fiscal redistribution in low and middle income countries · nora lustig tulane university cgd and...
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FiscalRedistributioninLowandMiddleIncomeCountries
NoraLustigTulaneUniversityCGDandIAD
DevTalksDevelopmentCentre
OECDParis,October10,2016
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Lustig, Nora, editor, Commitment to EquityHandbook. A Guide to Estimating the Impactof Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty,Brookings Institution Press and TulaneUniversity, forthcoming.
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• Comprehensivestandardfiscalincidenceanalysisofcurrentsystems• Harmonizeddefinitionsandmethodologicalapproachestofacilitatecross-countrycomparisons• Usesincome/consumptionpercapitaasthewelfareindicator• Allocatorsvary=>fulltransparencyinthemethodusedforeachcategory,taxshiftingassumptions,taxevasion• Secondarysourcesareusedtoaminimum
3
LustigandHiggins,TheCEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.“ChapterinLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequalityandPoverty, BrookingsInstitutionPressandTulaneUniversity,forthcoming.
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CEQAssessment:FiscalInterventions
• Currentlyincluded:• Directtaxes• Directcashtransfers• Non-cashdirecttransferssuchasschooluniformsandbreakfast• Contributionstopensionsandsocialinsurancesystems• Indirecttaxesonconsumption• Indirectsubsidies• In-kindtransferssuchasspendingoneducationandhealth
• Workingon:• Corporatetaxes
4
LustigandHiggins,TheCEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.“ChapterinLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequalityandPoverty, BrookingsInstitutionPressandTulaneUniversity,forthcoming.
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MARKETINCOME
DISPOSABLEINCOME
PLUSDIRECTTRANSFERSMINUSDIRECTTAXES
PLUSINDIRECTSUBSIDIESMINUSINDIRECTTAXES
CONSUMABLEINCOME
PLUSMONETIZEDVALUEOFPUBLICSERVICES:EDUCATION&HEALTH
FINALINCOME
CEQAssessment: IncomeConcepts
5
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LustigandHiggins,TheCEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.“Chapter inLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty, BrookingsInstitution PressandTulaneUniversity, forthcoming.
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FiscalIncidenceinCEQAssessments
§ Accountingapproach• nobehavioralresponses• nogeneralequilibriumeffectsand• nointertemporal effects• butitincorporatesassumptionstoobtaineconomicincidence(notstatutory)
§ Point-in-time§ Mainlyaverageincidence;afewcaseswithmarginalincidence
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LustigandHiggins,”The CEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.“ChapterinLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequalityandPoverty, BrookingsInstitutionPressandTulaneUniversity,forthcoming.
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Monetizingin-kindtransfers
§ Incidenceofpublicspendingoneducationandhealthfollowedso-called“benefitorexpenditureincidence”orthe“governmentcost”approach.
§ Inessence,weuseperbeneficiaryinputcostsobtainedfromadministrativedata(andscalethemdown)asthemeasureofaveragebenefits.
§ Thisapproachamountstoaskingthefollowingquestion:Ø Howmuchwouldtheincomeofahouseholdhaveto
beincreasedifithadtopayforthefreeorsubsidizedpublicserviceatthefullcosttothegovernment?
7
LustigandHiggins,TheCEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.“ChapterinLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequalityandPoverty, BrookingsInstitutionPressandTulaneUniversity,forthcoming.
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CommitmenttoEquityInstitute(CEQI)
Objective:Tomeasuretheimpactoffiscalpolicyoninequalityandpovertyacrosstheworld
• Research-basedpolicytools• DataCenter• Advisoryandtrainingservices• Bridgestopolicy
ØGrantfromBill&MelindaGatesFoundationUS4.9millionfor5yrs
8
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9www.commitmentoequity.org
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Threemainmessagesfromtheory
1.Analyzingthetaxsidewithoutthespendingside,orviceversa,isuseless
ØTaxescanbeunequalizingbutspendingsoequalizingthattheunequalizing effectoftaxesismorethancompensated(weknewthis…)
ØTaxescanberegressive(Kakwani index)butwhencombinedwithtransfersandothertaxes,thefiscalsystemismoreequalizingthanwithouttheregressivetaxes(Lambert,2001)(surprised?)Ø VATinChile
ØTransferscanbeprogressive(Kakwani index)butwhencombinedwithtaxesandothertransfers,thefiscalsystemismoreunequalizingwiththeprogressivepensionsthanwithoutthem(generalizingLambert)(surprised?)Ø Contributory pensions inColombia
10
Enami,Lustig andAranda.“AnalyticalFoundations:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.”ChapterinLustig(editor) CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequality andPoverty, BrookingsInstitution PressandTulaneUniversity, forthcoming.
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2.AnalyzingtheimpactoninequalityonlycanbemisleadingØFiscalsystemscanbeequalizingbutpovertyincreasing(surprised?)
3.AnalyzingtheimpactontraditionalpovertyindicatorscanbemisleadingØFiscalsystemscanshowareductioninpoverty(headcountratio,gaporsquaredgap)…
Ø….andyetasubstantialshareofthepoorcouldhavebeenimpoverishedbythecombinedeffectoftaxesandtransfers(surprised?)
11
LustigandHiggins,“TheCEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.“ChapterinLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimating theImpactofFiscalPolicy onInequalityandPoverty, BrookingsInstitutionPressandTulaneUniversity,forthcoming.
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Lustig, Nora. 2016. “Fiscal Policy, Inequality,and the Poor in the Developing World.”Tulane University, Economics Working Paper1612, October.
https://ideas.repec.org/p/tul/wpaper/1612.html
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• Empiricalresultsfor25countriesbasedonfiscalincidencestudiesfromtheCommitmenttoEquityInstituteforaround2010• Twolow-incomecountries:Ethiopia (Hilletal.,2016)andTanzania(Youngeretal.,2016)
• Ninelowermiddle-incomecountries:Armenia (Younger andKhachatryan,2016),Bolivia (Paz-Arauco etal.,2014),ElSalvador (Beneke,LustigandOliva,2014),Ghana (Youngeretal.,2015),Guatemala (Cabrera,LustigandMoran,2015),Honduras (Castañeda andEspino,2015), Indonesia (Afkar etal.,2016),SriLanka (Arunatilake etal.,2016),andTunisia (Shimeles etal.,2016)
• Elevenuppermiddle-income countries:Brazil (Higgins andPereira,2014),Colombia (LustigandMelendez,2016),CostaRica (Sauma andTrejos,2014),DominicanRepublic (Aristy-Escuder etal.,2016),Ecuador (Llerena etal.,2015),Georgia (Cancho andBondarenko, 2016), Jordan (Alam etal.,2016),Mexico (Scott,2014),Peru (Jaramillo,2014),Russia (Lopez-Calva etal.,2016),andSouthAfrica (Inchauste etal.,2016)
• Twohigh-income countries:Chile (Martinez-Aguilaretal.,2016),andUruguay (Bucheli etal.,2014).
