flood and coastal erosion risk management...
TRANSCRIPT
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Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Network
Annual Assembly 2014
Elevator Pitch Session 1a
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Poster 1
Flooding From Intense Rainfall £5.2m plus Met
Office Sue Ballard Met Office
Sarah Dance and Hannah Cloke University of Reading
from 2013 - 5 year NERC funded and Met Office matching in WP1 - aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and
flash floods
WP1: Improve the length and accuracy of forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of rainfall associated with convective storms.
WP2: Identify the susceptibility to high-intensity rainfall of different catchment types, based on characterisation of the properties that govern the
dynamic, non-linear, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes which initiate, extend and intensify associated flood risks.
WP3: Enhance flood risk-management through the development of both flood risk estimation and real-time forecasts of floods associated with
high-intensity rainfall, integrating multiple meteorological and hydro-morphological processes occurring before, during and after intense
precipitation events.
© Crown copyright 07/0XXX Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks
MetOffice@Reading, Meteorological Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 7BE United Kingdom
Tel: 0118 3786310 Fax: 01118 3788791
Email: [email protected]
Greater and Improved use of Radar Data
WT1 Radar reflectivity correction with associated errors 1PDRA + Met Office
attenuation correction, improved understanding of errors exploiting dual-polarization radar
improved radar/gauge composite and data for assimilation in NWP
WT2 Radar refractivity part PDRA + Met Office
Changes in low level humidity. Optimise processing and develop method for assimilation into NWP
Improved data assimilation methods through
WT3 assessment and improved treatment of Correlated observation errors eg radar radial Doppler winds 1PDRA +Met Office
WT4 Improving the representation of moist processes and unbalanced flows in data assimilation 1PDRA +Met Office
Improved modelling and understanding of predictability
WT5 Analysis of linearized models of convection-permitting models – PhD
WT6 Environmental controls on convective-scale error growth - PhD
.
WP1: FRANC Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and
Novel observations of Convection
Flooding From Intense Rainfall
© Crown copyright 07/0XXX Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks
MetOffice@Reading, Meteorological Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 7BE United Kingdom
Tel: 0118 3786310 Fax: 01118 3788791
Email: [email protected]
Universities of Reading, Newcastle, Bristol, Exeter, Kings, Hull plus Met Office FFC, BGS, HSL, NHP, HALCROW and JBA
WT1 Process,Understanding &Measurement
• ST1.1: Building the time series of events & impacts - 2PDRA, PhD
• ST1.2: FLood Action Team (FLoAT) - - 1 PDRA
• ST1.3: Atmospheric Precursors 1.25PDRA
WT2 Modelling & Prediction
• ST2.1: Detailed FFIR processes in flood models – 2PDRA, PhD
• ST2.2: Scaling up to the Catchment – 2PDRA
• ST2.3: Representing Large Scale processes – 2PDRA
WT3 Impacts and Decision Support
• ST3.1: Impacts of FFIR – 1PDRA, PhD
• ST3.2 Transferable Knowledge and Tools 3PDRA
WP2: SINATRA
Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding
WP3: Integration – to be defined and due to start 2015
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Poster 2
Impact aNalysis of
City Infrastructure
Disaster EveNT
(INCIDENT)
Dr. Bingunath Ingirge
Senior Lecturer
Email: [email protected] Centre for Disaster Resilience
School of the Built Environment
University of Salford
Salford
Greater Manchester
M5 4WT, UK
http://www.salford.ac.uk/disaster-resilience
Effects of cascading
events Short term exploratory project to
investigate how to map and
visualize city resilience
against cascading events and
interdependencies.
Exploratory project funded by
ARUP
Working with;
• Greater Manchester
Resilience forum
• ARUP team
• Other European partners
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Poster 3
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Setting up ‘live’ natural flood management catchment laboratories
Lydia Burgess-Gamble –Research Scientist 1, Environment Agency
e-mail: [email protected]
Setting-up ‘live’ natural flood management
Catchment Laboratories
FCRM community is asking for ‘live’ catchment
laboratories to:
Learn in practice how different measures works
Test out specific research questions
Have local demonstration sites used to enthuse people
Undertake long-term monitoring & share lessons learnt
How do we make them happen?
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Poster 4
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Tim Harries Kingston University London
Analysing flood-talk to learn how to promote adaptation
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Evidence for denial • How people talk about flood risk –
discourses and rhetorical strategies • Research in similar domains
Denial is • Ignoring the ‘facts’
(disavowal) OR • Arguing against the
‘facts’ (denialism)
Denial leads to • Absence of practical
adaptation
Denial is caused by • Desire to avoid anxiety • Low perceived control
over impacts?
