focused energy report volume xxxxx · an analysis of its energy mix, swot analysis, resources, oil...
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Focused Energy Report –
Volume XXXXX
Monthly Report – November 2016
Energy Desk
GAIL (India) Ltd.
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Table of Contents
I. Energy Prices 3
II. Under-Recoveries on Petroleum Products 3
III. Country Analysis – South Korea 4
A. Energy Mix ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
B. SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 4
C. Resources ........................................................................................................................................................ 5
D. Oil and Gas Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................... 5
E. Natural gas ...................................................................................................................................................... 5
F. Key Players - South Korean Oil & Gas Sector .................................................................................... 6
G. Competitive Landscape .............................................................................................................................. 7
IV. Company Analysis – Essar Oil 8
A. Business Segments ....................................................................................................................................... 8
B. Milestones ....................................................................................................................................................... 9
C. Acquisition of Essar Oil ............................................................................................................................... 9
D. Key Indicators .............................................................................................................................................. 10
V. World Energy Scenarios 2060 11
A. Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................. 11
B. Factors Shaping World Energy .............................................................................................................. 11
C. India’s Energy Outlook - Coal ................................................................................................................ 12
D. Outlook Gas -India ..................................................................................................................................... 12
E. Outlook Oil - India ..................................................................................................................................... 13
F. Comparison of China, India & World .................................................................................................. 13
VI. Underground Storage Of Natural Gas (UGS) 15
A. Europe ............................................................................................................................................................ 15
B. United States & Canada ........................................................................................................................... 16
C. Asia Pacific .................................................................................................................................................... 18
D. Iran & Azerbaijan ........................................................................................................................................ 19
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Executive Summary
The Focused Energy Report for the month of November 2016 reviews the Energy Prices taking in
consideration the comparison with last month. There’s decrease of around 2.9 % in the WTI oil prices, the
prices of natural gas Henry Hub have increased by 4.1 % and crude oil prices of Brent decreased by around
1.5%.
The next discussion in the report is about “South Korea”. It is the world's 2nd
largest liquefied natural gas
importer. It is one of the top energy importers in the world and relies on fuel imports for about 97% of its
primary energy consumption because the country lacks domestic energy reserves. Its national strategy is
largely geared towards energy conservation, achieving efficiency gains and diversifying import sources. It has
very small, state-controlled upstream sector, managed by KNOC.
An analysis of its Energy Mix, SWOT Analysis, Resources, Oil and Gas Infrastructure, Natural gas, Key Players -
South Korean Oil & Gas Sector and Competitive Landscape is covered.
In the next section company “Essar Oil” is analysed. It was incorporated in 1989 with the objective of
engaging in exploration, production, refining and marketing and related services in the oil and gas
sector. Its Vadinar Refinery of 20 MTPA is 2nd
largest single location refinery in India. It has countrywide
network of over 1,750 operational retail outlets with about 1,900 outlets in various stages of construction.
Rosneft and investment consortium led by Trafigura sign agreements to acquire 98% in Essar Oil -
Transaction includes ~Rs 72,800 crore ($10.9 bn) for Essar Oil’s refining and retail assets, and ~Rs 13,300
crore ($2 bn) for Vadinar port and related infrastructure making it India’s largest inbound FDI.
The analysis covers its Business Segments, Milestones, Acquisition of Essar Oil and Key Indicators.
In this section there is a discussion about “World Energy Scenarios 2060” of World Energy Council which has
collaborated with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute. It presents three exploratory scenarios—
Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock. The world’s primary energy demand growth will
slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by
new technologies and more stringent energy policies. In India, coal in primary energy peaks at 989 MT in
2040, coal settles at 660 MT in 2060. Beyond 2030, China and India account for more than 50% of growth
in gas consumption, with their combined primary gas demand totalling over 1,221 BCM in 2060. Natural gas
demand of India stands at 1262 mmscmd by 2060 and in 2030 of 346 mmscmd.
The analysis covers Key Findings, Factors Shaping World Energy, India’s Energy Outlook – Coal, Outlook Gas –
India, Outlook Oil – India and Comparison of China, India & Word.
In the last section an analysis on “Underground Storage Of Natural Gas “is covered. Gas storage is
principally used to meet load variations. Gas is injected into storage during periods of low demand and
withdrawn from storage during periods of peak demand. Natural gas storage is also used by industry
participants for commercial reasons; storing gas when prices are low, and withdrawing and selling it when
prices are high. In the U.S., large storages are provided by the private sector, also in order to keep
production flows constant. Japan is almost totally dependent on LNG imports. It has substantial LNG
storage, but its gas markets are fragmented.
The analysis covers underground gas storage market assessment of Europe, United States & Canada, Natural
Gas Working Storage Levels, Asia Pacific, Korea, China, Australia & New Zealand and Iran & Azerbaijan.
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ENERGY PRICES I.
Price on 2nd
October 2016 Price on 1st Nov. 2016 Change % Change
Brent crude oil 49.06 48.3 -0.76 -1.5%
WTI crude oil 48.24 46.86 -1.38 -2.9%
Henry Hub Natural Gas 2.91 3.03 0.12 4.1%
WTI Crude Oil ($/barrel) BRENT Crude Oil ($/barrel) Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
Particulars Aug. 2016 (Final) Sep. 2016 (Estimated)
JCC Crude Oil ($/b) 45.4 45.49
Average International FOB Price & Exchange rate:
UNDER-RECOVERIES ON PETROLEUM PRODUCTS II.
