food security 2

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Food Security

ENSC 315 Food security, agriculture and environment

January 19, 2010

Announcements

New season coming NFU

Global food security

Next week

Writing assignment

Millennium Development Goals

Adopted by 189 countries

September 2000

Millennium Development Goals

Adopted by 189 countries

September 2000

The eight MDGs break down into 21 quantifiable targetsthat are measured by 60 indicators.


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Target 1:Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of peoplewhose income is less than $1 a dayHigher food prices may push 100 million people deeper intopovertyConflict leaves many displaced and impoverished

Target 2:Achieve full and productive employment and decentwork for all, including women and young peopleFullem lo ment remains a distant ossibil itLow-paying jobs leave one in five developing countryworkers mired in povertyHalf the worlds workforce toil in unstable, insecure jobs

Target 3:Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of peoplewho suffer from hungerRising food prices threaten limited gains in alleviating childmalnutrition

1990 845 million 16%

2005 873 million 13%

2009 1020 million 15%

FAOstat

Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

1990 845 million 16%

2005 873 million 13%

2009 1020 million 15%

FAOstat

Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physicaland economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food tomeet their dietary needs and food preferences for an activeand healthy life.

The World Food Summit, 1996


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The five As of food security

availablea sustainable farm communityeconomic, social and physical infrastructure

supportive of agriculturenational policy conditions related to trade

accessibleresources to produce ones own foodfood in the marketinformation and income to enable purchase

ade uatesustainable environmental conditionssufficient quantity and qualityeducation and information about healthy diets

acceptableculturally acceptable food

safe and healthy food

agencypolicies that balance the needs of farmers andconsumers, rural and urban, rich and poor

Canada Plan -Summer 2009

An available and accessible food supply - an enabling environment

Recognition of the essential nature ofand requirements for food production

Sense of social justice

Responsive and transparentovernance and administration

Finger millet, Karandamalai, South India

Availability - the global scene

Do we produce sufficient food to feedthe 6.8 billion people in the world?

1.0E+09

1.5E+09

2.0E+09

2.5E+09

production

/tonnes

Changes in global food supply - cereals

2008 2.5 Gt

2009 - ~2.23 Gt

Historic increase is 2.3 % pa

0.0E+00

5.0E+08

Year

Cereal

1961 2007

FAO - 2008

Soybeans and maize, Shandong, China


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Global food availability

Food grains (cereals) the basic commodity

Population 6.8 billion (6.8 x 109)

Food grains 2.2 bi ll ion tonnes (2.2 x 109 t)

+ other food items

- transformation, waste, yearly variations

Availability = 2.2 x 109 t 6.8 x 109= 0.32 t (320 kg) of cereals for each person

for one year = 0.88 kg for one day

In terms of kilocalories ~ 3300 kcal/kg x 0.88 kg= 2900 kcal

In terms of protein ~ 8/100 x 0.88 kg = 70 g

Peasant farmer near Zibo, China

2600

2220

3010

2100

2690

3500

2000

2500

3000

3500

kcal per capita

Per capita global food energy supply

0

500

1000

1500

East Asia South Asia West Asia /

North Africa

Sub

Saharan

Africa

Latin

America /

Caribbean

North

America /

Europe

FAO -1992

Changes in global food supply

Historical growth rate 2.3 % pa

Current population growth rate 1.2

Increased caloric intake 0.8

Changing food preferences 0.6

2020 population ~ 8 billion,6.7 billion in low incomecountries (LIC)

Required increase 2.6 % pa

Credit Suisse - 2007

Paddy field near Madurai, South India

Accessibility

Thinking of equity

Land to grow food

Mone to purchase food


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Global food undernourishment (2009 figures)

International Food PolicyResearch Institute 40 % ofIndias children are malnourished;2.5 million deaths each year dueto malnourishment; 1 in 5 ofdeaths due to malnourishment!

