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FLYING HIGH, SPREADING WINGS

CO-LOCATED EVENTS

AIRPORT SECURITYM I D D L E E A S T

7-9 May 2018

ORGANISED BY

INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01

WHO’S BIG - AND BETTER?..........................................................................................................................02

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – DIVERGENT VIEWS....................................................................03

ATM - SMOOTH AND SAFE SKIES..............................................................................................................04

AIRPORTS & AIRLINES ARE GROWING...................................................................................................05

PASSENGERS DRIVING AIRCRAFT DEMAND .......................................................................................06

INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01






INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01






INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01






Introduction 1

Who’s big - and better? 3

Global economic outlook – divergent views 5

Atm - smooth and safe skies 7

Airports & airlines are growing 11

Passengers driving aircraft demand 12

Airport infrastructure – a big ticket growth 13

Airports capacity expansions 15

CONTENT

After suffering socio-economic upheavals and geo-political storms following the debilitating global financial crisis in 2008, the aviation industry is soaring new heights and gaining solid strength. The first globally all encompassing ‘synchronized recovery’ in a decade is giving a broad-based economic upswing.

www.theairportshow.com

INTRODUCTIONEver since the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of 1929-30, the economic growth and financial stability of the world has remained tumul-tuous. Several economic sectors, especially civil aviation, have gone topsy-turvy since the past decade.

The debilitating crisis proved one thing without any doubt: the modern world is truly interconnected and that social and economic challenges do not stay long. The global crisis was the most serious shock to the world economy in 80 years.

Since then, world economic growth has been slow - and troubled. In 2016, global economic growth was the weakest since the financial crisis, but it has been recovering since the first half of 2017, and has exhibited ‘moderate’ growth after six years of slowing down. It is the first ‘globally synchronized recovery’ for all areas and every major economy since the financial crisis.

International organizations have upgraded their economic growth projections for 2017 and 2018 – and even beyond. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy will grow 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in the coming year, much higher than the average rate in recent years. In Amer-ica, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, ‘all the burners are firing at once’, as The Economist puts it.

Like many other industries, the growth and profitability of the aviation industry is linked to the global economic upheavals and oil price fluctuations. Since 2008, it has not run on full steam due to global economic conditions.

The trajectory of the global aviation industry is pretty much like that of an aircraft. At times, it takes off for the high skies and at times, it dips to ground levels.

In between these highs and lows, lies the story of the industry – of its survival, of the new and emerging trends that fuel its growth.

This growth will place extra strain on airports that are already creaking at the seams.

It is argued that development of airport infrastructure has lagged behind travel growth in almost ma-jor parts of the world. Traffic at major airports is already exceeding the planned capacity while other airports are starting to experience congestion. The airport infrastructure is under massive pressure. A good airport can complement a great travel experience. Almost every country in the world is in the race to build new airports or expanding the existing facilities to meet future demands.

It observed: “Airports are a unique class of asset. They offer greater potential for growth than more traditional infrastructure assets. Unlike more traditional infrastructure assets, airports serve airlines as their primary clients and therefore share in the fortunes and woes of a highly cyclical industry.”

Angela Gittens of Airports Council International (ACI), remarked: “Simply put, airports are capital intensive businesses highly dependent on economies of scale. Even in a downturn, airports have to invest to provide capacity for the future. The aviation sector is definitely going to grow. There will be winners and losers but growth is inevitable.”

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger numbers are likely to surge in the next couple of decades. IATA expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel by air in 2035, nearly double the present day’s 3.8 billion level. Its 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast report are based on an annual compound growth rate of 3.7% a year.

According to Oxford Economics, an investment of US$90 billion is projected to go into the aviation industry in the Middle East alone; more than three-fourths of which in the six Arabian Gulf states, by the year 2020 as the region emerges as the world’s newest travel hubs.

The Middle East region is projected to handle 400 million air passengers by 2020, with the AGCC’s share being 250 million, including over 100 million by Dubai’s two international airports. Other star airports making their mark are Abu Dhabi and Doha, with more significant growth also coming from Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Bahrain is also trying to carve up more share of the growing market.

The Middle East will grow strongly (4.8%) and will see an extra 244 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2035. The UAE will enjoy strong growth of 5.9%, with the total mar-ket size touching 414 million passengers. By 2020, Dubai International is estimated to receive 126.5 million passengers, almost 30% higher than its original assessments a decade ago.

According to the Arab Air Carriers Organization (AACO), Middle East-based airlines currently ac-count for over 8% of the global air transport industry. These same airlines are collectively growing at 10% annually, double the global 5% average.

The Middle East is home to the youngest fleet in the world, with a total of more than 700 aircraft, and has the greatest number of aircraft on order anywhere in the world. Indeed, by 2020, the Middle East is forecast to lead the world passenger traffic growth. Experts forecasts the region will need 869 air-craft, valued at US$115 billion, over the next 20 years.

‘For tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today’, so goes the proverb. The world aviation map is being redrawn due to the sweeping socio-economic and geo-political changes in the world, es-pecially the Middle East, Arabian Gulf, Africa and South Asia.

This forward-looking study examines the aviation industry outlook and future growth trends and in-vestments in airport infrastructure, among others. It offers insights into how the US$74 trillion global economy (in nominal terms) will behave as the world gets to observe 10 years of global financial crisis.

In a recent report, PwC, the world’s leading consultancy company, says the propensity to fly is affected by a lot of different, interrelated forces – economic health of a country, demographic changes, market maturity, geographical features and competition.

1 2

The 10 biggest economies that matter the most in the world. The economy of the US is the larg-est in the world. At US$18 trillion, it represents a quarter share of the global economy (24.3%). The US has been the world’s biggest economy since 1871.

China follows, with US$11 trillion, or 14.8% of the world economy. Japan is in third place with an economy of US$4.4 trillion, which repre-sents almost 6% of the world economy. Europe-an countries take the next three places on the list: Germany in fourth position, with a US$3.3 trillion economy; the UK in fifth with US$2.9 trillion; and France in sixth with US$2.4 trillion.

India is in seventh place with US$2 trillion, and Italy in eighth with an economy of over US$1.8 trillion. Ninth place goes to Brazil, with an econ-omy worth almost US$1.8 trillion. In 10th posi-tion is Canada, with an economy of over US$1.5 trillion. A recent report says that the world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to technology-driven productivity.

WHO’S BIG - AND BETTER?

3 4

5 605 06

Differing economic performance in major advanced countries has led to divergent monetary policies. The global economy is enter-ing an increased period of political volatility, particularly in advanced economies, while real consumer spending in emerging and developing markets expected to strengthen.

The MSCI ACWI Index of stocks from emerging and advanced economies has risen in the past five quarters, its longest stretch of gains since the 2007-08 financial crisis. Global gross domestic product is projected to increase by 3.4% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

WORLD BANK

From 2017 to 2018, global growth is expected to rise even further to 2.9%. The world economy will pick up speed, helped by steadier commodity prices and a pickup in global trade.

WORLD TRADE ORGANISA-TION (WTO)

Global economic growth has been unbalanced since the financial crisis, but for the first time in several years all regions

of the world economy should experience a synchronized upturn in 2017. The recovery of world trade in 2017 and 2018 is based on expected world real GDP growth at market exchange rates of 2.7% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION & DEVELOPMENT (OECD)

Global growth is expected to pick-up modestly with upside risks. Confidence is increasing

and investment and trade are picking up from low levels. Growth is broad based. Changes to technology, consumer prefer-ences and trade are occurring simultaneously.

The mood in the global econo-my is brighter. In summary, the global economic outlook is better, but not good enough to sustainably improve citizens’ well-being.

UNITED NATIONS (UN)

The projections made in the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2017modest recovery in global growth for 2017-2018 stands well. Helped by a moderate recovery in trade and investment, world gross product is expected to expand by 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.