(A) Product-wise Under-recovery of Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies(OMCs):
* Under (Over) Recovery is for Mumbai market, ** Cash Subsidy is for Delhi market
(B) The details of the under recovery/DBTL Subsidy during 2014-15 & 2015-16:
Particulars Unit 28-Oct.-16
Next Pricing Fortnight
for
1st Nov. 2016
Crude Oil(Indian Basket)
- In US Dollar
- In Indian Rupees
($/bbl)
(Rs/bbl)
48.50
3242.61
49.53
3309.10
Exchange Rate (Rs/$) 66.86 66.81
Product Unit Under/Over-recovery
(eff. 16th
Oct. 16)
Cash Transfer under
DBTL (eff. 1st Oct. 16)
PDS Kerosene* (Rs/litre) 10.25
Cash Compensation on Domestic LPG by
Govt. to consumers** (Rs./Cylinder)
28.23
Cash Compensation on Domestic LPG by
OMCs towards
'Uncompensated Costs' to consumers**
(Rs/Cylinder) 34.68
Product 2015-16
(Rs./Crore)
2014-15
(Rs./Crore)
Diesel 0 10,935
PDS Kerosene 11,496 24,799
Domestic LPG 18 36,580
DBTL Subsidy (Direct Benefit transfer for LPG) 16,056 3,971
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Oil 41%
Natural Gas 14%
Coal 31%
Nuclear Energy
13%
Hydro electric
0%
Renewables 1%
Energy Mix 2015: South Korea
COUNTRY ANALYSIS – SOUTH KOREA III.
South Korea, officially the Republic of Korea, is a sovereign state in East
Asia, constituting the southern part of the Korean Peninsula. South
Korea was the world’s ninth-largest energy consumer in 2015,
according to estimates from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy
2016. South Korea’s highly developed economy drives its energy
consumption and economic growth is fuelled by exports, most notably
exports of electronics and semiconductors.
Korea is one of the top energy importers in the world and relies on fuel
imports for about 97% of its primary energy consumption because the
country lacks domestic energy reserves. South Korea ranks among the
world’s top five importers of liquefied natural gas, coal, crude oil, and
refined products.
A. Energy Mix
Oil comprises of 41 % in its energy mix with coal next with
31%.Share of natural gas and nuclear is 14 % and 13%
respectively. Following Japan’s Fukushima disaster and South
Korea’s problems with false safety certifications of nuclear parts
in late 2012, the government scaled back its long-term reliance
on nuclear power in the energy and electricity portfolios from its
first plan in 2008 to the most recent plan unveiled in early
2014.South Korea is attempting to balance its fuel portfolio to
meet higher energy consumption, to moderate its nuclear
power generation, and to offset some fossil fuel imports. As part
of this effort, the government is also promoting greater
demand-side management, energy efficiency tactics, and use of
renewable energy.
B. SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Large and technologically sophisticated refining
sector, supporting significant refined fuels exports
to buyers around the world.
Stable short-term and long-term political
environment and economic growth outlook,
which offers a largely risk-free operating
environment to investors.
Geographical proximity to major consumer
markets in the Asia-Pacific region puts the
country in a favourable position to capitalise on
their growing energy needs.
Opportunities
The country's offshore acreages are open to
foreign investment.
The East Sea could be prospective for methane
hydrates.
The petrochemical sector is likely to continue its
high demand for oil and/or gas feedstock.
The government is mulling liberalising the
domestic retail electricity market and the
LNG trading sector, traditionally dominated by
KEPCO and KOGAS, respectively, to greater private
sector participation.
Weaknesses
The country's small proven reserves and
negligible oil and gas output renders it to remain
heavily dependent on crude oil and LNG imports.
Korea National Oil Corporation retains a
monopolistic presence in the South Korean
Threats
Subdued below-ground potential dissuades private
and international investment in upstream activities,
limiting opportunities for reserves and output
growth.
Rising prominence of alternative energy sources
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upstream segment, as international interest in the
country's upstream potential remains limited.
such as nuclear energy, coal and renewables, could
erode the share of gas in South Korea's power mix.
In light of its heavily contracted LNG volumes in
the coming years, this increases the risk of an
oversupply in the domestic market.
Source: BMI
C. Resources
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 20.0 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.5 18.5 18.1
Refined products production, 000b/d 2,821.1 3,068.6 2,945.9 2,916.4 2,901.8 2,887.3 2,872.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,347.8 2,613.6 2,622.2 2,630.8 2,639.5 2,648.1 2,675.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 49.7 42.7 42.3 41.9 41.4 41.0 40.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: KNOC, KOGAS, Bloomberg, EIA, BMI
D. Oil and Gas Infrastructure
1. Oil Refineries
There are six major refineries in South Korea and
two smaller refineries, giving the country an
estimated total capacity of 3.0mn barrels per day
(b/d) in 2015. SK Energy is the largest player in the
sector, with more than 1mn b/d in total of refining
capacity, followed by the likes of GS-Caltex, S-Oil
and Hyundai Oilbank.
