Food Harvest 2020 & the Environment?

Pat Murphy(RPO Schulte, T Donnellan, D O’hUallachain, R Creamer, R Fealy, N Farrelly & C O’Donoghue)

Food Harvest 2020

Ambition 2020:

Increase:

• primary output by €1.5bn

• value-added by €3bn

• exports to €12bn (+42%)

Targets:

• Dairy: milk production +50%

• Beef: output value +40%

• Targets for sheep, pigs, food andenergy crops, forestry, marine

To Deliver Smart Green Growth –

• Constraint to agriculture

• Central to the effort to promote Irish food

• Market Access by achieving standards

• Premium Price - consumer preference

Opportunity for??

Challenge

Challenge

To Deliver Smart Green Growth –

Ireland in good starting position in terms of itsgreen image and in relation to a number of keyenvironmental criteria

Starting position: GHG

Dairy GHG footprint: second smallest in EU

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/livestock-gas/full_text_en.pdf

Starting position: GHG

Beef GHG footprint: 5th smallest in EU

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/livestock-gas/full_text_en.pdf

Starting position: water quality

Surface water: trophic status

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-nitrates/pdf/swd.pdf

Challenge

• But… environmental targetsbecoming more stringent

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ag

ricul

tura

lGH

Gem

issi

ons

(MtC

O2e

q)

Historic data

FH Scenario2005 level

Green targets: GHG

Decline in animalnumbers and

fertiliser

Naturalrestructuring ofnational herd

Maximumreductionpotentialusing BAT

-10% target

-20% target

-30% target

Source: http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2011/61/61_ClimateBillSubmission.pdf

Green targets: Water Quality

Source: http://www.epa.ie/downloads/pubs/water/waterqua/WaterQuality0709.pdf

2010-'12 2013-'15

But: Legacylag-times will

delay thisrecovery

2010-'12 2013-'15 2016-'18 2019-'22 2023-'25

Role foragriculture,

forestry,WWTPs, septic

tanks, etc.

Green targets: Biodiversity

Source:http://www.npws.ie/publications/euconservationstatus/NPWS_2007_Conservation_Status_Report.pdf

• Good baseline(scientific evidence?)

• 14% of areadesignated asNATURA2000 sites

• But trends arenegative

Green targets: Soil Quality

Proposed Soil Framework Directive:

• Stalled?

• Elements included in GAEC

• Specific target: 2% organic carbon

Challenge in relation to soil which need to be addressesd:

• Falling soil fertility

• Stagnation in Yields

• Role of soils in protecting water quality

• Role of soils in GHG – Emissions and Sequestration

• Role in maintaining Bio-diversity

The Question

2010-'12 2013-'15 2016-'18 2019-'22 2023-'25

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ag

r icu

ltur a

lGH

Gem

i ssi

ons

(Mt C

O2e

q)

Historic dataFH Scenario

2005 level

Can we meet Food Harvest targets and environmental targets ?

What risks does environmental regulation pose to theachievement of Food Harvest 2020 objectives

H2020 Environmental Risks

RisksConsequences

Mitigation

WaterQuality

GreenHouse Gas

Soil FertilityBio-diversity

RISK 1 Failure to meet targets for improvement of water quality

Possible Consequences

• Imposition of more stringent national regulation

• Supplementary measures in non compliantcatchments

• Loss of derogation ??

Leading to

Failure to meet FH2020 Targets

Action For Farmers• Continued Improvements in Nutrient Management• Continued reduction in point sources• Involvement in local efforts to improve own catchment water quality

based on understanding of local problems

RISK 1 Failure to meet targets for improvement of water quality

Action For Knowledge Transfer• Better Integration of environmental and technical advice• More usable / understandable nutrient advice• Focus on improved farmer education and awareness• Improved dissemination of emerging Research

RISK 1 Failure to meet targets for improvement of water quality

Action For Research• Continue work of Agricultural Catchments Programme

• Sources & Pathways• Behaviour & Co-operation

• Nutrient requirements and efficiency• Research on sedimentation

Action for Policy Makers / Regulators• Balance of “Carrot and Stick”

• Development of better understanding among farmers• Develop co-operative approach on a local basis

• Targeting to achieve specific objectives

RISK 2 Failure to meet targets for the reduction of Agricultural GHGs

Possible Consequences ???