SOCIETE GENERALE

After several years of weak

growth, there will be a welcome upturn in global economic activity, leading to a modest increase in inflation. After a protracted period of sluggish-ness, global activity has begun to pick up and is expected to continue.

FITCH RATINGS

2018 global growth is to be the strongest in a decade. Faster growth reflects a synchronized improvement across both advanced and emerging market economies.

FOCUS ECONOMICS

The Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) economy is struggling with the reduction in crude oil production and lower-than-expected prices for oil. Growth will decelerate further in 2017. Our economists expect GDP to rise 2.1% in 2017 and 3.3% in 2018.

WORLD BANK

Possible protectionism in advanced economies should not deter export-oriented growth in South Asia, a region that could even benefit from the backlash against globalization. Regional GDP growth is expected to rise to 6.8% in 2017 and 7.1% in 2018. South Asian economies also stand to gain from the observed recovery in advanced economies, which are their largest export markets.

INSTITUTE OF INTERNATION-AL FINANCE

The UAE’s economic growth will accelerate to 4.4% in 2018 as global growth is expected to pick up steam from 2017, driven by rebound in investment, manu-facturing and trade. The growth is expected to rise to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.

Global gross domestic prod-uct is projected to increase by 3.4% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, accord-ing to the median fore-cast of econo-mists surveyed by Bloomberg.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – DIVERGENT VIEWSDiffering economic performance in major advanced countries has led to divergent monetary policies. The global economy is entering an increased period of political volatility, particularly in advanced economies, while real consumer spending in emerging and devel-oping markets expected to strengthen.

The MSCI ACWI Index of stocks from emerging and advanced economies has risen in the past five quarters, its longest stretch of gains since the 2007-08 financial crisis. Global gross domes-tic product is projected to increase by 3.4% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

investment and trade are pick-ing up from low levels. Growth is broad based. Changes to tech-nology, consumer preferences and trade are occurring simulta-neously.

The mood in the global economy is brighter. In summary, the glob-al economic outlook is better, but not good enough to sustain-ably improve citizens’ well-be-ing.

UNITED NATIONS (UN)The projections made in the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2017modest recovery in global growth for 2017-2018 stands well. Helped by a moderate recovery in trade and investment, world gross product is expected to expand by 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.

SOCIETE GENERALE After several years of weak growth, there will be a welcome upturn in global economic activ-ity, leading to a modest increase in inflation. After a protracted period of sluggishness, global activity has begun to pick up and is expected to continue.

FITCH RATINGS2018 global growth is to be the strongest in a decade. Faster growth reflects a synchronized improvement across both ad-vanced and emerging market economies.

FOCUS ECONOMICSThe Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) economy is struggling with the reduction in crude oil production and low-er-than-expected prices for oil. Growth will decelerate further in 2017. Our economists expect GDP to rise 2.1% in 2017 and 3.3% in 2018.

WORLD BANKPossible protectionism in ad-vanced economies should not deter export-oriented growth in South Asia, a region that could even benefit from the backlash against globalization. Regional GDP growth is expected to rise to 6.8% in 2017 and 7.1% in 2018. South Asian economies also stand to gain from the ob-served recovery in advanced economies, which are their larg-est export markets.

INSTITUTE OF INTERNA-TIONAL FINANCEThe UAE’s economic growth will accelerate to 4.4% in 2018 as global growth is expected to pick up steam from 2017, driven by rebound in investment, manu-facturing and trade. The growth is expected to rise to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.

WORLD BANKFrom 2017 to 2018, global growth is expected to rise even further to 2.9%. The world econ-omy will pick up speed, helped by steadier commodity prices and a pickup in global trade.

WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION (WTO)Global economic growth has been unbalanced since the fi-nancial crisis, but for the first time in several years all regions of the world economy should

experience a synchronized up-turn in 2017. The recovery of world trade in 2017 and 2018 is based on expected world real GDP growth at market ex-change rates of 2.7% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION & DEVELOPMENT (OECD)Global growth is expected to pick-up modestly with upside risks. Confidence is increasing and

Global gross domestic prod-uct is project-ed to increase by 3.4% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, ac-cording to the median fore-cast of econo-mists surveyed by Bloomberg.

7 8

ATM - SMOOTH AND SAFE SKIESThe credit of flying being the fastest and safest mode of transport goes to Air Traffic Management (ATM), which oversees an incredible 100,000-plus flights, take off and land every day globally.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airports are projected to handle 40 million flights in 2017, likely to be one of the best performance years.

SOUTH ASIAAn average of 431 aircraft movements a day is handled by the Pakistan Civil Avia-

tion Authority.

Indian carriers logged over 9.5 million domestic and international aircraft

movements in the FY2017.

At the Indira Gandhi International (IGI) in New Delhi, aircraft movements per hour will increased to 105 aircraft movements from 75 by 2018. Mumbai has one plane taking-off or landing in 65 seconds, making it the world’s busiest single runway airport.

GULFA massive modernisation of ATM sys-tems in Kuwait is in progress which will

make it easy for its international airport (KIA) to handle about 100,000 aircraft movements annually

Qatar’s only airport, Hamad Internation-al, accomplished a new record of aircraft

movements in 2016/2017, handling 250,419 landings and take-offs during the year.

Muscat has a US$90 million hi-tech air traffic control hub to handle about 1,500

flights per day. A comprehensive modernisa-tion of the Sultanate of Oman’s ATC is under-way. Upgrades will cover new airports in Sohar, Ras al Hadd and Duqm under development.

Bahrain International Airport had 986 flights a week connecting to 52 destina-

tions in 2016. Total aircraft movements record-ed at the airport were 101,345. Aircraft move-ments are expected to go up around 11% until 2022.

Average daily flights in the UAE are ex-pected to exceed 5,000 by 2030, with

airports handling 1.62 million aircraft move-ments yearly.

The Saudi Arabian airports have been re-cording a substantial rise of over nine%

in flight movements with close to 700,000 flights being handled a year.

FAR EASTThe Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) handled 412,525 flight move-

ments, with the highest being 939 flights in a single day.

Vietnam expects traffic movement to double by 2024, from 734,000 flights in

2016. By 2030, the Southeast Asian country’s ATC provision will reach 1.5 million flights, tri-ple its previous size.

Kuala Lumpur International Airport is constructing a new US$146 million Air

Traffic Control (ATC) complex to increase the aircraft landing from 78 to 108 per hour.

Changi Airport in Singapore, the world’s sixth busiest for international traffic,

witnessed a growth of 4.1% in aircraft move-ments in 2016 to reach the 360,490 mark.

EUROPEMalta International Airport (MIA) says a total of 34,283 aircraft movements were

recorded in H1 2017, an upturn of 15% in air-craft movements was logged.

ASEAN, a socio-economic collaboration of 10 Southeast Asian nations is poised to become the fourth-largest market—after the EU, US, and China—by 2030 and is witnessing massive air traffic growth each passing year.

A new milestone has been crossed by Sweden in 2016 with 726,000 aircraft

movements in its airspace.

Dutch airport, Schiphol, is projected to have 500,000 aircraft movements until

2020.

Munich Airport witnessed a sharp in-crease in aircraft movements in 2016 to

394,430.

OTHERSLondon City Airport will be able to serve 111,000 flight movements by 2025.

New Zealand is replacing its current ATM platforms - domestic airspace to be

up and running in 2020 and oceanic airspace in 2021. Air traffic volumes are to grow by 50% over the next decade.

Thanks to the 5% growth continuing for two consecutive years, European airports served more travellers than ever before with the commercial aircraft movement gaining more ground.

Aircraft take-offs and landings at the 91 Canadian airports totalled 5.5 million

movements in 2016, virtually unchanged from a year earlier.

In the US, the Federal Aviation Adminis-tration (FAA) said around 5,000 aircraft

are in the sky at any given time with 43,684 av-erage daily flights handled by it in 2016.

