five key trends - u.s. travel association · amazon (15% of market share) vs. flipkart (44% of...

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Five Key Trends

Five Key Trends

• Three out of Four

• 83 million per year

• One million per week

• 4.9 billion

• Under 30

Three out of Four

Three out of Four - World Population 7.35 Billion

• Asia – 4.39 billion

• Africa – 1.186 billion

• Europe – 738 m

• LAC – 634 m

• North America – 360 m

• Oceania – 39 m

Population - 2030

• Africa will add another 500 million people

• Asia will add another 600 million people

• Europe will shrink by 4 million

• North America will add 60 million people

Three out of Four - Asiafrica

83 million

Where are the 83 million?

Dubai Mall – 83 million

One million per week

Our Urban World

The World Today

54% Urban

The World in 2050

66% Urban

Africa in 1950 – 3 cities of one million

Africa today – 50+ cities of one million

One million per week

Cities as Economic Engines

4.9 billion by 2030

4.9 billion (by 2030)

4.9 billion by 2030

4.9 billion (by 2030)

The Shifting Global Middle Class

Brookings Institution scholar Homi Kharas estimates that the European and American middle classes will shrink from 50 percent of the total to just 22 percent.

Rapid growth in China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia will cause Asia’s share of the new middle to more than double from its current 30%. By 2030, Asia will host 64% of the global middle class and account for over 40% of global middle-class consumption.

Huawei – Nancy Ajram

Winning the War on Poverty

25 years ago:

• 37% of humanity lived below the poverty line

• Today, 9%

1990 East Asia and Pacific:

• 60% lived below

poverty line

• Today, 7.2%

1990 South Asia:

• 50.6% of world lived below poverty line

• Today, below 15%

Under 30

$56 trillion (by 2030)

Middle Class Spending

Family Travel: Emerging Middle Classes

According to research, a family trip is the second highest priority for emerging middle classes, after

buying a car

Source: World Economic Forum, Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report, 2015

International Family Travel: Room for Growth

• Across 9 key emerging markets, a Credit Suisse study found that just 8% of holidays are international trips

• Brazil, China, and Turkey growing rapidly and may have “passed an inflection point”

• India and Indonesia travelers also increasing rapidly

7 billion mobile phone subscriptions globally

9.2 billion by 2019

80% of those will be mobile broadband

2 billion smart phones today

5.6 billion smart phones by 2019

Smartphone Boom

Top Smartphone Vendors in China

Smartphone Wars

Three years ago, Samsung had 1/3 of the global market share for smart phones.

Today, Samsung has 1/5; Apple has 1/7.

Rankings

1. Samsung

2. Apple

3. Huawei

4. Xiaomi

5. Lenovo

E-Commerce Exploding

Alibaba-stan• 600 Million Subscribers

• $250 bln annual transactions

• $25 billion IPO – historic

• Nearly 3.5 mill selling products

• $14 billion in sales in one day- November 11, 2015

• Ali-pay, secure payments system, handles $780 blnin transactions yearly

The India Prize

Amazon (15% of market share)

Vs.

Flipkart (44% of market share)

Vs.

Snapdeal

Key Investors in Flipkart: Tiger Global Management, AccelPartners, Naspers

$15 billion valuation

Amazon Prediction: India will be its next biggest market after the U.S within a decade

The Car Share Wars

UBER

LYFT

DIDI CHUXING (China)

OLA (India)

GrabTaxi (SE Asia)

Careem (Dubai)

Emerging Market Growth

Air Traffic Growth

• US = 2%

• Asia-Pacific and Africa = 6-7%• Middle East = 10%+

Global Destination Cities 2016

Source: MasterCard 2015 Global Destination Cities Index

International Visitors to the U.S and Projections

Source: International Trade Administration

International Travelers to the USRank Country of Origin Number of Tourists Rate

1 Canada 20,704,701 26.7%

2 Mexico 18,413,649 23.8%

3 United Kingdom 4,900,823 6.3%

4 Japan 3,758,297 4.8%

5 China 2,591,333 3.3%

6 Germany 2,271,820 2.9%

7 Brazil 2,218,883 2.9%

8 South Korea 1,764,871 2.3%

9 France 1,752,611 2.3%

10 Australia 1,450,113 1.9%

Top 10 Total 59,827,101 77.2%

Total

International

US Visitation

77,510,282 100%

Source: 2015 U.S. Dept. of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office Report