• Oneunclassified:Argentina (Rossignolo, 2016),
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SIZEANDCOMPOSITIONOFGOVERNMENTREVENUESAND
SPENDING
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Moresocialspending,moreredistribution
15Source:Lustig(2016)
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ARG
ARMBOL
BRA
CHLCOL
CRI
DOM
ECU
SLV
ETH
GEO
GHAGTM HNDIND JOR
MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA
TUN
URYy=0.9399x***- 0.0283*
(6.89)(-1.88)R²=0.6734
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Redistrib
utiveeffect
Socialspending
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Socialspending/GDPincreaseswithincome(GrossNationalIncomepercapita)
16Source:Lustig(2016)
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ARM
BOL
BRA
CHLCOL
CRI
DOMECUSLVETH
GEO
GHAGTM
HND
IND
JORMEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA
TUN
URY
y=6E-06x***+0.073***(3.09)(3.51)R²=0.3027
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000Socia
lspe
ndingp
luscon
tributoryp
ensio
ns/G
DP
GNIpercapita(2011PPP)
SocialSpendingpluscontributory pensions/GDP
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Directtransfers/GDPvs.GNIpercapita
17Source:Lustig(2016)
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ARMBOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRIDOM
ECUSLVETH
GEO
GHAGTMHND IND
JOR MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZATUN
URY
y=1E-06x*+0.0045(1.97)(0.64)R²=0.1498
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Directtran
sfers/GD
P
GNI percapita(2011PPP)
Directtransfers/GDP
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Educationspending/GDPvs.GNIpercapita
18Source:Lustig(2016)
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ARM
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRI
DOM
ECUSLV
ETH
GEO
GHA
GTM
HND
IND JOR
MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZA
TUN
URY
y=-3E-07x+0.0465***(-0.47)(6.36)
R²=0.01
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Educationspen
ding
/GDP
GNIpercapita(2011PPP)
Educationspending/GDP
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Healthspending/GDPvs.GNIpercapita
19Source:Lustig(2016)
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ARM
BOL
BRA
CHL
COL
CRI
DOMECU
SLV
ETH
GEOGHA
GTM
HND
IND
JORMEXPER
RUS
ZAF
LKATZA TUN
URY
y=1E-06x**+0.0164**(2.43)(2.72)R²=0.2122
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Healthsp
ending
/GDP
GNIpercapita(2011PPP)Healthspending/GDP
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CompositionoftotalgovernmentrevenuesasashareofGDP(circa2010)
20
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Source:Lustig(2016)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%(rankedbytotalgovernmentrevenue/GDP;GNIrighthandscale)
Directtaxes Indirectandothertaxes Socialsecuritycontributions Otherrevenues GNIpercapita(2011PPP)
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21Source:Lustig(2016)
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CompositionofsocialspendingasashareofGDP(circa2010)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
(rankedbysocialspendingpluscontributorypensions/GDP;GNIrighthandscale)
Directtransfers Education Health Othersocialspending Contributorypensions GNIpercapita(2011PPP)
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FISCALREDISTRIBUTION
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MARKETINCOME
DISPOSABLEINCOME
PLUSDIRECTTRANSFERSMINUSDIRECTTAXES
PLUSINDIRECTSUBSIDIESMINUSINDIRECTTAXES
CONSUMABLEINCOME
PLUSMONETIZEDVALUEOFPUBLICSERVICES:EDUCATION&HEALTH
FINALINCOME
CEQAssessment: IncomeConcepts
23
LustigandHiggins,TheCEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.“ChapterinLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimatingtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty,BrookingsInstitutionPressandTulaneUniversity,forthcoming.
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Inequality
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25
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0.25
0.35
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
Marketincomepluspensions Disposableincome Consumable income Finalincome
GiniCoefficient
Argentina(2012) Armenia(2011) Bolivia(2009)Brazil(2009) Chile(2013) Colombia(2010)CostaRica(2010) DominicanRepublic(2013) Ecuador(2011)ElSalvador(2011) Ethiopia(2011) Georgia(2013)Ghana(2013) Guatemala(2011) Honduras(2011)Indonesia(2012) Jordan(2010) Mexico(2010)Peru(2009) Russia(2010) SouthAfrica(2010)SriLanka(2010) Tanzania (2011) Tunisia(2010)Uruguay(2009)
Marketincome (pluscontributory pensions)
Disposableincome Consumable income
Finalincome
FiscalPolicyandInequality–Contributorypensionsasdeferredincome
Source:Lustig(2016)
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26Source:Lustig(2016)
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0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
Market income Disposable income Consumable income Final income
Gini Coefficient
Argentina (2012) Armenia (2011) Bolivia (2009)Brazil (2009) Chile (2013) Colombia (2010)Costa Rica (2010) Dominican Republic (2013) Ecuador (2011)El Salvador (2011) Ethiopia (2011) Georgia (2013)Ghana (2013) Guatemala (2011) Honduras (2011)Indonesia (2012) Jordan (2010) Mexico (2010)Peru (2009) Russia (2010) South Africa (2010)Sri Lanka (2010) Tanzania (2011) Tunisia (2010)Uruguay (2009)
Consumable incomeDisposableincomeMarketincome(pluscontributory pensions)
Finalincome
FiscalPolicyandInequality–Contributorypensionsasdirecttransfers
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Redistributiveeffect(ChangeinGinipoints:marketincomepluspensionsandmarketincometodisposableincome,circa2010)
27Source:Lustig(2016)
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0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
-0.20-0.18-0.16-0.14-0.12-0.10-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.020.00
Redistrib
utivee
ffect-m
arketincom
etodisp
osab
le
(rankedbyredistributiveeffect(lefthandscale);Ginicoefficientsrighthandscale)
Contributorypensionsasdeferredincome ContributorypensionsasdirecttransferGinimarketincomepluspensions Ginimarketincome
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Moreunequal,moresocialspending/GDPNo“RobinHoodParadox”
28Source:Lustig(2016)
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ARG
ARM
BOLBRA
CHL
COL
CRI
DOM
ECU
SLVETH
GEO
GHA GTM
HND
IND
JORMEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKATZA
TUN
URY
y=0.2131x***+0.002(2.87)(0.06)R²=0.2637
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80
Socia
lspe
nding
Ginimarketincomepluspensions
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29
Moreunequal,moreredistributionNo“RobinHoodParadox”
Source:Lustig(2016)
ARG
ARM
BOL
BRACHI
COL
CRIDOMECU
SLVETH
GEO
GHA GTM
HNDINDJOR
MEX
PER
RUS
ZAF
LKA
TZATUN
URY
y=0.0952x*- 0.0184(1.76)(-0.70)R²=0.1183
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
0.20 0.35 0.50 0.65 0.80
Redistrib
utivee
ffect
Ginimarketincomepluspensions
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Insum…
• InNO country,inequalityincreasesasaresultoftaxes,subsidiesandsocialspending
ØFiscalpolicyisalwaysequalizing
ØThemoreunequal,themorefiscalredistribution
30
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Whichfiscalinstrumentsareequalizingandwhicharenot?
