flightglobal fleet forecast - international federation …€¦ · the 2015 flightglobal fleet...

FlightglobalFleet Forecast2015 – 2034

Independent outlook of theglobal commercial passengerand freighter aircraft market

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Turboprop

Regional jet

Single-aisle

Twin-aisle

Freighter

Freighter

Twin-Aisle

Single-Aisle

Regional Jet

Turboprop

2%(59.6)

46%(1,292.3)

5%(135.3)

4%(122.4)

43%(1,219.9)

Turboprop

Regional jet

Single-aisle

Twin-aisle

Freighter

Freighter

Twin-Aisle

Single-Aisle

Regional Jet

Turboprop

2%(833)

7%(2,898)

11%(833)

18%(7,506)

62%(25,354)

The 2015 Flightglobal Fleet Forecast estimates that some 40,955 new commercial jet and turboprop aircraft will be delivered into passenger and freighter airline service between 2015 and 2034. In addition to those new deliveries, a further 1,950 passenger aircraft are expected to be converted to freighter use over the 20-year period of the forecast.

The total value of these new deliveries, estimated using Ascend’s 2015 Base Full-Life Values, is expected to total around $2,830 billion. Base Values are used to estimate future delivery values since in our view these are a more pragmatic estimation of actual business values than the inflated manufacturer list prices often used in other forecasts.

Around 16,750 passenger jets and 2,380 passenger turboprops are expected to be removed from passenger service, with around 1,540 of the former and 415 of the latter converted to freighter service. A small minority of the remaining aircraft may be converted to other non-commercial roles, but the vast majority of the remainder is expected to be dismantled for spare parts which will support the remaining in-service fleet. Some 1,860 freighters will also be retired and in total, 71% of the current passenger and freighter fleet will be retired during the next 20 years.

The global commercial aircraft fleet in service is expected to increase by 82% to 48,760 aircraft in 2034 including 40,940 passenger jets, 4,220 passenger turboprops and 3,600 commercial freighter aircraft. By then, 40% of the fleet are

expected to be operating in Asia-Pacific and China, where continued higher-than-average passenger traffic growth rates (of 5% and 8% respectively) will see those regions remain the key drivers for growth and new aircraft demand in the next 20 years.

Airbus and Boeing are expected to remain the two largest commercial aircraft original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), between them delivering an estimated 85% by value of the world’s commercial jet aircraft through 2034. However, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut and Mitsubishi are all expected to capture increasingly significant volumes of jet demand, between them accounting for at least $320 billion of delivery value in the forecast period.

The twin-aisle market remains the last duopoly in the commercial aircraft sector today. Comac and Irkut are studying a joint 300-seater programme and there is a potential $55bn of additional deliveries forecast for new 250-300 seaters from the mid-2020s from the existing or new OEMs in the sector. The turboprop niche is expected to be worth $60 billion over the next 20 years. The majority of this value is focused on the larger aircraft segments. The 70-seat sector, is expected to account for at least $36bn of this opportunity, with a larger 90-seat segment having a potential $19bn. Consequently, we expect one or more manufacturers to eventually launch a product for this market.

executive summary

forecast 2015-2034 Deliveries forecast 2015-2034 Delivery value ($bn)

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Flightglobal is delighted to present this all-new 2015 Flightglobal Fleet Forecast. This annual report, developed by our Ascend Flightglobal Consultancy team, encapsulates more than 80 years of combined industry experience and expertise, allied with Flightglobal’s unrivalled commercial aircraft database resource, to deliver a deep insight into the future outlook for the commercial aviation industry. This truly independent report sets out the predicted evolution of the world’s commercial passenger and freighter aircraft fleet, together with the deliveries into and retirements from that fleet over the next 20 years. The fleet totals in each of eight global regions, together with new deliveries, retirements and freighter conversions for airlines in those regions, are all projected on an annual basis through 2034. The analysis details each of those parameters on an individual aircraft programme level, delivering an unrivalled understanding of the outlook for all known current and future commercial aircraft production families.

ABOUT THE FLIGHTGLOBAL FLEET FORECAST

WHY CHOOSE THIS FORECAST?

