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First Results of COPS

Prof. Dr. Volker WulfmeyerInstitute of Physics and Meteorologyy gy

University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany,the COPS ISSC, and the D-PHASE SC

COPS designFirst highlightsg gCOPS/D-PHASE researchin MWF

March 17, 2008 2nd Meeting of the WWRP WG MWF, Tokio, Japan

European Coordinated Experiments 2007Domain of the Convective andOrographically-inducedPrecipitation Study (COPSCOPS)), World Weather Research

General Observations Period (GOPGOP)

Program (WWRP) Research andDevelopment Project (RDP)Period: 1. 6. – 31. 8.2007

Transport and Chemical Conversion in Convective

General Observations Period (GOPGOP) Period: full year of 2007

Systems (COPSCOPS--TRACKSTRACKS)Period: 16.7. – 2.8.2007

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program

Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and

Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMFAMF)Period: 1. 4. – 31. 12.2007

EUMETSAT EUMETSAT special satelliteoperation modes and dataPeriod: 1. 6. – 31. 8.2007

y gAtmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region (DD--PHASEPHASE), WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP)Period: 1. 6. – 30. 11.2007

European THORPEX Regional Campaign 2007 (ETReCETReC 20072007)Period: 1.7. – 1.8.2007


COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study)

Goal: Advance the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation by 4D observations and modeling of its life cycle

Region: Southwestern Germany, eastern France

Date: 1 June 31 August 2007 COPS „Natural convection laboratory“Area (270 x 150 km2)

Date: 1 June – 31 August 2007Features: Severe thunderstorm

activity but low QPF skillInformation: www.uni-hohenheim.de/cops/

ARM Mobile FacilityMobile

teams

Large-scale and mesoscale observations provided by dedicated aircraft

5. Hochwasserschutzforum, IHK Rhein‐Neckar, Mannheim

Supersite

WMO/TD – No. 1361, 2007; WMO CAS Report, No. 1002, 2006; Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS, 2008, in print.

Supersite

Radars +

R H SP LINET

DOW

V MGPS (D/F)

V120 km rangeFZ Karlsruhe20 km range

X BandX-Band

Mobile

Further details are found in: COPS Field Report at www.uni-hohenheim.de/spp-iop/documents

teams120 km rangePOLDIRAD


DO 128 MAP flight pattern “Black Forest“, “Vosges“, and pattern “Supersite“ + “Flux“.

R H SP

V M Supersite

V

M bilMobile teams

Further details are found in: COPS Field Report at www.uni-hohenheim.de/spp-iop/documents


BAE 146 flight pattern.

R H SP

V M Supersite

V

Mobile teams


SAFIRE-Falcon EUFAR and MAP flight pattern.

R H SP

V M Supersite

V

M bilMobile teams


DLR-Falcon FLUX and MAP flight pattern.

R H SP

V M Supersite

V

M bilMobile teams


Supersite

Weather stations:Weather stations: UK Innsbruck (A)U Vienna (A)(104 stations)

P

(104 stations)

Sodar

PSoil moisture

R H MSTurbulence

VV

Further details: COPS Field Report at www.uni-hohenheim.de/spp-iop/documents


AMF Supersite in Murg valley

D-PHASE and COPS Data Archiving d Mi i Pl iand Mission Planning

COPS Operations Center (OC)Operate webbased data management system to

NINJO and SynergyfOperate webbased data management system to

• visualize and discuss all forecasts and operational data available

• study radar and SSEC MSG analyses• select missions of the day• guide operations of the instruments• visualize and discuss COPS measurement data

Fast and user-friendlyinterface for visualizing• Meteo France and DWD

forecasts• operational data

Quick-looks

visualize and discuss COPS measurement data

COPS Instruments

Guidance

Quicklooks

DWD

Real-time quicklooks

Quick-looks

Data& quicklooks COPS/GOP Data Storage

Data&

quicklooksOperate data bank for• COPS data

D-PHASE

EUMETSAT

quicklooks COPS data• GOP data• Operational forecasts and analyses• Research forecasts and analyses

ETReC07

...GTS AssimilationReal-time data

Unique coordination of multi-model evaluationd t diand process studies.