• Relyonthesignofthe“marginalcontribution”• Themarginalcontributionequalsthedifferenceinthereductionininequalityobservedwithoutthefiscalinstrumentofinterest(andalltheothersinplace)andwithit(andalltheothersinplace)• Positivemeansitisequalizing• Negativemeansitisunequalizing• Zeromeansitleavesinequalityunchanged• ThefollowingtablesusesthechangeinGinipointstomeasurefiscalredistribution
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The image part with relationship ID rId2
Low-incomeEconomies
Lower-middle-incomeeconomies
Tanzania(2011)
Armenia(2011) Bolivia(2009)
ElSalvador(2011)
Ghana(2013)
Indonesia(2012)
SriLanka(2010)
Redistributiveeffect(fromGinimarketincomepluspensions tofinal income) 0.0534 0.1125 0.0646 0.0356 0.0349 0.0238 0.0278MarginalcontributionDirecttaxes -0.0012 0.020 -- 0.0039 -0.0057 0.0000 0.0025Directtransfers 0.0009 0.091 0.0099 0.0057 0.0011 0.0037 0.0041Indirecttaxes 0.0175 0.000 0.0004 0.0012 0.0016 -0.0022 0.0006Indirectsubsidies -0.0033 -0.001 0.0004 0.0011 -0.0008 0.0014 0.0051Education 0.0116 0.013 0.0340 0.0141 0.0085 0.0194 0.0105Health 0.0016 0.003 0.0237 0.0105 0.0073 0.0031 0.0056
KakwaniDirecttaxes 0.4789 0.096 -- 0.3574 notavailable -- 0.5458Directtransfers 0.2791 0.660 0.0713 0.5001 0.8066 0.6397 0.7572Indirecttaxes 0.0992 -0.129 -0.1259 -0.0182 0.0021 -0.0420 -0.0063Indirectsubsidies -0.2126 0.381 0.1311 0.1666 -0.0115 0.0560 0.3056Education 0.2641 notavailable 0.5076 0.5655 notavailable 0.3630 0.3892Health 0.2064 0.500 0.5360 0.3126 notavailable 0.2730 0.3963
RelativesizeDirecttaxes 1.3% 4.5% -- 1.7% 4.6% -- 0.5%Directtransfers 0.4% 18.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6%Indirecttaxes 13.1% 12.0% 7.8% 7.3% 6.3% 6.8% 7.4%Indirectsubsidies 1.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 2.1% 8.2% 2.0%Education 7.5% 3.1% 7.7% 2.6% 6.0% 6.2% 3.2%Health 2.3% 1.5% 5.2% 3.6% 3.1% 1.6% 1.6%Alltaxes– alltransfers 3.1% -6.5% -7.9% 0.8% -0.5% -9.8% 0.4%
MarginalContributions(contributorypensionsasdeferredincome)– Low-incomeandlower-middle-incomeeconomies
Source:Lustig(2016)Theunequalizing effectappear inredfontandcaseswheremicrodata isunavailableandmciscalculatedbasedonthe informationbydeciles arehighlighted inblue.
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The image part with relationship ID rId2 MarginalContributions (contributorypensionsasdeferredincome)– Upper-
middle-incomeandhigh-incomeeconomiesUpper-middle-incomeEconomies High-income
Economies
Brazil(2009)
Colombia(2010)
CostaRica(2010)
Ecuador(2011)
Georgia(2013)
Jordan(2010)
Mexico(2010)
Peru(2009)
Russia(2010)
SouthAfrica(2010)
Chile(2013)
Uruguay(2009)
Redistributiveeffect(fromGini marketincomepluspensions tofinal income) 0.1221 0.0677 0.1307 0.0747 0.1244 0.0230 0.0831 0.0418 0.0629 0.1758 0.0740 0.1018MarginalcontributionDirecttaxes 0.0143 -0.0003 0.0139 0.0047 0.0221 0.0071 0.0151 0.0061 0.0139 0.0430 0.0120 0.0186Directtransfers 0.0148 0.0057 0.0095 0.0157 0.1002 0.0052 0.0094 0.0044 0.0203 0.0517 0.0190 0.0199Indirecttaxes 0.0113 -0.0004 0.0118 0.0062 -0.0141 -0.0014 0.0053 0.0069 -0.0009 0.0127 0.0040 0.0019Indirectsubsidies 0.0005 0.0049 -- 0.0056 0.0004 0.0042 0.0032 -- 0.0001 -- 0.0023 --Education 0.0509 0.0268 0.0393 0.0283 0.0199 0.0155 0.0326 0.0175 0.0207 0.0490 0.0321 0.0289Health 0.0292 0.0265 0.0342 0.0119 0.0077 -0.0087 0.0163 0.0084 0.0127 0.0433 0.0135 0.0348
Kakwani
Directtaxes 0.2490not
available 0.1052 0.4017 0.1819 0.5941 0.2411 0.3853 0.1042 0.1254 0.4520 0.2245Directtransfers 0.5069 0.7831 0.9104 0.8385 0.7063 0.5497 0.7931 0.9612 0.5927 1.0421 0.8243 0.9367Indirecttaxes -0.0179 -0.0961 0.0053 0.0363 -0.2298 -0.0664 0.0129 0.0527 -0.0724 -0.0828 -0.0273 -0.0753Indirectsubsidies 0.8373 0.5316 -- 0.2131 0.3716 0.1512 0.2457 -- 0.2128 -- 0.4969 --
Education 0.7087not
available 0.5644 0.6930 0.5414 0.4784 0.5816 0.6566 0.4978 0.8169 0.6641 0.5888
Health 0.6914not
available 0.5442 0.5910 0.6360 0.0557 0.4608 0.3109 0.3740 0.8275 0.5930 0.5813RelativesizeDirecttaxes 4.2% 0.2% 6.6% 1.6% 9.8% 1.3% 5.0% 1.4% 0.0704 15.0% 2.3% 6.1%Directtransfers 5.1% 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 19.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0467 5.4% 2.7% 2.3%Indirecttaxes 12.9% 1.9% 10.0% 6.3% 12.8% 3.1% 6.0% 7.6% 0.0803 14.1% 10.3% 7.9%Indirectsubsidies 0.1% 1.1% -- 4.1% 0.4% 3.5% 2.0% -- 0.0009 -- 0.5% --Education 10.6% 4.7% 8.7% 4.6% 4.3% 3.6% 6.3% 2.7% 0.0445 6.9% 5.2% 5.6%Health 4.8% 7.1% 8.0% 2.4% 1.9% 3.4% 4.3% 2.9% 0.0419 5.5% 3.2% 6.8%Alltaxes- alltransfers -3.6% -11.7% -1.5% -5.4% -3.4% -7.5% -2.9% 2.9% 0.0169 11.2% 1.0% -0.8%