2. Oil Storage
South Korea has nine oil storage facilities in operation with total
capacity of 146mn bbl of crude oil and oil products, of which
about 85mn bbl (equivalent to about 58.2%) remain filled, based
on figures provided by Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC).
E. Natural gas
South Korea is the second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas
in the world behind Japan. South Korea relies on imports to satisfy
nearly all of its natural gas demand, which has nearly doubled over
the past decade. South Korea does not have any international
natural gas pipeline connections and must therefore import all gas
via LNG tankers. As a result, although South Korea is not among
the group of top natural gas-consuming nations, it is the second-
largest importer of LNG in the world after Japan.
Refinery Capacity (b/d)
Owner Completed
Busan 9,500 Hyundai Corporation
1965
Seosan, Daesan
3,90,000 Hyundai Oilbank
1964
Daesan 13,052 Hyundai Oilbank
2014
Incheon 2,75,000 SK Energy 1972
Onsan, Ulsan
6,69,000 S-Oil 1980
Ulsan 8,40,000 SK Energy 1964
Yeosu 7,86,000 GS Caltex 1969
Seosan, Daesan
1,10,000 Hyundai Oilbank
2016
Total 30,98,500 - -
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1. LNG Terminals
Terminal Status Capacity (mntpa) Completion Ownership
Pyongtaek LNG Operational 20.0 1986 KOGAS
Tongyeong LNG Operational 10.5 2002 KOGAS
Incheon LNG Operational 26.0 1996 KOGAS
Samcheok Terminal Operational 6.5 2016 KOGAS
Gwangyang LNG Operational 1.7 2005 POSCO
Boryeong LNG Under Construction 3.0 2016 GS Caltex
Gwangyang Expansion Proposed 1.3 2015 POSCO
Jeju LNG proposed - 2017 KOGAS
Tongyeong Expansion Proposed 8.0 2015 KOGAS
Total Capacity (Active) 64.7 - -
Total Capacity By 2017 77.0 - -
In 2015, South Korea imported 43.7 bcm of LNG, which was 13% of the global LNG trade, according to BP
Statistical Review of World Energy 2016. South Korea currently has five LNG regasification facilities, with a total
capacity of 64.7 mmtpa and a 38% utilization rate. KOGAS operates four of these facilities (Pyongtaek, Incheon,
Tong-Yeong, and Samcheok), accounting for about 98% of current capacity. The Samcheok terminal, located on
the northwest coast, is KOGAS’s smallest terminal and was added in 2016. Pohang Iron and Steel Corporation
(POSCO) and Mitsubishi Japan jointly own the only private regasification facility in Korea, located on the southern
coast in Gwangyang. KOGAS is constructing a second privately owned regasification facility at Boryeong in the
Northeast. The terminal’s capacity is 3 mmtpa, and the facility is scheduled to begin operations in 2016.
2. Pipeline
Location (Region) Pipeline Length (km)
Chungcheong 464
Gangwon 587
Gyeongbuk (Daegu) 672
Gyeonggi 517
Gyeongnam (Busan) 525
Incheon 270
Jeonbuk 398
Jeonnam (Gwangju) 451
Seoul 356
Total 4,240
F. Key Players - South Korean Oil & Gas Sector
Company 2015 Revenues
(USDbn) 2015 Total Assets
(USDbn) Year
established Main Ownership
SK Innovation 42.7 26.6 1962 SK Holdings
GS Caltex 25.1 16.1 1967 -
S-Oil 15.8 9.2 1976 Saudi Aramco
Hyundai Oil Bank 11.5 6.4 1964 -
KNOC 4.1 24.6 1979 100% state
KOGAS 23 36 1983 Ministry of Strategy &
Finance POSCO Daewoo
Corp 15.4 6.8 2000 POSCO
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G. Competitive Landscape
South Korea's national strategy is largely geared towards energy conservation, achieving efficiency gains and
diversifying import sources. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) is the main government branch
responsible for issues pertaining to the domestic oil and gas industry, in which the state retains a sizable
influence via national companies, Korea National Oil Company (KNOC) and Korea Gas (KOGAS).
South Korea has a very small, state-controlled upstream sector, managed by KNOC. Partly privatised KOGAS
manages the country's natural gas industry. Both companies have been expanding their overseas portfolios with
a view to securing the country's energy supply. Both are now under pressure to slow the rate of international
expansion and focus on near-term financial strength.
In April 2016, the government scrapped plans for an IPO for KNOC, along with five power service providers,
citing security concerns and poor market conditions amid continued oil price weakness.Following a strong 2015
in which it recorded operating profit of USD1.7bn, SK Innovation outlined its intention to boost M&A activities
in 2016, focusing on opportunities in the petrochemicals and EV battery sectors.
SK Innovation is participating in 29 oil/gas blocks and five liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in 16 countries. It
has proved reserves of more than 500mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe). The SK refining arm reported its first
annual operating loss in 2014 as a result of tumbling oil prices and negative inventory revaluation. SK Innovation
reported a profit in the third quarter of 2015 on continued improvement in its lubricant oil business and reduced
inventory losses.
