fish is (also) food guttormsen... · a record level of 19 kg per capita in 2011 we need more fish...
TRANSCRIPT
27.11.12
1
2111 2005
FISH IS (also) FOOD
Professor Atle G. Guttormsen
Oslo, 2012
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
MY STARTING POINT: The world’s oceans covers 2/3 of the planet…
27.11.12
2
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
…and the world’s waterways and oceans is a great underutilized resource
Increasingly, land-based technologies are adopted to use this resource – Offshore drilling
– Minerals
Aquaculture is the “food production” arm of this development – Aquaculture is farming while fisheries is our last large
hunting industry
Aquaculture is an old technology, but a revolution took place in the 1970s as one started to use knowledge from agro-sciences to domesticate, breed and feed fish
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISH IS IMPORTANT FOOD
Two roles: Direct consumption and income (Smith et al, 2010)
Seafood contributes at least 15% of average animal protein consumption to 4.3 billion people worldwide
In 2009 aquatic animal foods accounted for 6.5% of all plant & animal protein consumed
27.11.12
3
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISH IS IMPORTANT FOOD
Fisheries and aquaculture directly employed 44.9 million people in 2008
An estimated total of 540 million people deriving their livelihoods from seafood-related industries
Per capita consumption of seafood reached a record level of 19 kg per capita in 2011
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
WE NEED MORE FISH
Depending on assumptions, projected global demand for seafood is between 138 and 159 Million Tons (MT) by 2025.
Aquaculture production would then need to be between 74 and 100 MT by 2025, an increase of 22 or 42 MT from 2008 levels
FISH IS FO
OD
6
27.11.12
4
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISH IS FO
OD
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Additional demand if consumption increases at same rate as from 1975-2008
Additional demand if consumption stable at 2008 level - 17.2 kg/capita whole fish
Aquaculture production less plants (assume stable production past 2008 - 52 Mt)
Capture production less non-food (assume stable production past 2008 - 64Mt)
Global Seafood Requirements (million tonnes)Projections based on Medium popn estimates from UN ‘08 Revision - 9 billion by 2050
World needs 138 & 159 Mt by 2025 & 2050 if consumpt at 2008 level
World needs 164 & 232 Mt by 2025 & 2050 if consumpt increases
. Therefore need 74 & 95 Mt from aqua (extra 22 & 42 from 2008 prod) at 2008 consumpt & stable capture
Need 100 & 167 Mt from aqua (extra 48 & 116 from 2008 prod if consumpt increases)
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
THE SEAFOOD MARKET IS CHANGING
Seafood markets have gone through a revolution the last 25 years
The market today is completely different from the market in 1985
Production is different
Species is different
Number of products has expanded
The level of trade is different
But are prices different?
FISH IS FO
OD
8
27.11.12
5
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
TRADITIONAL SEAFOOD PRODUCTION IN NORWAY
,
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SEAFOOD PRODUCTION TODAY
27.11.12
6
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
BUT EVEN MORE
11
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
AND IN CHINA
FISH IS FO
OD
12
27.11.12
7
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISHERIES HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN THE MAIN AQUATIC FOOD PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY:
FISH IS FO
OD
13 0
30
60
90
120
150
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Global fish landings
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISHERIES PRODUCTION HAS PEAKED
Better management can improve predictability and create more value
There is very limited scope for known fisheries resources and thereby fisheries to increase the role of the oceans and waterways as a source of food
FISH IS FO
OD
14
27.11.12
8
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
WORLD AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION
Million tonnes
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
WORLD SEAFOOD PRODUCTION
Million tonnes
27.11.12
9
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
TOP 10 SEAFOOD CONSUMED IN THE US 2000 vs. 2010
FISH IS FO
OD
17
Rank 2000 pounds per capita 2010 pounds per capita 1 Canned Tuna 3.50 Shrimp 4.00 2 Shrimp 3.20 Canned Tuna 2.70 3 Pollock 1.59 Salmon 1.99 4 Salmon 1.58 Tilapia 1.45 5 Cathfish 1.00 Pollock 1.19 6 Cod 0.75 Catfish 0.80 7 Clams 0.47 Crab 0.57 8 Crabs 0.38 Cod 0.46 9 Flatfish 0.42 Pangasius 0.41 10 Scallops 0.27 Clams 0.34
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
GLOBAL PER CAPITA FOOD FISH SUPPLY: AQUACULTURE IS ALREADY AS IMPORTANT AS WILD FISH
0 %
25 %
50 %
75 %
100 %
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Capture
Aquaculture
27.11.12
10
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SEAFOOD MARKETS ARE CHANGING EXAMPLE: The Whitefish market
The whitefish market is one of the largest seafood market segments – Ca 6 million tonnes if only the main wild species are
included
– Ca 13 million tonnes if all species including aquaculture are included
From 1980 the market has changed from a regional north Atlantic market to a global market
The size of the market and a large number of processed product forms makes it an easy market to enter for new species
FISH IS FO
OD
19
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
NEW SPECIES IN THE WHITEFISH MARKET
Until 1985 Cod,
haddock, saithe, etc.
