FlowsthroughschoolsystemsinSouthernAfrica:Pa8erns,

trendsandpolicies

ServaasvanderBerg&ChrisvanWyk

ReSEP,UniversityofStellenbosch

QuanGtaGveEducaGonResearchConference

Stellenbosch6September2018

ContentSixcountries:•  Mozambique•  Swaziland•  Lesotho•  SouthAfrica•  Botswana•  NamibiaThreeareasoffocus:•  A>ainment(history)•  A>endance(current),repeDDonanddrop-out•  Quality(cogniDveoutcomes)Threedimensionsofinequality:•  Bygender•  BylocaDon(region/province/urban-rural)•  Bywealthgrouping(socio-economicstatus,SES)

2

SOME CONTEXT

3

SCHOOLS

Geographical Distribution of Schools

Theissue:

CanincenGvesofN$20000peryearmoGvateteacherswithpost-graduateteacherqualificaGonstoteachinremoteareas…

Thepuzzle:WhydomorethanhalfofNamibia’squalifiedteachersteachinremoteareas,despitethelivingcondiGons?

withhousingcondiGonssuchas

this?

Namibia:Enrolmentbyhomelanguage,2014

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000Oshikwan

yama

OtherOshiwam

boLan

guages

Oshindo

nga

Khoe

khoe

gowab

(Nam

a/Da

mara)

Otjihe

rero

Afrik

aans

Rukw

angali

OtherLan

guages

OtherCap

riviLan

guages

Rugciriku

Thim

buku

shu

San

Silozi

English

Shisha

mbyu

Setswan

a

German

OtherEurop

eanLangua

ges

SignLan

guage

Mozambique:ImpactofthecivilwaronthedestrucGonoftheschoolnetwork

Province SchoolsExisGngin1983 Destroyedorclosedby1992

Number %Niassa 508 352 69CaboDelgado 542 109 20Nampula 1116 535 48Zambézia 1130 997 88Tete 479 454 95Manica 225 109 48Sofala 386 253 66Inhambane 506 220 44Gaza 546 169 31MaputoProvince 339 204 60MaputoCity 109 0 0Total 5886 3402 58

7

Source:DaMaia2012,adaptedfromMinistryofEducaDon(1996:40)

Mozambique:

8Source:OwncalculaGonsfromAnnualSchoolCensus(EMIS)

12 291 12 291 12 241 12 06811 387

7 3396 624

854 834 808 464 435

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Gr1 Gr2 Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12

InZambezia:3252schoolsofferGr1,only85Gr8,only40Gr12

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000Enrolmentbyprovinceandgrade,2017

CidadedeMaputo

Maputo

Gaza

Inhambane

Sofala

Manica

Tete

Zambézia

Nampula

CaboDelgado

Niassa

Enrolmentbyprovinceandgrade,2017Numberofschoolsofferingvariousgrades,2017

PROGRESSINATTAINMENT

9

%ofbirthcohortthatcompletedvariousgradesA:Grade5 B:Grade7

C:Grade10 D:Grade12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Birthyear

Botswana Lesotho Namibia SouthAfrica Swaziland

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Birthyear

Botswana Lesotho Namibia SouthAfrica Swaziland

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990Birthyear

Botswana Lesotho Namibia SouthAfrica Swaziland

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985Birthyear

Botswana Lesotho Namibia SouthAfrica Swaziland

NoteexaggeraGon

Lesotho:%ofbirthcohortthathavereachedatleastGrades1,5,7,10&12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Yearofbirth

Gr1

Gr5

Gr7

Gr10

Gr12

SA:%ofyouthaged21-25whohavecompletedvariousgradesbasedoncensusesandsurveys

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

None Gr1 Gr2 Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12

197019801985199119962001200720112016

Namibia:A8ainmentprofileages20to25,2001and2011

Lesotho:EnrolmentandpopulaGonesGmatesbyage,2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

5 10 15 20

Pop

ulat

ion

('000

)

Age

Population and enrolment 2017

UN Population Division estimates Census 2016 Enrolment

Namibia:%over-agedforgrade(olderthan7ingrade1,8ingrade2,etc.)

15

29%

42%49%

54%

63% 63% 63%

71% 72%66%

56%51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Grade

Teachersvsenrolment

Category1 Category2 Category3 Category4 Total Cat.1-3%ofteacherswithpost-graduateteacherqualificaGons

2008 21.2% 22.3% 19.7% 27.2% 23.5% 20.8%2012 24.9% 26.2% 24.6% 30.0% 27.3% 25.1%

Pupil-teacherraGo2008 26.7 27.9 28.2 27.4 27.6 27.72012 24.2 24.8 24.8 25.5 25.1 24.7

Allteachersper1000enrolled2008 37.5 35.9 35.5 36.5 36.2 36.02012 41.2 40.3 40.3 39.2 39.9 40.5Growth 10% 12% 14% 7% 10% 12%

