1

U.K. MoDU.K. MoDU.K. MoDU.K. MoD

Military OperationsOther Than

War

Military OperationsOther Than

War

Flexible Asymmetric Simulation TechnologiesFlexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies

A Toolbox for Warriors

CDN-DNDCDN-DND U.S. DoDU.S. DoD

Presentation Elements

• Describe the need and goals for the OOTW FAST Toolbox

• Describe the components of the Toolbox• Describe the training required to use the Toolbox

components and recap the reasons for including each component

• Describe the current status of the Toolbox

Warfighter OOTW M&S NeedsUNITED STATES

ATLANTIC COMMAND

U S MOCA

OOTW: A Top Warfighter M&S Need -- Current tools don’t cut it!

• ...M&S tools today to train 4-star lead JTF for OOTW. Current models do not provide the capability to train to all missions … particularly non-force-on-force, peacekeeping OOTW (EUCOM).

• COCOM battle staffs currently lack a federated simulation that provides the detailed resolution needed in today’s asymmetrical warfare environment (JFCOM).

• A standardized, collaborative and distributed crisis action planning tool for analyzing COA, especially in areas of OOTW and SASO (PACOM, TRAC).

• A model that can be used for disaster relief, refugee planning, peacekeeping, counter-drug and stability operations (SOUTHCOM).

• OOTW Simulation for SOF missions (SOCOM).

OOTW Challenges

Combating TerrorismHumanitarian AssistanceShow of Force OperationsNoncombatant EvacuationsMilitary Support to Civil AuthoritiesDoD Support to Counter Drug OpsNation Assistance/Support to CounterinsurgencyPeace Operations: Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq…to name a few

… represents half of OOTW types in JP 3-07

OOTW Concept

Provide thewarfighter with M&S tools in a rucksack that support their

MOOTW missions

Vision

Design FAST in a laptop for tools to complement one

another across the levels of war sharing

data via XML

Strategy

MOOTW FAST Toolbox Goals

• Incrementally enhance toolbox functionality– Initial support by leveraging readily available tools– Add tools and functionality as funding, priorities and concepts allow– Functions should eventually cover OOTW Taxonomy/Technical

Dimensions

• Provide on the ground and reachback support to users• Provide access to authoritative force & C4I data and support the

rapid update of scenario files• Provide automation support for time consuming, normally

manual operations, enabling its use in the most demanding of situations

• Support analysis and decision making, without forcing results onthe user

Bringing It All Together: the Controller

• Unifies the FAST Toolbox• Provides

– Central launch point for tools– Links to related OOTW web sites– Repository for tool data and associated

documents of all types– Tool meta-data (i.e., data about the data)

• User friendly• Reduces operator processing time

Unit Order of Battle (UOB)

• Supplies authoritative force data• Supports use of C4I extract data

– Imports & exports data in XMLfor use by Toolbox models/applications

– Provides data for FAST ForceStructure DIF

• Provides force tailoring, aggregation, comparison, and other force data manipulation support

• User friendly• Reduces time over manual processes

Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS)

• High resolution, stochastic model for training and mission rehearsal

• Can support OOTW analysis at the tactical level– Represents many, but not all, OOTW functions– Combat-like actions within MOOTW (e.g., peace enforcement, counter-

insurgency)– Logistics and transportation actions

complement OOTW low resolutionmodels (e.g., DIAMOND)

– Models down to the individual level

• Supports data output and analysis• Runs interactively and in batch mode• Sophisticated Tool

– Requires dedicated support to use, due to high-level skill set needs

Diplomatic and Military Operations in a Non-warfighting Domain-US (DIAMOND-US)

• Low resolution, stochastic model for OOTW analysis at the operational and tactical levels of war– Peace support, humanitarian and gross

combat actions– Represents most, but not all, OOTW

functions– Logistics and transportation actions– Corps down to battalion level

• Supports data output and analysis• Runs interactively and in batch mode• Sophisticated Tool

