first... let’s look back to our forecasts for 2004
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts for 2004](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649ec75503460f94bd42d7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts for 2004](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649ec75503460f94bd42d7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts
for
2004
First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts
for
2004
![Page 3: First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts for 2004](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649ec75503460f94bd42d7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Forecast 2004 (9/4/03)Forecast 2004 (9/4/03)
(% Change)
Local Spot + 7.0 to + 8.0Nat’l Spot +14.0to +15.0 Total Spot +10.0to +11.0Network + 7.0 to + 8.0Syndication + 5.0 to + 6.0Cable + 8.0 to + 9.0
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First half +8.6% Political push just starting Reconfirm original forecast at +11.0%
Are We on Target for 2004?Are We on Target for 2004?
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Political Olympics
Local BroadcastA 2-Year Business Cycle
Local BroadcastA 2-Year Business Cycle
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Impact on Local Broadcast TV Ad
Spending
Impact on Local Broadcast TV Ad
Spending
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1995
+3.5
1996
+8.6
1997
+3.3
1998
+6.5
1999
+1.5
2000
+11.3
2001
-16.8
2002
+11.9
2003
-2.4
2004*
+11.0
Over Last 12 Mos. Over Last 24 Mos.
Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys
Local BroadcastA 2-year Business Cycle
Local BroadcastA 2-year Business Cycle
% Change Total Spot
* TVB Estimate.
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142.7
114.9
127.6
141.2
131.2
100
120
140
160
'95-'96 ’97-’98 ’99-’00 ’01-’02 '03-'04
%
Index of the Growth of Spot TVIndex of the Growth of Spot TV
In 24 Month Cycles(’93-’94 = 100)
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Now The Year AheadNow The Year Ahead
What Can We Expect?
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Here’s What the Financial Broadcast
Analysts Are Saying About 2005
Here’s What the Financial Broadcast
Analysts Are Saying About 2005
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16 Financial Firms Participated
16 Financial Firms Participated
Bear StearnsCIBC World MarketsDeutsche BankFulcrum Global PartnersGabelli & Co.Harris NesbittJPMorgan ChaseLegg Mason
Merrill LynchMorgan StanleyPrudential Equity GroupSanford C. Bernstein & Co.SG Cowen Securities Corp.Thomas Weisel PartnersVogel CapitalWachovia Securities
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Local Spot + 1.8 + 2.0 Nat’l Spot - 2.9 - 3.0 Network + 2.1 + 3.0Syndication + 6.2 + 5.0Network Cable+ 10.6 + 10.3Spot Cable + 10.1 + 11.0
Summary of the 2005Financial Forecasts
Summary of the 2005Financial Forecasts
MeanMedian
(2005 % Change)
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Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Local Spot
Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Local Spot
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Local Spot Ranges
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Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Nat’l Spot
Wall Street Estimates 2005 – Nat’l Spot
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
National Spot Ranges
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Local Spot + 1.8 + 4.6 Nat’l Spot - 2.9 + 8.3 Network + 2.1 + 4.5Syndication + 6.2 + 6.0Network Cable+ 10.6 + 9.8Spot Cable + 10.1 + 10.0
Summary of theFinancial Forecasts
Summary of theFinancial Forecasts
2005 2006(% Change)
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Bear StearnsBear Stearns
Local Spot +3.0 Nat’l Spot - 7.5 to - 8.5 Network +5.0 to + 6.0 Syndication +5.0Network Cable +8.0 to +10.0Nat’l Spot Cable +12.0Local Cable +5.0
2005(% Change)
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CIBC World MarketsCIBC World Markets
Local Spot + 3.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot + 3.0 + 6.0Network + 4.0 + 4.0Syndication + 5.0 + 5.0Network Cable + 8.0 + 8.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 4.0 + 6.0Local Cable + 4.0 + 6.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank
Local Spot + 0.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 9.0Network -1.0 +0.0Syndication + 10.0 + 8.0Network Cable+ 12.0 + 9.0Nat’l Spot Cable+13.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 15.0 + 13.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Fulcrum Global PartnersFulcrum Global Partners