Denial can perhaps be reduced by (e.g.) • Normalising flooding and
adaptation • Gradual commitment to adaptation • Easier, more reliable adaptation • Trusted advice
The example of psychological denial
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Poster 5
Wortley Beck Catchment – Leeds, UK
ISIS Model
TUFLOW Model
Johnson Creek – Portland, USA
East Lents
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SA-6
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HEC-RAS Model
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Poster 6
Where can rural land management contribute to FRM?
Tim Hess & Ian Holman
© Amy Parrott (EA)
Where can rural land management contribute to FRM?
• Farming practices to encourage infiltration can reduce runoff
• The impact of land management on peak runoff generation depends on:
– Soil type, Land use & Climate
• Catchment interventions work best on;
– Degraded permeable soils
– Under managed grassland
– In drier regions
• Greater impact of land management change on more frequent events
• For the 1% AEP event, only a few PUs where reduction in runoff >5%
• Question: What are the impacts on hydrology and land capability?
Change in weighted average 20% AEP daily runoff depth for CFMP Policy Units in England & Wales
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Poster 7
Helping address Scotland’s water policy challenges
Targeting agri-environment measures to mitigate flood risk
1. James Hutton Institute; 2. SEPA; 3. Scottish Government
Ioanna Akoumianaki1, Heather Forbes2, Debi Garft3, Sue Morris1, Emily Hastings1 and Jannette MacDonald1
Targeting Natural Flood Management (NFM) measures
Steps • options (measures) addressing
FRM Act priorities e.g. Management of floodplains
Management of riparian buffer strips
In-field rural SuDs
Restoration of river banks
• target areas of NFM options i.e. eligibility vs opportunity mapping • criteria for scoring applications e.g. overlaps with water quality target areas
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Poster 8
Flood Risk Management Act www.sepa.org.uk/flooding.aspx
Improving Understanding of Flood
Hazard across Scotland
Speaker: Fiona McLay E-mail: [email protected]
Work by: SEPA Strategic Flood Risk E-mail: [email protected]
Together with consultants: JBA, Halcrow/CH2MHILL and Royal Haskoning DHV
Flood Risk Management Act www.sepa.org.uk/flooding.aspx
Improving Understanding of Flood Hazard across Scotland
• Requirement of EU floods directive,
FRM Scotland Act.
• Main national source of flood hazard information.
• Prepared by 22nd Dec 2013, published 15th Jan 2014.
• Pluvial, Fluvial and Coastal Flooding, Extents, Depth, Velocity
• Support development of FRM Strategies and Plans to reduce overall flood risk.
• Data restricted to flood management and non commercial use.
• Ongoing Work – Confidence improvements
– Improvements in data and methods
– Understanding future hazard by developing climate change scenarios
• Statutory requirement for 6 year review and update
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Poster 9
Energy Transport Water
Resource disruption / Business continuity
Consolidated storage + Just in time
Distributed storage + Just in time
Distributed storage + bulkier deliveries
Flood initiation
”[Resource disruption] … worsened by what’s become a far more efficient and mostly private supply chain that’s cut the need for local storage.” NY Daily News, 30/10/2013
Richard Dawson, Newcastle University
Flood risk
Heat risk
Greenspace
Urban sprawl
Travel emissions
Objective Reduction
Flood risk 92%
Heat risk 8.5%
Greenspace 15%
Urban sprawl 68%
Travel emissions 42%
Improvement on local plan
Flood risk
Trav
el e
mis
sio
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Optimisation of land use against multiple risks and sustainability criteria
Richard Dawson, Newcastle University
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Poster 10
Impact of Rural Land
Management on Catchment
Scale Flood Risk
Dr Ian Pattison
School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough
University
Email [email protected]
Twitter @GoWithTheF1ow
SCALE
Stakeholder
Co-production
of Knowledge
LANDSCAPE
SCALE
CHANNEL
SCALE
Compaction
Wet woodland
WHAT to do and WHERE to do it ?
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Poster 11
Annual Assembly
Edinburgh | 19-20 June 2014
Matthew Roberts
1985
1986
1994
2009
Flood
Forecasting &
Warning
Flood
Intelligence &
Analysis
Total Water Cycle
Management
Plans
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Poster 12
Dr Amanda Wragg
University of the West of England
SESAME WP4 – Adaptive e-learning &
behaviour change throughout the ‘flood
cycle’ [email protected]
?? What are the long-term adaptive responses of small
businesses following a flood event?
?? Useful intervention tool? e.g. e-learning/app
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Narrative/sense-making in organisations
Learning approaches & behaviour change
Knowledge – local, scientific, institutional
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Case study areas...Interviews….Focus
Groups….Stakeholder Competency Group…
WP4 Research Focus
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Poster 13
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Flood MEMORY
Coastal flood systems Swash zone subsurface flow model SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
Swash zone is a highly dynamic environment with significant sediment transport during extreme storms
Laboratory experimental data have been generated in the recent EPSRC project “Experimental and Numerical Modelling Study of Swash Zone Hydrodynamics and Sediment Transport”
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Flood MEMORY
Coastal flood systems Swash zone subsurface flow model SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
Bore
Groundwater
A novel swash zone model is being developed at Aberdeen University.