– Requires moderate to high-level skill set to use

Interim Static Stability Model (ISSM)

to 3283

to 3780

to 4187

to 4688

to 2282

to 386

to 1089

to 5692

Human rightsare protected

35

Police aredistinct fromthe military

45

Prison structureis adequate

49

Drug cultivationis not a problem

65Drug manufactureis not a problem

66Drug transshipment

is not a problem

67

Organized crimeis not a problem

69Common crimeis not a problem

73

Drug useis not a problem

72

Justice

to 5276

to 3078

to 3777

to 875

Armed forces arewell structured

4

Competing groupsresolve differences

11

Opposition partydoes not

espouse force

59

There haven'tbeen any

paramilitary forces

60There haven't been

any regime-sponsored,non-military armed forces

61

There are nofactional disputes

74

Conflict

to 3100

to 36101

Water distributioninfrastructureis sufficient

58

Needs

to 1118

to 29120

to 8119

to 42116

to 52117

International mediahave open access to

the reporting of events

38Government does not

control domestic media'sreporting of events

28Education

infrastructureis adequate

20

People's spiritualneeds are met

44Education system

is structuredtoward jobs

21

Misc

Basic naturalresource management

is in place

5

People perceivethat their interestsare represented

43

to 10106

to 29107

to 41108

to 52109

to 22110

to 32104

to 42105

Property ownershipissues are resolved

50

Stress migrationis not present

54

There are noexpatriates

62

There is nodisplacedpopulation

63

Movement

to 1893

to 2695

to 4294

to 1996

to 3297

to 4798

to 4899

Foreigninvestmentis available

27

Economyto 34113Core

to 1112

to 39114

to 53115

There areno migrants

64

to 4679

to 36111

to 18103

to 46102

to 2985

to 4284

to 5281

Financialsystemis solid

71

to 1590

to 2591

Opposition partydoesn't attempt todominate by force

40

Government-runmilitary is effective

31

Regime-sponsored,non-military armed forces

are demobilized

51

Paramilitary forcesare not present

41

Demobilized armedforces are

integrated into society

16

Disarmamentis effective

17

Healthrequirements

are met

33

Potable wateris sufficient

48

Food issufficient

26

Healthinfrastructureis adequate

32

Housing stockis sufficient

34

Expatriots returnto country

24

Population is notforced to move

46

Changes in populationcomposition improve

outlook

7

Population isfree to move

47

Displaced populationdecreases

18

Migrants leavecountry

39

Energy supplyand distributionare sufficient

23

Agricultural systemis productive

3

Telecominfrastructure

is in place

55

Critical industriesare sound

15

Tourism industryis robust

56

Financial systemis sufficient

25

Efficient marketsare in place

22

Acceptable jobsare available

1

Transportationinfrastructure

is in place

57

Commercial sectorcontributes to

national welfare

10

Civil (internal) unrestis not present

8

Safe and secureenvironment is

perceived

52Immediate needs

of the peopleare satisfied

36

Government hasdomestic legitimacy

29 People aretolerant of the

status quo

42

Institutions ofgovernance areeffective and fair

37

Economy issound

19

Civil stability anddurable peace exists

9

Crime is nota problem

70

Corruption insocial servicesis not rampant

14

Corruption incentral authorityis not rampant

12

Administration ofjustice is effective

and fair

2

Central authorityis effective

6

Government policeforce is effective

against crime

30

Corruption inlaw enforcementis not rampant

13

Social servicesare adequate

53

Drug crimeis not a problem

68

Date 12/01/02 Scenario Name:

"Neutral" Value Variable SectorLow High Value

-4.00 4.00 .50 - 1.00 2.25 Output:

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00 Input:-3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00

-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 -2.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 3.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 3.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 1.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

Basic natural resource management is in place

Water distribution infrastructure is sufficientNeeds

Iraq - Immediately Post War

There are no migrants

Movement

Property ownership issues are resolvedStress migration is not presentThere are no expatriatesThere is no displaced population

People perceive that their interests are representedPeople's spiritual needs are met