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COMPANY ANALYSIS – ESSAR OIL IV.
Essar Oil Limited (EOL, "the Company") was incorporated in 1989 with the objective of engaging in exploration,
production, refining and marketing and related services in the oil and gas sector. EOL is a subsidiary of Essar
Energy Plc (LSE listed), an Essar group company which holds all of its Indian oil and gas assets under EOL and
power assets under Essar Power Limited. Essar Oil Limited is a privately held company after a complete delisting
from the bourses in 2015. Only 2% of the equity remains with public shareholders who had not participated in
the delisting.
A. Business Segments
The Company earns revenue from three different business segments viz. Refinery, Marketing and Exploration and
Production as outlined in subsequent section. Essar Oil has a retail presence in 28 states & UTs; its products
marketed through 58 supply locations .It manufactures petrol, diesel, LDO, Sulphur, FO, Bitumen and PetCoke.
1. Vadinar Refinery
Particulars Details
Capacity 20 MTPA (2nd largest single location refinery in India) 405,000 bpd
Complexity 11.8 Location Vadinar, Gujarat, a natural all-weather, deep-draft port that can accommodate very large
crude carriers (VLCCs). The Vadinar port area receives almost 70 per cent of India's crude oil imports.
Location on the west coast of India provides efficient access to indigenous crudes and Persian Gulf-based crudes plus high-growth refined product export markets.
Capex USD 5.31 billion Capex per bbl.: USD 13,152 Operating Cost USD 2.8 per bbl. Raw Materials Capability to process ~85% of heavy/ ultra-heavy crudes & produce Euro IV/V grades of
products Product Slate LPG, Naphtha, Light Diesel Oil, ATF, Kerosene, Gasoline, Gasoil, VGO.
85% production comprises of high margin light and middle distillates. GRMs USD 8.37/bbl. (For FY15)
2. Marketing
Essar Oil serves retail customers through a modern, countrywide network of over 1,750 operational retail outlets
with about 1,900 outlets in various stages of construction. It was the first private Indian company to enter petro
retailing, looking beyond urban markets and reaching out to consumers in India's heartland.
Tie-ups with other oil marketing companies gives EOL access to the products and the right to use their terminals
and facilities for placing and marketing our products. Company has pan-India presence with more than 30 supply
locations.
The company offers a wide range of products to bulk customers in the industrial and transport sectors. EOL has
product offtake and infrastructure sharing agreements with all the oil PSUs, namely Bharat Petroleum
Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL). It has
received approvals to supply Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) to the Indian Armed Forces.
3. Exploration & Production
Essar Oil’s exploration and production business has ~1.75 billion barrels of oil equivalent of reserves, resources.
Of this, approximately 175 million barrels are 2P and 2C resources, ~830 million barrels are prospective resources
and ~750 million barrels are unrisked, in-place resources. EOL has acreage of over 2,700 sq km in India, which
gives it one of the largest CBM acreage in the country.
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The E&P division overall has a diverse portfolio of 15 blocks and fields for the exploration and production of oil
and gas in India and overseas. It has net 2P (proven and probable reserves) and 2C (contingent resources) of 209
mmboe, best estimate prospective resources of 929 mmboe and an un-risked in-place resource base of 971
mmboe across the globe.
EOL-E&P is now focusing towards CBM where it is one of the leading player in India with 2,733 km2 of acreage
and ~10 TCF of reserves and resources across five CBM blocks.
100% interest in Raniganj (West Bengal), Rajmahal (Jharkhand), Talchir (Orissa), IB Valley (Orissa), and
Sohagpur - NE (MP) CBM Blocks
100% interest in Mehsana Oil Block, Cambay, India (Except ESU field where it has 70% interest)
50% interest in Ratna and R-Series, Offshore Mumbai, India
100% interest in two Assam Blocks
Essar Oil is India’s largest producer of CBM gas.
B. Milestones
2002 Essar Oil Limited is awarded its first CBM block, the RG (East)–CBM–2001/1 block in the
Raniganj region of India.
2003 Essar Oil Limited commences building its network of franchised retail petrol stations.
2005 Construction of the Vadinar refinery recommences.
2006
The Vadinar refinery commences operations on a trial basis.
Essar Oil Limited implements plans to debottleneck Vadinar refinery to expand its annual
capacity from 10.5 mmtpa to 16 mmtpa.
2008 The Vadinar refinery commences commercial operations.
2009 Essar Oil Limited is provisionally awarded exploration and production rights in the Rajmahal
CBM block RM (E)-CB-2008/IV.
2010 Essar Oil declared winner of four CBM blocks as per announcement by CCEA namely RM(E)-
CBM-2008/IV, SP(NE)-CBM-2008/IV, TL-CBM-2008/IV and IB-CBM-2008/IV.
2011 Essar Oil completes 35-day planned project as part of its expansion and optimization
project
2012
Essar Oil Completes Expansion and Optimisation Projects; Capacity Increased To 20MMTPA
Commissioned 510 MW coal fired captive power plant, the first refinery in Asia to do. This
boosts margins by ~$1/bbl.