Source:Lustig(2016)33
Unequalizing effectappearsinredfont.
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Insum…
• DirecttaxesareequalizingexceptinColombia,GhanaandTanzania(surprised?)• Directtransfersarealwaysequalizing(phew!)• Indirecttaxesaremoreoftenthannotequalizing(surprised?),exceptinColombia,Georgia,Indonesia,JordanandRussia• Indirectsubsidiesaremoreoftenthannotequalizing(surprised?),exceptinArmenia,Ghana,andTanzania• Educationandhealthspendingarealwaysequalizing
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Poverty
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• Fiscalpolicycanbeequalizingbutpovertyincreasing(intermsofthepoor’sabilitytoconsumeprivategoodsandservices):Ø1.25/dayline:Ethiopia,Ghana,Guatemala,Tanzania
Ø2.50/dayline:Armenia,Bolivia,Ethiopia,Ghana,Guatemala,Honduras,SriLanka,Tanzania
Ø4/dayline:alloftheaboveplusArgentina,Brazil,CostaRicaandTunisia
• Thisworrisomeresultstemsmainlyfromconsumptiontaxes
36Lustig, Nora. 2016. “Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and thePoor in theDevelopingWorld.” TulaneUniversity, EconomicsWorkingPaper 1612,October.
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37Source:Lustig(2016)
FiscalPolicyandPovertyReduction(ChangeinHeadcountRatiofromMarkettoConsumable Income(Povertyline$1.25/day
2005ppp;Contributory Pensions asDeferredIncome;in%)
The image part with relationship ID rId2
-0.2%-1.7%-3.3%-8.3%-10.3%-11.5%-16.1%-16.5%-18.0%-18.5%
-24.9%-31.8%-33.9%-34.6%
-44.9%-45.5%-45.9%-50.6%-56.4%
-69.6% -69.8% -70.7%
-88.2%-97.0%
-36.2%
17.8%13.3%
4.2% 2.4%
-12.7%
-8.8%-2.3%
-14.1%-14.1%
-24.6%
-7.5%-15.7%
-35.0%
-53.8%
-37.8%
-22.7%
-53.8%
-36.2%-42.7%
-76.4%
-66.2%
-54.2%
-82.0%-82.6%
-29.4%
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%(rankedbypovertyreductionin%;povertyline$1.252005PPP/day)
Marketincomepluspensionstodisposableincome Marketincomepluspensionstoconsumableincome
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38Source:Lustig(2016)
FiscalPolicyandPovertyReduction(ChangeinHeadcountRatiofromMarkettoConsumableIncome(Povertyline$2.50/day
2005ppp;ContributoryPensions asDeferredIncome;in%)
The image part with relationship ID rId2
1.5% 1.1% 0.9%
-1.0%-1.8%-2.8%-3.3%-6.5%
-7.0% -7.3%-7.7%-8.3%-10.1%-10.4%-14.9%
-21.4%-22.0%-24.0%-27.8%-28.5%
-35.9%-40.6%
-58.4%-61.0%
-71.4%
-18.7%
9.1%5.7% 3.1%
-2.9%
1.1%5.5%
0.5%
-0.2%
-9.0%-4.4%
11.4%
-25.2%
-0.8%
3.3%
-15.1%-10.6%
-4.7%
-34.8%
-22.2%
-35.1%-29.1%
-23.3%
-51.8%
-35.4%
-51.1%
-12.6%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%(rankedbypovertyreduction in%;poverty line$2.502005PPP/day)
Marketincomepluspensionstodisposableincome Marketincomepluspensionstoconsumableincome
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39Source:Lustig(2016)
FiscalPolicyandPovertyReduction(ChangeinHeadcountRatiofromMarkettoConsumable Income(Povertyline$4.00/day
2005ppp;ContributoryPensionsasDeferredIncome;in%)
The image part with relationship ID rId2
4.3% 2.0%1.0% 0.7% 0.4%
-0.1%-0.2%
-0.4% -1.7% -2.1%-2.7%-2.7% -2.9% -4.7% -5.6% -6.2%
-8.0% -8.5%-12.9%-13.9%
-26.8%
-41.0%-41.2%-42.0%
-9.5%
2.7%
6.6%
2.8%
13.7%
1.0% 1.9%
-0.8%
4.1% 4.9%
-2.3%
3.8%0.4% 1.9%
-8.4%
4.4%
-3.5%-0.3%
8.1%
-15.6%
2.8%
-12.5%
1.6%
-24.2%-21.8%
-1.4%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20% (rankedbypovertyreductionin%;povertyline$4.00 2005PPP/day)
Marketincomepluspensionstodisposableincome Marketincomepluspensionstoconsumableincome
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Netpayersandnetreceivers(bydecile;Contributorypensionsasdeferredincome)
40
The image part with relationship ID rId2
Ghana(2013)Tanzania (2011)Argentina(2012)CostaRica(2010)ElSalvador(2011)Guatemala(2011)
Peru(2009)Russia(2010)
Armenia(2011)Brazil(2009)Bolivia(2009)Chile(2013)
DominicanRepublic(2013)Ethiopia(2011)
Honduras(2011)Tunisia(2010)
Uruguay(2009)SriLanka(2010)Mexico(2010)
SouthAfrica(2010)Colombia(2010)Ecuador(2011)Georgia(2013)Jordan(2010)
Indonesia(2012)