The aircraft movements to/from and within the Middle East are likely to increase to 2,346,000 in 2025 at an average annual growth rate of 7.6%.

ATM has been defined by the ICAO as the: ‘dy-namic, integrated management of air traffic and airspace — safely, economically and efficiently — through the provision of facilities and seamless services in collaboration with all parties.’

To fully support a globally harmonized air naviga-tion system, it had developed the Global Air Navi-gation Plan (GANP).

ATM is about the procedures, technology and hu-man resources that make sure the aircraft is guid-ed safely through the sky and on the ground and airspace is managed to accommodate the chang-ing needs of air traffic over time.

ATM is about the proce-dures, technology and human resources that make sure the aircraft is guided safely through the sky and on the ground

9 10

The airports performance makes it clear that ATM is becoming increasingly critical to the avi-ation industry’s growth and expansion, especial-ly in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia which has been registering impressive growth, year after year.

ATM is witnessing improvements brought by dig-ital transformation and is brimming with innova-tion and growth.

A number of measures are being taken to help re-duce costs, cut airport congestion, improve pas-senger safety and enhance the customer experi-ence while minimising the environmental impact.

As airspace continues to grow ever more busy and complex, the role and responsibilities of ATM has gained momentum and importance. Better runway and airspace management has been iden-tified as the way out with great potential.

In addition to ground-based radar systems, satel-lite surveillance is bringing larger coverage, more precise localisation and new communication methods as part of routine operations. Much of today’s emerging technology such as voice rec-ognition, eye tracking, holograms and augmented reality could simplify the lives of tomorrow’s air traffic controllers.

The Geneva-based Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), in its research report Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders, highlighted the global growth in flight movements now and in future.

It says global airlines operate a total fleet of over 25,000 aircraft, serving almost 4,000 airports through a route network of several million kilo-metres managed by over 173 ANSPs.

The Air Traffic Control (ATC) market, according to Markets and Markets, is projected to reach US$56.07 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 12.75% during 2017-2022.

Airspace in the Middle East is dealing with rap-id aviation growth. Airspace is a finite resource, particularly in the Middle East where up to 60% is reserved for military use.

The ICAO’s Middle East Airspace Enhancement Programme (MAEP) wants to harmonise airspace systems and procedures and achieve commonal-ities, locally and regionally – here all ANSPs are state-run.

Not long ago, the Arabian Peninsula used to have a single Flight Information Region (FIR) based in Bahrain, but it has been broken into six FIRs. The Civil Air Navigation Services (CANSO) has de-scribed the Middle East airspace as “fragmented

and satu-rated”.

The total aircraft movements to/from and within the Middle East re-gion are estimated to increase to 2,346,000 in 2025 at an average annual growth rate of 7.6%.

Over 50% of Middle East’s airline traffic and over 65% of business aviation traffic is concentrated in the six members-countries of Arabian Gulf Coop-eration Council (AGCC).

Strongly supported by ICAO and IATA, CANSO, through the Middle East ANSP, Airspace User and Stakeholder Engagement (MEAUSE) is focus-ing on combining the future equipage plans of air-space users with the investment plans of ANSPs.

The Dubai Air Navigation Services (DANS), Mid-dle East’s biggest ANSP, is focusing improve-ments to its operations in increasing airspace efficiency through investing in cutting edge tech-nology, manpower, safety, research and develop-ment that will enable it meet with the forecasted growth.

The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority’s (GCAA) strategic plan notes that increasing de-mand for air travel will continue to challenge the

efficiencies of the ATM system.

It stated “While the hub-and-spoke system will remain largely the same as today for major airline operations, the demand for a more point-to-point service will create new markets and spur increas-es in low-cost carriers, air taxi operations, and on-demand services.”

It asserted that many airports would therefore experience significant increases in unscheduled traffic, while many airports that support sched-uled air carrier traffic are forecast to grow and experience congestion or delays if efforts to in-crease their capacity fall short. As a result, ad-ditional airspace flexibility will be necessary to accommodate not only the increasing growth, but also the increasing air traffic complexity, it added.

The UAE has a total of 120,000 square kilometres of airspace, with 35 international air corridors. According to GCAA, UAE FIR will have over 1.13 million flight movements by 2020 and 1.63 mil-lion flight movements by 2030.

Aircraft has to follow a pre-determined route re-gardless of wind conditions, leading to unneces-sary fuel consumption, excess carbon emissions, longer flight times, increased noise impact, flight delays and air traffic congestion.

Better management of the airspace is among the serious challenges that the aviation authorities face in their growth aspirations.

Nearly 60% of the AGCC airspace has some form of restriction, much of it military, denying com-mercial aircraft the use of the most efficient flight corridors, creating unnecessary added costs for airlines.

The GCAA and Airbus ProSky has carried out the UAE Airspace Enhancement programme, begin-ning 2013. In the Arabian Gulf, ATM delays are becoming a thing of past. Capacity improvement of the UAE airspace was highlighted in a stake-holder study carried out by the GCAA, which says that growth in scheduled and general aviation aircraft is expected to increase point-to-point and direct routings.

According to Air Transport Action Group’s study, Revolutionising Air Traffic Management, the Mid-dle East region’s ANSPs, with 13 FIRs, control more than 1.7 million movements between 15 international airports, as well as 700,000 move-ments between 45 domestic airports every year.

ICAO and CANSO recommended that ANSPs modernize their infrastructure by investing in digital communications, surveillance and naviga-

tion (CNS) technology. The UAE is the only GCC country operating with reserve air space.

An IATA official commented on the Middle East: “When it comes to the 30-passenger terminals on our watch list, based on the current capacity and annual growth rates, we have 15 terminals which have already reached full capacity today. One that will reach full capacity by 2017, five by 2019, three by 2020, two by 2021, three by 2023 and one by 2027.”

Oxford Economics commissioned report by NATS in 2015 to estimate the economic efficiency gains from ATC improvements in the Middle East re-marked that airports have engaged in substantial growth programmes to supply more capacity.

The region’s available airspace and air traffic ca-pability, however, has not kept up with the region’s ambition. The region’s air traffic management has split into different bodies, going from one Flight Information Region (FIR) in Bahrain in 1954 to six distinct ones starting in the early 1980s, with handover between the regions creating delays in flight times.

The UAE FIR has experienced a constant rise in air traffic over the past decade, says the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA). Dubai, Abu Dha-bi and Sharjah airports contributed to the rapid growth in aircraft movements. In 1986, there were just 342 daily aircraft movements.

The number has surged to an average of 2,250 in 2014 — more than six times the rate in less than 30 years. By 2030, the GCAA anticipates at least 5,100 daily aircraft movements, making the UAE one of the busiest airspaces in the world. At the same time, the number of aircraft registered in the UAE is expected to rise from 762 in 2014 to 1,366 by 2030.

According to the UAE, Airspace Forest says the total number of flights will increase to approxi-mately 1,856,909 in 2030. The cumulative annual average growth rate is estimated to be 3.2% from 2020 to 2030 for total civilian operations in UAE airspace.

According to the Airports Council International (ACI), traffic at the world’s 20 busiest air passen-ger hubs grew 4.7% with over 1.4 billion passen-gers passing through in 2016. Dubai secured the third position again. IATA, in its latest 2016 annu-al report remarked: “Threats are emerging to the success story of the Gulf carriers, including grow-ing air traffic management delays.”

It’s time to act, fast.

Ever since the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of 1929-30, the economic growth and financial stability of the world has remained tumul-tuous. Several economic sectors, especially civil aviation, have gone topsy-turvy since the past decade.

The debilitating crisis proved one thing without any doubt: the modern world is truly interconnected and that social and economic challenges do not stay long. The global crisis was the most serious shock to the world economy in 80 years.