2013 EOL exits CDR loan facility in March 2013.
Improvement in credit rating by two notches from BBB- to BBB+
2016 Rosneft and investment consortium led by Trafigura sign agreements to acquire 98% in
Essar Oil
C. Acquisition of Essar Oil
Rosneft and investment consortium led by Trafigura sign agreements to acquire 98% in Essar Oil.
Transaction includes ~Rs 72,800 crore ($10.9 bn) for Essar Oil’s refining and retail assets, and ~Rs 13,300
crore ($2 bn) for Vadinar port and related infrastructure
This makes it India’s largest inbound FDI
Essar Oil was set up using an equity capital of about Rs 9,000 crore in the 1990s. The transaction values the
Company at over 8 times that cost.
1. The Deal
The first sale and purchase agreement envisages the sale of 49% to Petrol Complex Pte. Ltd (a subsidiary of PJSC
Rosneft Oil Company); the second envisages the sale of the remaining 49% to Kesani Enterprises Company
Limited (owned by a consortium led by Trafigura) at an enterprise valuation of Rs 72,800 crore ($10.9 bn) (the
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“Transaction”). An additional Rs 13,300 crore ($2 billion) will be paid for the acquisition of Vadinar Port, which has
world-class storage and import/export facilities.
The all-cash deal encompasses EOL’s 20 million tonne refinery in Gujarat, India, and its pan India retail outlets.
The closing of the Transaction is conditional upon receiving requisite regulatory approvals and other customary
conditions. The Parties expect to obtain the relevant approvals before the end of this year.
Its 20 million tonne oil refinery in Vadinar, which accounts for 9% of India’s total refining output, is supported by
a 1,010 MW captive power plant, and complemented by a network of around 2,700 operating retail outlets. The
additional Rs 13,300 crore that the new stakeholders have agreed to pay is for the 58 million tonne deep draft
port in Vadinar that helps in importing crude and exporting finished products. The Transaction is the single
largest tranche of foreign direct investment in India.
2. Highlights
All-cash deal expected to close in Q1 2017, subject to all necessary approvals
Essar plans to utilise proceeds from the stake sale to deleverage the Group and pave the way for
strategic consolidation and growth in other businesses
There is no non-compete fee under the transaction with Rosneft
Deal in line with government’s vision to attract high ticket foreign investments into India
Transaction includes 20 MTPA refinery at Vadinar (Gujarat) and all supporting infrastructure
Transaction also gives Rosneft and the UCP-Trafigura consortium access to Essar Oil’s pan-India network
of over 2,700 fuel retail outlets
Deal will help Essar deleverage almost 50% of its Rs 88,000 crore debt and substantially reduce interest
costs
D. Key Indicators
Rosneft picked up a 49% stake in Essar
Oil Limited Consortium of
Trafigura and UCP pick up another 49% stake
14.76
13.5
19.77
20.23
20.49
0 5 10 15 20
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Throughput (MMT)
4.53
4.23
7.96
7.98
8.37
0 2 4 6 8
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
CP GRM (USD/bbl)
-1500 -500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
PAT (Rs Crore) EBITDA (Rs Crore)
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WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS 2060 V.
In this section of report we have covered World Energy Scenarios of World Energy Council which has
collaborated with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute to explore likely futures for the Grand
Transition—a world of lower population growth, radical new technologies, greater environmental challenges, and
a shift in economic and geopolitical power—looking to 2060.
It presents three exploratory scenarios—Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock.
Modern Jazz represents a ‘digitally disrupted’, innovative, and market-driven world.
Unfinished Symphony is a world in which more ‘intelligent’ and sustainable economic growth models
emerge as the world drives to a low carbon future.
Hard Rock which explores the consequences of weaker and unsustainable economic growth with inward-
looking policies.
A. Key Findings
The world’s primary energy demand growth will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030
due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies.
Demand for electricity will double to 2060. Meeting this demand with cleaner energy sources will require
substantial infrastructure investments and systems integration to deliver benefits to all consumers.
The phenomenal rise of solar and wind energy will continue at an unprecedented rate and create both new
opportunities and challenges for energy systems.
Demand peaks for coal and oil have the potential to take the world from “Stranded Assets” to “Stranded
Resources”.
Transitioning global transport forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to decarbonise
future energy systems.
Limiting global warming to no more than a 2°C increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far
beyond already pledged commitments, and with very high carbon prices.
Global cooperation, sustainable economic growth, and technology innovation are needed to balance the
Energy Trilemma.
B. Factors Shaping World Energy
Most significant factors that shaped world energy’s performance and how the interaction of four key drivers
influenced energy outcomes:
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Population and labour force growth
New technologies and productivity
Environmental priorities
International governance and geo-political relationships
1. Population
By 2035, Asia has become the dominant economic region. China is the number-one economy in the world, the
largest global manufacturer and is in transition to consumption—and services-led growth. India rises as the
world’s most populous country and the third-largest economy. Asian middle-class consumption reflects two-
thirds of the global market. Global financial institutions such as the WTO, IMF and World Bank are increasingly
pressured to reform and better represent the diversifying global economic landscape.