• Financial – Purchase of Carbon Credits

• Production Limits

• Barriers to entry

• Loss of markets and damage reputation

Leading to

• Failure to meet FH2020 Targets And/or Loss of income

Action For Farmers

• Focus on reducing GHG emissions• Improvements in efficiency through adoption of best practice

• EBI, Grazing season, Grass utilisation• Slurry and Chemical Fertiliser Management

• Energy Efficiency• Land use – Sequestration and Forestry & Bio-energy

RISK 2 Failure to meet targets for the reduction of Agricultural GHGs

Action For Knowledge Transfer• Supporting efficiency improvement

• Improving Carbon efficiency• Leadership Role

• Integrating GHG message into advice – an extra incentive• Education and awareness

RISK 2 Failure to meet targets for the reduction of Agricultural GHGs

Action For Research• Input to National Inventory (NI)• Identifying and quantifying mitigation strategies Recognition in NI• Knowledge Based Policy

Action for Policy Makers / Regulators• International:- How do we count carbon

• Credit in relation to Sequestration, Farm Forestry and Bio-energy• Carbon Leakage• Targets – General and Agricultural

• Clear Support for mitigation measures

Carbon Navigator - Summary

0

5

10Grazing Season Length

Herd EBI

Chemical Nitrogen UsageSlurry Storage and Application

Energy Usage

Current ScoreTarget 2015Top 10%

P Indices in Q1 Samples 2008-2011

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011

%o

fsa

mp

les

Index 1

Index 2

Index 3

Index 4

Risk 3 Failure to Maintain Soil Fertility at adequate levels

• Similar situation with K

• 50% Soil pH below 6

Risk 3 Failure to Maintain Soil Fertility at adequate levels

Possible Consequences

• Loss of production

• Inefficient use of nutrients

Leading to• Increased difficulty in meeting meet FH2020 Targets

Action For Farmers

• Effective Nutrient Management• Test Soils• Get pH sorted• Use organic fertiliser effectively

• Use Chemical Fertiliser to improve fertility and output• Stay within statutory limits & reduce environmental impact

Risk 3 Failure to Maintain soil fertility at adequate levels

Action For Knowledge Transfer• Improve farmers knowledge and understanding of Nutrient Management• Promote Best Practice

• Soil Analysis NMP• Improve methodology to bridge gap between statutory and agronomic

• Maximise value of scarce resource

Risk 3 Failure to Maintain soil fertility at adequate levels

Action For Research• Provide Scientific basis for Improved nutrient advice

• Soil Type• Production Levels

• Improve nutrient efficiency• Contribute to policy

Action for Policy Makers / RegulatorsEnsure balance between environmental and agronomic objectives

RISK 4 Failure to meet targets to halt Biodiversity Loss

Possible Consequences

• Loss of Biodiversity

• Damage to Green Image

• Increased regulation – National and Local

Leading to

• Increased difficulty in meeting meet FH2020Targets

Action For Farmers• Contribute to improving bio-diversity where possible on the farm• Take up of Agri-Environmental Schemes

Action For Knowledge Transfer

• Education of farmers on importance of biodiversity and onways to enhance habitats

• Support take up of Agri-Environmental Schemes• Promote bio-diversity practice adoption

RISK 4 Failure to Halt Biodiversity Loss

Action For Research• Identification of Bio-diversity priorities• Providing baseline information• Identifying effective & cost efficient strategies• Evaluation of impacts

Action for Policy Makers / Regulators ??• Move to Implement Bio-diversity Action Plan• Targeted approach to specific problems• Effective incentivisation to maintain / improve habitats

RISK 4 Failure to Halt Biodiversity Loss

Outcomes• Valuable Food Ireland brand• Increased value of Green Product Farmer• Access to markets

Opportunity: Green Image based on Sustainability

The Challenge• To proactively demonstrate the sustainability of Irish Agricultural

produce

Opportunity: Green Image based on Sustainability

EnvironmentalSustainability

Waste

Energy

Nutrient

Social

AnimalWelfare

Water

Soil

GHG

Bio-diversity

Community

Pressure fromMulti-national

Buyers to demonstrate

Achieving Green Image requires us demonstrate high performance inthese criteria at a national level

Environmental sustainability is a key pillar of Food Harvest 2020

“Green credentials”: Ireland in good starting position

Challenge: meet growth targets and environmental targets

Real risks to achievement of FH2020 Can we overcome ?

Targeted mix of efficiency, intensification and expansion

Increased focus by the commercial farming sector, theiradvisers/consultants and researchers on environmental concerns

Need to enable / empower farmers to improve environmental outcomes

Effective research to develop technical solutions and inform policy

Co-operative approach across the agri-food industry to enhance theoutcomes of regulation

Conclusions

Rational policy frameworks mixing regulation and incentives Build strong foundation on regulation

Use other tools in the toolbox – e.g.DEP will probably prove to have been the most effective policy intervention

in reducing the carbon footprint of Milk

Ag Catchments Programme - farmer engagement contributes significantly toachieving positive outcomes

Actively work to prevent bureaucratic overload

Conclusions