Misc

Education infrastructure is adequateEducational system is tailored toward jobsGovernment does not control domestic media's reporting of eventsInternational media have open access to the reporting of events

Common crime is not a problem

Justice

Foreign investment is availableFinancial system is solidHuman rights are protectedPolice are distinct from the militaryPrison structure is adequateDrug cultivation is not a problemDrug manufacture is not a problemDrug transshipment is not a problemDrug use is not a problemOrganized crime is not a problem

Range

Economy

Conflict

Armed forces are well structuredCompeting groups resolve differencesOpposition party does not espouse forceThere haven't been any paramilitary forces

There haven't been any regime-sponsored, non-military armed forcesThere are no factional disputes

Civil stability and durable peace exists

Stability & Peace Plus Core Values

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

12/25/01 2/13/02 4/4/02 5/24/02 7/13/02 9/1/02 10/21/02 12/10/02 1/29/03

Date

Stab

ility

Val

ue

uppermiddlelowerStability & peaceNo civil unrestEconomy is soundGovernment has domestic legitimacyPeople's immediate needs are metGovernment is effective and fairPeople tolerate the status quoPeople feel safe and secure

• Supports OOTW analysis at the operational and strategic levels– Depicts peace support and humanitarian results– Provides static view of current and past situations in terms of peace and

stability – Represents most, but not all, OOTW functions

• Supports data output and analysis– Data can be used in consonance

with other analytical tools(e.g., DIAMOND)

• Runs interactively• Unsophisticated tool

– Requires Excel expertiseand is user friendly

Canadian Forces Landmine Database (CFLD)

• Supports MOOTW training and operational employment at the tactical level– Designed for individual soldier

• Supplies pictorial and text data on 350 landmines

• Allows cross referencing search of database by description, country of origin, or use

• Runs interactively• Unsophisticated tool

– Basic design and is user friendly

Reliability and Speed: XML Technology

• eXtensible Markup Language (XML) provides the language that can define all of the parts of the tool data, including the DataInterchange Format (DIF) for files

• XML Populated DIF (XPOD) provides data files with validated formats– Improves reliability & reduces error

rates in tool use

– Supports automated data transfer

– Provides decreased human processing

time

• XML technology is transparent to

the user

</ForceStructureInformation> - <Relationships> - <Relationship type="Operational Control"> - <Assigned> - <UnitNode UIC="WAKNAA"> <UnitNode UIC="WAKNFT" /> <UnitNode UIC="WAKNAO" /> <UnitNode UIC="WAKNTO" /> <UnitNode UIC="WAKNCO" /> <UnitNode UIC="WAKNBO" /> </UnitNode>

Rapid Scenario Generation: the XMT

• XPOD Manipulation Tool (XMT) extracts data from C4I system format– Data ingest process enables updates to force data in the toolbox

• Supports modification of scenario data– Enables semi-automated scenario

updates– Supports use of “warm”