C. India’s Energy Outlook - Coal
Despite high economic growth and growing energy demand, especially in developing nations, the role of coal in
primary energy declines at a pace of 0.4% p.a. from 2014 to 2030. Declines are seen all over the world except for
India, where 288 MTOE of coal are added to the primary energy supply in the period. Growth in India is offset by
declines of 350 MTOE in NAM and EUR, where coal peaks before 2020. In India, coal in primary energy peaks at
989 MT in 2040, coal settles at 660 MT in 2060.
Coal production is dominated by China and India throughout the period, with China maintaining its position as
the number-one producer of coal globally. Still, India makes significant strides, adding 400 MTOE of production
from 2014 to 2060.
D. Outlook Gas -India
Beyond 2030, China and India account for more than 50% of growth in gas consumption, with their combined
primary gas demand totalling over 1,221 BCM in 2060. Natural gas in TPES grows at 5.7% p.a. in Sub Saharan
Africa in the second half of the period, reaching 347 BCM and driving 20% of global gas growth from 2030 to
2060.
539 717
950 989 847
660 539 581 651
499 303
201
539 694
986
1251 1340 1374
0
500
1000
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
MT India Coal Outlook - WEC
MODERN JAZZ COAL UNFINISHED SYMPHONY COAL HARD ROCK COAL
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MMSCMD 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Modern Jazz 131 215.9 346.72 596 934 1262
Unfinished Symphony 131 215.9 407.55 687 897 1034
Hard Rock 131 209.9 398.42 575 736 985.4
Projected CAGR for 2014-60 for
different scenarios - Modern Jazz
is 5%, Unfinished Symphony is
4.6% and Hard Rock Gas is
4.5%.Projected numbers for 2060
for India in mmscmd is as above.
E. Outlook Oil - India
The market re-balances in the face of lower oil prices via higher demand and lower supply. With the OPEC
holding production levels and non-OPEC supply costs coming down, oil prices settle at an affordable equilibrium.
This leads to growth of oil in TPES through 2030 at a pace of 1.1% p.a. By then, China has added 8.2 mb/d of
consumption and India has added 3.6 mb/d. The transport and petrochemical sectors are the main drivers of
growth, with demand for oil in aviation growing at the fastest pace to 2030.
F. Comparison of China, India & World
1. Coal
Modern Jazz Coal By Region - Mtoe
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 3,902 3,831 3,636 3,102 2,303 1,832 -1.60%
China 2,017 2,080 1,919 1,681 1,239 937 -1.70%
India 377 502 665 692 593 462 0.40%
Unfinished Symphony Coal By Region - Mtoe
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 3,902 3,509 3,062 2,058 1,063 724 -3.60%
China 2,017 1,912 1,648 1,158 602 384 -3.50%
India 377 407 456 349 212 141 -2.10%
48 79
127
218
341
461
48 79
149
251
327 377
48 77
145 210
269
360
0
200
400
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
BCM India Gas Outlook - WEC
MODERN JAZZ GAS UNFINISHED SYMPHONY GAS HARD ROCK GAS
4 5
7 8
9 9
4 5
7 8
9 9
4 4
6 7
8 9
0
5
10
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
MBl/D India Oil Outlook - WEC
MODERN JAZZ OIL UNFINISHED SYMPHONY OIL HARD ROCK OIL
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Hard Rock Coal By Region - Mtoe
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 3,902 3,932 3,923 4,044 3,524 3,194 -0.40%
China 2,017 2,162 1,945 1,935 1,448 1,159 -1.20%
India 377 486 690 876 938 962 2.10%
2. Oil
Modern Jazz Oil By Region - Mb/D
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 86 94 103 99 91 80 -0.20%
China 11 14 19 17 14 12 0.20%
India 4 5 7 8 9 9 1.90%
Unfinished Symphony Oil By Region - Mb/D
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 86 92 94 88 78 65 -0.60%
China 11 14 16 15 12 10 -0.20%
India 4 5 7 8 9 9 2.00%
Hard Rock Oil By Region - Mb/D
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 86 92 101 104 104 103 0.40%
China 11 12 15 16 15 15 0.70%
India 4 4 6 7 8 9 1.90%
3. Gas
Modern Jazz Gas By Region - Mtoe
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 2,891 3,417 3,927 4,515 4,974 4,968 1.20%
China 155 238 322 475 692 703 3.30%
India 43 71 114 196 307 415 5.00%
Unfinished Symphony Gas By Region - Mtoe
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 2,891 3,375 3,554 3,637 3,822 3,604 0.50%
China 155 221 318 415 647 563 2.80%
India 43 71 134 226 295 340 4.60%
Hard Rock Gas By Region - Mtoe
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
CAGR
(2014-60)
World 2,891 3,392 3,727 3,811 4,231 4,370 0.90%
China 155 217 252 259 453 426 2.20%
India 43 69 131 189 242 324 4.50%
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UNDERGROUND STORAGE OF NATURAL GAS (UGS) VI.
