fmi’s north american construction outlook...forecast business travel, occupancy rates and revpar...

Q2 2019 Outlook Report

1

FMI’s North American Construction Outlook Second Quarter 2019 Report

Q2 2019 Construction Outlook | United States

1

FMI U.S. Construction Outlook | Second Quarter 2019 Report

Key Takeaways � Total engineering and construction spending for the U.S. is forecast to end up 1 percent in 2019,

compared to up 4 percent in 2018.

2019 Construction Segment Performance2019/2018 Comparison

Up � Office � Public Safety � Transportation � Highway and Street � Sewage and Waste Disposal � Water Supply � Conservation and Development

Stable � Commercial � Health Care � Educational � Amusement and Recreation � Communication � Manufacturing � Power

Down � Single-family � Multifamily � Improvements � Lodging � Religious

0% to 4%5% or more Under 0%

STABLEUP DOWN


STABLEUP DOWN

0% to 4%

STABLE

5% or more

UP

Under 0%

DOWN

� Spending growth in 2019 is expected to be led by public investment across both nonresidential buildings and nonresidential structures. Current top-performing segments forecast in 2019 include conservation and development (+9 percent), transportation (+8 percent), water supply (+8 percent), public safety (+7 percent), office (+6 percent), and highway and street (+6 percent). Forecast bottom-performing segments in 2019 include religious (-6 percent), single-family residential (-5 percent) and residential improvements (-4 percent).

� Only one segment, sewage and waste disposal, was upgraded into our growth category through the second half of 2019. Conversely, educational and manufacturing have both been downgraded from growth to stable. Last, both single family residential and residential improvements have now been downgraded from stable to down. All three residential segments are now expected to end this year lower than 2018 spending levels.


2

Total Construction Put in PlaceEstimated for the U.S.

Source: U.S. Census and FMI Forecast

Residential Nonresidential Buildings Nonbuilding Structures

Mill

ions

of

Curr

ent

Dolla

rs

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000Forecast

2023

F20

22 F

2021

F20

20 F

2019

F20

1820

1720

1620

1520

1420

1320

1220

1120

1020

0920

0820

0720

0620

0520

0420

0320

0220

0120

0019

9919

9819

97


3

FMI CONSTRUCTION FORECAST

Total Construction Spending Put in Place 2018 and Forecast Growth (2018-2023 CAGR) by Metropolitan Statistical Area

Source: FMI Forecast


4

Drivers: Unemployment rate, core CPI, income, mortgage rate, home prices, housing starts, housing permitsSingle-Family Residential

Forecast

��

Rising home prices, debt levels and slow wage growth have resulted in signicant affordability concerns

Homebuyers are weary of the current economic climate, with mortgage rates expected to continue aslow decline

Employment growth has slowed, but remains positive

•

•

•

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023 5%$304 Billion

3%$280 BillionSTA

1%$272 Billion

3%$290 Billion

$270 Billion2019/2018 Comparison

DWN 5%5%

$270 Billion

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE

Drivers: Unemployment rate, core CPI, income, mortgage rate, home prices, housing starts, housing permitsMultifamily Residential

Forecast��

New construction activity across several major urban markets appears to have cooled

Prices continue to rise, but remain mostly attractive and attainable relative to affordability constraints in single-family homes

Millennial buying practices and urbanization trends continue to drive long-term opportunities

•

•

•

3%$68 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023


DWN 1%1%

$66 Billion

6%$75 Billion

1%$66 Billion

4%$71 Billion

Drivers: Unemployment rate, core CPI, income, mortgage rate, home prices, housing starts, housing permits Improvements

��

Forecast

Stalled moving activity expected through 2020

Labor constraints remain paramount while material price escalation has become mixed

Rising home prices and wages continue to fuel demand, balanced, however, by higher real estate taxes

•

•

•

3%$199 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023 4%$206 BillionSTA

2%$193 BillionSTA


DWN 4%4%

$188 Billion

0%$189 Billion


5

Current NRCI Readingfor Q3 2019 51.9

Previous Reading 53.3

NRC

I Sco

re

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q1-Q42012

Q1-Q42013

Q1-Q42014

Q1-Q42015

Q1-Q42016

Q1-Q42017

Q1-Q42018

0.000.000.000.00

Q1-Q42019

Q1-Q42011

Nonresidential Construction Index (NRCI) ScoresQ1 2011 to Q3 2019

(Scores above 50 indicate expansion; scores below 50 indicate contraction)