Since then, world economic growth has been slow - and troubled. In 2016, global economic growth was the weakest since the financial crisis, but it has been recovering since the first half of 2017, and has exhibited ‘moderate’ growth after six years of slowing down. It is the first ‘globally synchronized recovery’ for all areas and every major economy since the financial crisis.

International organizations have upgraded their economic growth projections for 2017 and 2018 – and even beyond. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy will grow 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in the coming year, much higher than the average rate in recent years. In America, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, ‘all the burners are firing at once’, as The Economist puts it.

Like many other industries, the growth and profitability of the aviation industry is linked to the global economic upheavals and oil price fluctuations. Since 2008, it has not run on full steam due to global economic conditions.

The trajectory of the global aviation industry is pretty much like that of an aircraft. At times, it takes

off for the high skies and at times, it dips to ground levels.

In between these highs and lows, lies the story of the industry – of its survival, of the new and emerg-ing trends that fuel its growth. This growth will place extra strain on airports that are already creaking at the seams.

It is argued that development of airport infrastructure has lagged behind travel growth in almost major parts of the world. Traffic at major airports is already exceeding the planned capacity while other airports are starting to experience congestion. The airport infrastructure is under massive pressure. A good airport can complement a great travel experience. Almost every country in the world is in the race to build new airports or expanding the existing facilities to meet future demands.

It observed: “Airports are a unique class of asset. They offer greater potential for growth than more traditional infrastructure assets. Unlike more traditional infrastructure assets, airports serve airlines as their primary clients and therefore share in the fortunes and woes of a highly cyclical industry.”

Angela Gittens of Airports Council International (ACI), remarked: “Simply put, airports are capital intensive businesses highly dependent on economies of scale. Even in a downturn, airports have to invest to provide capacity for the future. The aviation sector is definitely going to grow. There will be winners and losers but growth is inevitable.”

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger numbers are likely to surge in the next couple of decades. IATA expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel by air in 2035, nearly double the present day’s 3.8 billion level. Its 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast report are based on an annual compound growth rate of 3.7% a year.

According to Oxford Economics, an investment of US$90 billion is projected to go into the aviation industry in the Middle East alone; more than three-fourths of which in the six Arabian Gulf states, by the year 2020 as the region emerges as the world’s newest travel hubs.

The Middle East region is projected to handle 400 million air passengers by 2020, with the AGCC’s share being 250 million, including over 100 million by Dubai’s two international airports. Other star airports making their mark are Abu Dhabi and Doha, with more significant growth also coming from Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Bahrain is also trying to carve up more share of the growing market.

The Middle East will grow strongly (4.8%) and will see an extra 244 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2035. The UAE will enjoy strong growth of 5.9%, with the total market size touching 414 million passengers. By 2020, Dubai International is estimated to receive 126.5 million passengers, almost 30% higher than its original assessments a decade ago.

According to the Arab Air Carriers Organization (AACO), Middle East-based airlines currently account for over 8% of the global air transport industry. These same airlines are collectively growing at 10% annually, double the global five% average.

The Middle East is home to the youngest fleet in the world, with a total of more than 700 aircraft, and has the greatest number of aircraft on order anywhere in the world. Indeed, by 2020, the Middle East is forecast to lead the world passenger traffic growth. Experts forecasts the region will need 869 aircraft, valued at US$115 billion, over the next 20 years.

‘For tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today’, so goes the proverb. The world aviation map is being redrawn due to the sweeping socio-economic and geo-political changes in the world, especially the Middle East, Arabian Gulf, Africa and South Asia.

This forward-looking study examines the aviation industry outlook and future growth trends and investments in airport infrastructure, among others. It offers insights into how the US$74 trillion global economy (in nominal terms) will behave as the world gets to observe 10 years of global financial crisis.

INTRODUCTION

In a recent report, PwC, the world’s leading consultancy company, says the propensity to fly is affected by a lot of different, interrelated forces – economic health of a country, demographic changes, market maturity, geographical features and competition.

01 02

11 12

AIRPORTS & AIRLINES ARE GROWINGThe airline industry grew from a single aircraft, one route and a lone passenger. It now connects over 3.7 billion passengers and 50 million tonnes of cargo over 50,000 routes with 100,000 flights a day. About 57 million jobs are supported by avi-ation worldwide and it makes possible US$2.2 trillion worth of economic activity. By value, over 35% of the goods traded internationally are trans-ported by air.

In 2016, airlines, according to IATA, achieved net revenues of US$638 billion and the year 2017 is also likely to see US$671 billion in revenues. 2017 is expected to be the eighth year in a row of aggre-gate airline profitability.

IATA represents the interests of 275 member-air-lines in 120 countries that account for 84% of the total number of flights worldwide.

According to the Airports Council Internation-al (ACI), there are currently 17,678 commercial airports in the world - the facilities which receive airliners, cargo and business aircraft. If one would count all airports, aerodromes and airfields, both civilian and military throughout the world, the fig-ure rises to 41,788.

The trade association of the world’s airports at the start of 2017 disclosed that its 623 members are operating 1,940 airports in 176 countries.

PASSENGERS DRIVING AIRCRAFT DEMAND In 2017, commercial aircraft are projected to carry nearly four billion passengers, according to IATA, nearly double the number 12 years ago, and equivalent to half of the world’s population - though the number represents individual jour-neys rather than unique passengers.

Transporting this whopping number of people requires a huge number of aircraft. According to aviation analysts Ascend, the total number of air-craft currently in service is approximately 23,600 - that includes passenger and cargo aircraft. It reckons there are 2,500 more in storage. An es-timate by airliners.net says all commercial and military planes (but not light aircraft) are about 39,000 in the world - and that over the course of history, there have been more than 150,000.

International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) says that the “global air transport network” dou-bles in size at least once every 15 years, and is expected in 2030. Boeing, one of the world’s big-gest aircraft manufacturer, says there is a need for 39,620 new planes over the next 20 years.

By 2037, there will be 63,220 aircraft in the world - minus those that become out of service. Boe-ing and Airbus, the two largest aircraft manufac-turers, have orders for more than 17,000, while Boeing’s backlog is 5,705. According to FlightRa-dar24, which tracks aircraft around the world, there are over 16,000 planes in the air at any giv-en time on peak traffic days.

The combined fleet strength of all global airlines will touch 40,120 planes by 2036, against 18,890 in 2016 as some of the additional planes are re-quired for replacing existing aircraft.

Around 78 countries had posted in excess of 10% annual growth in air traffic. .

The Middle East region’s air passenger traffic has surged 16 times in the last 10 years between 2006 and 2016.

New routes and evolving airline business models are driving the need for 34,170 passengers and 730 freighter aircraft, worth a combined total of $5.3 trillion. The Middle East airlines will need 2,526 new planes over the next two decades - un-til 2036, mainly driven by passenger growth and increasing connectivity network. Of the total de-mand, 2,010 aircraft are additional demand, while 516 planes are for replacing an aging fleet. This will take the total number of aircraft in the Middle East region to 3,186 planes by 2036, from 1,178 aircraft at the beginning of 2017.

John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer (COO), Cus-tomers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft, remarked, while making a presentation on the Global Mar-ket Forecast 2017-2036, that the annual average economic growth in the Middle East is estimat-ed at 3.4% for the next two decades. Global de-mand for aircraft above 100 seats is set to more than double, which is equivalent to a demand for 34,900 additional planes, in the next two decades until 2036. Demand for additional commercial planes is mostly driven by an anticipated 4.4% an-nual growth in air traffic.

AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE – A BIG TICKET GROWTHAirports require huge investments - and there is no dearth of investments for the airport projects.

A whopping US$1.1 trillion in airport infrastruc-ture projects are planned or under way, globally.

The Middle East has the second lowest invest-ment level overall, after North America. Howev-er, investment at existing airports is high in the Middle East, exceeding that of Europe and North America. According to a Frost & Sullivan study, Airports 2030, airport operations and business models are rapidly changing, driven by competi-tive forces and capacity constraints.

Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation (CAPA) research showed US$255 billion being invested in new airport projects around the world. Together with US$845 billion investment at existing airports new runways, terminal buildings and runways, means US$1.1 trillion in airport projects are planned or under way within a timescale that con-tinues, in some extreme cases, for the next four decades. Currently, there are 415 new airport projects in the world.

An earlier report by CAPA revealed the total val-ue of airport construction projects, either new ones or continuations of existing ones at the start of 2015 as being US$543 billion globally. Of this, US$84.5 billion worth of airport projects are in the Middle East, a total of 64 projects.

According to CAPA’s Construction and Capital Expenditure Database, there are currently over 2,300 airport construction projects worldwide, varying from US$1 million to US$20 billion, and over 300 new (green or brown field, or General Aviation extension) airport developments. After

China, the next big market for airport investment is India.

Timetric’s Construction Intelligence Center (CIC) report, revealed airports, as opposed to other industries, experienced an av-erage 5% growth in passenger traffic since 2008-2009. The total value of airport construction pro-jects globally is worth US$638.7 billion.

In an age of increasing air travel, bigger airports are needed all the time by cities around the world. Every decade, major cities around the world re-quire new airports. With the increase in air travel, along with increased competition among airlines servicing strategically important regions, the de-mand for new destinations and hubs becomes greater.

Airports contribute tremendously to the economy of a city - and a region. New hub airports around the world need space to grow without impedi-ment, ensuring the economy can remain healthy and vibrant. Many current airports cannot handle the capacity that is required to keep them com-petitive in the air travel market.

Since the dawn of air travel, many cities have come to find themselves with this problem. Cities, like Singapore, Denver, and Guangzhou, to name a few, have replaced their old airports completely, exchanging them for new travel hubs.

Other cities, such as Tokyo, Osaka and Seoul, sup-plemented their existing airports with new air-ports and now have two travel hubs in their me-tropolises.

Governments and airport authorities are investing significantly in airport facilities and infrastructure. Growth is especially being witnessed in those cit-ies optimally located for connecting regions and continents.

Even as new terminals, concourses and runways are built but many airports still lack the capacity to meet demand, says a report, The Threat of Our Mega and Wannabe Mega Airports.

Large transfer-driven airlines are looking to grow the size of their arrival and departure peaks. Larg-er peaks mean more passengers will arrive and depart during the busiest times, which is a ma-jor challenge for most airports’ current airfield and terminal capacity limitations. Already 47 of 55 aviation mega-cities (more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers) are schedule-constrained, according to Airbus Global Market Forecast 2016-2035.

For most of us, airports have quite a magical and imposing effect because they are opening us gates to the world that connect through different conti-nents. Throughout the world, a trend is being wit-nessed: there are more and more mega airports steadily becoming bigger and adjusting to new technical conditions. Big cities and airports are nowadays more separated from each other. For the big metropolises, it is important to have good linkage to the world flight net and thereby to at-tract travellers directly as much as possible

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AIRPORTS CAPACITY EXPANSIONS

BAHRAINThe island-nation’s only international airport US$1.1 billion million terminal is to expand the capacity to 14 million passengers a year by 2020, up from 9 million. A joint venture is developing the terminal building with a built-up area four times the size of the existing terminal. Scheduled to open in 2019, the 220,000-square-metre ter-minal is distributed over four above ground floors and a basement.

A suggestion is under discussion to include a shopping complex, cinema and a theme park, along with an ice rink. Kamal bin Ahmed Moham-med, Minister of Transportation commented: “The volume of investment being made in Bahrain aviation is the largest in the country’s history - we want to show that we are well connected.”

EGYPT Egypt is going ahead with the expansion of Sharm El-Sheikh International Airport’s Terminal 2 to take the total capacity of the airport to 9.5 million. A loan agreement has been signed for funding the development, which includes a new runway.

Sharm El-Sheikh airport has been Egypt’s fast-est-growing facility and is Africa’s third-busiest airport, with an average of 10% annual growth rate in traffic over the past decade. Egypt is also working on constructing a US$150 million pas-senger terminal at Borg El-Arab Airport, near Al-exandria. It will have a capacity of up to 4 million passengers a year but the authorities are looking at ways to reach a maximum capacity of 5.6 million passengers per year.

Two new international airports, Katameya and Sphinxwere opened, partly to lessen the pressure on Cairo International Airport. Both airports have identical terminal buildings. The number of pas-sengers across all airports in Egypt reached 26.4

million in 2016, in-cluding 22.3 mil-lion passengers on inter-national flights, accounting for 85% of all passenger traffic across all of Egypt’s airports. There are 11 inter-national airports in Egypt with their importance varying according to both passengers and flights traffic.

IRAN Iran is seeking private investors to fund a US$3 bil-lion expansion of the airports at Mehrabad, Imam Khomeini, Tabriz, Mashhad, Isfahan, Kerman and

Shiraz. It has gathered US$2.35 billion in foreign investments through MoUs and secured US$650 million in firm contracts. Italy’s SEA Group is going

to develop a new 80,000-square-metres passen-ger terminal at Mehrabad International Airport and Italy’s Vitali will develop Tabriz International Airport. The government is also looking for inves-tors to develop a new terminal at Teheran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA).

Over 18.9 million Iranian passengers travelled by air in the last Iranian year (March 2015-2016), up by 8% over the previous year. A five-year govern-ment plan says the air passengers will reach 48 million by 2022.

KUWAIT The new US$4.2 billion, four-level terminal at Ku-wait International Airport (KIA) is getting ready to open after six years to initially accommodate 13 million passengers a year, subsequently rising in phases to 25 and 50 million passengers a year.

The oil-rich country has seen passenger flow at the airport doubling in the last 8 years and is fore-cast to reach 12 million by 2020. The government has announced an investment plan for the airport expansion and modernisation to meet the antici-pated growth, including a third runway and expan-

sion of the two existing runways. A Chinese-Arab joint venture is going to develop an existing run-way at the airport worth US$492 million by 2020.

Kuwait is to spend US$15.6 billion on infrastruc-ture and other projects in financial year 2017-2018, including the KIA expansion (Terminal 2) and the completion time for the new terminal from six to four years. The government under-took an airport modernisation programme in the early 1990s valued at US$60 million, which was completed in two phases.

LEBANON Lebanon is starting the expansion of Rafik Hariri International Airport (RHIA) in Beirut which is handling over 9 million passenger of its 5 million passengers capacity. The new project will enable

the airport to handle from 12 to 18 million in the future. A number of airlines that pass through the airport are adding flights to accommodate more passengers.

OMANMuscat International Airport’s (MIA) 29-gates new terminal is scheduled for completion in 2017/18. A Bechtel team is installing a system that can process 5,500 pieces of luggage per hour and parking for 8,000 vehicles.

The first phase is set to span 580,000 square me-tres with 7,000 square metres of retail space.

Once into service, it will be capable of serving 12 million passengers a year, with the potential to accommodate up to four times that number after a series of phased expansions. MIA will have two runways capable of handling the largest passen-ger jets.

The country’s second-largest airport in Salalah can serve two million passengers per year, but fu-ture expansions aims to bring it to six million.

Over 48 airlines are flying from Muscat and Sala-lah airports to more than 69 destinations in 32

countries, along with Sultanate’s national budget carrier, Salam Air, operating since January 2017. Muscat aims to be among Top 20 airports by 2020.

Over US$12 billion has been spent in airport in-frastructure development in Oman since 2010, and US$6.1 billion has been earmarked through 2020-21 to support the completion of new re-gional airports and major terminal projects at two international airports.

