first world hybrid real estate plc · first world hybrid real estate(fwhre) vs. listed uk property...
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June 2017
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc
• Fund overview • Steady expansion • Key portfolio features • Acquisition filter process • Portfolio overview • Performance & volatility
• Is UK property expensive or cheap? • Against UK parameters • Relative to SA property
• Potential concerns & actions • Redemptions and liquidity • Debt funding risks • Concentration risks & diversification • Brexit
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Steady expansion
Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 June 2017
No. of properties 2 7 12 15
Gross asset value £15m £37m £75m £96m
Net asset value £10m £21m £44m £58m
No. of investors 25 160 475 600
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Robust income from the property portfolio
• All leases FRI - > income certainty • All tenants D&B 5A1 – top business rating
54% 22%
24%
Portfolio analysis: property sector type by value LT Target: 75% warehousing 25% regional offices
distribution warehousing
retail warehousing
regional offices
21%
59%
20%
Portfolio analysis: lease expiry profile by value WAULT target >10 yrs, Actual >13 yrs
>5 years and <10 years
>10 years and <15 years
>15 years
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Key features
• Regulated Fund, listed on The International Stock Exchange (TISE)
• Hybrid structure - invested in UK commercial real estate, global REITs and cash
Cash
Listed REITS
Direct Property
• Liquid
• Liquid • Priced on stock market • Diversified
• UK real estate property portfolio, yielding approx 6% • Each property independently valued at least annually
Type of property
Geographic location
Ticket size - £3 to £15m
Unexpired lease term
Lease type FRI, 5 yearly reviews
Lease covenant Rentals at market?
Yield
The Property Acquisition Filter Process
6
Portfolio – Geographic Locations
7
B&M Retail – Leek, Staffordshire
Single storey, modern stand alone retail warehouse, totalling 26 675 square foot and a 10 000 square foot garden centre
Acquired in June 2017 at initial yield of 6.25%
Lease expiry 24th March 2028
BDW Trading Ltd – Gateshead, Newcastle
Office building (21 626 sqft)
Acquired in June 2017 (initial yield of 6.7%)
FRI lease (expires 1 July 2027, no tenant break)
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Performance – Total Return as at 30 June 2017
Total Return 1 year 2 years* 3 years*
FWHRE 8.1% 8.4% 10.2%
NAREIT UK REITs (TRGBP) 9.8% -0.6% 9.3%
Source: Bloomberg
*annualised
£1 358 700
£1 271 793
£900000.0
£1000000.0
£1100000.0
£1200000.0
£1300000.0
£1400000.0
£1500000.0
£1600000.0
£1700000.0
Jan
14
Mar
14
May
14
Jul 1
4
Sep
14
Nov
14
Jan
15
Mar
15
May
15
Jul 1
5
Sep
15
Nov
15
Jan
16
Mar
16
May
16
Jul 1
6
Sep
16
Nov
16
Jan
17
Mar
17
May
17
First World Hybrid Real Estate(FWHRE) vs. Listed UK Property
First World Hybrid Real Estate NAREIT UK REITs TRGBP
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Performance compared to UK Listed REITS as at 30 June 2017
9% higher TR, low volatility
Volatility
UK Bond Yields up
EU vote
Source: Bloomberg and Marriott
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Performance – Risk Statistics as at 30 June 2017
Source: Bloomberg
Risk Stats (3 year annualised)
Standard Deviation
Downside Risk
Sharpe Ratio
FWHRE 7.7% 2.8% 1.3%
NAREIT UK REITs (TRGBP) 19.4% 14.7% 0.4%
UK property vs govt bonds vs corporate bonds A compelling investment case – double return from corporate bond?
– Red graph – income return from SIG property (FTSE 250 co) – Green line the income derived from 10 year bond – flat lining – Blue line, FTSE 250 corporate bond
Source: Bloomberg & Marriott, Note: Monthly returns as at month end.