Teacherswithpost-graduateteacherqualificaGonsper1000students2008 7.9 8.0 7.0 9.9 8.5 7.52012 10.3 10.6 9.9 11.7 10.9 10.2

Growth 29% 32% 42% 19% 28% 36%

EnrolmentbygradeandyearbyincenGvecategory

17

Category1

Category3

Category2 Category4

‘Survivalrates’byincenGvecategory,2012

18

49%

17%

1%

70%

36%

5%

83%

60%

21%

84%

67%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Grade1 Grade5 Grade10 Grade12

Category1

Category2

Category3

Category4

ATTAINMENT AND ENROLMENT

19

Mozambique:Gr6pupils,SACMEQII&SACMEQIIIProvinces SACMEQII2000SACMEQIII2007 %-changeNiassa 5317 13944 162CaboDelgado 4660 21184 355Nampula 14514 40692 180Zambézia 13722 46396 238Tete 7269 23561 224Manica 7986 23786 198Sofala 9192 29861 225Inhambane 12531 29935 139Gaza 12063 27059 124MaputoProvince 10257 32397 216MaputoCity 24827 30429 23Total 122338 319243 161

20Source:DerivedfromSACMEQII&SACMEQIII

EnrolmentratesbyageforSACUcountries,2011(2010forSwaziland)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

BotswanaLesothoNamibiaSouthAfricaSwaziland

Enrolment by grade and year

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000std1

std2

std3

std4

std5

std6

std7

frm1

frm2

frm3

frm4

frm5

2007 20082009 20102011 20122013 2014

Botswana

01000020000300004000050000600007000080000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Grade

20082009201020112012

Namibia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Grade1

Grade2

Grade3

Grade4

Grade5

Grade6

Grade7

Form1

Form2

Form3

Form4

Form5

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Swaziland

Mozambique:%ofpopulaGonwithnoeducaGonbybirthcohortbymainregion(PanelA),byprovince(PanelB)andbygender(PanelC)

23

Mozambique:Netprimaryandsecondaryenrolmentratesbygenderandbyregion,1997,2003&2011

Male Female North Central South NaGonalPrimaryschools

EP1 1997 53.9% 48.4% 44.6% 42.2% 67.0% 53.9% 2003 59.7% 53.3% 45.5% 56.6% 79.9% 59.7% 2011 66.9% 67.3% 61.5% 66.5% 80.3% 66.9%EP2 1997 8.3% 8.8% 6.5% 8.8% 11.4% 8.6% 2003 11.4% 9.0% 6.3% 10.8% 17.5% 10.2% 2011 23.4% 25.1% 15.5% 23.1% 43.9% 24.3%

SecondaryschoolsES1 1997 1.7% 1.9% 0.5% 1.3% 3.5% 1.8% 2003 7.4% 6.9% 4.6% 4.8% 12.7% 7.2% 2011 19.9% 21.3% 10.9% 18.2% 39.1% 20.6%ES2 1997 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2003 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 2.5% 1.3% 2011 6.4% 4.8% 3.9% 4.2% 10.3% 5.6%

24

Note:NERforEP1is%ofchildrenaged6-11inGr1-5;forEP2,%ofchildrenaged12-13inGr6-7;forES1,%ofchildrenaged14-16inGr8-10;forES2,%ofchildrenaged17-18inGr11-12.

Source:CalculatedfromDHSsurveys.

REPETITION,DROPOUTANDCONSTRAINTSTOACCESS

25

Swaziland:‘pseudo-cohorts’vsactualcohorts2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Grade1 37091 411843 37034 36348 36211 36305 34791 32491

Grade2 35805 36622 37631 35610 34696 35097 35412 33812

Grade3 37158 37457 38478 38889 37181 36833 36968 36873

Grade4 34822 35180 34831 36670 36896 36248 36003 35997

Grade5 32971 34078 34389 34074 35846 36888 35978 35680

Grade6 30081 31206 32085 32574 32419 34337 35886 35023

Grade7 23183 24260 24246 24254 25055 24324 25909 27679

Form1 22059 23800 24784 24940 25448 26975 27080 27664

Form2 20811 22303 22648 22451 22954 24182 25185 25214

Form3 14343 14952 14179 13994 15077 14185 15549 16873

Form4 15553 17293 18177 17398 17273 18901 19261 19836

Form5 10307 10626 10556 11093 11144 11134 12007 12753

26Cohort 2011:Age132012:Age142013:Age152014:Age162015:Age172016:Age18

Enrolled 27605 26002 24595 23147 21748 17357

Progression of 2007 Western Cape Gr 1 learners within primary school

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Gr1 92731 16214 514 78 18 3 4

Gr2 0 71069 21749 1695 145 31 8

Gr3 0 0 61795 23763 2419 226 29

Gr4 0 0 0 56649 27846 7815 712

Gr5 0 0 0 0 49785 24561 9189

Gr6 0 0 0 0 0 46259 23671

Gr7 0 0 0 0 0 0 44058

SGllinschool 92731 87283 84058 82185 80213 78895 77671

Repeaters 0 16214 22263 25536 30428 32636 33613

Dropout 0 5448 3225 1873 1972 1318 1224

Cum.Dropout 0 5448 8673 10546 12518 13836 15060

TeacherissuesinMozambique

•  45%ofteachersabsent,another21%notinclassteaching

•  44%ofprincipalsabsent•  Only60%oflowerprimaryteacherscouldgivethecorrectanswertoasimplesubtracGonproblem,86–55

