portfolio HS Paris Louvre Capital AEW Ciloger
NB: HS High street, RW Retail warehousing, SC Shopping centre< €50M €50-100M €100-200M > €200M 42
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market
Gradual rebalancingBreakdown of retail investment volume by geography
Source: Knight Frank
• After having largely dominated activity in the first quarter (90% of the amounts committed in France), the share of regions is lower at the end of
the first half of 2019 but remains very high (67%).
• After a sluggish start to the year, Paris saw its share increase to 25% of amounts invested in retail (after 6% in the first quarter) with a few
transactions such as Redevco's sale of the C&A store in Montparnasse and Thor Equities' acquisition of 6 rue de Sèvres for nearly €50 million.
48%
7%
42%
3% 25%
7%
67%
1%
Paris
Greater Paris region - Excl. Paris
Provinces
Indivisible portfolios
H1 2019
H1 2018
Significant deals in 2019
Province Paris / IDF
Casin
o
port
folio
6 ru
e d
e S
èvre
sC
&A
Montp
arn
asse
43
20 P
aris
ian
assets
portfo
lio
27 r
eta
ilassets
port
folio
Source: Knight Frank
Reta
ilw
are
housin
g
port
folio
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market
• Shopping centres and galleries still account for the majority of retail investment volumes (45% in H1 2019) due to the sale by Casino to
Fortress of a portfolio of 26 hypermarket and supermarket properties for almost 400 million euros. However, this market segment remained virtually
flat in the second quarter, while high street and retail park assets saw a slight increase in activity.
• Nevertheless, for the retail park market, mid-year results are mixed, with volumes down 19% year-on-year. In the high street sector, a few portfolio
sales and rare acquisitions of prime Parisian assets made it possible to offset some of the slowdown of the first quarter.
High streets regain groundBreakdown of retail investment volume by asset typeIn France
Source: Knight Frank
38%
60%
32%
26%
29%
23%
36%
11%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2019
High streets Retail warehousing Shopping centres
44
45%Share of shopping centres
in the first half of 2019
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market
Nevertheless, for the retail park market, mid-year results are mixed.
French take the leadBreakdown of retail investment volume by nationalityFrance, in H1 2019
Source: Knight Frank
• While Americans accounted for the majority of retail investment in Q1, French investors were the most active over the first half of the year.
The latter account for 53% of the amounts committed on the retail market and are behind some of the largest deals of Q2, such as the acquisition
by Paref of a portfolio of 27 assets in the provinces for €94 million.
• Investment funds have accounted for the majority of sums invested on the French retail market (46%) since the beginning of 2019, ahead of
private investors and property-investment firms.
Funds still in the top spotBreakdown of retail investment volume by investor type
France, in H1 2019
Source: Knight Frank
55%
2%2%
40%
1%
France
€ zone
Europe (outside € zone)
North America
Other
46%
18%
16%
17%
3%
Funds
Property investmentcompanies
SCPI / OPCI
Private investors
Other
45
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market
46
StabilisationPrime retail yields In France, as a %
Source: Knight Frank
2.90
4.25
5.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Q2
201
9
High streets Regional shopping centres Retail parks
2009-2018
Change
Shopping
Centres
-23%
High
streets
-39%
Retail
parks
-31%
• Prime yields for Parisian retail streets, shopping centres and retail parks have not changed since the beginning of the year, and stand at 2.90%,
4.25% and 5.00% respectively.
• However, it should be noted that there are very few transaction references for prime assets.
THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETThe investment market
Contacts
Antoine GrignonPartner | Head of Retail Capital
Markets & Leasing
+33 (0)1 43 16 88 70
+33 (0)6 73 86 11 02
David BourlaPartner | Chief Economist &
Head of Research
+33 (0)1 43 16 55 75
+33 (0)7 84 07 94 96
Vianney d’ErsuPartner | Retail Leasing
+33 (0)1 43 16 56 04
+33 (0)6 75 26 03 96
Antoine SalmonPartner | Head of Retail Leasing
+33 (0)1 43 16 88 64
+33 (0)6 09 17 81 76
47