IFPRI -2008

UndernutritionThe result of prolonged low levels of food intake and/or low absorption of foodconsumed. Generally applied to energy (or protein and energy) deficiency, butit may also relate to vitamin and mineral deficiencies.Undernourishment or Chronic HungerThe status of persons, whose food intake regularly provides less than theirminimum energy requirements.The average minimum energy requirement per person is about 1800 kcal perday. The exact requirement is determined by a persons age, body size,activity level and physiological conditions such as illness, infection, pregnancyand lactation.MalnutritionA broad term for a range of conditions that hinder good health, caused byinadequate or unbalanced food intake or from poor absorption of foodconsumed. It refers to both undernutrition (food deprivation) and overnutrition(excessive food intake in relation to energy requirements).Food securityExists when all people at all times have both physical and economic access tosufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for an activeand healthy life.Food insecurityExists when people lack access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritiousfood, and therefore are not consuming enough for an active and healthy life.This may be due to the unavailability of food, inadequate purchasing power, or

inappropriate utilization at household level.

Hunger as undernourishment low income countries

average % hungry GDPkcal / day $US

Bolivia 2170 23 1200

Cuba 3280


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current value ~175

The ability to purchase food

FAO January 16, 2010

historic value ~115

World food price index

Causes????

Causes of higher prices

production shortfalls 2004-5, 2005-6, (partial recovery2006-9)

petroleum prices

dere ulation and s eculation

biofuel demands

increasing wealth

consumption patterns

Hunger hotspots 2010 WFP

Chad

Ethiopia

Kenya

Somalia

Sudan

Limited rainfall, poor supplemental water supply, limitedeconomic resources, poor road conditions for delivery ofsupplies, insecurity and violence

http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/ak340e/ak340e02.htm

Food program in Kenya

Yemen

Food problems related to oil, severe water shortages, 90 % used foragriculture, crops changed to cash crops, most significantly qat.

Qat in Samaa, Yemen


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Food security in Canada Food insecurity is an issue for many Canadians

Between 2000 and 2003, 10 15% of Canadianhouseholds reported experiencing at least one aspect offood insecurity in the previous year

Rates of reported food insecurity are higher in FirstNations and Inuit communities, especially in the northand in isolated areas

Poverty and foodsecurity are very closelyconnected

For many families, cost of a nutritious food basketexceeds resources after shelter and other basic needsare met

841 640 Canadians used a food bank in one month in2004; 40% of them were children

Mary Bush, Director GeneralOffice of Nutrition Policy and PromotionHealth CanadaFood Security Assembly

October 1, 2005

What is needed to ensure that the total global production offoods especially cereals be increased? This will also maintaincosts to the consumer at a level that makes food accessible.

The fundamental need - more food

Bring new land under cultivation.

Increase yields.

Ensure that cultivated land is used appropriately.

More land???

Tota l est imates of cul ti vable land 15 to 19 mil li on km2

Current land cultivated ~ 9 million km2

TheEarths terrestrialenvironmenta.

Area/

106 km2 %

Total land area 148 100

Ice-covered land 17.2 12

Arable land 14.8 10

Pasture and meadow 31.5 21

Forest 40.9 28

Otherb 43.6 29

a Most of the data are taken from the FAO productionyearbook, Vol. 39, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome; 1986.

b Th e Ot he r c a te go ry i n cl ud es mo un ta in ou s l an d, d e se rt s,and som e land that i s potent ia l ly ava il ab le for pas ture or d irec t foodproduction.

Angus cattle near Drumheller, Alberta


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Where?

Pasture land near Cranbrook, BC

Cultivable land

Land in use as a percentage of land potentially available

Latin America 19 %

Sub-Saharan Africa 22

East Asia 63

North Africa, West Asia 87

ou s a

FAOSTAT - 2001

Most of the potential new land is in Africa andSouth America

In India, land under cereals will fall from 0.15 ha pcto 0.06 ha pc in the next 40 years

3 t / ha of cereal ..3 x 0.06 = 0.18 t pc pa =180 kg pc pa = 1700 kcal pc daily

Village garden, Shandong, China

Tota l est imates of cultivable land 15 to 19 million km2

Current land cultivated ~ 9 million km2

Availability of cultivable land may be an overestimate

Cultivation has been extended onto steep slopes, frequently withoutadequate soil conservation (eg Jamaica, Malawi)

Cultivation has become common in semi-arid zones with a highdrought risk, often in pastoral areas (eg Kenya, the Sahel)

Illegal cultivation of protected areas like forest reserves, national parks(eg the Philippines)

Anthony Young, Is there really spare land? A critique of estimatesof available cultivable land in developing countries.Environment, Development and Sustainability1: 318, 1999.

Arid land near Jodhpur India

Less land???

FAO World agriculture


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Less land???


Where???