Netreceivers Netpayers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Source:Lustig(2016)
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Netpayersandnetreceivers(byincomegroups;Contributorypensionsasdeferredincome)
41
The image part with relationship ID rId2
Source:Lustig(2016)
Ghana(2013)Tanzania (2011)Armenia(2011)Ethiopia(2011)
Guatemala(2011)Bolivia(2009)
Honduras(2011)DominicanRepublic(2013)
ElSalvador(2011)Peru(2009)
SriLanka(2010)Argentina(2012)
Chile(2013)Colombia(2010)CostaRica(2010)Georgia(2013)Mexico(2010)Russia(2010)
SouthAfrica(2010)Tunisia(2010)
Uruguay(2009)Brazil(2009)
Ecuador(2011)Jordan(2010)
Indonesia(2012)
Netreceivers Netpayers
y<1.25 1.25<=y<2.5 2.5<=y<4 4<=y<10 10<=y<50 y>=50
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Analyzingtheimpactontraditionalpovertyindicatorscanbemisleading
ØFiscalsystemscanshowareductioninpovertyandyetasubstantialshareofthepoorcouldhavebeenimpoverishedbythecombinedeffectoftaxesandtransfers
42HigginsandLustig (2016)
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43
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HigginsandLustig.2016.Canapoverty reducingandprogressivetaxandtransfersystemhurtthepoor?JournalofDevelopmentEconomics122,63-75,2016
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DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor
Howfrequentlyfiscalsystemsmaybeinequalityreducingbutatthesametimeleavethepoorworseoffintermsoftheirpurchasingpowerofprivategoodsandservices?
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FiscalImpoverishment(MarkettoConsumableIncome)
45HigginsandLustig (2016)
Country(surveyyear)
Marketincomeplus
pensionsPoverty
headcount(%)
Changeinpovertyheadcoun
t(p.p.)
Marketincomepluspensionsinequality(Gini)
Reynolds-Smolensky
Changeininequality(▲Gini)
Fiscallyimpoverished
as%ofpopulation
FiscallyImpoverishedas
%ofconsumableincomepoor
PanelA:Upper-middle incomecountries,usingapovertyline of$2.52005 PPP perday
Brazil(2009) 16.8 -0.8 57.5 4.6 -3.5 5.6 34.9
Chile(2013) 2.8 -1.4 49.4 3.2 -3.0 0.3 19.2
Ecuador(2011) 10.8 -3.8 47.8 3.5 -3.3 0.2 3.2
Mexico(2012) 13.3 -1.2 54.4 3.8 -2.5 4.0 32.7
Peru(2011) 13.8 -0.2 45.9 0.9 -0.8 3.2 23.8
Russia(2010) 4.3 -1.3 39.7 3.9 -2.6 1.1 34.4
SouthAfrica(2010) 49.3 -5.2 77.1 8.3 -7.7 5.9 13.3
Tunisia(2010) 7.8 -0.1 44.7 8.0 -6.9 3.0 38.5
Brazil(2009) 16.8 -0.8 57.5 4.6 -3.5 5.6 34.9
Chile(2013) 2.8 -1.4 49.4 3.2 -3.0 0.3 19.2
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Country(surveyyear)
Marketincomeplus
pensionsPoverty
headcount(%)
Changeinpovertyheadcoun
t(p.p.)
Marketincomeplus
pensionsinequality(Gini)
Reynolds-Smolensky
Changeininequality(▲Gini)
Fiscallyimpoverished
as%ofpopulation
FiscallyImpoverished
as%ofconsumableincomepoor
Panel B:Lower-middle incomecountries,usingapovertyline of$1.252005PPPperday
Armenia(2011) 21.4 -9.6 47.4 12.9 -9.3 6.2 52.3
Bolivia(2009) 10.9 -0.5 50.3 0.6 -0.3 6.6 63.2
DominicanRepublic(2013) 6.8 -0.9 50.2 2.2 -2.2 1.0 16.3
ElSalvador(2011) 4.3 -0.7 44.0 2.2 -2.1 1.0 27.0
Ethiopia(2011) 31.9 2.3 32.2 2.3 -2.0 28.5 83.2
Ghana(2013) 6.0 0.7 43.7 1.6 -1.4 5.1 76.6
Guatemala(2010) 12.0 -0.8 49.0 1.4 -1.2 7.0 62.2
Indonesia(2012) 12.0 -1.5 39.8 1.1 -0.8 4.1 39.2
SriLanka(2010) 5.0 -0.7 37.1 1.3 -1.1 1.6 36.4
Tanzania(2011) 43.7 7.9 38.2 4.1 -3.8 50.9 98.6
46
FiscalImpoverishment(MarkettoConsumableIncome)
HigginsandLustig (2016)
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• Fifteenoftheeighteencountrieswithareduction inpovertyandinequalityduetothetaxandtransfersystemexperiencedvariousdegreesoffiscalimpoverishment.• Intencountries—Armenia,Bolivia,Brazil,ElSalvador,Guatemala,Indonesia,Mexico,Russia,SriLanka,andTunisia—betweenone-quarterandtwo-thirdsofthepost-fisc poorlostincometothefiscalsystem.• Inthethreecountrieswheretheheadcountratiorose(Ethiopia,GhanaandTanzania),theproportionofthepoorwhowereimpoverishedbythefiscalsystemisstaggering(above75percent).• InArmenia,Ethiopia,Indonesia,Tunisia,andRussia,between25and50%arestillfiscallyimpoverishedwhenthemonetizedvalueofeducationandhealthservicesareincludedastransfers
47Lustig.2016.“TheSDG’s,DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor,”backgroundpaperfortheExpertGroupMeeting:“Strategiesforeradicatingpovertytoachievesustainabledevelopmentforall,”UnitedNations,NewYork,June.