• Independently compiled and verified• The demand based methodology utilised is the product of

years of expert refinement• Forecast model utilises the combined Flightglobal and

Ascend Online databases • Only forecast available stretching 20 years into the

future• Only forecast available providing granular projections of

aircraft fleet and deliveries by type and region per year

ENABLING YOU TO

Financiers, Investors, Lessors & Insurers• Position aircraft finance, investment and trading strategy

to provide for medium and long- term demand• Understand the on-going influence of new deliveries and

new models on residual value riskMROs• Understand future shape of fleet for maintenance

demand• Confidently prepare for introduction of new aircraft

variantsOEMs• Identify prospects for current and future programmes• Help shape future business strategyAirlines• Plan future fleet based on availability trends• Assess impact on current operating fleetAirports• Determine future traffic levels• Prepare for introduction of new aircraft typesRegulators• Understand impact of legislation on future fleet• Inform future regulatory actionTraining & Simulator Providers• Plan future training programmes • Inform simulator purchase decisions

With an expert team of 20 analysts based across the globe, Ascend Flightglobal Consultancy provides manufacturers, airlines and financiers with expert advisory and valuations services to inform multi-million dollar growth, risk advisory and strategy decisions.

Part of Flightglobal, Ascend provides unique value for clients by combining around 50 years of industry experience with the most comprehensive historical and future aircraft fleet and airline schedule data and an unprecedented historical aircraft values database, to provide a unique view on aircraft values and the impact of industry trends.

ABOUT US

To find out more about the Flightglobal Fleet Forecast and how to order it, contact our specialist sales team at [email protected] visit ascendworldwide.com

ascendworldwide.com

To find out more about the Flightglobal Fleet Forecast and how to order it, contact our specialist sales team [email protected] visit ascendworldwide.com

The Flightglobal Fleet Forecast is a demand-based model which estimates the future fleet, retirements and deliveries of commercial turboprop and jet aircraft in both the passenger and cargo sectors, based on detailed analysis of historical trends and developments in the commercial aviation sector. Drawing upon Flightglobal and Ascend’s extensive data and knowledge resource, the forecast projects the evolution of the global commercial airline fleet and consequent demand for new aircraft through sophisticated modelling of traffic demand, aircraft retirements, fleet development and the future aircraft manufacturing scenario.

methodology

Traffic forecastsThe passenger traffic demand forecasts are derived from analysis of historical passenger traffic in each of the eight forecast regions. The relationship between this traffic demand and historical GDP and yield trends is used to derive a projection of future traffic demand. The projection makes assumptions regarding the following aspects:

• Long-term regional real GDP forecasts• Airline yield (revenue per passenger kilometre) • Changes over time in the relationship between GDP and air

traffic• Relative maturity in certain markets• Increased liberalisation in bilateral international markets and

domestic systems

This analysis delivers an annual forecast of traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), for each of the eight forecast regions. Traffic forecasts are translated into capacity forecasts, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), through an analysis of long-term passenger load factor developments. Passenger load factors at the end of 2014 averaged 79.7% at the global level (IATA figure), which is close to historical highs. But with increasingly sophisticated yield management techniques, load factors are still assumed to be able to grow at around 0.2 percentage points per annum.

Fleet forecastsThe regional passenger and cargo capacity forecasts are converted into a forecast of fleets required in each region to fulfil this capacity demand, through a historical analysis of capacity and fleet data. The fleet analysis is based upon the Ascend Fleets database, which provides access to the full histories of over 75,000 commercial aircraft by serial number. This enables the tracking of every major event surrounding the aircraft fleet, including orders, cancellations, deferrals, deliveries, sales, leases, conversions, storage and retirements.

For each region, the historical fleet evolution of turboprops, regional jets, single-aisle and twin-aisle types is analysed in terms of actual aircraft numbers and total capacity in a series of capacity bands based on seat-size. Trends in key productivity factors – average frequency, sector length and aircraft seat size – can thus be understood and projected based upon historical performance. These trends are used as a guide to the future, since it is accepted that history does not always provide an accurate picture of what may happen. Therefore, the forecast also takes into account the known plans of airlines and any perceived change in the region’s airline structure.

With the total capacity and productivity factors forecast, the fleet required in each region and aircraft category is projected as a product of these forecasts.