Current NRCI Readingfor Q3 2019 51.9

Previous Reading 53.3

NRC

I Sco

re

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q1-Q42012

Q1-Q42013

Q1-Q42014

Q1-Q42015

Q1-Q42016

Q1-Q42017

Q1-Q42018

0.000.000.000.00

Q1-Q42019

Q1-Q42011

The data in the NRCI is presented as a sampling of construction industry executives voluntarily serving as panelists for this

FMI survey. Responses are based on their experience and opinions, and the analysis is based on FMI’s interpretation of the

aggregated results.

NRCI scores are based on a diffusion index where scores above 50 represent

improving or expanding industry conditions, a score of 50 represents conditions

remaining the same, and a score below 50 represents worse conditions than last

quarter (or contraction).


6

NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE

Drivers: Occupancy rate, RevPAR, average daily rate, room startsLodging

��

Forecast

Business travel, occupancy rates and RevPar expected to remain healthy through 2020

Recent capacity additions, alongside slower employment growth, will continue to stall investment growth

Transportation infrastructure projects support elevated spending in select markets

Competition from nontraditional forms of lodging (e.g., Airbnb)

•

•

•

•

2%$31 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

3%$31 Billion

DWN

1%$32 Billion


DWN 1%

4%$32 BillionSTA

1%$31 Billion

Drivers: Of�ce vacancy rate, unemployment rate

UP 6%$77 Billion2019/2018 Comparison

Office

��Forecast

Shift from major corporate campus projects to public of ce spending is driving the overall trend

Widespread labor constraints and slowed employment growth are expected to weigh on future spending

Demand for data center investment continues to expand rapidly

•

•

•

6%$77 Billion

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

1%$77 Billion

DWN

3%$75 Billion

DWN

5%$80 Billion

2%$76 BillionSTA

Drivers: Retail sales, CPI, income, home prices, housing starts, housing pricesCommercial

��Forecast

Traditional retail continues to evolve with high, albeit plateaued, vacancy rates and ongoing closures/exits

Continuing rise in e-commerce led by Amazon, eBay and others

Renovations assist in upholding annual spending levels

Demand for warehouse and distribution continues to expand with a shift to last-mile logistics

•

•

•

•

2%$92 Billion


STA 2%2020

2021

2022

2019

2023 5%$94 Billion

2%$89 Billion

DWN

2%$88 Billion

DWN

2%$90 BillionSTA


7

Drivers: Population change, population change in ages 75 and up, uninsured population, government spending, nonresidential structure investmentHealth Care

��

Forecast

Ongoing in�uence of M&A activity, senior living demand from the aging population and specialtycare platforms

“Microhospitals” (eight- to 12-bed facilities) are helping local markets meet demand for acute medical treatment, driving average segment project sizes lower

New technologies and services expected to temper long-term demand (e.g., telehealth and wearables)

•

•

•

1%$45 BillionSTA

3%$44 Billion

STA

2%$43 Billion


STA 2%2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

1%$45 BillionSTA

4%$47 BillionSTA

Drivers: Population change younger than age 18, population change ages 18-24, stock markets, government spending, nonresidential structure investmentEducational

��

Forecast

K-12 spending growth expected to outpace college/university spending

Rising tax revenues and local bond support are strengthening public funding sources

Increasing percentage of the U.S. population under 18 years old

•

•

•

3%$105 BillionSTA

3%$108 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

3%$101 Billion

STA

4%$98 Billion

STA

3%$112 BillionSTA


STA 4%

Religious

��

Forecast

Increased wages and income levels bolster industry revenue growth

Declining share of Americans donating to religious organizations

Declining attendance over time

•

•

•

6%$3 Billion

DWN

3%$3 BillionSTA

Drivers: GDP, population, income, personal savings

6%$3 Billion


DWN 6%2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

1%$3 Billion

DWN

5%$3 Billion


8

Drivers: Population, government spending, incarceration rate, nonresidential structure investment


