fm-s104b-recent us experiences and lessons learned -gerald galloway jr
TRANSCRIPT
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Flood Risk Management:
Recent US Experiences and Lessons Learned
December 4-5, 2012
Manila
Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., PE, PhDWater Policy Collaborative, University of Maryland
Philippine
Flood Management Knowledge Sharing Forum
The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or
policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent.
ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any
consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
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The Bottom Line – US Lessons Learned1. Absolute protection from floods is not possible - plan for
exceedence
2. Cannot not rely on single structural approach - implementa portfolio of measures
3. Risks must be identified and decisions made based onrelative risk –everyone will not get same protection
4. Decisions must be made with imperfect knowledge - thefuture will be different from the past
5. Responsibilities must be clear; must have clear leadershipbut all groups must share responsibilities and take localactions
6. Life-cycle infrastructure needs and costs must beaddressed at national and local level
7. Effective communication of risk is essential
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Floods Have Been Part of North American History
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And People Tried to Deal with the Flood Challenge
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The Mississippi Basin Drains 41% of the
Contiguous United States
Mississippi River Basin3.1 million km2
32% of total US farm acreage
Ohio
Missouri
Mississippi
Mississippi RiverLength - 3730 km
Average flow – 12,700,000 m3/sMax Flow -85,000 m3/s
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Levees Became the Way of Life – “Levees Only”
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And More Recent US History A Major Flood Occurred in 1927
and Gained National Attention
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The 12 Month Solution:Federal Project -Levees, Floodways, Storage,
River training, Dredging, Dikes, Dams
Mississippi River Commission in
Charge
Navigation, Flood Control,
Environmental protection
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Miss aerial (memphis)
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Jeff Roberson/AP
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L O W E R M I S S I S S
I P P I R I V E R
A T C H
A F A L A Y A R I V E R
NEWORLEANS
BATON
ROUGE
NATCHEZ
VICKSBURG
GREENVILLE
ARKANSAS
CITY
MEMPHIS
CAIRO
HELENA
NEW MADRID
ST. LOUIS
1 , 2 5 0 , 0 0 0
1 , 0 6 0 , 0 0 0
1 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 0250,000
West
AtchafalayaFloodway
MorganzaFloodway
620,000
600,000
Old
River
250,000 1 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 0
2 , 8 9 0 , 0 0 0
540,000400,000
550,000
New Madrid
Floodway
100,000
U P P E R M I S S I S S I P P I
R I V E R
1 5 0 , 0 0 0 Project Design
Flood
LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
Bonnet Carré
Spillway
Lower Atchafalaya
Floodway
30 / 70 Split
Wax LakeOutlet
MORGANCITY
Plan: 85,000 cms
2011: 70,000 cms
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Birds Point-New Madrid Area April 29, 2011
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Birds Point-
New MadridFloodway
538 square km
impacted byfloodway
10,100 square kmprotected by
floodway
I
P j D i
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L O W E R M I S S I S S
I P P I R I V E R
A T C H
A F A L A Y A R I V E R
NEWORLEANS
BATON
ROUGE
NATCHEZ
VICKSBURG
GREENVILLE
ARKANSAS
CITY
MEMPHIS
CAIRO
HELENA
NEW MADRID
ST. LOUIS
1 , 2 5 0 , 0 0 0
1 , 0 6 0 , 0 0 0
1 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 0250,000
West
AtchafalayaFloodway
MorganzaFloodway
620,000
600,000
Old
River
250,000 1 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 0
2 , 8 9 0 , 0 0 0
540,000400,000
550,000
New Madrid
Floodway
100,000
U P P E R M I S S I S S I P P I
R I V E R
1 5 0 , 0 0 0 Project Design
Flood
LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
Bonnet Carré
Spillway
Lower Atchafalaya
Floodway
30 / 70 Split
Wax LakeOutlet
MORGANCITY
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(68,000 km2)
(26,300 km2)
(40,500 km2)
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BUILDING STRONG ®
Lessons Learned
• The System performed as designed but work is needed to
repair, rebuild, complete and reinvest in the infrastructure
• The Nation avoided damages in the 2011 flood of morethan $50 billion
• The $13.9B invested in the System has prevented over $350 Billion in damages – a 34-1 return on investment
• 547,000 acres was used for floodways and backwater
storage. The issue of floodways and off-river storage ispolitically sensitive.