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ØExtremecaremustbetakenwithemphasizingdomesticresourcemobilizationtoachieveSDGs
ØMustassesstheimpactonthepooroftaxandsubsidyreforms,otherwiseonemaybetakingawayfromthepoormorethanistransferredtothem
ØImpactonthepoorofincreasingtaxesrequirestheuseofadequateindicators;conventionalmeasuresofinequalityandpovertycanbeawfullymisleading
ØFiscalImpoverishmentIndexfulfillsalltherequirementstoobtainanaccurateassessmentoftheimpactoffiscalchangesonthepoor
48Lustig.2016.“TheSDG’s,DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor,”backgroundpaperfortheExpertGroupMeeting:“Strategiesforeradicatingpovertytoachievesustainabledevelopmentforall,”UnitedNations,NewYork,June.
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Howpro-poorisspendingoneducation
andhealth
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ClassificationA= Pro-poorandequalizing,percapitaspendingdeclineswithincome
B= Neutralinabsolutetermsandequalizing,samepercapitaforall
C= Equalizingbutnotpro-poor,percapitaspendingasashareofmarketincomedeclineswithincome
D= Unequalizing,percapitaspendingasashareofmarketincomeincreaseswithincome
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Progressivityandpro-poornessofeducationandhealthspending-Low-incomeeconomies
Source:Lustig(2016)
Low-incomeEconomies EducationPre-school Primary Secondary Tertiary Health
A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C D A B C
Ethiopia(2011) + -- + + + +
Tanzania(2011) -- + + + + +
-- =notavailable
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Progressivityandpro-poornessofeducationandhealthspending-Lower-middle-incomeeconomies
Source:Lustig(2016)
-- =notavailable
The image part with relationship ID rId2
Lower-middle-income
Economies EducationPre-school Primary Secondary Tertiary HealthA B C A B C A B C A B C A B C D A B C
Armenia(2011) + + + + +Bolivia(2009) + + + + + +ElSalvador(2011) + + + + + +Ghana(2013) + + + + +Guatemala(2011) + + + + + +Honduras(2011) + + + + + +Indonesia(2012) + + + + +SriLanka(2010) + -- -- -- + +Tunisia(2010) + -- -- -- + +
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Progressivityandpro-poornessofeducationandhealthspending–Upper-middle-incomeeconomies
Upper-middle-income
Economies EducationPre-
school Primary Secondary Tertiary HealthA B C A B C A B C A B C A B C D A B C D
Brazil(2009) + + + + + +Colombia(2010) -- + + + + --CostaRica(2010) -- + + + + --DominicanRepublic(2013) + + + + +Ecuador(2011) + -- + + -- +Georgia (2013) + + -- -- + +Jordan(2010) + + + + + +Mexico(2010) + + + + + +Peru(2009) + + + + + +Russia(2010) -- -- -- -- -- --SouthAfrica(2010) + + + + + +
-- =notavailable
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Source:Lustig(2016) 53
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Progressivityandpro-poornessofeducationandhealthspending–High-incomeeconomies
Source:Lustig(2016)
High-incomeEconomies Education
Pre-school Primary Secondary Tertiary Health
A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C D A B CArgentina(2012)* + + -- -- + +Chile(2013) + + + + + +Uruguay(2009) + + + + + +
-- =notavailable*unclassified
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Mainresults
ØEducationspendingonprimaryandsecondaryschoolingperpersontendstodeclinewithincome(“pro-poor”)orbethesameacrosstheincomedistribution…
Ø... withtheexceptionofEthiopiawherealthoughequalizing,percapitaspendingonsecondaryeducationincreaseswithincomeØAremiddle-classesoptingoutinmiddleandhighincomecountries?
ØTertiaryeducationspendingisnotpro-poorbutitisequalizingexceptforEthiopia,Ghana,GuatemalaandTanzania,whereitisunequalizing
55Source:Lustig (2016)
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Mainresults
ØHealthspendingperpersontendstodeclinewithincome(“pro-poor”)orbethesameacrosstheincomedistribution….
Ø….exceptforElSalvador,Ethiopia,Guatemala,Indonesia,Jordan,PeruandTanzaniawherealthoughnotunequalizing percapitaspendingincreaseswithincome.
56Source:Lustig (2016)
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Inconclusion…
• FiscalsystemsarealwaysequalizingbutcanoftenreducethepurchasingpowerofthepoorØWarning:unintendedconsequenceofthedomesticresourcemobilizationagendacanbemakingthepoorworseoff
• Spendingoneducationandhealthisoftenpro-poorandalmostuniversallyequalizingØWarning:isthisfavorableresultbecausemiddle-classesandtherichareoptingout?
• ReassuringresultsØRedistributiveeffectincreaseswithsocialspendingØSocialspendingasashareofGDPincreaseswithinequalityØThemoreunequal,themoreredistribution
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The image part with relationship ID rId2 Teamsandreferencesbycountry:
(inparenthesis:survey year;C=consumption&I=income)
1.Argentina (2012-13;I):Rossignolo,D.2016.“Taxes,Expenditures,PovertyandIncomeDistribution inArgentina.”CEQWorkingPaperNo.45,CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.(forthcoming).
Rossignolo,D.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook: Argentina,February29.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
2.Armenia (2011;I):Younger,StephenD.,andArtsvi Khachatryan.forthcoming.“FiscalIncidenceinArmenia,”in:Inchauste,G.,Lustig,N.(Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:ExperiencefromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C.(forthcoming).
Younger,S.andA.Khachatryan.2014.CEQMasterWorkbook: Armenia,May31.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
3.Bolivia(2009;I): PazArauco,Verónica,GeorgeGrayMolina,WilsonJiménezPozo,andErnestoYáñez Aguilar.2014.“ExplainingLowRedistributiveImpactinBolivia.”InLustig,Nora,Carola PessinoandJohnScott.2014.Editors.TheRedistributiveImpactofTaxesandSocialSpendinginLatinAmerica.SpecialIssue.PublicFinanceReview,May,Volume42,Issue3.(September22,2014).