Public Safety

��

Forecast

Rising tax revenues and local bond support

High-growth metropolitans are in need of updated facilities and infrastructure

National crime rates are trending downward

•

•

•

7%$10 Billion

0%$11 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

8%$11 Billion

3%$11 BillionSTA

3%$10 Billion

Drivers: Income, personal savings rate, unemployment rate, employment Amusement and Recreation

��

Forecast

Rising employment, business travel and transportation infrastructure support increased spending through 2019

Surge in recent investment is supported by public activity bonds

Sports and convention centers continue to drive growth through 2019, declines expected thereafter

•

•

•

2%$25 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

3%$27 Billion

STA

4%$26 Billion

DWN

7%$24 Billion

DWN

5%$26 Billion


STA 3%

Drivers: Population, government spending, transportation funding


Transportation

��

Forecast

Urbanization is in�uencing increased demand for connectivity

Addressing crowding is a means to continue attraction in large, high-growth metropolitans

The evolution of e-commerce is bolstering large-scale transportation investment nationwide

Expect strong short-term and midterm growth across the Northeast and Midwest

•

•

•

•

8%$60 Billion

6%$64 Billion

5%$67 Billion

8%$56 Billion

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023 1%$67 BillionSTA


9

Drivers: Population, security/regulation standards, private investment, innovation/technology investmentCommunication

��Forecast

Fifth-generation (5G) infrastructure and hardware are being deployed rapidly

5G infrastructure requirements are estimated to exceed $200 billion

Bandwidth needs remain high, providers are working to bring new capacity online in efforts to keep up with the public demand

•

•

•

3%$29 BillionSTA

4%$30 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

3%$25 Billion

STA

5%$28 Billion


STA 3%5%

$27 Billion

Drivers: PMI, industrial production, capacity utilization, durable goods orders, manufacturing inventoriesManufacturing

��

Forecast

International trade negotiations, new tariffs and oil price volatility continue to generate uncertainty

Increased investment tied to domestic oil and gas production, especially along the Gulf Coast

Leading indicators suggest a softening/declining trend in industrial production into 2020

•

•

•

1%$70 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

1%$69 BillionSTA

1%$68 Billion

STA

3%$67 Billion

3%$72 BillionSTA


STA 3%


10

NONBUILDING STRUCTURES CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE

Drivers: Population, industrial production, government spendingPower

��Forecast

Continued shift from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources

Various technologies are being implemented to improve processes and the overall customer experience

Faced with opposition, pipeline activity is to remain active well into 2020

Trends toward electri�cation (e.g., electric cars) are increasing infrastructure requirements

•

•

•

•

3%$104 Billion

STA


STA 3%2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

5%$109 Billion

2%$111 BillionSTA

4%$116 BillionSTA

3%$119 BillionSTA

Drivers: Population, government spending, nonresidential structure investmentHighway and Street

��

Forecast

Expanding state and local economies have led to increased funding sources

Overall growth is driven by a handful of the largest states (e.g., California’s SB1)

Upcoming 2020 federal funding rescission could pose major challenges

Fixing America's Surface Transportation (FAST) Act is set to expire in 2020

•

•

•

•

4%$113 BillionSTA

1%$114 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

6%$99 Billion

5%$109 Billion


5%$104 Billion

Drivers: Population, industrial production, government spending Sewage and Waste Disposal

��

Forecast

Passage of America’s Water Infrastructure Act in late 2018 and reauthorization of the Water Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (WIFIA) provide a substantial boost in funding

Residential needs and technology advancements will drive overall demand

•

•

4%$27 BillionSTA

2%$24 Billion

STA2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

4%$25 BillionSTA

5%$26 Billion

6%$23 BillionUP 6%



11

Drivers: Population, industrial production, government spending Water Supply

��

Forecast

Passage of America’s Water Infrastructure Act in late 2018 and reauthorization of the Water Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (WIFIA) provide a substantial boost in funding

Introduction of the Water Quality Protection and Jobs Creation Act of 2019 to support further spending

Signi�cant $2.75 billion �ood control effort in North Dakota represents the �rst P3 for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

•

•

•


8%$15 Billion

4%$17 BillionSTA

4%$18 BillionSTA

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

5%$16 Billion

5%$16 Billion

Drivers: Population, government spendingConservation and Development

��

Forecast

USACE spending is being aided from various sources, including a recent 2019 disaster relief bill, the 2019 federal spending package and the 2018 Consolidated Appropriations Bill

