focus model overview class two
DESCRIPTION
Focus Model Overview CLASS TWO. Denver Regional Council of Governments June 30, 2011. Notes. http://www.drcog.org/index.cfm?page=FocusTechnicalResources Next week’s class is in Independence Pass from 2-3 PM; New Go To Webinar next week - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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FOCUS MODEL OVERVIEWCLASS TWODenver Regional Council of GovernmentsJune 30, 2011
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Notes http://www.drcog.org/index.cfm?page=Foc
usTechnicalResources Next week’s class is in Independence Pass
from 2-3 PM; New Go To Webinar next week On-going classes through August 4;
Thursdays 2-3 PM in Monarch Tentative Schedule: Model Steps July 7
How to Run the Model July 14 Theoretical Underpinning July 21SQL Database July 28????? August 4
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Review of General Concepts 1. Logit Models are models that make assign probabilities to
a set of choices for an individual from a list of discrete choices.
2. The actual choice is made using a monte carlo process. 3. Travel in the model is made on a tour-level, and then a
trip level. 4. We can divide the model into four stages. 5. We use four types of code in the model: T-SQL, C#,
GISDK, and Java. 6. Much of the input and output data is stored in SQL Server. 7. We still have to run parts of our old GISDK code for path
building, skimming and assignment. 8. We are doing this because we can get much finer detail
and answer planning questions better using the model.
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Focus Model Flow: 28 StepsOutside The Speed Feedback Loop: Run Once-STAGE 1GISDK called from C#:GISDK PreprocessJava:3. Population SynthesizerC#4. PopSyn Output Processor5. Size Sum Variable Calculator
STAGE 2 GISDK called from C#:For DIA, I-E, E-E and Commercial Trips1. DRCOG Multi-Period Highway Preprocess 2. DRCOG Multi-Period Transit Preprocess3. DRCOG Transit Preprocess4. Trip Generation5. Highway and Transit Skimming6. Trip Distribution7. Mode Choice
STAGE 3 C# Regular Trips8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day Simulation12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD17. Tour Primary Destination Choice18. Tour Priority Assignment
STAGE 4 GISDK called from C#:28. Highway and Transit Assignment
FEEDBACK
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Focus Model Flow: Stage 1STAGE 1:
Make Population
And Network
STAGE 2:Run GISDK to Mode Choice
STAGE 3: C#
Logit Models to
Create Trips
STAGE 4: GISDK
Assignment
FEEDBACK
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STAGE 1: Make Population and Network
Java: Population Synthesizer C# to process in database: Size
Sum Variable Calculator; PopSyn Output Processor
GISDK called from C#: GISDK Preprocess
Creating networks for example
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Population Synthesizer
ACS or PUMS Disaggregate Data
Aggregate Data that We Need to Match:Economic Forecasts, Land Use Forecasts
Disaggregate Population With the Right Portions Matching the Economic and Land Use Forecasts
Questions?
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Example Family:Mother, Age 33Part Time Service WorkerFather, Age 34Full Time Education WorkerSon, Age 4Pre-School StudentFamily Income : $61,000
People come out as disaggregate unique entities with many characteristics.
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Data Gets Processed into a Database Structure
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Database Structure Created and FilledPeople
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Database Structure Created and FilledPlaces
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What are:Tours, Half Tours, Half Tour Stops, Trips
STORE
HOME WORK
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Database Structure Created and NOT Filled YET
Travel
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Household Monte Carlo PopSyn assigns the zone they live in.
Then the model randomly assign the households to a point within the zone.
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Give Each Household a Housing Unit to Live in. A disaggregate X-Y point
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GISDK:Preprocess
Socio-economic Inputs
Area Type
Parking Cost
Network Processing & Data Preparation
Highway
Skimming
Transit
Skimming
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
Highway
Assignment
Transit Assignment
Highway Network Inputs
Transit NetworkInputs
Time-of-Day
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Stage One is done. Everything outside feedback loop is done.
Now we have : 1. A synthesized population 2. A database filled with point locations
and people, model variables 3. A set of highway and transit networks
ready for use.
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Focus Model Flow: Stage 2STAGE 1:
Make Population
And Network
STAGE 2:Run GISDK to Mode Choice
STAGE 3: C#
Logit Models to
Create Trips
STAGE 4: GISDK
Assignment
FEEDBACK
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GISDK:For Skimmingand External/Commercial Trips
Socio-economic Inputs
Area Type
Parking Cost
Network Processing & Data Preparation
Highway
Skimming
Transit
Skimming
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Mode Choice
Highway
Assignment
Transit Assignment
Highway Network Inputs
Transit NetworkInputs
Time-of-Day
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Stage 2:GISDK Through Mode Choice
All C#, trip-making components use travel time and distance skims for highway and transit
Internal-External, External-External, trips destined to DIA and Commercial Trips created from Compass GISDK
Later these trips get combined with the regular Internal-Internal Trips from C# into matrices by time-of-day by mode
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Skim matrices(distance)
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Time Periods for Skims TIMES OF DAY Highway Times of Day Transit Times of Day AM1: 6:30 – 7:00 AM; AM: 6:30- 9:00 AM AM2: 7:00 – 8:00 AM; AM3: 8:00 – 9:00 AM; OP2: 9:00 – 11:30 AM; MD: 9:00 AM- 3:00 PM PM OP3: 11:30 AM – 3:00 PM; PM1: 3:00 – 5:00 PM; PM: 3:00 PM -7:00 PM PM2: 5:00 – 6:00 PM; PM3: 6:00 – 7:00 PM; OP4: 7:00 – 11:00 PM. EL: 7:00 PM – 6:00 AM OP1: 11:00 PM – 6:30 AM;
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Trip Tables (this is commercial)
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GISDK Through Mode Choice So we run trip generation, trip
distribution, and mode choice for the funky trips
This is run from C# calling GISDK. The C# pops open a TransCAD window
and calls the macros that have been specified to run.
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Stage 2 is done. Now we have a LOT of matrices: All highway and transit skims A set of commercial and external trips O-
Ds A set of DIA trips O-Ds and modes And all stage one outputs: population,
networks, a ready database.
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Focus Model Flow: Stage 3
STAGE 1: PREPROCES
S
STAGE 2 :GISDK Through
Mode Choice
STAGE 3: C#
Logit Models to
Create Trips
STAGE 4: GISDK
Assignment
FEEDBACK
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Talking time: Let’s talk about ourselves
What are the set of choices that make you travel like you do? What is the highest priority? What is unique about you that guides your
choices? What are the smaller choices you make
each day? What strange behaviors to you have that
would be really hard to model?
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The steps in Stage 3. Mostly Logit Models. The heart of the model.
8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice 10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation 11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day
Simulation 12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier 13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location 14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice 15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice 16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD 17. Tour Primary Destination Choice 18. Tour Priority Assignment
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Long Term Choices
8. Regular Work Location Choice
9. Regular School Location Choice
10. Auto Availability11. Aggregate Logsum Generation
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Long Term Choices: Regular Workplace Location Where will I work? Final Choice: Two nests- Work at Home, Work
Outside HomeZone and X,Y Location of WorkType of Model: Nested Logit
Inputs: (What do you think predicts?)Number of Jobs by type in in a zoneDistance from Home to WorkFull Time Worker or Part Time WorkerJob SectorAccessibility of Work Location from Home
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Here’s how the choice looks, sent back to the database Persons table:
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Long term choice 2:Regular School Location
Final Choice:Zone and X,Y Location of SchoolType of Model: Multinomial LogitInputs: (What do you think predicts?)
Grade Level in SchoolDistance to School from HomeIncome GroupOlder Sibling’s School