PazArauco,V.,G.Gray-Molina,W.JimenezandE.Yañez.2014.CEQMasterWorkbook: Bolivia,September22,CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
4.Brazil(2008-09;I): Higgins,SeanandClaudiney Pereira.2014.“TheEffectsofBrazil’sTaxationandSocialSpendingontheDistributionofHousehold Income.”InLustig,Nora,Carola PessinoandJohnScott.2014.Editors.TheRedistributiveImpactofTaxesandSocialSpendinginLatinAmerica.SpecialIssue.PublicFinanceReview,May,Volume42,Issue3.(November4,2014).
Higgins,S.andC.Pereira.2016CEQMasterWorkbook: Brazil,January4.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
5.Chile (2013,I):Martínez-Aguilar,S.,A.FuchsandE.Ortiz-Juarez.2016.“TheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPovertyinChile.”CEQWorkingPaperNo.46,CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandWorldBank.(forthcoming).
Martínez-Aguilar,S.andE.Ortiz-Juarez.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook: Chile,inprogress.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandWorldBank.
6.Colombia (2010, I): Lustig,NoraandMarcelaMelendez.2015.“TheImpactofTaxesandTransfersonInequalityandPoverty inColombia”.CEQWorkingPaperNo24,CenterforInter-AmericanPolicyandResearchandDepartmentofEconomics,TulaneUniversityandInter-AmericanDialogue.Forthcoming.
Melendez,M.andV.Martínez.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook: Colombia,December17.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank.
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The image part with relationship ID rId2 Teamsandreferencesbycountry:
(inparenthesis:survey year;C=consumption&I=income)
7.CostaRica(2010;I): Sauma,JuanandDiegoTrejos. 2014.“Socialpublicspending,taxes,redistributionofincome,andpoverty inCostaRica.”CEQWorkingPaperNo.18,CenterforInter-AmericanPolicyandResearchandDepartmentofEconomics,TulaneUniversityandInter-AmericanDialogue.
Sauma,P.andJ.D.Trejos.2014.CEQMasterWorkbook: CostaRica,February.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
8.DominicanRepublic(2006-07,I):Aristy-Escuder,J.,M.Cabrera,B.Moreno-Dodson andM.E.Sánchez-Martín.2016.“FiscalpolicyandredistributionintheDominicanRepublic.”CEQWorkingPaperNo37,CEQInstitute.(forthcoming).Note:budgetarydatawasfor2013.
Aristy-Escuder,J.,M.Cabrera,B.Moreno-Dodson andM.E.Sánchez-Martín.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook: DominicanRepublic,May10.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
9.Ecuador (2011-12,I):Llerena Pinto,FreddyPaul,María ChristinaLlerena Pinto,RobertoCarlosSaá Daza,andMaría AndreaLlerena Pinto. “SocialSpending,TaxesandIncomeRedistributioninEcuador.”CEQWorkingPaperNo.28,CenterforInter-AmericanPolicyandResearchandDepartmentofEconomics,TulaneUniversityandInter-AmericanDialogue.
Llerena,F.,M.C.Llerena,M.A.Llerena andR.Saá.2014.CEQMasterWorkbook: Ecuador,November7.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
10.ElSalvador(2011;I):Beneke,M.andJ.A.Oliva.2015.CEQMasterWorbook: Elsalvador,July10.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandInstitutoCentroamericano deEstudios Fiscales andInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment.
11.Ethiopia (2011;C): Hill,Ruth,GabrielaInchauste,NoraLustig,EyasuTsehaye andTassewWoldehanna.forthcoming.“AFiscalIncidenceAnalysisforEthiopia,”in:Inchauste,G.,Lustig,N.(Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:ExperiencefromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C(forthcoming).
Hill,R.,E.Tsehaye andT.Woldehanna.2014.CEQMasterWorkbook: Ethiopia,September28.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
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The image part with relationship ID rId2
Teamsandreferencesbycountry:(inparenthesis:survey year;C=consumption&I=income)
12.European Union (2011,I): EUROMODstatisticsonDistributionandDecompositionofDisposableIncome,accessedathttp://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/euromod/statistics/usingEUROMODversionno.G2.0.
13.Georgia(2013;I):Cancho,CesarandElenaBondarenko.forthcoming.“TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicyinGeorgia,"in:Inchauste,G.,Lustig,N.(Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:ExperiencefromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C(forthcoming).
Cancho,C.andE.Bondarenko.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook:Georgia,December31.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
14.Ghana(2012-13;C):Younger,S.,E.Osei-AssibeyandF.Oppong.2015.“FiscalIncidenceinGhana.”CEQWorkingPaperNo.35,CenterforInter-AmericanPolicyandResearchandDepartmentofEconomics,TulaneUniversity,IthacaCollege,UniversityofGhanaandWorldBank.
Younger,S.,E.Osei-AssibeyandF.Oppong.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook: Ghana,February10.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
15.Guatemala(2011; I): Cabrera,MandH.E.Morán.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook:Guatemala,May6.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity,Instituto Centroamericano deEstudios Fiscales andInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment.
16.Honduras (2011; I):Castañeda,R.andI.Espino.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook: Honduras,August18.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity,Instituto Centroamericano deEstudios Fiscales andInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment.
Castañeda,R.andI.Espino.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook: Honduras,August18.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity,Instituto CentroamericanodeEstudios Fiscales andInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment.
17.Indonesia (2012;C):Afkar,Rythia,JonJellema,andMathewWai-Poi.forthcoming.“TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicyinIndonesia,”in:Inchauste,GabrielaandNoraLustig (Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:ExperiencefromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C(forthcoming).
Jellema,J.,M.Wai_Poi andR.Afkar.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook: Indonesia,February26.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
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Teamsandreferencesbycountry:(inparenthesis:survey year;C=consumption&I=income)
18.Jordan (2010-11;C):Alam,Shamma A.,GabrielaInchauste,andUmarSerajuddin.forthcoming.“TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicyinJordan,” in:Inchauste,G.,Lustig,N.(Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:ExperiencefromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C(forthcoming).
Abdel-Halim,M.,S.Adeeb Alam,Y.Mansur,U.Serajuddin andP.Verme.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook: Jordan,March8.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
19.Mexico (2010;C&I):Scott,John.2014.“RedistributiveImpactandEfficiencyofMexico’sFiscalSystem.”InLustig,Nora,CarolaPessino andJohnScott.2014.Editors.TheRedistributiveImpactofTaxesandSocialSpendinginLatinAmerica.SpecialIssue.PublicFinanceReview,May,Volume42,Issue3.(September2013).