databases

• Retains common data format(XML XPOD) for other tools

• User friendly• Reduces time over manual processing

Data Flow with XML XPODs

XMT

DIAMONDXPOD

FASTXPOD

FASTXPOD DIAMOND

XPOD

JCATSXPOD

JCATSXPOD

FASTXPODJCATS

XPODDIAMONDXPOD

to 3283

to 3780

to 4187

to 4688

to 2282

to 386

to 1089

to 5692

Human rightsare protected

35

Police aredistinct fromthe military

45

Prison structureis adequate

49

Drug cultivationis not a problem

65Drug manufactureis not a problem

66Drug transshipment

is not a problem

67

Organized crimeis not a problem

69Common crimeis not a problem

73

Drug useis not a problem

72

Justice

to 5276

to 3078

to 3777

to 875

Armed forces arewell structured

4

Competing groupsresolve differences

11

Opposition partydoes not

espouse force

59

There haven'tbeen any

paramilitary forces

60There haven't been

any regime-sponsored,non-military armed forces

61

There are nofactional disputes

74

Conflict

to 3100

to 36101

Water distributioninfrastructureis sufficient

58

Needs

to 1118

to 29120

to 8119

to 42116

to 52117

International mediahave open access to

the reporting of events

38Government does not

control domestic media'sreporting of events

28Education

infrastructureis adequate

20

People's spiritualneeds are met

44Education system

is structuredtoward jobs

21

Misc

Basic naturalresource management

is in place

5

People perceivethat their interestsare represented

43

to 10106

to 29107

to 41108

to 52109

to 22110

to 32104

to 42105

Property ownershipissues are resolved

50

Stress migrationis not present

54

There are noexpatriates

62

There is nodisplacedpopulation

63

Movement

to 1893

to 2695

to 4294

to 1996

to 3297

to 4798

to 4899

Foreigninvestmentis available

27

Economyto 34113Core

to 1112

to 39114

to 53115

There areno migrants

64

to 4679

to 36111

to 18103

to 46102

to 2985

to 4284

to 5281

Financialsystemis solid

71

to 1590

to 2591

Opposition partydoesn't attempt todominate by force

40

Government-runmilitary is effective

31

Regime-sponsored,non-military armed forces

are demobilized

51

Paramilitary forcesare not present

41

Demobilized armedforces are

integrated into society

16

Disarmamentis effective

17

Healthrequirements

are met

33

Potable wateris sufficient

48

Food issufficient

26

Healthinfrastructureis adequate

32

Housing stockis sufficient

34

Expatriots returnto country

24

Population is notforced to move

46

Changes in populationcomposition improve

outlook

7

Population isfree to move

47

Displaced populationdecreases

18

Migrants leavecountry

39

Energy supplyand distributionare sufficient

23

Agricultural systemis productive

3

Telecominfrastructure

is in place

55

Critical industriesare sound

15

Tourism industryis robust

56

Financial systemis sufficient

25

Efficient marketsare in place

22

Acceptable jobsare available

1

Transportationinfrastructure

is in place

57

Commercial sectorcontributes to

national welfare

10

Civil (internal) unrestis not present

8

Safe and secureenvironment is

perceived

52Immediate needs

of the peopleare satisfied

36

Government hasdomestic legitimacy

29 People aretolerant of the

status quo

42

Institutions ofgovernance areeffective and fair

37

Economy issound

19

Civil stability anddurable peace exists

9

Crime is nota problem

70

Corruption insocial servicesis not rampant

14

Corruption incentral authorityis not rampant

12

Administration ofjustice is effective

and fair

2

Central authorityis effective

6

Government policeforce is effectiveagainst crime

30

Corruption inlaw enforcementis not rampant

13

Social servicesare adequate

53

Drug crimeis not a problem

68

Date 12/01/02 Scenario Name:

"Neutral" Value Variable SectorLow High Value

-4.00 4.00 .50 - 1.00 2.25 Output:

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00 Input:-3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00

-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 -2.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 3.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 3.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 1.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 -1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 0.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 2.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

-3.00 3.00 0.00 2.00

Basic natural resource management is in place

Water distribution infrastructure is sufficientNeeds

Iraq - Immediately Post War

There are no migrants

Movement

Property ownership issues are resolvedStress migration is not presentThere are no expatriatesThere is no displaced population

People perceive that their interests are representedPeople's spiritual needs are met

Misc

Education infrastructure is adequateEducational system is tailored toward jobsGovernment does not control domestic media's reporting of eventsInternational media have open access to the reporting of events

Common crime is not a problem

Justice

Foreign investment is availableFinancial system is solidHuman rights are protectedPolice are distinct from the militaryPrison structure is adequateDrug cultivation is not a problemDrug manufacture is not a problemDrug transshipment is not a problemDrug use is not a problemOrganized crime is not a problem

Range

Economy

Conflict

Armed forces are well structuredCompeting groups resolve differencesOpposition party does not espouse forceThere haven't been any paramilitary forces

There haven't been any regime-sponsored, non-military armed forcesThere are no factional disputes