Gas storage is principally used to meet load variations. Gas injected into storage during periods of low demand
and withdrawn from storage during periods of peak demand. Natural gas storage is also used by industry
participants for commercial reasons; storing gas when prices are low, and withdrawing and selling it when prices
are high. Natural gas is stored underground primarily in three reservoir types: depleted oil and gas fields,
depleted aquifers, and in salt beds and salt caverns. Natural gas may also be stored above ground in refrigerated
tanks, as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In the U.S., large storages
are provided by the
private sector, also in
order to keep production
flows constant. Japan is
almost totally dependent
on LNG imports. It has
substantial LNG storage,
but its gas markets are
fragmented. Australia is
also a self-sufficient and
actually an exporting
country. Storage is just
one way of providing such
gas to be supplied in
emergencies, which have in fact never been called for yet.
A. Europe
Between 2010 and April 2015, storage capacity in Europe steadily grew from 118 to 137 bcm of working gas
volume. In Germany,
Italy, Austria and the
United Kingdom,
several projects with
a phased increase of
capacity were
completed. In 2015,
the Bergermeer gas
storage facility in the
Netherlands went on
line with a capacity of
4.1 bcm.
Mandatory storage
obligations exist in
the majority of
sample countries: Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Poland, Spain, Czech Republic and Hungary. Italy and Hungary also
require strategic storage. Only three out of 11 sample countries have no Security of Supply related Storage
measures (SRSMs): the UK, Germany and Austria. 56% of totally available EU storage capacity lies in countries
with mandatory storage obligations while 44 % is not restricted by any obligations. In France, the obligation also
concerns withdrawal capacity, as since 2014 suppliers have to ensure they hold a minimum withdrawal capacity,
in addition to gas stocks. The total amount of mandatory storage is computed differently in each country.
The graph below show that underground storages have generally been well exploited and are an important tool
for covering the seasonal swing, in different scenarios of gas demand and gas prices. The availability of stored
Gas Volume by Countries (bcm) (Source: IGU)
UGS Working Gas Volume by Storage operators (Bcm) (Source: IGU)
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gas was an important tool to face
geopolitical crisis during past years, also
considering the decreasing domestic
production and the increasing dependency
of the gas supply by non-EU countries.
1. Underground storage sites for natural gas in Europe
This map represents the working gas
capacities of underground storage
sites in millions of m3 and the number
of storages in each European country.
The total working gas capacity in
Europe today totals around 148 billion
m3, including 108 billion m3 in the
UE-28. Global storage capacity is
currently estimated at over 360 billion
m3.
France, Germany and Italy can hold
approximately 1/3 of their annual
requirement in stock. These countries
store natural gas in a unique logistics
chain to maintain a balance between
supply and demand.
Over 50% of total storage capacity in
EU28 is concentrated in three
countries: Germany, Italy and France.
The same three countries have the
highest concentration of storage sites
and together account for 54% of the total number of facilities in EU28.
Country Number
of sites
Working gas
capacity (million of
m3) (Total)
Aquifer Salt
cavity
Depleted
field
Other (oil field with
gas cap, rock cavern,
LNG peak shaving)
EU28 152 107,886 24 52 74 3
Europe 174 147,662 29 55 88 3
Source: GSE, MEDDTL (2016)
B. United States & Canada
Underground storage of natural gas is an integral component of the nation’s energy system. Natural gas
consumption is highest during the winter time and lowest during mild-weather months. Natural gas storage
enables supply to match demand on any given day throughout the year.
The United States and Canada have approximately 4.72 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of working natural gas storage
capacity (3.9 Tcf in the U.S. and 0.82 Tcf in Canada). This volume is equal to approximately 60 days of average
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daily North American consumption. In Canada storage capacity is equivalent to approximately 30 per cent of
domestic annual natural gas demand.
1. Natural Gas Working Storage Levels
(Source: American Gas Association) Energy Information Administration, “Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, History,” January 8, 2016.
The chart above shows how
storage fluctuates with the
weather. During the mild winter
of 2012, the gas withdrawn from
storage was far more moderate
(see black arrow). In contrast, in
2014, the year of the Polar
Vortex, natural gas storage was
“drawn down” sharply (see grey
arrow). But even in the mildest of
winters, such as 2012, natural gas
withdrawals from storage were vital to meeting winter natural gas demand.
North American natural gas market is well supplied and that there should be ample natural gas in storage to
meet any unexpected changes in demand next winter, which should provide some market stability and help
moderate the volatility of prices. Unusually cold weather can be a strong driver of natural gas demand and
prices. As witnessed in 2013-2014, an unusually cold winter tends to put upward pressure on natural gas prices,
while a mild winter tends to lead to weaker demand, which can moderate or even reduce prices and their
volatility.
2. Where Natural Gas Underground Storage Fields are Located
In Canada, the majority of storage is located in Western
Canada (472 bcf), with Alberta having the greatest volume,
and smaller storage capacity in place in British Columbia and
Saskatchewan. Western Canadian storage is used primarily for
managing producer and pipeline supplies. Storage in Eastern
Canada is located primarily in Southwestern Ontario, one of
the most significant North American storage hubs in North
America, and is used almost exclusively by end use customers
to meet winter demand in the provinces of Ontario and
Quebec. These Ontario facilities have a working capacity of
just over 241 bcf. To put it into perspective this is equivalent to about 72,000 GWh of electricity or enough to
power just over 10 million households in Ontario for one year. There is also a small amount of storage capacity in
Quebec and New Brunswick in the form of LNG storage and a facility is under development in Nova Scotia to
build a salt cavern facility for operation by 2017.