Local Spot + 3.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 10.0 + 7.0Network - 5.0 + 6.0Syndication + 2.0 + 5.0Network Cable+ 12.5 + 10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 12.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 12.0 + 10.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Gabelli & CompanyGabelli & Company
Local Spot -0.5 +3.25Nat’l Spot +2.5 +4.25Network +1.25 +3.0Syndication +10.0 +7.0Network Cable +15.0 +10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+10.0 +6.0Local Cable +4.0 +4.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Harris NesbittHarris Nesbitt
Local Spot + 2.0 + 4.0Nat’l Spot - 13.0 + 13.0Network + 3.0 + 4.0Syndication + 6.0 + 4.0Network Cable+ 11.0 + 12.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 15.0 + 12.0Local Cable + 11.0 + 12.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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JPMorgan ChaseJPMorgan Chase
Local Spot +3.0 +6.0 Nat’l Spot -6.0 +9.0 Network +4.5 +5.0 Syndication +3.5 +4.5 Network Cable +9.5 +10.0 Nat’l Spot Cable+11.7 +12.0 Local Cable N/A N/A
2005 2006(% Change)
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Legg MasonLegg Mason
Local Spot + 4.0 +6.0 Nat’l Spot +0.0 +7.0Network +3.0 +7.0 Syndication +2.0 +5.0 Network Cable +8.0 +10.0 Nat’l Spot Cable +9.0 +11.0 Local Cable +6.0 +8.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Merrill LynchMerrill Lynch
Local Spot + 2.5 + 1.8Nat’l Spot - 5.2 + 9.1Network + 3.0 + 5.0Syndication + 12.0 + 12.0Network Cable + 15.0-18.0+ 15.0Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/A Local Cable + 12.0 + 12.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley
Local Spot -0.6 +6.1 Nat’l Spot -0.6 +6.1 Network +2.0 +6.1 Syndication N/A N/A Network Cable +9.0 +7.2 Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/ALocal Cable N/A N/A
2005 2006(% Change)
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Prudential Equity GroupPrudential Equity Group
Local Spot + 5.0 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 15.0Network + 6.0 + 4.0Syndication + 9.0 + 6.0Network Cable+ 12.0 + 10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 9.0Local Cable + 10.0 + 9.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Local Spot +2.0 +4.0 Nat’l Spot -1.0 +11.0 Network +5.2 +4.6 Syndication +6.0 +2.0 Network Cable +16.0 +13.0 Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/A Local Cable +19.0 +17.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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SG Cowen Securities Corp.SG Cowen Securities Corp.
Local Spot + 1.5 + 5.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 15.0Network + 2.0 + 4.0Syndication + 4.0 + 5.0Network Cable + 6.5 + 7.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 15.0 + 12.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Thomas Weisel PartnersThomas Weisel Partners
Local Spot - 3.0 + 8.3Nat’l Spot + 2.4 + 3.4Network - 4.1 + 7.1Syndication + 3.0 + 5.0Network Cable+ 11.1 + 11.1Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 10.0Local Cable + 10.0 + 10.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Vogel CapitalVogel Capital
Local Spot + 2.0 + 0.0Nat’l Spot + 2.0 + 3.0Network + 0.0 + 2.0Syndication + 3.0 + 3.0Network Cable + 6.0 + 4.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 5.0 + 3.0Local Cable + 7.0 + 3.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Wachovia SecuritiesWachovia Securities
Local Spot + 2.0 + 4.0Nat’l Spot - 3.0 + 6.0Network + 5.0 + 6.0Syndication + 12.0 + 12.0Network Cable + 8.0 + 10.0Nat’l Spot Cable+ 10.0 + 12.0Local Cable + 11.0 + 14.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Now What the Other Experts are Predicting
for 2005 & 2006
Now What the Other Experts are Predicting
for 2005 & 2006
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Universal McCannUniversal McCann
Local Spot +3.0 +5.0 Nat’l Spot +1.0 +7.0 Network +2.0 +7.0 Syndication +1.0 +3.0 Network Cable +6.0 +8.0 Nat’l Spot Cable +7.0 +10.0 Local Cable +7.0 +10.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Jack MyersJack Myers
Total Spot + 0.0 + 6.0Network + 2.0 + 2.8Syndication + 3.0 + 4.0Network Cable + 6.2 + 7.0Local/RegionalCable + 12.0 + 18.0
2005 2006(% Change)
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Veronis Suhler StevensonVeronis Suhler Stevenson
Local Spot + 1.4 +5.9 Nat’l Spot +3.2 +6.9 Network +2.2 +7.2 Syndication +2.6 +5.8 Network Cable +9.5 +10.1 Nat’l Spot Cable N/A N/A Local Cable +10.6 +11.3
2005 2006(% Change)