•  TeacherpedagogyweakerthaninotherAfricancountrieswhereServiceDeliveryIndicatorsweremeasured

(Source:Molina&MarGn2015)

28

EDUCATIONQUALITY/COGNITIVEOUTCOMES

29

PerformanceininternaGonaleducaGonalevaluaGonsinPISAmetricsbypercapitaGDP(PPP$),2011

Botswana

Lesotho Namibia

South Africa

Swaziland

200

300

400

500

600

scor

e in

PIS

A-m

etric

s

6 8 10 12log of GDP per capita, 2011 PPP$

Score in PISA metricsSource: International performance in Pisa metrics based on estimates by Gustafsson

ReadingscoresinSACMEQIII

468 476495 497

535549

300

350

400

450

500

550

600Malaw

i

Zambia

Lesotho

Mozam

biqu

e

Ugand

a

SouthAfric

a

Nam

ibia

Zimba

bwe

SACM

EQIII

Botswan

a

Zanzibar

Kenya

Swaziland

Mau

riGus

Seyche

lles

Tanzan

ia

MeanRe

adingscore

Botswana:PerformanceinjointTIMSS/PIRLStest %whoreachhighinternaGonalbenchmark

(550)%whoreachlowinternaGonal

benchmark(400)

All3subjects

Reading Maths ScienceAll3

subjectsReading Maths Science

Australia 22 42 35 36 86 93 91 92CzechRepublic 21 50 30 45 92 98 93 96SlovakRepublic 21 44 30 44 89 96 91 94Lithuania 21 39 43 31 92 97 96 95Italy 18 46 28 37 90 98 93 95Sweden 18 47 25 44 91 98 93 95Romania 17 32 28 37 73 86 79 84Poland 12 39 17 29 83 95 87 91Spain 9 30 17 28 82 94 87 92UAE 6 14 12 14 48 64 64 61Iran 4 13 9 16 57 76 64 72Azerbaijan 3 9 21 13 55 82 72 65SaudiArabia 2 8 7 12 43 65 55 63Botswana(Gr.6) 3 9 7 7 37 56 60 43Honduras(Gr.6) 2 11 3 8 43 74 49 60Morocco(Gr.6) 0 1 2 1 8 21 26 15

PerformanceinPIRLS2006inEnglandandSA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

CumulaG

ve%ofstude

nts

ScoreinPIRLS2006

SA

England

Mozambique:PerformanceinGr.3Portuguesetest(marksoutof24)

0.02

.04

.06

.08

Den

sity

0 5 10 15 20 25Scoreoutof24

North CentralSouth

33% 37%

6%

29%

15% 10%

10%

12%

33%24%

31%

29%

18%25%

46%

27%

1% 3% 7% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

North Centre South Total

Level3

Level2

Level1

BelowLevel1

Absent

34

Source:Derivedfrom2016Grade3testdata

Namibia:RepeGGonanddropoutratesbygrade,2008-2011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Gr1 Gr2 Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10

2008200920102011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Gr1 Gr2 Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10

Namibia:Enrolmentbyageandgrade,2012

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25Age

Grade1

Grade2

Grade3

Grade4

Grade5

Grade6

Grade7

Grade8

Grade9

Grdae10

Grade11

Grade12

Lesotho:

Enrolmentbygradeanddistrict,2016

&NetenrolmentbyquinGleandgender,2009

37

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

std1 std2 std3 std4 std5 std6 std7 frm1 frm2 frm3 frm4 frm5

Districtsenrolmentbygrade,2016

THABA-TSEKA BUTHA-BUTHE LERIBE BEREA MASERU

MAFETENG MOHALESHOEK QUTHING QACHASNEK MOKHOTLONG

Primarynetenrolmentrate Secondarynetenrolmentrate

Male Female Total Male Female Total QuinDle1 87.0 94.3 90.5 6.7 14.8 10.7 QuinDle2 90.4 97.2 93.8 15.3 27.1 21.0 QuinDle3 94.2 96.7 95.4 24.9 38.1 33.2 QuinDle4 94.5 98.0 96.2 37.0 51.6 44.4 QuinDle5 97.8 97.0 97.4 59.9 61.8 61.0 Total 92.8 96.6 94.7 28.8 38.7 34.1

Someissues

•  Reasonsfordropout•  RepeDDonpolicy&primaryexaminaDons•  Effectofdistance/remoteness:

– Boardingschools– Teacherassignment

•  Shiasto“outcomesbased”curriculum•  Salariesvsotherexpenditureslow•  Teachersupplyandtraining,assignment•  Technicalschooltrack?

38