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C. Asia Pacific
Japan, South Korea, and China are the three largest importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world,
accounting for more than half of global LNG imports in 2015. Key elements of Japan’s overall gas security policy
are: diversifying its long-term supply contract portfolio; ensuring that long-term contracts include flexibility to
increase imports during an emergency; and using voluntary commercial LNG stocks in industry. Even though
industry is not obliged to hold any emergency gas stocks, industry has commercial stocks equivalent to about 20
to 30 days of consumption. The five
underground gas storage sites in Japan
are all located in the Niigata prefecture
and are even more important assets than
before.
As per IEA 2014, Japan has no
underground facilities to store natural gas
in its gaseous state. Japan has 31
operational LNG receiving terminals with
a total LNG storage capacity of over 16
mcm (equivalent to around 10 bcm of
natural gas storage capacity).
(Source:LNG Journal.com published in 18th January,2012)
1. Korea
Korea has no underground natural gas storage facilities. Almost all natural gas storage facilities are in the form of
LNG storage tanks and their ancillary facilities. An innovative method of liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage in
lined rock caverns has been developed to provide a safe and cost-effective solution. According to a report LNG
accounted for about 21.4 percent of South Korea's power generation in 2014.
2. China
In 2014 China had 25 operational gas storage facilities with a total capacity of 12.3 bcm, compared with demand
of 179 bcm in 2014. As per IEA 2014, CNPC brought into operation the country’s largest underground gas
storage facility in Hutob in July 2013. This facility has a combined storage capacity of 10.7 bcm for the West-East
Gas Pipeline. CNPC has been constructing five other large gas storage facilities. Sinopec’s second gas storage
facility has also been developed in Zhongyuan, with a capacity of 10.4 bcm, in addition to its existing capacity of
around 0.5 bcm. It is reported that China has plans to construct over 35 underground storages in total to boost
its storage capacity to 35 bcm by 2015 and to 60 bcm by 2020.
Facts as of 2015:
Total Number of Existing Fields =
415 in 30 States
[Salt Caverns = 39
Aquifers = 47
Depleted Fields = 329]
Total Wells under service = ~ 17500
Total Storage Capacity =
9,230,840 mcf (261388 mcm)
Total Working Gas Capacity =
4,800,671 mcf (135939 mcm)
~ 20% of all natural gas consumed during
the winter is supplied by UGS.
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Commercial incentives for new gas storage are lacking. The commercial case for underground gas storage in
China is unclear. Storage fees are charged as part of pipeline transmission costs and not broken out separately in
the tariffs levied by CNPC, which operates most of the national pipeline network.
3. Australia & New Zealand
As per IEA, 2011 report, there are 4 underground natural gas storage facilities in Australia with a total capacity of
1.3 bcm of working gas. The Dandenong LNG Storage Facility in Victoria provides peak shaving and security of
supply services for the Victorian transmission system as well as supporting wholesale trade in LNG used as fuel
for transport vehicles. Further Natural Gas Information 2016 edition of IEA shows the updated data as per the
table.
The Ahuroa Gas Storage (AGS) facility, New Zealand’s first underground natural gas storage facility, was officially
opened in May 2011. Owned by Contact Energy, the facility has a maximum drawdown capacity of 45 terajoules
per day. The AGS is located close to Contact Energy’s 380 megawatt (MW) Taranaki Combined Cycle (TCC) power
station and a 200 MW gas-fired peaking power station located near the TCC at Stratford. (Source: IEA, 2014)
D. Iran & Azerbaijan
Iran began underground gas storage in 2008. Gas storage project is a national strategic plan. Serajeh gas
storage facility was Iranˈs first project. By producing 10 mcm per day in winter, it played a crucial role in meeting
the countryˈs gas demand. Shourijeh gas storage facility was the country’s second gas storage project, which was
launched in 2010.
Azerbaijan has two existing underground gas storage facilities (UGS), both located at Garadag and Galmaz, 20
and 75 km respectively to the south-west Baku. Galmaz is a sandstone reservoir with relatively dry gas, very little
condensate content and no significant water content. The Garadag UGS has also been developed in the depleted
gas/condensate Garadag field, which comprises two reservoirs. Total design storage capacity is around 3.5 bcm:
1.5 at Galmaz and 2.0 at Garadag. In 2011, 1.45 bcm of gas has been injected in Galmaz and 1.78 bcm to
Garadag.
SOCAR to build first liquefied gas storage with capacity of 150 mcm in Nakhchivan. 300 mcm underground gas
storage is intended to be constructed in Nanotsminda oil and gas deposit in Georgia. Estimated cost amounts
USD 150 mn. Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs Amir Hossein Zamani Nia earlier expressed
willingness of his county to pump its gas to the underground gas storages of Azerbaijan in the nearest future.
Note:
The data and information in the report is sourced from websites and documents available in public
domain and doesn’t purport to be official view of government or any organization. Sincere efforts have
been made to present correct data; however, errors and omissions, if any, are regretted and the same may
please be brought to the notice of Energy Desk for necessary corrective action.