£-
£20 000
£40 000
£60 000
£80 000
£100 000
£120 000
£140 000
£160 000
£180 000
£200 000
£-
£500 000
£1 000 000
£1 500 000
£2 000 000
£2 500 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Using SIG Sheffield property metrics 25 year FRI lease, 6% initial yield,
RPI linked 5 yearly reviews (1-3% pa), assumed 2%
UK Government Bond (10yr) - Income UK Corporate Bond (10yr) - Income UK Property - IncomeUK Government Bond (10yr)- Capital UK Corporate Bond (10yr) - Capital UK Property - Capital
£109K
£12K
£42K £60k
£32k
£11k
UK property vs govt bonds vs corporate bonds A compelling investment case? What the capital investment would look like with income reinvested over the period
Source: Bloomberg & Marriott, Note: Monthly returns as at month end.
£-
£20 000
£40 000
£60 000
£80 000
£100 000
£120 000
£140 000
£160 000
£180 000
£200 000
£-
£500 000
£1 000 000
£1 500 000
£2 000 000
£2 500 000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
UK Government Bond (10yr) - Income UK Corporate Bond (10yr) - Income UK Property - Income
UK Government Bond (10yr)- Capital UK Corporate Bond (10yr) - Capital UK Property - Capital
£1.4 Million
£1.1 Million
£2.1 Million
£109K
£12K
£42K £60k
£32k
£11k
UK property vs SA property Trends and risks?
UK SA
Lease structures Income certainty
Long leases, upwards only reviews
Less predictable Shorter lease duration,
reviews to market
Occupational mkt (rental growth)
Despite Brexit, firm Good demand, low
vacancies, rental growth
Worrying signs Weak economic growth
Negative reversions
Investment mkt (yields)
Firm Diverse investor demand
Deal and Valuation evidence
Worrying SA REITs weaker
Red flags
SA Prime Office yields vs LT Trends vs govt bond yields (source MSCI / IPD) Red flags?
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Redemptions and liquidity
Years 2016 2017 ytd
Fund net asset value (end of period) £44m £58m
Average monthly liquidity £8m £15m
Redemptions (period) £1.8m £3.6m
Average of monthly redemptions / monthly liquidity 2% 3%
• Liquidity = Cash and REITs, benchmarked on equity excl Marriott funds: target of 25% (minimum of 15%)
• 5 REITs identified for investment - BritLand, Hammerson, Segro, LM, TriBox
• Large, diversified, readily tradeable and liquid - Yield 4% plus
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Prudent debt funding well justified
• 100% variable, at 2.5% debt funding cost, 3 year term
• LTV restricted to 50% on direct properties
• Low effective 45% overall Fund LTV (based on target weightings)
• Debt covenants well within agreement levels
– Approx. 20% property devaluation headroom to 60% LTV covenant
– Interest charge covered > 5 times (the ultimate test)
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Concentration risk & currency
• Property portfolio increasingly diversified
– 15 properties
– Spread between distribution & retail warehousing and regional offices (Long term targets: 50/25/25 respectively)
– Lease expiries (with strong WAULT)
– Tenants (companies and industries) - all 5A1
• This is a UK Sterling denominated investment (multi currency risk avoided)
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Brexit risk
• Uncertainty remains but UK economy has performed far better than many have speculated
• The UK is and surely will remain an important 1st world economy and one which will be a desirable destination for investment and wealth
• FWHRE targeted investments (long lease warehousing & regional offices) – No evidence of softer yields when buying (actually firmer!) – Independent valuations of FWHRE properties best evidence
• 9 valuations post Brexit – 4 confirmed at same levels and 5 at lower yields (higher prices) – Recent trend - 4 of the 5 this calendar year at lower yields
First World Hybrid Real Estate plc Summary
• Robust attractive dividend yield
• Capital growth in line with rental growth
• Better liquidity and pricing certainty than typical direct property investments but less volatility than publicly quoted and traded property
• With the benefit of a Regulated investment