Further, albeit mild, EPA cuts realized in proposed 2020 budget

•

•

4%$10 BillionSTA

9%$9 BillionUP 9%


6%$10 Billion

6%$11 Billion

2020

2021

2022

2019

2023

4%$10 BillionSTA


12

Construction Put in Place Estimated for the United States Millions of Current Dollars2nd Quarter 2019 Forecast (based on Q1 2019 Actuals)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F

RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS

Single-family 194,091 221,680 242,938 270,338 284,222 270,231 271,785 280,093 289,508 304,024

Multifamily 46,250 58,228 67,084 66,354 66,267 65,700 66,366 68,333 71,399 75,477

Improvements* 134,519 148,854 163,911 194,965 195,684 188,288 188,866 192,977 198,975 206,153

Total Residential Buildings 374,860 428,762 473,933 531,657 546,173 524,219 527,018 541,403 559,882 585,654

NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS

Lodging 16,738 21,908 26,969 28,672 31,902 31,669 30,759 30,518 31,017 32,409

Office 46,582 55,521 67,616 66,850 72,915 77,318 76,662 74,523 75,885 79,781

Commercial 62,841 65,899 78,151 87,733 89,514 91,535 89,491 88,147 90,207 94,274

Health Care 38,647 39,147 40,157 41,916 42,009 42,921 44,145 44,784 45,264 46,961

Educational 79,681 84,771 90,348 91,213 94,256 98,157 101,190 104,533 107,889 111,577

Religious 3,386 3,577 3,721 3,366 3,021 2,852 2,690 2,658 2,729 2,876

Public Safety 9,437 8,484 8,023 8,290 9,243 9,905 10,682 10,687 10,354 10,621

Amusement and Recreation 16,773 20,258 23,155 24,851 26,518 27,215 26,047 24,308 24,874 26,210

Transportation 42,043 44,843 43,274 45,173 51,782 55,903 60,174 63,817 66,696 67,203

Communication 17,298 21,696 22,178 24,831 24,634 25,372 26,547 27,744 28,709 29,913

Manufacturing 58,648 79,930 76,380 66,448 65,133 67,301 67,878 68,882 69,857 71,681

Total Nonresidential Buildings 392,074 446,034 479,972 489,343 510,927 530,149 536,266 540,601 553,481 573,506

NONBUILDING STRUCTURES

Power 110,089 102,972 101,389 96,513 100,152 103,587 108,657 111,329 116,333 119,382

Highway and Street 84,743 90,626 92,738 89,053 92,642 98,567 103,861 108,665 112,784 114,286

Sewage and Waste Disposal 23,173 24,380 23,149 20,386 22,058 23,447 23,978 24,867 26,097 27,079

Water Supply 13,380 13,150 13,042 11,806 13,822 14,904 15,628 16,355 17,083 17,834

Conservation and Development 7,310 7,726 7,588 7,244 8,211 8,986 9,512 9,929 10,372 10,980

Total Nonbuilding Structures 238,695 238,854 237,906 225,002 236,885 249,492 261,636 271,146 282,669 289,561

Total Put in Place $1,005,629 $1,113,650 $1,191,811 $1,246,002 $1,293,985 $1,303,860 $1,324,920 $1,353,150 $1,396,033 $1,448,721

*Improvements includes additions, alterations and major replacements. It does not include maintenance and repairs.

Construction Put in Place Estimated for the United States Change From Prior Year - Current Dollar Basis2nd Quarter 2019 Forecast (based on Q1 2019 Actuals)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F


Single-family 13% 14% 10% 11% 5% -5% 1% 3% 3% 5%

Multifamily 32% 26% 15% -1% 0% -1% 1% 3% 4% 6%

Improvements* 10% 11% 10% 19% 0% -4% 0% 2% 3% 4%

Total Residential Buildings 14% 14% 11% 12% 3% -4% 1% 3% 3% 5%


Lodging 24% 31% 23% 6% 11% -1% -3% -1% 2% 4%

Office 23% 19% 22% -1% 9% 6% -1% -3% 2% 5%

Commercial 18% 5% 19% 12% 2% 2% -2% -2% 2% 5%

Health Care -5% 1% 3% 4% 0% 2% 3% 1% 1% 4%

Educational 1% 6% 7% 1% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Religious -6% 6% 4% -10% -10% -6% -6% -1% 3% 5%