Oman is developing three regional airports in Sohar, Ras Al Hadd and Duqm which are at var-ying levels of completion. The work is scheduled for completion in early 2018. Preliminary studies are now being conducted at Al Haraf, Bukha, Lima and Khasab for airports and these will take a year. According to IATA, Oman’s air passenger traffic is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 6.2% to reach 22 million passengers per year by 2034.

SAUDI ARABIA The biggest Arabian Gulf country is currently in the middle of a new wave to airport construction,

expansion and renovation. The domestic and in-ternational passenger travel in Saudi Arabia is in-

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creasing by 10% CAGR with total travel expected to surpass 140 Million by 2022. The authorities are planning to expand and build more than 25 airports by 2022.

Also, development programmes are aiming to privatize all of the airports by the next three to five years. A vigorous privatization process com-menced with both Prince Mohammed Bin Abdu-laziz Airport in Madinah and Terminal 5 at King Khaled International Airport in Riyadh.

King Abdulaziz International Airport at Jeddah and King Fahd International Airport at Dammam are next on this pedestal. The remaining airports

are expected to privatize in 2018-2022.

The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) plans the privatization of 27 Saudi airports start-ing middle-2018, in two phases, and by the end-2020, Saudi airports will become financially and administratively independent.

In a direct move to attract more foreign investors and expertise, the General Authority of Civil Avi-ation (GACA) has removed the obligation that ex-isted earlier to have a local Saudi partner.

For some airports, the limit for local investors has been capped over 25% leaving the rest of ample investment opportunities.

The privatization plan extends over a period of 18 months and would be executed in partnership with the Saudi Council of Economic and Devel-opment (SCED). There are 27 domestic airports in Saudi Arabia and four international airports. GACA plans to spend between US$10 billion and US$15 billion on building, developing and upgrad-ing airports by 2020, in cooperation with private investors.

The aim is to increase GACA’s contribution to the economy, up from over SR30 billion at present. A record 84 million passengers transited Saudi air-ports in 2016, along with more than 1.1 million flights. Saudi Arabia is trying to raise US$200 bil-

lion through stake sales in assets like airports.

The 2450-square-kilmetre-Al-Faisaliah City, to be developed, will have an airport under King Abdul Aziz International Airport management. Sudair City for Industry and Businesses and Ri-yadh-Hawtat Rani Tamim Road will have new do-mestic airports. An agreement has been signed for a new airport terminal in Yanbu after which a consortium will operate it for 30 years. Its capac-ity will increase to three million passengers per annum upon from 1.2 million on completion of the new terminal.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATESThe UAE, according to a World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Report, is the third-best globally in quality of air transport infrastructure and a world-class international hub. No wonder, the aviation indus-try contributes over AED145 billion to the coun-try’s economy, or 14.7% of GDP, says IATA in a 2010-study it developed with Oxford Economics. That figure must have been gone up considerably by now.

The General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) says the UAE airports are investing up to US$50 billion in new and expanded projects over the next 15 years, which will provide capacity for an additional 200 million passengers per annum.

The fleet of the UAE airlines - Emirates, Etihad, Air Arabia and flydubai – is projected to be 600 in 2017, up from 95 aircraft in 2004.

Dubai’s over 75 years of ‘Open Skies’ policy is per-haps the most liberal aviation regime in the world and strengthened its position as a major global trading centre. According to Oxford Economics, the aviation sector contributes US$22 billion— or 28% to Dubai’s economy.

According to the UAE government portal, there are seven international airports in the coun-try and that aviation is a vital sector of the UAE economy contributing significantly to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is expected to contribute US$53 billion (AED194.5 billion) to the country’s economy by 2020.

Aviation will contribute US$88.1 billion or 45% of the Dubai GDP by 2030. Capacity at the UAE’s airports will increase to 250 million passengers by 2020.

According to IATA, UAE will lead Middle East pas-senger growth in 2017 with an annual increase of more than 6.3%. It forecasts an additional 258 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the Middle East by 2035. Middle East car-riers reported the strongest annual traffic growth of any region globally for the fifth year running in 2016.

The AED 10.8 billion Midfield Terminal Building (MTB) at Abu Dhabi International Airport is ex-pected to be completed in 2017. The new termi-nal will be spacious enough that significantly fewer planes will have to leave from remote stands. The terminal is being delayed by two years, to 2019, it was reported. It is part of a wider ten-year (2009-

2019), AED37-40 billion airport expansion plan.

It will initially handle 27 to 30 million passengers per year once operational and cater to Etihad Air-ways and the carriers it holds stakes in. Abu Dha-bi, the UAE’s second-busiest commercial airport, handles about 25 million passengers a year.

Currently, two scheduled airlines operate from Al Ain International Airport, with new carriers and destinations to be added in the near future. Al Ain International Airport plays a vital role as the loca-tion for the UAE’s first aerospace cluster, Nibras Al Ain Aerospace Park.

Dubai has invested US$7.8 billion during the last two years to improve the infrastructure.

There is a plan underway to increase the capaci-ty of Dubai Airports to 118 million passengers by 2023 and expecting the number of passengers to increase at both the Dubai International and Al Maktoum International to 90 million by the end-2017.

Al Maktoum International will expand capacity to 26 million passengers by the end-2017, from sev-en million now. The next phase of growth will see that jump to 120 million by 2025, when Emirates will move its operations. Ultimately, total capacity is slated to reach 240 million passengers.

Dubai had secured US$3 billion in long-term fi-nancing for the expansion of its airports.

The expansion is one of three multi-billion dollar infrastructure projects that the emirate is plan-ning to fund through debt, together with the building of Dubai’s World Expo 2020 exhibition site and an extension of Dubai Metro.

The facility signifies the first stage of a larger funding plan which will transform Al Maktoum International into the primary airport for Dubai, serving up to 146 million passengers by 2025. Al Maktoum International is planned to become the main airport for Dubai as well as the home to Emirates Airlines starting in 2025.

His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of UAE and Ruler of Dubai, earlier approved a US$32 billion investment to expand the new airport, with the aim of handling up to 120 million passengers a year by 2022.

Dubai International retained its title as the world’s

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number one airport for international passengers after the hub’s annual traffic swelled to 83.6 mil-lion passengers in 2016, a robust growth of 7.2% over the previous year. Passenger traffic at Dubai International surpassed 43 million in the first half of 2017.

It expects to lure 89 million travellers in 2017, a 6.4% gain that would be the weakest in 10 years, excluding 2014, when runway repairs limited take-offs and landings for two and a half months. The airport still outperforms many rival bases in Europe - and elsewhere - and remains confident about overtaking Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson and Beijing Capital to become the world’s busiest hub in overall traffic, sooner than later.

Dubai already attracts almost eight million more passengers than chock-full London Heathrow, which it overtook in 2014 to become the world’s busiest international hub, even though both sites have only two runways apiece. Peak hours are crowded with aircraft movements, and it’s tough-er to attract carriers to operate services during the troughs in between. In 2015, Dubai Interna-tional climbed to the third spot in the world rank-ings, behind Atlanta, the main base for Delta Air Lines, and Beijing.

The Director General of the General Civil Avia-tion Authority (GCAA), Saif Al Suwaidi, expects travellers through the country’s airports to grow 6% in 2017, reaching 132 million.

The GCAA is planning to develop the Emirati Air

Traffic Control by replacing the current system with an upgraded system at a cost of AED120 mil-lion.

Sharjah International Airport’s growth is driven by the expansion of Air Arabia, established inter-national carrier routes and private aviation.

Sharjah Airport is working on the enlargement of the passenger building and is expected to increase its capacity to 25 million travellers per year.

Gama Aviation expects to open its new world class business aviation facility, costing AED110 million, in Sharjah in 2018. Sharjah airport is going to see soon an US$400 million expansion to increase ca-pacity to welcome 25 million passengers by the year 2027.

Average daily flights in the UAE are expected to exceed 5,000 by 2030, with UAE airports handling 1.62 million aircraft movements yearly. To prepare for and facilitate this remarkable growth, accord-ing to Dubai Air Navigation Services (DANS).

