flood vulnerability index - oieau
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Flood Vulnerability IndexFlood Vulnerability Index
Richard F. Connor
Japan Water Forum (JWF)
PACIFIC CONSULTANTS
Japan Water Forum (JWF)National Institute for Landand Infrastructure Management, Japan (NILIM)
Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd(PCKK)
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Background of the StudyBackground of the StudyIncreasing Impatcs Increasing Impatcs Climate ChangeClimate Change
Philippines Jul. Philippines Jul. ’’0202
China Jun. China Jun. ’’0202Source: AP
Source: APSource: http://www.qsr.mlit.go.jp/bousai/index_c19.html
Fukuoka, Japan Jul. Fukuoka, Japan Jul. ’’0303
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Background of the StudyBackground of the Study
Source: US Army Corps of Engineers
New Orleans, USA New Orleans, USA Aug. Aug. ’’0505
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FVI can be an important policy-making tool for1) raising public awareness,2) assisting governments in priority setting and3) guiding the international organizations in directions
of involvement.
Purpose of the studyPurpose of the study
Purpose:
Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) enables everyone to assess vulnerability to flood disaster at basin level.
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The Four Key ComponentsThe Four Key Components
ClimateComponent
HydrogeologicalComponent
Socio-EconomicComponent
CountermeasureComponent
FVIFVI
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These components might be categorized as belowThese components might be categorized as below
ClimateComponent
HydrogeologicalComponent
Socio-EconomicComponent
Frequency of heavy rainfallFrequency of heavy rainfall
Averaged slope of basinAveraged slope of basin
Urbanized area ratio in basinUrbanized area ratio in basin
CountermeasureComponent
Population on flood areaPopulation on flood areaTV penetration rateTV penetration rate
Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate
Population rate under povertyPopulation rate under poverty
Years sustaining healthy lifeYears sustaining healthy life
Literacy rateLiteracy rate
Investment amount for structural countermeasureInvestment amount for structural countermeasure
State of non-structural countermeasureState of non-structural countermeasure
FVI IndicatorsFVI Components
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Example of quantification of FVI indicator Example of quantification of FVI indicator Frequency of heavy rainfall Frequency of heavy rainfall •Data definition:
The number of days of heavy rainfall with more than 100mm/day in the basin in a year
•Data collection•Data from NOAA •Daily rainfall•13,000 observation points the past 11 years
Downloaded from the NOAA website (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html)
Fig. 13,000 rainfall observation points
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FVI equationFVI equationfor the for the major international major international river basinriver basinss
MSHCFVI −++=
)()()3()3( 1110987654321 IIIIIIIIIII +−++−+−−++×+×=
Frequency of heavy rainfall (more than 100mm/day)
Averaged slope of basin
Urbanized area ratio in basin
Population in flood area
TVpenetration rate
Infant mortality rate
Population rate under poverty
Years sustaining healthy life
Literacy rate
Investment amount for structural counter-measure
State of non-structural counter-measure
ClimateComponent
HydrogeologicalComponent
Socio-EconomicComponent
CountermeasureComponent
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FVI map of the major international river FVI map of the major international river basins (114 basins)basins (114 basins)
The lower the value, the better.
FVI scores are higher in South Asia and Africa.FVI scores are higher in South Asia and Africa.
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FVI in South AsiaFVI in South Asia
Mekong
Red River
Salween
Brahmaputra
Yangtze
Ganges
Irrawaddy
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Rader Chart of FVI ComponentsRader Chart of FVI Components
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0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00Climate
Hydrological
Socio-Economy
Countermeasure
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00Climate
Hydrological
Socio-Economy
Countermeasure
Rader Chart of FVI ComponentsRader Chart of FVI Components
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00Climate
Hydrological
Socio-Economy
Countermeasure
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00Climate
Hydrological
Socio-Economy
Countermeasure
South Asia Africa
Europe South America
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1. Assess flood vulnerability in any basin in the world by using easily collectable data
2. Better understand the complex nature of vulnerability
3. Compare basins and see how different factors influence vulnerability
4. To serve as a useful tool in considering long-term flood management policy
Potential ApplicationsPotential Applications
Application of Flood Vulnerability IndexApplication of Flood Vulnerability Indexin the Philippinesin the Philippines
Maria Catalina E. Cabral, Ph.D.