Two modules are coupled together: • 1d surface module – solves the non linear
surface water equations.
• 2d subsurface module – capable of simulating both Darcian or non Darcian porous flow, along with air and groundwater movement within the bed.
1.5mm
10 mm
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Poster 14
Dr Tracey Coates [email protected]
Kingston University, London &
FHRC, Middlesex University
The support of the European Commission through FP7.2009-1, Contract 244104 - THESEUS ("Innovative
technologies for safer European coasts in a changing climate"), is gratefully acknowledged.
THESEUS Project (WP4) www.theseusproject.eu
• Coastal areas are home to large populations and are an important economic asset
• Flood/erosion problems likely to increase with climate change
• Can we plan to do the following? – Reduce inappropriate future development
– Change standards of current development
– Change future use of current development
– Aid resilience of essential services, infrastructure and evacuation routes
• Research ongoing but to summarise – There is potential but integrating FCERM into the spatial planning system
is challenging
• Do we need to treat the coasts differently?
Interviews were carried out in – Bulgaria, France, Poland, Spain and the UK
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Poster 15
Hydrosystems Modelling @ Newcastle
• Numerical methods for shallow flow hydrodynamics (2D shallow water equations)
– Most of the prevailing numerical methods including FVM, FDM, FEM and SPH
– Dynamically adaptive grids
– High-performance computing with GPUs
• Applications
– Priority area 1: natural hazards, e.g. flooding, tsunami, storm surge, landslide
– Priority area 2: catchment management
Qiuhua Liang, Professor of Hydrosystems Modelling, Newcastle Uni. E-mail: [email protected]; Tel: 0191 208 6413
Resolution Cells 1 x NVIDIA
Tesla M2075
Intel Xeon E5-2609
(4 core fully parallel)
Intel Xeon E5-2609
(single core)
2m 3,637,491 13:41:44 9 days > 1 month
High-Performance Integrated hydrodynamic Modelling System
– Three numerical schemes • 1st-order Godunov-type scheme
• 2nd-order Godunov-type scheme
• Simplified inertial approximation
– Any modern CPUs or GPUs
Hi-PIMS
Simulation of the Carlisle flooding in January 2005
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Poster 16
FCERM_Net Annual Assembly - 2014
Infrastructure Management and Performance (iMaP)
A proposal to develop a major new research consortium
Paul Sayers (Sayers and Partners, ECI - University of Oxford – contact [email protected])
Jim Hall (ECI - Unversity of Oxford)
Andy Moores and OwenTarrant (Environment Agency)
June 2014
Outline of iMAP
Overview
iMaP aims to provide a significant programme of research (over 5 years) providing a new, richer, understanding of asset performance and the how to manage asset systems efficiently and effectively.
The concept is that iMAP will be primarily funded through the research councils (subject to peer review) but shaped jointly by practitioners and researchers and co-funded by the joint programme (data, in-kind and targeted funds).
What next?
The iMAP submission will be developed over the coming 6 months – including Co-I’s, industry partners and topics.
The seed funding from the Agency will enable us to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to develop an ambitious and innovative (but useful) programme of collaborative research.
We will be holding a ‘research development workshop’ and will be issuing an invitation to express interest in joining that workshop in the coming weeks.
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Poster 17
Sniffer, ECCI, High School Yards, Infirmary Street, Edinburgh, EH1 1LZ, Scotland, UK
T: 0131 650 5326 E: [email protected] W: www.sniffer.org.uk Scottish Charity No SC022375, Company No SC149513. Registered in Edinburgh.
Registered Office: Edinburgh Quay, 133 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh, EH3 9AG
Scotland’s Flood Risk Management Conference 2015
Sniffer’s 10th Annual Conference
3rd and 4th February 2015
Call for papers
Sniffer, ECCI, High School Yards, Infirmary Street, Edinburgh, EH1 1LZ, Scotland, UK
T: 0131 650 5326 E: [email protected] W: www.sniffer.org.uk Scottish Charity No SC022375, Company No SC149513. Registered in Edinburgh.
Registered Office: Edinburgh Quay, 133 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh, EH3 9AG
Flood Risk Management Hub
• Website for FRM professionals
– Public sector
– Private sector
– Research
• Act as a portal to existing useful information
• Place to share new knowledge/ research/ case studies that isn’t captured elsewhere
• What do you think?
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With thanks to our Session Speakers