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Veronis Suhler StevensonVeronis Suhler Stevenson
Dimensioning The Spot Market
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Spot TV as % of Total Broadcast TV
Spot TV as % of Total Broadcast TV
2004 26,062 17,076 2,538 45,67657.1%
2005 26,635 17,450 2,604 46,68957.0%
2006 28,325 18,708 2,755 49,78856.9%
2007 29,448 19,045 2,854 51,34757.4%
2008 31,610 20,721 3,088 55,41957.0%
Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson
Total Spot Network Total Spot % Broadcast Broadcast Syndicated Broadcast of Total
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Spot TV as % of Total Local TV Spot TV as % of Total Local TV
2004 26,062 4,685 30,747 84.8%
2005 26,635 5,180 31,815 83.7%
2006 28,325 5,763 34,088 83.1%
2007 29,448 6,347 35,795 82.3%
2008 31,610 7,309 38,919 81.2%
Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson
Total Spot Local Total Spot Broadcast Broadcast Cable Local TV % of Local
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TV Rep Surveyfor 2005-2006TV Rep Surveyfor 2005-2006
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National Spot -2.7 +11.6
20052006
(% Change)
11 Participants
TV Rep SurveyTV Rep Survey
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National Spot -2.7 -1.0
MeanMedian
(% Change)
11 Participants
2005 Rep Survey2005 Rep Survey
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2005 Rep Survey2005 Rep Survey
Mean Median-2.7% -1.0%
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
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Key Categories to Watch - 2005Key Categories to Watch - 2005
Automotive Telecommunications Pharmaceutical Financial Services/Credit Cards Issue
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Oil Prices Employment/Unemployment Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Home Construction & Sales The 2004 Election Broadcast-Cable Competition
Market Drivers 2005Market Drivers 2005
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Satellite Grabs Subs Price Wars Cable Modems Challenged Phone Company Packaging Capital Spending/Depreciation
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
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Network CPM Gap Local Cable Challenges: Inventory, Value Fragmentation Sarbanes-Oxley/Accountability A la carte... The Nightmare Scenario
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
Cable TV Storm Clouds Gathering...
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The power of televisionGeo-TargetingAddressability by programBroad[cast] reachDominant ratingsSuperior cost-efficiencyAccountabilityElectronic processing
…Value for the Customer
Spot Broadcast DeliversSpot Broadcast Delivers
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And Now TVB’s Forecast for 2005 & 2006
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Local Spot + 2 to + 4Nat’l Spot - 4 to -2 Total Spot - 1 to + 1
Network + 2 to + 3Syndication + 5 to + 6Network Cable + 8 to + 9Local Cable + 7 to + 9
TVB Forecast 2005TVB Forecast 2005
(% Change)
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(% Change)
TVB Forecast 2006TVB Forecast 2006
Local Spot + 4 to + 6Nat’l Spot +10 to +14 Total Spot + 7 to + 9
Network + 4 to + 5Syndication + 5 to + 6Network Cable + 9 to +10Local Cable + 6 to + 8
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Base Business ComparisonBase Business Comparison
2003 + 0.9 - 2.42004 E. + 5.6 +11.02005 E. + 5.5 Flat
Base Total(Base + Political)
(% Change)
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Let’s Revisit Two Slidesand Insert the
2005 - 2006 Forecasts
Let’s Revisit Two Slidesand Insert the
2005 - 2006 Forecasts
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1997
+3.3
1998
+6.5
1999
+1.5
2000
+11.3
2001
-16.8
2002
+11.9
2003
-2.4
2004*
+11.0
2005* Flat
2006*
+8.0
Over Last 12 Mos. Over Last 24 Mos.
Total Spot TV Total Spot TV
% Change
* TVB Estimate. Source: Universal McCann/TVB Station Time Sales Surveys
* TVB Estimate.
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142.7
156.7
131.2
141.2
127.6
114.9
100
120
140
160
'95-'96 ’97-’98 ’99-’00 ’01-’02 '03-'04 '05-'06
%
Index of the Growth of Spot TVIndex of the Growth of Spot TV
In 24 Month Cycles(‘93-’94 = 100)
![Page 55: First... Let’s look back to our Forecasts for 2004](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081519/56649ec75503460f94bd42d7/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Thank You for Joining Us Today.
Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations.
Thank You for Joining Us Today.
Go to www.tvb.orgfor presentations.