A UAE Airspace Restructuring study was launched in 2014 in partnership with other UAE ANSPs.

Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies have been complet-ed. These studies will allow DANS (and other UAE ANSPs) to identify airspace design solutions for operational deployment during Phase 3.

A major benefit will be the ANSPs’ ability to coop-eratively manage aviation growth in the medium and long term (2017-2030)

QATAR Qatar’s state-of-the-art international airport in Doha served over 37 million passengers in 2016 and 9.78 million passengers in the first quarter of 2017, showing a 10% increase over the previous year.

Fully opened in May 2014, Hamad Internation-al Airport (HIA) redefined the way its customers travel and do business. Its current capacity of 30 million passengers per annum can be soared to more than 50 million per annum once next phase is complete. It has a capacity to handle 8,700 pas-sengers per hour.

Spanning 22 square kilometres, one third the size of the city of Doha, 60% of the airport has been built on land reclaimed from the Arabian Gulf. Overall, it is one of the largest Greenfield airports built anywhere in the world.

It has been designed, engineered and built for the world’s largest and most advanced aircraft -tailored specifically for next generation aircraft, including the Airbus A380. Its dual runway opera-tion enables handling of 100 aircraft per hour and 360,000 annually.

Designed to accommodate 30 million passengers annually, rising to 50 million upon full completion, the airport terminal is 600,000 square metres, comprising of three concourses, 33 aircraft gates, and is expected to increase to five concourses and 65 aircraft gates in the future.

The airport boasts facilities like a five-star transit hotel, a luxury spa, squash courts and a four-storey catering facility. The airport is capable of 320,000 aircraft movements a year, thereby allowing Qa-tar Airways to continue with its expansion growth.

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Qatar is vying with Dubai and Abu Dhabi to be-come the Arabian Gulf’s transit hub with all three

cities boosting their airport capacity.

INDIAAirports in India, it is said, resembles its choked roads, with too much traffic, little infrastructure and no long-term planning and solutions in sight.

Domestic passengers crossed the 100 million mark, with most of the growth involving flights into and out of the biggest cities.

The civil aviation industry is on a high-growth tra-jectory, aiming to become the world’s third-larg-est aviation market by 2020 and the largest by 2030.

India is planning to invest over US$120 billion in the airport infrastructure development and avia-tion navigation services over the next decade with the sector poised for fast growth with the devel-opment of over 50 new airports and expansion of existing airports.

The world’s second populous country registered a growth of 14% in civil aviation sector during the last decade. With foreign direct investment (FDI) in air transport during the last decade touched the mark of US$570 million.

The Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation (CAPA) says there is massive shortfall and that India’s airport Capital Expenditure (CapEx) pipeline of US$4.9 billion is inadequate to meet the kind of expansion required. Up to 40% non-Metro airports are oper-ating beyond their capacity.

Delhi Airport is estimated to have the potential to handle up to 90 million passengers when fully developed. On current growth forecasts, Delhi is expected to be saturated by Financial Year 2023, hence planning for a second airport needs to com-

mence immediately.

Similarly, Chennai airport may not be able to grow beyond 18 million passengers due to airside chal-lenges. If so, the airport could be closed to new services by fiscal year 2018.

The CAPA estimates that airports in both south-ern cities of Bengaluru and Hyderabad will reach saturation by fiscal year 2026.

The report says that States that face particularly serious challenges include Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

The report points out that among the 30 largest non-Metro airports operated by Airports Author-ity of India (AAI), 40% are already estimated to be operating over their design capacity.

Jammu, Pune, Kozhikode, Mangaluru and Tiruchi are among the airports that will reach saturation immediately, while Thiruvananthapuram and Ma-durai airports will face saturation in fiscal year 2017.

India could run out of capacity within three to five years. Though under a new regional connectivity scheme, India has ambitious plans to open 50 un-used airports by 2020 and has also given approval for 18 Greenfield airports.

The government has envisaged development of 175 civilian airports to take the total number of operational airports up to 250 from 75 at present in the next 10-15 years. It is intended to have an airport in every city with population exceeding 10 million.

THAILANDThailand plans to enhance the capacity of its six airports in three stages, be completed by 2035.

For mid-term expansion plans, the South East Asian country has formulated a 10-year master plan for airport development. The works include the improvement and the increase of the passen-ger capacity at Suvarnabhumi International Air-

port in Bangkok.

When completed by 2025, the combined capacity of the six airports will be able to handle over 200 million passengers. Throughout the next two dec-ades, Thailand’s investment is expected at US$11 billion, says the Airports of Thailand (AOT).

PAKISTANAirports developments in Pakistan remains in an upswing mode.

A Chinese company has won a RMB2.6 billion contract to construct the Allama Iqbal Interna-

tional Airport, which will be the country’s largest airport after reconstruction. The construction is expected to begin by the end-2017.

The Gwadar International Airport, on full comple-tion, will take over Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport as the biggest and busiest airport in the country.

The Gwadar Airport is a joint venture between Pa-kistan, Oman and China. Oman provided US$17.5 million for the project, whilst China plans to invest US$662 million. Pakistan is expected to complete the project within a 30-month period, after con-struction starts in September 2017.

Small airports are also being built and given inter-national status. Among those are Deira Ismail (DI) Khan airport and Bannu Airport.

The New Islamabad International Airport has been once again delayed for opening – now likely in December 2017 - already late over two years. Once operational, it will be the first Greenfield air-port in Pakistan and also capable of handling the Airbus A380. It will be capable of serving 15 mil-lion passengers every year in its first phase. Fur-ther planned expansions will allow it to serve up to 25 million passengers every year. Preparations have started to build a third runway.

SRI LANKABandaranaike International Airport (BIA) in Co-lombo has a capacity to serve six million passen-gers a year, but it served 9.2 million passengers in 2015. BIA is the first international airport in Sri Lanka since 1964. It is equipped to handle all types of aircraft, including Boeing 747-400 me-ga-top aircraft.

The expansion is taking place and is expected to be completed by 2019, enabling it to handle 12 million passengers a year. The BIA has three cargo terminals and one passenger terminal.

BIA, which a single runway with asphalt surface, serves over 29 airlines serving about 45 desti-nations worldwide. There is a plan to construct a second runway. An agreement has been signed for the resurfacing of the runway. Construction began with the ground breaking ceremony held in January 2017.

The airport is targeting 10.5 million passengers in 2017. In the first four months of 2017 passengers

handled fell marginally to 3.1 million from 3.2 mil-lion a year earlier, despite a daytime closure of the airport for repairs.

A second international airport operates from Mattala, since 2013. The US$200 million facility is compatible with the world’s largest passenger aircraft, and has a projected capacity of five mil-lion travellers a year.

A US$400 million has been loaned to build a new terminal at the island’s main airport which suffers congestion from growing tourism.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) says the terminal would more than double capacity to 15 million passengers annually. The terminal, to be opened in 2020, would use solar energy and recycled water.

BIA will see an US$750 million development pro-ject which includes the overlay of the existing run-way, building a new passenger terminal and new aircraft parking apron.

BANGLADESHIn South Asia, Bangladesh has the third-largest economy after India and Pakistan, and has the second highest foreign exchange reserves after India, but the aviation has not developed the way it should have been.

At present, Bangladesh has three internation-al airports and seven domestic airports. Shortly, Cox’s Bazar Airport, will be turned into an inter-national airport. It will have modern taxiways, a state-of-the-art Control Tower and air navigation facilities.

Presently, 8 million passengers and 222,000 met-

ric tonnes of cargo are transported through the country’s main airport, Hazrat Shahjalal Interna-tional Airport (HSIA) in Dhaka. This is expected to see a rise to 22-28 million passengers by the year 2035, if the projected growth rate of 8.4% is taken into consideration.