• Communications are critical
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Missouri River Basin1.3 million km2
Missouri River3,767 km
Max flow 21,000 m3/s
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10 Million acre
feet = 12,300
Million cubic
meters
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= 73,800 MM3
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Missouri River Basin - Annual Runoff above
Sioux City, Iowa
1881 Flood = Design Criteria
1 Maf = 1233 Mm3
1%/97.2%/97
.2%
1%
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20,000 MM3
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Lessons Learned
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BUILDING STRONG ®
Lessons Learned• The Dam System performed as designed. It serves (8) multiple
purposes and therefore cannot capably handle the most extremeof flood events
• Passing a major flood is expensive. Funds are needed to repair,rebuild, and reinvest in the infrastructure
• Must organize around a common vision and with true purpose andacceptance of shared responsibility and clear governance
• There is a lack of public understanding of how floods are handledand personal responsibilities in handling
• Flood risk can be mitigated beyond creating more space in theexisting Dam System –designating floodways, establishing floodcorridor easements - structural and non-structural
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http://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/docs/MRIndependentReviewPanel.pdf
Dam Operation Review
• Operators must follow manuals• Operators must try to meet
needs; early release may harm
future needs
• Operators must always protectstructures
• Do not see how significant
changes could be made without
longer term forecasting
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Lessons Learned - Mississippi vs Missouri
• Governance:
• On the Mississippi, one agency (MRC) has primaryresponsibility for management of the flood and was able toexercise authority
• On the Missouri, the responsibilities are divided among
many agencies
• System• Since 1927, the Lower Mississippi River has been
addressed as a single funding unit with flexibility inoperation and integrated approach
• The Missouri operates for fiscal and politcal purposes as aseries of unconnected parts.
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What is USA Doing to
Deal with Floods?
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Katrina -2005 $120B Damages
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Failed Levees
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Failed Levees
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A willingnessto live withfloods
•Individual and small
communities adaptto the naturesrhythm.
A desire toutilise thefloodplain
•Fertile land in
floodplain is drainedfor food production.
•Permanentcommunities areestablished on thefloodplain.
A need tocontrol floods
•Large scalestructural
approaches areimplementedthrough organisedgovernance.
A need toreduce flooddamages
•A recognition that
engineering alonehas limitations.
•Effort is devoted toincreasing theresilience of communities shoulda flood occur.
A need tomanage risk
•A recognition thatnot all problems are
equal.•Risk management isseen as an effectiveand efficient meansto maximise thebenefit of limitedinvestment.
From Living with Floods to Flood Control toManaging Risk
From Sayers et al , 2012
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Risk = f ( (p) Hazard * (p) Consequences))
Identify risks and make decisions based on relative risk –recognize not all will get the same protection
R d i Ri k• Absolute protection from floods
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Reducing Risk
Building Codes
Risk Communication
Evacuation Plans
Insurance
Natural Storage
Non-Structural (Floodproofing, Elevation, etc)
Structural (Levees, Dams, Floodways)
ResidualRisk
LocalState, Local
Federal, State, Local
Federal, State, Local, Individual
IndividualFederal, State, Local
Federal, State, Local
Federal, State, Local
Zoning
Initial Risk
Identify risks and make decisions based on relative risk –recognize not all will get the same protection
Modified from USACE
R i s k
is not possible – must plan for exceedence (Residual Risk)
• Cannot rely on single structural
approach - implement aportfolio of measures
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Recognise that decisions must be made with imperfectknowledge and that the future will be different from the past
49Climate Change and Development
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Life-cycle Infrastructure Requires Support
160,000 KM of LeveesOverall Condition = D-Update Cost= $50B
84,000 Dams
Overall Condition = DUpdate Cost= $50B
Th B Li US L L d
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The Bottom Line – US Lessons Learned1. Absolute protection from floods is not possible - plan for
exceedence
2. Cannot not rely on single structural approach - implementa portfolio of measures
3. Risks must be identified and decisions made based onrelative risk –everyone will not get same protection
4. Decisions must be made with imperfect knowledge - thefuture will be different from the past
5. Responsibilities must be clear; must have clear leadershipbut all groups must share responsibilities and take local
actions
6. Life-cycle infrastructure needs and costs must beaddressed at national and local level
7. Effective communication of risk is essential
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The Memory of a
Flood Is Very Short
53
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Thank YouThank You
for YourAttention