OIC-Director, Planning ServiceDepartment of Public Works and Highways, The Philippines
PACIFIC CONSULTANTS
Japan Water Forum (JWF)National Institute for Landand Infrastructure Management, Japan (NILIM)
Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd(PCKK)
Department of Public Works and Highways, The Philippines (DPWH)
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Flood Disasters in The PhilippinesFlood Disasters in The Philippines
Philippines Jul. Philippines Jul. ’’0202Source: AP
OrmocOrmoc City Nov. City Nov. ’’9191
Source: Water-Related disaster Threats in the Philippines by Resito V. David of FCSEC, DPWH.
Metro ManilaMetro Manila
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Problems to be solvedProblems to be solved in the field of flood controlin the field of flood controlin The Philippinesin The Philippines
Flood Disasters
Increase in poverty seriously
don’t know which basins are more vulnerable than the others
Reasonable allocation of budget is difficult.
Luck of public awareness
Less budget for flood control project
The negative linkage between poverty and flood disaster will be cut off.
FVI is here to solve the problem!FVI is here to solve the problem!
The more vulnerable basins can be distinguished.
Reasonable allocation of budget is possible.
Raising public awareness
More budget can be allocated for flood control.
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Flood Vulnerability IndexFlood Vulnerability Indexapplied for the river basins in The Philippines applied for the river basins in The Philippines
The FVI methodology was simply applied for the 18 major river basins in The Philippines.
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FVI IndicatorsFVI Indicators
Frequency of heavy rainfallFrequency of heavy rainfall
Averaged slope of basinAveraged slope of basin
Urbanized area ratio in basinUrbanized area ratio in basin
Population on flood areaPopulation on flood areaTV penetration rateTV penetration rate
Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate
Population rate under povertyPopulation rate under poverty
Years sustaining healthy lifeYears sustaining healthy life
Literacy rateLiteracy rate
Investment amount for structural countermeasureInvestment amount for structural countermeasure
State of non-structural countermeasureState of non-structural countermeasure
ClimateComponent
HydrogeologicalComponent
Socio-EconomicComponent
CountermeasureComponent
Most of the data source are from DPWH, PAGASA and NSO.
FVI IndicatorsFVI ComponentsThe data defined especially from the Philippines
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FVI equation for the major river basins in FVI equation for the major river basins in The PhilippinesThe Philippines
2
6223
11
10
9
4
3
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∑
∑∑
=
== +×+×=
++=
nn
mm
ll
m
shc
I
III
MwSwHwCwFVI
ClimateComponent
HydrogeologicalComponent Socio-Economic
Component
CountermeasureComponent
Tropical cyclone passage 5-year average frequency
Averaged slope of basin
Highly urban and capital city area ratio in basin
Population density in basin
TV penetration rate
Infant mortality rate
Population rate under poverty
Years sustaining healthy life
Literacy rate
State of structural countermeasure
State of non-structural countermeasure
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The lower the value, the better.
Davao
FVI assessment resultFVI assessment resultAbulog
Abra
The FVI result shows the significant correlation between FVI and the annual casualties of 0.72.
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The most vulnerable river basinsThe most vulnerable river basinsThe three basins (Abra, Abulog and Davao) are assessed as the most vulnerable to flood disaster.
ClimateComponent
HydrogeologicalComponent
Socio-EconomicComponent
CountermeasureComponent
Abra basin and Abulog basin are the most vulnerable in terms of “Climate Component”and “Countermeasure Component”.
Davao basin is the most vulnerable in terms of “Hydrogeological Component” and “Countermeasure Component”.
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Tool for Guiding Policy
FVI can be an important policy-making tool for
1) raising public awareness,
2) assisting governments in priority setting
3) guiding the international organizations in directions of involvement.
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Conclusions and ChallengesConclusions and ChallengesFVI based on the Philippines’ data shows quantitatively the vulnerability of each basin.
We have reached at the starting point from which to prioritize activities aimed at reducing flood vulnerability.
FCSEC will continue the study with FVI to assess the flood vulnerability for 421 principal river basins annually or biennially.