COPS Impressions


COPS Research Aircraft


COPS Overview

35 IOP days with various forcing conditions. More details see COPS Field Report and COPS web site

Integrated precipitation during COPS

16

18

6

8

10

12

14

16

Freq

uenc

y

Latit

ude

(°)

COPS convection initiation statistics derived using MSG

0

2

4

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223Time (UTC)

Longitude (°)Night (18-24, 0-2 UTC)Morning (2 10 UTC)

rapid scans(Fumiko Aoshima, IPM Master Thesis 2007)

Morning (2-10 UTC)Afternoon (10-18 UTC)Diurnal cycle of convection


RSS OverviewIOP No. Date

MSG rapid scanning

data availability

IOP No. Date

MSG rapid scanning

data availability

05 Jun Yes 10 23 Jul Yes

106 Jun Yes

1125 Jul Yes

07 Jun Yes 26 Jul Yes

08 Jun Yes 12 30 Jul Yes

2 12 Jun Yes 01 Aug Yes2 12 Jun Yes13

01 Aug Yes

314 Jun NO 02 Aug Yes

15 Jun NO

14

07 Aug NO

419 Jun NO 08 Aug NO

20 Jun NO 09 Aug Yes

501 Jul Yes

1512 Aug Yes

02 Jul Yes 13 Aug Yes

6 04 Jul Yes 15 Aug Yes16

g


09 Jul Yes17

21 Aug Yes


15 J l Y 24 A Y15 Jul Yes18

24 Aug Yes

9


19 Jul Yes

20 Jul Yes

Data available during 83% of the IOPs.


COPS Treasure Chest

Area-wide and synergetic observation of process chain

High-resolution, 4D data set for process studiesobservation of process chain set for process studies

High-end data set for data assimilation studies

Coordination of WWRP RDP COPS with FDP D-PHASE for assimilation studiesCOPS with FDP D PHASE for

process and predictability studies


D-PHASED‐PHASE/COPS Process Chain

& COPS Coordination(Wulfmeyer, IPM; Lautenschlager, WDCC; Steinacker, UniVie; Rotach, MeteoSwiss)

Coordination

& DAPETReC07

& DAP COPS‐GRID(Bauer, IPM; Dick, GFZ; Wergen, DWD)

COPS F

COPS-AustriaMoisture Net (Hauck, IMK)

SurfAce fLuxes and Valley convEction

(U Bayreuth, U Mainz, Kalthoff, IMK)

L d U COPS-Italy

COPS-France

COPS‐CI Remote Sensing(Behrendt, IPM)

Lower and Upper Tropospheric Forcing

of Convection (Barthlott, IMK)

CICOPS-UK

COPS-Italy

Parameterization of CumulusConvection (Küll, U Bonn)

COPS UK

ARMACM COPS‐LIDAR‐IFT

(Ansmann, IfT)

EUMETSATLife Cycle of Deep Convectionduring COPS (Hagen, DLR)PPL WWRP MWF

Summary and Proposal

COPS process studies ongoing on:- land-surface exchange and ABL evolution- CI and organization of convection- Cloud and precipitation microphysicsProject on predictability of mesoscale processesprocessesSuggestion 1: COPS-D-PHASE as dataassimilation test bedassimilation test bedSuggestion 2: ESF proposal on mesoscale weather forecasting within EUROCORESweather forecasting within EUROCORES program


COPS Sensor SynergyJuly1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

IOP 5a 5b 6 7a 7b 8a 8b 8c 9a 9b 9c 10 11a 11b 12No. of CI events 2 8 1 0 3 0 1 * 3 0 6 5 0 0 1Airborne * no MSG rapid scan data available on this dayDLR DIAL x x x x x x x xLeandre2 x x x x x x x x x xMobileDOW1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xDOW2 x x x x x x x xSuSiHWV DIAL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xRRL x x x x x x x x x x x x xWindtracer x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xCloudRadar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xCloudRadar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xCNR MWR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xSuSiRBASIL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xDoppler Lidar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xCloudRadar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xTARA x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xMWR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xSuSiM

VIS RSS, IOP 8b,

BERTHA x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xWiLi x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xMPL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xCloudRadar x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xHATPRO x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xSuSiVTRESS x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xCNRS RL x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xSuSiS

Remote sensing system operation

July 15, 2007. SuSiSCeilometer x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xWTR x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xMICCY x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xPOLDIRAD x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

times during July 2007.


