flexible life extension with innovative monitoring
TRANSCRIPT
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Flexible Life Extension with Innovative Monitoring
14th March 2019
Christian Wiebe
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Fatigue Design/Life Extension – Conventional Approach
Global Response Analysis
Local Stress Analysis
Stress Histogram Revised Fatigue Damage
Source: NORSOK
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0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
16-Apr 29-Apr 12-May 25-May 7-Jun 20-Jun 3-Jul 16-Jul 29-Jul 11-Aug
Fa
tig
ue
D
am
ag
e A
ccu
mu
lati
on
(%
)
Date
FATIGUE DAMAGE ACCUMULATION (%)
Fatigue Critical Location #1 Fatigue Critical Location #2
Fatigue Critical Location #3 Fatigue Critical Location #4
Lo
gg
er
Insta
lla
tio
n
Lo
gg
er
Re
trie
va
l
Lo
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Insta
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tio
n
Lo
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trie
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Campaign I Campaign II
Red Limit = 10% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Amber Limit = 3% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Real-TimeFatigue Damage
Life Extension – New Approach
Measured Response
Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
Stress Time History
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0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
16-Apr 29-Apr 12-May 25-May 7-Jun 20-Jun 3-Jul 16-Jul 29-Jul 11-Aug
Fa
tig
ue
D
am
ag
e A
ccu
mu
lati
on
(%
)
Date
FATIGUE DAMAGE ACCUMULATION (%)
Fatigue Critical Location #1 Fatigue Critical Location #2
Fatigue Critical Location #3 Fatigue Critical Location #4
Lo
gg
er
Insta
lla
tio
n
Lo
gg
er
Re
trie
va
l
Lo
gg
er
Insta
lla
tio
n
Lo
gg
er
Re
trie
va
l
Campaign I Campaign II
Red Limit = 10% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Amber Limit = 3% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Real-TimeFatigue Damage
Life Extension – New Approach
Measured Response
Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
Stress Time History
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FlexAssure
▪ Vessel Translational & Angular Motion
▪ Riser Translational Motion
▪ Field Proven
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INTEGRIStick
▪ Riser Curvature
▪ Proven Technology
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Machine Learning
Machine Learning Model
Feedback Loop
Yes
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Development
Calculate Error
Targets
Inputs
Feedback Loop
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
Te
nsil
e A
rmo
ur
La
ye
r S
tre
ss (
MP
a)
Time (seconds)
Tullow - Jubilee Flexible Riser Eng Support
TARGET Vs OUTPUT TIMETRACES COMPARISON
Tensile Armour Layer Stress, Fatigue Seastate 4 (High Damage,
Low Error), 10, 10 Delays, 10 Hidden Layers
Target Output
Error in Maxima=0.20%Error in Minima=3.89%Error in Mean=0.76%Error in StDev=0.02%
Global Analysis
Stress Analysis
Meet Criteria
Continue Training
No
Yes Error
Global Analysis
Machine Learning
Output
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Stress
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600
Lo
ng
itu
din
al
Str
ess (
MP
a)
Time (seconds)
Flexible Riser Fatigue Tracker
MACHINE LEARNING - NARX/LM STRESS TIME TRACEFATIGUE DAMAGE, EXPONENT 6 - Seastate 7
Seastate 7 (ANN) Seastate 7 (FEA)
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Fatigue
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Pre
dic
ted
Fa
tig
ue
Da
ma
ge
Ra
te (
1/
Ye
ar)
FEA Fatigue Damage (1/Year)
Flexible Riser Fatigue Tracker
MACHINE LEARNING - STRESS TIME TRACEENARX/LM, Exponent 6 - 251 Seastates, Rainflow Counting
Over-Prediction
Under-Prediction
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Development
Calculate Error
Targets
Inputs
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
Te
nsil
e A
rmo
ur
La
ye
r S
tre
ss (
MP
a)
Time (seconds)
Tullow - Jubilee Flexible Riser Eng Support
TARGET Vs OUTPUT TIMETRACES COMPARISON
Tensile Armour Layer Stress, Fatigue Seastate 4 (High Damage,
Low Error), 10, 10 Delays, 10 Hidden Layers
Target Output
Error in Maxima=0.20%Error in Minima=3.89%Error in Mean=0.76%Error in StDev=0.02%
Global Analysis
Stress Analysis
Meet Criteria
Continue Training
No
Yes Error
Global Analysis
Feedback Loop
Machine Learning
Output
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Application
Inputs
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
Te
nsil
e A
rmo
ur
La
ye
r S
tre
ss (
MP
a)
Time (seconds)
Tullow - Jubilee Flexible Riser Eng Support
TARGET Vs OUTPUT TIMETRACES COMPARISON
Tensile Armour Layer Stress, Fatigue Seastate 4 (High Damage,
Low Error), 10, 10 Delays, 10 Hidden Layers
Target Output
Error in Maxima=0.20%Error in Minima=3.89%Error in Mean=0.76%Error in StDev=0.02%
Global Analysis
Stress Analysis
Meet Criteria
Continue Training
No
Yes Deploy
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
16-Apr 29-Apr 12-May 25-May 7-Jun 20-Jun 3-Jul 16-Jul 29-Jul 11-Aug
Fa
tig
ue
D
am
ag
e A
ccu
mu
lati
on
(%
)
Date
FATIGUE DAMAGE ACCUMULATION (%)
Fatigue Critical Location #1 Fatigue Critical Location #2
Fatigue Critical Location #3 Fatigue Critical Location #4
Lo
gg
er
Insta
lla
tio
n
Lo
gg
er
Re
trie
va
l
Lo
gg
er
Insta
lla
tio
n
Lo
gg
er
Re
trie
va
l
Campaign I Campaign II
Red Limit = 10% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Amber Limit = 3% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Calculate Error
Targets
Feedback Loop
Machine Learning
Output
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Flexible Life Extension with Innovative Monitoring
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
16-Apr 29-Apr 12-May 25-May 7-Jun 20-Jun 3-Jul 16-Jul 29-Jul 11-Aug
Fa
tig
ue
D
am
ag
e A
ccu
mu
lati
on
(%
)
Date
FATIGUE DAMAGE ACCUMULATION (%)
Fatigue Critical Location #1 Fatigue Critical Location #2
Fatigue Critical Location #3 Fatigue Critical Location #4
Lo
gg
er
Insta
lla
tio
n
Lo
gg
er
Re
trie
va
l
Lo
gg
er
Insta
lla
tio
n
Lo
gg
er
Re
trie
va
l
Campaign I Campaign II
Red Limit = 10% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Amber Limit = 3% of Accumulated Fatigue Damage
Source: NORSOK
Global Response Analysis
Local Stress Analysis
Stress Histogram Revised
Fatigue DamageReal-Time
Fatigue DamageMeasured Response
Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
Stress Time History
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Flexible Riser Fatigue
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NARX/Levenberg-Marquardt
▪ Typically used for time series
▪ High accuracy with minimal training datasets
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Selected Training Seastates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
211
205
106
70
216
231
223
250
188
88
74
123 2
165
174
238
50
208
22
62
44
193
236
138
40
96
23
148
93
46
94
27
34
33
58
185
Co
ve
rag
e (
%)
Seastate Number
Tullow - Jubilee Flexible Riser Eng Support
SELECTION OF TRAINING SEASTATES
All Seastates Training Seastates
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FlexAssure Case Study
▪ OSX-3
▪ 26 – 14 – 5
▪ Real Time
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INTEGRIStick Case Study
▪ Motion & Strain
▪ Fatigue
▪ Unexpected
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