Public Safety -1% -10% -5% 3% 11% 7% 8% 0% -3% 3%

Amusement and Recreation 10% 21% 14% 7% 7% 3% -4% -7% 2% 5%

Transportation 7% 7% -3% 4% 15% 8% 8% 6% 5% 1%

Communication -3% 25% 2% 12% -1% 3% 5% 5% 3% 4%

Manufacturing 16% 36% -4% -13% -2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3%

Total Nonresidential Buildings 9% 14% 8% 2% 4% 4% 1% 1% 2% 4%


Power 18% -6% -2% -5% 4% 3% 5% 2% 4% 3%

Highway and Street 4% 7% 2% -4% 4% 6% 5% 5% 4% 1%

Sewage and Waste Disposal 3% 5% -5% -12% 8% 6% 2% 4% 5% 4%

Water Supply -2% -2% -1% -9% 17% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4%

Conservation and Development 23% 6% -2% -5% 13% 9% 6% 4% 4% 6%

Total Nonbuilding Structures 10% 0% 0% -5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 2%

Total Put in Place 11% 11% 7% 5% 4% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4%


Q2 2019 Construction Outlook | Canada

13

FMI Canadian Construction OutlookSecond Quarter 2019 Report

2019 Construction Segment Performance 2019/2018 Comparison

Up � Multifamily � Lodging � Office

Stable � Single-family � Residential Improvements � Commercial � Religious � Public Safety � Transportation � Communication � Manufacturing � Power � Highway & Street � Conservation & Development

Down � Health care � Educational � Amusement & Recreation � Sewage & Waste Disposal � Water Supply


STABLEUP DOWN


STABLEUP DOWN

0% to 4%

STABLE

5% or more

UP

Under 0%

DOWN


14

Total Construction Put in PlaceEstimated for Canada

Residential Nonresidential Buildings Nonbuilding Structures

$0

$30,000

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

$150,000Forecast

2023

F

2022

F

2021

F

2020

F

2019

F

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

Mill

ions

of

Curr

ent

Canadia

n D

olla

rs


15

Total Construction Put in PlaceEstimated for Canada

Single Family

MultifamilyResidential Improvements

Lodging

Office

Commercial

Health Care

Educational

Religious

Public Safety

Amusement and Recreation

Transportation

Communication

Manufacturing

Power

Highway and Street

Sewage and Waste Disposal

Water Supply

Conservation and DevelopmentOther Nonbuilding

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

2018 Construction Spending Put in Place (C$ Millions)

20

18

-20

23

Fore

cast

Com

pound

Annual G

row

th R

ate


16

Construction Put in Place Estimated for CanadaMillions of Current Canadian Dollars2nd Quarter 2019 Forecast (based on Q1 2019 Actuals)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F


Single-family 26,398 25,945 27,599 30,377 30,984 29,813 31,049 31,256 31,370 32,019

Multifamily 21,802 24,235 26,146 28,195 29,041 29,508 28,511 30,838 32,136 33,768

Improvements* 51,770 53,373 55,163 58,946 60,714 63,515 65,795 67,993 70,251 72,344

Total Residential Buildings 99,970 103,552 108,908 117,517 120,739 122,836 125,354 130,087 133,756 138,131


Lodging 2,487 3,113 3,177 2,998 3,088 3,118 3,235 3,550 3,711 3,886

Office 9,214 10,092 9,050 8,817 9,169 9,280 10,750 10,553 10,785 11,702

Commercial 17,913 18,904 18,505 18,456 19,564 19,944 20,625 21,924 22,827 23,525

Health Care 3,694 3,124 2,557 3,492 3,544 3,354 3,361 3,289 3,113 2,892

Educational 6,460 7,585 8,373 8,641 9,505 8,055 8,068 8,113 8,131 8,073

Religious 327 324 320 323 340 345 355 375 388 400

Public Safety 699 964 975 793 809 897 982 1,013 1,051 1,084

Amusement and Recreation 3,350 3,772 4,257 4,520 4,701 3,985 4,255 4,251 4,278 4,249

Transportation 19,444 20,445 20,698 20,477 21,705 22,042 22,803 24,159 25,161 25,685