International Student Nationalities

Rank Country of Origin Number of Students Rate

1 China 304,040 31.2%

2 India 132,888 13.6%

3 South Korea 63,710 6.5%

4 Saudi Arabia 59,945 6.1%

5 Canada 27,240 2.8%

6 Brazil 23,675 2.4%

7 Chinese Taipei 20,993 2.2%

8 Japan 19,064 2.0%

9 Vietnam 18,722 1.9%

10 Mexico 17,052 1.7%

Source: 2015 Institute of International Education at Project Atlas

Top US Destination Cities for International Travelers

Rank City # of Tourists

(000)

Rate

1 New York City, NY 10,132 26.4%

2 Miami, FL 5,509 14.4%

3 Los Angeles, CA 4,857 12.7%

4 Orlando, FL 4,718 12.3%

5 San Francisco, CA 3,632 9.5%

6 Las Vegas, NV 3,409 8.9%

7 Honolulu, HI 2,380 6.2%

8 Washington, DC 2,135 5.6%

9 Chicago, IL 1,620 4.2%

10 Boston, MA 1,609 4,2%


Top US Destination States for International TravelersRank State Number of Tourists

(000)

Rate

1 New York 10,385 27.1%

2 Florida 9,667 25.2%

3 California 8,139 21.2

4 Nevada 3,505 9.1%

5 Hawaii 3,021 7.9%

6 Texas 1,789 4.7%

7 Massachusetts 1,789 4.7%

8 Illinois 1,708 4.5%

9 Guam 1,505 3.9%

10 Arizona 1,044 2.&%


North America Destination Cities


• China – 129%

• India – 47%

• Taiwan – 39%

• South Korea – 36%

• Australia – 27%

• Decliners:

• Venezuela – -25%

• Argentina – -15%

The Next Wave of Tourists/Travelers: Forecast Growth from 2014-2020

Chinese Tourism

• 2000 10 million• 2015 120 million $215 billion spent• 2019 174 million $264 billion forecast

“China Speed”

• Fastest growing outbound tourism market in the world

• Now accounts for 11% of global tourism expenditures

“China Size”

• Top spenders in international travel and tourism since 2012

• Top source market for international tourists worldwide

• 2014: 2.19 million

• 2015: 2.56 million

• 129% forecast growth from 2014-2020

• By 2020, China will be #3 behind Canada and Mexico

Source: ITA Travel and Tourism Market Report, 2015

Chinese Travel to the U.S.

China and U.S Travel Bottom Line

~ $58 million a day injected into local economies around the country, an investment that supported more than 109,000 U.S. jobs Source: ITA Travel and Tourism Market Report

• $35,000 per year household spurs travel

• Between 2003-13, 21 million crossed that mark

• By 2023, another 61 million

China’s growing middle class and travel

India Traveler

Source: National Travel and Tourism Office2014 Market Profile: India

Brazil Traveler

Source: National Travel and Tourism Office2014 Market Profile: Brazil

Targeting Cities

Cities Are the Economic Engines of the World and host to urban consumers and travelers

New York’s Top 5 Feeder Cities 2015


LA’s Top 5 Feeder Cities 2015


Miami’s Top 5 Feeder Cities 2015


So, What Could Go Wrong?

The Uprisings – “How am I supposed to make a living?”

Where are we?

Syria Refugee Crisis

The Middle East/West Asia

ISIS/ISIL/ “Islamic State”

Geopolitical Flash Points

Geopolitical Flashpoints

Geopolitical Flashpoints

• China hard landing• South China Sea Tensions• North Korea Nuclear• Venezuela implosion• ISIS continued attacks in West• Putin adventurism in Eastern Europe leading to NATO

showdown• US presidential elections• European elections and the rise of populist nationalism

and protectionism• Gathering tide of anti-globalization sentiment

Dubai World Central

21

Dubai Trade, Logistics, Finance and

Tourism Hub Dubai Logistics Corridor (DLC)

SEAPORT

FREEZONE

AIRPORT

Dubai 1978

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Dubai – 1980s

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Dubai Today

Emirates Airlines - 1985

Emirates Today

Over 160,000 seats per day

Boston and Kiev will be

operated by the end of

FY2013/14

134 destinations in 6 continents

15 new destinations launched in 2012

Emirates route map - 2013

UAE Geography

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