Scott,J.2013.CEQMasterWorkbook:Mexico,September2.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
20.Peru (2009;I):Jaramillo,Miguel.2014.“TheIncidenceofSocialSpendingandTaxesinPeru.”InLustig,Nora,Carola Pessino andJohnScott.2014.Editors.TheRedistributiveImpactofTaxesandSocialSpending inLatinAmerica.SpecialIssue.PublicFinanceReview,May,Volume42,Issue3.(May1,2013).
Jaramillo,M.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook:Peru,August7.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
21.Russia(2010;I):Lopez-Calva,LuisF.,NoraLustig,MikhailMatytsin,andDaria Popova. forthcoming.“WhoBenefitsfromFiscalRedistributioninRussia?,”in:Inchauste,G.,Lustig,N.(Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:Experience fromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C.(forthcoming).
Malytsin,M.andD.Popova.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook:Russia,March17.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
22.SouthAfrica(2010-11;I):Inchauste,Gabriela,NoraLustig,Mashekwa Maboshe,CatrionaPurfield andIngridWollard.forthcoming.“TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicyinSouthAfrica,”in:Inchauste,G.,Lustig,N.(Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:Experience fromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C.(forthcoming).
Inchauste,G.,N.Lustig,M.Maboshe,C.Purfield,I.Woolard andP.Zikhali.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook: SouthAfrica,March6.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
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The image part with relationship ID rId2 Teamsandreferencesbycountry:
(inparenthesis:survey year;C=consumption&I=income)
23.SriLanka(2010;C):Arunatilake,Nisha,GabrielaInchauste andNoraLustig.forthcoming.“TheIncidenceofTaxesandSpendinginSriLanka,”in:Inchauste,G.,Lustig,N.(Eds.),TheDistributionalImpactofFiscalPolicy:ExperiencefromDevelopingCountries.WorldBank,Washington,D.C.(forthcoming).
Arunatilake,N.,C.Gomez,N.Perera andK.Attygalle.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook:SriLanka,March10.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandtheWorldBank.
24.Tanzania(2011-12;C): Younger,Stephen,FloraMyamba,andKennethMdadila.2016.“FiscalIncidenceinTanzania.”CEQWorkingPaperNo.36,Center forInter-AmericanPolicyandResearchandDepartmentofEconomics,TulaneUniversity,IthacaCollegeandREPOA.
Younger,S.,F.Myamba,andK.Mdadila.2016.CEQMasterWorkbook: Tanzania,June1st.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
25.Tunisia (2010,C):Shimeles,Abebe,AhmedMoummi,NizarJouini andNoraLustig.2016.“FiscalIncidenceandPoverty Reduction:EvidencefromTunisia,”CEQWorkingPaperNo.38,CommitmenttoEquityInstitute,TulaneUniversity.(forthcoming).
Shimeles,A.,A.Moummi,N.Jouini andN.Lustig.2015.CEQMasterWorkbook: Tunisia,October1.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversityandAfricanDevelopmentBank.
26.UnitedStates(2011,I):Higgins,Sean,NoraLustig,WhitneyRubleandTimothySmeeding (2015),“ComparingtheIncidenceofTaxesandSocialSpendinginBrazilandtheUnitedStates”,ReviewofIncomeandWealth,forthcoming.
27.Uruguay(2009;I):Bucheli,Marisa,NoraLustig,Máximo Rossi,andFlorenciaAmábile.2014.“SocialSpending,TaxesandIncomeRedistributioninUruguay.”In:Lustig,Nora,Carola PessinoandJohnScott.2014.Editors.TheRedistributiveImpactofTaxesandSocialSpendinginLatinAmerica.SpecialIssue.PublicFinanceReview,May,Volume42,Issue3.(August18,2014)
Bucheli,M.,N.Lustig,M.RossiandF.Amábile.2014.CEQMasterWorkbook: Uruguay,August18.CEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
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The image part with relationship ID rId2 AdditionalReferences:
• Enami,LustigandAranda.“AnalyticalFoundations: MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.”ChapterinLustig(editor)CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimatingtheImpactofFiscal PolicyonInequalityandPoverty,BrookingsInstitutionPressandTulaneUniversity, forthcoming.
• Higgins,S.andN.Lustig. 2016.Canapoverty-reducing andprogressive taxandtransfersystemhurtthepoor? JournalofDevelopmentEconomics122,63-75.
• Higgins,S.,N.Lustig,W.RubleandT.Smeeding.2015.“ComparingtheIncidenceofTaxesandSocialSpending inBrazilandtheUnitedStates.”ReviewofIncomeandWealth,Published OnlineMay24,2015,DOI:10.1111/roiw.12201
• Lustig,Nora.2016.“FiscalPolicy, Inequality, andthePoorintheDevelopingWorld.”TulaneUniversity,EconomicsWorking Paper1612,October.
• ----------. 2016.“TheSDG’s,DomesticResourceMobilizationandthePoor,”backgroundpaperfortheExpertGroupMeeting:“Strategiesforeradicatingpovertytoachievesustainabledevelopment forall,”BacgroundpaperfortheWorldDevelopmentReport2017GovernanceandtheLaw.
• ---------- “InequalityandFiscalRedistribution inMiddleIncomeCountries:Brazil,Chile, Colombia, Indonesia,Mexico,PeruAndSouthAfrica.”JournalofGlobalizationandDevelopment.Forthcoming.
• --------- “TheRedistributive ImpactofGovernmentSpending onEducationandHealth:Evidencefrom13DevelopingCountries intheCommitment toEquityProject”Chapter17in Gupta,Sanjeev,MichaelKeen,BenedictClements andRuuddeMooij, editors,InequalityandFiscalPolicy,Washington:InternationalMonetaryFund, 2015.
• ----- andS.Higgins.Forthcoming.“TheCEQAssessment:MeasuringtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty.”InLustig,editor,CommitmenttoEquityHandbook.AGuidetoEstimatingtheImpactofFiscalPolicyonInequalityandPoverty,Brookings InstitutionPressandCEQInstitute,TulaneUniversity.
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Thankyou!
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