Civil stability and durable peace exists

Stability & Peace Plus Core Values

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

12/25/01 2/13/02 4/4/02 5/24/02 7/13/02 9/1/02 10/21/02 12/10/02 1/29/03

Date

Stab

ility

Val

ue

uppermiddlelowerStability & peaceNo civil unrestEconomy is soundGovernment has domestic legitimacyPeople's immediate needs are metGovernment is effective and fairPeople tolerate the status quoPeople feel safe and secure

ISSM

DIAMOND

JCATS

Controller

FASTXPODJCATS

XPODDIAMONDXPOD

UOB

Usability vs Tool Matrix

User Training Requirement

Force Multiplier

Functionality

Controller 4 hours time reduction supportXMT 1-2 days time reduction C4I extract & data

manipulationUOB 1 day time reduction authoritative data & data

manipulationJCATS 4 weeks functionality high resolution, tactical DIAMOND 2 weeks functionality low resolution, operational

OOTW modelISSM 4 hours functionality very low resolution,

strategic-operational OOTW CFLD 1 hour functionality landmine dataXML Technology none time reduction data support

Naval Postgraduate School Initiatives

• NPS using the toolbox architecture for:– Extending research in:

• Open data interchange using XML technologies

• Integration of Agent-Based Simulations

– Professional Military Education:

• Integration of the toolbox into OR, IT, NWC, and M&S curricula

MOOTW FASTToolbox

Data InterchangeFormat (FAST DIF)

OIF After Action

• A prototype version was fielded by the US Center for Army Analysis (CAA) for testing in Iraq

• The CAA analyst used the UOB in the field

• The CAA analyst used the ISSM to prepare for deployment and evaluated its concepts in the field

• CAA provided several suggestions for improvements

OIF After Action: UOB

• Use:– Unit Support Capabilities: the UOB was useful in determining what

support capabilities a unit being considered for rotation into Iraq might bring, e.g., number of trucks in the unit

– Main Support Route (MSR) Demand: the UOB was useful in determining the demands on the MSR by a particular unit or type of unit that was being considered for rotation into Iraq

• Suggestions– Make it easier to export data to Excel

– Provide a function to filter equipment displays

– Provide ability to create database queries against the UOB data

OIF After Action: ISSM

• Use:– The ISSM provided good preparation for the analyst concerning the

factors involved in OOTWs

– The ISSM did not provide support in directly evaluating the campaign plan for Iraq (intervention factors)

– Little interest/trust in aggregation of raw data

• Suggestions– Add tailorable campaign plan support

– Provide clear explanations of meanings of the numerical values

– Consider theater-to-theater variations in connection strengths among variables

– Implied suggestion: consider validation efforts on logic

Conclusion

• The FAST Toolbox is available and works• The Toolbox provides a unique and needed set of OOTW

support functions• The Toolbox, through its complementary components,

provides coverage of the spectrum of OOTW activities• The Toolbox provides access to authoritative force data• The Toolbox provides access to C4I data, allowing the rapid

update of scenario files• The Toolbox provides automation support for time consuming,

normally manual operations, enabling its use in the most demanding of situations

• The Toolbox supports analysis and decision making, without forcing results on the user

Back-upsBack-ups

Placing Tools in Toolbox Space

OOTW Support vs Tool Matrix

V=VitalU=UsefulE=ExtraneousD=DistractingC=Counterproductive Co

ntro

ller

XMT

UOB

JCAT

S

DIAM

OND

ISSM

CFLD

Operations Decision SupportCOA Analysis V V V U V VSituational Awareness U V

AnalysisDeliberate Planning U U V U V UCrisis Action Planning V V V V V VForce Structure Analysis U V V U V UAcquisition Analysis U U U V V U

TrainingExercises U U U V UMission Rehearsal V V V VOther In-theater U U

Thesis Opportunities

• Interim Static Stability Model (ISSM) – Evaluation of ISSM factors; grounding of values

• Diplomatic and Military Operations in a Non-warfighting Domain (DIAMOND)– Generation of meaningful scenarios; assessment/testing

of model functionality; identification of new requirements

Major Question: How to make these tools effective for MOOTW planning?