1990: Alaska Pollock Catfish
2005: Pangasius
ca 2005 ca 2000
2000: New warm water species like tilapia and Nile Perch
ca 1995 ca 1990 ca 1900 - 1985
1995: Hake Hoki
27.11.12
11
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
US IMPORTS OF FROZEN WHITEFISH, 1990-2008 (tonnes product weight)
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
AN IMPORTANT REASON FOR THE DEVELOPMENT: Market share by value of fish retail in the UK, 1988-2003
020406080
100120
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Supermarkets Market stallsMongers Other outlets
Source: Sea Fisheries Industry Authority (SFIA)
27.11.12
12
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
NEW AQUACULTURE SPECIES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WHITEFISH MARKET…
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
. t
onn
es
Wild Aquaculture
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
… AS THEY ALREADY DOMINATE THE SALMON MARKET
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mill
. to
nn
es
Wild Farmed
Source: NSEC, FAO, own estimates
27.11.12
13
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
25
TILAPIA GLOBAL PRODUCTION
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 500
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
E
2013
E
2014
E
REAL PRICE (USD/KG)
1000 METRIC TONNES
Sources: 1990-‐2010: FAO; 2011-‐2014: Kevin Fitzsimmons ; Prices US import frozen fillet: NMFS. Note: Prices are January-‐December averages, except for 2012 (January-‐August average)
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
CONDITIONS FAVORING INCREASED AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION
Population growth and economic growth lead to increased aggregate demand for food
Stagnating global catches of fish reduce the competitiveness of wild fish
Globalization has reduced the cost of shipping products and increased trade
The growth of retail chains favor supply chains with sufficient control to enable efficient logistics
27.11.12
14
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
CONDITIONS FAVORING INCREASED AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION
Population growth and economic growth lead to increased aggregate demand for food
Stagnating global catches of fish reduce the competitiveness of wild fish
Globalization has reduced the cost of shipping products and increased trade
The growth of retail chains favor supply chains with sufficient control to enable efficient logistics
To exploit these conditions, one must be competitive AQUACULTURE IS COMPETITIVE
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
AQUACULTURE IS COMPETITIVE
Aquaculture is the result of systematic R&D and innovation in water based food production systems
Expansion of aquaculture production is profitable because of lower production cost due to technical innovations – Productivity growth – Demand growth
This is a necessary development if the world’s oceans and waterways are to be significant sources of food
27.11.12
15
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
INNOVATIONS ARE LEADING TO RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
Specialiced suppliers increase productivity with their own R&D work
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
INNOVATIONS INCREASE SCALE -a salmon pen from 1980 and one from 2010
5 m 50 m
27.11.12
16
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
IMPROVED LOGISTICS
Air freight
Truck carries chilled fish
Distribution terminals
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
PRODUCT INNOVATION INCREASE DEMAND
Branded salmon
Pre-prepared meals
Better cuts
27.11.12
17
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
NORWEGIAN EXPORT PRICE AND PRODUCTION COST FOR SALMON 1985-2011 (2011=1)
27.11.12
18
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
NORWEGIAN EXPORT PRICE AND PRODUCTION COST FOR SALMON 1985-2011 (2011=1)
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
NORWEGIAN EXPORT PRICE AND PRODUCTION COST FOR SALMON 1985-2011 (2011=1)
27.11.12
19
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SHRIMP PRODUCTION AND REAL US IMPORT PRICE (2008=1)
0500
100015002000
25003000
35004000
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
US
D/
kg
02
468
1012
1416
10
00
ton
s
QuantityPrice
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
PANGASIUS PRODUCTION IN VIETNAM, EXPORTPRICE IN USD (2008=1)
27.11.12
20
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
THE FUTURE OF AQUACULTURE
Aquaculture production will continue to increase – Because one have just started
to adopt technology from agriculture, and there is a tremendous scope for further productivity growth
As for all biological production processes, this creates environmental challenges
– Can be solved
– North-America and EU lags behind
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
THE FOUR MAJOR FARMED SPECIES (Chinese Karp excluded)
FISH IS FO
OD
40 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1,0
00
to
nn
Pangasius
Laks
Tilapia
Shrimp
27.11.12
21
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SEAFOOD TRADE
Adjusted for inflation, trade value has increased threefold from 1976 to 2006 from 28.3 billion USD to 86.4 billion USD
During the same period the traded volume has increased from 7.9 million tones to 31.3 million tonnes, or almost fourfold
Hence, the unit value of the seafood has decreased, increasing seafood’s competitiveness as a food source
Aquaculture
FISH IS FO
OD
41
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
39% of seafood production is traded
77% is exposed to trade
competition
27.11.12
22
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
Trade induces competition for seafood almost everywhere – also for seafood that is not traded
1. ‘Exportable’ seafood that is not exported
– Domestic producer receive a higher price at home than in export markets
2. Domestic seafood exposed to competition from imported seafood
– Domestic producers receive and consumers pay a lower price
The supermarket revolution facilitates price competition, as supermarkets now reach many urban poor in developing countries
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SEAFOOD EXPORT REVENUES ($)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Bil
l US
D Developing
Developed
Source: FAO
27.11.12
23
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISH AVAILABLE FOR CONSUMPTION THROUGH IMPORTS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
Developing
Developed
Source: FAO
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
Real value 1990: 24.5 billion USD
27.11.12
24
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
Real value 1990: 24.5 billion USD 2011: 39.7 billion USD
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SO WHAT ABOUT PRICES?