MSG RSS During IOP9c


Evaluation of Cloud Bottom in C ll b ti ith GOPCollaboration with GOP

Diurnal bias of COSMO-DE cloud base vs. ceilometer cloud base for July 2007. Only data where a cloud was detected by the ceilometer and simulated by the model (Courtesy Susanne Crewell, Uni Köln).


SSEC Madison Wisconsin Nowcasting Tools


COPS 4D Data Set: IOP 9cIOP 9c (July 20, 2007)

600

800

1000

1200

W/(m

*m))

Global Radiation

-400

-200

0

200

400

00:02:00 02:02:00 04:02:00 06:02:00 08:02:00 10:02:00 12:02:00 14:02:00 16:02:00 18:02:00 20:02:00 22:02:00

Flux

Com

pone

nts

(W Global RadiationNet RadiationSoil Heat FluxSensible Heat FluxLatent Heat Flux

Flux measurements atSupersite S

Water-vapor and aerosol fields measured with DLR Falcon

DWD radar network

with DLR Falcon

Wind field measured with DO-128Scanning cloud radar atMSG RSS gSupersite H


High-end Data Assimilation Studies

COSMO-EU

COSMO-DE

DIAL

MM5_controlMM5 4DVARMM5_4DVARobservation

RADAR

IPM GPS data assimilation study within COPS and D-PHASE demonstrates a significant positive impact on the simulation of the diurnal p pcycle of precipitation.

Further sources for impact, targeting, andd t i il ti t h l t di MSG?

GPS

data assimilation technology studies, MSG?


COPS/D-PHASE Data Assimilation Activities

DWD: COSMO-DE nudging

Data assimilation techniques:DWD: COSMO-DE nudgingDLR: COSMO-EU/-DE latent heat nuding, COSMO LEPS, targeting using ECMWF 4dVARUHOH: MM5/WRF 4DVARUHOH: MM5/WRF 4DVARMeteo France: AROME 3DVARCNRM: Meso-NH nudging?

Sources for mesoscale data assimilation

Further partners:- JMA: NHM 4DVAR

Therefore, we propose COPS / D-PHASE as WWRP data

i il ti t t b d - HIRLAM: 3DVAR or 4DVAR?- UK Met Office hybrid 4DVAR ETKF

assimilation test bed


ETKF

Unique Interaction Between D-PHASE and COPS

Windward/lee effect


Unique Interaction Between D-PHASE and COPS

COSMO-DE MESO-NH

IOP 9 J l 20 2007 13 UTC 15 i l t d i it ti

CMCGEMH

IOP 9c, July 20, 2007, 13 UTC, 15-min accumulated precipitation


Studies of Process Chain and Predictability of Precipitation with the D-PHASE Ensemble and COPS Observations

First results:

First evaluation of D-PHASE models in COPS domain.

Comparison between simulated and observedt fi ld d i IOP 8bwater-vapor fields during IOP 8b.


Studies of Process Chain and Predictability of Precipitation with the D-PHASE Ensemble and COPS Observations

COPS 4D data set

D-PHASE forecasts

COPS website

COPS, GOP

Case studies of process chain

Forecasts with different- multi-model ensemble members- parameterizations- data assim. and obs. systems

Evaluation

D-PHASE data archive

Proposals of suitable combinations for process

studies in order to:

Analyze an

data assim. and obs. systems- boundary conditions

Investigate the initiation and

organization of convection

Analyze specific failures of

parameterizations and evaluate

Evaluate the impact of

different data assimilation systems and observations

nd improve mod

optimal combination

model physicsobservations

del ensemble sk

Studies on predictability by algorithms based on Bayesian statistics

kills

Extension of the results from the COPS to the D PHASE domainto the D-PHASE domain


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