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contentsI. ExEcutIvE summary 7

II. KEy avIatION INDustry DrIvErs 9

GDP & traffic growth 9

the impact of fuel prices on airline costs 10

the airline profit cycle 12

Financing and operating leasing 13

III. cOmmErcIaL aIrLINEr FLEEt trENDs 17

HIstOrIcaL FLEEt DEvELOPmENt 17

Global fleet evolution 17

• Passenger jet fleet evolution 17

• Passenger turboprop fleet evolution 18

• Freighter fleet evolution 19

the changing regional distribution of the fleet 20

• Passenger jet fleet trend by region 20

• Passenger turboprop fleet trend by region 21

• Freighter fleet trend by region 22

HIstOrIcaL DELIvEry trENDs 23

Historical passenger jet deliveries 23

Historical passenger turboprop deliveries 24

Historical freighter deliveries 25

Historical freighter conversions 26

HIstOrIcaL rEtIrEmENts 27

Passenger jet retirements 27

Passenger turboprop retirements 28

Freighter retirements 29

Import age restrictions 29

Economic useful life debate 30

OrDErs aND bacKLOG DEvELOPmENt 32

Passenger jet orders and backlog 32

Passenger turboprop orders and backlog 33

Freighter orders and backlog 35

tHE currENt FLEEt 36

Passenger jet current fleet 36

Passenger turboprop current fleet 37

Freighter current fleet 39

aIrcraFt IN stOraGE 40

Passenger jets in storage 40

Passenger turboprops in storage 41

Freighters in storage 42

Iv. FOrEcast summary 43

Passenger capacity 43

Forecast by region 43

Load factor trends 44

Freight traffic 45

Fleet forecast 46

Retirement forecast 48

Delivery forecast 49

v. FOrEcast by marKEt GrOuP 51

turboprops 51

• Fleet & retirements 51

• Deliveries 52

Regional jets 53


• Deliveries 54

Single-aisle passenger jets 55


• Deliveries 56

Twin-aisle passenger jets 57


• Deliveries 58

Freighters 59


• Deliveries & conversions 60

vI. FOrEcast by rEGION 63

africa 63

• Forecast summary 63

• Passenger jet fleet 64

• Passenger turboprop fleet 65

• Freighter fleet 65

asia-Pacific 66





china 69




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Europe 72





Latin america & caribbean 75





middle East 78





North america 81





russia & cIs 84





VII. DelIVeRy FoRecaST by aIRcRaFT TyPe 87

PassENGEr marKEts 87

Turboprops 87

• aTR 42 87

• aTR 72 88

• aVIc/Xac Ma60 88

• aVIc/Xac Ma700 89

• bombardier Dash 8-Q400 89

• Viking Twin otter 89

• Potential new development 90

Regional jets 92

• bombardier cRJ700/900/1000 92

• comac aRJ21 92

• embraer e170/e175/e190/e195 (e Jet) 93

• embraer e175/e190/e195 e2 93

• Mitsubishi MRJ 94

• Sukhoi Superjet 100 95

• Potential new RJ development 95

Single-aisle passenger jets 96

• airbus a319/a320/a321 (a320ceo family) 96

• airbus a319neo/a320neo/a321neo 96

• boeing 737NG 97

• boeing 737 Max 98

• bombardier cSeries 98

• comac c919 99

• Irkut Mc-21 100

Twin-aisle passenger jets 101

• airbus a330ceo 101

• airbus a330neo 102

• airbus a350 102

• airbus a380 103

• boeing 747-8I 103

• boeing 777 104

• boeing 777X 104

• boeing 787 105

• Potential new twin-aisle developments 105

FrEIGHtEr marKEts 107

New build freighters 107

• airbus a330-200F 107

• boeing 747-8F 108

• boeing 767-300eRF 108

• boeing 777 Freighter 108

• New market entrants 109

Passenger to freighter conversions 110

• Turboprops 110

• Regional jets 110

• Narrowbody jets 111

• Widebody jets 111

vIII. mEtHODOLOGy 113

traffic forecasts 113

Fleet forecasts 113

retirement forecasts 114

Delivery forecasts 116

aPPENDIx 117

flightglobal fleet forecast - international federation …€¦ · the 2015 flightglobal fleet...

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