FISH IS FO
OD
48
27.11.12
25
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
WHAT IS THE PRICE OF FISH?
The price of fresh fish on the harbor in Barcelona?
Frozen filet of cod?
Farmed Tilapia in the Philippines?
Sushi in Tokyo?
Canned tuna?
FISH IS FO
OD
49
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
THE FAO FISH PRICE INDEX, FPI
In 2011, FAO expanded its coverage of terrestrial food to include a full coverage of seafood by introducing the Fish Price Index (FPI)
– FPI had a trial period in 2010 with more limited information about seafood
This means that seafood – including fish – is now receiving coverage similar to that received by the main groups of terrestrial food products
– Is gradually being included also in the aggregated indexes
FISH IS FO
OD
50
Tveterås S, Asche F, Bellemare MF, Smith MD, Guttormsen, AG (2012) Fish Is Food - The FAO’s Fish Price Index. PLoS ONE 7(5)
27.11.12
26
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FPI IS A GLOBAL PRICE INDEX
Based on fish and seafood import data to EU, Japan and USA from Jan 1990 to the present (currently oct 2012)
The index includes only fish and crustaceans and the following product formats:
– Fresh
– Frozen
– Whole
– Filleted
– Peeled
No products with additional processing are included with the exception of canned tuna.
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
THE FAO FISH PRICE INDEX (FPI)
27.11.12
27
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
AQUACULTURE AND WILD CATCH
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Total Aquaculture Capture
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FPI CAN BE SPLIT INTO MORE DETAILED SUB-INDICES
This gives a tool to investigate
– how seafood markets in different countries and regions are linked
– how prices for different species and product forms influence each other
– how seafood compare to other food markets
– how cost factors in fisheries and aquaculture (e.g. fuel, feed) influence seafood prices
– Etc.
27.11.12
28
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SIMILAR LONG-TERM PRICE TRENDS SUGGESTS ONE GLOBAL MARKET FOR FISH
But trends and volatility depends on production technology
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
SOME SPECIES GROUPS HAVE MORE VARIATION
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230 Other fish White fish Salmon Shrimp Pelagic e/tuna Tuna
27.11.12
29
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
THE LINK BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL AND FISH PRICES?
Fish is food, but it is hard to find significant cross price elasticities between seafood and other food
Feed for salmon and feed for chicken and poultry have a lot in common
Aquaculture makes seafood more and more like traditional farming
Product development makes fishproducts more convenient and in that way more similar to traditional meat
FISH IS FO
OD
57
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISH IS FO
OD
58
27.11.12
30
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
GLOBAL FARMED MEAT PRODUCTION
FISH IS FO
OD
59
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
Figure 6. The FPI together with the traditional FAO food price indices.
Tveterås S, Asche F, Bellemare MF, Smith MD, et al. (2012) Fish Is Food - The FAO’s Fish Price Index. PLoS ONE 7(5): e36731. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0036731 http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0036731
27.11.12
31
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Oct
200
2 ap
r.03
Oct
200
3 ap
r.04
Oct
200
4 ap
r.05
Oct
200
5 ap
r.06
Oct
200
6 ap
r.07
Oct
200
7 ap
r.08
Oct
200
8 ap
r.09
Oct
200
9 ap
r.10
Oct
201
0 ap
r.11
Oct
201
1 ap
r.12
Oct
201
2
Salmon Chicken
FISH IS FO
OD
61
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Oct
200
2 ap
r.03
Oct
200
3 ap
r.04
Oct
200
4 ap
r.05
Oct
200
5 ap
r.06
Oct
200
6 ap
r.07
Oct
200
7 ap
r.08
Oct
200
8 ap
r.09
Oct
200
9 ap
r.10
Oct
201
0 ap
r.11
Oct
201
1 ap
r.12
Oct
201
2
Salmon Chicken Shrimp
FISH IS FO
OD
62
27.11.12
32
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FEED INGREDIENTS
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Oct
200
2 ju
ni.0
3 fe
b.04
O
ct 2
004
juni
.05
feb.
06
Oct
200
6 ju
ni.0
7 fe
b.08
O
ct 2
008
juni
.09
feb.
10
Oct
201
0 ju
ni.1
1 fe
b.12
O
ct 2
012
Fishmeal
Corn
FISH IS FO
OD
63
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
In Asia large areas are converted from ricefield to fish ponds
FISH IS FO
OD
64
27.11.12
33
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
FISH POND IN BANGLADESH
FISH IS FO
OD
65
NO
RW
EGIAN
UN
IVERSITY O
F LIFE SCIENCES
www.umb.no
COD PRICES AND QUANTITY LAST 12 years
MATVAR
EINFLASJO
N, Får vi et prisløft på fisk?
66