Communication 3,264 3,548 2,747 3,373 3,845 3,413 3,432 3,489 3,691 3,827

Manufacturing 8,875 9,015 8,583 8,985 9,345 9,821 9,890 10,290 10,826 11,214

Total Nonresidential Buildings 75,728 80,885 79,242 80,875 85,614 84,255 87,755 91,008 93,964 96,536


Power 26,731 26,402 28,245 25,385 24,878 28,690 30,509 32,262 34,012 35,316

Highway and Street 8,080 8,207 9,493 10,179 11,146 11,460 11,268 11,522 11,723 11,846

Sewage and Waste Disposal 2,857 2,503 2,600 2,787 2,955 3,554 3,563 3,539 3,596 3,584

Water Supply 5,890 2,882 3,026 3,154 3,438 5,502 5,631 5,714 5,474 5,334

Conservation and Development 176 651 707 305 338 381 405 413 426 443

Other Nonbuilding Structures 8,080 8,207 9,493 10,179 11,095 12,518 12,808 13,221 13,562 13,807

Total Nonbuilding Structures 51,815 48,851 53,563 51,989 53,849 62,105 64,183 66,671 68,792 70,330

Total Put in Place $227,513 $233,288 $241,713 $250,380 $260,202 $269,196 $277,292 $287,766 $296,512 $304,996


Construction Put in Place Estimated for CanadaMillions of Current Canadian Dollars2nd Quarter 2019 Forecast (based on Q1 2019 Actuals)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F


Single-family 2% -2% 6% 10% 2% -4% 4% 1% 0% 2%

Multifamily 1% 11% 8% 8% 3% 2% -3% 8% 4% 5%

Improvements* 7% 3% 3% 7% 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3%

Total Residential Buildings 4% 4% 5% 8% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3%


Lodging 11% 25% 2% -6% 3% 1% 4% 10% 5% 5%

Office 2% 10% -10% -3% 4% 1% 16% -2% 2% 8%

Commercial 7% 6% -2% 0% 6% 2% 3% 6% 4% 3%

Health Care -12% -15% -18% 37% 1% -5% 0% -2% -5% -7%

Educational 5% 17% 10% 3% 10% -15% 0% 1% 0% -1%

Religious 11% -1% -1% 1% 5% 2% 3% 6% 4% 3%

Public Safety -13% 38% 1% -19% 2% 11% 9% 3% 4% 3%

Amusement and Recreation -17% 13% 13% 6% 4% -15% 7% 0% 1% -1%

Transportation 3% 5% 1% -1% 6% 2% 3% 6% 4% 2%

Communication 95% 9% -23% 23% 14% -11% 1% 2% 6% 4%

Manufacturing 0% 2% -5% 5% 4% 5% 1% 4% 5% 4%

Total Nonresidential Buildings 4% 7% -2% 2% 6% -2% 4% 4% 3% 3%


Power 10% -1% 7% -10% -2% 15% 6% 6% 5% 4%

Highway and Street -3% 2% 16% 7% 10% 3% -2% 2% 2% 1%

Sewage and Waste Disposal -3% -12% 4% 7% 6% 20% 0% -1% 2% 0%

Water Supply -8% -51% 5% 4% 9% 60% 2% 1% -4% -3%

Conservation and Development -4% 270% 8% -57% 11% 13% 6% 2% 3% 4%

Other Nonbuilding Structures -3% 2% 16% 7% 9% 13% 2% 3% 3% 2%

Total Nonbuilding Structures 3% -6% 10% -3% 4% 15% 3% 4% 3% 2%

Total Put in Place 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%


Jay Bowman is a principal with FMI. Jay assists a broad range of stakeholders in the

construction industry, from program managers and general contractors to specialty trades

and materials producers, with the identification and assessment of the risks influencing the

strategic and tactical decisions they face. In this role, Jay’s primary responsibilities include

research design and interpretation, based on developing an understanding of the context

within which these organizations operate. Jay can be reached at [email protected].

About the Authors

Brian Strawberry is a senior economist with FMI. Brian’s expertise is in economic and

statistical modeling. He leads FMI’s efforts in market sizing, forecasting, and building

product/construction material pricing and consumption trends. The combination of

Brian’s analytical skills and creative problem-solving abilities has proven valuable for many

contractors, owners and private equity groups as well as industry associations and internal

research initiatives. Brian can be reached at [email protected].

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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