FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY J. Mulet F. Alcrudo Area de Mecnica de Fluidos, CPS-Universidad de Zaragoza BASIC UNCERTAINTY APPROACH Run models on the three (upper, mid, lower) hydrographs provided in breach analysis Fixed bathymetry (1982) Added comparison with 1998 bathymetry Different models/modellers UNCERTAINTY SIMULATIONS. SIMULATION NUMBER OF CELLSCITY MODEL CEMAGREF COURSE MESH2611VERTICAL WALLS* UCL R VERTICAL WALLS UDZ-1 (Mulet)~ 20000VERTICAL WALLS SIMULATION NUMBER OF CELLSCITY MODEL UDZ-2 (Murillo)~ 40000BOTTOM ELEVATION 1982 BATHYMETRY 1998 BATHYMETRY REQUESTED RESULTS: - WATER DEPTH HISTORY AT GAUGE/POINTS LOCATIONS - DISCHARGE HYDROGRAPH THROUGH SECTIONS - WATER DEPTH ENVELOPE OF 0.5 m AND 2 m DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES. EXPERIMENTAL SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED PLATEAU LIKE EMPTYING NOT BIG DIFFERENCES IN WATER SURFACE ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (4.77m)1982 MAX - MIN DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTABLE TO INTERPOLATION IN STEEP SLOPE AREA UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (2.67m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE OLD CINEMA UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (0.71m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE CONDES DE ORGAZ STREET UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (1.24m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE PROYECTO C STREET - DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES STRESSED UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (~0m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE OLD CITY HALL - SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED - SIMILAR WATER ELEVATION FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (1.29m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE CLOCKS SITE RISE RATES ARE BETTER REPRODUCED WITH THE UPPER HYDROGRAPH UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (0.41m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE JCAR STREET UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE BATHYMETRY (-1.12m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE VALENCIA STREET IMPORTANT BATHYMETRY EFFECT (EVEN IF DIFFERENCES IN BOTOTM ELEVATION AT GAUGE ARE SMALL) GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A BATHYMETRY (-1.17m)1982 BATHYMETRY UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM IMPORTANT DISCHARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 BATHYMETRIES UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B BATHYMETRY (3.45m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD STRONG SCATTERING BETWEEN MODELS/MODELERS UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C BATHYMETRY (4.4m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D BATHYMETRY (1.7m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE BEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACRCEL NEARLY NO DISPERSION AT ALL UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E BATHYMETRY (5.9m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE RIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACRCEL NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F BATHYMETRY (4.1m)1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE DOWNSTREAM SUMACRCEL NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES ADDED RUNS HID NUMBER OF CELLS VALLEY FRICTIONZONES FRICTIONCITY MODEL UPPER- U~ NONE BASIC~ VERTICAL WALLS LOW-L~ NONE 1982 BATHYMETRY UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 UPPER UDZ-1 LOWER CESI UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 UPPER UDZ-1 LOWER CESI UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 UPPER UDZ-1 LOWER CESI UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES. UDZ-1 UPPERUDZ-1 LOWER CESI UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES. CEM UPPER UDZ-1 UPPER CESI NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT INFLUENCE OF ADDED UNCERTAINTY EFFECTS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD EXTRA FRICTION EFFECTS ARE INCREASED DOWNSTREAM UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE AZUD UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM FURTHER INCREASE DOWNSTREAM MAINLY DUE TO THE FRICTION ZONING (NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF BASELINE FRICTION) UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE 3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM - SAME WATER FLOW RATE FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES THROUGH SECTION 3 DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN WATER LEVEL - SAME PEAK AS IN THE OUTFLOW TOUS DAM HYDROGRAPH UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE BEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACRCEL UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE RIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACRCEL UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F. UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE DOWNSTREAM SUMACRCEL NO FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EFFECT CONCLUSIONS (Preliminary) Uncertainty sources considered (and proved relevant) Model / Modeler Bathymetry Friction levels Specifically friction distribution/zoning Baseline friction level not significant Uncertainty in urban area Overall 2m (either water depth / water elevation) Uncertainty in valley Considerably higher with strong differences No clear indications as to comparative influence of considered parameters/effects