A new Terminal Building (T3), Cargo Village, Rapid Exit taxiways and Runway Extension are being un-dertaken under HSIA Expansion Project in phas-es. When completed, the third terminal will have 24 boarding bridges for wide-body aircraft.

The construction will begin in April 2018 and will

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run until 2021. The passenger handling capac-ity will increase to 20 million from the existing 8 million per year. It is expected to handle 24 mil-lion passengers annually by 2035. Studies have indicated that HSIA will be saturated by the year 2035.

The government has planned the construction of a new airport away from the capital city with multi-ple parallel runways and state-of-the-art terminal building. The site selection has been completed.

The construction is expected to be done after a Japanese government’s Overseas Development Administration (ODA) loan.

Shah Amanat International Airport is undergoing major development work. Similarly, Osmani Inter-national Airport will undergo a major change in the runway overlay and construction of a parallel taxiway.

Saidpur Airport, a domestic facility is also being transformed into a regional hub.

The Air Traffic Management (ATM) system will undergo a major change. A new Control Tower has been planned and the project would be self-fi-nanced by CAAB. New Baggage X-Ray scanners with EDS are also being introduced.

AFRICAAll of Africa’s major economies are carrying out major airport construction and expansion drive to meet ever-rising passenger numbers.

Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa will ri-val in size with the world’s largest airports when expansion is completed. Rwanda has positioned itself as Central Africa’s aviation hub, home to Af-rica’s first drone airport. Rwanda intends to be a regional air hub with the objective of doubling air traffic by 2020.

Airport construction and expansion plans were announced by governments hosting regional hubs. Algeria budgeted US$952 million, Libya US$2.1 billion and Egypt US$18.5 billion on air-port work. Nigeria budgeted US$1.07 billion in West Africa, and Rwanda US$650 million.

Angola has set aside US$2.1 billion for airport ex-pansion and Zambia committed US$500 million. Ethiopia’s showcase Bole Airport in Addis Aba-

ba, opened in the early 2000s, is already seeing a US$225 million expansion. When completed, the facility will be one of Africa’s largest airports, han-dling 120 million travellers annually.

With Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy, four additional airports are being built in key are-as. East Africa’s primary tourism destination, Ken-ya, is spending US$40 million to expand Kilimanja-ro International Airport.

Kenya’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi, another of East Africa’s regional air hubs and the region’s busiest, is seeing a major expan-sion costing US$612 million.

Uganda’s Entebbe airport is seeing a US$400 mil-lion upgrade. Tanzania has announced that its new capital city, Dodoma, requires its own air facility, and will be the country’s fifth international airport.

SOUTH ASIASouth Asia’s aviation market has been recording healthy growth, with passenger traffic expanding faster than the global average across nearly every country in the region.

Singapore’s Changi Airport is looking to increase its capacity. Construction on the new Terminal 4 building has been completed. The world’s sixth busiest airport for international traffic is now go-ing in for construction of Terminal 5.

The development includes the establishment of a three-runway system, with the entire project scheduled to be completed in latter part of 2020.

In South Korea, Incheon International Airport in

Seoul is already stretched thin handling over 60 million, -more than the combined 54-million-pas-senger capacity of its Terminal 1 and Concourse – and being expanded.

Incheon is looking to finish its new Terminal 2 building by end-2017, bringing its total capacity up to 72 million passengers. It will have among other things Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robot-ics, along with Virtual and Augmented Reality (AR) to its systems and facilities.

Vietnam is working on the construction of Long Thanh International Airport. Located about 50 kilometres from Ho Chi Minh City’s Tan Son Nhat airport, it is expected to alleviate passenger load

in the overcrowded southern hub upon its com-pletion. Projected to cost US$15.03 billion, con-struction is slated to commence by 2019.

China has plans to develop an additional 20 air-ports by 2020, at a cost of US$11.7 billion.

This includes Beijing’s third airport – US$12.9 billion-Beijing Daxing International that will be able to handle 130 million passengers a year. The airport will also have the world’s largest terminal that will cover 7.5 million square feet and handle around 125,000 passengers a day.

It is planned to have nine runways - London’s Heathrow has two, New York’s JFK airport has four, and the world’s busiest airport, Harts-field-Jackson Atlanta International, has five.

The airport will be ready to handle 45 million pas-sengers in the inaugural phase of its opening, with four active runways.

Beijing’s existing major international airport (and second-largest airport in the world) Beijing Cap-ital International has already exceeded its capaci-ty, handling 90 million passengers in 2015 – seven million more than its 83 million-passenger capaci-ty. Expected to open in 2019, the new airport will have an initial 45 million capacity.

Beijing Capital International Airport is currently the world’s second-largest airport. It handled 94 million passengers and is close to its capacity of

96 million. By 2025, China hopes to add 136 new civil airports. China has 207 civil airports, which it hopes to increase to 260 by 2020. China began a major airport construction boom back in 2008, as a way of fighting off the global financial crisis through massive infrastructure spending.

An international airport is under construction in Chengdu. The facility will be the Sichuan prov-ince capital’s second after Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, which currently has a max-imum capacity of 50 million passengers. The new US$10.5 billion airport is set to have six runways and a capacity of 90 million when it begins operat-ing in 2020.

Hong Kong International Airport’s (HKIA) three-runway system is set to come into effect around 2024. The island-city plans to transform the airport into a major destination in its own right, most notably with the announcement of a new 668,000 square metre mega integrated de-velopment called Skycity near its Terminal 2 build-ing.

Phase 1 of the development will comprise the opening of a 1,000-room hotel in 2020 and 195,000 square metre of retail, dining and enter-tainment space. Beyond the first phase, Skycity aims to offer attractions across five different ar-eas: cybertainment, gourmet, edutainment, action and excitement, and events.

NEPALTribhuvan International Airport (TIA) is the sole international airport of Nepal, but a couple of in-ternational airports are under construction. The Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) says road transport is the predominant mode of trans-port, accounting for 90% of passengers and goods movements. However, demand for air transport is increasing as services become more accessible and affordable.

Air transport plays a vital role in linking the remote hill and mountainous areas to the main population regions and is crucial to the tourism industry. Ne-pal has 48 airports, including one international airport, TIA, in Kathmandu, four regional airports, and 43 short take-off and landing strips.

TIA is forecast to see 9.3 million passengers an-nually by 2028. The TIA international terminal is nearing its passenger capacity and the domestic terminal is operating beyond its capacity. The air-side facilities (runways, taxiways, aprons) are not fully compliant with international safety stand-

ards. Most of the short take-off and landing strips in remote areas are unpaved, have no terminal fa-cilities, and lack modern communication.

Construction of Pokhara International Airport will start soon. Developed with Chinese assis-tance, it is one of the three new international air-ports planned in the country. A Chinese bank has pledged a soft loan of US$215.96 million for the construction.

The first of the three new hubs, at Siddharthana-gar (Bhairawa), will receive its first international flights in 2017/2018. The second is at Nijgadh near Hetauda. The government plans to fund construction of Nijgadh Airport – set to be the largest in South Asia – by selling the timber from the estimated 600,000 trees that will need to be cut down to clear the site. Nepal has set a target of two million tourist arrivals by 2020. By then, two more international airports (Lumbini and Pokhara) should be operational.

Prepared & ReleasedNadd Al Shiba PR & Event ManagementP.O.Box: 182173110, Hadi PlazaAl Riqqa RoadDubai, United Arab EmiratesTelephone: +9714 2566707Email: [email protected]

IssuedReed Exhibitions Middle East L.L.COrganisers of The Airport Showwww.theairportshow.com

This study has been prepared and released as a knowledge-enhancement initiative.

The information and data have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but should not be relied upon as such in making any decision. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the judgment of the various sources quoted. Every effort has been made to ensure that information is accurate and suitable. Errors and omissions are purely unintentional and regretted. Copying, reproduction and translation is permitted with written consent.

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