Ukhimath, Uttaranchal India

Less land???


Where???

Indonesia

Resettlement from Java to Sumatra and Borneo

Land unsuitable for rice cultivation

acidic

low in organic matter

poor fertility

sub ect to erosion

Better suited to tree crops coconut, oil palm, cacao

Maximum urban growth inthe Golden Horseshoe

Less growth, but mostsignificant in Class 1 to3 soil areas


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Increase productivity of the land through increased yields???

Wheat, near Tarn Taran, Punjab, India

87 bu = 87 x 25.4 / 1000 = 2.2 t

Area and yield units in agriculture

For corn, a yield of 87 bushels (bu) per ac is reported. In thedata sheet provided with the book of readings, 1 bu of cornweighs 25.4 kg

Calculate the yield in t / ha

This is the yield in 1 ac

The yield per ha is 2.2 x 2.5 = 5.5 t / ha

Dairy herd, the Drakensberg Foothills, South Africa

Yields of cereals

Actual yields (2007, FAOSTAT)

USA corn 9.5 t/ha

Canada wheat 2.4 t/ha

India rice 3.2 t/ha

Punjab 1980s 90s wheat/rice rotation 14 t/ha

LIC countries, all cereals (avg over several years) 2.6 t/ha

Potential yields of up to 25 t/ha of some food grains are possiblein a one year period

USA single corn crop 24 t/ha

China triple crop, wheat + two rice 24 t/ha

Requires optimum temperature, sunlight, moisture, nutrition

FAOSTAT

http://www.fao.org/corp/statistics/en/

Choose FAOSTAT

Choose prodSTAT

Choose crops

Select country, crop, element*, year (more than one possible)element* means yield, total production, or area

Yields are given in hectograms per hectare (hg/ha)

for example, 45 000 hg/ha = 4500 kg/ha = 4.5 t/ha

Production is given in tonnes


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Declining yields a mixed message

Tanzania Maize

Njombe Plateau in the Southern Highlands

Wabena ethnic group consume ~ 225 kg of maize pc pa

Traditional rotation traditional maize, sweet potatoes, finger millet, beans

Recommended package flat land planting, increased sowing rates, NP,endosulfan to control stalk borer

Yield decline from an average 4.0 t/ha 1981 to 1.1 t/ha in 2000

i i i ifi i i i f i f i i k, , u ,

Andrew Wardell, consultant, Personal report

Biodiverse agriculture, Perumalai, South India

Declining yields a mixed message

Bangladesh - Rice

Rice yields stagnant or declining

related to increased monocropping intensity, formation of plowpan, reducedorganic matter (less FYM additions), need for greater inputs offertilizer, possible nutrient imbalance

Bangladesh Rice Research Institute

Post harvest losses

10 to 37 % beforethe products reach

the consumer!

A recent review of food waste in the United Statesreported that 27 percent of the food available for peopleto consume in the United States, were lost in threestages of the marketing processretailing, food service,and consumers.

World Resources, 1999Winterthur market, Switzerland

The latest numbers I have are from February.Leonard hall generated 2.96 tonnes (110 kg per day)of organic waste. Approximately 80-85% is whatcomes back on trays, the rest would be kitchentrimmings. During that time we served approximately16 500 meals. This breaks down to about 180 g perperson per meal

Phil Sparks SodexoMarch 11, 2009


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Farmers the human resource

Percent of population living on working farms

Canada (1930) 31 % of population

Canada (2008) 2.1 (11.2 % in Sask)

~

Nigeria ~ 70

China ~ 50

India ~ 70

Tamil farmer, India

Multifunctionality

Multifunctionality recognizes agriculture as a multi-outputactivity producing not only commodities (food, feed, fibres,fuels, medicinal products and ornamentals), but also non-commodity outputs such as environmental services,landscape amenities and cultural heritages.

The outlook

World hunger is increasing

High food prices share much of the blame

Poorest, landless and female-headed households are the hardest hit

Higher prices provide an opportunity

Need to ensure sustainability of the agricultural system

mu - rac approac o o o agr c u ure s requ r e

FAO - 2008

Kolli Hills, South India

You have heard Max Kaiser and seen the NFU video,both depicting farming activities in the Kingston area.

Which of these presentations points the way to the bestfuture for agriculture in this part of Canada?

A single side of one page, single spaced, written legibly

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